1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes various commodity futures including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, providing market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each category [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Category Base Metals - **Copper**: Market traded Fed rate - cut expectation decline and Sino - US leaders' meeting利好落地. Supply may ease slightly, demand has spot discounts. Short - term dollar strength suppresses price, but upward trend remains. Suggest buying on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: Price rose 0.26% on Friday. Supply has increased production capacity, demand's weekly开工率 decreased. Macro environment is warm, but in traditional off - season and high price limits downstream acceptance. Expected to be oscillatingly strong, focus on de - stocking [1]. - **Alumina**: Price fell 0.82% on Friday. Supply decreased due to pollution control, demand has high - load production. Market is in surplus, price may be oscillatingly weak, watch environmental restrictions [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Price of LC2601 fell 3.14% on Friday. Supply decreased last week, imports declined in September. Demand for related materials increased in October, expected to de - stock. Strong reality supports price, but there's profit - taking pressure. Suggest waiting and considering double - selling [1]. - **Tin**: Market traded Fed rate - cut expectation decline and Sino - US leaders' meeting利好落地. Supply is lower than expected, demand is supported in the short - term. Inventory is at a historical low. Price is expected to be oscillatingly strong [2]. Black Industries - **Rebar**: Price of 2601 contract fell 20 yuan/ton. Supply - demand contradiction is limited, structural differentiation is significant. Macro sentiment improved last week, price may weaken marginally. Suggest taking profit on long positions [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Price of 2601 contract rose 2.5 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is neutral and deteriorating. Macro sentiment improved last week, price may weaken marginally. Suggest taking profit on long positions and short - selling for aggressive investors [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Price of 2601 contract fell 12.5 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is affected by production decline and price increase. Futures are over - valued. Suggest waiting and short - selling for aggressive investors [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans continued to rise on Friday, trading on optimistic trade expectations. US soybeans may have a slight reduction, South America has an increasing production expectation. US soybeans are short - term strong, domestic market follows the cost side [4][5]. - **Corn**: Futures price oscillated narrowly, spot price varied regionally. Inventory needs building, but new grain is coming. Price is expected to be oscillatingly weak [5]. - **Oils and Fats**: Malaysian palm oil market is weak. Supply in Malaysia increased in October, exports also rose. Near - term inventory is accumulating, long - term has a production decline expectation. Oils are weak and differentiated, suggest reverse arbitrage [5]. - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar fell 3.67% last week, Zhengzhou sugar rose 0.68%. Internationally, production is increasing, domestically, policy news boosted the price. Suggest short - selling futures and selling call options [5]. - **Cotton**: US cotton futures rebounded on Friday. International policy changes and Japanese import data are positive. Domestically, Xinjiang's cotton purchase is nearly over. Suggest waiting and using interval strategies [5]. - **Eggs**: Futures price oscillated narrowly, spot price fell slightly. Supply pressure eases, demand recovers seasonally. Price is expected to be oscillatingly strong [5]. - **Hogs**: Futures price is weak, spot price fell. Supply is increasing, demand may increase seasonally, but supply pressure is still large. Price is expected to be weak [6]. - **Apples**: Price is stable in Shandong. Storage in Gansu is not optimistic, in Shaanxi, purchase is affected by disease. High - quality apples are in high demand. Suggest waiting [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Market oscillated slightly on Friday. Supply pressure eases, demand is in the off - season. Short - term price is oscillatingly weak, long - term supply will be more abundant. Suggest short - selling on highs or reverse arbitrage [7]. - **PVC**: Price of V01 fell 1.3%. High inventory suppresses price, supply increased, demand's开工率 rose slightly, exports increased. Suggest short - selling or reverse arbitrage [7]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, PTA has some supply - side adjustments. Polyester demand is good, PX is expected to be strong, PTA has long - term supply pressure. Suggest long - PX and short - PTA processing fees [7][8]. - **Rubber**: Price of RU2601 fell 2.65%. Raw material prices are stable, downstream观望. Production capacity utilization decreased, inventory is turning to accumulation. Suggest band - trading [8]. - **Glass**: Price of FG01 fell 1.1%. Supply will increase, inventory is accumulating, demand is weak. Suggest short - selling or reverse arbitrage [8]. - **PP**: Market oscillated slightly on Friday. Supply is increasing, demand is in the off - season. Short - term price is oscillatingly weak, long - term supply will be more abundant. Suggest short - selling on highs or reverse arbitrage [8]. - **MEG**: Supply is at a high level, inventory is low. Polyester demand is good, but overall supply - demand is in accumulation. Suggest short - selling on highs [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Price oscillated downwards this week. Supply pressure is increasing, demand is seasonally weak. Price is expected to be oscillating, short - selling on highs if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day [9]. - **Styrene**: Market oscillated slightly on Friday. Supply's inventory is at a normal to high level, demand is in the off - season. Short - term price is oscillatingly weak, long - term supply will be more abundant. Suggest short - selling on highs or reverse arbitrage [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Price of sa01 fell 2.1%. Supply is in high - production season, inventory is balanced. Suggest waiting [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends across different commodity sectors, with factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and