金融研究 2025年6月6日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：6 月 5 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.23%，报收 3384.1 点；深成指 上涨 0.58%，报收 10203.5 点；创业板指上涨 1.17%，报收 2048.62 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.04%， 报收 996.41 点。市场成交 13,170 亿元，较前日增加 1,395 亿元。行业板块方面，通信(+2.62%)， 电子(+2.31%)，计算机(+2.12%)涨幅居前；美容护理(-3.07%)，纺织服饰(-1.81%)，农林牧渔(-1.79%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,675/197/2,540。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 38、-41、-26、30 亿元，分别变动+14、-15、+19、-18 亿 元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 158.21、118.37、64.36 与 49.13 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-20.04%、-16.03%、-12.97%与-14.26%，三年期 ...

Report Title - Private Equity Weekly Performance is Good, Remain Cautious about Small-cap Exposure and Basis Convergence Risk in the Future (May 26, 2025 - May 30, 2025) - Weekly Tracking Report on Private Equity Strategies of China Merchants Futures [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - As of May 30, 2025, three types of private equity index enhancement strategies had positive returns this week. Approximately 50% of stock neutral strategy funds had positive returns, with the 75th percentile of weekly returns at 0.13%. The median return of two types of cycle-labeled dimension neutral strategies was positive, and the performance of the partial holding Alpha neutral strategy was relatively good, with a median return of 0.15%. Approximately 75% of option strategy pool funds had positive returns, and the partial selling option strategy had relatively good returns, with the 75th percentile return at 0.58%. [5] - From the perspective of the monthly performance of sub - strategies, the top three sub - strategies were CSI 1000 Index Enhancement (+4.35%), Quantitative Stock Selection (+3.65%), and CSI 500 Index Enhancement (+3.21%); the bottom three were Full Replication Neutral T (+0.23%), Partial Arbitrage (+0.40%), and 300 Neutral (+0.58%). [5] - As of May 30, 2025, most private equity index enhancement strategies rose this week. Specifically, CSI 1000 Index Enhancement rose 1.15%, Quantitative Stock Selection rose 0.68%, CSI 500 Index Enhancement rose 0.67%, and SSE 500 Index Enhancement fell 0.64%. From the perspective of the track - labeled dimension index enhancement strategies, the excess returns of the four types of index enhancement strategies were all positive, with Quantitative Stock Selection at 0.77%, CSI 1000 Index Enhancement at 0.55%, SSE 300 Index Enhancement at 0.48%, and CSI 500 Index Enhancement at 0.35%. [5] - The component stock monitoring model shows that small and micro - cap stocks had the highest investment return rate in the past three months, and one should remain cautious about the retracement risk of small and micro - cap stocks in the future. [5] Summary by Directory 01 Private Equity Review - **Private Equity Index Enhancement Fund Performance Tracking** - Three types of private equity index enhancement strategies had positive returns this week. Specifically, CSI 1000 Index Enhancement rose 1.15%, Quantitative Stock Selection rose 0.68%, CSI 500 Index Enhancement rose 0.67%, and SSE 300 Index Enhancement fell 0.64%. [12] - From the perspective of the track - labeled dimension index enhancement strategies, the excess returns of the four types of index enhancement strategies were all positive, with Quantitative Stock Selection at 0.77%, CSI 1000 Index Enhancement at 0.55%, SSE 300 Index Enhancement at 0.48%, and CSI 500 Index Enhancement at 0.35%. [19] - From the perspective of the cycle - labeled dimension index enhancement strategies, the median excess returns of the four types of cycle - labeled dimension index enhancement strategies were all positive. Specifically, the partial holding type index enhancement excess median was 0.45%, the holding type index enhancement excess median was 0.43%, the trading type index enhancement excess median was 0.31%, and the partial trading type index enhancement