Report Summary - There is no specific investment rating provided for the industry in the report [2] - The core view of the report is that in the aluminum industry, the overall supply and demand situation is complex. The supply side shows different trends in various links such as bauxite, alumina, and electrolytic aluminum, while the demand side is affected by factors like consumption expectations and seasonal patterns. The market is also influenced by macro - economic factors such as the Fed's interest rate expectations and domestic economic data [8][36] Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The overall fluctuation of power information and the Fed's rate - cut expectation continue to rise, affecting market sentiment. The consumption expectation is not overly pessimistic [8] - **Bearish factors**: The water - discount range has expanded, and inventory has climbed. The US employment data has weakened, and the inventory has risen [8][9] Data Analysis Bauxite - In June 2025, domestic bauxite production was 5.1933 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 173,100 tons but a year - on - year increase of 203,600 tons. The daily output was 173,100 tons, remaining flat month - on - month. In July, the domestic bauxite market was stable, but rainfall in major producing areas restricted production. The procurement price in Shanxi remained stable [18] - In May, over 40 mining enterprises in Guinea had their mining licenses revoked. However, a mining enterprise resumed production, changing the supply from a tight - balance expectation to an oversupply expectation. In the first half of the year, China's bauxite imports increased by 26.086 million tons year - on - year to 103.403 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 33.74%. The port inventory also increased. Although the subsequent imports may decline due to the rainy season, the price is expected to have limited rebound [22] Alumina - As of late July, the national alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from late June. The operating capacity was 94.95 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons from late June, reaching a new high for the year. The operating rate was 84.01%, a 1.5 - percentage - point increase [25] - In June 2025, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 17.7% but a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 1.343 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.7%. In June, the import was 101,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50% and a year - on - year increase of 168.4%. From January to June, the cumulative import was 268,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 77.4%. The net export in June was 69,700 tons, and the cumulative net export from January to June was 1.075 million tons. The import volume may increase in the second half of the year [25] Electrolytic Aluminum - The growth space of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is limited. The capacity utilization rate has exceeded 95%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 21.6948 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. In June, the production was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57% but a month - on - month decrease of 3.23% [29] - As of late July, the national electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.232 million tons, a monthly increase of 25,000 tons. The operating capacity was 44.214 million tons, a monthly increase of 55,000 tons, and the operating rate was 97.8% [29] - Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a profit of over 3,000 yuan per ton in the second half of the year due to limited new capacity, high capacity utilization rate, rigid supply, and low inventory [32] Downstream - In the off - season, downstream demand returns to the rigid - demand rhythm. In July, the average operating rate of aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.7%, a 1.3% month - on - month decline [36] - In the first half of the year, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity exceeded 200GW, but the installation slowed down in June. The new installed capacity in June was 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% [40] - From January to June, the national real estate development investment was 4.6658 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. Other real estate indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and completion area also showed declines [44] Inventory - Last week, LME aluminum inventory rebounded to 469,500 tons. As of the week of August 1, SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 1,737 tons to 117,500 tons [48] - As of August 7, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 549,000 tons, a 2,000 - ton increase from Monday. The inventory is still at a relatively low level, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory has declined to around 43,000 tons, supporting the aluminum price [52] Price and Import - On August 7, the average price of Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum had a discount of - 60 yuan per ton, with the discount range expanding. The LME aluminum 0 - 3 discount was 0.65 dollars per ton, with the discount range narrowing [56] - China's scrap aluminum imports in August may decrease month - on - month due to intense overseas competition, geopolitical conflicts, and positive domestic refined - scrap aluminum price differences [60] Aluminum Alloys - The production capacity operating rate of China's primary aluminum alloy increased compared to last week, with a daily full - cost production cost of 20,400 yuan per ton [64] - The production capacity operating rate of China's recycled aluminum alloy remained the same as last week. The daily full - cost production cost of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 19,950 yuan per ton, and the profit was negative [68] - As of August 8, China's weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy was 48,400 tons, a 2,400 - ton increase from last week. The in - factory inventory was 60,700 tons, a 3,300 - ton decrease from last week [72] 后市研判 - Aluminum alloy futures prices will follow the upward trend of electrolytic aluminum futures [74] - For SHFE aluminum, the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season is approaching, and the consumption expectation is not overly pessimistic. The 60 - day moving average of 20,400 provides support [77]

Report Summary - The retail sales of the national passenger car market in July were 1.826 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 12.4%. The cumulative retail sales since this year were 12.728 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. The market showed a high-base deceleration feature and followed a "low at the beginning, high in the middle, and flat at the end" trend [5]. - The rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased slightly compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, high-precipitation areas were mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar and sporadic areas in southern Cambodia, while precipitation in most other areas was low, which had a greater impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, high-precipitation areas were mainly distributed in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and rainfall in most other areas was at a medium level, which had a weaker impact on rubber tapping [5]. - The global manufacturing purchasing managers' index in July was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The resilience of the global manufacturing industry weakened compared with the previous month and continued to operate weakly [5]. - In July 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 634,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.84% and a year-on-year increase of 3.43%. The cumulative imports from January to July were 4.709 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 20.77% [5]. - The price of natural rubber raw materials remained stable. The supply-demand structure of natural rubber was relatively loose. The price of butadiene, the raw material for butadiene rubber, fluctuated within a narrow range. The inventory of butadiene rubber plants increased slightly. The operating rate of tire enterprises remained stable [5]. - This week, the rubber futures market maintained a volatile trend. As the premium of macro sentiment faded and the internal contradictions in the fundamentals were not obvious, there was no clear trend guidance and the amplitude narrowed. The overall rubber demand had support at the bottom but faced pressure at the top. The cost support of rubber remained stable. The inventory pressure was greater than that of the same period last year but the increase was relatively limited. Overall, the fundamentals of rubber were moderately weak, mainly due to the expectation of increased supply in the future. With overseas tariffs in effect, there was no obvious increase in tire demand. The weak expectation made it difficult for prices to break through the upside, and prices continued to fluctuate within a range. External macro disturbances were likely to widen the price fluctuation range [5]. Multi-Empty Focus Bullish Factors - The "anti-involution" related industry bill in China provided policy guidance for prices [8]. - The inventory structure of all-steel tire enterprises improved and the operating rate was good [8]. Bearish Factors - The inventory reduction of semi-steel tires was not obvious [8]. - Rubber imports increased [8]. - Global manufacturing data was weak [8]. Data Analysis Natural Rubber Raw Material Prices - As of August 7, the price of fresh latex in Thailand was 54 Thai baht per kilogram; the price of cup lump was 48.3 Thai baht per kilogram; the price of latex in Yunnan, China was 14,000 yuan per ton; and the price of latex in Hainan was 13,100 yuan per ton. This week, raw material prices showed little fluctuation. The impact of weather in the main rubber producing areas weakened, and prices remained stable in the short term. Cost support remained stable [9]. Natural Rubber Supply-Demand Structure - As of August 1, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 75,472 tons, continuing the destocking trend since mid-May and increasing by 13,730 tons compared with the same period last year. The spot inventory of general trade was 556,298 tons, showing a slow inventory accumulation trend since the beginning of the year and increasing by 142,534 tons compared with the same period last year. The third-party inventory in China was 1,288,849 tons, fluctuating within a narrow range this year and increasing by 73,929 tons compared with last year. Overall, the rubber supply-demand structure this year was relatively loose [12]. Butadiene Price for Butadiene Rubber - This week, the domestic butadiene market showed a slight upward trend with limited increase. Although there were sporadic plant restarts during the week, there were plant overhauls in Shandong and South China, resulting in a decline in production. At the same time, the restarted plant in Shandong had no spot for external sales, and the commissioning of new产能 in the Northeast was postponed. The supply did not increase as expected, which supported the positive sentiment of merchants. Recently, the operating rates of downstream industries were acceptable, and the phased buying boosted the trading volume. The suppliers of butadiene raised prices, driving the market to rise slightly. However, due to the impact of the downstream product trends, the market increase was limited. As of the week of August 8, 2025, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 406.2857 yuan per ton. The price of butadiene rubber was weak and the corporate profits were under pressure [13]. Butadiene Rubber Inventory - As of the week of August 8, the inventory of butadiene rubber plants was 24,150 tons, an increase of 350 tons from last week. The inventory of traders was 7,290 tons, a decrease of 230 tons from last week. This week, traders reduced inventory slightly while plant inventory increased. The overall inventory structure was loose [15]. Tire Enterprise Operating Rates - As of the week of August 8, the capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a month-on-month increase of 0.80% and a year-on-year increase of 0.73%. The average inventory turnover days of sample enterprises were 39.37 days, a month-on-month decrease of 0.08 days and a year-on-year decrease of 3.66 days. The inventory pressure of all-steel tire enterprises was alleviated and the operating rate remained stable. The capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.27% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.93%. The average inventory turnover days of sample enterprises were 46.45 days, a month-on-month increase of 0.81 days and a year-on-year increase of 9.50 days. The inventory reduction of semi-steel tire enterprises remained difficult, which restricted the enthusiasm of enterprises to start production [17]. Futures Contract Spreads - As of August 7, the spread of the September "RU - NR" contract showed a strong volatile trend; the spread of the September "NR - BR" contract fluctuated within a range [19]. Market Outlook - From the perspective of the downstream tire demand for rubber, the export performance of all-steel tires has been excellent this year, which has reduced the inventory accumulation pressure in factories and boosted the operating rate of enterprises. However, the slow inventory reduction of semi-steel tire enterprises has suppressed the recovery of the operating rate. Overall, rubber demand has support at the bottom but faces pressure at the top. - The impact of weather in the main rubber producing areas has weakened, and raw material prices have remained stable in the short term, providing stable cost support. - As overseas supply recovers, rubber imports continue to increase. The inventory pressure is greater than that of the same period last year, but the increase is relatively limited. - Overall, the fundamentals of rubber are moderately weak, mainly due to the expectation of increased supply in the future. With overseas tariffs in effect, there is no obvious increase in tire demand. The weak expectation makes it difficult for prices to break through the upside, and prices will continue to fluctuate within a range. External macro disturbances are likely to widen the price fluctuation range [23].

Report Summary - The overall trend of crude oil prices this week was a one - way downward movement. The market is worried about the US economic recession due to the lower - than - expected July non - farm employment data and the significant downward revision of May and June data. The demand - side support is gradually fading. The possible meeting between the US and Russian presidents eases the concern about Russian sanctions, and the previous premium has declined. OPEC+ will continue to increase production in September, intensifying the supply pressure. It is expected that the oil price will continue to be in a weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the support of WTI crude oil at $60 per barrel [8][54]. - It is recommended to focus on the range of $60 - 66 per barrel for WTI crude oil prices [9]. Multi - empty Focus Bullish Factors - Geopolitical risks [12] - The actual increase in OPEC+ production is lower than the plan [12] Bearish Factors - The weakening of demand - side support [12] - The easing of US - Russia relations [12] Macro Analysis US - Russia Relations - Trump threatened to impose sanctions on Russia, shortening the original 50 - day deadline to 10 days. The US Middle East envoy had a constructive meeting with Putin in Moscow. Trump plans to hold a US - Russia - Ukraine summit soon, and preparations for the "Putin - Trump meeting" are underway. The initial threat of sanctions supported the oil price, but the subsequent push for high - level meetings eased market tension, and the risk premium declined [13]. US Non - farm Data - In July, the US non - farm employment increased by 73,000, significantly lower than the expected 104,000, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downward. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increased from 45% to 75%. This situation has led to concerns about the weakening of the US economy and put pressure on oil prices [16]. US Tariffs on India - Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods because India imports Russian oil. India said it would continue to buy Russian oil. This move will have a limited impact on global crude oil supply [17]. OPEC+ Production Adjustment - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. The market has fully priced in this increase. The key lies in the speed and scale of the increase. It is expected that this round of production increase will be completed by the end of the fourth quarter. OPEC+ still has nearly 3.65 million barrels per day of production cuts that can be restored [21]. Data Analysis Supply - OPEC's crude oil production in June was 27.237 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 221,000 barrels per day, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. However, the production is still lower than the increase plan [22]. - As of the week ending August 1, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 30,000 barrels per day to 13.284 million barrels per day, and it is expected to remain at a low level [24]. - As of the week ending August 1, the total number of US oil rigs was 410, a decrease of 5 from the previous period. It is expected to continue to decline due to low oil prices [26]. Demand - As of the week ending August 1, US crude oil implied demand increased by 1.329 million barrels per day, while gasoline implied demand decreased by 54,000 barrels per day. The overall demand is around the average in recent years [30]. - As of the week ending August 1, the US refinery utilization rate was 96.9%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous period. It is at a high level in recent years, and there is limited room for further improvement [32]. - As of August 7, the operating rate of domestic major refineries in China was 82.39%, unchanged from the previous period. The operating rate of local independent refineries was 56.19%, down 0.66 percentage points. Major refineries still have room to increase production, and local refineries are expected to enter a production - increasing cycle in early September [37]. - As of August 8, the comprehensive refining profit of domestic major refineries was 938.85 yuan per ton, down 38.11 yuan per ton from the previous period. The comprehensive refining profit of local independent refineries was 230.95 yuan per ton, down 5.78 yuan per ton. Major refineries' profits have recovered to a high level in recent years, while local refineries' profits remain low [41]. Inventory - As of the week ending August 1, US EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 3.029 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories were 235,000 barrels. Crude oil inventories are expected to remain low [46]. - As of the week ending August 1, the crude oil inventory in Cushing increased slightly, and gasoline inventory decreased. Gasoline inventory is expected to enter a downward cycle [50]. Crack Spread - As of August 6, the US crude oil crack spread was $20.14 per barrel, up from the previous week, indicating a recovery in US refined oil consumption [51]. Market Outlook - In the short term, after the bullish factors of sanctions fade, the market will return to fundamental trading. With the weakening of demand - side support and the increase in OPEC+ production, the oil price may decline further. The cost of shale oil will support the price, and the oil price is expected to continue a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the support of WTI at $60 per barrel [54].

