Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - With a bullish fundamental outlook and the re - mention of "anti - involution" remarks in the domestic macro - environment, the coking coal market is boosted. It is recommended to buy on dips. After the Fed's interest - rate cut event, the market focus returns to the supply - demand situation. Attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment intensity before the National Day and the capital - side fluctuations caused by margin increases, which may cause short - term interference to the upward slope of coking coal prices. Coke's upward driving force is limited, and its short - term price trend will follow coking coal [5][30]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Report Summary (PART 01) - As of September 16, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. Non - housing project capital improved, while housing project capital deteriorated [5]. - The central environmental protection inspection team provided feedback to the Shanxi provincial government on September 12, requiring strict implementation of coal production control and air pollution governance [5]. - President Xi Jinping's article in the 18th issue of Qiushi magazine on September 16 mentioned measures to address low - price competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity [5]. - Coking coal supply increased slightly, and the upstream inventory depletion rate slowed down. Independent coking enterprises replenished coking coal inventory, while steel mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases. Coke production was stable, iron - water production remained high, and the second round of coke price cuts was implemented, turning the average profit per ton of coke from positive to negative [5]. Multi - Empty Focus (PART 02) - Bullish factors: Reduced coking coal inventory pressure, high iron - water production supporting coke demand, downstream replenishment before the National Day, and limited production increase due to "anti - involution" remarks [8]. - Bearish factors: Increased Mongolian coal imports and low replenishment enthusiasm of steel mills [8]. Data Analysis (PART 03) - Coking coal supply: The operating rates of 314 sample coal - washing plants and 523 sample mines increased, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume remained high [11]. - Coking coal upstream inventory: The inventory depletion rate slowed down. Mines' inventory decreased, while coal - washing plants' and ports' inventory increased [12]. - Independent coking enterprises: They replenished coking coal inventory and reduced their own coke inventory [15]. - Steel mills: They mainly made rigid - demand purchases, with coking coal inventory decreasing and coke inventory increasing [19]. - Coke production: The overall coke production remained stable [21]. - Iron - water production: It remained at a high level, supporting coke consumption [23]. - Coke profit: After the second round of price cuts, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises turned negative, and the profit rate of steel enterprises continued to decline [25]. - Double - coking far - month basis structure: The spot and futures prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated strongly [27]. 后市研判 (PART 04) - Coking coal: Although mines resumed production after the parade, production increase was limited due to policies. With demand support and reduced inventory pressure, and the boost from "anti - involution" remarks, it is recommended to buy on dips [30]. - Coke: After the second - round price cuts, the profit of independent coking enterprises turned negative. The upward driving force is limited, and it will follow coking coal in the short term [33].

中航期货 2025-09-19 原油周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 数据分析 05 后市研判 报告PA摘R要T 01 （1）美联储降息25BP，开启年内首次降息。 （2）中美就妥善解决TikTok问题达成基本框架共识。 （3）俄乌谈判暂停，地缘局势升温。 市场焦点 重点数据 （1）美国至9月12日当周EIA原油库存 -928.5万桶，预期-85.7万桶，前值393.9万桶。 （2）美国至9月12日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 -29.6万桶，前值-36.5万桶。 （3）美国至9月12日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 50.4万桶，前值51.4万桶。 主要观点 本周油价先涨后跌，整体呈现窄幅震荡的行情，主要的交易逻辑仍在于"强现实、弱预期"的基本面和地缘政治 的博弈。