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沥青早报-20251201
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 00:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread - On November 28, the Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) was 44, with a daily change of -9; the East China basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse) was 54, down 29 from the previous day; the South China basis (Foshan Warehouse) was -16, a decrease of 49 [3] - The 12 - 01 spread was -18, up 4; the 12 - 03 spread was -48, up 3; the 01 - 02 spread was -7, down 2 [3] 3.2 Futures Contract Information - The price of the BU main contract (01) on November 28 was 2996, down 11 from the previous day [3] - The trading volume was 587,546, an increase of 211,118, or 23%; the open interest was 407,598, a decrease of 6,644, or 6% [3] - The combined order quantity remained at 4,690 [3] 3.3 Spot Prices - On November 28, the price of Brent crude oil was 63.3, an increase of 0.2 [3] - The price of Jingbo was 3000, unchanged; Hongrun was 2960, down 20; Zhenjiang Warehouse was 3050, down 40; Foshan Warehouse was 2980, down 60 [3] 3.4 Profits - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit on November 28 was 155, a decrease of 25; the comprehensive profit of Ma Rui - type refineries was 749, down 22 [3]
永安期货铁合金早报-20251128
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:32
价格 铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | | 宁夏#72 内蒙#72 | 5100 5120 | 0 0 | -50 -80 | 5400 5470 | 主力合约 01合约 | 5390 5380 | -26 -12 | -56 -30 | | 硅铁自然块 | | | | | | | | | | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5150 | 0 | -50 | 5480 | 05合约 | 5344 | -32 | -56 | | | 陕西#72 | 5080 | 0 | -50 | 5380 | 09合约 | 5430 | -38 | -66 | | | 陕西#75 | 5700 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | 10 | 26 | 6 | | 硅铁合格块 | ...
永安期货焦煤日报-20251128
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:32
焦煤日报 2025/11/28 研究中心黑色团队 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1505.00 | -140.00 | -140.00 | -70.00 | -3.53% Peak Downs | 214.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 4.80 | -1.50 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 990.00 | -10.00 | -7.00 | -180.00 | -4.81% Goonyella | 213.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 3.80 | -2.00 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1500.00 | 0.00 | -50.00 | 30.00 | -4.46% 盘面05 | 1170.00 | 2.50 | -23.50 | -199.00 | -9.55% | | 安泽主焦 | 1580.00 | 0.00 | -80.00 | -20.00 ...
永安期货有色早报-20251128
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:32
有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/28 铜 : 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/11/21 100 2233 115035 49790 -632.80 546.36 34.0 50.0 1.06 155025 6625 2025/11/24 90 2352 115035 43816 -1067.61 115.73 34.0 50.0 24.88 155750 5525 2025/11/25 90 2625 115035 40965 -787.48 156.46 32.0 48.0 9.52 156575 5625 2025/11/26 95 2695 115035 39825 -712.75 242.94 32.0 48.0 8.83 156500 6050 2025/11/27 100 2744 115035 35873 -1077.91 56.44 32.0 48.0 16.56 157175 6075 变化 5 49 0 -39 ...
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251128
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views Methanol - The current situation remains poor, with Iranian plant shutdowns slower than expected. November is expected to see high imports, and it is difficult to resolve the contradictions in the 01 contract. The issue of port sanctions is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland area. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it has no impact on profits. [1] Plastic (Polyethylene) - The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The two major oil companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for the time being. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is the same as the previous period. Recently, the domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and the US quotes. In 2025, the pressure from new plants is large, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants. [6] PP (Polypropylene) - The inventory of the two major oil companies (upstream) and the middle - stream is decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral, and markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The production scheduling of drawn products is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Currently, downstream orders are average, and the inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase significantly or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level. [6] PVC - The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally declining, and there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recently, near - term export orders have declined slightly. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance; the counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether future export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the accumulation of static inventory contradictions is slow, the cost is stable, downstream performance is mediocre, the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates. [6] 3. Data Summaries Methanol | Date |动力煤期货|江苏现货|华南现货|鲁南折盘面|西南折盘面|河北折盘面|西北折盘面|CFR中国|CFR东南亚|进口利润|主力基差|盘面MTO利润| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/21 | 801 | 2003 | 1985 | 2350 | 2350 | 2340 | 2585 | 234 | 317 | - 25 | - 20 | - | | 2025/11/24 | 801 | 2053 | 2028 | 2360 | 2372 | 2340 | 2588 | 237 | 317 | 13 | - 20 | - | | 2025/11/25 | 801 | 2057 | 2030 | 2378 | 2412 | 2385 | 2588 | 240 | 317 | - 16 | - 15 | - | | 2025/11/26 | 801 | 2088 | 2048 | 2408 | 2415 | 2390 | 2590 | 243 | 317 | - 16 | - 5 | - | | 2025/11/27 | 801 | 2103 | 2073 | 2410 | 2410 | 2390 | 2590 | - | - | - | - 11 | - | |日度变化|0|15|25|2| - 5|0|0| - | - | - | - 6| - | [1] Plastic (Polyethylene) | Date |东北亚乙烯|华北LL|华东LL|华东LD|华东HD|LL美金|LL美湾|进口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/21 | 730 | 6750 | 6975 | 8850 | 7100 | 800 | 764 | 14 | 6770 | - 20 | 69 | 11835 | | 2025/11/24 | 730 | 6760 | 6975 | 8850 | 7100 | 800 | 764 | 17 | 6793 | - 20 | - | 11721 | | 2025/11/25 | 730 | 6740 | 6975 | 8850 | 7100 | 800 | 785 | 35 | 6762 | - 50 | - | 11701 | | 2025/11/26 | 730 | 6700 | 6975 | 8850 | 7050 | 795 | - | 85 | 6707 | - 30 | - | 11701 | | 2025/11/27 | - | - | 6925 | 8800 | 7000 | - | - | - | 6699 | - 20 | - | 11701 | |日度变化| - | - | - 50 | - 50 | - 50 | - | - | - | - 8 | 10 | - | 0 | [6] PP (Polypropylene) | Date |山东丙烯|东北亚丙烯|华东PP|华北PP|山东粉料|华东共聚|PP美金|PP美湾|出口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/21 | 5900 | 695 | 6305 | 6265 | 6180 | 6766 | 765 | 805 | - 5 | 6357 | - 80 | 69 | 15733 | | 2025/11/24 | 5900 | 695 | 6285 | 6255 | 6160 | 6754 | 765 | 805 | - 4 | 6372 | - 80 | - | 15733 | | 2025/11/25 | 5920 | 695 | 6270 | 6248 | 6160 | 6754 | 765 | 805 | - 5 | 6317 | - 100 | - | 15668 | | 2025/11/26 | 6050 | 695 | 6250 | 6213 | 6150 | 6744 | - | - | - | 6265 | - 70 | - | 15518 | | 2025/11/27 | 6050 | - | 6205 | 6210 | 6150 | 6728 | - | - | - | 6295 | - 70 | - | 15518 | |日度变化|0| - | - 45 | - 3 | 0 | - 16 | - | - | - | 30 | 0 | - | 0 | [6] PVC | Date |西北电石|山东烧碱|电石法 - 华东|乙烯法 - 华东|电石法 - 华南|电石法 - 西北|进口美金价(CFR中国)|出口利润|西北综合利润|华北综合利润|基差(高端交割品)| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/21 | 2400 | 792 | 4490 | - | - | 4180 | 690 | 426 | - | - | - 90 | | 2025/11/24 | 2450 | 777 | 4530 | - | - | 4180 | 690 | 423 | - | - | - 70 | | 2025/11/25 | 2450 | 777 | 4530 | - | - | 4180 | 690 | 415 | - | - | - 70 | | 2025/11/26 | 2450 | 777 | 4520 | - | - | 4180 | 640 | - | - | - | - 70 | | 2025/11/27 | 2450 | 767 | 4530 | - | - | 4180 | - | - | - | - | - 70 | |日度变化|0| - 10 | 10 | - | - | 0 | - | - | - | - | 0 | [6]
原油成品油早报-20251128
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:12
原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/28 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | 2月差 | T | RT(EFS | OB | T | HO | | | 2025/11/21 | 58.06 | 62.56 | 64.39 | -0.20 | 0.62 | -4.50 | 0.25 | 188.34 | 16.54 | 245.64 | 40.61 | | 2025/11/24 | 58.84 | 62.22 | 64.50 | 0.48 | 0.59 | -3.38 | 0.29 | 189.66 | 17.44 | 240.61 | 38.84 | | 2025/11/25 | 57.95 | 62.48 | 64.3 ...
