废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/08/25 华东 स्क 中部 东北 日期 华南 西南 2025/08/185 2254 2074 2256 2287 2173 ~ 2319 原点 2282 2025/08/19 2245 2328 2072 2249 2154 2025/08/20 2242 2328 2066 2243 2281 2152 2025/08/21 2241 2328 2061 2242 2281 2151 2025/08/22 | 容 2241 2328 2060 2243 原 2281 2152 ~ 后 A 环比 0 -1 1 0 0 1 沙钢重三价格 (含税) 镇江鸿泰剪切料价格 (不含税) ◆ 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ● 2025 ● 2022 ● 2023 ● 2024 ● 2025 3,600 4,200元/吨 3,900 3,300 3,600 3,000 3,300 2,700 3,000 2,400 2,700 2,100 2,400 2,100 1,800 品因H 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 1月 2月 3月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on August 25, 2025 [1][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 78,825 domestically and 9,636 on LME with a ratio of 8.17; March price is 78,630 domestically and 9,715 on LME with a ratio of 8.10. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.16 with a profit of 171.81, and spot export profit is - 396.63 [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22,190 domestically and 2,770 on LME with a ratio of 8.01; March price is 22,260 domestically and 2,773 on LME with a ratio of 6.03. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.65 with a profit of - 1,764.99 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20,710 domestically and 2,588 on LME with a ratio of 8.00; March price is 20,595 domestically and 2,586 on LME with a ratio of 7.99. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.45 with a profit of - 1,162.37 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot price is 118,400 domestically and 14,749 on LME with a ratio of 8.03. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.24 with a profit of - 1,806.58 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot price is 16,575 domestically and 1,942 on LME with a ratio of 8.57; March price is 16,790 domestically and 1,976 on LME with a ratio of 11.25. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.84 with a profit of - 524.17 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 110, 90, 70, 50 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 495, 887, 1289, 1691 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 15, 0, - 15, - 30 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 335, 455, 575 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 10, - 25, - 60, - 80 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 329, 444, 559 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 35, 45, 55, 80 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 209, 313, 418, 523 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 90, 100, 350, 600 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 800, and the theoretical spread is 5526 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are - 240 and - 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 360 and 812 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 70 and 85 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 177 and 306 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 170 and 205 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 182 and 293 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.53, 3.82, 4.68, 0.93, 1.23, 0.75 respectively, and for LME (three - continuous) are 3.48, 3.73, 4.91, 0.93, 1.32, 0.71 respectively [5].

Report Information - Report Title: Glass and Soda Ash Morning Report - Date: August 25, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the report. Summary by Category Glass - **Price Changes**: From August 15 to August 22, 2025, most glass prices decreased. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass at Shahe Safety dropped from 1164.0 to 1143.0, a weekly decrease of 21.0 and a daily decrease of 6.0. FG09 and FG01 contracts also showed weekly decreases, with FG09 down 49.0 and FG01 down 38.0 [2]. - **Production and Sales**: Shahe's glass production - sales ratio was 76, Hubei's was 130, East China's was 97, and South China's was 103. Shahe factory's production - sales were average, with traders' low - price sales at around 1120 and general shipments. Hubei's factory had better transactions at around 980 [2]. - **Profit and Cost**: North China's coal - fired glass profit decreased from 231.0 to 217.4, a weekly decrease of 13.7 and a daily decrease of 9.1. The cost increased slightly from 912.0 to 903.6. Natural gas - fired glass in North China and South China showed losses, and the losses of 09FG and 01FG盘面 natural gas profits also changed [2]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From August 15 to August 22, 2025, some soda ash prices decreased. For example, Shahe's heavy - soda ash price dropped from 1280.0 to 1220.0, a weekly decrease of 60.0 and a daily increase of 10.0. SA05, SA01, and SA09 contracts all showed weekly decreases [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The heavy - soda ash spot price at the Hebei delivery warehouse was around 1190, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1220. Both factories and delivery warehouses had a slight inventory build - up [2]. - **Profit and Cost**: North