policy changes influencing prices. For example, the Fed's interest rate decisions, Sino - US trade negotiations, and seasonal production patterns all play significant roles [3][4]. - Different commodities have distinct investment outlooks. Some are expected to be bullish in the short - term or long - term, while others are likely to be bearish or range - bound. For instance, gold may have short - term volatility but is supported by the de - dollarization logic, while some energy and chemical products may face supply - driven downward pressure in the long run [4][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: After a sharp decline in price, it is recommended to buy on dips as the short - term trend is a pull - back after hitting a new high. The Fed's rate cut and Sino - US relations, along with LME's position limits, have affected the market [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to be oscillating strongly. With a warm domestic macro - environment, eased Sino - US trade friction, and overseas power supply issues, it is advisable to buy on dips [3]. - **Alumina**: The price is expected to decline as it returns to the fundamental surplus logic. However, the spot price shows signs of stabilizing. Buying call options on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to the main position changes [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term price is expected to be strong due to high spot demand. High - frequency monitoring of inventory and warehouse receipt changes is recommended, and chasing long positions should be done with caution [5]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, considering factors such as the Fed's rate cut, Sino - US relations, and LME's position limits [5]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to have significant short - term volatility. Buying on support levels is recommended, and silver long positions should be reduced. The de - dollarization logic remains, but market reactions to the Fed's decisions and Sino - US negotiations are complex [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Hold long positions, with the RB01 reference range of 3060 - 3130 yuan/ton. The overall supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is significant structural differentiation [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Hold long positions, with the I01 reference range of 780 - 810 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is marginally neutral - strong, and the inventory build - up may be slower than the historical average [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with the JM01 reference range of 1270 - 1320 yuan/ton. The futures valuation is high, and there is an expectation of production contraction [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are short - term bullish, focusing on trade negotiations. The domestic market is range - bound, following the cost side. Attention should be paid to tariff policy progress [8]. - **Corn**: The futures price is expected to be oscillating weakly due to factors such as damaged grain quality in North China, new grain listing pressure, and production cost reduction [8]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils are bearish with structural differences. An anti - spread strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to production areas' output and biodiesel policies [8]. - **Cotton**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with a range - bound strategy between 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton, considering factors such as the strength of the US dollar and Sino - US trade negotiations [8]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is expected to be range - bound as the pressure eases [9]. - **Pigs**: The futures price is expected to be range - bound with improved demand and reduced second - fattening [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, as new devices are put into operation, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Short positions or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered on rallies [10]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance. Short positions or anti - spreads are recommended [10]. - **PTA**: The medium - term supply - demand pattern is improving. Long positions are recommended, and shorting the processing margin on rallies is advisable [10]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to have a short - term pull - back and a medium - term range - bound trend. Band - trading is recommended [11]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance. An anti - spread strategy is recommended [11]. - **PP**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Short positions or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered on rallies [11]. - **MEG**: In the long - term, there is a large inventory build - up pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended [11]. - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, it is expected to be oscillating. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and attention should be paid to the reduction of Russian oil exports [11]. - **Styrene**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Shorting on rallies or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand is balanced, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [12].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips as stock index long - positions can provide certain excess returns [2]. - For bond futures, short - term is bullish, the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds is attractive, and the central bank's bond trading sends positive signals; long - term, with rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, suggest hedging T and TL on rallies [2]. 