美国EIA原油及成品油库存超预期下降，表明需求仍存在一定韧性，但OPEC+开启新一轮增产加大供应端的压 力，同时8月份月报表明OPEC增产加速落地，第一轮增产有望在四季度完全兑现，随着需求旺季进入尾声，四季度供 应过剩的预期逐步强化，对油价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%. The meeting was generally in line with expectations, but the attitude was neutral and slightly hawkish. After the interest rate cut was realized, the US dollar rebounded after hitting a low, and commodities adjusted overall. The expectation of multiple interest rate cuts within the year was confirmed, and liquidity growth would continue [5][11]. - The copper price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Pay attention to the support around 79,200. The mid - term strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [5][57]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the first rate cut this year and the resumption of rate cuts after 9 months. Most Fed officials expect two more rate cuts this year and one next year [11]. - From January to August, the national industrial added - value above designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year, with the growth rate falling. Infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment growth rates declined, and real estate development investment decreased [14]. - The copper price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and the mid - term strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - There is an expectation that the smelting output center will shift downward [8]. - The spot processing fee remains at a low level, and the tightness at the mine end still exists [8]. - Social inventory has decreased [8]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - The interest rate cut has been realized, and the bullish news is exhausted [8]. - The spot premium continues to decline [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 Copper Ore Imports - In August, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 275.9 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August were 20.054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [17]. 3.3.2 Copper Concentrate TC - As of the week of September 12, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.68 US dollars per dry ton, up 0.17 US dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The spot TC of copper concentrate increased slightly, but the overall sentiment was cautious, and spot transactions remained light [21]. 3.3.3 Copper Production - In August 2025, China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) output was 1.301 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. In September, it is expected that the output will decline due to smelter maintenance and anode copper supply shortages [25]. 3.3.4 Scrap Copper Imports - In July, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.98%. The main driving factor was strong domestic demand [29]. 3.3.5 Copper Products Output - In August 2025, China's copper products output was 2.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%, a month - on - month increase of 2%, and a multi - year high for the same period [33]. 3.3.6 Premium between Refined and Scrap Copper - As of September 18, the premium between refined and scrap copper was around - 530 yuan per ton, which was beneficial to refined copper consumption [37]. 3.3.7 Social Inventory - Last week, LME copper inventory continued to decline. SHFE copper inventory increased by 14.9% to 94,054 tons in the week of September 12. COMEX copper inventory reached a new high since January 2004. On September 18, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased by 0.13 tons compared with September 15 [50]. 3.3.8 Copper Spot Premium - On September 18, the spot premium of Shanghai Wumaotrade 1 copper was around 30 yuan per ton, with the premium narrowing. The LME 0 - 3 spot discount was around - 71.09 US dollars per ton, with the discount widening [54]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The copper price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Pay attention to the support around 79,200. The mid - term strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall situation is still bullish, transitioning from trading "policy expectations" to trading "fundamentals." Aluminum prices should focus on the support around 20,600 and await the verification of the peak season of domestic downstream demand [5]. - For aluminum alloys, the short - term supply - demand fundamentals change little, and the alloy prices still fluctuate with aluminum prices. It is recommended to take a bullish approach on pullbacks [67]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first rate cut this year and the restart after a 9 - month hiatus. The meeting was generally in line with expectations but reduced the rate - cut expectations for next year, with a neutral - to - hawkish stance [5][11]. - From January to August, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.2% year - on - year, with the growth rate down 0.1 percentage points from January to July. Infrastructure investment grew by 2.0% year - on - year, with the growth rate down 1.2 percentage points; manufacturing investment grew by 5.1%, down 1.1 percentage