Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: 4.123% in the US, 4.497% in the UK, 3.562% in France, 2.854% in Germany, 3.548% in Italy, 3.286% in Spain, 0.276% in Switzerland, 3.439% in Greece, 2.059% in Japan, 6.197% in Brazil, 1.851% in China, 4.746% in Australia, 4.381% in New Zealand [1] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: 3.449% in the US, 3.721% in the UK, 2.119% in Germany, 1.168% in Japan, 2.193% in Italy, 1.332% in China (1Y yield), 4.041% in Australia [1] - The exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: 16.593 against the South African rand, 1439.750 against the South Korean won, 31.505 against the Thai baht, 4.049 against the Malaysian ringgit. The latest on - shore RMB exchange rate is 6.996, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.992 [1] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: 6896.240 for the Dow Jones, 48367.060 for the S&P 500, 23419.080 for the Industrial Index, 64366.700 for the Nasdaq, 9940.710 for the Mexican stock index, 8168.150 for the UK stock index, 24490.410 for the French CAC, 17354.900 for the German DAX, etc [1] - The latest value of the US investment - grade credit bond index is 5.475 [1] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are 3965.12, 4651.28, 3036.55, 3242.90, and 7458.94 respectively. The percentage changes are - 0.00%, 0.26%, 0.06%, 0.63%, and 0.38% respectively [2] - Valuation: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are 14.19, 11.83, 33.79, 27.55, and 18.95 respectively. The环比 changes are 0.03, 0.02, 0.09, - 0.03, and 0.10 respectively [2] - Risk premium: The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.49, and that of German DAX is 2.42. The环比 changes are 0.00 and - 0.06 respectively [2] - Fund flow: The latest values of A - shares, the main board, the small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are - 279.78, - 268.14, N/A, - 0.27, and 84.86 respectively. The 5 - day average values are - 155.53, - 161.57, N/A, 5.04, and 31.34 respectively [2] Other Trading Data - Transaction amount: The latest values of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, the small and medium - sized board, and ChiNext are 21423.26, 4571.85, 1131.75, 4636.74, and 5594.95 respectively. The环比 changes are 29.88, - 254.29, - 39.45, 7.14, and 215.29 respectively [3] - Main contract's premium or discount: The basis of IF, IH, and IC are - 29.08, - 1.15, and - 77.94 respectively. The amplitudes are - 0.63%, - 0.04%, and - 1.04% respectively [3] - Treasury futures trading data: The closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 are 107.94, 105.82, 107.95, and 105.82 respectively. The percentage changes are - 0.03%, - 0.02%, - 0.04%, and - 0.02% respectively [3] - Fund interest rates: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are 1.3782%, 2.0620%, and 1.6000% respectively. The daily changes are - 56.00BP, 12.00BP, and 0.00BP respectively [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report [1] - Report Date: December 31, 2025 [2] - Report Team: Research Center Agricultural Products Team [2] Group 2: Corn/Starch Analysis Price Data - Corn prices in Changchun remained stable at 2160, while prices in other regions fluctuated slightly, with a 10 increase in Shekou. The basis increased by 19, and trade profit and import profit increased by 10 and 33 respectively. [3] - Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained stable at 2750 and 2800 respectively. The basis increased by 9, and processing profit remained unchanged. [3] Market Analysis - Corn: In the short term, the market sentiment is affected by the targeted auction policy, and the price in the southern port has回调. However, due to the strong price - holding intention of farmers in the producing areas, the supply of circulating grain is limited, and the spot price in the producing areas is firm. After the New Year's Day, the downstream may enter the seasonal restocking stage, which may drive up the corn price. In the long term, attention should be paid to the import policy and domestic auction policy. [4] - Starch: In the short term, due to the decline in downstream restocking enthusiasm, the de - stocking speed of deep - processing enterprises has slowed down, and the starch price is still weak. After the New Year's Day, supported by the year - end stocking season, the starch price is expected to rise slightly. In the long term, attention should be paid to the downstream consumption rhythm. [4] Group 3: Sugar Analysis Price Data - Sugar prices in Liuzhou and Nanning remained stable, while the price in Kunming increased slightly. The basis decreased by 5, and the Zhengzhou futures price increased by 170. [5][6] Market Analysis - In the short term, the supply pressure of raw sugar has decreased, and the futures price can be determined by domestic sugar production cost and spot price. In the long term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the futures price will decline to the cost of duty - paid imports. Weather risks and policy changes should be monitored. [6] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Analysis Price Data - Cotton prices showed an upward trend, with a 40 increase in the 3128 variety. Import profit and other indicators also changed slightly. [21] Market Analysis - The initial inventory of cotton is relatively low year - on - year, offsetting most of the increase in production. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good recent profits, and the positive result of the Sino - US Fusan talk, the demand for cotton is expected to improve next year, making it suitable for long - term long positions. [9] Group 5: Egg Analysis Price Data - Egg prices in most regions fluctuated slightly, with a 0.06 decrease in Hubei. The basis decreased by 34. The price of white - feather broilers decreased by 0.10, while the prices of yellow - feather broilers and pigs increased slightly. [13] Market Analysis - The inflection point of egg inventory has appeared, but the base is still high. The key to the decline in inventory lies in the culling rhythm. If farmers cull chickens more quickly, it will accelerate the de - stocking process. If the spot price remains low before Laba Festival, farmers may cull a batch of 400 - day - old chickens, which is beneficial to the egg price in the second quarter. [13] Group 6: Apple Analysis Price Data - Apple prices in Shandong 80 first - and second - grade remained stable at 8900.00. The national inventory decreased by 71.00, Shandong inventory decreased by 37.00, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 67.00. [19][20] Market Analysis - The trading atmosphere in the late - Fuji apple producing areas is still light. The price of high - quality apples is stable, while the price of ordinary and lower - quality apples has weakened. The sales in the consumer market are slow, and the de - stocking speed is lower than that of last year. Affected by competing fruits, the futures market is expected to show a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. [20] Group 7: Pig Analysis Price Data - Pig prices in most regions increased, with a 0.05 increase in Henan Kaifeng, a 0.20 increase in Shandong Linyi, etc. The basis decreased by 25.00. [20] Market Analysis - The spot price of pigs increased significantly over the weekend. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and there may be a short - term mismatch between supply and demand. The improvement of capacity de - stocking has improved the long - term sentiment, but the market reaction is cautious. Attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, epidemics, and policies. [20]

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/12/31 华东 स्क 中部 东北 日期 华南 2025/12/245 | 2174 2226 2216 2254 原点 2036 2227 2025/12/25 2174 2254 2036 2217 2224 2025/12/26 2173 2253 2039 2215 2025/12/29 2164 2252 2035 2222 2213 2025/12/305 容 2164 ~2251 原占 2034 2226 原 2213 沙钢重三价格 (含税) ◆ 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ● 2025 4,200元/吨 3,900 3,600 3,300 3,000 2,700 2,400 2,100 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 长流程日耗 镇江鸿泰剪切料价格 (不含税) ● 2022 ● 2023 ● 2024 ● 2025 3,600元/吨 3,300 3,000 2,700 2,400 2,100 1,800 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 短流程日耗 ◆ 2022 ...

乘 亦安期货 动力煤早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025-12-31 最新 日变化 月变化 最新 日变化 月变化 周变化 年变化 周变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 秦皇岛5000 -126.0 -125.0 25省终端可用天数 25省终端供煤 -0.3 686.0 0.0 15.0 34.0 226 2.6 5.0 -78.0 587.0 -11.0 606.6 -33.5 -16.3 -107.0 一州港5500 810.0 0.0 -5.0 -50.0 -55.0 北方港库存 2708.0 -5.0 112.0 374.5 495.0 550.0 -90.0 -85.0 -1.0 -31.9 鄂尔多斯5500 0.0 0.0 -65.0 北方锚地船舶 70.0 -3.0 13.0 20.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -70.0 北方港调入量 130.4 大同5500 -7.7 -9.8 北方港吞叶量 榆林6000 690.0 0.0 0.0 -42.0 -52.0 1663 19.8 35.3 3.1 3.1 -1510 -25.0 -56.3 CBCFI海运指数 秦皇岛-上海（4-5DWT） 榆林6200 5 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on December 31, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, equilibrium price ratios, profits, spreads, and theoretical spreads [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On December 31, 2025, the domestic spot price was 97,700, LME price was 12,516, and the ratio was 7.86; the three - month domestic price was 98,240, LME price was 12,477, and the ratio was 7.84. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.95 with a profit of - 1,171.20 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 23,290, LME price was 3,091, and the ratio was 7.54; the three - month domestic price was 23,420, LME price was 3,123, and the ratio was 5.60. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.37 with a profit of - 2,576.06 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 22,180, LME price was 2,941, and the ratio was 7.54; the three - month domestic price was 22,620, LME price was 2,974, and the ratio was 7.54. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.33 with a profit of - 2,321.75 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 131,750, LME price was 16,358, and the ratio was 8.05. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.04 with a profit of 1,259.30 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,400, LME price was 1,979, and the ratio was 8.74; the three - month domestic price was 17,510, LME price was 2,021, and the ratio was 11.48. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.60 with a profit of 273.72 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads for次月 - spot month, 三月 - spot month, 四月 - spot month, and 五月 - spot month were - 630, - 480, - 420, and - 460 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 596, 1089, 1592, and 2094 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 180, 220, 265, and 295, and the theoretical spreads were 219, 344, 469, and 594 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 50, 105, 145, and 180, and the theoretical spreads were 224, 348, 473, and 597 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 65, 70, 70, and 110, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 320, 429, and 537 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads for 次月 - spot month, 三月 - spot month, 四月 - spot month, and 五月 - spot month were 7,080, 7,360, 7,630, and 7,870 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 1,410, and the theoretical spread was 6,712 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads for the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot were 1,150 and 520 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 489 and 936 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 90 and 90, and the theoretical spreads were 146 and 282 (also mentioned 185 and 325) respectively [4][5]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 40 and 105, and the theoretical spreads were 136 and 252 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On December 31, 2025, the cross - variety ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc were 4.19, 4.34, 5.61, 0.97, 1.29, 0.75 in Shanghai (three - consecutive) and 4.02, 4.21, 6.25, 0.95, 1.48, 0.64 in London (three - consecutive) [5].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: December 31, 2025 [3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Market Data Futures - BR主力合约(12) price on December 30 was 11,565, down 35 from the previous day and up 170 from November 28 [4] - Open interest on December 30 was 49,563, down 9,640 from the previous day and down 49,450 from November 28 [4] - Trading volume on December 30 was 121,267, down 30,873 from the previous day and down 69,779 from November 28 [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity remained at 23,490 [4] - Long - short ratio on December 30 was 10.55, down 2 from the previous day and down 11 from November 28 [4] - Basis for BR on December 30 was -72, up 85 from the previous day and up 280 from November 28 [4] Basis/Spread/Inter - variety - 02 - 03 spread on December 30 was -25, down 10 from the previous day and down 15 from November 28 [4] - 03 - 04 spread on December 30 was -25, down 15 from the previous day and down 20 from November 28 [4] - RU - BR spread on December 30 was 4,105, up 40 from the previous day and down 150 from November 28 [4] - NR - BR spread on December 30 was 1,125, up 60 from the previous day and down 95 from November 28 [4] Spot - Shandong market price on December 30 was 11,500, up 50 from the previous day and up 450 from November 28 [4] - Chuanhua market price on December 30 was 11,450, unchanged from the previous day and up 500 from November 28 [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on December 30 was 11,500, up 200 from the previous day and up 400 from November 28 [4] - CFR Northeast Asia price on December 30 was 1,415, up 15 from the previous day and up 15 from November 28 [4] - CFR Southeast Asia price on December 30 was 1,635, up 10 from the previous day and up 10 from November 28 [4] Profit - Spot processing profit on December 30 was 477, down 1 from the previous day and down 290 from November 28 [4] - Import profit on December 30 was -203, down 68 from the previous day and up 368 from November 28 [4] - Export profit on December 30 was 809, up 26 from the previous day and down 356 from November 28 [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Market Data Spot - Shandong market price on December 30 was 8,650, up 50 from the previous day and up 725 from November 28 [4] - Jiangsu market price on December 30 was 8,450, unchanged from the previous day and up 750 from November 28 [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on December 30 was 8,300, unchanged from the previous day and up 500 from November 28 [4] - CFR China price had some data missing [4] Profit - Ethylene cracking profit had some data missing [4] - Carbon four extraction profit on December 29 was 1,604, subsequent data missing [4] - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on December 30 was -294, up 140 from the previous day and up 960 from November 28 [4] - Import profit on December 30 was 660, unchanged from the previous day and up 497 from November 28 [4] - Export profit data had some missing values [4] Production Profit - Styrene - butadiene production profit on December 30 was 1,125, down 63 from the previous day and down 188 from November 28 [4] - ABS production profit data had some missing values [4] - SBS production profit on December 30 was -790, unchanged from the previous day and down 365 from November 28 [4] Group 4: Data Source - Data sources include Mysteel and Wind [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The overseas market remains tight with an expected increase in the January CP official price. Domestically, the price difference between domestic and foreign markets is relatively high, and the basis is relatively low, and the driving force needs to be awaited. The profits of PDH are deteriorating, and the maintenance situation in January needs to be observed [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Basis - **Daily Price Changes**: On Tuesday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4372 (-8), in Shandong was 4300 (-20), and in South China was 4510 (+0). The price of ether post - carbon four was 4440 (+10). The lowest delivery location was Shandong. At night, the basis was 119 (+155), the 02 - 03 monthly spread was 136 (+12), and the 03 - 04 monthly spread was -167 (+19). As of 9 p.m., FEI was 527.39, a decrease of 4 US dollars. The January CP official price increased more than expected, with propane and butane at 525/520 US dollars per ton