3. Section Summaries (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 30, A - share major indices declined: Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.73% to 3986.9 points, Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.16% to 13532.13 points, ChiNext Index decreased 1.84% to 3263.02 points, and STAR 50 Index declined 1.87% to 1461.3 points. Market turnover was 24,643 billion yuan, up 173.6 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - In terms of industry sectors, steel (+0.9%), non - ferrous metals (+0.79%), and public utilities (+0.13%) led the gains; communication (-2.83%), electronics (-2.23%), and national defense and military industry (-1.95%) led the losses [1]. - In terms of market strength, IH>IF>IM>IC, with 1,238 stocks rising, 102 flat, and 4,097 falling. Institutional, major, large - scale, and retail investors' net capital inflows were - 46.7 billion, - 29.9 billion, 22.7 billion, and 53.8 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 50.1 billion, - 25.9 billion, + 30.7 billion, and + 45.2 billion yuan [1]. - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 120.68, 86.71, 19.91, and 1.61 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 10.89%, - 7.93%, - 2.86%, and - 0.36%, and three - year historical quantiles of 34%, 28%, 32%, and 41% [1]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 30, the bond market had a weak rebound. Among active contracts, TS fell 0.01%, TF was flat, T rose 0.05%, and TL rose 0.19% [2]. - For the current active 2512 contracts, the CTD bond of 2 - year Treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of + 0bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.049, and an IRR of 1.88%; for 5 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 250003.IB, with a yield change of - 1.2bps, a net basis of - 0.023, and an IRR of 1.68%; for 10 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 250018.IB, with a yield change of - 1.9bps, a net basis of - 0.026, and an IRR of 1.67%; for 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 2bps, a net basis of - 0.1, and an IRR of 2.14% [2]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 342.6 billion yuan and withdrew 212.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 130.1 billion yuan [2]. (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recent social activities, real estate, and infrastructure have lower than usual prosperity, while manufacturing has good prosperity [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It presents market performance, fundamental factors, and trading strategies for each commodity, offering insights for investors to make informed decisions in the futures market. Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: Yesterday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.73% to 21,295 yuan/ton. The LME price was 2,904 dollars/ton. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate remained stable. With a warm domestic macro - environment, eased Sino - US trade friction, and potential overseas production cuts due to power shortages, the price is expected to be oscillating strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the alumina main contract rose by 2.20% yesterday. Some alumina plants resumed production, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. With the spot price showing signs of stopping decline and the influence of "anti - involution" news, the main short - sellers significantly reduced their positions. It is suggested to buy call options on dips and follow the changes in the positions of the main seats [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main 01 contract closed at 9,170 yuan/ton, up 2.40%. Supply may decrease in the southwest in late October. Social and warehouse inventories decreased slightly. The high - inventory pressure remains. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,600 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: LC2601 closed at 82,900 yuan/ton, up 1.5%. Supply reached a new high last week, and demand was strong in October. It is expected to maintain a shortage in the short - term. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to closely monitor the reduction of warehouse receipts and be cautious when chasing up [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract of rebar closed at 3,138 yuan/ton. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a reference range of 3,090 - 3,160 yuan/ton for RB01 [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 807.5 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is neutral to strong, and it is expected that the inventory accumulation will be slightly slower than the historical average. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a reference range of 790 - 820 yuan/ton for I01 [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,303.5 yuan/ton. Steel mill profits are deteriorating, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to mainly wait and see, with a reference range of 1,270 - 1,320 yuan/ton for JM01 [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans are short - term strong, trading on optimistic trade expectations. Globally, high - inventory expectations remain. The domestic market is following the cost side and oscillating. Attention should be paid to tariff policy progress [5]. - **Corn**: Corn futures are weak, and the spot price is mixed. With expected new - crop production increase and cost reduction, the spot price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [5]. - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term Malaysian palm oil market is falling. The near - term palm oil in Malaysia is accumulating inventory, and the long - term may see seasonal production cuts. Oils and fats are weak with variety differentiation, and it is recommended to focus on the P structure for reverse spreads [5]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5,496 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. Brazil's next - season production increase is expected. If the northern hemisphere's production increase is realized, the domestic sugar price will face downward pressure. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [5]. - **Cotton**: Overnight, US cotton futures rose. International and domestic market performances are mixed. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a strategy in the 13,400 - 13,700 yuan/ton range [5][6]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures are rising, and the spot price is stable. With sufficient supply and low vegetable prices, egg prices are expected to be low. The futures price is expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - **Hogs**: Hog futures are oscillating narrowly, and the spot price is partially rising. With increasing supply, rising slaughter volume, and secondary fattening, hog prices are expected to repair through oscillation [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE main contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The domestic supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace, and the demand is improving. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spreads [7]. - **PVC**: V01 closed at 4,775, up 1%. The fundamentals are weak, with increased supply, high inventory, and uncertain demand. It is recommended to short [7]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, and PTA production is increasing. Polyester demand is improving, and PTA is slightly de - stocking. It is recommended to go long on PX and short the PTA processing fee on rallies [7][8]. - **Rubber**: RU2601 closed at 15,625 yuan/ton, up 1.56%. The inventory in Qingdao decreased. With a warm macro - environment, the market confidence is boosted. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US summit [8]. - **Glass**: FG01 closed at 1,128, up 1.6%. The supply is high, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to do reverse spreads [8]. - **PP**: The PP main contract oscillated slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season but with some demand overdraft. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spreads [8]. - **MEG**: The MEG East China spot price is 4,152 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is large, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to short on rallies [8]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract oscillated slightly. The supply and demand contradictions are large. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spreads [9]. - **Soda Ash**: SA01 closed at 1,260, up 1.1%. The supply and demand are balanced. It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in the October meeting is close to 100%, but there are contradictions in the future economic outlook. Different commodities have different market trends and investment strategies based on their supply - demand fundamentals [1]. - For metals, base metals have different price trends and investment advice. For example, aluminum is expected to fluctuate, while zinc is advised to be short - sold at high prices [1]. - In the black industry, steel and iron ore are recommended to hold long positions, while coking coal is advised to be on the sidelines [3]. - In the agricultural products market, different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and cotton have their own market characteristics and investment strategies, mainly including short - term strength, weakening, or range - bound trading [5]. - In the energy and chemical industry, different products like LLDPE, PVC, and PTA have different supply - demand situations and investment suggestions, including short - term weak fluctuations and long - term short - selling strategies [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: The international gold price denominated in London Gold fell below the $3900 support. The de - dollarization logic remains, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is close to 100%. It is expected to be highly volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to buy at the lower support level [1]. - **Silver**: The liquidity of the London silver market has eased, and the physical lease rate has dropped significantly. It is recommended to reduce long positions [1]. Base Metals - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 1.03%. The supply side maintains high - load production, and the demand side has stable weekly aluminum product start - up rates. It is expected to fluctuate due to the general acceptance of high prices by downstream and inventory accumulation [1]. - **Alumina**: The price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.42%. Some alumina plants have resumed production, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. The short - term market remains in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Zinc**: The price of the Shanghai zinc 2511 contract decreased by 0.16%. The supply pressure continues due to the loose mine end, and the consumption performance is average. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [1]. - **Lead**: The price of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract decreased by 0.86%. The supply has changed from regional tightness to general tightness, and the demand has rigid support. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract of rebar rose. The steel building material inventory decreased, and the demand is in the peak season with marginal improvement. It is recommended to hold long positions [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract of iron ore rose. The supply and demand are moderately strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract of coking coal fell. The steel mill profits have deteriorated, and the supply side has inventory differentiation. It is recommended to be on the sidelines [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean continued to rise. The global soybean is expected to maintain a high - inventory trend. The U.S. soybean is short - term strong, and the domestic market is range - bound following the cost side [5]. - **Corn**: The corn futures price is weak, and the spot price fluctuates. The new crop is expected to increase in production, and the price is expected to be weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. - **Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil futures price fell. The supply side has good production, and the demand side has a slight decline in exports. It is expected to be weak, and the P structure is recommended for reverse arbitrage [5]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract rose. The Brazilian sugarcane is expected to increase in production, and the domestic sugar price may face downward pressure if the northern hemisphere's production increase is realized. It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market and sell call options [5]. - **Cotton**: The overnight U.S. cotton futures price stopped falling and rebounded. The domestic cotton price fluctuated within a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see, with a range - bound strategy [5]. - **Egg**: The egg futures and spot prices fell. The demand has increased, but the supply is sufficient. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. - **Live Pig**: The live pig futures price fell, and the spot price rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand has improved. The futures price is expected to repair through fluctuations [6]. - **Apple**: The apple futures price rose. The spot price in some regions increased, and the market sentiment is optimistic. It is recommended to be on the sidelines [6]. Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE**: The main contract of LLDPE fell slightly. The supply pressure is increasing but at a slower pace, and the demand is in the peak season. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and be short - sold at high prices in the long term [7]. - **PVC**: The V01 contract of PVC fell. The supply has increased, and the demand has slightly recovered. It is recommended to short - sell or conduct reverse arbitrage [7]. - **PTA**: The PX supply is stable, and the PTA supply pressure is large in the long term. The downstream demand is improving. It is recommended to long - buy PX and short - sell the PTA processing fee [8]. - **Rubber**: The RU2601 contract of rubber fluctuated within a narrow range. The raw material price rose, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend [8]. - **Glass**: The FG01 contract of glass rose. The supply is high, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended for reverse arbitrage [8]. - **PP**: The main contract of PP fluctuated slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season but with some demand overdraft. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and be short - sold at high prices in the long term [8]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply pressure is large, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [9]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract of styrene fell slightly. The supply and demand contradictions are large, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and be short - sold at high prices in the long term [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA01 contract of soda ash remained flat. The supply and demand are balanced, and it is recommended to be on the sidelines [9].

Market Performance - On October 28, the four major A-share stock indices adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.22% to close at 3988.22 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.44% to close at 13430.1 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.15% to close at 3229.58 points, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.84% to close at 1471.73 points. The market turnover was 2.1653 trillion yuan, a decrease of 191.3 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, communication (+0.08%), electronics (-0.37%), and comprehensive (+2.06%) led the gains; media (-0.44%), food and beverage (-0.01%), and real estate (-0.23%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IM>IF>IC>IH. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2362/170/2904 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -15.4 billion, -18.7 billion, 3 billion, and 31.1 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -15.7 billion, -10.8 billion, +3.4 billion, and +23.1 billion yuan respectively [2]. - On October 28, the bond market continued to rebound. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.08%, TF rose 0.15%, T rose 0.25%, and TL rose 0.55% [3]. Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 143.62, 110.03, 22.37, and -1.18 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -12.31%, -9.61%, -3.06%, and 0.25%. The three - year historical quantiles were 26%, 20%, 30%, and 48% respectively [3]. - In the medium - to - long term, the report maintains the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock indices as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips [3]. Treasury Bond Futures - The current active contract is the 2512 contract. For the 2 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250012.IB, with a yield change of -4bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.005, and an IRR of 1.52%; for the 5 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250003.IB, with a yield change of -3.25bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.047, and an IRR of 1.9%; for the 10 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 220017.IB, with a yield change of -3.5bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.047, and an IRR of 1.91%; for the 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210014.IB, with a yield change of -3.75bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.038, and an IRR of 1.78% [4]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 475.3 billion yuan and withdrew 159.5 billion yuan through open - market operations, resulting in a net injection of 315.8 billion yuan [4]. - In the short term, it is bullish as the central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading releases a positive signal. In the medium - to - long term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [4]. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recently, the prosperity of social activities, real estate, and infrastructure is lower than in previous periods, while the manufacturing prosperity is good [11].

Report Title - "Cycle, Technology, and Geopolitics: A Triple - Drive for the Non - Ferrous Metals Market" [1] Report Date and Researcher - Date: October 29, 2025 - Researcher: Ma Yun, mayun@cmschina.com.cn, contact number: 18682466799, qualification certificate number: Z0018708 [2] Table of Contents - 01 Cycle: Supply, Demand, and Liquidity - 02 Technology: Applications of Metals in Emerging Fields - 03 Geopolitics: Strategic Materials in the Context of Great - Power Rivalry - 04 Summary: A Triple - Hit under the Metal Pricing Framework [4] Core Views - The non - ferrous metals market is driven by the triple factors of cycle, technology, and geopolitics. The cycle affects the market from aspects of liquidity, supply, and demand; technology brings new demand through metal applications in emerging fields; geopolitics impacts metal prices through strategic material status and currency - related factors [1] Section Summaries Cycle: Supply, Demand, and Liquidity Liquidity - The Federal Reserve is in a rate - cutting cycle, and major economies are in a fiscal expansion period. For example, the U.S. has passed the Big Beautiful Act, discussing the end of balance - sheet reduction and facing a mid - term election next year; the EU Commission predicts that the EU's fiscal deficit rate will rise to 3.3% in 2025 and remain at this level in 2026, with the debt - to - GDP ratio rising from 83.2% in 2025 to 84.5% in 2026; Japan is preparing an economic stimulus plan of over 13.9 trillion yen, and advancing the defense - spending target; China is implementing fiscal expansion, shifting from loose money to loose credit [5][8][10] Supply - There is insufficient capital expenditure in the mining industry, natural decline in mine grades, and depletion of mine resources. This phenomenon is not limited to copper enterprises, and different metal varieties have different investment cycles [11][12] Demand - China provides the beta for metal demand, while emerging countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia provide the alpha. The demand for