葉运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 募 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 EC2602 | | 1631.1 | 1.15% 6.07% | 8.3 | 1737 4146/ | | 4501 40111 | -7/31 -28-7 | | | EC2604 | | 1471.9 1072.2 | 1.67% | 167.5 567.2 | 7369 | | 18743 | 42 | | | EC2606 | | 1215.2 | 2.11% | 424.2 | ਦੀ ਰੇ | | 2254 | 63 | | 期货 | EC2608 | | 1339.0 | 2.1 5% | 300.4 | 251 | | 1630 | -20 | | | EC2610 | | 1021.0 | 0.87% | 618.4 | ਰੇਟੇ 4 | | 3975 ...

本周锌价震荡，LME锌0-3M升水增至224美金。供应端，国产和进口TC加速下滑。四季度至明年一季度国产矿边际走 紧，冬储临近，国内冶炼厂内卷矿库存较严重，目前利润尚可，需关注硫酸价格和白银价格的走势对总利润的影响。11 月，火烧云锌锭正式投产(月产量预计在8k-1wt)，其他冶炼厂增量有限，12月多数冶炼厂检修环比预计下滑1万吨以 上。需求端，内需季节性疲软;海外，欧洲需求一般。国内社库震荡下行，海外LE库存去化，升水再次上扬;当前外强内 弱格局下出口窗口已打开，海外已出现部分交仓情况。策略方面，锌国内基本面现实较差，但年底供应端存阶段性减 量，价格重心或较难深跌。短期宏观不确定性增强情况下单边建议观望为主;内外方面，关注反套机会;月差方面，建议 关注01-03的正套机会。 镍 ： 日期 1.5菲律宾镍矿 高镍铁 沪镍现货 金川升贴水 俄镍升贴水 2025/11/24 57.0 - 119900 4350 500 2025/11/25 57.0 - 119500 4450 500 2025/11/26 57.0 - 120450 4650 400 2025/11/27 57.0 - 119150 4650 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - For methanol, Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a resonance rebound between ports and the inland, with a slight strengthening of the basis. Port inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, but considering the large floating storage, it is expected to return to a state of inventory accumulation. In November, Iran shipped 1.1 million tons, and it is difficult to expect a significant decline in imports from December to January. The 01 contract on the futures market offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports, and it is believed that the end - state of the 01 contract will still be high inventory. It is advisable to take advantage of high prices to conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread operation [1]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is at a neutral level compared to the same period. Upstream, the two major oil companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains unchanged. Downstream, raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for the time being. The price of non - standard HD injection molding remains stable, other price differentials fluctuate, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance operations in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has recently decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion situation and the US quotation. In 2025, the pressure from new plants is significant, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [6]. - For polypropylene, the upstream inventory of the two major oil companies and the middle - stream inventory are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate remains stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Currently, downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Against the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face a moderately excessive supply pressure. If exports continue to increase significantly or there are many PDH plant maintenance operations, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - For PVC, the basis of the 01 contract remains at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. During the summer, the northwest plants undergo seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recently, the near - end export orders have slightly declined. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [6]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the动力煤期货price remained at 801. The prices of江苏现货,华南现货,鲁南折盘面,西南折盘面,河北折盘面,西北折盘面, CFR中国, and CFR东南亚 showed various changes. For example, the江苏 spot price increased from 2053 to 2100, and the CFR China price increased from 237 to 247 [1]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Iranian plants have shut down, leading to a resonance rebound between ports and the inland. The basis has strengthened slightly, and port inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, but there is a large amount of floating storage. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation. In November, Iran shipped 1.1 million tons, and it is difficult to expect a significant decline in imports from December to January [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the东北亚乙烯price remained at 730 on some days. The prices of华北LL,华东LL,华东LD,华东HD, LL美金, and LL美湾 showed fluctuations. For example, the华北LL price decreased from 6760 to 6680 and then increased to 6720 [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral compared to the same period. Upstream, the two major oil companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains unchanged. Downstream, raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for the time being [6]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the山东丙烯price changed from 5900 to 6000, and the东北亚丙烯price remained at 695 on some days. The prices of华东PP,华北PP,山东粉料,华东共聚, PP美金, and PP美湾 also showed fluctuations. For example, the华东PP price decreased from 6285 to 6205 and then increased to 6270 [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The upstream inventory of the two major oil companies and the middle - stream inventory are decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate remains stable [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the西北电石price increased from 2450 to 2500, and the山东烧碱price remained at 777 on some days. The prices of电石法 - 华东,乙烯法 - 华东,电石法 - 华南,电石法 - 西北,进口美金价, and出口利润 also showed changes. For example, the电石 - based PVC price in East China increased from 4530 to 4560 [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The basis of the 01 contract remains at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. During the summer, the northwest plants undergo seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports [6].