respectively [1] - **Weekly Situation**: The domestic civil LPG prices were differentiated. The cheapest delivery product was Shandong civil LPG (-110). The East China price was 4384 (-10), and the South China price was 4510 (+10). The overseas EI fluctuated, MB weakened, and CP strengthened. According to the first - round recommended values of January CP, propane and butane were 505/495 (+10/+10) respectively. The domestic and foreign prices strengthened slightly. PG - CP reached 100 (+1.86), PG - FEI reached 89 (+4.86), FEI - MB reached 185.6 (+10.6), and FEI - CP reached 11 [1] Premium and Freight - The East China propane arrival premium was 4 (+1). The AFEI, Middle East, and US propane OB premiums were 18.75 (+5.75), 50 (-1), and 43 (+0) respectively. The freight increased slightly. The FEL - MORI price difference was -14 (a month - on - month increase of 4) [1] Inventory and Utilization Rate - The arrival rate of ships was 54.83%, and the port inventory decreased by 14.3%. The refinery's commercial volume increased by 1.18%, and the refinery inventory increased by 0.41%. The PDH utilization rate was 76.36% (+1.36 pct) [1]

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/30 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | 2025/12/23 | 58.38 | 62.38 | 62.11 | - | 0.51 | -4.00 | 0.64 | 174.32 | 10.83 | 219.06 | 29.63 | | 2025/12/24 | 58.35 | 62.24 | 62.07 | - | 0.44 | -3.89 | 0.82 | 174.71 | 11.14 | 215.76 | 28.38 | | 2025/12/25 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ...

Report Overview - The report is a fuel oil morning report by the energy and chemical team of the research center, dated December 30, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report Core View - This week, the 380 cracking weakened, the monthly spread fluctuated at a low level, the basis fluctuated at a low level, the European high - sulfur cracking weakened, and the high - sulfur EW continued to strengthen. The 0.5% cracking in Singapore fluctuated at a low level, the monthly spread fluctuated at a historical low, and the 5GO repaired as diesel weakened. In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil increased in stock, the high - sulfur floating storage decreased in stock, the residual oil in Fujairah decreased in stock, the high - sulfur floating storage decreased significantly in stock, the European high - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly in stock, and the US high - sulfur floating storage increased slightly in stock. The low - sulfur floating storage in Singapore decreased in stock, and the European low - sulfur floating storage increased in stock. Global residual oil entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external cracking is subject to crude oil fluctuations, and there is no improvement at the spot end, so it is regarded as bearish. The low - sulfur valuation is low but there is no driving force [4][5] Summary by Related Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 23 to December 29, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed by 1.72, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed by 1.40, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed by - 0.31, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed by 2.33, Rotterdam VLSFO - G M1 changed by - 0.93, LGO - Brent M1 changed by - 1.03, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed by - 0.32 [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 23 to December 29, 2025, the price change of Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 was 0.11, other data for December 29 were not provided [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From December 23 to December 29, 2025, the FOB 380cst price changed by - 4.31, FOB VLSFO changed by - 4.51, and the 380 basis changed by 0.60 [3] Domestic FU Data - From December 23 to December 29, 2025, FU 01 changed by - 38, FU 05 changed by - 32, FU 09 changed by - 20, FU 01 - 05 changed by - 6, FU 05 - 09 changed by - 12, and FU 09 - 01 changed by 18 [3] Domestic LU Data - From December 23 to December 29, 2025, LU 01 changed by - 360, LU 05 changed by - 42, LU 09 changed by - 39, LU 01 - 05 changed by - 318, LU 05 - 09 changed by - 3, and LU 09 - 01 changed by 321 [4]

Report Summary Core View - The report provides daily volatility data, including the implied volatility index, historical volatility, and their spread trends for various financial and commodity options, as well as the ranking of implied volatility quantiles and volatility spread quantiles [3][5]. Summary by Related Content Implied Volatility Index and Historical Volatility - The implied volatility index of financial options reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day. The implied volatility index of commodity options is weighted by the implied volatility of the two - strike options around the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3]. - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility indicates the relative level of implied volatility to historical volatility. A larger difference means higher implied volatility relative to historical volatility, and a smaller difference means lower implied volatility relative to historical volatility [3]. Implied Volatility Quantiles and Volatility Spread Quantiles - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current level of a variety's implied volatility in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low [5]. - Volatility spread quantiles are calculated based on the index and historical volatility [5].