铝月报（2026 年1月） 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2026-1-30 中航期货 目录 01 后市研判 03 宏观 面 02 行情回顾 04 基本 面 | 操 | 2 | 部 | 有 | 旧 | 升 | 近、 | 年1 | 有 | 铝 | 行 | 依 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 动， | 险 | 还 | 临 | 去 | 化 | 上 | 端 | 风 | 息 | 变 | 节 | 氧 | 价 | 给 | 自 | | | | | | | | | 势。 | 在 | 降 | 绪 | 春 | 供 | 铝 | 潜 | 准 | 性。 | 期。 | 情 | 且 | 弱 | 对 | | | | | | | | | | 缘 | 降 | 阻。 | 观 | 脱 | 韧 | 预 | 库 | ...

铝月报（2026年1月） 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2026-1-30 目录 01 后市研判 02 行情回顾 02 行情回顾 03 宏观 面 04 基本 面 后市研判 PART 01 1月氧化铝、电解铝、铝合金期价走势分化 1月份氧化铝期货价格呈现探底回升走势；1月份电解铝、铝合金期货价格呈现走势偏强的格局。 宏观面：美国就业市场弱平衡，通胀表现温和，1月份美联储按兵不动，但货币政策宽松预期不改，地缘潜在风险升 级 全球铝溢价传导加剧；国内方面，央行行长表示灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，今年降准降息还有 一定的空间。 氧化铝：铝土矿价格继续下跌，氧化铝成本因此下降，随着几内亚雨季结束，进口矿价格仍存在下跌预期。氧化铝部 分炼厂出现减产，供应压力稍有缓解，提振期价上涨，不过，目前供应过剩格局未改，氧化铝难以摆脱弱势。 目前供应过剩格局未改，氧化铝难以摆脱弱势。 电解铝：供应端目前电解铝运行产能变化有限，后期有增产预期。进入季节性淡季后，需求表现趋弱，且春节临近、 铝价高企或抑制下游拿货积极性，下游企业的提前退市将接踵而来，不过，光伏抢出口带动需 ...

铜月报（2026年1月） 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2026-1-30 目录 01 后市研判 01 后市研判 02 行情回顾 02 行情回顾 03 宏观面 04 基本面 后市研判 PART 01 1月铜价波动加剧 1月铜价波动加剧 建议回调偏多对待 宏观面：美国就业市场弱平衡，通胀表现温和，1月份美联储按兵不动，但货币政策宽松预期不改，地缘潜在风险升级，影响全球资产情绪和资金流 动；国内方面，央行行长表示灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，今年降准降息还有一定的空间。 基本面来看，全球铜矿品位下降、新项目投产缓慢、资本开支不足等问题难以在短期内解决，智利、秘鲁、刚果（金）等主产区频发运营中断事件， 导致全年产量增速不及预期。铜精矿现货 TC/RC 导致全年产量增速不及预期。铜精矿现货 TC/RC 持续处于深度负值区间，冶炼端利润承 持续处于深度负值区间，冶炼端利润承 持续处于深度负值区间，冶炼端利润承压，国内冶炼厂检修影响将进一步深化。需求方面，尽管建 筑、家电等传统领域受宏观周期影响复苏缓慢，但"抢出口"政策窗口仍为出口订单提供一定支撑。整体来看 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks are the core factors affecting the crude oil market. The escalation of US - Iran tensions may lead to supply disruptions and drive up oil prices. If the situation eases, the risk premium in oil prices may quickly disappear. The upside of oil prices may be limited if the situation does not further escalate, but short - term pulse - type price increases may occur due to unexpected events. It is recommended to track geopolitical developments [54] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In January, the crude oil market was strong under geopolitical influence. At the beginning of the month, the US raid on Venezuela and the detention of President Maduro raised concerns about supply disruptions, supporting short - term price increases. Then, the US hinted at relaxing sanctions on Venezuela, causing a drop in oil prices. Subsequently, rising Middle - East geopolitical risks, such as Trump's military threat to Iran and the deployment of US warships, pushed up oil prices again [7] 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Geopolitical Tensions - The US detained Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife. A large number of US military planes flew to Europe, and Iran strengthened its combat readiness. Trump is considering new major strikes against Iran. As the US completes military deployment in the Middle East, the risk of intensified geopolitical tensions is rising. The way of US military intervention will determine the impact on oil prices [10] - The US, Russia, and Ukraine held their first tripartite talks, but there were still significant differences on the issue of Ukrainian territory. The situation is expected to continue with a combination of fighting and negotiation, and the direct impact on oil prices is currently limited [11] 3.2.2 OPEC+ Production Policy - OPEC+ continued to suspend production increases in January and reaffirmed the plan to pause production increases in the first quarter. The total OPEC+ crude oil production in December decreased compared to November. The suspension of production increases and over - quota cuts support oil prices. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of rising oil prices and Middle - East tensions on OPEC+ production policies [14] 3.2.3 Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts, but there were internal disagreements. The Fed upgraded its assessment of the US economy. Powell said that interest rate cuts depend on the labor market. Although the market has priced in the pause of rate cuts, expectations of future rate cuts may rise due to Trump's potential appointment of a new Fed chairman [17] 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - OPEC's crude oil production increased in December, but the growth rate slowed down. After the end of the first - quarter production - increase suspension, attention should be paid to changes in OPEC+ production policies [18] - US crude oil production decreased from the previous month as of January 23, and is expected to remain stable at a high level [21] - The number of US oil rigs decreased slightly, and it is expected to remain at a low level [24] 3.3.2 Demand - In December, the US manufacturing PMI decreased and was below the boom - bust line, which suppressed crude oil demand to some extent. The US refinery utilization rate decreased seasonally, but is expected to rise in the second quarter [26][31] - In December, China's manufacturing PMI increased and was above the boom - bust line. The production side was relatively stable, but the demand side was weak. The operating rates of Chinese refineries showed a differentiation trend, and overall domestic crude oil consumption is expected to slightly improve [39][43] 3.3.3 Inventory - The US EIA crude oil inventory faced the pressure of seasonal accumulation. The Cushing crude oil inventory decreased slightly, and the gasoline inventory reached an inflection point [48][52]

沥青月报 ---强预期推升盘面 关注地缘局势演绎 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2026-1-30 04 后市研判 目录 01 行情回顾 03 供需分析 02 宏观分析 行情PA回RT顾01 原料偏紧及油价走强 价格触底反弹 Ø 1月份受原料端偏紧及油价偏强的双重影响，沥青价格触底反弹，今年以来累计上涨14.5%。一是美国突袭委内瑞拉后深度 介入其原油领域，稀释沥青进口来源受限及贴水大幅收窄，原料端收紧及成本抬升预期对盘面提供支撑。二是中东地缘紧 张局势升温，美国正加速向中东地区进行军事部署，美国总统特朗普相关言论加剧市场的担忧情绪，市场担忧局势恶化可 能导致霍尔木兹海峡通航受阻，由此引发的供应中断潜在风险推升油价，并传导至化工板块。 OPEC+1月份暂停增产 重申一季度暂停增产的计划 Ø OPEC+1月份继续暂停增产，重申一季度暂停增产的计划：1月4日欧佩克在一份声明中表示，八个参与国重申了2025年11月2日的 决定，即由于季节性因素，暂停2026年2月和3月的增产，八个参与国重申，165万桶/日的产量可能会根据不断变化的市场状况， 以部分或全部的方式逐步 ...

钢材铁矿月度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2026-01-30 目录 01 后市预判 02 产业动态 03 数据分析 后市研判 PART 01 ➢ 展望2月，市场即将进入春节前的交易，市场交投预计将有所走弱。从需求端看，螺纹受春节假期及天气因素影响， 需求端积极性走弱，节后复工预期是关键变量。热卷也将同步走弱，制造业工厂放假，需求下滑，但部门工厂仍有赶 工情况，需求韧性相对稍好，节后偏高社会库存与偏高供给压制价格，库存去化力度是市场博弈焦点，同时需关注在 "两新" 等政策推动下，制造业需求存在结构性支撑，可能带来阶段性机会。短期钢材基本面矛盾不突出，横盘震 荡为主。 数据分析 PART 03 钢材供应表现平稳 ➢ 1月以来，螺纹产量较去年同期变化不大，维持偏低的水平，热 卷产量较去年同期有所下滑。截至1月30日，螺纹钢周度实际产量 为199.83万吨，较去年同期增加22.16万吨，热卷周度实际产量为 309万吨，较去年同期减少14.22万吨。进入2月，受春节假期影响 预计螺纹钢和热卷产量将维持低位。特别是独立电弧炉钢厂，由 于废钢回收收紧、仅谷电时段微利 ...

