Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal supply is slightly loose, with mines accumulating inventory and washing plants and ports reducing inventory. Independent coking enterprises' willingness to replenish coking coal has weakened again, while steel mills have slightly replenished their coking coal inventory. Coke production has slightly declined, iron - water production still has room to fall, and the third round of coke price cuts has started. The double - coke market is affected by both policy and actual supply - demand. The policy is warming, but the actual supply is loose and demand is weak, and the market fluctuates within a range [5][32][35] Summary by Directory Report Summary - From January 1, 2026, Indonesia will levy export tariffs on coal, with the rate expected to be between 1% - 5% [5] - The new policy emphasizes and improves the benchmark level of the "coal washing" field, which will make the demand for high - quality coking raw coal more rigid and increase the compliance production cost of coking enterprises [5] - In 2025, global coal demand will reach a record high of 8.85 billion tons, an increase of 0.5%, but is expected to decline by 2030 [5] - The coking coal supply is slightly loose, mines are accumulating inventory, and washing plants and ports are reducing inventory. Independent coking enterprises' replenishment willingness has weakened, while steel mills have slightly replenished inventory. Coke production has slightly declined, iron - water production still has room to fall, and the third round of coke price cuts has started [5] - Recently, the domestic policy has been warming, and the double - coke futures market has rebounded, but the actual supply - demand situation restricts the rebound space. The winter - storage expectation of coking coal still exists [5] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: limited increase in domestic coking coal supply, and warming policies in the domestic demand sector [8] - Bearish factors: high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance, difficult inventory reduction of coking coal, and seasonal decline in iron - water and downstream demand pressure [8] Data Analysis - Coking coal supply: As of the week of December 19, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.62%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31%, and the daily output decreased by 0.75 tons to 75.75 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample washing plants was 37.68%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53%, and the daily output decreased by 0.63 tons to 27.29 tons. As of December 13, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu Port was 1.12887 million tons, remaining at a high level [10] - