Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash futures market is in a weak oscillation phase, and the glass futures market is also in an oscillatory trend. Due to the weak fundamentals of both industries, including high inventory, high production capacity, and subdued downstream demand, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for both soda ash and glass futures [6][30]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The soda ash futures are in a weak oscillation. Last week, the market oscillated. On July 2nd, it rebounded due to policy and sentiment but dropped the next day. The industry's fundamentals are weak with high inventory and capacity, and the downstream glass industry's production cut expectations suppress demand. The overall supply is ample, and the price is pressured by the glass industry. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, and it is advisable to wait and see [6]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The soda ash industry's high operating rate led to unchanged supply, while downstream glass demand was low. Without capacity adjustment or demand recovery, the futures price may oscillate weakly. The expected operating range for soda ash 2509 was 1150 - 1300, and it was recommended to stay on the sidelines [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The industry fundamentals remain weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the expected operating range for soda ash 2509 being 1150 - 1300. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Related Data Situation** - The report lists data such as China's weekly soda ash operating rate, production, light and heavy - quality inventory, basis, and ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][15][18]. - The main capital indicators show that the long - short flow is - 77.1 (more bearish), the capital energy is 78.3 (significant capital inflow), and the long - short divergence is 92.7 (high risk of market reversal) [22]. Glass Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The glass market is in an oscillatory trend. Last week, the float glass price oscillated. The industry's operating rate was over 75%, and the production was 110.34 tons, a slight increase. Although the price in some areas rose slightly, the overall market focused on inventory reduction. High inventory pressure persists, and the supply - demand relationship has not improved significantly. It is expected that the price will oscillate with limited rebound space, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [30]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The domestic 5mm float glass market was regionally differentiated. The futures price rose slightly due to sentiment but was restricted by high inventory and weak demand. It was expected to continue oscillating, with the expected operating range for glass 2509 being 950 - 1150, and it was recommended to stay on the sidelines [33]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The float glass price oscillated last week. The market's core is still inventory reduction. High inventory pressure continues, and the supply - demand relationship has not improved significantly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the expected operating range for glass 2509 being 950 - 1150. It is recommended to wait and see [34]. - **Related Data Situation** - The report lists data such as China's weekly float glass production, operating rate, production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, basis, and ending inventory [35][40][42]. - The main capital indicators show that the long - short flow is - 98.8 (more bearish), the capital energy is 40.1 (slight capital inflow), and the long - short divergence is 97.5 (high risk of market reversal) [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term trend of electrolytic aluminum is a large - range oscillation. New orders are suitable for short - term trading in a high - level oscillation market. The future week's fluctuation range of the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract is expected to be between 20300 - 20800 yuan/ton, and short - term trading is recommended. Spot enterprises can consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventories at low prices [5][8]. - Domestically, supportive policies continue to be implemented, but the electrolytic aluminum production is approaching the bottleneck with limited incremental output this year. Overseas, there is high macro - uncertainty. The global primary aluminum production growth rate in 2025 is expected to be only 1.9%. The export of aluminum products in the second half of the year has great uncertainties [5][9]. - Affected by the off - season, aluminum processing enterprises generally have weak new orders, and the operating rate is under pressure. It is expected that the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing will continue to decline slightly next week [10][24][25]. - The aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. The price of the aluminum rod market next week is expected to oscillate between 20000 - 20800 yuan/ton [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The mid - term trend presents a large - range oscillation. Domestic supportive policies continue to be implemented, production is approaching the bottleneck with limited incremental output this year, but overseas macro - uncertainty is high. New orders are suitable for short - term trading in a high - level oscillation market [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The fluctuation range of the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract in the future week was expected to be between 20300 - 20900 yuan/ton [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The fluctuation range of the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract in the future week is expected to be between 20300 - 20800 yuan/ton, and short - term trading is recommended. Spot enterprises can consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventories at low prices [8]. Overall Viewpoint - **Aluminum Bauxite Market**: In June, China's aluminum bauxite production decreased by 3.2% month - on - month and increased by 4.1% year - on - year. Recently, domestic production has declined due to inspections and is expected to recover after the inspections end. In July, the arrival of imported aluminum bauxite in China is expected to remain high, but the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to gradually emerge [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of July 3, China's alumina production capacity was 110.82 million tons, the operating capacity was 88.63 million tons, and the weekly national operating rate was 79.97%, a decrease of 0.31% from last week. In the second half of the year, both domestic and overseas supply and demand will be in an oversupply situation, but the degree of oversupply has narrowed compared with the first quarter [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: As of the end of June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.82 million tons, and the production in June increased by 1.57% year - on - year. The resumption of production in Yunnan, Sichuan and other places is nearing completion, and new production capacity is difficult to release due to environmental protection policies and energy consumption dual - control. Overseas production is limited by high energy costs, and the overall capacity utilization rate is high. The global primary aluminum production growth rate in 2025 is expected to be only 1.9% [9]. - **Import and Export**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1350 yuan/ton. The export of aluminum products in the second half of the year has great uncertainties. It may maintain a certain resilience or even perform better than expected, but it may also face significant downward pressure [9]. - **Demand**: The national profile operating rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5% this week. Affected by the off - season, aluminum processing enterprises generally have weak new orders and the operating rate is under pressure [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased by about 3% compared with the previous week and decreased by about 39% compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate next week. The inventory of aluminum rods increased by about 9% compared with last week and was about 9% higher than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has increased slightly in the past two weeks [10][14][15]. - **Profit**: Currently, the average cash cost of China's alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 500 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17400 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3300 yuan/ton, which is at a relatively high level [11]. - **Market Expectation**: Domestically, favorable policies continue to be strengthened, and the direction of promoting consumption remains unchanged. Overseas, the macro - situation is mixed with risks. It is expected that the aluminum price will oscillate at a high level in the short term, and the price of the aluminum rod market next week will oscillate between 20000 - 20800 yuan/ton [11]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of domestic aluminum ore remain stable, and the spot trading in the imported ore market is light. The price of动力煤is expected to remain strong in the short term. The spot price of alumina has increased slightly, and the price of the aluminum rod market next week is expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3050 yuan/ton [12]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported aluminum bauxite has decreased slightly. The alumina inventory has remained relatively stable. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas is expected to continue to accumulate, and the inventory of aluminum rods has increased significantly. The LME aluminum inventory has continued to accumulate [14][15][16]. Supply and Demand Situation - **Profit**: The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 500 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17400 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3300 yuan/ton [18]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% this week. Affected by factors such as high aluminum prices, insufficient profits, and weak downstream demand, it is expected that the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing will continue to decline slightly next week [24][25]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is still in a relatively strong pattern, but the market has low expectations for the upward space of the aluminum price in the second half of the year [29]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1260 yuan/ton, which is lower than last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [35][36]. Market Capital Situation - The net long position of the LME aluminum variety has continued to rise slightly in the past 8 weeks. The short - selling camp has reduced positions in the past month, and the long - buying camp has increased positions in the latest period. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [37].

