铁矿石： "反内卷"环境下的再平衡 2025年7月 ·研究员-游洋, CFA ·联系电话：13426249707 ·youyang@cmschina.com.cn ·执业资格号: Z0019846 2025年7月 WIND，招商期货 上半年跌幅：焦煤（28.2%）> 螺纹（9.4%）> 热卷(8.5%) > 铁矿（7.9%） 期货研究报告 | 商品研究 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Dec-07 Aug-08 Apr-09 Dec-09 Aug-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 （亿美元） 中国对东盟、非洲、拉美、俄罗斯出口当月值 中国对其他地区出口当月值 中国对东盟、非洲、拉美、俄罗斯出口当月占比（右轴） 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec x 0.01 （万吨） 钢材净出口（含钢坯） 2021 2022 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, the report maintains a long - term bullish view on the economy. It suggests that using stock indices as a long - position substitute can yield certain excess returns, and recommends buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2]. - For treasury bond futures, due to the upward trend in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for T and TL contracts in the medium - to - long term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On July 23, the four major A - share stock indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to 3582.3 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.37% to 11059.04 points; the ChiNext Index fell 0.01% to 2310.67 points; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 0.45% to 1020.86 points. Market turnover was 1898.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Non - bank finance, beauty care, and household appliances led the gains, while building materials, national defense and military industry, and machinery led the losses. In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 1269, 121, and 4025 respectively. Net capital inflows from institutions, main players, large - scale investors, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 17 billion, - 23.8 billion, 1.2 billion, and 39.7 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 3.2 billion, - 2.3 billion, - 2 billion, and + 7.5 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 107.22, 76.76, 10.57, and - 1.6 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 9.43%, - 7.2%, - 1.49%, and 0.33%. Their three - year historical quantiles were 40%, 29%, 43%, and 49% respectively [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - term, maintain a bullish view on the economy, and recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On July 23, the yields of treasury bond futures rose across the board. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.39, up 2.26 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.553, up 1.93 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.65, up 1.59 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 1.991, up 0.79 bps [2]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of + 2.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.022, and an IRR of 1.63%. For the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, with a yield change of + 1.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.018, and an IRR of 1.6%. For the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 220010.IB, with a yield change of + 2 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.021, and an IRR of 1.62%. For the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210014.IB, with a yield change of - 0.82 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.093, and an IRR of 1.02% [2]. - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 150.5 billion yuan and withdrew 520.1 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 369.6 billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the upward trend in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for T and TL contracts in the medium - to - long term [2]. (3) Economic Data High - frequency data shows that the real estate sector has recently seen a contraction in prosperity, while the manufacturing sector has recovered in prosperity after the industrial added value in June exceeded the same period [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views - The overall commodity futures market shows a complex situation with different trends and trading strategies for various commodities. Some commodities are expected to be volatile, while others have specific supply - demand and price trends. For example, some metals are affected by supply - demand fundamentals and geopolitical factors, and agricultural products are influenced by weather, policy, and seasonal factors [1][5]. Summaries by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Yesterday, copper prices fluctuated weakly. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the demand shows a differentiation. The short - term trading strategy is to view copper prices as fluctuating strongly, as the US dollar index is consolidating at a key support level [1]. - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum plant maintains high - load production, and the demand is in the traditional off - season but with a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate. With the upcoming policy and cost support, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Alumina**: The production of alumina plants is stable, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is stable. The bullish sentiment is fading, and the price is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to policy and position structure changes [1]. - **Zinc**: The supply pressure of zinc ingots continues, and the consumption is weak in the off - season. There is a risk of a short squeeze in the LME. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and the long - term view is bearish [1]. - **Lead**: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in the LME. The trading strategy is to operate within a range [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply is expected to increase in July, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The price is expected to turn into a wide - range fluctuation, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Tin**: The supply side focuses on the resumption of production in Wa State, and the demand shows a situation of weak supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the short - squeeze risk under the ultra - low inventory in London [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The supply and demand of building materials are weak, but the inventory pressure is small. The overall supply and demand of steel are balanced, but there is a significant structural differentiation. It is recommended to wait and see, and multi - orders should be closed at an appropriate time [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the demand is relatively strong. The inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, and multi - orders should be closed at an appropriate time. A long position in the 2605 volume - to - ore ratio can be arranged [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply and demand are relatively loose, but the fundamentals are slowly improving. The futures price is overvalued. It is recommended to wait and see, and multi - orders should be closed at an appropriate time [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The international soybean