Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report suggests a trading strategy of shorting the 10 - year Treasury bond futures after a rebound. The bond market faces pressure but not severely. The market has fully priced in the pessimistic economic expectations, and although the economic data theoretically supports the bond market, the market focuses more on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and the expectation of fiscal increment implementation. It is expected that there will be no greater fiscal increment this year, but the launch of the "15th Five - Year Plan" boosts long - term confidence [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Treasury Bond Futures and Deliverable Bond Market - The prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures changed by - 0.043%, - 0.151%, - 0.231%, and - 0.605% respectively [5][6]. - The currently active contract is the 2512 contract. The CTD bonds, corresponding net basis, and IRR for each maturity are as follows: 2 - year (250012.IB, net basis 0.018, IRR 1.29%); 5 - year (250003.IB, net basis - 0.019, IRR 1.54%); 10 - year (250018.IB, net basis - 0.03, IRR 1.61%); 30 - year (210014.IB, net basis - 0.066, IRR 1.77%) [5][6]. - The IRR quantiles of CTD bonds for each maturity are 4.7%, 25%, 41.4%, and 66.1% respectively (statistical period: the past 252 trading days) [5]. - The yields of 1 - year, 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Treasury bonds changed by +2.8bps, - 0.2bps, +2.7bps, and +2.4bps respectively this week [5][6]. - The central bank made a net injection of 7.81 billion yuan in the open market this week [5][8]. 3.2. Treasury Bond Spot Data and Funding Rates - The report presents multiple charts related to Treasury bond spot data and funding rates, including the ChinaBond Treasury bond yield to maturity, the ChinaBond yield term structure, and open - market operations [35][38][39]. 3.3. Fundamental Situation - **Monthly Macro Data**: The predicted CPI for October is 0.0%, indicating no significant improvement in inflation expectations and not driving the bond market down. The manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, remaining below the boom - bust line for several months, suggesting weak economic recovery momentum. The social financing data as of the end of September is 30.06 trillion yuan. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee emphasized key areas, and the market interprets it as limited "incremental policy" expectations [5]. - **High - frequency Meso - level Data**: High - frequency data shows that the recent sectoral prosperity is similar to that of previous years. Based on the comparison of meso - level data with the same period in the past five years, a scoring system is used to measure the prosperity change, with positive scores indicating improvement, negative scores indicating deterioration, and zero scores indicating little change [56][58][59].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On October 24, the four major A-share stock indices rebounded across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.71% to close at 3,950.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.02% to close at 13,289.18 points, the ChiNext Index rose 3.57% to close at 3,171.57 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 4.35% to close at 1,462.22 points. Market turnover was 1,991.6 billion yuan, an increase of 330.9 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, communication (+4.73%), electronics (+4.72%), and national defense and military industry (+2.34%) led the gains, while petroleum and petrochemicals (-1.36%), coal (-1.29%), and food and beverages (-1.18%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IC > IM > IF > IH. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 3,025/138/2,273 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 18.6 billion yuan, - 3.8 billion yuan, - 10.9 billion yuan, and - 4 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +30.9 billion yuan, +9.8 billion yuan, - 11.8 billion yuan, and - 28.9 billion yuan respectively [2]. 2. Stock Index Futures - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 121.24, 98.73, 25.88, and - 2.78 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 9.96%, - 8.29%, - 3.39%, and 0.56% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 38%, 25%, 27%, and 52% respectively [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips. In the short term, there are signs of market cooling [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On October 24, the bond market had a slight correction. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.01%, TF fell 0.05%, T fell 0.06%, and TL fell 0.25% [3]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2512 contract. For the 2 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.02, and an IRR of 1.28%. For the 5 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250003.IB, with a yield change of +0.75 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.019, and an IRR of 1.54%. For the 10 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 220019.IB, with a yield change of +0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.02, and an IRR of 1.55%. For the 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +1 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.043, and an IRR of 1.65% [4]. - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 168 billion yuan and withdrew 164.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 3.2 billion yuan [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, be bullish. The implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 is cost - effective. In the medium - to - long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [4]. 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recently, the prosperity of social activities, real estate, and infrastructure is lower than in previous periods, while the manufacturing prosperity is good [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The gold market may experience significant short - term fluctuations, and it is recommended to take partial profits on gold long positions and reduce silver long positions [2]. - The aluminum price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, while the rebound space of alumina is limited [3]. - For zinc, it is advisable to sell short at high prices; for lead, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate between 8000 - 9000, and it is recommended to wait and see; lithium carbonate is expected to be in short supply in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the reduction of warehouse receipts [4]. - In the black industry, it is recommended to wait and see for most varieties and take profits on long positions in a timely manner [6]. - For soybeans, the short - term is strong, but it depends on trade negotiations; for corn, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly; for oils and fats, they are weak and differentiated; for sugar, it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options; for cotton, it is recommended to buy at low prices; for eggs and pigs, the futures prices are expected to oscillate [7][8]. - In the energy and chemical industry, different varieties have different trends. Some are expected to oscillate in the short - term and be in a loose supply - demand pattern in the long - term, and corresponding trading strategies such as shorting at high prices or waiting and seeing are recommended [10][11][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - Market performance: International gold priced in London gold rebounded on Thursday, rising above $4100 [2]. - Fundamentals: Sino - US economic and trade consultations will be held; the US established a critical minerals fund; there are various international political and economic events; domestic and international gold and silver inventories have different changes [2]. - Trading strategy: The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, but there are contradictions in the outlook. It is recommended to take partial profits on gold long positions and reduce silver long positions [2]. Basic Metals Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.57% compared with the previous trading day, and the LME price was $2845.5 per ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate is stable [3]. - Trading strategy: The macro - sentiment is positive, downstream demand is warming up, and aluminum ingots have been destocked for two consecutive weeks. The price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [3]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.32% compared with the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamentals: Some alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan carried out maintenance or production reduction, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading strategy: The short - covering of the main short positions caused a small rebound in the market, but the supply - demand surplus pattern of alumina remains unchanged. The rebound space is expected to be limited [3]. Zinc - Market performance: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc 2511 contract increased by 1.43% compared with the previous trading day [3][4]. - Fundamentals: The supply pressure persists, the domestic mine TC has decreased, but the smelting profit is still high. The consumption end has no outstanding performance, and the inventory situation is complex [4]. - Trading strategy: Sell short at high prices [4]. Lead - Market performance: The closing price of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract increased by 2.65% compared with the previous trading day [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply end has resumed production, but the consumption end is resilient. The low social inventory increases the risk of a short squeeze [4]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see [4]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The main 01 contract closed at 9060 yuan/ton, up 2.9% [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply end may reduce production in the southwest in late October. The demand end is supported by the high start - up rate of polysilicon [4]. - Trading strategy: The short - term trend is affected by other varieties and the photovoltaic industry chain, and it is expected to oscillate between 8000 - 9000. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: LC2601 closed at 79,940 yuan/ton, up 3.66% [4]. - Fundamentals: The price of lithium carbonate and related raw materials has changed. The supply has increased, and the demand has also increased. It is expected to be in a state of destocking [4]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to be in short supply in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the reduction of warehouse receipts [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The rebar main 2601 contract closed at 3058 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [5][6]. - Fundamentals: The apparent demand and output of rebar and hot - rolled coils have increased. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, but the structural differentiation is significant [6]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see mainly, and take profits on long positions in a timely manner. The reference range for RB01 is 3020 - 3090 [6]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The iron ore main 2601 contract closed at 777 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [6]. - Fundamentals: The molten iron output has decreased slightly, the inventory has increased, and the first round of coke price increase has been implemented [6]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see mainly. The reference range for I01 is 750 - 780 [6]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The coking coal main 2601 contract closed at 1251 yuan/ton, up 35.5 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [6]. - Fundamentals: The molten iron output has decreased slightly, the first round of price increase has been implemented, and the second round has some resistance. The inventory is at a low level, and the futures valuation is high [6]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see mainly, and take profits on long positions in a timely manner. The reference range for JM01 is 1230 - 1270 [6]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market performance: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose on the optimistic expectation of Sino - US trade [7]. - Fundamentals: The US soybeans have a slight reduction in production, and South America has an expected increase in production. The demand is differentiated [7]. - Trading strategy: The short - term of US soybeans is strong, but it depends on trade negotiations. The domestic situation is currently loose, but the medium - term is uncertain [7]. Corn - Market performance: The corn futures price oscillated narrowly, and the spot price fluctuated [7]. - Fundamentals: The corn quality in North China has been damaged by rain, and the new corn in the Northeast is about to be listed in large quantities. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the pressure of new crop listing [7]. Oils and Fats - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose [8]. - Fundamentals: The production in Malaysia is good, and the export has increased. The near - term inventory is accumulating, and the far - term will have seasonal production reduction [8]. - Trading strategy: Oils and fats are weak and differentiated. It is recommended to take a reverse spread for palm oil [8]. Sugar - Market performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5455 yuan/ton, up 0.48% [8]. - Fundamentals: The sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 25/26 season has exceeded that of the previous year. The domestic new - season production is expected to increase, and the futures - spot basis will converge through the decline of the spot price [8]. - Trading strategy: Short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. Cotton - Market performance: The overnight US cotton futures price stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - Fundamentals: The cotton import in India has increased, and the domestic cotton situation has also changed. The acquisition price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang has risen [8]. - Trading strategy: Buy at low prices, with a strategy in the range of 13400 - 13800 yuan/ton [8]. Eggs - Market performance: The egg futures price rose, and the spot price partially increased [8]. - Fundamentals: The egg price is at a low level, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, but the supply is sufficient, and the egg price is expected to be at a low level [8]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate [8]. Pigs - Market performance: The pig futures price oscillated narrowly, and the spot price showed a north - south difference [8]. - Fundamentals: The pig slaughter volume will continue to increase, the slaughter profit has emerged, and the pig price is expected to bottom out weakly [8]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate [8]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - Market performance: The LLDPE main contract rose slightly, the basis weakened, and the overseas price was stable with a slight decline [10]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply pressure has increased but at a slower pace, and the demand in the downstream agricultural film season has improved [10]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, it will oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short at high prices or take a reverse spread [10]. PVC - Market performance: V01 closed at 4711, down 0.3% [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply has increased, the demand is weak, the social inventory is at a high level, and the export has variables [10]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to short [10]. PTA - Market performance: The PX CFR China price is $713/ton, and the PTA East China spot price is 4430 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The PX supply is high, the PTA short - term production is affected by maintenance, and the polyester demand has improved [10]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to go long on PX and short the processing fee of PTA at high prices [10]. Rubber - Market performance: RU2601 closed at 15245 yuan/ton, up 0.86% [10]. - Fundamentals: The raw material price has strong support, the inventory is decreasing, and the tire production capacity utilization rate has increased [10]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to oscillate with strong support at the bottom [10]. Glass - Market performance: FG01 closed at 1092, down 0.6% [10]. - Fundamentals: The glass price has fallen, the inventory has accumulated, the supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak [10][11]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [11]. PP - Market performance: The PP main contract rebounded slightly, the basis weakened, the overseas price was stable with a slight decline, and the export window opened [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season but has been over - consumed [11]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, it will oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short at high prices or take a reverse spread [11]. MEG - Market performance: The MEG East China spot price is 4177 yuan/ton, and the basis is 88 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply has decreased, the inventory is at a low level, and the polyester demand has improved [11]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the long - term [11]. Crude Oil - Market performance: Oil prices rebounded sharply for two consecutive days due to geopolitical factors [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand in Q4 may be weaker than the season [11]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the reduction of Russian oil exports [11]. Styrene - Market performance: The EB main contract rebounded slightly, the overseas price was stable with a slight decline, and the import window was closed [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply and demand contradictions of pure benzene and styrene are still large, and the demand has been over - consumed [11]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, it will oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short at high prices or take a reverse spread [11][12]. Soda Ash - Market performance: SA01 closed at 1228, unchanged [12]. - Fundamentals: The supply and demand of soda ash are balanced, the inventory has a small accumulation, and the downstream demand has some changes [12]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see [12].

Report Information - Report Date: October 24, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Financial Research - Financial Futures Morning Report - Report Company: China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report Core Views - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term view of going long on the economy, recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips, and note that the short - term market shows signs of cooling [3] - For bond futures, be bullish in the short - term as the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds is cost - effective; for the medium - to long - term, with rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, suggest hedging T and TL contracts on rallies [4] Summary by Directory (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 23, most of the four major A - share stock indexes rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22% to 3922.41 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.22% to 13025.45 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.09% to 3062.16 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 0.3% to 1401.26 points. Market turnover was 1660.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.5 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, coal (+1.75%), petroleum and petrochemicals (+1.52%), and social services (+1.07%) led the gains; communication (-1.51%), real estate (-0.99%), and building materials (-0.91%) led the losses [2] - In terms of market strength, IH>IF>IC>IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2991/143/2301 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net inflows in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 12.3 billion, - 13.5 billion, 0.9 billion, and 24.9 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +1.9 billion, +3.8 billion, - 8.1 billion, and +2.4 billion yuan respectively [2] - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 129.1, 102.95, 25.54, and 3.1 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 10.52%, - 8.58%, - 3.3%, and - 0.61% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 36%, 23%, 27%, and 38% respectively [3] (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 23, the bond market pulled back. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.02%, TF fell 0.07%, T fell 0.12%, and TL fell 0.34% [3] - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.002, and an IRR of 1.41%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year Treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of +1 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.015, and an IRR of 1.52%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures was 250018.IB, with a yield change of +1.1 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.024, and an IRR of 1.26%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures was 210014.IB, with a yield change of +1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.038, and an IRR of 1.63% [4] - In terms of the money market, the central bank's currency injection was 212.5 billion yuan, currency withdrawal was 236 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal was 23.5 billion yuan [4] (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent prosperity of social activities, real estate, and infrastructure is lower than in previous periods [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides market analyses and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It considers factors such as market performance, fundamentals (supply and demand), and geopolitical events to make trading suggestions [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Gold - Market performance: International gold priced in London continued its weak oscillation on Tuesday, with strong support at $4000/ounce [2]. - Fundamentals: The US government shutdown, energy policies, geopolitical tensions, and changes in gold and silver inventories and ETF holdings were noted [2]. - Trading strategy: The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged. Due to short - term profit - taking by funds, gold and silver prices may fluctuate significantly in the short term. It is recommended to take partial profits on gold long positions and reduce silver long positions [2]. Silver - Market performance: Not separately elaborated, but mentioned in the context of gold market analysis [2]. - Fundamentals: Similar to gold, with changes in inventories and ETF holdings [2]. - Trading strategy: Reduce long positions as mentioned in the gold section [2]. Base Metals Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.38% to CNY 21,045/ton, and the LME price was $2816/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate was stable [3]. - Trading strategy: With positive macro sentiment, improved downstream demand, and aluminum ingot de - stocking, prices are expected to oscillate slightly upwards [3]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.68% to CNY 2829/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Some alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan carried out maintenance or production cuts due to ore supply limitations or production plan adjustments, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading strategy: The short - covering of main shorts led to a small rebound, but the oversupply situation remains. The rebound space is expected to be limited [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The main 11 - contract closed at CNY 8485/ton, down CNY 20 from the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces increased this week, and social inventory accumulation accelerated. The demand for polysilicon supported the market, while organic silicon production decreased slightly, and the aluminum alloy start - up rate was stable [3][4]. - Trading strategy: The short - term trend is affected by the photovoltaic industry chain's start - up rate. The price is expected to oscillate between CNY 8000 and CNY 9000, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: LC2601 closed at CNY 77,120/ton, up 1.5% [4]. - Fundamentals: The production of lithium carbonate reached a new high, imports decreased, and the demand for cathode materials increased. It is expected to maintain a tight balance in October [4]. - Trading strategy: The current high - demand for spot goods is expected to keep the market in short supply. The price is expected to oscillate slightly upwards in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor the de - stocking of warehouse receipts and be cautious about chasing up [4]. Polysilicon - Market performance: The main 11 - contract closed at CNY 50,310/ton, down CNY 405 from the previous trading day [4]. - Fundamentals: The weekly production decreased slightly, inventory accumulated, and the downstream product prices were stable. The photovoltaic installation in the fourth quarter is expected to face pressure [4]. - Trading strategy: The market is expected to complete the main - contract switch this week. For the 11 - contract, the downstream can accept the price at CNY 48,000, which forms a support. The 12 - contract and later contracts can be considered for light - position long positions if there is a discount to the spot price [4]. Agricultural Products Corn - Market performance: Corn futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices showed mixed trends [5]. - Fundamentals: Bad weather in North China affected corn quality, and the approaching harvest in the Northeast and expected increase in production and cost reduction pressured prices [5]. - Trading strategy: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the pressure of new crop listings [5]. Sugar - Market performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at CNY 5408/ton, down 0.15% [5]. - Fundamentals: Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season exceeded the previous year, and the high sugar - to - ethanol ratio will maintain high production. The supply is expected to increase, and the international sugar price is under pressure [6]. - Trading strategy: Go short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - Market performance: Overnight US cotton futures prices fell, while Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rebounded [6]. - Fundamentals: Indian cotton imports increased, and the sowing progress in Brazil was slightly lower. In China, cotton commercial inventory increased, and the acquisition price in Xinjiang rose [6]. - Trading strategy: Buy on dips, with a strategy focused on the range of CNY 13,400 - 13,800/ton [6]. Eggs - Market performance: Egg futures prices were weak, while spot prices rose [6]. - Fundamentals: Low egg prices increased downstream buying, but sufficient supply and low vegetable prices dragged down egg prices [6]. - Trading strategy: Futures prices are expected to be weak due to sufficient supply [6]. Pigs - Market performance: Pig futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices continued to rise [6]. - Fundamentals: Pig slaughter increased, and the secondary fattening entered the market. The decline space of pig prices is limited, and it is expected to bottom out weakly [6]. - Trading strategy: Futures prices are expected to oscillate in the short term due to secondary fattening [6]. Energy Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: The LLDPE main contract oscillated slightly. The basis was stable, and market transactions were average [7]. - Fundamentals: New device production and some domestic device load - reduction slowed the increase in supply. The downstream was in the peak season, and demand improved [7]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, the market will oscillate, and the upside is limited by the import window. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern will be loose in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to short on rallies or conduct calendar - spread arbitrage [7][8]. PVC - Market performance: The V01 contract closed at 4720, up 0.4% [8]. - Fundamentals: PVC prices were stable, exports increased, supply increased, and inventory was at a high level [8]. - Trading strategy: The supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to short [8]. PTA - Market performance: PX CFR China price was $798/ton, and PTA East China spot price was CNY 4370/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: PX supply was high, and PTA production was affected by short - term maintenance. Polyester factory load increased, and inventory was at a medium - high level [8]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA's processing margin [8]. Rubber - Market performance: The RU2601 contract oscillated narrowly and closed at CNY 15,150/ton, up 1% [8]. - Fundamentals: Thai raw material prices rose, and Qingdao's rubber inventory decreased [8]. - Trading strategy: The market will oscillate due to raw material support and inventory reduction [8]. Glass - Market performance: The fg01 contract closed at 1092, up 0.2% [8]. - Fundamentals: Glass prices fell, production and sales were average, supply was high, and inventory accumulated [8]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see due to the negative feedback in the short term [8]. PP - Market performance: The PP main contract oscillated slightly. The basis was stable, and market transactions were average [9]. - Fundamentals: New device production and some device load - reduction increased supply. The downstream was in the peak season, but previous subsidies overdrew some demand [9]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, the market will oscillate, and the upside is limited by the import window. In the long term, short on rallies or conduct calendar - spread arbitrage as the supply - demand pattern loosens [9]. MEG - Market performance: The East China spot price of MEG was CNY 4107/ton, and the basis was 81 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply decreased due to maintenance and delayed shipments. Polyester factory load increased, and inventory was at a medium - high level [9]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see in the short term due to market oscillation and low inventory. Short on rallies in the long term due to inventory accumulation pressure [9]. Crude Oil - Market performance: Oil prices rebounded sharply due to geopolitical rumors and positive EIA reports [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure increased with production increases from multiple countries, and demand may weaken seasonally in Q4 [9]. - Trading strategy: Close previous short positions and short on rallies after the rebound [9]. Styrene - Market performance: The EB main contract oscillated slightly. The basis was weak, and market transactions were average [9]. - Fundamentals: Pure benzene and styrene inventories were at normal or above - normal levels, and downstream demand was affected by previous subsidies [9]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, the market will oscillate weakly, and the upside is limited by the import window. In the long term, short on rallies or conduct calendar - spread arbitrage as the supply - demand pattern loosens [9]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The sa01 contract closed at 1225, up 0.4% [9][10]. - Fundamentals: Soda ash prices oscillated at the bottom, supply was high in the fourth quarter, and inventory increased slightly [9][10]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see due to balanced supply - demand and upstream losses [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the medium to long - term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. In the short - term, the market shows signs of cooling [2]. - For the bond market, it is short - term bullish, and the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 is cost - effective; in the medium to long - term, due to the rising risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 22, the four major A - share stock indexes adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to 3913.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.62% to 12996.61 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.79% to 3059.32 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 0.06% to 1405.41 points. Market trading volume was 1690.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 202.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - In terms of industry sectors, petroleum and petrochemicals (+1.58%), banks (+0.97%), and household appliances (+0.82%) led the gains; non - ferrous metals (-1.36%), power equipment (-1.29%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-1.19%) led the losses [1]. - From the perspective of market strength, IH > IF > IM > IC, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2278/194/2963 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net capital inflows in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 14.2 billion, - 17.3 billion, 8.9 billion, and 22.6 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 30 billion, - 11.3 billion, +24.9 billion, and +16.4 billion yuan respectively [1]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 149.01, 116.88, 29.17, and 4.5 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 11.85%, - 9.53%, - 3.69%, and - 0.87% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 29%, 20%, 25%, and 37% respectively [2]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 22, the bond market was relatively strong. Among the active contracts, TS remained flat, TF rose 0.04%, T rose 0.02%, and TL rose 0.1% [2]. - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of +0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.027, and an IRR of 1.61%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a flat yield, a corresponding net basis of - 0.058, and an IRR of 1.82%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year treasury