excess median was 0.18%. [25] - **Track - Labeled Dimension Neutral Strategy Tracking** - Approximately 50% of the stock neutral strategy funds had positive returns this week, with the 75th percentile of weekly returns at 0.13%. After deducting the basis impact, the median weekly return of the 300 neutral strategy was 0.27%, the median weekly return of the 500 neutral strategy was 0.60%, and the median weekly return of the 1000 neutral strategy was 0.23%. [28] - **Cycle - Labeled Dimension Neutral Strategy Tracking** - The median returns of two types of cycle - labeled dimension neutral strategies were positive. Specifically, the partial holding Alpha neutral median was 0.15%, the holding Alpha neutral median was 0.05%, the partial trading Alpha neutral median was -0.01%, and the trading Alpha neutral median was -0.05%. [32] - **Track - Labeled Dimension Option Strategy Tracking** - Approximately 75% of the option strategy pool funds had positive returns this week. From the 75th percentile, the fund pool's weekly return was 0.37%, and the one - year return was 13.17%. From the track - labeled dimension, the partial selling option strategy had relatively good returns, with the 75th percentile return at 0.58%. [36] 02 Performance Attribution - **Private Equity Index Enhancement Strategy Component Stock Disassembly** - The small and micro - cap exposure is large, and one should remain cautious about the retracement risk of small and micro - cap stocks in the future. [38] - The investment cost - effectiveness of CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and other (including small and micro - cap) stocks is relatively high. Specifically, the return rate of unit SSE 300 component stocks in the past three months was -1.28%, the return of unit CSI 500 component stocks was -3.22%, the return of unit CSI 1000 component stocks was -3.90%, and the return of unit other (including small and micro - cap) stocks was over 28%. [46] 03 Risk Monitoring - **Private Equity Index Enhancement Risk Monitoring - SSE 300 Index Enhancement Fund** - As of May 30, 2025, the three factors with the largest excess exposure of the SSE 300 index enhancement fund were the leverage factor, the mid - cap factor, and the growth factor, which were -1.28, 1.15, and -0.61 respectively. Generally speaking, the SSE 300 index enhancement fund has relatively large excess risk exposure in the leverage factor and the mid - cap factor. [51] - **Private Equity Index Enhancement Risk Monitoring - CSI 500 Index Enhancement Fund** - As of May 30, 2025, the three factors with the largest excess exposure of the CSI 500 index enhancement fund were the residual volatility factor, the BETA factor, and the momentum factor, which were 0.65, -0.63, and 0.55 respectively. Generally speaking, the excess risk exposure of the CSI 500 index enhancement fund is not large. [60] - **Private Equity Index Enhancement Risk Monitoring - CSI 1000 Index Enhancement Fund** - As of May 30, 2025, the three factors with the largest excess exposure of the CSI 1000 index enhancement fund were the BETA factor, the residual volatility factor, and the momentum factor, which were -0.59, 0.54, and 0.48 respectively. Generally speaking, the excess risk exposure of the CSI 1000 index enhancement fund is not large. [69]

招商期货有限公司 市场表现：6 月 4 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.42%，报收 3376.2 点；深成指 上涨 0.87%，报收 10144.58 点；创业板指上涨 1.11%，报收 2024.93 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.45%， 报收 986.11 点。市场成交 11,774 亿元，较前日增加 136 亿元。行业板块方面，美容护理(+2.63%)， 综合(+2.53%)，纺织服饰(+2.41%)涨幅居前；交通运输(-0.58%)，国防军工(-0.24%)，公用事业 (-0.12%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,964/211/1,237。沪深两 市，机构、主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 23、-26、-45、48 亿元，分别变动+49、+40、-27、 -62 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 160.37、120.01、65.54 与 47.42 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-19.84%、-15.84%、-12.83%与-13.35%，三年期历史分位数分别为 4%、5%、1%及 5%。 期- ...