supply is expected to be loose, and the US soybean export demand is uncertain. The domestic soybean arrival is large, and the demand is high. It is recommended to follow the international cost side and pay attention to weather and tariff policies [5]. - **Corn**: The remaining grain is scarce, and the demand for domestic corn is affected by substitutes. The price is expected to fluctuate after a continuous decline [5]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract rose. The domestic sugar market is affected by imports and macro - sentiment. The later price of the 09 contract is expected to be weakly volatile [5]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton growth and demand show different trends, and the domestic cotton inventory is decreasing. The trading strategy is to buy on dips and operate within a range [5][6]. - **Palm Oil**: The supply in Malaysia is in the seasonal increase period, and the demand shows a decline in exports but support in year - on - year demand. It is recommended to be bullish in the short - term and focus on production and biodiesel policies [6]. - **Eggs**: High temperatures reduce the egg - laying rate, and the demand from food factories may increase seasonally, but the cold - storage egg inventory is high. The egg price is expected to be strong in the short - term [6]. - **Pigs**: The consumption of pigs is seasonally weak, and the supply is increasing. The pig price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [6]. - **Apples**: The opening price of new - season early - maturing apples has increased, and the market is waiting for the results of bag - removal. The current consumption is light, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The domestic supply is increasing, and the import is expected to decrease. The demand is improving in the post - off - season of agricultural film. The short - term trading strategy is to expect fluctuations, and the long - term strategy is to short far - month contracts on rallies [7]. - **PVC**: The supply of PVC is expected to increase, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to close short - positions and wait for policy implementation [8]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate around 15,000, and attention should be paid to the pressure level at 15,300 [8]. - **Glass**: The glass supply is expected to increase, and the inventory is decreasing. The trading strategy is to wait and see for policy implementation [8]. - **PP**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term strategy is to short far - month contracts on rallies [8]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply is increasing, and the demand has short - term support but long - term risks. The trading strategy is to short on rallies, especially near SC530 yuan/barrel [9]. - **Styrene**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is under pressure. The short - term is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term strategy is to short far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply and demand of soda ash have no substantial improvement, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to wait and see [9].

金融研究 2025年7月23日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：7 月 22 日，A 股四大股指全线强势，其中上证指数上涨 0.62%，报收 3581.86 点；深成 指上涨 0.84%，报收 11099.83 点；创业板指上涨 0.61%，报收 2310.86 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.83%， 报收 1016.27 点。市场成交 19,286 亿元，较前日增加 2,015 亿元。行业板块方面，煤炭(+6.18%)， 建筑材料(+4.49%)，建筑装饰(+3.38%)涨幅居前；银行(-0.98%)，计算机(-0.73%)，通信(-0.43%)跌 幅居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IF>IH>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,539/152/2,723。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-138、-215、31、322 亿元，分别变动-129、-88、+77、+139 亿元。 股指期货 国债期货 现券：目前活跃合约为 2509 合约，2 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 250006.IB，收益率变动+0bps，对应 净基差-0.014，IRR1.56%；5 年期国债期货 CTD ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold; for silver, short - term risk avoidance is recommended, but there are still short - selling opportunities in the long run [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at low prices; for alumina, close attention should be paid to policy implementation and other factors; for lithium carbonate, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1][2][3]. - For the black industry, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach, and for some products, long positions should be closed at appropriate times [4]. - For agricultural products, soybean meal lacks a real driving force; corn is expected to fluctuate; sugar is recommended to go short; cotton is recommended to go long at low prices; palm oil is short - term strong; eggs are expected to be strong; pork is expected to fluctuate and adjust; and apples are recommended to wait and see [6][7]. - For energy and chemical products, LLDPE is short - term strong and long - term supply is expected to be loose; PVC is recommended to wait and see; PX is recommended to be long - allocated, and PTA is recommended to short - sell processing fees; glass is recommended to wait and see; PP is short - term volatile and long - term supply is expected to be loose; MEG is expected to be weak; crude oil is recommended to go short at high prices; EB is short - term volatile and long - term supply is expected to be loose; and soda ash is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals Gold - Market performance: On Tuesday, precious metal prices continued to strengthen, with the London gold price breaking through $3400 [1]. - Fundamentals: Trump announced trade agreements, and there were changes in gold inventories in different markets [1]. - Trading strategy: The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold [1]. Silver - Market performance: Silver rose to $39 [1]. - Fundamentals: Trump's tariff policies and inventory changes [1]. - Trading strategy: Short - term risk avoidance is recommended for long positions, and there are long - term short - selling opportunities [1]. Base Metals Aluminum - Market performance: The electrolytic aluminum contract rose 0.29% to 20,840 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: High - load production on the supply side and a slight increase in terminal demand [2]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. Alumina - Market performance: The alumina contract rose 3.75% to 3386 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Stable production on the supply side and high - load consumption on the demand side [2]. - Trading strategy: Pay close attention to policy implementation and other factors [2]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The main contract rose 2.71% to 72,880 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to improve marginally [3]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main contract rose 80 yuan/ton to 3302 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: Supply and demand are balanced, and the valuation is slightly high [4]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, and close long positions at appropriate times [4]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The main contract rose 9.5 yuan/ton to 818.5 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: Supply and demand are marginally neutral to strong, and the valuation is neutral [4]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, and close long positions at appropriate times, and consider a long position in the 2605 volume - to - ore ratio [4]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The main contract rose 103 yuan/ton to 1135.5 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and the futures valuation is high [4]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, and close long positions at appropriate times [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: CBOT soybeans fell slightly [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand has uncertainties [6]. - Trading strategy: There is no real driving force, and attention should be paid to weather and policies [6]. Corn - Market performance: The 2509 contract fluctuated after rising [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply and demand are tightening, and there are both positive and negative factors [6]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate [6]. Sugar - Market performance: The 09 contract fell 0.1% to 5819 yuan/ton [6]. - Fundamentals: The domestic and foreign markets rebounded jointly, and there are profit margins [6]. - Trading strategy: Go short in the futures market [6]. Cotton - Market performance: The price stopped falling and rebounded [6]. - Fundamentals: There are differences in the growth situation at home and abroad, and the inventory is decreasing [6]. - Trading strategy: Go long at low prices [6]. Palm Oil - Market performance: It continued to be strong [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply is weakening, and demand has support [6]. - Trading strategy: It is short - term strong, and attention should be paid to production and policies [6]. Eggs - Market performance: The 2509 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price rose [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply is decreasing, and demand is increasing seasonally, but the cold - storage egg inventory is high [6]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be strong [6]. Pork - Market performance: The 2509 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price fell [7]. - Fundamentals: Consumption is weakening seasonally, and supply is increasing [7]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [7]. Apples - Market performance: The main contract rose 0.08% to 7929 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: The price of early - maturing apples has risen, and the final output is uncertain [7]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: The main contract continued to rise slightly [7]. - Fundamentals: Supply is increasing, and demand is improving [7]. - Trading strategy: It is short - term strong and long - term supply is expected to be loose [7]. PVC - Market performance: The V09 contract rose 1.2% [7]. - Fundamentals: Affected by coal policies, supply is expected to increase, and inventory is accumulating [7]. - Trading strategy: Close short positions and wait and see [7]. PTA - Market performance: The PX price is 843 dollars/ton, and the PTA spot price is 4785 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: PX supply is medium, PTA supply is increasing, and polyester demand is weak [7]. - Trading strategy: Go long on PX and short - sell PTA processing fees [7]. Glass - Market performance: The fg09 contract rose 2.8% [8]. - Fundamentals: Affected by coal policies, supply is expected to increase, and inventory is decreasing [8]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [8]. PP - Market performance: The main contract continued to rebound slightly [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply is increasing, and demand is differentiated [8]. - Trading strategy: It is short - term volatile and long - term supply is expected to be loose [8]. MEG - Market performance: The spot price is 4490 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply is high, and demand is weak [8]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to be weak, and short - sell at high prices [8]. Crude Oil - Market performance: The price fell slightly [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply is increasing, and demand has short - term support but long - term risks [8]. - Trading strategy: Go short at high prices [8]. EB - Market performance: The main contract fluctuated slightly [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply is expected to increase, and demand has uncertainties [9]. - Trading strategy: It is short - term volatile and long - term supply is expected to be loose [9]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The sa09 contract rose 3.8% [9]. - Fundamentals: Affected by policies, supply may decrease, and demand is weak [9]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The gold market is supported by factors such as the Fed's potential rate cut and geopolitical uncertainties, with a recommendation to go long on gold. The silver market shows short - term strength but offers long - term shorting opportunities [1]. - The basic metals market has different trends. Aluminum and alumina are expected to be volatile and strong, zinc is short - term neutral and long - term bearish, lead is range - bound, industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are recommended to go long under certain conditions, and polysilicon has intensified short - term market competition [1][2][3]. - The black industry shows a balanced supply - demand situation for steel but with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to be cautious in trading, with some opportunities for short - term chasing [4]. - The agricultural product market has various trends. Soybean meal follows international costs, corn is expected to be volatile, sugar is recommended to go short, cotton is recommended to go long at low prices, palm oil is short - term strong, eggs are expected to be strong, and pork is bearish in the medium - term [5][6]. - The energy and chemical market has different outlooks. LLDPE is short - term strong and long - term bearish, PVC and glass are recommended to wait and see, PTA is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA, rubber is short - term strong, PP is short - term volatile and long - term bearish, MEG is expected to be weak, and crude oil is recommended to go short at high prices [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: On Monday, precious metal prices strengthened, with COMEX gold up over 1% and silver up over 2% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The Fed may cut rates in July, and there are various geopolitical and economic events in the US. Gold and silver inventories in different regions have different changes [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on gold; short - term avoid risks in silver and long - term look for shorting opportunities [1]. Basic Metals Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The electrolytic aluminum contract rose 1.61% to 20,840 