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/01 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 87440 11040 7.88 三月 87400 10995 7.94 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.03 -1071.50 现货出口 869.25 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22370 3261 6.86 三月 22450 3037 5.62 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.44 -5161.67 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 21450 2819 7.61 三月 21650 2845 7.56 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.31 -1969.45 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119500 14663 8.15 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.13 -1633.66 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market information on the soybean, soybean meal, and palm oil industries, including export sales, planting progress, and price - setting data [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - A private exporter reported selling 312,000 tons of soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 market year [1]. - For the week ending October 16, US soybean export sales net increased by 1.108 million tons, up 41% from the previous week and 34% from the four - week average, with exports loading at 1.7301 million tons, up 150% from the previous week and 173% from the four - week average [1]. - For the week ending October 16, US soybean meal export sales net increased by 543,100 tons, up 52% from the previous week and 288% from the four - week average, with exports loading at 380,400 tons, up 86% from the previous week and 46% from the four - week average [1]. - Patria Agronegocios reported that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean planting rate was 86.97%, lower than 89.54% in the same period last year but higher than the five - year average of 85.13%, and most areas may have lower yields than the 2024/25 season [1]. - The EIA reported that US soybean oil used for biofuel production in September rose to 1.053 billion pounds, up from 1.041 billion pounds in August [1]. - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil in December at $926.14 per ton, lower than $963.75 in November, and the export tariff will drop to $74 from $124 in the previous month [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from November 24 to November 28, 2025 are presented [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - On December 1, 2025, the prices of different grades of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese in various regions and different contract prices on the market are presented, including daily and weekly changes. For example, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon - iron natural block is 5100, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 30; the latest price of the main contract is 5390, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 82 [2]. - Multiple historical price trend charts of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are provided, covering different regions, varieties, and time periods from 2021 - 2025 [3][4][6] Supply - Charts show the production and capacity utilization of 136 silicon - iron production enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025, including monthly and weekly data, and the production of silicon - manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 [4][6] Demand - Demand - related data such as the estimated production of crude steel in China from 2021 - 2025, the production of stainless - steel crude steel in China, and the procurement volume and price of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese by HeSteel Group are presented [4][6][7] Inventory - Inventory data of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are provided, including the inventory of 60 sample silicon - iron enterprises in different regions, the inventory of silicon - manganese in 63 sample enterprises in China, and the inventory average available days in different regions [5][7] Cost and Profit - Cost - related data such as electricity prices in different regions for ferroalloys, the market price of blue - carbon small materials in Shaanxi, and profit - related data such as the production profit of blue - carbon in China, the production cost and profit of silicon - iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the profit of silicon - manganese in different regions are presented [5][7]

| 2025/11/24 | 346.75 | 353.32 | 423.30 | 86.75 | -6.96 | -218.65 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/25 | 345.55 | 352.99 | 423.05 | 86.59 | -7.95 | -217.72 | | 2025/11/26 | 341.18 | 353.51 | 416.41 | 84.88 | -7.91 | -211.70 | | 2025/11/27 | 342.10 | 350.60 | 422.25 | 84.90 | -8.58 | -206.01 | | 2025/11/28 | 347.39 | 356.08 | 422.63 | 86.44 | -8.40 | -217.03 | | 变化 | 5.29 | 5.48 | 0.38 | 1.54 | 0.18 | -11.02 | 新 加 坡 燃 料 油 现 货 | | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/01 | | | --- | --- | --- ...

焦煤日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/12/1 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1505.00 | 0.00 | -140.00 | -70.00 | -3.53% Peak Downs | 215.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 5.30 | -1.00 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 974.00 | -16.00 | -26.00 | -196.00 | -6.35% Goonyella | 214.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 4.30 | -1.50 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1500.00 | 0.00 | -10.00 | 30.00 | -3.23% 盘面05 | 1152.00 | -18.00 | -31.50 | -209.50 | -10.42% | | 安泽主焦 | 1580.00 | 0.00 | -80.00 | -20.00 ...

