2025.07.21-07.25 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 工业硅期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 工业硅期货目前处于震荡筑底过程中。 中线趋势判断 1 n 上周策略回顾 工业硅价格筑底震荡运行，可考虑回调逢低少量做多。 n 本周策略建议 工业硅价格筑底震荡运行，可考虑回调逢低少量做多。 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格小幅上涨，截至7月18日新疆地区421#价格8900元/吨， 云南地区421#价格9900元/吨，四川地区421#价格9450元/吨。长城期货AI 智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在上升通道中。资金方面， 主力显示出较强的偏空情绪。 工业硅2509期货价格支撑位在7800—8200区间，建议逢低少量做多。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mystee ...

2025.07.21-07.25 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 趋势判断逻辑 上周纯碱期货市场整体呈现震荡走势。从现货市场来看，国内纯碱 行业供需格局偏弱，整体开工率仍维持在84.10%左右，行业产能利 用率较高，预计未来市场供应增加。库存方面持续累积，反映出当 前市场供过于求的压力仍在。需求端，光伏玻璃行业"反内卷"政 策持续推进，日熔量下降，对纯碱需求形成拖累；而轻碱需求虽略 有改善，但整体交投仍以刚需为主，市场活跃度不高。综合来看， 纯碱行业面临高库存、弱需求的挑战。预计未来保持稳中震荡运行。 2 中线策略建议 3 建议观望 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 上周纯碱期货震荡。现货市场供需偏弱，开工率 84.10%，供 应预计增加，库存累积显供过于求。需求端，光伏玻璃日熔 量降拖累需求，轻碱需求略改善但交投以刚需为主。行业面 临高库存、弱需求，预计稳中震荡。预期纯碱2509运行区间 1150-1300。可考虑观望。 相关数据情况 纯碱：开工率：中国（周） 纯碱：产量：中国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with an overall upward - biased trend in August. The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is at the lowest level of the year. August is the window period for the transition between the off - season and peak season of downstream industries. With the temporary easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. Additionally, with the implementation of domestic anti - involution and stable - growth policies, the supply and demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically [5][12]. - The aluminum price is expected to maintain an upward - biased oscillation, with a fluctuation range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,500 - 21,100 [12][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend judgment: Large - range oscillations, with an overall upward - biased trend in August. The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is at the lowest level of the year. August is the window period for the transition between the off - season and peak season of downstream industries. With the temporary easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. Additionally, with the implementation of domestic anti - involution and stable - growth policies, the supply and demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically [5]. - Strategy suggestion: Hold long positions at low levels in the mid - term [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The range of Shanghai Aluminum 2509 in the coming week was expected to be 20,200 - 20,900. Appropriate long positions could be established near the lower end of the range [7]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,500 - 21,100. Appropriate long positions could be established near the lower end of the range [8]. - Hedging suggestion for spot enterprises: Consider allocating an appropriate amount of virtual futures inventory at low prices [9]. Overall Viewpoint Bauxite Market - Starting from August, the import of bauxite from Guinea to China is expected to decrease. Overall, the import volume of domestic bauxite in the second half of the year is expected to decline compared with the first half, and there is a risk that the monthly balance of bauxite may turn into a deficit. However, considering that some enterprises have stocked up in advance to cope with the rainy season, the supply - demand contradiction of bauxite is not expected to be significant in the short term. The price of bauxite in the third quarter is expected to remain stable. If the shipment volume remains low and domestic bauxite inventory continues to decline, the contradiction will gradually become prominent, and the bauxite price may turn upward in the fourth quarter [10]. Alumina Market - As of July 18, the built - in production capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina was about 111.75 million tons, the operating capacity was about 92.2 million tons, and the operating rate was about 83.61%, up from about 83.28% last week, showing an overall upward trend since the end of May. There is a new production capacity project in Guangtou Beihai in Q3, and the operating capacity of alumina still has the potential to refresh the historical peak in the first half of the year. However, there are many factors disturbing the ore supply from Guinea in the second half of the year [10]. Production of Electrolytic Aluminum - According to Aladdin, the current operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 44.2 million tons, and the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Q3 is at the lowest level of the year [10]. Import and Export - The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is currently about 1,200 yuan/ton, down from about 1,350 yuan/ton last week. Since February 2025, China's aluminum exports have been increasing. Although the growth rate has declined due to tariff disturbances since April, overall, exports remain resilient [10]. Demand - Aluminum profiles: The weekly operating rate of the domestic aluminum profile industry increased by 1 percentage point to 50.5% this week, mainly due to the increase in orders for automotive profiles from some enterprises, while the operating rate of building profiles remained weak [11]. - Aluminum plates, strips, and foils: The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises remained stable at 63.2%. In mid - to late July, the probability of an increase in the operating rate driven by improved demand is extremely low. During the transition period between the off - season and peak season in August, if the aluminum price remains relatively stable, downstream customers' stocking actions for the peak season may bring about a wave of demand recovery. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 69.6%. The overall demand in the aluminum foil market continued to be weak this week. As it is the traditional consumption off - season from July to August, there is no hope for a recovery in terminal demand, and the operating rate of the aluminum foil industry is expected to continue to decline in the short term [11]. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62% this week, showing signs of bottoming out and recovery. In the final year of the "14th Five - Year Plan", the supervision of power grid construction is still urgent. Coupled with the relatively abundant backlog of orders from enterprises, there is still a window period for concentrated deliveries in the second half of the year, which will drive the operating rate of aluminum cables and aluminum consumption after August [11]. - Alloys: The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry remained stable at 54.0%. The performance in mid - July was better than the previous weak and stable situation, maintaining a game pattern of "dominated by molten aluminum allocation and demand suppressed by aluminum prices". The exports of primary aluminum alloys and aluminum wheels may enter a deep adjustment period in the second half of the year, and a substantial recovery will depend on clear policies and the alleviation of cost pressures. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 53.4% this week, mainly due to the shortage of raw materials and the reduction in demand. Constrained by both raw materials and orders, the operating rate of the industry is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [11]. Inventory - Electrolytic aluminum: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 490,000 tons, an increase of about 5% compared with the week before last and a decrease of about 39% compared with the same period last year. Recently, the purchasing and stocking sentiment of downstream customers has improved, and the demand in the aluminum cable sector still has some support during the off - season. The sustainability of the inventory build - up of aluminum ingots still needs to be observed, but the situation of inventory remaining at a historical low level in the same period is difficult to change for the time being. The inventory of aluminum rods is 153,200 tons, a decrease of about 2% compared with last week and an increase of about 10% compared with the same period last year. Although the production cuts by aluminum rod manufacturers have reduced the arrival pressure on the supply side, the current replenishment of rigid demand is mainly a short - term boost, and the off - season theme of downstream industries has not changed. Therefore, from a long - term perspective, the inventory of aluminum rods will still maintain an upward trend, and the general trend has not changed significantly. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been increasing slightly since July, after a continuous slight decline since May 2024, but it is still at a low level since 1990 [11]. Alumina Profit - The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is currently about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 550 yuan/ton, the same as last week [12]. Electrolytic Aluminum Profit - The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is currently about 17,500 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,200 yuan/ton, down from 3,300 yuan/ton last week. The profit is at a relatively high level [12]. Market Expectation - Policy expectations continue to ferment, and social inventory is at a low level in recent years; overseas tariff negotiations have been postponed, and export orders have recovered in the short term. However, the marginal demand during the off - season is weakening, and the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises is under pressure; the expectation of the Fed's interest rate decision is disturbing, and the recent rebound of the US dollar index has suppressed metal prices. The aluminum price is expected to maintain an upward - biased oscillation, with a fluctuation range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton [12]. Personal View - The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is at the lowest level of the year. August is the window period for the transition between the off - season and peak season of downstream industries. With the temporary easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. Additionally, with the implementation of domestic anti - involution and stable - growth policies, the supply and demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically. Looking forward to the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,500 - 21,100 [12]. Key Concerns - Whether the inventory of LME and domestic electrolytic aluminum will increase more than expected. - Whether the import window for aluminum ingots will open [12]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of various aluminum - related products and raw materials have shown different degrees of change. For example, the price of bauxite from Guinea remained stable at 73 US dollars/dry ton, while the price of动力煤 (Q5500平仓价) at Jingtang Port increased by 1.73% week - on - week [13]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of various aluminum - related products and raw materials has also changed. For example, the port inventory of bauxite increased slightly this week, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 7.59% week - on - week [14]. Supply - Demand Situation - The operating rate of the domestic aluminum processing industry increased by 0.2 percentage points to 58.8% this week, driven by the slight increase in the weekly operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum cables. Overall, the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing is expected to continue to be under pressure next week [22][23]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is still in a relatively strong pattern. The adjustment of Shanghai Aluminum at the beginning