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: High - load production on the supply side and a slight increase in demand during the off - season [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect prices to be volatile and strong, and recommend going long at low prices [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The alumina contract rose 8.08% to 3,386 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Stable production on the supply side and high - load production of electrolytic aluminum on the demand side [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Pay attention to policy and supply - demand changes, and the market is in a multi - empty game [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The zinc contract rose 2.62% to 22,885 yuan/ton [2][3]. - **Fundamentals**: Increased supply and weak demand in the off - season, with a risk of a short squeeze [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term neutral and long - term bearish [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The lead contract rose 0.83% to 16,960 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Low supply and demand, with a risk of a short squeeze [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Range - bound trading [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The contract rose 565 yuan/ton to 9,260 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Slight increase in supply and stable demand in different sectors [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long at low prices, paying attention to production resumption and policies [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The contract rose 2.53% to 71,280 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Increased supply and demand, with high inventory [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term prices are likely to rise, and go long if high - capacity mines cut production [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The contract rose 1,810 yuan/ton to 45,660 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Slight increase in supply, inventory reduction, and weak demand [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Partially take profit on long positions due to intensified market competition [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The rebar contract rose 25 yuan/ton to 3,222 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Balanced supply - demand with structural differentiation and slightly high valuation [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Be cautious, with opportunities for short - term chasing and consider exiting arbitrage [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore contract rose 9 yuan/ton to 809 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Decreased supply and increased demand, with neutral valuation [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Be cautious, with opportunities for short - term chasing and long - position layout [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal contract rose 68.5 yuan/ton to 1,032.5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Loose supply - demand with improving fundamentals and high valuation [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Be cautious and consider exiting long positions [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans fell overnight [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Abundant supply and variable demand [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Follow international costs and pay attention to weather and policies [5]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn contract continued to rebound [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Tightening supply - demand, affected by substitutes [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expected to be volatile [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The sugar contract fell 0.15% to 5,831 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Import pressure and weakening market sentiment [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: US cotton prices fell overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Improving US cotton quality and changing domestic inventory [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long at low prices and use range - bound strategies [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Weakening supply and demand [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term strong, with attention to production and policies [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg contract continued to rebound [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Reduced supply and increased demand [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expected to be strong [6]. Pork - **Market Performance**: The pork contract rose [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Weakening demand and increasing supply [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Limited upside potential [6]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The apple contract rose 0.51% to 7,923 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Uncertain production and weak consumption [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE contract rose slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Increasing domestic supply and improving demand [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term strong and long - term bearish [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The PVC contract rose 1.7% to 5,163 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Policy - driven with unchanged supply - demand and increasing inventory [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Exit short positions and wait for policy implementation [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PX price was 842 dollars/ton, and PTA was 4,785 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Moderate PX supply, increasing PTA supply, and weak polyester demand [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on PX and short on PTA [7]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: The rubber contract rose 0.37% to 14,895 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Stable raw material prices and inventory reduction [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term strong, with attention to pressure levels [8]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The glass contract rose 2.9% to 1,178 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Policy - driven with weak fundamentals and inventory reduction [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see for policy implementation [8]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP contract rebounded slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Increasing supply and differentiated demand [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term volatile and long - term bearish [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: MEG price was 4,470 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: High supply, low inventory, and weak polyester demand [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expected to be weak, short at high prices [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices fell slightly and were in a narrow - range oscillation [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Increasing supply and changing demand, with inventory accumulation [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short at high prices, paying attention to supply - demand changes [9]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The styrene contract rebounded slightly [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Slight inventory changes and weak demand [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term volatile and long - term bearish [9]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The soda ash contract rose 2.7% to 1,308 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Policy - driven with high inventory and weak downstream demand [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see [9].