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铁矿石早报-20250701
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 04:36
| | | | | 铁矿石早报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 | | 2025/7/1 | | | | | 现货 | | | | 远期 | | | | 地区 | 品种 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 折盘面 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 进口利润 | | 普氏62指数 | | 94.40 | 1.10 | 0.60 | | | | | | | | 纽曼粉 | 703 | 0 | 1 | 750.8 | 91.55 | -0.15 | 0.45 | -33.81 | | | PB粉 | 708 | 1 | 0 | 748.1 | 93.70 | -0.05 | 0.10 | -13.08 | | 澳洲 | 麦克粉 | 691 | 1 | 0 | 755.1 | 89.65 | -0.15 | 0.50 | -9.50 | | | 金布巴 | 660 | 1 | 0 | 746.3 | 85.90 | -0.15 | 0.35 | - ...
LPG早报-20250701
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 04:30
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Viewpoints - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4580. PP prices fluctuate, FEI and CP prices decline, CP discount remains unchanged, PDH production profit improves, and FEI production cost is higher than CP. The PG futures market weakens, the monthly spread changes little, and the 08 - 09 spread is 95. The US - Far East arbitrage window closes [1]. - Civil gas prices rise first and then fall. Geopolitical tensions at the beginning of the week lead to a bullish market, but overall supply is abundant, high prices are resisted by downstream, and the easing of the Middle - East situation causes a sharp drop in oil prices, pressuring the market later in the week. The PG futures market falls sharply, the basis strengthens to 345, and the monthly spread changes little. External market prices weaken significantly, and the oil - gas ratio first suppresses and then rises. The internal - external price difference drops significantly, PG - CP weakens to - 4 (-33), FEI - CP weakens significantly, and the US - Asia arbitrage window closes. Import prices drop significantly, AFEI propane discount drops slightly, and CP propane - butane discount drops significantly. PDH spot production profit improves, paper - based production profit rises, FEI is lower than CP; alkylation oil profit rises significantly; MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit is basically flat, isomerization etherification profit increases; FEI - MOPJ moves up [1]. - Fundamentally, increased arrivals lead to port inventory accumulation; factory inventory accumulates slightly with regional differentiation, East China destocks, and South China and Shandong accumulate inventory; external sales increase; PDH operating rate rises to 70.54% (+4.33 pct), alkylation operating rate is 46.02% (-1.84 pct), and MTBE production remains basically flat. The number of registered warrants is 8358 lots (+0). Next week, PDH and alkylation operating rates are expected to rise slightly, combustion demand remains weak, low prices stimulate sales, and subsequent prices will generally stabilize [1]. 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Price Data - From June 24 - 30, 2025, prices of South China LPG, Shandong LPG, Shandong ether - post C4, and other related products change. For example, South China LPG prices range from 4710 - 4755, Shandong LPG prices range from 4599 - 4667 [1]. Market Conditions - Futures market: The PG futures market weakens, and the monthly spread changes little [1]. - External market: FEI and CP prices decline, and the US - Far East and US - Asia arbitrage windows close [1]. - Spot market: Civil gas prices show a trend of rising first and then falling [1]. Profit and Cost - PDH production profit improves, and FEI production cost is higher than CP. PDH spot production profit improves, and paper - based production profit rises [1]. Inventory and Production - Port inventory accumulates due to increased arrivals, factory inventory accumulates slightly with regional differentiation. PDH operating rate rises to 70.54% (+4.33 pct), and alkylation operating rate is 46.02% (-1.84 pct) [1].