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Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures market oscillated upward, partially recovering from last week's decline. The trading volume of the main coking coal contract increased significantly, with a weekly increase of 12.31%. Currently, the divergence between long and short sides has intensified, and the market volatility has expanded. From the fundamental perspective, as the inventory pressure at the Ganqimao Port eases, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal continues to rise, while the domestic supply is affected by weather and production restrictions, with limited room for output growth. The inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises has changed from continuous replenishment for a month to destocking. The downstream replenishment pace has slowed down, and the upstream inventory depletion rate has decreased. However, as the overall inventory is lower than that of the same period last year, the upstream inventory pressure of coking coal has been significantly reduced. This week, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased, making it difficult to force active production cuts. Although the molten iron output has slightly declined, it remains at a high level, supporting the consumption of coke. At present, the spot market is cautious in following up, and the short - term upward momentum of prices has slowed down, with high - level oscillations for digestion [6][33]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Report Summary - From August 4th to 6th, the power consumption load in the operating area of the State Grid Corporation reached a record high for three consecutive days, with the maximum load reaching 1.233 billion kilowatts, an increase of 53 million kilowatts compared to the extreme value of 1.18 billion kilowatts last year [5]. - This week, the double - coking futures market oscillated upward, with the trading volume of the main coking coal contract increasing significantly. The divergence between long and short sides has intensified, and the market volatility has expanded. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is rising, while the domestic supply growth is limited. The downstream replenishment pace has slowed down, but the upstream inventory pressure has been reduced. The molten iron output remains high, and the consumption of coke is supported. The spot market is cautious, and the price upward momentum has slowed down [6]. - The newly revised "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" will be implemented on February 1, 2026. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. As of August 5th, the sample construction site capital availability rate was 58.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points [7]. Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The coking coal inventory is lower than that of last year, reducing inventory pressure; there is an expected decrease in coking coal supply; the molten iron output is at a high level, supporting demand [10]. - **Bearish factors**: The downstream replenishment pace of coking coal has slowed down; the import volume of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing [10]. Data Analysis - **Coking coal supply**: The domestic supply of coking coal has limited room for growth, while the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is rising. The operating rate of 523 sample mines decreased by 2.42% week - on - week, and the daily average output of clean coal decreased by 21,700 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants increased by 1.19% week - on - week, and the daily output increased by 5,900 tons. As of August 2nd, the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimao Port was 927,450 tons [14]. - **Coking coal upstream inventory**: As of the week of August 8th, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines decreased by 26,000 tons, while that of 110 sample coal washing plants increased by 21,000 tons. The port inventory decreased by 47,700 tons. The downstream replenishment pace has slowed down, but the overall inventory is lower than that of last year [15]. - **Coking enterprise inventory**: As of August 8th, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises decreased by 48,100 tons, and the available days decreased by 0.11 days. The coke inventory decreased by 38,900 tons. The coking coal inventory has changed from continuous replenishment to destocking [18]. - **Steel enterprise inventory**: As of August 8th, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises increased by 48,700 tons, and the available days increased by 0.12 days. The coke inventory decreased by 74,100 tons, and the available days decreased by 0.26 days. Steel enterprises continue to replenish coking coal slightly but destock coke [22]. - **Coke output**: As of August 8th, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises increased by 0.34%, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke increased by 2,900 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 0.32%, and the daily coke output decreased by 1,700 tons. Overall, the coke output has changed little [24]. - **Molten iron output and coke demand**: As of the week of August 8th, China's coke consumption decreased by 1,800 tons, and the daily average molten iron output decreased by 3,900 tons. The profitability rate of steel enterprises increased to 68.4%, making it difficult to force active production cuts. Although the molten iron output has slightly declined, it remains high, supporting coke demand [27]. - **Coke price increase**: As of the week of August 8th, the average loss per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises was 16 yuan/ton, which improved significantly compared to last week. The fifth round of coke price increase was fully implemented, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for dry - quenched coke in Hebei, Shandong and other places starting from 0:00 on August 4th. The implementation by steel enterprises was delayed compared to the price increase proposed by coking enterprises [28]. - **Double - coking far - month basis structure**: The spot price increase has slowed down [30]. Market Outlook - The trading volume of the main coking coal contract increased significantly, and the divergence between long and short sides has intensified. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is rising, while the domestic supply growth is limited. The downstream replenishment pace has slowed down, but the upstream inventory pressure has been reduced. The molten iron output remains high, and the consumption of coke is supported. The spot market is cautious, and the price upward momentum has slowed down [33]. - The sixth round of coke price increase has started. Some coking enterprises have issued price increase notices, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamping wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamping dry - quenched coke starting from August 11th. As the frequency of price increases accelerates, the acceptance of steel enterprises has gradually decreased, and the game between steel and coking enterprises has intensified. In the short term, the coke futures market is significantly affected by coking coal [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the asphalt market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The weekly production and operating rate on the supply - side have decreased, and the shipment volume on the demand - side has slightly declined. The decline in factory inventory is lower than the production decline, indicating poor sales from refineries, and the social inventory has slightly increased, showing weak downstream demand. Regarding crude oil, due to the proposed meeting between the US and Russian presidents, the previous premium caused by supply - tightening concerns has rapidly declined. The lower - than - expected US non - farm data in July and the significant downward revision of May and June data have raised concerns about the weakening US economy. OPEC+'s continued production increase has strengthened the expectation of supply surplus in the fourth quarter, causing oil prices to weaken this week. In the short term, crude oil lacks positive support, and oil prices are expected to find a new bottom. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of asphalt is not prominent, and crude oil fluctuations will dominate the market trend. It is recommended to track geopolitical changes and pay attention to the matching degree between refinery production schedules and the progress of terminal projects. It is advisable to focus on the BU2510 contract in the range of 3400 - 3550 yuan/ton and try to short on rebounds [7][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Abstract - Key market events include the proposed meeting between the US and Russian presidents weakening market sentiment, the lower - than - expected US non - farm data in July with significant downward revisions of May and June data, and OPEC+ announcing a production increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September [6]. - Key data shows that as of August 6, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 31.7%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the previous statistical period; as of August 8, the weekly asphalt production was 558,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 679,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from the previous week; and the social inventory was 1.367 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from the previous week. The trading strategy is to focus on the BU2510 contract in the range of 3400 - 3550 yuan/ton and short on rebounds [7]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt are low factory inventory and marginal macro - improvement; bearish factors are lower - than - expected demand and downward cost - side drivers [10]. 3.3 Macro Analysis - **US - Russia Relations**: Trump threatened to impose sanctions on Russia, which initially supported oil prices. Then, the US Middle East envoy visited Russia and promoted high - level meetings, easing market tensions and causing the risk premium to decline. The proposed meeting between the US and Russian presidents has weakened market sentiment, and short - term oil price trading will return to fundamentals, with news - based factors dominating short - term trends [11]. - **US Non - farm Data**: The US non - farm employment data in July was lower than expected, with an increase of 73,000 jobs compared to the expected 104,000, the smallest increase since last October. The data for May and June were significantly revised downward, with a total reduction of 258,000 jobs. This has raised concerns about the weakening US economy and put pressure on oil prices. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has increased from 45% to 75% [14]. - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting from September 2025. The market has already priced in this increase, and the key lies in the speed and scale of the production increase. It is expected to be fully implemented by the end of the fourth quarter. OPEC+ still has about 3.65 million barrels per day of production cuts that can be restored, and attention should be paid to whether a new round of production increase will be launched [18]. 3.4 Data Analysis - **Supply**: As of August 8, the weekly asphalt production was 558,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from the previous week. The increase in refinery maintenance plans led to a slight decline in production. In the third quarter, the terminal rush - work demand may stimulate refineries to increase the operating rate, and the weekly production has the potential for seasonal recovery. As of August 6, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 31.7%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the previous statistical period, mainly due to some refineries adjusting production plans and seasonal demand disturbances [19][28]. - **Demand**: As of August 8, the weekly asphalt shipment volume was 418,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week. The recent shipment volume has been around 410,000 tons, 30,000 tons lower than in June. The demand has weakened due to rainfall, and it is expected to rebound after the rain stops. The capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt was 15.87% as of August 8, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points from the previous week [29][32]. - **Import and Export**: In June, the domestic asphalt import was 375,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons (5.51%) and a year - on - year increase of 32.56%. The cumulative import from January to June was 1.725 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.53%. In June, the domestic asphalt export was 29,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,600 tons, and the cumulative export from January to June was 279,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 53.36% [39][42]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 679,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from the previous week. The decline in factory inventory was lower than the production decline, indicating poor sales from refineries. The social inventory was 1.367 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from the previous week, mainly due to the impact of typhoon and rainfall in the southern region on asphalt demand [53][60]. - **Spread**: As of August 8, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing dilution was - 604 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.3 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of August 6, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 54.91, and as of August 7, the asphalt basis was 197 yuan/ton. The asphalt cracking spread has recovered, mainly because the asphalt market is stronger than crude oil due to the significant decline in oil prices, and the weakening of asphalt futures prices has strengthened the basis [67].