bond futures was 250018.IB, with a yield change of +0.4bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.045, and an IRR of 1.73%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 0.75bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.029, and an IRR of 1.29% [2]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank's currency injection was 138.2 billion yuan, currency withdrawal was 43.5 billion yuan, and the net injection was 94.7 billion yuan [3]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent prosperity of social activities, real estate, and infrastructure is lower than in previous periods [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the stock index futures market, the report maintains a long - term bullish view on the economy. It suggests that using stock index futures as a long - position substitute can achieve certain excess returns, and recommends buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. However, the short - term market shows signs of cooling [2]. - For the bond market, in the short term, it is recommended to be bullish, as the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds is attractive. In the medium - to - long term, with the upward trend of risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is advisable to hedge at high prices for T and TL contracts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 21, the four major A - share stock indexes rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.06%, the ChiNext Index rose 3.02%, and the STAR 50 Index rose 2.81%. The market turnover was 189.27 billion yuan, an increase of 14.14 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, communication (+4.9%), electronics (+3.5%), and building decoration (+2.36%) led the gains, while coal (-1.02%), food and beverage (+0.23%), and transportation (+0.29%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IC > IF > IM > IH. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 4,624, 82, and 729 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 15.8 billion, - 6 billion, - 15.9 billion, and 6.2 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +12.7 billion, +5.6 billion, - 5.8 billion, and - 12.4 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 161.25, 132.82, 30.27, and 2.46 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 12.48%, - 10.5%, - 3.73%, and - 0.47% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 25%, 17%, 25%, and 39% respectively [2]. - The table shows the performance of various stock index futures contracts, including price, trading volume, open interest, basis, and annualized basis yield [5]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 21, the bond market rose. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.05%, TF rose 0.05%, T rose 0.04%, and TL rose 0.16% [2]. - The current active contracts are 2512 contracts. The CTD bonds, yield changes, net basis, and IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided [2][3]. - The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 6.85 billion yuan, with a currency injection of 15.95 billion yuan and a currency withdrawal of 9.1 billion yuan [3]. - The table shows the performance of various treasury bond futures contracts and spot bonds, including price, trading volume, open interest, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rate [6]. (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activities, real estate, and infrastructure sectors are less prosperous than in previous periods [9]. - The chart of domestic mid - level data tracking shows the comparison of the prosperity of manufacturing, real estate, social activities, infrastructure, and imports and exports based on the changes compared with the same period in the past five years [10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged. The Fed has cut interest rates as expected, but there are contradictions in the outlook. The price decline of precious metals is mainly due to the short - term profit - taking of funds after a rapid rise, and the impact of the expected easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is limited. For gold, it is recommended to take partial profits on long positions and wait for support below; for silver, reduce long positions [2]. - For basic metals, the short - term view on copper is to treat it with a volatile mindset; electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, and it is recommended to wait and see; alumina is expected to be volatile and weak; industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the 8000 - 9000 range, and it is recommended to wait and see; for polysilicon, the 11 - contract has a price bottom support at 48,000, and for the 12 - contract and later, consider lightly testing long positions if there is a discount to the spot price [3][4]. - For the black industry, for both steel and iron ore, it is recommended to wait and see; for coking coal, due to high - valued futures and expected production contraction, it is also recommended to wait and see [5][6]. - In the agricultural products market, corn futures are expected to be volatile and weak; cotton is recommended to buy on dips in the 13400 - 13800 yuan/ton range; eggs and live pigs are expected to have a weak trend and short - term volatile consolidation respectively [7][8]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE and PP are expected to be volatile in the short - term and supply will be more abundant in the long - term, so it is recommended to short at high prices; PVC is recommended to be short - allocated; PTA is recommended to be long - allocated for PX and short - sell processing fees for PTA; rubber is expected to be in an oscillatory arrangement, and it is recommended to wait and see; glass and soda ash are recommended to wait and see; MEG is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the long - term; for crude oil, it is recommended to hold short positions in SC [9][10][11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold priced in London gold tumbled on Tuesday, with the price once falling below $4100 [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The US Congress failed to pass the temporary spending bill, and the government is expected to remain shut down until next Monday. European leaders signed a joint statement supporting an immediate cease - fire and peace talks. Takako Koshikawa was elected as Japan's new prime minister. Domestic gold ETFs continued to flow in. There were changes in gold and silver inventories in various places, and the holdings of major ETFs also changed [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to take partial profits on gold long positions and reduce silver long positions [2]. 3.2 Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: The copper price fluctuated weakly yesterday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The market expected the easing of Sino - US relations and the end of the Russia - Ukraine war, and the US dollar index strengthened, putting pressure on metals. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and the demand was divided between traditional and AI - related industries [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Treat it with a volatile mindset in the short - term [3]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.26% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 20,965 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate remained stable [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see as the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [3]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.14% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2810 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Some alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan carried out maintenance or production cuts, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile and weak, and pay attention to the subsequent production cuts of alumina plants [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 11 - contract opened lower on Tuesday and oscillated narrowly throughout the day, closing at 8505 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of furnaces opened this week increased, and it is expected that production will be reduced in the southwest region at the end of October. Social inventories increased in accumulation speed, and the demand was supported by the high start - up rate of polysilicon [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see as it is expected to oscillate in the 8000 - 9000 range [4]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 11 - contract opened lower on Tuesday, then rose and oscillated narrowly throughout the day, closing at 50,715 yuan/ton, up 375 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly output decreased slightly, and the industry and warehouse - receipt inventories increased this week. The downstream product prices fluctuated little, and the photovoltaic installation growth in the fourth quarter is under pressure [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the 11 - contract, there is a price bottom support at 48,000. For the 12 - contract and later, consider lightly testing long positions if there is a discount to the spot price [4]. 