集运早报-20250630
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 06:37
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the latest data on container shipping futures, freight rate indices, and shipping capacity arrangements, as well as recent shipping - related news. It also shows the seasonal trends of various freight rate indices for different routes [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2506 closed at 1887.7 with a 0.10% increase, EC2508 at 1805.0 with a 2.56% increase, EC2510 at 1325.9 with a 0.02% increase, EC2512 at 1495.0 with a 0.40% increase, EC2602 at 1317.2 with a - 0.02% decrease, and EC2604 at 1170.6 with a 0.90% increase. The trading volumes and open interest for each contract are also provided, along with the changes in open interest [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads between different contract months are presented, such as EC2506 - 2508 was 82.7, EC2508 - 2510 was 479.1, etc., and their comparisons with previous periods are given [2]. Freight Rate Indices - **SCFI 303 (Europe - America)**: Updated annually, on 2025/6/27, it was 2030 S/TEU, with a 10.63% increase from the previous period and a - 0.49% change from the period before that [2]. - **CCFI**: Updated weekly, on 2025/6/27, it was 1640.72, with a 3.94% increase from the previous period and a 6.03% increase from the period before that [2]. - **NCFI**: On 2025/6/27, it was 1442.95, with an 11.03% increase from the previous period and a - 0.64% change from the period before that [2]. - **TCI**: On 2025/6/26, it was 937.12, with a 0.00% change from the previous period and a - 2.60% change from the period before that [2]. Shipping Capacity Arrangements - In July and August 2025 (tentatively), the average weekly shipping capacities are 299,000 and 305,000 TEU respectively. The first week of July had good cargo receipts but no space shortages. The shipping capacity in the second and fourth weeks of July is neutral, while the third week is relatively high, which may suppress freight rates. In week 33, there is a new shipping service, and there are ship delays for PA&MSC [2]. European Line Quotation - Shipowners announced price increases for July. MSK opened at $3400, and others were mostly between $3500 - $4000. In the first week, some shipowners reduced prices, and MSK dropped to $3100, with the final average price at $3400 (equivalent to 2400 points on the disk). In the second week, MSK opened at $2900, and the current average quote from shipowners is $3400, equivalent to 2400 points on the disk [2]. Shipping - Related News - On 6/26, the defense minister of a certain country stated that Israel regularly takes actions to thwart relevant threats. On 6/29, the director - general of the International Atomic Energy Agency said that Iran may produce enriched uranium within a few months. On 6/30, Israeli forces attacked multiple areas in Gaza, killing at least 21 Palestinians [2]. Seasonal Trends of Freight Rate Indices - **European Line**: Seasonal trends of SCFIS, SCFI, TCI, CCFI, NCFI, XSI - C, FBX11, and WCl freight rate indices are presented, covering multiple years from 2014 - 2025 [5][7][9][11]. - **Other Routes**: Seasonal trends of TCI freight rate indices for routes such as the Eastern Mediterranean, Western Mediterranean, East America, West America, South - West America, Southeast Asia (Ho Chi Minh), Persian Gulf, East Africa, and India - Pakistan are shown, with data spanning from 2015 - 2025 [13].
永安期货贵金属早报-20250630
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 05:44
Price Performance - Latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 3271.75, 35.98, 1392.00, 1089.00, 65.52, and 9893.50 respectively [1] - Price changes of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, and LME Copper are -0.04, 0.00, -0.00, 0.24, and 0.02 respectively [2] Trading Data - Latest inventory of COMEX Silver is not provided,上期所白银库存 is 1295.66,黄金ETF持仓 is 954.82,白银ETF持仓 is 14866.19,上金所白银库存 is 1378.88, and the deferred fee payment directions of 上金所黄金 and 上金所白银 are both 1 [2] - Inventory changes of 上期所白银, 黄金ETF持仓 are 24.83 and 1.43 respectively, while changes of COMEX Silver, 白银ETF持仓, 上金所白银 inventory, and deferred fee payment directions are 0.00 [2] Other Data - Latest values of US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 97.26, 1.17, 1.37, 144.64, and 2.00 respectively [11] - Changes of some unspecified data are -46.95, -0.61, 84.00, 40.00, 0.28, 132.50 [7]
永安期货甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250630
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 05:38
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For methanol, the high imports are starting to materialize, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of bearish factor realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the United States, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, it is advisable to consider buying at low prices [2]. - For plastics, the overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The import profit is around -400 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD is weakening. In June, the domestic linear production is increasing. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [7]. - For PP, the upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around -500. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around -1000. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly, and the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure under the background of over - capacity [7]. - For PVC, the basis has strengthened. The downstream has a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. The mid - upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, and other factors. The PVC comprehensive profit is -500, and the static inventory is decreasing from a high level [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the Jiangsu spot price increased from 2735 to 2820, with a daily increase of 60 on the 27th. The import profit increased from 210 to 267, and the futures MTO profit increased from -1350 to -1176 [2]. - **Market Situation**: High imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has started, and the futures price is undervalued. Iran has reduced its production, non - Iranian supply has increased, and the domestic supply has also increased. The market is in a bearish factor realization period [2]. Plastics - **Price Data**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 850 on the 27th. The import profit remained at -77, and the two - oil inventory decreased from 81 to 70 [7]. - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The import profit is around -400 with no further increase. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD is weakening. In June, the domestic linear production is increasing [7]. PP - **Price Data**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6890 to 6700, and the export profit remained at -14. The two - oil inventory decreased from 81 to 70 [7]. - **Market Situation**: The upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around -500. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around -1000, and the supply in June is expected to increase slightly [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the East China calcium carbide - based PVC price increased from 4850 to 4850 (with a 50 increase on the 25th). The export profit remained at 626, and the basis (high - end delivery product) increased from -90 to -80 [10][11]. - **Market Situation**: The basis has strengthened, the downstream has a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices, and the mid - upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, and other factors. The PVC comprehensive profit is -500, and the static inventory is decreasing from a high level [11].
永安期货天气早报-20250630
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 05:33
Group 1: US Soybean and Corn Regions - Past 60 - day actual cumulative precipitation and temperature in the national产区 [2][18] - Forecasted precipitation in the national产区 [5] - Forecasted temperature in the national产区 [8] - Past 60 - day actual cumulative precipitation in Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana, Nebraska [11] - Forecasted precipitation in Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana, Nebraska [13] - Past 60 - day actual temperature in Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana, Nebraska [15] - Forecasted temperature in Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana, Nebraska [17] Group 2: Brazilian Soybean and Corn Regions - Forecasted precipitation in the national产区 of soybean and corn [21] - Forecasted temperature in the national产区 of soybean and corn [24] - Past 60 - day actual cumulative precipitation in Mato Grosso (26%), Parana (15%), Rio Grande do Sul (14%), Goias (10%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8%) [28] - Forecasted precipitation in Mato Grosso (26%), Parana (15%), Rio Grande do Sul (14%), Goias (10%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8%) [30] - Past 60 - day actual temperature in Mato Grosso (26%), Parana (15%), Rio Grande do Sul (14%), Goias (10%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8%) [33] - Forecasted temperature in Mato Grosso (26%), Parana (15%), Rio Grande do Sul (14%), Goias (10%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8%) [41] Group 3: Argentine Soybean and Corn Regions - Forecasted precipitation in the national产区 of soybean and corn [46] - Forecasted temperature in the national产区 of soybean and corn [49] - Past 60 - day actual cumulative precipitation in Buenos Aires (31%), Cordoba (28%), Santa Fe (19%), Santiago del Estero (6%), Entre Rios [53] - Forecasted precipitation in Buenos Aires (31%), Cordoba (28%), Santa Fe (19%), Santiago del Estero (6%), Entre Rios [56] - Past 60 - day actual temperature in Buenos Aires (31%), Cordoba (28%), Santa Fe (19%), Santiago del Estero (6%), Entre Rios [58] - Forecasted temperature in Buenos Aires (31%), Cordoba (28%), Santa Fe (19%), Santiago del Estero (6%), Entre Rios [60] Group 4: Canadian Rapeseed Regions - Past 60 - day actual cumulative precipitation and temperature [61] - Forecasted precipitation in the national产区 [65] - Forecasted temperature in the national产区 [70] Group 5: Other Regions' Weather - US overall weather: First - week and second - week precipitation anomalies [75] - Australian weather: First - week cumulative precipitation [76] - Australian cotton main - region reservoir storage chart [79] - Indian weather: First - week precipitation anomaly [87], actual precipitation, monsoon trend [91][92] - Southeast Asian weather [93] - Chinese weather: Maximum and minimum temperatures in the next 3 days, 3 - day and 10 - day precipitation forecasts [99][100][102]
永安期货纸浆早报-20250630
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 05:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - No clear core view presented in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs SP Main Contract Closing Price - On June 27, 2025, the SP main contract closing price was 5096.00, with a 0.59218% increase from the previous day. The closing prices from June 23 - 26 were 5278.00, 5136.00, 5070.00, and 5066.00 respectively, with corresponding daily changes of 3.08594%, -2.69041%, -1.28505%, and -0.07890% [3]. - The converted US - dollar prices on June 23 - 27 were 641.38, 624.56, 617.01, 616.77, and 620.42 respectively [3]. - The Shandong Yinxing basis on June 23 - 27 was 812, 914, 930, 924, and 894 respectively; the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis was 832, 929, 955, 944, and 914 respectively [3]. Import Profit and Price Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, for Canadian pulp, the import profit of Golden Lion (CFR) was 210.36, and that of Lion (CFR) was - 374.53. For Chilean pulp, the import profit of Yinxing (CFR, 90 - day letter of credit) was - 75.55 [4]. - The port US - dollar prices of Golden Lion, Lion, and Yinxing were 780, 730, and 740 respectively, and the Shandong region RMB prices were 6600, 5610, and 5990 respectively [4]. Pulp and Paper Price Averages - From June 23 - 27, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively. The Shandong region average prices also remained unchanged [4]. - For paper products, from June 24 - 27, the cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and the change values were all 0. The life - paper index changed from 839 on June 24 to 831 on June 25 and 26, then back to 839 on June 27, with a net change of 0 [4]. Profit Margin Estimation - The estimated profit margins of double - offset paper on June 24 - 27 were 8.8427%, 9.2155%, 9.5184%, and 9.5184% respectively; for double - copper paper, they were 23.5841%, 23.8925%, 24.1308%, and 24.1308% respectively; for white - card paper, they were - 9.8922%, - 9.6287%, - 9.4252%, and - 9.4252% respectively; for life - paper, they were 10.3465%, 9.3041%, 9.6861%, and 9.6861% respectively [4]. Price Spreads - From June 23 - 27, the softwood - hardwood price spread was 1990, 1960, 1935, 1950, and 1950 respectively; the softwood - natural price spread was 690, 650, 600, 590, and 590 respectively; the softwood - chemimechanical price spread was 2340, 2300, 2250, 2240, and 2240 respectively; the softwood - waste paper price spread was 4514, 4474, 4424, 4414, and 4414 respectively [4].
