Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the stock index futures market, after the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs, stock index fluctuations have significantly increased. There is a possibility of short - term over - decline in the index. Attention should be paid to signs of tariff easing and structural opportunities in the stock market. If the RMB holds the key level, the index may stabilize. Currently, there are gaps above and below the index, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term. Since the valuation of IF is low, it is recommended to make long - term investments at low prices [2]. - For the treasury bond futures market, the short - term capital situation is neutral recently. With the implementation of the US reciprocal tariff executive order, global trade uncertainty has increased significantly. In the short term, the safe - haven property of treasury bonds is more prominent, but the price has reached a high level, so it is expected to move in a volatile manner. In the long run, the sequence of fiscal and monetary policies will determine the direction of long - term prices. If fiscal policies are introduced first and the domestic economy shows a further positive trend, the prices of long - term treasury bonds are expected to gradually decline, and the yield curve will become steeper [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Economic Data High - frequency data shows that the recent infrastructure construction boom has slightly increased [5]. (2) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On April 28, the four major A - share stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2% to 3288.41 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.62% to 9855.2 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.65% to 1934.46 points, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.17% to 1002.83 points. Market trading volume was 1.0768 trillion yuan, a decrease of 60.2 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, public utilities (+0.39%) led the gains, while real estate (-3.66%) led the losses [2]. - The basis and basis annualized yields of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH are 148.06, 127.3, 51.02, and 23.23 points, and - 17.49%, - 15.79%, - 9.37%, and - 6.08% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles are 5%, 3%, 6%, and 16% respectively. The futures - spot price difference has been repaired but remains at a low level [2]. (3) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On April 28, most treasury bond futures rose. The 2 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.01% to 102.32 points, the 5 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.06% to 105.92 points, the 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.03% to 108.84 points, and the 30 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.3% to 120.18 points [3]. - In the open - market operations, the central bank injected 279 billion yuan and withdrew 176 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 103 billion yuan [3]. - The short - term capital interest rate market has changed. For example, SHIBOR overnight is 1.60, DR001 is 1.59, SHIBOR one - week is 1.72, and DR007 is 1.75 [14].

2025年04月29日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 基本金属 招商评论 铝 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2506 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.47%，收于 19935 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 130 元/吨， LME 价格 2427.5 美元/吨。 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅上升。 交易策略：美国关税政策态度缓和，开工环比走强，并维持去库。预计铝价震荡偏强运行。 操作建议：观望或逢低试多。 风险提示：海内外宏观政策变化。 氧 化 铝 市场表现：昨日氧化铝 2509 合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.56%，收于 2862 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 56 元/吨，4 月 23 日，澳大利亚成交 3 万吨，离岸成交价格 347.5 美元/吨，较上一单（4 月 17 日）持平。 基本面：供应方面，氧化铝厂总体运行产能未出现大幅波动。需求方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产 能小幅上升。 交易策略：氧化铝厂压产和检修增多，现货止跌且周度供应短缺转为去库。但几内亚铝土矿发运恢复，进口 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 期货研究 矿价格跌幅扩大，若矿价继续下跌修复 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates a weak - demand situation in the log market, with prices showing an oscillatory downward trend. It suggests a wait - and - see approach due to factors such as the upcoming seasonal demand slump in May, reduced demand for construction materials caused by a decline in new housing starts, and a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern in the market. Attention should be paid to the delivery situation in July [3][5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Basics - Trees can be classified into softwood (coniferous) and hardwood (broad - leaved) trees. Logs are divided into coniferous and broad - leaved logs, and log futures' deliverable items are coniferous logs. The benchmark deliverable item for log futures is radiata pine, and there are also alternative deliverable items with different specifications and corresponding price adjustments [13]. - The delivery area covers 9 major import provinces and cities, with Shandong as the benchmark delivery area. Different regions have different import volumes and corresponding premium or discount settings [14]. 3.2 Supply - In 2025, it is still the peak supply cycle for New Zealand. The import volume of logs has shown certain trends over the years, and different countries and tree species have different import proportions. For example, in 2024, New Zealand accounted for 68.3% of the import volume of coniferous logs [27][26]. 3.3 Demand - As of April 18, the average daily outbound volume of Chinese log ports was 70,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The real - estate market's development investment, new construction area, and other indicators have an impact on log demand. The export of furniture and related data also reflect the demand situation in the market [36][38]. 3.4 Inventory - As of April 18, the port inventory of Chinese coniferous logs was 351 cubic meters, a decrease of 8 cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory of North American logs decreased by 80,000 cubic meters, radiata pine decreased by 50,000 cubic meters, and spruce increased by 50,000 cubic meters [44][47]. 3.5 Price - This week, the spot prices remained stable. As of April 25, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 780 yuan per cubic meter, the same as the previous week, with a basis of - 16 yuan per cubic meter. The prices of other types of logs also remained unchanged compared to the previous week [49].