焦煤焦炭月度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2026-1-30 目录 01 后市研判 02 焦煤基本面 03 焦炭基本面 后市研判 PART 01 ➢ 从焦煤基本面看，2026年首月，炼焦煤的供应逐步回升，供给端略显宽松，但进入2月，受春节假期影响，供应端 将有所收紧。在下游回补库存的带动下，炼焦煤上游库存有所去化，库存结构较去年同期有明显改善。其中，1月 以来独立焦企炼焦煤持续回补库存，由于今年春节时间较晚，回补的时间及体量均较去年同期有明显增加。钢厂 炼焦煤库存回补力度不及独立焦企，库存水平较去年同期有明显下降。临近年末，基本面数据表现平稳，近期宏 观情绪变化明显，放大盘面震幅。年前供需缺乏突出矛盾，预计震荡运行为主。 后市研判 PART 01 ➢ 从焦炭基本面，1月以来整体焦炭产量维持相对稳定态势，但较去年同期有所下移。进入2月面临春节假期，独立焦 企产量将有所下滑。247家钢铁日均铁水产量维持相对平稳，上下区间不大，带动焦炭消费量企稳。1月以来，独立 焦企的焦炭库存重心有所下移，钢厂回补库存带动库存量上升。今年焦企库存结构有改善，累库压力不大。焦企 ...

铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2026-1-23 中航期货 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 | 响， | 政 | 万 | 解 | 周 | 2%。 | 存。 | 心 | 符 | 行 | 的21 | 币 | 电 | 上 | 影 | 核 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 央 | 均 | 仍 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 至60. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 货 | 较 | 观 | 内 | 撑 | 月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel prices continued to fluctuate within a range this week, affected by steel mill safety accidents. Macroscopically, the commodity market cooled down under the influence of Trump's policy risks, but geopolitical interference persisted. The domestic central bank released policy benefits, which may provide some support for prices. Fundamentally, the resumption of steel production was disrupted by safety accidents, which was a short - term positive for prices. However, there was no improvement in steel demand, and it remained in the seasonal off - season. Steel mill inventories accumulated, making it difficult to drive prices up. The subsequent demand performance still depends on export conditions. Overall, short - term supply disruptions are unlikely to improve the supply - demand pattern, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate within the range [5][58]. - Iron ore prices fell from their highs this week, mainly due to the weakened expectation of hot metal production resumption caused by steel mill safety accidents. In terms of supply, iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased this week. In terms of demand, hot metal production increased slightly this week, and subsequent safety inspections may continue to cause disruptions. Previously, the market expected steel mills to replenish their iron ore inventories before the Spring Festival when the inventory was low, so iron ore prices remained strong. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the logic of steel mill inventory replenishment may weaken, and high port inventories under pressure on demand may put pressure on the market again. It is expected that iron ore prices will continue to fluctuate at high levels before the Spring Festival and may face downward pressure after the Spring Festival [5][60]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: In 2026, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The National Development and Reform Commission will formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 - 2030, implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and address low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises. Trump's policies pose risks to the commodity market, and he threatened to retaliate strongly if European countries sell US assets due to Greenland - related tariff threats [5]. - **Key Data**: In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0% year - on - year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.9%. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7%. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8%, with real estate development investment down 17.2%. In January 2026, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR was 3%, both remaining unchanged. In the third quarter of 2025, the US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.4% quarter - on - quarter. The US core PCE price index in November 2025 met expectations, and the number of initial jobless claims last week was 200,000, lower than expected [5]. - **Main Views**: Steel prices continued to fluctuate within a range, affected by safety accidents. Macro factors and domestic policy benefits may support prices, but weak demand and inventory accumulation limit upward potential. Iron ore prices fell from highs due to safety - related factors. Supply decreased, and demand was subject to safety inspections. The pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment logic may weaken, and high port inventories may lead to downward pressure after the Spring Festival [5]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **For Steel (Thread)**: Bullish factors include the continuation of domestic loose policies, production interference from accidents and maintenance, and cost support. Bearish factors are the off - season for steel demand, inventory accumulation in steel mills, and uncertainties regarding export licenses [8]. - **For Iron Ore**: Bullish factors are positive macro sentiment, the continuation of domestic loose policies, and a decrease in shipments this week. Bearish factors are production interference from steel mill accidents, the impact of safety accidents on hot metal production resumption, high port inventories, and the weakening of the inventory replenishment logic [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Macro**: In December 2025, China's social消费品 retail sales grew by 0.9% year - on - year, lower than expected. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% in 2025, with real estate development investment down 17.2%. The GDP growth rate in 2025 was 5%, and the industrial added value in December increased by 5.2% year - on - year, better than expected [10][12]. - **Terminal - Automobile**: In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. New energy vehicle production and sales exceeded 16 million, accounting for over 50% of domestic new car sales. Automobile exports exceeded 7 million. It is expected that the total automobile sales in 2026 will reach 34.75 million, a year - on - year increase of 1%. Since January 1, 2026, the new energy vehicle purchase tax has been halved [15]. - **Terminal - Engineering Machinery**: In 2025, the engineering machinery industry recovered significantly. In December, the sales of various excavators were 23,095 units, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%. The annual cumulative sales reached 235,257 units, a year - on - year increase of 17%. In 2025, China's shipbuilding industry maintained growth, with new orders accounting for 67.0% of the world market share [19]. - **Terminal - Steel Export**: In December 2025, steel exports increased significantly. The annual cumulative steel exports reached 119.019 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. The increase in December was due to the rush to export before the implementation of export licenses and year - end factors. In January, export plans have returned to normal levels, and export orders have declined [20][21]. - **Supply**: In December 2025, China's crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The annual crude steel production was 960.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [25]. - **(Thread) Spot**: The spot price of steel decreased, and the basis continued to narrow [26]. - **Profit**: The profitability of steel mills increased by 0.86 percentage points to 40.69% this week [28]. - **Output**: The blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates decreased. The five - type building material output was 8.1959 million tons, with thread output at 1.9955 million tons and hot - rolled coil output at 3.0541 million tons. Some short - process steel mills in Guangxi and Guangdong are on holiday, and production will resume after the Lantern Festival [30][34]. - **Table Demand**: The apparent demand for five - type building materials was 8.0952 million tons, with thread at 1.8552 million tons and hot - rolled coil at 3.0996 million tons. The winter storage enthusiasm in Shandong and Anhui decreased [37]. - **Inventory**: Thread inventory accumulated, and hot - rolled coil inventory remained at a high level. The total inventory of five - type building materials was 12.5708 million tons, with thread at 4.521 million tons and hot - rolled coil at 3.5778 million tons [40]. - **(Iron Ore) Spot**: The spot price of iron ore decreased, and the basis fluctuated within a narrow range [41]. - **Import and Shipment**: In December 2025, China imported 119.647 million tons of iron ore, a month - on - month increase of 8.2%. From January 12 - 18, 2026, the global iron ore shipment decreased by 2.511 million tons [45]. - **Shipment**: In the fourth quarter of 2025, the production and sales of major iron ore mines generally increased. BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fenix Resources all reported growth in production and sales [46]. - **Arrival**: From January 12 - 18, 2026, the arrival of iron ore at Chinese ports decreased. The 47 - port arrival was 28.977 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.173 million tons [47]. - **Hot Metal Production**: The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 2.281 million tons this week, a slight increase [49]. - **Port Inventory**: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports increased to 167.6653 million tons, and the daily average port clearance decreased to 3.1073 million tons [53]. - **Steel Mill Consumption and Inventory**: The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills increased to 93.8882 million tons, the daily consumption was 2.819 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 33.31 days [55]. 3.4后市研判 - **Steel**: Short - term supply disruptions cannot improve the supply - demand pattern, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate within the range [58]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels before the Spring Festival and face downward pressure after the Spring Festival [60].