metals in new energy fields such as photovoltaic and new - energy vehicles is also increasing [14][21][23] Technology: Applications of Metals in Emerging Fields - The report does not provide specific content in the given text Geopolitics: Strategic Materials in the Context of Great - Power Rivalry - The U.S. has updated its key mineral list several times. In 2025 (expected), it plans to add 6 minerals such as copper, potassium, silicon, and silver, and consider removing arsenic and tellurium. Some countries have high concentrations in metal production, like Chile and Peru accounting for about 40% of global copper production, and Congo accounting for 75% of global cobalt production. China has a high degree of dependence on most metals except rare earths. Also, the pricing currency hegemony is being challenged, leading to a decline in the trust of global fiat currencies and a re - evaluation of physical assets [24][27] Summary: A Triple - Hit under the Metal Pricing Framework - The report provides a metal pricing framework including factors such as stock price formula, metal price fluctuation formula, and considerations from macro, supply - demand, valuation, and market - behavior aspects, and finally gives trading strategies based on the analysis results [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, with a recommendation to buy at support levels for gold and reduce long positions in silver [1]. - The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to be volatile and bullish, while the alumina price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [2]. - Zinc is recommended to be short - sold at high prices, and lead is recommended to be bought on pullbacks [2][3]. - Industrial silicon is expected to trade in the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be in short supply in the short - term, with prices volatile and bullish, and it is necessary to closely monitor the reduction of warehouse receipts [3]. - Polysilicon's 11 - contract has a price bottom support at 48,000 yuan, and the 12 - contract and later contracts are expected to trade in the range of 50,000 - 58,000 yuan, with a suggestion to buy on dips [3][4]. - In the black industry, it is recommended to go long on the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract and the iron ore 2605 contract, and to wait and see for coking coal [4]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans are short - term bullish, corn is expected to be volatile and bearish, oils and fats are bearish, sugar is recommended to be short - sold in the futures market and sell call options, cotton is advisable to wait and see, eggs are expected to be range - bound, pigs are expected to recover, and apples are advisable to wait and see [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE and PP are expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the long - term, PVC is recommended to be short - sold or in a reverse spread, PTA is recommended to be long - bought in the medium - term and short - sold for processing fees in the long - term, rubber is expected to be range - bound, glass is recommended to be in a reverse spread, MEG is recommended to be short - sold at high prices, styrene is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term, and soda ash is advisable to wait and see [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - **Market Performance**: International gold priced in London gold fell below the $4000 support on Monday [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Trump extended the US - Mexico trade negotiation period, and there were multiple international trade and policy events. Gold and silver inventories in various markets changed, and ETF holdings decreased [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in October. It is recommended to buy gold at support levels and reduce long positions in silver [1]. Basic Metals Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The electrolytic aluminum main contract rose 0.64% to 21,360 yuan/ton, and the alumina main contract rose 0.68% to 2829 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate was stable. Some alumina plants resumed production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to be volatile and bullish, and the alumina price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai zinc 2511 contract fell 0.02% to 22,310 yuan/ton, and social inventories increased slightly [2][3]. - **Fundamentals**: The mine supply was abundant, smelting profits were high, and consumption was flat [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell at high prices [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai lead 2511 contract fell 0.62% to 17,525 yuan/ton, and social inventories decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply became generally tight, and there was still rigid demand from lead - acid batteries [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on pullbacks [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 01 contract rose 0.50% to 8965 yuan/ton, with increased positions and decreased warehouse receipts [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply might decrease in the future, and demand was relatively stable [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade in the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and wait and see [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2601 rose 2.9% to 81,900 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and demand was strong, with expected inventory reduction [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, and closely monitor the reduction of warehouse receipts [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 01 contract rose 4.20% to 54,500 yuan/ton, with increased positions and decreased warehouse receipts [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply might decrease, demand was relatively stable, and the fourth - quarter photovoltaic installation growth was under pressure [3][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 11 - contract has a price bottom support at 48,000 yuan, and the 12 - contract and later contracts are expected to trade in the range of 50,000 - 58,000 yuan, with a suggestion to buy on dips [3][4]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The rebar 2601 contract rose to 3111 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Building material inventories decreased, and the supply - demand contradiction was limited but with significant structural differentiation [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract, and the RB01 