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - **Stock Index**: On July 21, the four major A-share stock indexes were all strong. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.72% to close at 3,559.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.86% to close at 11,007.49 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.87% to close at 2,296.88 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.04% to close at 1,007.89 points. Market turnover was 1.7271 trillion yuan, an increase of 133.8 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, building materials (+6.06%), building decoration (+3.79%), and steel (+3.44%) led the gains; banks (-0.77%), composites (-0.34%), and computers (-0.31%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IC>IM>IF>IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4,002/121/1,291 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -9, -127, -46, and 18.2 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +12.6, -0.6, -8.2, and -3.8 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Stock Index Futures Basis**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 149.06, 105.71, 20.81, and 1.04 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -12.52%, -9.53%, -2.83%, and -0.21% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 23%, 16%, 32%, and 45% respectively [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 21, the yields of treasury bond futures rose across the board. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.363, up 1.19 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.513, up 1.69 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.613, up 1.21 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 1.958, up 2.78 bps [2]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of +1.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.023, and an IRR of 1.63%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, with a yield change of +1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.031, and an IRR of 1.68%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250007.IB, with a yield change of +1.8 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.041, and an IRR of 1.75%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +2.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.033, and an IRR of 1.33% [2]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 170.7 billion yuan and withdrew 226.2 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan [2]. 2. Trading Strategies - **Stock Index Futures**: In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies for medium - and long - term investors [2]. 3. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the real - estate market has recently contracted in terms of prosperity, while the manufacturing industry has seen a recovery in prosperity as the industrial added value in June exceeded the same period [11]. 4. Tables and Figures - **Table 1**: Shows the performance of stock index futures and spot markets, including details such as code, name, price change percentage, current price, price change, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily position change, settlement price, basis, and annualized basis yield [6]. - **Table 2**: Displays the performance of treasury bond futures and spot markets, including information on code, name, price change percentage, current price, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily position change, settlement price, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rate [7]. - **Table 3**: Presents the changes in the short - end funding rate market, including SHIBOR overnight, DR001, SHIBOR one - week, and DR007 rates compared with yesterday, one week ago, and one month ago [11]. - **Figure 1**: Illustrates the term structure of treasury bond spot prices [8][9]. - **Figure 2**: Tracks domestic medium - level economic data, based on the comparison of medium - level data in each module with the same period in the past five years (year - on - year month - on - month), scored according to the degree of change [12][13].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On July 18, the four major A-share stock indices were all strong. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.5% to close at 3534.48 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37% to close at 10913.84 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.34% to close at 2277.15 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.19% to close at 1007.53 points. Market turnover was 1593.3 billion yuan, an increase of 33 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, non-ferrous metals (+2.1%), basic chemicals (+1.36%), and steel (+1.34%) led the gains; media (-0.98%), electronics (-0.49%), and light manufacturing (-0.41%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2,600/247/2,567 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -13.5 billion, -12.1 billion, 3.6 billion, and 22 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -25.9 billion, -6.7 billion, +13.1 billion, and +19.5 billion yuan respectively [2]. 2. Stock Index Futures - Basis: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 62.07, 45.61, 4.55, and -3.68 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were -11.28%, -8.9%, -1.33%, and 1.59% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 29%, 18%, 45%, and 66% respectively [3]. - Trading strategy: In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - Spot bonds: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of -1 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.008, and an IRR of 1.56%; for the 5 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, with a yield change of +0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.01, and an IRR of 1.57%; for the 10 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250007.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.041, and an IRR of 1.26%; for the 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.031, and an IRR of 1.36% [4]. - Funding situation: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 187.5 billion yuan and withdrew 84.7 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium to long term [4]. 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the real estate market has recently contracted in terms of prosperity, while the manufacturing sector has seen a recovery in prosperity as industrial added value in June exceeded the same period [11].