2025年04月28日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：周五铜价震荡偏弱运行。基本面：贸易战的言语往来还在继续，市场风险偏好较低。国内政治局 | | 铜 | 会议结束，维持底线思维。供应端，铜矿紧张格局延续，TC 继续走弱。需求端，周度精铜制杆开工率走强。 | | | 国内和伦敦结构走强，近月紧张延续。交易策略：假期来临，建议暂时观望。风险提示：全球需求不及预期。 | | | 仅供参考。 | | | 市场表现：周五电解铝 2506 合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.50%，收于 20030 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 210 元/吨， | | | LME 价格 2437.5 美元/吨。 | | 铝 | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅上升。 | | | 交易策略：美国关税政策态度缓和，宏观情绪偏暖，开工环比走强，并维持去库。预计铝价震荡偏强运行。 | | | 操作建议：逢低试多。 | | | 风险提示：海内外宏观政策变化。 | | | 市场表现：周五氧化铝 2509 合约收盘价较前一交 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: April 28, 2025 [1] - Report Issuer: China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. [1] 1. Market Performance Stock Index - On April 25, most of the four major A-share stock indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.07% to 3295.06 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.39% to 9917.06 points, the ChiNext Index up 0.59% to 1947.19 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 0.13% to 1004.57 points. Market turnover was 1.137 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.9 billion yuan from the previous day. [2] - In terms of industry sectors, public utilities (+1.36%), communication (+1.15%), and beauty care (+0.96%) led the gains; real estate (-0.6%), pharmaceutical biology (-0.59%), and coal (-0.59%) led the losses. [2] - In terms of market strength, IC > IM > IF > IH, with the number of rising/flat/falling stocks being 2,831/212/2,366 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had net inflows of 7.8 billion, -4.6 billion, -10 billion, and 6.7 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +22.1 billion, +16.6 billion, -10.7 billion, and -28.1 billion yuan respectively. [2] Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 152.9, 128.58, 47.79, and 20.81 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -17.39%, -15.44%, -8.53%, and -5.31% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 5%, 3%, 8%, and 18% respectively. The futures - spot price difference has been repaired but remains at a low level. [2] Treasury Bond Futures - On April 25, Treasury bond futures showed short - term decline and long - term increase. The 2 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.04% to 102.28 points, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures remained unchanged at 105.94 points, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.06% to 108.77 points, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.28% to 119.68 points. [3] - For the current active contract 2506, the CTD bonds of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures had yield changes of +0.75bps, -0.75bps, -1bps, and -1.75bps respectively, corresponding net bases of -0.037, -0.063, -0.059, and -0.006, and IRRs of 1.89%, 2.06%, 2.04%, and 1.64% respectively. Currently, CTD bonds of each maturity have high IRRs and low bases, indicating potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities. [3] - In the open - market operations, the central bank injected 159.5 billion yuan and withdrew 250.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 91 billion yuan. [3] 2. Trading Strategies Stock Index Futures - After the implementation of the US reciprocal tariffs, the volatility of stock indices has increased significantly. In the short term, the index may be oversold. Attention should be paid to whether there are signs of tariff relaxation and the structural opportunities in the stock market. If the RMB holds the key level, the index may stabilize. Currently, there are gaps above and below the index, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Since the valuation of IF is relatively low, it is recommended to make long - term arrangements on dips. [2] Treasury Bond Futures - In the short term, the short - end funding situation is neutral; there have been frequent changes on the macro side, and the implementation of the US reciprocal tariff executive order has greatly increased global trade uncertainties. In the short term, the safe - haven property of Treasury bonds is more prominent, but the price has reached a high level, and it is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the sequence of fiscal and monetary policies will determine the direction of long - end prices. If fiscal policies are introduced first and the domestic economy shows a further positive trend, it is expected that the prices of long - term Treasury bonds will gradually cool down and the yield curve will become steeper. [3] 3. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent infrastructure boom has slightly increased. [4] 4. Market Data Tables Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table provides detailed information on the performance of various stock index futures contracts (such as IC2505, IF2505, etc.) and spot indices (such as CSI 500, SSE 50), including price, change, trading volume, open interest, basis, and annualized basis yield. [8] Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table shows the performance of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures, including price, change, trading volume, open interest, CTD bond information, yield change, net basis, quantile, and IRR. [10] Short - End Funding Rate Market Changes - The table presents the changes in short - end funding rates such as SHIBOR overnight, DR001, SHIBOR one - week, and DR007 compared with the previous price, one - week ago, and one - month ago. [13]

金融研究 2025年4月25日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：4 月 24 日，A 股四大股指多数下跌，其中上证指数上涨 0.03%，报收 3297.29 点；深成 指下跌 0.58%，报收 9878.32 点；创业板指下跌 0.68%，报收 1935.86 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.92%， 报收 1003.32 点。市场成交 11,389 亿元，较前日减少 1,235 亿元。行业板块方面，美容护理(+1.61%)， 银行(+1.16%)，公用事业(+1.08%)涨幅居前；计算机(-2.36%)，通信(-2.08%)，电子(-1.47%)跌幅居 前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,543/175/3,690。沪深两市，机构、主力、 大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-143、-212、7、348 亿元，分别变动-218、-145、+109、+254 亿 元。 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 153.08、127.88、47.56 与 19.56 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-17.01%、-15.01%、 ...