points; real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, with the decline widening by 0.9 percentage points [5]. - Aluminum supply - side increments are relatively limited, and the seasonally strong consumption season has seen an increase in the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises. However, high aluminum prices have curbed the purchasing enthusiasm of processing enterprises, and the inflection point of social inventory has not yet arrived [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Side Focus - **Bullish factors**: Limited supply - side increments, continuous increase in the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises, and social inventory remaining at a low level [8]. - **Bearish factors**: Alumina prices continue to be weak, and the rate - cut利好 is exhausted [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Aluminum ore production**: From January to July 2025, China's aluminum ore production was 35.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.21%. In July, it was 543,450 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.42%. Guinean imported ore remains stable, but attention should be paid to the disturbances around the referendum [16][19]. - **Alumina**: In August 2025, China's alumina production was 7.925 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the spot price is expected to continue to adjust weakly [23]. - **Primary aluminum**: In August 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In September, the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly [25]. - **Aluminum downstream processing**: The operating rate of leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2% this week, but high aluminum prices have curbed inventory - building. In August, China's aluminum product output was 5.548 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.2% [28][31]. - **Inventory**: LME and SHFE aluminum inventories both increased. As of September 18, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 636,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from Monday [41][45]. - **Price spread**: On September 18, the average price premium of Shanghai Wumaohui aluminum was - 20 yuan/ton, with the discount narrowing; the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium was 4.89 US dollars/ton, with the premium narrowing [49]. - **Recycled aluminum**: In August, recycled aluminum alloy production was 614,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. It is expected to decline slightly in September. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 0.2 percentage points to 55.5% as of September 11 [53][57]. - **Import and export**: In July 2025, the import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.6%, hitting a four - year low [61]. - **Aluminum alloy inventory**: As of September 19, China's weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy was 71,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons from last week, and the in - factory inventory was 60,800 tons, an increase of 300 tons from last week [66]. 3.4 Market Outlook - **Aluminum alloy**: The short - term supply - demand fundamentals change little, and the alloy prices still fluctuate with aluminum prices. It is recommended to take a bullish approach on pullbacks [67]. - **SHFE aluminum**: Aluminum prices should focus on the support around 20,600 and await the verification of the peak season of domestic downstream demand [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the fundamentals of asphalt showed signs of marginal improvement. The supply side saw flat week - on - week production and开工率, while the demand side had increased shipments and decreased factory and social inventories. However, as the peak - season demand nears its end, the fundamental improvement may not be sustainable, and the support for the futures market is weak. Crude oil has mixed influencing factors, with supply - surplus expectations suppressing prices and geopolitical factors providing intermittent support. In the short term, asphalt will show a wide - range oscillating trend under the combined influence of fundamentals and cost, and the crude oil fluctuations will dominate the market. It is recommended to track geopolitical developments and focus on the BU2511 contract in the range of 3350 - 3500 yuan/ton [7][65] Summary by Directory Report Summary - Market focuses include the Fed's 25 - BP interest rate cut, the basic framework consensus on resolving the TikTok issue between China and the US, and the suspension of Russia - Ukraine negotiations [6] - Key data: As of September 17, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise开工率 was 34.4%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous period. As of September 19, the domestic asphalt weekly production was 60.7 tons, down 0.1 tons from last week; the sample enterprise factory inventory was 65.3 tons, down 3.1 tons; the social inventory was 114.6 tons, down 3.4 tons [7] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt are inventory decline and raw - material disturbances; bearish factors are demand falling short of expectations and insufficient upward cost - side drivers [11] Macro Analysis - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 BP on September 18, from 4.25% - 4.50% to 4.00% - 4.25%, and is expected to cut twice more this year. Powell said the US labor market is weakening. After the rate - cut expectation is fulfilled, the market sentiment has recovered, but further economic data decline may suppress oil prices [12] - Russia - Ukraine negotiations have been suspended, and the US and Europe have threatened to impose tariffs on Russian oil buyers, which provides support for oil prices [13] Data Analysis - Supply: As of September 19, the domestic asphalt weekly production was 60.7 tons, down 0.1 tons from last week. The开工率 was 34.4% as of September 17, down 0.5 percentage points, with significant declines in East and Northeast China. The supply increase is expected to be limited due to unimproved refinery profits [14][24] - Demand: As of September 19, the domestic asphalt weekly shipments were 45.5 tons, up 5.8 tons. The modified asphalt weekly capacity utilization rate was 20.23%, up 1.71 percentage points, with significant increases in North China and Shandong [25][28] - Import: In July, domestic asphalt imports were 38.05 tons, up 0.48 tons month - on - month and 16.53% year - on - year. The cumulative imports from January to July were 210.55 tons, down 7.5% year - on - year [35] - Export: In July, domestic asphalt exports were 5.57 tons, up 2.62 tons month - on - month. The cumulative exports from January to July were 33.49 tons, up 46.45% year - on - year [38] - Inventory: As of September 19, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise factory inventory was 65.3 tons, down 3.1 tons, and the social inventory was 114.6 tons, down 3.4 tons [7] - Spread: As of September 19, the domestic asphalt processing dilution weekly profit was - 557.9 yuan/ton, down 66.2 yuan/ton. As of September 17, the asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio was 54.13, and as of September 18, the asphalt basis was 163 yuan/ton [63] 后市研判 - Asphalt is expected to continue a wide - range oscillating trend under the influence of fundamentals and cost. The demand improvement may not last as the peak season ends. Crude oil has mixed factors and lacks a clear direction. It is recommended to track geopolitical developments and focus on the BU2511 contract in the range of 3350 - 3500 yuan/ton [65]

Group 1: Report Summary - 2025年9月17 - 23日，天然橡胶东南亚主产区降雨量较上一周期增加，赤道以北高降水量区域主要集中在缅甸南部、柬埔寨西南部等地区，赤道以南高降水量区域主要分布在印尼东南部地区 [6] - 美联储如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率下调至4.00% - 4.25%，为年内首次降息，也是时隔9个月后重启降息 [6] - 日本8月份出口额同比下降0.1%，连续第四个月下滑；进口同比减少5.2%，对美国出口同比下滑13.8%，对美汽车出口同比大降28.4% [6] - 天然橡胶原料端价格小幅分化，延续小幅去库；顺丁橡胶原料丁二烯价格窄幅波动，库存小幅去化；轮胎整体产能利用率小幅回升 [6] - 本周橡胶盘面震荡偏弱，受美联储降息后市场情绪变化影响明显，自身基本面因素对盘面驱动有限，仍在区间内震荡，后续关注天气因素和原料端价格对橡胶的影响 [6] Group 2: Multi - Empty Focus - 多方因素包括短期橡胶原料价格持稳、国庆节前补库需求带动库存去化、轮胎开工率回升 [9] - 空方因素包括未来天气转好割胶上量预期、美联储降息落地市场宽松周期预期降低、半钢胎企业库存去化不畅 [9] Group 3: Data Analysis - 截至9月18日，泰国原料新鲜胶水价格56.3泰铢/公斤，杯胶价格51.05泰铢/公斤，国内云南地区胶水价格为14600元/吨，海南地区胶水价格为13400元/吨，国内产区价格相对平稳，成本端支撑仍存 [10] - 截至2025年9月14日，中国天然橡胶社会库存123.5吨，环比下降2.2万吨，青岛保税区现货库存环比下降6013万吨，青岛一般贸易库存环比增加377吨，预计近期继续降库 [13] - 本周国内丁二烯价格延续小幅震荡，周均价略有下滑，顺丁橡胶理论生产亏损为156.5714元/吨，企业理论生产利润仍旧承压 [14] - 截至9月19日当周，顺丁橡胶厂内库存较上周去库400吨，贸易商库存较上周去库390吨，高顺顺丁橡胶产量较上周减少1510吨 [17] - 截至9月19日当周，全钢胎样本企业产能利用率为66.36%，环比增加0.05%，同比增加6.18%；半钢胎样本企业产能利用率为72.74%，环比增加0.13%，同比减少6.92% [18] - 截至9月11日，“RU - NR”01月合约价差维持震荡，“NR - BR”主力合约价差窄幅区间震荡，橡胶内部供需基本面分化不明显 [20] Group 4: Future Market Judgment - 宏观面，美联储9月议息会议如期降息25bp，市场对未来宽松周期的预期程度降低，盘面宏观交易权重增大 [24] - 基本面，原料价格略显疲软但未形成下跌趋势，成本端支撑仍存，天然橡胶库存继续降库，轮胎产能利用率延续小幅回升 [24] - 综合来看，橡胶盘面受美联储降息后市场情绪影响明显，基本面因素驱动有限，仍在区间内震荡，后续关注天气和原料价格影响 [24]

焦煤焦炭周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2025-09-12 目录 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 01 1. 据百年建筑调研，截至9月9日，样本建筑工地资金到位率为59.24%，周环比下降0.16个百分点。其中，非房建项目资金 到位率为61.03%，周环比上升0.02个百分点；房建项目资金到位率为50.75%，周环比下降0.64个百分点。本期建筑工地 项目资金到位率下滑，其中非房建项目保持微增，房建项目资金减少较明显。 本周双焦盘面维持横盘震荡，振幅有所收窄。从宏观看，海外经济数据表现较弱，虽提振美联储降息预期，但短期也反映出 海外需求预期减弱。从基本面看，成材市场表现不佳，独立焦企和钢厂炼焦煤补库积极性依旧不高，但目前焦煤上游库存压 力已明显减轻，同时阅兵活动结束后，双焦供需两端均在缓慢复苏，铁水产量再度回升至240万吨以上带动双焦需求存支撑， 也使得价格下行驱动减弱。目前原料端价格的坚挺侵蚀钢厂利润，随着焦煤价格处在弱势盘整阶段，钢厂对焦企的提降意愿 逐步增强，首轮提降落地不久，第二轮提降再起。 ...