3.3 Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 - contract of rebar closed at 3051 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The building material inventory decreased by 1.4% to 5.03 million tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.7% to 2.56 million tons. The steel supply - demand contradiction is limited, but there is significant structural differentiation [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with the RB01 reference range of 3010 - 3080 [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 - contract of iron ore closed at 772.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased by 940,000 tons to 28.25 million tons. The port inventory increased by 1.03 million tons. The iron - water output decreased slightly, and the first round of coke price increase was implemented [5][6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with the I01 reference range of 750 - 780 [6]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 - contract of coking coal closed at 1189.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - water output decreased, the steel mill profit stabilized marginally, and the overall inventory level decreased significantly. The futures are at a premium, and there is an expectation of production contraction [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with the JM01 reference range of 1155 - 1215 [6]. 3.4 Agricultural Products Market Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices rose [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Rainy weather in North China affected corn quality, but the selling pressure has eased. The new crop is expected to increase in production, and the cost has decreased, suppressing the long - term price [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to be volatile and weak [7]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Overnight US cotton futures prices rebounded, and international crude oil prices also rebounded. Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to rebound [7]. - **Fundamentals**: There were changes in cotton imports in South Korea and Indonesia. The Xinjiang machine - picked cotton purchase index increased. There were changes in China's cotton cloth imports [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips in the 13400 - 13800 yuan/ton range [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices were stable [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Egg prices fell to a low level, increasing downstream purchasing enthusiasm, but the supply was sufficient, and low vegetable prices dragged down egg prices [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to be weak [7]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: Live pig futures and spot prices continued to rise [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of live pigs will continue to increase from October to November. The slaughter volume has rebounded, and the price is expected to bottom out weakly [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to consolidate in the short - term [8]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The basis was stable, and the market trading was average. The overseas price was slightly lower, and the import window was closed [9]. - **Fundamentals**: New devices were put into operation, and some domestic devices reduced production. The import volume is expected to decrease slightly. The demand in the agricultural film season improved [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile in the short - term, and short at high prices in the long - term [9]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 contract closed at 4699, down 0.4% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The PVC price decreased by about 20, and the trading was average. Supply increased, and exports increased significantly, but India may impose anti - dumping duties in November. The social inventory was at a high level [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - allocate [9]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The CFR China price of PX was $784/ton, and the PTA spot price in East China was 4320 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 88 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX and PTA increased. The polyester factory load increased slightly, and the inventory was at a medium - high level. PX was in a balanced and slightly loose supply - demand situation, and PTA had a slight inventory reduction [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - allocate PX and short - sell PTA processing fees [9]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: Due to the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, the RU2601 contract rose rapidly during the session, closing at 15,150 yuan/ton, up 1.92% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The raw material prices in Thailand were stable with a slight increase. The inventory in Qingdao decreased [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see as it is expected to be in an oscillatory arrangement [9]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG01 contract closed at 1086, down 1.8% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The glass price continued to decline. The supply was at a high level, and the inventory increased. The downstream demand was weak [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [10]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract oscillated slightly. The basis was stable, and the market trading was average. The overseas price was slightly lower, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [10]. - **Fundamentals**: New devices were put into operation, and some domestic devices reduced production. The demand in the peak season improved, but part of the Q4 demand was overdrawn [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile in the short - term, and short at high prices in the long - term [10]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The spot price of MEG in East China was 4075 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of 74 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of MEG increased, and the inventory in East China ports was at a low level. The polyester factory load increased slightly, and the inventory was at a medium - high level. MEG had inventory accumulation [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the long - term [10]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices were weak due to multiple negative factors, but the decline narrowed as WTI fell below the high - cost line of shale oil [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased, and the demand decreased seasonally. There were uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in SC [10]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract rebounded slightly. The spot price in East China was 6500 yuan/ton, and the trading was average. The overseas price was slightly lower, and the import window was closed [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene was at a normal or normal - high level. The downstream demand improved in the peak season but was overdrawn [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile and weak in the short - term, and short at high prices in the long - term [11]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA01 contract closed at 1210, down 1.4% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of soda ash decreased, and the inventory increased slightly. The downstream demand was weak [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged in the gold market, but there are contradictions in the Fed's outlook. The short - term price is at a historical high, and there may be significant high - level fluctuations. In the basic metals market, most metals are expected to show a certain degree of volatility. In the black industry, the supply - demand contradictions of steel products are limited but with obvious structural differentiation. In the agricultural products market, the supply - demand situations of different products vary, and the market trends are affected by multiple factors such as production, policies, and seasons. In the energy and chemical industry, the supply - demand patterns of different products are different, and the market trends are also complex, with some products expected to be in a state of supply - demand balance or imbalance [1][2][5]. 