2025年04月25日 星期五 基本面：供应端，废电瓶价格居高不下，挤压再生铅冶炼利润，冶炼企业生产积极性下降，消费端，铅蓄电 池市场淡季态势加剧，部分下游有意减产或放假，铅锭供需预期呈双降态势。近日铅价探低后回升，部分下 游企业陆续转移社会仓库的铅库存（为前期逢低采购的货源），显性库存减量或提振铅价运行重心略有上移。 交易策略：关税问题的不确定性尚存，铅供需双降，短期预计维持低位盘整。 风险提示：再生废料供应大幅恢复。 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏强运行。基本面：美联储官员讲话提振降息预期，投资者押注降息可以比之前预 | | | | 料的更早到来，美股和美债价格齐涨，美元回落，金属价格得到支撑。供应端，安塔米纳铜矿恢复生产。需 | | | 铜 | 求端，华东华南平水铜现货升水 160 元和 200 元，国内库存持续去化，国内 back 结构走强。国内近端偏紧 | | | | 格局延续。交易策略：后续关注四月数据是否体现贸易战对经济影响以及国内两会政策。建议暂时观望。风 | | | | 险提示：全球需求不 ...

金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：4 月 23 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数下跌 0.1%，报收 3296.36 点；深成指 上涨 0.67%，报收 9935.8 点；创业板指上涨 1.08%，报收 1949.16 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.35%， 报收 1012.65 点。市场成交 12,625 亿元，较前日增加 1,413 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金属(-1.26%)， 计算机(+0.82%)，美容护理(-0.95%)涨幅居前；银行(-0.48%)，食品饮料(-0.36%)，房地产(-1.38%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,185/177/2,046。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 75、-68、-102、95 亿元，分别变动+143、+70、-98、-115 亿元。 2025年4月24日 星期四 金融研究 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 164.58、139.95、52.88 与 21.43 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-17.63%、-15.92%、-8.95%与-5.19%， ...

2025年04月24日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周二贵金属市场分化黄金连跌两日，而白银反弹；消息面，特朗普称或将"大幅降低"对华关税； 特朗普计划豁免汽车制造商部分关税，不过对所有进口整车以及零部件征收的 25%关税仍将维持；在美联储 最新褐皮书中，提及关税方面的不确定性导致几个地区的前景"显著恶化"。经济数据方面，美国 4 月 Markit 制造业 PMI 初值 50.7，意外录得扩张，好于市场原本预期的陷入收缩；服务业和综合 PMI 初值则低于预期， 综合 PMI 初值更是创下 16 个月新低，不过仍均处于扩张区间；欧元区 4 月综合 PMI 几乎停滞，主要受到服 务业收缩的拖累。制造业 PMI 略有回升至 48.7，表现优于预期。库存数据方面，印度 2 月白银进口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存前一交易日减少 10 吨至 912 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存减少 62 吨至 1672 吨。 伦敦 3 月库存减少 335 吨至 22124 吨。近期黄金大跌，而白银反弹，金银比走弱，且白银库存去化，1-3 月 光伏新装机超预期，市场未来展望转好。操作上， ...

金融研究 2025年4月23日 星期三 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 179.71、138.21、50.95 与 19.14 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-18.88%、-15.36%、-8.42%与-4.5%，三年期历史分位数分别为 3%、4%、9%及 20%。期- 现价差有所修复，但仍处于较低水平。 交易策略：美国对等关税落地后，股指波动显著增大。短期指数存在超跌的可能，关注关税有无缓和 迹象，以及股市的结构性机会。人民币守住关键关口，指数或能同步企稳。目前指数上下方均有缺口， 短期偏震荡运行，IF 的估值较低，建议逢低布局。 风险提示：美国双边政策不确定性、财政扩张进度不及预期。 市场表现：4 月 22 日，国债期货全线反弹，其中 2 年期国债期货上涨 0.01%，报收 102.4 点，5 年 期国债期货上涨 0.07%，报收 106.17 点，10 年期国债期货上涨 0.17%，报收 108.97 点，30 年期国 债期货上涨 0.5%，报收 119.92 点。 现券：目前活跃合约为 2506 合约，2 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 240024.IB，收益率变动-0.5bp ...