橡胶周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2025-09-12 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 主要观点 市场焦点 2. 2025年是中国对新能源汽车免征车辆购置税的最后一年，2026年和2027年购买新能源汽车的个人和单位，将恢复征收 车购税，但依然可以享受减半征税的优惠。 3. 欧洲央行连续第二次会议按兵不动，认为通胀压力已得到有效遏制，且欧元区经济保持稳健态势。交易员削减对该行 宽松政策的押注，暗示降息周期已经结束。 4. 墨西哥拟对有关贸易伙伴提高进口关税税率，商务部新闻发言人对此回应称，注意到有关报道，将密切关注墨方提税 动向，并对有关最终措施进行认真评估。中方将根据实际情况采取必要措施，坚决维护自身正当合法权益。 1. 天然橡胶原料端价格稳中偏强。 2. 天然橡胶延续小幅去库。 3. 顺丁橡胶原料丁二烯价格窄幅波动。 4. 顺丁橡胶库存去化不畅。 5. 轮胎整体产能利用率小幅回升。 多空焦点 PART 02 多空因素分析 | 多方因素 | 空方因素 | | --- | --- | | 天气扰动，橡胶原料价格稳 ...

Report Summary Market Focus - China held a grand ceremony to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War on September 3. China's economic sentiment generally continued to expand. The Fed's Beige Book reported little or no change in economic activity in most US regions, with rising prices and little or no net change in overall employment. On September 4, US President Trump signed an executive order to implement the US-Japan trade agreement, imposing a 15% benchmark tariff on almost all Japanese imports and providing separate industry-specific treatments for automobiles, auto parts, and aerospace products [5]. Key Data - China's official manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI in August were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, up 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points month-on-month. Industries like general equipment and railway, ship, and aerospace equipment had production and operation activity expectation indices above 58%. The US job openings in July dropped from 7.36 million in June to 1.181 million, a 10 - month low, far below the expected 7.382 million. The US ADP employment in August increased by only 54,000, well below the expected 65,000. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August rose from 49.8 in July to 50.7, a three - year high, and the composite PMI reached a 12 - month high [5]. Main Views - Steel prices continued to decline this week due to weaker coking coal price support and continuous steel inventory accumulation. Despite the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts overseas, domestic steel was in the off - season with increasing inventory, leading to a weak performance of ferrous metals. Affected by previous production restrictions, steel mill output and demand decreased, with accelerated inventory accumulation of rebar and increased hot - rolled coil inventory. After the steel mills resumed production on September 4, supply - demand pressure might intensify. However, cost support from the improved supply - demand structure of the cost side would limit the decline. With the release of the growth - stabilizing plan for the electronic information manufacturing industry on Friday, market expectations improved. Steel prices were expected to follow coking coal, with short - term fluctuations to find bottom support and wait for signals of improved peak - season demand. Iron ore was relatively strong in ferrous metals supported by the expectation of steel mill复产. Although iron ore prices dropped at the beginning of the week due to the decline in coking coal prices, the expectation of steel mill复产 and inventory replenishment was strong. Despite a significant drop in hot metal production this period, steel mills were expected to be motivated to produce with high profits. However, with weakening downstream steel demand, increasing inventory, and rising iron ore shipments, continuous upward movement of iron ore prices was under pressure, and it was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5]. Bull - Bear Focus Bull - Bear Factors for Rebar - Bull factors: improved manufacturing sentiment in August, rising expectation of Fed rate cuts, and the introduction of growth - stabilizing plans for ten industries. Bear factors: expected increase in production after steel mill复产, a significant drop in steel demand, and accelerated inventory accumulation of rebar and increased hot - rolled coil inventory [8]. Bull - Bear Factors for Iron Ore - Bull factors: improved manufacturing sentiment in August, rising expectation of Fed rate cuts, the introduction of growth - stabilizing plans for ten industries, and the expectation of inventory replenishment driven by steel mill复产. Bear factors: a significant drop in hot metal production, seasonal decline in downstream steel demand, and increasing iron ore shipments [11]. Data Analysis Rebar - Spot prices continued to decline, and the basis weakened. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was at a relatively high level [24][40]. Iron Ore - Spot prices were firm, and the basis converged to near par. Iron ore shipments globally and from Australia and Brazil, as well as arrivals at 45 ports, showed certain trends. Hot metal production of 247 steel enterprises decreased, and iron ore import inventory and consumption also had corresponding changes [43][46][52]. Market Outlook - Steel prices were expected to follow coking coal, with short - term fluctuations to find bottom support and wait for signals of improved peak - season demand. Iron ore was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term due to upward pressure from weakening downstream demand, increasing inventory, and rising shipments [59][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic supply side of aluminum has little change, with the operating capacity increasing steadily. As the seasonal off - season ends, downstream consumption shows signs of recovery. The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 61.7% this