China's ammonia - soda process profit decreased from - 102.9 to - 156.7, a weekly decrease of 53.8 and a daily increase of 10.0. The North China's combined - soda process profit also decreased [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - AgResource forecasts Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach 176.5 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous year, with a 2% growth in planting area to 48.7 million hectares [1]. - MPOA data shows that Malaysia's crude palm oil production from August 1 - 20 increased by 3.03% compared to the same period last month, with varying growth rates in different regions [1]. - The US EPA approved 63, rejected 28, and partially approved 77 applications from small refineries for biofuel exemptions, with a total exemption quota of about 5.34 billion RINS, and only 13 pending applications remain [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to increase, and planting usually starts around September [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil production in early - August increased compared to the previous month [1]. - The US EPA dealt with small refinery biofuel exemption applications, and will soon collect public opinions on large refineries' compensation for exemption quotas [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil from August 18 - 22 are presented, showing price fluctuations during this period [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated. The inflection point in fundamentals has emerged, and the market is focusing on the ceasefire negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the US's measures to impose additional tariffs on India. After the "Trump-Putin meeting", Trump said he would not consider imposing additional tariffs on China for purchasing Russian oil for the time being, and the risk rating of sanctions policies has decreased. Attention is now on whether India will resume spot market purchases of Russian oil next week. Fundamentally, global oil inventories are accumulating, with a 303-million-barrel increase in US commercial crude oil inventories. Brazil and Guyana have reached record-high crude oil export volumes. The peak seasons for gasoline and jet fuel demand have passed. This year's CDU autumn maintenance is scheduled later than usual, and the planned maintenance volume is lower than in previous years, which supports crude oil feedstock demand. In the short term, the absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain volatile, with attention on Russian crude oil supply. In the second half of the year, crude oil is expected to weaken under a supply-demand surplus scenario [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Oil Price Data - From August 15 - 21, 2025, WTI crude oil prices increased by $0.81, BRENT by $0.83, and DUBAI by $0.28. NYMEX RB rose by 3.14, and HO increased by 4.55. SC increased by 8.10, and OMAN by 0.59. Singapore fuel oil 380CST's discount improved by 1.5, and HH natural gas increased by 1.02 [2]. b. Daily News - On August 22, the US Treasury sanctioned a Greek shipping company accused of assisting in transporting Iranian oil, expanding the Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign against Tehran. On August 21, the UK sanctioned an Iranian business tycoon Hossein Shamkhani and several key enterprises in his network, including a hedge fund. Ukrainian President Zelensky said he hopes to clarify the security guarantee framework within 7 - 10 days and hold bilateral and trilateral leader meetings later [2][3]. c. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending August 15, US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels (a 1.41% decrease), strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels (a 0.06% increase), and imports decreased by 423,000 barrels per day to 6.497 million barrels per day. US gasoline inventories decreased by 2.72 million barrels (expected -0.915 million barrels, previous -0.792 million barrels), and refined oil inventories increased by 2.343 million barrels (expected 0.928 million barrels, previous 0.714 million barrels). From August 8 - 14, the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries in China slightly increased. Refinery production of gasoline and diesel increased, while inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries declined, and that of local refineries increased [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall logic of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. This is mainly because the market pattern in September is loose, and the subsequent driving forces are weak. The current October contract is at a discount of about 450 points to the spot price, and there is still expected room for decline. The valuation of far - month contracts is unclear, more affected by driving forces, and due to low open interest, they are greatly influenced by macro and capital behaviors [2][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Information - **EC2508**: Yesterday's trading volume was 156, and the change in open interest was - 109 [2][16]. - **EC2510**: The closing price was 2125.0, down 2.21%. The base was 55.2 - 855.2, the trading volume was 35008, the open interest was 54293, and the change in open interest was 2566 [2][16]. - **EC2512**: The closing price was 1721.4, down 3.07%. The base was 458.8, the trading volume was 7519, and the open interest was 12209 [2][16]. - **EC2602**: The closing price was 1513.0, down 1.24%. The base was 667.2, the trading volume was 1211, the open interest was 4403, and the change in open interest was 35 [2][16]. - **EC2604**: The closing price was 1289.5, down 1.89%. The base was 890.7, the trading volume was 1160, the open interest was 5716, and the change in open interest was 89 [2][16]. - **EC2606**: The closing price was 1470.1, down 0.67%. The base was 710.1, the open interest was 820, and the change in open interest was - 6 [2][16]. 3.2 Month - to - Month Spread Information - **EC2508 - 2510**: The spread was 800.0, with a day - on - day increase of 32.0 and a comparison increase of 89.8 [2][16]. - **EC2510 - 2512**: The spread was - 396.4, with a day - on - day increase of 24.5 and a comparison decrease of 7.0 [2][16]. - **EC2512 - 2602**: The spread was 208.4, with a day - on - day decrease of 35.5 and a comparison decrease of 24.5 [2][16]. 3.3 Index Information - **SCF (European Line)**: Updated on August 18, 2025, the index was 2180.17 (1820 in a certain unit), down 2.47% compared to the previous period and 2.71% compared to the period before the previous one [2][16]. - **CCFI (European Line)**: Updated on August 15, 2025, the index was 1790.47, down 0.48% compared to the previous period and up 0.53% compared to the period before the previous one [2][16]. - **NCFI (European Line)**: Updated on August 15, 2025, the index was 1188.69, down 5.49% compared to the previous period and down 8.57% compared to the period before the previous one [2][16]. 3.4 Booking and Shipping Capacity Information - **Week34**: The final landing average price was 2850 US dollars (2000 points). In Week 33, the cargo collection of MSK was good, OA was average, and PA was poor. In Week 34, cargo collection declined significantly, and some shipping companies faced pressure in accepting cargo [2][16]. - **Week35**: The current average quoted price is 2625 US dollars (1840 points after conversion). The average price in the spot market is 2575 US dollars (1770 points after conversion). The PA alliance quoted 2500 US dollars, MSK opened at 2300 US dollars (later raised to 2490 US dollars), and the OA alliance quoted 2700 - 2800 US dollars [2][3][16][17]. - **Week36**: The latest quoted prices of shipping companies range from 2120 to 2420 US dollars, with an average of 2250 US dollars (1550 points). MSK opened at 2100 US dollars, and some routes increased to 2200 US dollars; CMA's quote dropped from 3420 to 2620 US dollars [3][17]. - **Shipping Capacity**: The weekly average shipping capacities in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 are 328,000, 312,000, and 315,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as cancellations, they are 38,000, 297,000, and 283,000 TEU respectively [2][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - No relevant information provided Summary by Directory Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products from August 15 to August 21, 2025 including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan's rebar, as well as Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong's hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils. For rebar, Shanghai's price increased by 50, while others remained unchanged. For hot - rolled coils, Tianjin and Lecong's prices decreased by 10, and Shanghai's remained the same. Cold - rolled coil prices were mostly unchanged [1] Production and Inventory - No relevant information provided Basis and Spread - No relevant information provided

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall strategy maintains the logic of shorting on rallies because the overall situation in September is loose, the subsequent driving force continues to be weak, the current October contract is at a discount of about 450 points to the spot, and there is still room for decline; the valuation of the far - month contract is vague, more affected by the driving force, and due to the small open interest, it is greatly affected by macro and capital behavior [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Content Futures Contract Information - For EC2508, the closing price was 2125.0, with a change of 0.09%, the basis was 55.2, the trading volume was 156, the open interest was 2060, and the change in open interest was - 109 [2] - For EC2510, the closing price was 1325.0, with a change of - 2.21%, the basis was 855.2, the trading volume was 35008, the open interest was 54293, and the change in open interest was 2566 [2] - For EC2512, the closing price was 1721.4, with a change of - 3.07%, the basis was 458.8, the trading volume was 7519, and the open interest was 12209 [2] - For EC2602, the closing price was 1513.0, with a change of - 1.24%, the basis was 667.2, the trading volume was 1211, the open interest was 4403, and the change in open interest was 35 [2] - For EC2604, the closing price was 1289.5, with a change of - 1.89%, the basis was 890.7, the trading volume was 1160, the open interest was 5716, and the change in open interest was 89 [2] - For EC2606, the closing price was 1470.1, with a change of - 0.67%, the basis was 710.1, the trading volume was 95, the open interest was 820, and the change in open interest was - 6 [2] Month - spread Information - The EC2508 - 2510 month - spread was 800.0, compared with 768.0 the previous day, 757.0 two days ago, and the week - on - week change was 89.8 [2] - The EC2510 - 2512 month - spread was - 396.4, compared with - 420.9 the previous day, - 404.7 two days ago, and the week - on - week change was - 7.0 [2] - The EC2512 - 2602 month - spread was 208.4, compared with 243.9 the previous day, 239.6 two days ago, and the week - on - week change was - 24.5 [2] Spot Index Information - The SCEIS index on August 18, 2025, was 2180.17 points, down 2.47% from the previous period and 2.71% from two periods ago [2] - The SCFI (European Line) on August 15, 2025, was 1820 dollars/TEU, down 7.19% from the previous period and 4.39% from two periods ago [2] - The CCFI on August 15, 2025, was 1790.47 points, down 0.48% from the previous period and up 0.53% from two periods ago [2] - The NCFI on August 15, 2025, was 1188.69 points, down 5.49% from the previous period and 8.37% from two periods ago [2] Booking and Capacity Information - Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for the end of August and early September (week35 - 36). In week35, the average price was 2575 dollars (equivalent to 1770 points on the futures market). The PA Alliance offered 2500 dollars, MSK initially opened at 2300 dollars and then rose to 2490 dollars, and the OA Alliance offered 2700 - 2800 dollars [2][3] - The weekly average capacities in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 were 328,000, 312,000, and 315,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as sailings cancelled, they were 328,000, 297,000, and 283,000 TEU respectively [2] Other Information - In week36, the latest quotes from shipping companies were between 2120 - 2420 dollars, with an average of 2250 dollars (1550 points). On Tuesday, MSK opened at 2100 dollars, and some routes rose to 2200 dollars; CMA's quote dropped from 3420 to 2620 dollars. On Wednesday, OOCL opened at 2300 dollars. On Thursday, CMA dropped 200 to 2420 dollars, HMM dropped 300 to 2200 dollars, and HPI dropped 200 to 2235 dollars [9]

Group 1: Price and Consumption Data - The prices of scrap steel in different regions from August 15th to August 21st, 2025 are presented. For example, in the East China region, the price decreased from 2255 to 2241, with a环比 of -1 [1]. - The prices of Shagang Heavy III (tax - included) and Zhenjiang Hongtai Sheared Scrap (tax - excluded) from 2022 to 2025 are shown, with fluctuations in different months [1]. - The daily consumption of long - process and short - process steel production from 2022 to 2025 is presented [1]. Group 2: Arrival and Inventory Data - The arrival of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang from 2022 to 2025 is shown [2]. - The arrival of scrap steel at 147 steel mills from 2022 to 2025 is presented [4]. - The scrap steel inventory of steel mills and the social inventory of scrap steel from 2019 to 2025 are shown, with monthly fluctuations [5][6]. Group 3: Profit - related Data - The screw - scrap price difference in East China and the profit of Jiangsu electric - furnace thread from 2022 to 2025 are presented, showing fluctuations in different months [6].

Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Its Calculation - The implied volatility index of financial options reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day. The implied volatility index of commodity options is obtained by weighting the IV of the two strike - prices above and below the at - the - money option of the front - month contract, reflecting the IV change trend of the front - month contract [2] - The difference between the IV index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means higher IV relative to HV, and a smaller difference means lower IV relative to HV [2] Group 2: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Difference Graph - The document presents graphs showing the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences for various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, and many commodity options such as soybeans, corn, sugar, cotton, etc [3] Group 3: Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current level of a variety's IV in history. A high quantile means the current IV is high, and a low quantile means the current IV is low. The volatility spread is calculated as the IV index minus the historical volatility [4] - The implied volatility quantile rankings are provided for different options, such as 50ETF with a quantile of 0.79, 300 - stock index with 0.80, iron ore with 0.37, PVC with 0.46, etc [5][7]