2025年06月05日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏强运行。基本面：美国 ADP 新增就业不及预期，特朗普喊话鲍威尔降息，称要取 | | | | | | | | | 消美国债务上限。美元走弱，金属整体获得一定支撑。供给端铜矿紧张格局延续，需求端华东华南平水铜现 | | | | | | | | 铜 | 80 120 1450 货升水 元和贴水 元成交，华南现货走弱明显。精废价差 元附近。交易策略：在美元偏弱情况下， | | | | | | | | | 以震荡偏强运行对待。风险提示：全球流动性冲击，全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2507 合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.08%，收于 20075 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 410 元/吨， | | | | | | | | | LME 价格 2484 美元/吨。 | | | | | | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - **Stock Market**: On June 3rd, the four major A-share stock indices all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.43% to 3361.98 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.16% to 10057.17 points, the ChiNext Index up 0.48% to 2002.7 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index up 0.48% to 981.71 points. Market turnover was 1.1638 trillion yuan, a decrease of 400 million yuan from the previous day. The sectors of beauty care (+3.86%), textile and apparel (+2.53%), and comprehensive (+2.02%) led the gains, while household appliances (-2.1%), steel (-1.37%), and coal (-0.84%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IM > IC > IH > IF, and the numbers of rising, flat, and falling stocks were 3,390, 240, and 1,782 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were -2.5 billion, -6.6 billion, -1.8 billion, and 11 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +16.8 billion, +9.3 billion, -11.5 billion, and -14.6 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 160.24, 127.04, 64.41, and 49.3 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -19.41%, -16.4%, -12.3%, and -13.49% respectively, with the three - year historical quantiles being 4%, 5%, 1%, and 5% respectively. The futures - spot price difference remained at a relatively low level [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On June 3rd, the yields of treasury bond futures showed a pattern of short - term rising and long - term falling. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.408, up 3.06 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.512, up 1.08 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.625, down 3.19 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 1.982, down 0.18 bps [3]. 2. Trading Strategies - **Stock Index Futures**: In the short term, due to the deep discount of small - cap stock indices, which is presumably the result of the expansion of neutral product scale since this year, and considering that the proportion of short positions in neutral products may still be high as the bond bull market has not restarted, the deep discount may continue, leading to market fluctuations. A short - cycle band strategy is recommended. In the long - term, the report maintains the view of being bullish on the economy. It is recommended to allocate IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips. For near - month contracts, there is a risk of a decline in micro - cap stocks, which may drag down the IC and IM indices, so caution is advised [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The current situation of the spot bond market is one of strong supply and weak demand, but this pattern is expected to change. Firstly, the maturity scale of government bonds in June will increase, and the net supply rhythm of government bonds may become more stable. Secondly, there is a possibility of a reduction in the long - term liability cost of insurance in July. Thirdly, the domestic market risk preference has returned to a defensive style, which may increase the demand for bond market allocation. On the futures side, the CTD bond price of near - month contracts is low, and combined with the relatively high IRR level recently, short - sellers have a strong willingness to deliver, putting pressure on the prices of near - month contracts and leading to a premium in far - month contracts. The long - end long - position power is strong, possibly betting on a further decline in future policy interest rates. It is recommended to be short - term long and long - term short, buying T and TL on dips in the short - term and hedging T and TL on rallies in the long - term [4]. 3. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that in May, the prosperity of imports and exports and social activities declined, while the prosperity of the real estate market increased [11]. 4. Tables and Figures - **Table 1**: Presents the performance of stock index futures and spot markets, including details such as code, name, percentage change, current price, trading volume, open interest, etc. [6] - **Table 2**: Displays the performance of treasury bond futures and spot markets, with information on code, name, percentage change, current price, trading volume, open interest, etc. [7] - **Table 3**: Shows the changes in short - term capital interest rates, including overnight SHIBOR, DR001, one - week SHIBOR, and DR007 [11] - **Figure 1**: Depicts the term structure of treasury bond spot prices [8][9] - **Figure 2**: Tracks domestic meso - level data, based on the comparison of meso - level data in each module with the same period in the past five years, and scores the changes in prosperity [12][13][14]

黄金市场 2025年06月04日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 【市场表现】 | | 金 | 隔夜贵金属价格震荡。 | | 属 | 【消息面】 | | | 特朗普宣布 6 月 4 日钢铝关税提高至 50%，进口自英国钢铝关税仍维持在 25%；特朗普政府发出紧急信函要 | | | 求各国在周三前提交贸易谈判最佳方案。美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克仍然认为，FOMC 2025 存在 年降 | | | 息一次的机会；芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比甚至表示，白宫贸易政策可能导致美国出现"滞胀"。 | | | 【经济数据方面】 | | | OECD 预计美国经济仅增长 1.6%，较此前预期的 2.2%大幅下调。OECD 今年第二次下调全球经济预测，称 | | | 特朗普关税风暴下美国首当其冲；美国 4 月 JOLTS 职位空缺 739.1 万人，高于预期和上修后的前值；欧元区 | | | 5 月调和 CPI 同比增长初值 1.9%，八个月来首次低于欧洲央行 2%的目标，支持欧央行进一步降息。 | | | 【库存数据方面】 | | | 国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日重 ...