焦炭日报-20251128
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:07
1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 长治出厂价 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 青岛港准一平仓 焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/11/28 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1649.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 112.42 | -6.91% 高炉开工率 | 88.58 | | -0.22 | -1.36 | 0.00% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1900.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 110.00 | 11.11% 铁水日均产量 | 234.68 | | -1.60 | -1.68 | 0.35% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1825.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 110.00 ...
纸浆早报-20251128
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:07
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report presents data on pulp prices, including SP main - contract closing prices, import prices, and prices of different types of pulp and paper products, showing that prices have remained stable recently [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Futures Data - On November 27, 2025, the SP main - contract closing price was 5184.00, with a decline compared to previous days. The decline rate on November 27 was - 0.46083% [1] - The discount to US dollar price on November 27 was 642.20, and the basis of Shandong Yinxing and Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing were 241 and 251 respectively [1] Pulp Import Data - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import of Canadian Golden Lion, Canadian Lion, and Chilean Silver Star pulp all showed losses. The import profits were - 110.31, - 555.29, and - 85.27 respectively [2] Pulp and Paper Product Price Data - From November 21 to November 27, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged, and the average prices in Shandong area also remained unchanged [2] - The prices of cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and tissue paper (tissue index) remained unchanged from November 24 to November 27, 2025 [2] Pulp and Paper Product Profit Margin Data - From November 24 to November 27, 2025, the estimated profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white - card paper, and tissue paper changed. The changes were 0.6808, 0.1304, 0.0934, and 0.1146 respectively [2] Pulp Price Difference Data - From November 21 to November 27, 2025, the price differences between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood pulp and waste paper all showed certain changes [2]
钢材早报-20251128
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:07
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core View No core view is presented in the provided content. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Profit - The report provides the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, including Beijing, Shanghai, and other cities' prices of rebar and hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, along with their price changes [1]. Production and Inventory No relevant content is provided. Basis and Spread No relevant content is provided.
永安期货集运早报-20251128
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 03:05
Group 1: Report on Futures Market Data - EC2512 futures price was 1612.9, down 0.59%, with a trading volume of 1493 and an open interest of 5232, a decrease of 302 [2][11] - EC2602 futures price was 1387.7, up 0.02%, with a trading volume of 24978 and an open interest of 42968, a decrease of 1089 [2][11] - EC2604 futures price was 1054.6, down 1.64%, with a trading volume of 5766 and an open interest of 18701, an increase of 703 [2][11] - The difference between EC2512 - 2504 was 558.3, compared to 550.2 the previous day and 523.6 two days ago [2][11] - The SCFIS (European Line) index on November 24, 2025, was 1639.37 dollars/TEU, up 20.75% from the previous period [2][11] - The CCFI on November 21, 2025, was 1432.96, up 2.09% from the previous period [2][11] - The NCFI on November 21, 2025, was 951.65, down 2.83% from the previous period [2][11] Group 2: Market Analysis and Outlook - On Wednesday, the market dropped significantly due to near - term price cuts and resumption of shipping expectations [3][12] - The EC2512 contract is moving towards the delivery logic, following the spot price, with P1 around 1550 - 1600 points [3][12] - P2 and P3 correspond to the second half of December cabin space, expecting a stable - to - rising trend [3][12] - The EC2602 contract is undervalued, and the key to going long is to wait for the signal of cargo volume overflow [3][12] - There is no overly pessimistic expectation because this year's Chinese New Year is late, pre - holiday shipments have not fully started, and there is no cargo overflow [3][12] - December price cuts are beneficial for January price increases, and freight rate peaks usually occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Chinese New Year [3][12] - The EC2604 contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies [3][12] Group 3: Recent Spot Market Conditions in European Lines - In Week 49, the offline quotes of GEMINI and PA alliances were between 2300 - 2500 dollars, and OA was between 2300 - 2600 dollars, with an average of about 2400 dollars (equivalent to about 1650 points on the futures market) [4][13] - In Week 50, Maersk opened cabins at 2200 dollars, PA dropped to 1900 - 2200 dollars, and OA remained at 2400 - 2500 dollars [4][13] - On Thursday, YML cut prices to 1900 dollars, ONE to 2200 dollars, and the central price might be between 2200 - 2300 dollars (1550 - 1600 points) [4][13]