螺矿产业链月报 汪楠 从业资格号：F3069002 投资咨询号：Z0017123 中航期货 2025-8-1 04 后市研判 目录 01 行情回顾 03 供需分析 02 宏观分析 行情PA回RT顾01 钢材：本月现货价格修复，基差走阔 行情PA回RT顾01 铁矿：现货价格上涨，基差进一步收敛 美国与贸易伙伴谈判取得进展，但后续仍存不确定性 宏观PA分RT析02 Ø 美国与贸易伙伴谈判取得进展，预期乐观：当地时间7月7日，美国总统特朗普签署行政命令，延长所谓"对等关税"暂缓期，将实施时间 从7月9日推迟到8月1日。美国将对等关税推迟至8月1日，市场预期美国及其贸易伙伴之间将达成贸易协议，这提振了风险情绪。 Ø 美国总统特朗普在社交平台宣布，美国分别与菲律宾和印尼达成了贸易协定。特朗普称，将菲律宾商品关税从20%下调至19%。菲律宾将对 美国开放市场，并实行零关税。印尼将对美国取消99%的关税壁垒。而印尼出口到美国的所有产品则需缴纳19%的关税。此外，印尼将向美国供 应其珍贵的关键矿产，并签署价值数百亿美元的重大协议，采购波音飞机、美国农产品和美国能源。特朗普表示，将对世界其他大部分国家征 收15%至50%的简单 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Alumina**: The operating capacity continues to rise, and the daily output reaches new highs, leading to an expected increase in overall supply and a persistent oversupply outlook. Although consumption also increases to some extent, the increment is relatively limited. Short - term spot prices may remain firm due to local supply shortages, but with the cooling of speculative sentiment driven by policy expectations, domestic alumina prices are likely to weaken. Attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts, overseas mine disturbances, and the specific measures of the new round of the "Ten Key Industries Stable Growth Work Plan" [6]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: On the supply side, there is only a small net increase in addition to replacement capacity. On the demand side, different sectors show obvious differentiation. The automotive industry will still be the main driving force for aluminum demand in August, while photovoltaic demand weakens slightly, and aluminum use in real estate and home appliances exerts a certain drag. Apparent consumption is expected to decline year - on - year from July to August, but there are expectations for the consumption peak season in September. It is predicted that aluminum ingot inventories will reach the peak of off - season inventory accumulation in the range of 560,000 - 600,000 tons around mid - August. In the short term, affected by the further decline in the September interest - rate cut expectation and the fall in alumina futures prices, aluminum prices are weak, with a support level at 20,000. In the long run, factors such as low inventory and supply constraints support an upward shift in the price center. Buying on dips is recommended [6]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The price of scrap aluminum remains high. Affected by the US tariff on aluminum and the exemption of scrap aluminum, the import of US scrap aluminum increases. Coupled with Thailand's suspension of issuing licenses to recycling factories, China's scrap aluminum imports may decline in the future, and scrap aluminum prices still have room to rise, strongly supporting the aluminum alloy price. The fundamentals of casting aluminum alloy are good, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock. The futures market generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and the price difference between the two is basically between 350 - 500 yuan/ton. When the price difference widens, an arbitrage operation of going long on aluminum alloy and short on Shanghai aluminum can be considered [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **3.1 Market Review (Part 02)** - In July, alumina futures prices fluctuated greatly, showing a trend of rising first and then falling, reaching a maximum of 3,577 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 7.94%. Electrolytic aluminum futures also showed a similar trend but with a smaller increase, operating in the range of 20,200 - 21,000 [8][9]. **3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects (Part 03)** - **Tariff Situation**: China and the US extended the tariff for 90 days, and short - term tariff disturbances subsided. The US announced a new version of "reciprocal tariffs" for multiple countries and regions, with the base rate remaining at 10%, and most countries having rates within 20% except Canada [12][13]. - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, and Powell's attitude was hawkish. Two Fed governors opposed maintaining the interest rate and supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July. The Fed is still weighing the impact of tariffs on inflation and employment, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut expectation may further decline due to strong US economic and employment data [15][17][19]. - **US Economic Data**: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. In July, the ADP employment increased by 104,000. The second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate increased by 3%. The core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year in June. The strong economic and employment data indicate that there is still a risk of inflation rising, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut expectation may be further adjusted downward [19]. - **Domestic Economic Situation**: China's second - quarter GDP annual rate was 5.2%, and the first - half GDP increased by 5.3% year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, national fixed - asset investment was 24.8654 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points seasonally. The Politburo meeting emphasized that macro - policies should continue to exert force in the second half of the year, and a series of policies are expected to support industrial product prices [25]. **3.3 Fundamental Aspects (Part 04)** - **Bauxite Supply**: Domestic bauxite supply is relatively loose despite some disturbances. In June 2025, domestic bauxite production was 5.1933 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 203,600 tons. In July, production in some regions was restricted by rainfall. In Guinea, although some mines resumed production, the rainy - season impact led to a decline in July's bauxite shipments. However, China's bauxite imports increased significantly in the first half of the year, and port inventories also increased, so the import price is expected to have limited rebound [27][32]. - **Alumina Supply and Demand**: As of late July, the national alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, and the operating capacity was 94.95 million tons, reaching a new high for the year. In June, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina and imported 101,000 tons. The supply is expected to remain in an oversupply situation. Low warehouse receipts support alumina futures prices, but attention should be paid to the changes in speculative sentiment [35][37][39]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum maintains high profits, with an expected profit of over 3,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year. The supply may increase slightly, but overall changes are not significant. Overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity has no obvious changes recently, and if all overseas capacity is put into production as scheduled, the output growth rate is expected to reach 3% - 5% from 2026 - 2027 [42][45][50]. - **Downstream Consumption**: - **Processing Enterprises**: The average weekly operating rate of processing enterprises decreased by 0.1% to 58.7%. Different sectors show different trends, and the aluminum foil sector may reduce production in August. The aluminum cable sector is expected to recover in the second half of August [54]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: In June, the newly - installed photovoltaic capacity decreased, but the power grid investment is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan in 2025, driving the demand for aluminum rods [59]. - **Real Estate**: The demand for aluminum in the real estate sector remains weak. From January to June, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and various indicators such as new construction area and completion area also declined [62]. - **Automotive Industry**: From January to June, automobile production and sales increased by 12.5% and 11.4% year - on - year respectively, and new - energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively. The automotive industry is expected to continue to drive aluminum consumption growth [66]. - **Home Appliances**: In August, the total production plan of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased by 4.9% year - on - year. Although the production plan of air conditioners still shows a year - on - year decline, the decline is expected to narrow [70]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventories have rebounded to a more than three - and - a - half - month high, and SHFE aluminum inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks. Aluminum ingot social inventories are accumulating, but the increase is within the seasonal range, and the current inventory level is still relatively low [73][76]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The scrap aluminum procurement market is tight. The price is supported by factors such as import restrictions, limited domestic supply growth, and concentrated procurement by large enterprises. The price is expected to rise, and the price difference between domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy is positive and at a relatively high level [80][83].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips in August and maintaining this strategy in the medium to long term [6][7] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, copper prices are under pressure due to the implementation of copper tariffs (excluding electrolytic copper) and the decline in the expectation of a September interest rate cut. However, with the expectation of two interest rate cuts this year and the tight supply of copper mines throughout the year, copper prices are supported. In the long run, as tariffs ease and the market expects interest rate cuts in Q3, liquidity will gradually ease the upper - limit pressure on metals, and the tight supply of copper mines will also support copper prices [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook (PART 01) - In August, maintain the strategy of buying on dips. The exclusion of electrolytic copper from the 50% copper tariff on August 1 may lead to the outflow of US electrolytic copper and accelerate the supply - demand balance in non - US regions. The Fed's inaction in July, combined with strong US economic and employment data and the risk of rising inflation, has further reduced the expectation of a September interest rate cut, which suppresses copper prices. In the medium to long term, as tariffs ease and the market expects interest rate cuts in Q3, there are still expectations of two interest rate cuts this year, which will gradually ease the upper - limit pressure on metals. The tight supply of copper mines throughout the year also supports copper prices. Although copper prices are currently in short - term adjustment with a support level of 77,000, the medium - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips is maintained [6][7] 2. Market Review (PART 02) - In July, copper prices were generally in a high - level consolidation. From late June to early July, due to the expectation that the "232" policy might be implemented in September or October, the shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions intensified, and copper prices rose. On July 3, Shanghai copper reached 80,990 yuan/ton, equivalent to the integer mark of 10,000 US dollars/ton for London copper. On July 8, the US announced a 50% tariff on copper, and copper prices fell from the high. In late July, the "anti - involution" trend in multiple industries and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station project boosted market sentiment, and copper prices reached 80,000 yuan/ton again. However, the "anti - involution" had limited impact on the non - ferrous supply, and the downstream acceptance of high prices was poor. After the sentiment subsided, copper prices returned to the fundamentals [8][9] 3. Macroeconomic Factors (PART 03) - **Tariff Policy**: The Sino - US tariff extension for 90 days has temporarily reduced tariff disturbances. The US announced a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivative products from August 1, excluding