招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 【市场表现】 | | 金 | 昨日贵金属市场大幅走强，白银涨幅超过 5%。 | | 属 | 【消息面】 | | | 特朗普 5 月 30 日上周五称，6 月 4 日起，将把美国进口钢铁和铝的关税从目前的 25%上调至 50%；欧盟表 | | | 示如果双方无法达成一致，最迟 7 月中，可能打击超千亿美元进口美国产品的欧盟反制措施就要生效；美国 | | | 称中方违反中美日内瓦经贸会谈共识；周末俄乌冲突加剧，俄罗斯重要战略武器遭到攻击。 | | | 【经济数据方面】 | | | 美国 5 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 指数为 48.5，连续三个月萎缩，进口指标创十六年新低，不及预期和前值；订单量 | | | 连续第四个月萎缩，进口指数创 2009 年以来新低，出口指数创五年新低，物价支付指数仍高企。；欧元区 5 | | | PMI 月制造业 为 49.4，萎缩放缓，产出连续第三个月增长，显示复苏迹象。 | | | 【库存数据方面】 | | | 国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日小幅流出，COMEX 黄金库存 1206 吨，较前一交易日减少 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips. Be cautious with near - month contracts due to the potential risk of micro - cap stocks dragging down IC and IM indices [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Suggest short - term long and long - term short strategies. Short - term, buy T and TL on dips; long - term, hedge T and TL on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance (May 30)**: The four major A - share stock indices回调. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.47% to 3347.49 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.85% to 10040.63 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.96% to 1993.19 points, and the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index fell 0.94% to 977.03 points. Market turnover was 1.1642 trillion yuan, a decrease of 49.2 billion yuan from the previous day. Industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+1.2%), banks (+0.64%), and pharmaceutical biology (+0.37%) led the gains, while industries such as automobiles (-1.91%), comprehensive (-1.87%), and electronics (-1.85%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1116/134/4160 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net capital inflows were - 19.3 billion, - 15.9 billion, 9.7 billion, and 25.6 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 31.5 billion, - 11.2 billion, +25.6 billion, and +17.1 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 149.36, 111.67, 54.63, and 45.5 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 17.7%, - 14.07%, - 10.16%, and - 12.13% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 7%, 8%, 5%, and 7% respectively. The futures - spot price difference remained at a low level [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The deep discount of small - cap stock indices recently may be due to the expansion of neutral product scale this year. Since the bond bull market has not restarted, the proportion of neutral short positions may still be high, so the deep discount may continue. It is recommended to allocate IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips and be cautious with near - month contracts [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance (May 30)**: The yields of most treasury bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.379, a decrease of 3.19 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.497, a decrease of 3.13 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.657, an increase of 0.3 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 1.984, a decrease of 3.1 bps [2]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of - 2.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.056, and an IRR of 1.85%; for the 5 - year, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, with a yield change of - 3.25 bps, a net basis of - 0.054, and an IRR of 1.84%; for the 10 - year, the CTD bond is 220010.IB, with a yield change of - 2 bps, a net basis of - 0.029, and an IRR of 1.76%; for the 30 - year, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 2.25 bps, a net basis of 0.031, and an IRR of 1.58% [2]. - **Funding Situation**: The central bank's currency injection was 291.1 billion yuan, and currency withdrawal was 142.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 148.6 billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The current situation of strong supply and weak demand in the cash bond market is expected to change. In the futures market, the long - end bullish force is strong. It is recommended to take short - term long and long - term short positions, buy T and TL on dips in the short - term, and hedge T and TL on rallies in the long - term [2]. Economic Data High - frequency data shows that in May, the prosperity of imports and exports and social activities declined, while the real estate market's prosperity increased [10].

金融研究 2025年5月30日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：5 月 29 日，A 股四大股指全线反弹，其中上证指数上涨 0.7%，报收 3363.45 点；深成指 上涨 1.24%，报收 10127.2 点；创业板指上涨 1.37%，报收 2012.55 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.61%， 报收 986.3 点。市场成交 12,134 亿元，较前日增加 1,795 亿元。行业板块方面，计算机(+3.62%)， 医药生物(+2.37%)，电子(+2.1%)涨幅居前；美容护理(-0.59%)，银行(-0.24%)，食品饮料(-0.23%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,468/109/831。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 121、-47、-160、85 亿元，分别变动+179、+81、-180、-79 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 147.78、121.11、61.1 与 46.89 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-16.85%、-14.7%、-11%与-12.1%，三年期历史分位数 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market for various commodities shows different trends and characteristics, with each commodity facing unique supply - demand situations, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on these fundamentals [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: The price is in a range - bound oscillation. The Trump administration's tariff appeal, a weaker dollar, and low risk appetite put pressure on base metals. Social inventory decreased weekly, and downstream stocking was limited. It is expected to continue range - bound in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract price rose 0.52% to 20,185 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level with increasing operating capacity, while demand is slowing with a slight decline in the aluminum product start - up rate. The continuous inventory reduction supports the price, and it is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract price fell 0.90% to 2,964 yuan/ton. Supply is increasing due to the resumption of some plants and new capacity release, and demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is also rising. The expected supply surplus suppresses futures prices, but there is uncertainty in Guinea's mining policy [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2506 contract price rose 1.24% to 22,780 yuan/ton. Social inventory decreased. The supply is relatively loose with high raw material inventory in smelters and the resumption of some smelters. Apparent consumption shows resilience. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Lead**: The 2506 contract price rose 0.09% to 16,715 yuan/ton. The supply of recycled lead increases with new capacity and production resumption, while demand from lead - acid battery markets is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a small range [1][2]. - **Tin**: The price continued to weaken. The Trump administration's tariff appeal and concerns about increased supply from Myanmar's resumption of production led to a bearish market. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [2]. Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: The price hit a new low. Supply did not contract significantly, and there was a high inventory. Demand from the polysilicon industry may decline in May. The price is expected to oscillate between 7,000 - 8,000 yuan, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The 2507 contract price fell 2.52%. Supply increased with a weekly output of 16,580 tons (up 3.03% week - on - week). Demand growth was slow, and inventory was high with a slight decrease. It is recommended to hold short positions or short sell far - month contracts [2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price showed a differentiated performance. Supply was relatively stable in the short term, and inventory decreased but remained high. Demand in the component segment was weak. After the 06 contract delivery month, consider short - selling the 07 contract on rebounds [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract price rose. Steel demand increased marginally, and production decreased. It is recommended to close long positions and consider short - selling for aggressive investors [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract price rose. Port inventory decreased, and iron - water production decreased slightly. Supply was in line with the seasonal pattern, and the medium - term supply surplus remained. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract price fell. Iron - water production decreased slightly, and the first - round price cut was implemented, with a second - round cut proposed. Supply was relatively loose. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybeans rose slightly. Supply is loose in the near - term from South America and the sowing of new US soybeans is accelerating. Demand is seasonally weak. US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the domestic market will follow the international market [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract price rebounded slightly. The supply - demand situation is tightening marginally this year. The price is expected to oscillate and strengthen due to wheat price support [5]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract price fell 0.21%. The global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 season. The domestic market is affected by import and inventory conditions. The price trend follows the raw sugar market and is expected to be bearish [5][6]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fell, and the domestic Zhengzhou cotton price oscillated downward. Yarn prices are weak, and it is recommended to sell on rallies and adopt a range - bound strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The price rebounded. Supply is in the seasonal increase period, and demand for exports has improved. The price is expected to be in a weak but not smooth phase [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract price oscillated narrowly. Supply is high, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract price rebounded after hitting a low. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak due to high temperatures. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse - spread strategy [6]. - **Apples**: The price is at a high - level oscillation. New - season production is affected by extreme weather, and there are concerns about yield. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply is increasing with new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices, and demand is in the off - season for agricultural films. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and be short - sold in the long term [8]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract price fell 0.6%. Supply is expected to increase with new device production and some maintenance. Inventory is decreasing, and demand for exports has slowed. It is recommended to close short positions and sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. - **Rubber**: The 2509 contract price fell 1.35%. Raw material prices are falling, and the market is weak. It is recommended to close short positions gradually and consider an arbitrage strategy [8]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract price fell 3%. Supply is expected to increase, and inventory is high. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. - **PP**: The price oscillated slightly. Supply is increasing with the resumption of maintenance and new device production, and demand is expected to improve. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and be short - sold in the long term [8][9]. - **Crude Oil**: The price fluctuated. The Trump administration's tariff appeal and Kazakhstan's non - reduction stance increased supply concerns. The price is affected by the US - Iran negotiation and OPEC meeting [9]. - **Styrene**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply is expected to increase with inventory accumulation, and demand is affected by downstream profit and inventory. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and be short - sold in the medium term [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract price fell 1.5%. Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is high. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The sh09 contract price rose 1.2%. Some manufacturers' inventory is tight, and the price is rising. It is expected to stop falling and stabilize [9].