of last week was mainly concentrated in the near - end, reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards high prices during the off - season. However, the attitude of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology towards the high - quality development of the copper and aluminum industries near the weekend may further open the prelude to Supply - side 2.0, and it should be treated as a relatively strong situation [27]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is currently about - 1,330 yuan/ton, down from - 1,260 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may have a drag on the electrolytic aluminum price [33][34]. Market Capital Situation - LME aluminum: The net long position has been increasing slightly in the past 10 weeks. Since May, the short - selling camp has been reducing positions overall, and the long - buying camp has been increasing positions slightly since early June. The market is expected to be dominated by a relatively strong oscillation recently [35]. - SHFE electrolytic aluminum: The net long position of the main contract has remained stable this week. Since early July, both the long - buying and short - selling camps have slightly reduced positions to cope. The net long position of funds mainly for financial speculation has continued to decrease slightly. The net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has increased slightly. From the performance of the main funds, the market is expected to oscillate at a high level next week [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The soda ash futures market is in a weak oscillation phase, with supply and demand contradictions prominent and prices expected to remain in low - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see. The expected operating range of soda ash 2509 is 1150 - 1300 [6][11][12] - The glass futures market is in an oscillatory trend, with high inventory and weak demand. It is expected to operate weakly in an oscillatory manner. It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see. The expected operating range of glass 2509 is 950 - 1150 [31][34][35] 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The soda ash market was in a weak oscillation last week, with prices falling differentially. Light soda ash was priced at 940 - 1440 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash at 960 - 1490 yuan/ton. Supply had minor fluctuations due to maintenance and复产, while demand was weak. The futures first declined and then rebounded briefly but faced limited upside due to prominent supply - demand contradictions. It is expected to maintain low - level oscillation, and changes in production capacity, inventory, and demand should be monitored. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [6] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: At the beginning of last week, soda ash rose due to policy benefits and sentiment but fell the next day. The industry's fundamentals were weak, with high开工, high inventory, high production capacity, and downstream glass production reduction expectations suppressing demand. The price was pressured by glass and was expected to oscillate in the short term, with the expected operating range of soda ash 2509 being 1150 - 1300. It was advisable to wait and see [11] - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The soda ash market was in a weak oscillation last week, with prices falling differentially. Supply had minor fluctuations, demand was weak, and the futures had a short - term rebound but limited upside. It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, with the expected operating range of soda ash 2509 being 1150 - 1300. It is advisable to wait and see [12] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - Relevant data include China's weekly soda ash开工 rate, production, light and heavy soda ash inventory, basis (daily), and ammonia - soda production cost in North China (weekly). The main force is relatively bearish, with a multi - empty flow of - 76.3, rapid inflow of main - force funds (energy of 84.1), and high risk of market reversal (multi - empty divergence of 92.1) [13][17][19][23] Glass Futures 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The 5mm float glass market was stable with narrow oscillations last week, with limited price fluctuations. Supply remained stable, demand was regionally differentiated, and the market was in a wait - and - see state. The futures were oscillating weakly, suppressed by high inventory and weak demand, with cost and production reduction expectations limiting the decline. It is expected to operate weakly in an oscillatory manner, and the mid - line strategy is to hold an empty position and wait and see [31] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The float glass price oscillated last week, with some local areas rising slightly. The core of the market was inventory reduction. High inventory pressure persisted, and supply - demand did not improve significantly. It was expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited rebound space. The expected operating range of glass 2509 was 950 - 1150, and it was advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [34] - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The 5mm float glass market was stable with narrow oscillations last week, with small price fluctuations. Supply was stable, demand was differentiated, and the market was in a wait - and - see state. It is expected that glass 2509 will operate in the range of 950 - 1150, and it is advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [35] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - Relevant data include China's weekly float glass production,开工 rate, production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, basis (daily), and ending inventory. The main - force inclination is not obvious, with a multi - empty flow of - 7.5, a slight inflow of main - force funds (energy of 20.6), and high risk of market reversal (multi - empty divergence of 94.9) [36][40][42][44][47]