焦煤日报-20250630
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 05:26
Report Information - Report Title: Coking Coal Daily Report - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center - Date: June 30, 2025 [1] Price and Inventory Data Coal Prices - **Domestic Coking Coal**: The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1113.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 13.00, a monthly decrease of 37.00, and an annual decrease of 36.40%. The price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1170.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly decrease of 30.00, and an annual decrease of 38.42% [2]. - **Imported Coking Coal**: The latest price of Peak Downs is 188.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 1.00, a monthly decrease of 19.00, and an annual decrease of 84.50. The price of Goonyella is 192.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 1.00, a monthly decrease of 16.00, and an annual decrease of 80.50 [2]. - **Port and Warehouse Prices**: The latest price of Raw Coal Port Warehouse Pick - up Price is 731.00, with a daily increase of 7.00, a weekly increase of 13.00, a monthly decrease of 2.00, and an annual decrease of 45.04%. The price of Shaheyi Meng 5 is 1060.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 20.00, a monthly decrease of 80.00, and an annual decrease of 41.11% [2]. Futures Prices - **Futures Contracts**: The latest price of Futures Contract 05 is 873.00, with a daily increase of 14.50, a weekly increase of 28.00, a monthly increase of 55.00, and an annual decrease of 48.28%. The price of Futures Contract 09 is 808.00, with a daily increase of 17.00, a weekly increase of 11.00, a monthly increase of 17.50, and an annual decrease of 47.45% [2]. Inventory Data - **Total Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory is 3939.89, with a weekly decrease of 105.51, a monthly decrease of 136.05, and an annual increase of 17.68% [2]. - **Sub - inventories**: Coal mine inventory is 463.09, with a weekly decrease of 36.06, a monthly decrease of 9.94, and an annual increase of 61.38%. Port inventory is 303.31, with a weekly decrease of 8.71, a monthly increase of 1.75, and an annual increase of 29.34%. Steel mill coking coal inventory is 774.66, with a weekly increase of 0.68, a monthly decrease of 24.09, and an annual increase of 2.70%. Coking plant coking coal inventory is 795.79, with a weekly decrease of 2.28, a monthly decrease of 69.94, and an annual decrease of 13.69% [2] Other Data - **Coking Capacity Utilization**: The latest coking capacity utilization rate is 73.35, with a weekly decrease of 0.22, a monthly decrease of 2.31, and an annual increase of 0.53% [2]. - **Coking Coke Inventory**: The latest coking coke inventory is 87.46, with a weekly increase of 0.07, a monthly increase of 0.16, and an annual increase of 0.18% [2]. - **Futures Basis and Spread**: The 05 basis is - 137.90, with a daily decrease of 14.50, a weekly decrease of 17.80, a monthly decrease of 113.16, and an annual increase of 78.27. The 5 - 9 spread is 65.00, with a daily decrease of 2.50, a weekly increase of 17.00, a monthly increase of 37.50, and an annual decrease of 0.57 [2]
永安期货有色早报-20250630
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 05:19
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is in a tight balance with low inventory and a high risk of squeezing. After the S232 investigation results are released, the market logic may reverse [1]. - The aluminum market has a short - term stable fundamental situation, with supply and demand expected to be balanced in July. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. - The zinc market maintains a short - selling strategy, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets can be held [2]. - For nickel, continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [5]. - The lead market is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, with a slight decrease in supply and weak demand in July [7]. - The tin market can hold long positions cautiously in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - to - long term [10]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to be strong in the short term and will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the medium - to - long term [13]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to continue to face supply surplus and price pressure next week, but the "anti - involution" competition policy may affect sentiment [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 45, the LME inventory decreased by 1,800 tons, and the LME cash - 3M spread changed significantly [1]. - **Market Situation**: The S232 investigation on copper is pending. The US has siphoned a large amount of electrolytic copper, leading to low inventory and a high risk of squeezing. After the investigation results are released, the market logic may change [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 280, and the social inventory remained stable [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increased slightly in 1 - 5 months. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. The market is in a balanced state in terms of supply and demand, and attention should be paid to low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the zinc price fluctuated upward. The domestic TC increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the import TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton. The LME inventory decreased by 625 tons [2]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to increase in July. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is also weak. The short - selling strategy remains unchanged, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets can be held [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 450, and the LME inventory increased by 78 tons [4]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remains high, and the demand is weak. The inventory in overseas nickel plates is stable, and the domestic inventory decreases slightly. Continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The price of waste stainless steel remained stable from June 23 - 27. The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - **Market Situation**: The supply decreased due to production cuts in some steel mills since late May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [5]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the lead price rebounded from a low level. The LME inventory increased by 175 tons [7]. - **Market Situation**: The supply side has some problems, and the demand side is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, and there is a risk of a price - support cycle if the price remains above 17,200 [7]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the tin price fluctuated upward. The LME inventory increased by 60 tons [10]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is affected by the situation in Myanmar, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand in the first half of the year. Cautiously hold long positions in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities in the medium - to - long term [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The base difference strengthened, and the warehouse receipts decreased. The production of leading enterprises decreased significantly, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction [13]. - **Market Situation**: The production of leading enterprises decreased significantly, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, it will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the lithium carbonate price increased due to sentiment speculation. The base difference weakened, and the registered warehouse receipts decreased [15]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to continue to be in surplus next week, and the price is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" competition policy may affect sentiment [15].
永安期货铁合金早报-20250630
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 05:18
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on June 30, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block was 5130, with a weekly increase of 30; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 was 5150, with a weekly increase of 50; the export price of Tianjin 72 was 1020 US dollars, with a weekly decrease of 20 [2]. - For silicon - manganese alloy, on June 30, 2025, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon - manganese alloy at the production area was 5550, with a daily increase of 30 and a weekly increase of 50; the latest price of Ningxia 6517 was 5500, with a daily increase of 30 and a weekly increase of 100 [2]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly production, weekly production (with a capacity share of 95%), and monthly capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - The production data of silicon - manganese alloy in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly production and the purchase volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group [7]. Demand - The demand - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon - manganese alloy in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, such as the estimated and actual production of crude steel, the production and price of metal magnesium, the export volume of silicon ferroalloy, and the demand for silicon - manganese alloy [4][5][8]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly inventory in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as the number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [6]. - The inventory data of silicon - manganese alloy from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China [8]. Cost and Profit - The cost - profit - related data of silicon ferroalloy from 2021 - 2025 are presented, such as electricity prices in different regions, the market price and production profit of semi - coke, and the production cost and profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia [6]. - The cost - profit - related data of silicon - manganese alloy from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including the prices of raw materials such as chemical coke and manganese ore, and the profit of silicon - manganese alloy in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and other regions [7][8].