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on gold and silver futures from July 7th to July 11th, 2025, covering market analysis, trading strategies, and relevant data for both metals [1][2] Gold Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend. Short - term fluctuations are driven by the dollar and Fed policy expectations, while long - term factors like de - dollarization, fiscal deficits, and central bank gold purchases support the price. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is upward, possibly at the end of the trend [7] - **Judgment Logic**: Last week, the gold price was mainly influenced by the dollar and Fed policy expectations. Dollar weakness and rising rate - cut expectations drove the price up in the first half of the week, while better - than - expected non - farm data led to a price drop in the second half. Geopolitical risks and inflation data provided intermittent support. In the long run, de - dollarization, fiscal deficits, and central bank gold purchases (95% of central banks plan to increase holdings in 2025) support the price, but short - term data fluctuations and position adjustments should be watched [7] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The short - term trend of the gold main contract 2510 was bearish, with support at 754 - 760 and resistance at 784 - 790 [11] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The short - term trend of the gold main contract 2510 remains bearish, with support at 754 - 760 and resistance at 784 - 790 [12] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report presents data on Shanghai gold and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, the dollar index, the US dollar against the offshore RMB, the gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price differences through charts [19][21][23] Silver Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is sideways, currently at the beginning of the trend. Although short - term fluctuations are intensifying, silver shows an upward - moving central tendency due to its "safe - haven + industrial" dual attributes. It is recommended to wait and see [31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is sideways, currently at the beginning of the trend [31] - **Judgment Logic**: Last week, silver prices fluctuated upward. Bullish factors included weakened dollar credit, Fed rate - cut expectations, resilient industrial demand, and technical breakthroughs. Bearish factors were better - than - expected non - farm data delaying rate cuts and high silver inventories (global visible inventory of 15,523 tons). Despite short - term volatility, the upward - moving central tendency remains unchanged [31] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [31] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The silver contract 2510 was expected to be strong, with support at 8400 - 8500 and resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The silver contract 2510 is still expected to be strong, with support at 8400 - 8500 and resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report shows data on Shanghai silver and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price differences through charts [39][41][43]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The futures of rebar and iron ore have entered the red energy ladder or phase area, indicating a certain upward trend. Steel and iron ore spot enterprises are advised to consider multi - party hedging strategies [7][32]. 3. Summary by Catalog Rebar Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The main contract of rebar futures has entered the second week of the red energy ladder area. The weekly output of rebar is 2.21 million tons, the apparent consumption is 2.24 million tons, the inventory of major steel mills is 1.8 million tons, and the social inventory is 5.63 million tons. The daily - level price of rebar futures is in an upward channel. Steel spot enterprises can consider a 60% multi - party hedging plan [7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The main contract of rebar futures entered the first week of the red energy ladder area [10]. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The main contract of rebar futures is in the second week of the red energy ladder area in the mid - line trend. Steel spot enterprises can consider implementing a 60% multi - party hedging strategy step by step [11][12]. - **Related Data Situation** - The report mentions "Related data situation" multiple times but does not provide specific data content except for the data in the mid - line market analysis [13][16][18]. Iron Ore Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The main contract of iron ore futures has entered the first week of the mid - line red energy phase area. The global shipping volume of iron ore last week was 33.57 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major ports in China was 23.63 million tons, the inventory of steel enterprises was 89.18 million tons, and the inventory at major domestic ports was 138.78 million tons. Iron ore is running in the red phase area. Spot enterprises can consider implementing a multi - party hedging strategy step by step [32]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The daily - level of iron ore futures was in the sideways consolidation stage [35]. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: Spot enterprises can consider implementing a multi - party hedging strategy step by step [35]. - **Related Data Situation** - The report mentions "Related data situation" multiple times but does not provide specific data content except for the data in the mid - line market analysis [36][38][40].

2025.07.07-07.11 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 目录 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于横盘震荡整理的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏空。M2509或维 持宽幅震荡运行，预计运行区间：2880-3080。 n 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势横盘阶段,资金方面略微偏多。M2509或延续 震荡运行，预计运行区间：2880-3080。 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第26周油厂大豆实际压榨量248.78万吨，开机率69.93%； 大豆库存665.87万吨，较上周增加27.88万吨，增幅4.37%。豆粕库存 69.16万吨，较上周增加18.27万吨，增幅35.90%。国内大豆库存高企， 油厂维持高开机率压榨，推动豆粕供应持续增加。下游饲料企业需求继 续增长动力不足，豆粕延续累库。然而巴西大豆贴水价格坚挺形成成本 支撑，叠加中美贸易不确定性。综合来看，豆粕期货延续震荡运行。 2 建议观望。 3 中线策略建议 中线行情分析 品种诊断情况 ...