Group 1: General Information - Report period: July 14 - 18, 2025 [1] - Report title: Weekly Report on Rebar and Iron Ore Futures [2] Group 2: Rebar Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - The main contract of rebar futures has entered the third week of the red energy ladder area according to the Great Wall Futures AI intelligent big - data quantitative strategy model [7] - The weekly output of rebar is 2.16 million tons, the apparent consumption is 2.21 million tons, the inventory of major steel mills is 1.8 million tons, and the social inventory is 5.56 million tons [7] - The daily - level price of rebar futures is in an upward channel, and the long - side camp of the main force has a slight advantage [7] - Steel spot enterprises can consider a 70% long - side hedging plan [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The main contract of rebar futures entered the second week of the red energy ladder area [10] - This week's strategy suggestion: The main contract of rebar futures is in the third week of the red energy ladder area in the mid - term trend [11] - Hedging suggestion for spot enterprises: Steel spot enterprises can consider implementing a 70% long - side hedging strategy step by step [12] 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [16][29] - Variety diagnosis: The long - short flow shows that the main force is slightly long, the capital energy is basically stable, and there is a certain degree of sentiment divergence [26] Group 3: Iron Ore Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - The main contract of iron ore futures has entered the second week of the mid - term red energy stage area according to the Great Wall Futures AI intelligent data model [35] - In terms of supply, the global shipment volume of iron ore last week was 2.994 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major ports in China was 2.483 million tons, the inventory of steel enterprises was 8.979 million tons, and the inventory of domestic major ports was 13.765 million tons [35] - The AI intelligent investment consultation of Great Wall Futures shows that iron ore is operating in the red stage area [35] - Spot enterprises can consider implementing a long - side hedging strategy step by step [35] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The main contract of iron ore futures entered the first week of the mid - term red energy stage area [38] - This week's strategy suggestion: Spot enterprises can consider implementing a long - side hedging strategy step by step [38] 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [41][54] - Variety diagnosis and selected indicator situations are mentioned but specific details are not fully provided [50][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend. Shanghai Silver futures are in a sideways trend, also at the end of the trend. For both gold and silver, it is recommended to wait and see. The prices of gold and silver are influenced by multiple factors such as trade policies, the US dollar index, and industrial demand [7][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - Trend judgment logic: US tariff policies have raised concerns about global economic recession and supply chain disruptions, increasing gold's safe - haven demand. Although the rising US dollar index suppresses gold prices, the strong demand for gold shows concerns about the US dollar's credit. The overall inflow of funds into gold ETFs is still strong, and central banks, especially the People's Bank of China, have continuously increased their gold holdings. The reduced expectation of a July interest rate cut and the increased expectation of a September cut also support gold prices [7]. - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The short - term trend of the gold main contract 2510 was bearish, with support at 754 - 760 and resistance at 784 - 790 [11]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The gold main contract 2510 is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct grid trading in the range of 760 - 782 [12]. 3.3 Relevant Data - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, the US dollar index, the US dollar against the offshore RMB, the gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and the gold's internal - external price difference [17][19][21]. Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is sideways, currently at the end of the trend [30]. - Trend judgment logic: The increase in trade concerns last week boosted silver's safe - haven demand. The repair logic of the gold - silver ratio, the weakening US dollar index, and geopolitical tensions support silver from a financial perspective. The continuous growth of silver demand in the photovoltaic and electric vehicle industries strengthens its fundamentals. However, the industrial nature of silver may limit its price increase if the risk of global economic recession intensifies [30]. - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [31]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The silver contract 2510 was expected to be strong, with support in the range of 8800 - 8900 [33]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The silver contract 2510 is expected to be strong, with support in the range of 8400 - 8500 and resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33]. 