3. Summaries by Categories Gold Market - Market performance: International gold priced in London rebounded and then plunged on Monday, with the price returning to $4300 [1]. - Fundamentals: The US listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues in China - US economic and trade consultations. The US government shutdown may end this week. China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and 5.2% in the first three quarters. Domestic gold ETFs continued to flow in, and the inventories of gold and silver in different regions changed. The holdings of major gold and silver ETFs increased [1]. - Trading strategy: Hold long gold positions, and hold long silver positions cautiously [1]. Basic Metals Copper - Market performance: The copper price fluctuated strongly yesterday [2]. - Fundamentals: The market is concerned about the Fed's rate cut at the end of the month, and the dollar index fluctuates weakly. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the domestic refined copper production change is small. The demand side shows a certain premium in spot trading, and the domestic inventory increases [2]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a short - term view of fluctuating strongly [2]. Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract had no obvious change, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 10 yuan/ton, with the LME price at $2774.5/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: The electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the operating capacity increases slightly. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate remains stable [2]. - Trading strategy: It is expected that the price will maintain a fluctuating and strongly - running state, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.21% compared with the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 73 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Some alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan implemented maintenance or production reduction due to ore supply limitations or production plan adjustments, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2][3]. - Trading strategy: The supply - demand surplus pattern of alumina remains unchanged, and it is recommended to sell short at high prices [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The main contract opened higher on Monday, then fluctuated, with the closing price up 1.60% and the position decreasing [3]. - Fundamentals: The number of furnaces in operation increased this week, and it is expected that the southwest region will start to reduce production in late October. The social inventory accumulates, and the demand is supported by the high start - up rate of polysilicon [3]. - Trading strategy: The short - term price is expected to fluctuate between 8000 - 9000, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The LC2601 contract closed at $75,940/ton, up 0.21% [3]. - Fundamentals: The production and import of lithium carbonate change, and the demand for downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increases. It is expected to maintain a tight balance in October, and the inventory decreases [3]. - Trading strategy: The current spot demand is high and is expected to remain in short supply. Pay attention to the inventory reduction of warehouse receipts, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Polysilicon - Market performance: The main contract opened higher on Monday, then fell and fluctuated, with the closing price down 3.82% and the position decreasing [3]. - Fundamentals: The weekly production decreased slightly, and it is expected that the production in October will increase by 6%. The industry inventory accumulates. The installation of domestic photovoltaic power generation in the fourth quarter is expected to face pressure [3]. - Trading strategy: For the November contract, there is a price bottom support at 48,000. For the December and later contracts, if there is a discount to the spot price, consider a small - position long - position trial [3]. Tin - Market performance: The tin price fluctuated strongly yesterday [4]. - Fundamentals: The market is concerned about the Fed's rate cut at the end of the month, and the dollar index fluctuates weakly. The supply of tin ore has been slightly alleviated, and the global visible inventory continues to decline [4]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a view of fluctuating strongly [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The rebar main contract 2601 closed at 3044 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: The building material inventory decreased by 1.4%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.7%. The supply - demand contradiction of steel products is limited, but the structural differentiation is significant [5]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range of RB01 being 3010 - 3080 [5]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The iron ore main contract 2601 closed at 767.5 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and the port inventory increased. The supply - demand of iron ore is moderately strong, and the subsequent inventory accumulation may be slower than the historical average [5]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range of I01 being 750 - 780 [5]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The coking coal main contract 2601 closed at 1188 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: The molten iron production decreased, and the first round of price increase has been implemented, with the second round facing resistance. The overall inventory level has decreased significantly, and the futures valuation is high [5]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range of JM01 being 1155 - 1215 [5]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market performance: The CBOT soybeans rose overnight [6]. - Fundamentals: The US soybeans have a slight reduction in production, and South America has an expected increase in production. The demand is differentiated, and the global high - inventory expectation remains unchanged [6][7]. - Trading strategy: US soybeans are in a range - bound state. The domestic market is currently loose, and the one - sided trend is weak, but the medium - term uncertainty is large [7]. Corn - Market performance: Corn futures prices continued to rebound, and spot prices fluctuated [7]. - Fundamentals: Bad weather in North China affects corn harvesting, and the new - crop corn is expected to increase in production. The cost has decreased significantly, and the spot price is expected to be weak [7]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the pressure of new - crop listing [7]. Oils and Fats - Market performance: The Malaysian market was closed yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: The production in Malaysia is in a seasonal decline, and the export is expected to increase. The near - term inventory accumulates, and the far - term production is expected to decline seasonally [7]. - Trading strategy: The one - sided trading of oils and fats is more difficult, and the P structure is suitable for reverse arbitrage [7]. White Sugar - Market performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5443 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [7]. - Fundamentals: The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season has exceeded the previous year. The high sugar - making ratio throughout the season is a fact, and the international sugar price is under pressure [7]. - Trading strategy: Short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. Cotton - Market performance: The US cotton futures price rose and then fell overnight, and the domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to rebound [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand balance sheet of Indian cotton in the 24/25 year was released, and the domestic cotton purchase price increased [7]. - Trading strategy: Buy on dips, with the strategy range of 13400 - 13800 yuan/ton [7]. Eggs - Market performance: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices fell [7]. - Fundamentals: The egg price has fallen to a low level, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, but the supply is sufficient, and the egg price is expected to be weak [7]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to be weak due to sufficient supply [7]. Pigs - Market performance: Pig futures prices rebounded, and spot prices continued to rise [8]. - Fundamentals: The pig slaughter volume will continue to increase from October to November. The slaughter profit has recovered, and the pig price is expected to be in a weak bottom - grinding state [8]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate at a low level due to sufficient supply [8]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - Market performance: The LLDPE main contract continued to decline slightly yesterday, with the basis stable and the market trading average [9]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply pressure increases but at a slower pace, and the demand in the agricultural film season has improved [9]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, it will fluctuate. In the long term, as new devices are put into operation, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. It is recommended to short at high prices or conduct reverse arbitrage on the spread [9]. PVC - Market performance: The V01 contract closed at 4700, down 0.1% [9]. - Fundamentals: The PVC price continues to fall, the export has increased significantly, the supply has increased, and the social inventory is at a high level [9]. - Trading strategy: The supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is recommended to short [9]. PTA - Market performance: The PX CFR China price is $783/ton, and the PTA East China spot price is 4325 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply of PX and PTA is expected to be loose, and the PTA inventory decreases slightly [9]. - Trading strategy: The PX price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to short the processing fee of PTA's far - month contracts at high prices [9]. Rubber - Market performance: The RU2601 contract closed at 14810 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [9]. - Fundamentals: The raw material price in Thailand is stable with a slight increase, the inventory in Qingdao has decreased significantly, and the cost support still exists [9][10]. - Trading strategy: The short - term may maintain a weak - fluctuating pattern. It is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions and not to short further. Pay attention to the support at 14600 yuan/ton [10]. Glass - Market performance: The FG01 contract closed at 1090, down 2.4% [10]. - Fundamentals: The glass price has fallen, the supply is at a high level, the inventory has accumulated, and the demand has not recovered seasonally [10]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see due to the poor demand improvement [10]. PP - Market performance: The PP main contract continued to decline slightly yesterday, with the basis stable and the market trading average [10]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply increases, the export window is open, and the downstream is in the peak season, but part of the fourth - quarter demand has been overdrawn [10]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, it will fluctuate. In the long term, as new devices are put into operation, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. It is recommended to short at high prices or conduct reverse arbitrage on the spread [10]. MEG - Market performance: The MEG East China spot price is 4076 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 74 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply of MEG increases, and the inventory accumulates [10]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, wait and see due to the macro - situation and low inventory. In the long term, short at high prices due to the large inventory - accumulation pressure [10]. Crude Oil - Market performance: The oil price has been weak recently due to multiple negative factors, but the decline has narrowed [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is seasonally weak, and there are uncertainties in the global economic and oil - product demand prospects [10][11]. - Trading strategy: Hold short positions in SC [11]. Styrene - Market performance: The EB main contract declined slightly yesterday, with the market trading average [11]. - Fundamentals: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene are at normal or relatively high levels, the downstream enterprises are in losses, and part of the fourth - quarter demand has been overdrawn [11]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, it will fluctuate weakly. In the long term, as the supply increases, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. It is recommended to short at high prices or conduct reverse arbitrage on the spread [11]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The SA01 contract closed at 1218, unchanged [11]. - Fundamentals: The soda ash price is at the bottom and fluctuating, the inventory is in balance, and the supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter [11]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see due to the weak supply - demand balance and low price [11]. Caustic Soda - Market performance: The SH01 contract closed at 2380, down 0.8% [11]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of caustic soda has stopped falling, the futures price has continued to fall, the inventory has accumulated, and the non - aluminum demand has not recovered as expected [11]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see due to the unexpected decline in the downstream delivery price [11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. The short - term market shows signs of cooling [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term bullish, the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 is cost - effective. For the medium and long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Stock Index Spot and Futures Market Performance - **Market Performance on October 20**: The four major A - share stock indexes showed a callback, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.63% to 3863.89 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.98% to 12813.21 points, the ChiNext Index rising 1.98% to 2993.45 points, and the STAR 50 Index rising 0.35% to 1367.9 points. Market turnover was 17,513 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,031 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, communication (+3.21%), coal (+3.04%), and power equipment (+1.53%) led the gains, while non - ferrous metals (-1.34%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-0.88%), and beauty care (-0.38%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IC>IM>IF>IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4,064/121/1,248 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 32, - 116, - 101, and 186 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +497, +217, - 274, and - 440 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Basis and Basis Annualized Yield**: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was 179.98, 160.44, 31.42, and 4.46 points respectively, and the basis annualized yields were - 13.81%, - 12.61%, - 3.85%, and - 0.83% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 20%, 11%, 24%, and 37% respectively [2]. (2) Treasury Bond Spot and Futures Market Performance - **Market Performance on October 20**: The bond market adjusted. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.04%, TF fell 0.11%, T fell 0.14%, and TL fell 0.37% [3]. - **Cash Bonds**: For the currently active 2512 contracts, the CTD bonds and their corresponding data are as follows: for the 2 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250012.IB, with a yield change of +1.5bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.003, and an IRR of 1.45%; for the 5 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250003.IB, with a yield change of +2bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.02, and an IRR of 1.56%; for the 10 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 220017.IB, with a yield change of +3.25bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.047, and an IRR of 1.73%; for the 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 220024.IB, with a yield change of +1.88bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.085, and an IRR of 1.03% [3]. - **Funding Situation**: The central bank injected 189 billion yuan and withdrew 253.8 billion yuan in open - market operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 64.8 billion yuan [3]. (3) Economic Data High - frequency data shows that the recent prosperity of social activities, real estate, and infrastructure is lower than in previous periods [10].