Overall Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil Futures [2] - Report Period: June 30 - July 4, 2025 [1] 1. Soybean Meal Futures 1.1 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 1.2 Core View - The soybean meal futures will continue to trade in a wide - range oscillation. The current supply is ample with high imports and high mill operation rates, but there are uncertainties from the strengthening Brazilian soybean premium and Sino - US trade relations. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. 1.3 Summary by Directory 1.3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. In the 25th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3842 million tons with an operation rate of 67.02%. Soybean inventory was 6.3799 million tons, up 383,900 tons (6.40%) from last week. Soybean meal inventory was 508,900 tons, up 98,900 tons (24.12%) from last week. With high imports and high operation rates, supply is abundant, but there are uncertainties from Brazilian premiums and Sino - US trade. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. 1.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean meal futures price was in a sideways trend overall, with bearish funds. The M2509 contract was expected to trade in the range of 2900 - 3120 in the short - term, and range trading was recommended [10]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The soybean meal futures price is in a sideways trend overall, with bearish funds. The M2509 contract may continue to trade in a wide - range oscillation, with an expected trading range of 2880 - 3080 [11]. 1.3.3 Related Data Situation - Data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [18][20][24] 2. Soybean Oil Futures 2.1 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2.2 Core View - The soybean oil futures price is in a high - level oscillation phase. High domestic soybean arrivals boost mill crushing, while weak summer consumption and falling crude oil prices due to the easing Middle - East situation suppress prices. However, there are uncertainties from US biodiesel policies and the key growth period of US soybeans. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. 2.3 Summary by Directory 2.3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract is in a high - level oscillation phase. In the 25th week, the actual output of 125 oil mills was 453,000 tons, up 23,800 tons from last week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 886,300 tons, up 39,300 tons from last week. High soybean arrivals, weak summer consumption, and falling crude oil prices suppress prices, but there are uncertainties from US policies and US soybean growth. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [31]. 2.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean oil futures price was in an upward channel overall, with bullish funds. Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the price was expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term, and it was recommended to wait and see [34]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The soybean oil futures price is in an upward channel overall, with slightly bullish funds. The Y2509 contract may maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, with an expected trading range of 7800 - 8100 [35]. 2.3.3 Related Data Situation - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrivals, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operation rate, and weekly port inventory. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [44][47][49]

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Gold, Silver Futures Variety Weekly Report [2] - Report period: June 30 - July 4, 2025 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, and it may be at the end of the trend [7] - Trend judgment logic: Last week, gold was affected by geopolitical conflicts, Fed policy divergence, tariff policy nodes, and weak economic data, showing a volatile downward trend. Future gold prices need to focus on the Fed's policy shift timing, the sustainability of global central bank gold purchases, and the inflation path. Geopolitical black - swan events are the biggest upside risk factor [7] - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: It was expected that the main gold contract 2508 would fluctuate at a high level in the short term. It was recommended to wait and see. The lower support was 766 - 775, and the upper pressure was 800 - 808 [11] - This week's strategy suggestion: The main gold contract 2510 is short - biased in the short term. The lower support is 754 - 760, and the upper pressure is 784 - 790 [12] 3. Relevant Data - The report provides data on Shanghai Gold futures and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a sideways movement, and it may be close to the end of the trend [33] - Trend judgment logic: Last week, silver showed a volatile trend affected by supply - demand fundamentals, Fed policy expectations, and geopolitical risks. Future positive factors for silver prices include strengthened Fed rate - cut expectations, global liquidity easing, and a weaker US dollar. The decline in the gold - silver ratio attracts capital inflows, and geopolitical risks increase hedging demand, with an annual supply gap of 3659 tons. Potential pressures are the high US Treasury yields increasing holding costs and weak manufacturing suppressing industrial demand [33] - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [34] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: It was expected that the silver contract 2510 would run strongly. The lower support interval was 8400 - 8500, and the upper pressure was 8900 - 9000 [36] - This week's strategy suggestion: It is expected that the silver contract 2508 will run strongly. The lower support interval is 8300 - 8500, and the upper pressure is 8900 - 9000 [36] 3. Relevant Data - The report provides data on Shanghai Silver futures and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [43][45][47]

2025.06.30-07.04 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析，螺纹钢期货主 力合约进入红色量能区域第一周。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量217万吨，表观消费量220万吨，主要钢厂库存185万 吨，社会库存560万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于横盘阶段。 2 钢材现货企业可考虑50%比例的多方保值策略。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 耐心观望等待调整阶段完成。 n 上周策略回顾 n 本周策略建议 螺纹钢期货主力合约中线趋势进入红色量能区域第一周。 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 n 现货企业套期保值建议 钢材现货企业可考虑50%比例的分步买入保值策略。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为 ...