3.3 Relevant Data - The report shows data on the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and the silver's internal - external price difference [39][41][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range fluctuations, with an overall upward - biased trend in July and August [5][13]. - In the short term, aluminum prices may fluctuate with a slight upward bias, with the upper pressure level around 21,000 yuan [13]. - Considering the current off - season and weak downstream new orders, the spot premium continues to decline, which may put pressure on aluminum prices in the next 1 - 2 weeks. However, due to factors such as the easing of Sino - US trade confrontation, anti - involution, a 45 million - ton supply ceiling, and uncertainties in overseas mine disturbances, the downside space is limited. The range of Shanghai Aluminum 2508 in the next week is expected to be between 20,200 and 20,900 yuan [5][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a large - range fluctuation, expected to be upward - biased in July and August. Although the spot premium decline may pressure aluminum prices in the next 1 - 2 weeks, the downside space is limited due to multiple factors [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: New orders are suitable for short - term trading in a high - level fluctuating market [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The expected fluctuation range of Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract last week was 20,300 - 20,800 yuan, and short - term trading was recommended [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The expected range of Shanghai Aluminum 2508 this week is 20,200 - 20,900 yuan. Appropriate long positions can be arranged near the lower end of the range [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventory at low prices [9]. 3.3 Overall Viewpoint - **Aluminum Ore Market**: From August, China's bauxite imports from Guinea are expected to decrease. The annual import volume in the second half of the year may decline compared to the first half, with a risk of a supply - demand gap. The price is expected to remain stable in the third quarter and may turn upward in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Alumina Market**: As of July 11, the domestic metallurgical alumina production capacity was about 111.75 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 91.9 million tons and an operating rate of about 82%. There is room for the operating capacity to reach a new high in the third quarter. The 95% percentile cash cost and full cost are in the ranges of [2800, 3000] and [3000, 3200] yuan/ton respectively [11]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The cumulative production from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity was 96% at the end of June, remaining stable month - on - month and 0.32% higher than the same period last year [11]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1350 yuan/ton. Since February 2025, domestic aluminum exports have been growing, and although the growth rate has declined due to tariff disturbances since April, they still show resilience [11]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of the aluminum profile industry remained stable at 49.5%. The operating rate of the aluminum plate and strip industry decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 63.2%, and that of the aluminum foil industry remained stable at 69.6%. The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 61.6%. The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry increased by 0.2 percentage points to 54.0%, and that of the recycled aluminum industry remained stable at 53.6% [12]. - **Inventory**: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 465,000 tons, a decrease of about 2% from the previous two weeks and about 41% from the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 156,800 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and about 8% from the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased slightly this week [12]. - **Profit**: The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 550 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,500 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3300 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Expectation**: Affected by the frequent adjustment of US tariff policies, the commodity market is more volatile. The supply side is stable, the demand side is weak, and the spot basis has widened. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate with a slight upward bias in the short term, with the upper pressure level around 21,000 yuan [13]. 3.4 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The price of bauxite from Guinea decreased slightly, while the prices of bauxite from Australia and Indonesia remained stable. The price of alumina increased slightly, and the price of electrolytic aluminum was relatively strong. The price of aluminum alloy and aluminum rods also increased slightly [14]. - The overall supply of domestic alumina is in surplus, but due to uncertainties in the mine end and anti - involution, the downside space is limited, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 2800 - 3300 yuan [14]. - The price of electrolytic aluminum is supported by strong costs and restricted by weak demand. It is expected that the price of ADC12 will maintain a weak and narrow - range fluctuation pattern in July [14]. 3.5 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite decreased slightly, the alumina inventory increased slightly, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the aluminum rod inventory increased. The LME aluminum inventory continued to increase [16][17]. 