1. Global Asset Market Performance - Main economies' 10 - year treasury bond yields: US 4.015, UK 4.440, France 3.408, Germany 2.688, Italy 3.398, Spain 3.163, Switzerland 0.149, Greece 3.286, Japan 1.806, Brazil 6.144, China 1.830, South Korea 3.346, Australia 4.515, New Zealand 4.253 [1] - Main economies' 2 - year treasury bond yields: US 3.491, UK 3.736, Germany 2.026, Japan 0.972, Italy 2.175, China (1Y yield) 1.394, South Korea 2.848, Australia 3.807 [1] - USD exchange rates against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.335, Russia (not available), South Africa zar 17.113, South Korean won 1467.300, Thai baht 32.195, Malaysian ringgit 4.133 [1] - RMB exchange rates: On - shore RMB 7.075, Off - shore RMB 7.071, RMB central parity rate 7.079, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.936 [1] - Main economies' stock indices: S&P 500 6849.090, Dow Jones Industrial Average 47716.420, NASDAQ 23365.690, Mexican index 63596.780, UK index 9720.510, France CAC 8122.710, Germany DAX 23836.790, Spanish index 16371.600, Russian index (not available), Nikkei 50253.910, Hang Seng Index 25858.890, Shanghai Composite Index 3888.596, Taiwan index 27626.480, South Korean index 3926.590, Indian index 8508.706, Thai index 1256.690, Malaysian index 1604.470, Australian index 8918.688, Emerging - economy index 1366.920 [1] - Credit bond indices: US investment - grade credit bond index 3552.300, Euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index 266.285, Emerging - economy investment - grade credit bond index 290.250, US high - yield credit bond index 2898.070, Euro - zone high - yield credit bond index 408.890, Emerging - economy high - yield credit bond index 1801.247 [1] 2. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 3888.60, up 0.34%; CSI 300 closing price 4526.66, up 0.25%; SSE 50 closing price 2969.62, down 0.09%; ChiNext closing price 3052.59, up 0.70%; CSI 500 closing price 7031.55, up 1.15% [2] - Valuation: CSI 300 PE(TTM) 13.94, down 0.01; SSE 50 PE(TTM) 11.83, down 0.05; CSI 500 PE(TTM) 32.03, up 0.36; S&P 500 PE(TTM) 27.22, up 0.14; Germany DAX PE(TTM) 18.48, up 0.05 [2] - Risk premium: S&P 500 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate - 0.34, down 0.04; Germany DAX 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate 2.72, down 0.03 [2] - Fund flow: A - share latest value 190.92, 5 - day average - 112.89; Main board latest value 147.52, 5 - day average - 147.45; ChiNext latest value 37.44, 5 - day average 25.57; CSI 300 latest value - 41.10, 5 - day average 0.41 [2] 3. Other Trading Data - Transaction amount: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets latest value 15857.96, down 1239.98; CSI 300 latest value 3418.32, down 759.58; SSE 50 latest value 850.32, down 200.74; SME board latest value 3098.26, down 177.49; ChiNext latest value 4567.21, down 380.14 [3] - Main contract basis: IF basis - 20.86, - 0.46%; IH basis - 6.42, - 0.22%; IC basis - 57.35, - 0.82% [3] - Treasury bond futures: T2303 closing price 108.15, up 0.03%; TF2303 closing price 105.71, up 0.03%; T2306 closing price 107.94, up 0.04%; TF2306 closing price 105.75, down 0.02% [3] - Fund rates: R001 1.4252%, down 9.00 BP; R007 1.5222%, unchanged; SHIBOR - 3M 1.5800%, unchanged [3]

Group 1: Price Performance - London gold price is 4191.05, up 37.10 [2] - London silver price is 53.91, up 0.51 [2] - London platinum price is 1604.00, up 41.00 [2] - London palladium price is 1423.00, up 12.00 [2] - WTI crude oil price is 58.55, unchanged [2] - LME copper price is 10995.00, up 59.50 [2] - Dollar index is 99.55, unchanged [2] - Euro - US dollar exchange rate is 1.16, unchanged [2] - Pound - US dollar exchange rate is 1.32, unchanged [2] - US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate is 156.30, unchanged [2] - US 10 - year TIPS is 1.79, unchanged [2] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX silver inventory is 14248.09, unchanged [2] - SHFE silver inventory is 558.88, up 11.90 [2] - Gold ETF holdings are 1045.43, unchanged [2] - Silver ETF holdings are 15610.54, unchanged [2] - SGE silver inventory is 822.42, unchanged [2] - SGE gold deferred fee payment direction changes by - 1.00 [2] - SGE silver deferred fee payment direction is 1, unchanged [2]