2025.06.30-07.04 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于弱势震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周国内纯碱行业整体开工率维持高位，综合开工率为80%+，尽管 中盐昆山装置停车检修，杭州龙山降负运行，但行业整体供应并未 明显收缩。下游玻璃行业对纯碱的采购需求持续低迷，浮法玻璃与 光伏玻璃日熔量均出现下降，导致纯碱刚需支撑不足。企业普遍采 取逢低少量补库的策略，对高价货源接受度有限，市场成交以低价 刚需小单为主。除非出现实质性产能调整或需求端明显回暖，否则 承压运行趋势难改，预计纯碱期货价格仍将维持弱势震荡走势。 2 建议观望 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 相关数据情况 纯碱：开工率：中国（周） 纯碱：产量：中国（周） 上周纯碱期货市场震荡偏弱，价格波动小。供应端开工率仍 处高位，部分装置检修或减量。需求端下游采购意愿弱，多 低价刚需采购。因供需宽松、需求不振，预计纯碱期货价格 将延续弱势震荡。预期纯碱2509运行区间1150-1300，可 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market shows a large - range oscillation, with a bullish tendency in July. The mid - line trend is influenced by positive macro factors like the rising price of the US 10 - year Treasury bond and the easing of Sino - US trade confrontation [5][11]. - The future week's fluctuation range of the SHFE Aluminum 2508 contract is expected to be between 20300 - 20900 [8]. - Although the electrolytic aluminum inventory has accumulated, the short - term contract of SHFE Aluminum remains strong, and the overall price structure is bullish [30]. 3. Summary by Directory Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a large - range oscillation, with a bullish tendency in July. Macro factors are expected to push up aluminum prices in early July [5]. - **Trend Logic**: The rising price of the US 10 - year Treasury bond and the easing of Sino - US trade confrontation are positive for aluminum prices [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold low - position long orders in early July, and new orders are suitable for short - term trading in a high - level oscillation market [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The fluctuation range of the SHFE Aluminum 2508 contract was predicted to be between 20400 - 20900 [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The future week's fluctuation range of the SHFE Aluminum 2508 contract is expected to be between 20300 - 20900. Spot enterprises can consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventory at low prices [8]. Overall View - **Aluminum Ore Market**: The short - term shortage of domestic aluminum ore supply is difficult to ease, and the purchase price may be lowered. For imported ore, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea in July - August is expected to appear, but the price increase space is limited [9]. - **Alumina Market**: By June 26, the installed capacity of alumina in China was 112.8 million tons, with an operating capacity of 89.7 million tons and an operating rate of 79.52%. The supply and demand at home and abroad will be in surplus in the second half of the year, but the surplus degree is narrower than in Q1 [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is stable. The domestic production capacity is approaching the 45 - million - ton ceiling, and the production increase space is limited. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9% [9]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1200 yuan/ton. The impact of the easing of Sino - US trade confrontation on exports remains to be seen [9]. - **Demand**: The overall demand for aluminum products is weak in the off - season. The starting rates of various downstream industries such as aluminum profiles, aluminum sheets, aluminum foils, aluminum cables, and alloys have declined to varying degrees [10]. - **Inventory**: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 461,000 tons, up about 3% from last week and about 40% lower than the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 137,900 tons, up about 2% from last week and about 1% lower than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has slightly increased [10][16]. - **Profit**: The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2630 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 450 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17500 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3000 yuan/ton [11][18]. - **Market Expectation**: If the US dollar index or A - shares decline next week, the upward trend of aluminum prices will pause, and the market will enter a wide - range oscillation adjustment [11]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of some imported ores are expected to show a weakening oscillation trend. The price of thermal coal has rebounded, and the domestic alumina price has continued to decline [12]. - The price of aluminum products has changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [12]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of aluminum ore has rebounded, and the inventory of alumina has slightly increased. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum has accumulated, but the accumulation space is limited [14][16]. Supply and Demand Situation - The starting rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has decreased by 1 percentage point to 58.8% this week, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [24][25]. Futures - Spot Structure - Although the electrolytic aluminum inventory has accumulated, the short - term contract of SHFE Aluminum remains strong, and the overall price structure is bullish [30]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1220 yuan/ton this week, compared with - 1490 yuan/ton last week. The current spread may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [34][35]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position has continued to rise slightly in the past 7 weeks. The short side has reduced positions in the past month, and the long side has remained stable. The market is expected to show a bullish oscillation [36]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net short position has slightly shrunk this week. Both the long and short sides have significantly increased positions since the end of May, and the market divergence is increasing. The market is expected to remain bullish next week [39].