week, and the "Golden September" effect is gradually emerging. With the improvement of aluminum demand, the accumulation rate of aluminum ingot social inventory slows down. The peak season may continue to boost aluminum demand and support the trend of Shanghai aluminum. Shanghai aluminum is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average at 20600 [7]. - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is heating up, and the market focus is on this week's US non - farm payrolls data. In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from last month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing boom level [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: US employment data in August was weak, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut this month and weakening the US dollar index. The focus is on this week's US non - farm payrolls data. In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from last month, showing an improvement in the manufacturing boom level [6]. - **Main View**: Domestic aluminum supply has little change, while demand is recovering. The overall operating rate of downstream processing leading enterprises rose to 61.7%. The social inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots slows down. The peak season may boost aluminum demand and support Shanghai aluminum. Shanghai aluminum is oscillating, with support at the 60 - day moving average of 20600 [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shanghai aluminum is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average at 20600 [8]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Multi - factor**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is heating up; the "Golden September" is approaching, and consumption is expected to improve; the domestic spot discount narrows [11]. - **Empty - factor**: The price of alumina continues to be weak; the social inventory may continue to accumulate; the overseas spot premium increases [11]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Aluminum Bauxite**: From January to July 2025, China's aluminum bauxite output was 3583 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.21%. In July, the output was 543.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.42%. Affected by the rainy season in Guinea, the shipment volume of aluminum bauxite decreased, and it is expected that the import volume from Guinea will decline from August to October [19][24]. - **Alumina**: Recently, there have been maintenance on the supply side, but it has little impact on the total output. The operating capacity is still high, and the inventory is accumulating. The spot price is expected to continue the weak trend [28]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 3.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In August, the operating capacity increased slightly, and the output was 3.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. The growth space of production is limited [31]. - **Downstream Processing**: This week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 61.7%. It is expected that the operating rate will increase more widely in mid - September [38]. - **Downstream Demand**: In July 2025, China's aluminum product output was 5.484 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. The downstream demand is weak [42]. - **Automobile**: In July 2025, China's new energy vehicle output was 1.176 million, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%; the automobile output was 2.51 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. It is expected that automobile consumption will continue to grow [46]. - **Real Estate**: From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12.0%. The new housing construction area decreased by 19.4%, and the completed area decreased by 16.5%. Some cities have introduced real - estate optimization policies, and the real - estate market may change [51]. - **Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory is stable at 479,600 tons, while the SHFE aluminum inventory decreased last week, with a weekly increase of 0.795% to 125,596 tons. As of September 4, the social inventory of Chinese aluminum ingots was 620,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from Monday [54][58]. - **Spot Premium**: On September 4, the average price premium of Shanghai Wumao aluminum was - 10 yuan/ton, and the discount narrowed; the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium was 3.6 US dollars/ton, and the premium increased [62]. - **Recycled Aluminum**: In July, the output of recycled aluminum alloy was 624,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. It is expected that the output in August will decline. As of August 29, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry was 53.5%, a month - on - year increase of 0.4% [66][70]. - **Import and Export**: In July 2025, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.6%. The export volume was 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.5% [74]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: As of September 5, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 57,900 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from last week, and the in - plant inventory was 59,000 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons from last week [78]. 3.4后市研判 - **Aluminum Alloy**: The futures price of aluminum alloy follows the electrolytic aluminum futures and remains at a high level [81]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average at 20600 [85].