3.6 Supply and Demand Situation - For the whole year of 2025, the domestic aluminum supply - demand is expected to be tighter than in 2024. It may experience seasonal surplus in July and tighten up after August [18]. - The domestic alumina supply is in surplus in 2025, and the year - on - year growth rate of production is expected to be higher than that of demand in the third quarter [20]. - The overall operating rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6%. Different sectors showed different trends, but generally faced downward pressure [25]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is still relatively strong, but the strength has weakened compared to June. Aluminum prices may fluctuate at a high level in mid - to late July [30]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1260 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [37][38]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - For the LME aluminum variety, the net long position has continued to rise slightly. Since May, the short position has been reduced, and the long position has increased slightly since early June. The market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias [40]. - For the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum variety, the net long position of the main force has continued to increase slightly. The long - position camp has remained stable, and the short - position camp has decreased slightly. The net long position of financial speculation - based funds has decreased slightly, and the net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has remained stable. The market may fluctuate at a high level next week [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal futures are expected to continue oscillating. The domestic oil mills maintain a high operating rate, with a high - level soybean crushing volume, but the downstream demand is weak, leading to continuous accumulation of soybean meal inventory. Meanwhile, the good weather in US soybean - producing areas strengthens the expectation of a loose supply, but there are also supporting factors such as the continuous strengthening of Brazilian premiums and the key price level of US soybeans. Also, the uncertainty of US trade tariff policies causes concerns about the soybean supply in the fourth quarter [6]. - The soybean oil futures are in a stage of wide - range oscillation. The concentrated arrival of soybeans and high - level oil mill crushing volume, combined with the seasonal off - season of terminal consumption and weak downstream purchasing demand, result in continuous accumulation of soybean oil inventory. However, there is support from the US biodiesel policy expectation, palm oil market, and cost - side factors due to the strengthening of Brazilian soybean discounts [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The main soybean meal contract is in a sideways oscillation stage. - Trend judgment logic: In the 27th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3322 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.56%. The soybean meal inventory was 822,400 tons, an increase of 130,800 tons or 18.91% from the previous week. The high operating rate of domestic oil mills, high - level soybean crushing volume, weak downstream demand, good weather in US soybean - producing areas, strengthening of Brazilian premiums, the key price level of US soybeans, and the uncertainty of US trade tariff policies all affect the market. - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was sideways, with slightly more long - side funds. The M2509 contract was expected to continue oscillating in the range of 2880 - 3080. - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is sideways, with strongly short - side funds. The M2509 contract is expected to continue oscillating in the range of 2880 - 3080 [9][10]. 3.1.3 Variety Diagnosis - The variety diagnosis shows that the main funds are strongly short - side, with a multi - short flow of - 95.5. The fund energy is - 62.3, indicating a relatively large outflow of funds. The multi - short divergence is 99.7, suggesting a high risk of market reversal [14]. 3.1.4 Related Data - The data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department. The related data involve weekly production, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio of soybean meal [18][20][23]. 3.2 Soybean Oil Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The main soybean oil contract is in a wide - range oscillation stage. - Trend judgment logic: In the 27th week, the actual soybean oil production of 125 oil mills was 443,100 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.0197 million tons, an increase of 64,500 tons from the previous week. The concentrated arrival of soybeans, high - level oil mill crushing volume, seasonal off - season of terminal consumption, and weak downstream purchasing demand lead to inventory accumulation. There is also support from the US biodiesel policy expectation, palm oil market, and cost - side factors. - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [29]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was sideways, with slightly short - side funds. The Y2509 contract was expected to continue wide - range oscillation in the range of 7800 - 8100 in the short term. - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is sideways, with relatively short - side funds. The Y2509 contract is expected to maintain wide - range oscillation in the range of 7800 - 8100 in the short term [32]. 3.2.3 Related Data - The data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department. The related data involve weekly production, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, and weekly port inventory of soybean oil and soybeans [41][42][46]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - Industrial silicon futures are currently in the process of bottom - building with oscillations. Last week, the spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows that the daily price is in an upward channel, and the main force has a relatively obvious bullish attitude. The price of industrial silicon 2509 futures fluctuates between 7500 - 9100, and it is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [6][7]. - Lithium carbonate futures are currently in the process of finding the bottom with oscillations. Last week, the spot price of lithium carbonate increased. The AI variety diagnosis report shows that the daily line of lithium carbonate futures is basically in an upward