焦煤焦炭周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2026-01-23 目录 01 报告摘要 本周双焦盘面呈现"小V"型走势。从焦煤基本面看，1月以来炼焦煤整体供应呈小幅回升态势，但下游的焦化企业与钢厂开始主 动回补炼焦煤库存，使得上游的整体库存去化进程有所改善。其中独立焦企原料炼焦煤连续多周回补库存，回补力度较钢厂要明 显，钢厂维持刚需采购为主，库存回补力度有限。从焦炭基本面看，1月以来钢厂和独立焦企的焦炭产能利用率维持弱稳态势。 需求侧，钢厂铁水产量已阶段性企稳，为焦炭的实际消费提供了刚性支撑。焦化企业因利润持续承压，挺价意愿显著增强，于1 月中旬起陆续尝试提涨。然而，由于终端成材需求尚未展现出强劲态势，钢厂利润空间同样受限，对原料涨价抵触情绪强烈，导 致焦炭新一轮提涨博弈陷入僵局，未能落地。整体看，近期工业品氛围回暖，焦煤盘面部分空头资金离场，带动盘面有所止跌。 短期焦煤基本面缺乏驱动因素，宏观情绪主导波动幅度，盘面维持区间震荡。 基本面概况 市场焦点 主要观点 1. 据陕西省能源局消息，2025年，陕西省可再生能源电力消费量达到881.8亿千瓦时，占全社 ...