reference range is 3070 - 3140 yuan/ton [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore 2601 contract rose to 790.5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was in line with the seasonal pattern, and demand was relatively strong, with expected slow inventory accumulation [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the iron ore 2605 contract, and the I01 reference range is 780 - 810 yuan/ton [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal 2601 contract rose to 1262 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side inventories were differentiated, and there was an expected production reduction [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and the JM01 reference range is 1230 - 1270 yuan/ton [4]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: US soybeans had a slight reduction in production, and South America had an expected increase in production. Demand was differentiated [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are short - term bullish, and domestic soybeans are range - bound, paying attention to tariff policies [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices were weak, and spot prices fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Corn quality in North China was damaged, and new grain was about to be listed, with weak downstream demand [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to be volatile and bearish [6]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Malaysian palm oil production increased, and exports decreased, with inventory accumulation in the near term [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats are bearish, and the P structure is suitable for reverse spreads [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract rose 0.2% to 5444 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase, and domestic sugar production is uncertain. The market may face downward pressure if northern hemisphere production increases [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: US cotton futures prices fluctuated, and Zhengzhou cotton was range - bound [6]. - **Fundamentals**: US cotton quality was good, and Vietnam's textile exports increased. Domestic cotton acquisition in northern Xinjiang was coming to an end [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with a range - bound strategy of 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices rose, and spot prices were mixed [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Egg prices were low, demand increased, but supply was sufficient, and vegetable prices dragged down egg prices [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to be range - bound [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices continued to rebound, and spot prices rose [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Pig supply increased, slaughter volume recovered, and secondary fattening entered the market [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to recover [7]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose 0.97% to 8936 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Apple prices in some regions rose, the overall quality was poor, and inventory was low [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract fluctuated slightly, and the import window was closed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and demand improved in the agricultural film season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile in the short - term, and bearish in the long - term, with suggestions to short - sell at high prices or in a reverse spread [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V01 rose 0.6% to 4747 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory was high [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell or in a reverse spread [8]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PX CFR China price was 821 dollars/ton, and PTA spot price was 4505 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: PX supply was high, PTA production increased, and polyester demand improved [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - buy in the medium - term and short - sell for processing fees in the long - term [9]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: RU2601 closed at 15380 yuan/ton, up 0.2% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Raw material prices were supportive, and inventory decreased [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound in the short - term with strong support at the bottom [9]. Glass - **Market Performance**: FG01 closed flat at 1095 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was high, demand was weak, and inventory accumulated [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Reverse spread [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract fluctuated slightly, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and demand improved during the peak season but was affected by previous subsidies [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile in the short - term, and bearish in the long - term, with suggestions to short - sell at high prices or in a reverse spread [9]. MEG - **Market Performance**: MEG spot price was 4183 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 84 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was high, and inventory was expected to accumulate [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell at high prices [10]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract fell slightly, and the import window was closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand contradictions were large, and demand was affected by previous subsidies [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile and bearish in the short - term, and bearish in the long - term, with suggestions to short - sell at high prices or in a reverse spread [10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: SA01 rose 1.3% to 1247 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand were balanced, and inventory increased slightly [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long positions in forward contracts of various varieties on dips [1]. - For bond futures, take a short - term bullish stance. The implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 is considered cost - effective. For the medium - to long - term, with rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is advisable to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On October 27, the four major A - share stock indices continued to be strong. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.18% to 3996.94 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.51% to 13489.4 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.98% to 3234.45 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 1.5% to 1484.21 points. Market turnover was 23,566 billion yuan, an increase of 3,650 billion yuan from the previous day. Communication, electronics, and comprehensive sectors led the gains, while media, food and beverage, and real estate sectors led the losses. In terms of market strength, IC > IF > IM > IH. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 3,360, 217, and 1,859 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 4, - 80, - 4, and 79 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 183, - 42, + 106, and + 119 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Basis and Basis Annualized Yield**: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was 172.78, 124.99, 31.62, and 2.73 points respectively, and the basis annualized yields were - 14.41%, - 10.59%, - 4.19%, and - 0.56% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 18%, 17%, 21%, and 39% respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to long - term, maintain a bullish view on the economy. Using stock index futures as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long positions in forward contracts of various varieties on dips [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On October 27, the bond market rebounded. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.05%, TF rose 0.12%, T rose 0.15%, and TL rose 0.32% [1]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2512 contract. The CTD bonds, yield changes, corresponding net basis, and IRR for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bond futures are provided [1]. - **Funding Situation**: The central bank injected 3,373 billion yuan into the market and withdrew 1,890 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 1,483 billion yuan [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term bullish, the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 is cost - effective. For the medium - to long - term, with rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is advisable to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [1]. 3.3 Economic Data High - frequency data shows that the recent prosperity of social activities, real estate, and infrastructure is lower than in previous periods, while the manufacturing prosperity is good [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, but there are contradictions in the Fed's outlook. Gold prices may fluctuate significantly in the short - term [1]. - For base metals, copper and tin are recommended to be bought at low prices, aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, and alumina is expected to be volatile in the short - term [2][3][4]. - In the black industry, steel prices are expected to rise with the support of macro - factors, and it is recommended to go long on the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract [5]. - In the agricultural products market, the situation varies by product. For example, soybeans are short - term bullish, while corn is expected to be weak [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, different products have different trends. Some are expected to be volatile, and some are recommended for short - selling or waiting and seeing [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: The international gold market is in a weak oscillation. Domestic gold ETFs are flowing in, while overseas ETFs are reducing positions. It is recommended to buy at the lower support level [1]. - **Silver**: Inventory changes vary in different markets. It is recommended to reduce long positions [1]. 3.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices rose on Friday. The supply of copper ore is tight, and it is recommended to buy at low prices [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, while the price of alumina is expected to be volatile in the short - term [2][3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is expected to oscillate between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot demand is high, and the price is expected to be bullish in the short - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the reduction of warehouse receipts [3]. - **Polysilicon**: For different contracts, different trading strategies are recommended, such as buying at low prices for the 12 - month and later contracts [3]. - **Tin**: Prices are oscillating strongly. It is recommended to buy at low prices [3][4]. 3.3 Black Industry - **Rebar**: The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and it is recommended to go long on the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand is neutral to bullish, and prices are expected to rise with macro - support [5]. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to wait and see [5]. 3.4 Agricultural Products Market - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are short - term bullish, and the domestic situation depends on the Sino - US tariff policy [6][7]. - **Corn**: Prices are expected to be weak with the pressure of new crop listing [7]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils are weak, and the P structure is suitable for reverse arbitrage [7]. - **Sugar**: It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to wait and see within the 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton range [7]. - **Eggs**: Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [7]. - **Pigs**: Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [7][8]. - **Apples**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [8]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to short - sell due to weak supply and demand [8]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price provides support, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating [8][9]. - **Glass**: It is recommended to short - sell the 01 contract and long - buy the 05 contract for reverse arbitrage [9]. - **PP**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [9]. - **Crude Oil**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, paying attention to the reduction of Russian oil exports [9]. - **Styrene**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [9][10]. - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to wait and see or conduct light - position reverse arbitrage [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is recommended to wait and see due to large supply in Shandong [10].