2025年07月21日 星期一 商品期货早班车 单击此处输入文字。 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：上周贵金属价格继续高位震荡，白银录得新高。 | | 金 | 基本面：贝森特访日后释放乐观信号，会见石破茂后表示美日可以达成不错的贸易协议；继特朗普宣布 8 月 1 | | 属 | 日将生效的铜关税后，特朗普团队讨论对木材、芯片、关键矿产和药品发布征关税的公告。这些产品都是美 | | | 国商务部在进行的 232 调查对象；据报道特朗普推动对所有欧盟商品加征 15%-20%的最低关税。国内黄金 | | | ETF 前一交易日流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1154 吨，增加 11 吨；上期所黄金库存 28 吨，继续增加；伦敦 6 | | | 月黄金库存 8774 吨；上期所白银库存 1211 吨，减少 6 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1326 吨，增加 7 吨， | | | COMEX 白银库存 15448 吨，减少 16 吨；伦敦 6 月白银库存增加 421 吨至 23788 吨；印度 6 月白银进口约 | | | 200 吨左右。全球最大白银 etf-- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and policy changes. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific fundamentals and market performances [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum 2508 contract closed at 20475 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing with a 2.6 - ton increase in weekly operating capacity, while demand is weak in the traditional off - season with a 0.1% drop in weekly aluminum product operating rate. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Alumina**: The alumina 2509 contract closed at 3111 yuan/ton, down 0.71% from the previous trading day. The supply is stable with no change in weekly operating capacity, and demand is stable as electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 09 contract closed at 8745 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The total number of open furnaces increased by 3, with an overall open - furnace rate of 29.75%. Social inventory decreased slightly last week. The price is expected to fluctuate, mainly affected by the opening of furnaces in Xinjiang and the price trend of polysilicon [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main LC2509 contract closed at 67960 yuan/ton, up 2.47%. The supply in July is expected to be 81150 physical tons, a 3.92% increase month - on - month. The demand is expected to improve marginally but difficult to drive inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate and rebound in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. Polysilicon - The main 09 contract closed at 45300 yuan/ton, breaking the record high. The price increase is related to the "anti - involution" and the expectation of supply - side reform. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand in the third - quarter photovoltaic installation market is pessimistic. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the leading enterprises' shipping prices and the acceptance of downstream customers [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2510 contract closed at 3166 yuan/ton. The building material supply and demand are both weak, but the inventory pressure is small due to low production. The overall steel supply - demand is balanced. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to chase long the rebar 2601 contract [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2509 contract closed at 797.5 yuan/ton. The iron ore supply - demand is marginally neutral, and the subsequent inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to chase long the iron ore 2601 contract [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2509 contract closed at 938 yuan/ton. The overall supply - demand is still relatively loose but improving. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to chase long the coking coal 2601 contract [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean rose, driven by US soybean oil. The supply is loose both in the near - term and long - term, and the demand depends on tariff policies. The domestic soybean price follows the international cost side. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather in the production area and tariff policies [4]. - **Corn**: The corn 2509 contract rebounded from the bottom. The annual supply - demand is tightening marginally, but the price is affected by substitutes and import grain auctions. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5825 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the future. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [4]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fluctuated upward. The international cotton export sales decreased, while the domestic cotton price is affected by inventory changes in Xinjiang. It is recommended to buy on dips and use a range - trading strategy [4]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil price continued to rise overnight. The supply in the production area is weakening marginally, and the demand has support. It is expected to be strong in the short - term and tight annually [4]. - **Egg**: The egg 2508 contract fluctuated narrowly. The supply is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate due to cost support [4]. - **Live Pig**: The live pig 2509 contract opened low and closed high. The consumption is seasonally weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [4]. - **Apple**: The main contract closed at 7835 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The new - season early - maturing apple price has increased, but the current consumption is light. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The V09 contract closed at 4956 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase, and the social inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to gradually close short positions and wait and see [6]. - **PTA**: The PX CFR China price is 833 US dollars/ton, and the PTA East China spot price is 4730 yuan/ton. The PX supply - demand is in a de - stocking state, and the PTA supply - demand is tending to be loose. It is recommended to over - allocate PX and look for positive arbitrage opportunities in PTA in the short - term [6]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract closed at 1093 yuan/ton, up 2%. The supply is expected to increase in the third quarter, and the inventory is decreasing. The valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see and track the implementation of production - cut policies [6]. - **MEG**: The East China spot price is 4437 yuan/ton. The supply is at a medium - high level, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to short at high prices [7]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price rose due to production reduction in Iraq and an unexpected decline in EIA crude oil inventory. The long - term supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices and pay attention to inventory accumulation [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa09 contract closed at 1226 yuan/ton, up 1.1%. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating at a high level. The demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is weakening. It is recommended to short at high prices [7].