channel, and the main force shows a strong bullish sentiment. The price of lithium carbonate 2509 futures fluctuates between 57000 - 67000, and it is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [34][35]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - Trend: In the process of bottom - building with oscillations. As of July 11, the 421 price in Xinjiang was 8650 yuan/ton, in Yunnan was 9900 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9450 yuan/ton. The AI report shows the daily price in an upward channel, and the main force is bullish [6]. - Strategy: The price of industrial silicon 2509 futures fluctuates between 7500 - 9100, and it is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy: The price of industrial silicon was in a bottom - finding and oscillating state, and it was advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the decline [10]. - This week's strategy: The price of industrial silicon is in a bottom - building and oscillating state, and it is advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the decline [11]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it was at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [13]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. It was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [17]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - Trend: In the process of finding the bottom with oscillations. As of July 11, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62900 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 61500 yuan/ton. The AI report shows the daily line in an upward channel, and the main force is bullish [34][35]. - Strategy: The price of lithium carbonate 2509 futures fluctuates between 57000 - 67000, and it is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [35]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy: The price of lithium carbonate was in a bottom - finding and oscillating state, and it was advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the decline [38]. - This week's strategy: The price of lithium carbonate is in a bottom - finding and oscillating state, and it is advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the decline [39]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [42]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. It was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [43]

Group 1: Industrial Silicon Futures Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Both industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures are currently in the process of bottom - hunting oscillations, and it is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [6][29] Summary by Directory 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: Industrial silicon futures are in the process of bottom - hunting oscillations [6] - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the spot market price of industrial silicon mainly increased slightly. As of July 3, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 8450 yuan/ton, in Yunnan was 9900 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9600 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures shows that the daily line of industrial silicon price is in an upward channel [6] - Mid - term strategy suggestion: The price fluctuation range of industrial silicon 2509 futures is 7000 - 8600, and it is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The industrial silicon price showed a slightly stronger oscillating trend, and it was advisable to consider buying call options [10] - This week's strategy suggestion: The industrial silicon price is in a bottom - hunting oscillating operation, and it is advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the correction [10] 3. Relevant Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. From a seasonal perspective, the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [12] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. From a seasonal perspective, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [16] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Futures Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Both industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures are currently in the process of bottom - hunting oscillations, and it is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [6][29] Summary by Directory 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: Lithium carbonate futures are in the process of bottom - hunting oscillations [29] - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the spot price of lithium carbonate increased. As of July 3, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 61,900 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 60,400 yuan/ton. The market has sufficient available supply, and downstream enterprises mainly have rigid replenishment demand. Technically, the AI variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures shows that the daily line of lithium carbonate futures is basically in an upward channel [30] - Mid - term strategy suggestion: The price fluctuation range of lithium carbonate 2509 futures is 57,000 - 67,000, and it is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [30] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The price of lithium carbonate showed a slightly stronger oscillating trend, and it was advisable to consider buying call options [33] - This week's strategy suggestion: The price of lithium carbonate is in a bottom - hunting oscillating operation, and it is advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the correction [34] 3. Relevant Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. From a seasonal perspective, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [36] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. From a seasonal perspective, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [38]