copper input materials and copper scrap. This led to a sharp decline in New York copper futures and related ETFs. Although electrolytic copper is excluded from the tariff, there is still long - term uncertainty as the US may consider imposing tariffs on electrolytic copper from 2027 [13][17] - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% in July, which was in line with market expectations. Two Fed governors voted against maintaining the interest rate, supporting a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in July. The strong US economic and employment data and the risk of rising inflation have reduced the expectation of a September interest rate cut [20][22] - **Domestic Economy**: China's Q2 GDP annual rate was 5.2%, and the first - half GDP increased by 5.3% year - on - year. Fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% year - on - year in the first half of the year, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. The Politburo meeting in July emphasized the need for macro - policies to continue to be effective in the second half of the year, release domestic demand potential, and promote high - level opening - up. The "anti - involution" policy and the acceleration of the implementation of growth - stabilizing policies may support industrial product prices [27] - **Policy Impact on Supply and Demand**: From the supply side, policies will guide the copper smelting industry to control production capacity, which is expected to restore TC/RC processing fees and ease the contradiction between mining and smelting. From the demand side, the "anti - involution" series of policies focus on promoting stable growth in the manufacturing industry, which will boost the downstream demand for copper. In the long run, the supply - demand mismatch may further push up the copper price center [29] 4. Fundamental Factors (PART 04) - **Supply Side** - **Copper Ore Import**: In June, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.3497 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 1.77%. The supplies from Chile and Peru, the top two suppliers, continued to decline, with Peru's supply dropping by about 15%. The long - term processing fees negotiated between domestic smelters and overseas mines this year are zero, and the spot processing fees in the domestic market remain low, indicating that the tight supply of copper mines is difficult to ease in the short term [30] - **Copper Ore Processing Fees**: As of the week of July 25, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 42.98 dollars/dry ton, up 0.22 dollars/dry ton from the previous week. The spot market for copper concentrates is less active, and processing fees are "stable with a slight correction" [34] - **Refined Copper Inventory**: Affected by the "232" tariff policy, the rush to import copper since April has led to a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions. However, as the policy expectation is fulfilled, LME copper inventory has increased. As of July 25, LME copper inventory reached 128,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons from the end of June. COMEX copper inventory is also increasing [38] - **Electrolytic Copper Production**: In the first half of 2025, China's electrolytic copper production reached a new high. From January to June, the cumulative production was 6.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 674,700 tons or 11.40%. The estimated production in July was 1.1504 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. Although smelting is in a loss stage, the willingness to cut production actively is not strong [42] - **Scrap Copper Import**: In June, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year increase of 8.49%. The supply from Thailand, the new largest scrap copper supplier, continued to increase, while the supply from the US dropped significantly due to tariff policies. However, due to the adjustment of the smelting raw material structure, domestic smelters' demand for scrap copper has increased, and the increased supply from other countries has made up for the shortfall [45] - **Demand Side** - **Power Sector**: As of the end of June, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18%. The solar power installed capacity was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in June decreased significantly after the "5.31 rush - to - install" period. In 2025, the investment in the national power grid is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time. From January to June, the cumulative investment in the power grid was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The power supply project investment also increased significantly. However, affected by the off - season and high copper prices, the wire and cable operating rate in June dropped to 72.41% [49] - **Real Estate Sector**: In the first half of 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. The new construction area, completion area, and other indicators all declined. Although real estate sales are basically stable and inventories are decreasing, the demand for copper in the real estate sector remains weak [53] - **Automobile Sector**: From January to June, automobile production and sales increased by 12.5% and 11.4% year - on - year respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively. The export of automobiles and new energy vehicles also increased significantly. With the implementation of relevant policies and the rich supply of new products, the increase in automobile production will drive copper consumption [57] - **Home Appliance Sector**: In June 2025, the national air - conditioner production was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The cumulative production from January to June was 163.296 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. In August, the total production plan for air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. Although the production plan for air - conditioners in August still decreased year - on - year, the decline was expected to narrow compared with the previous month [58]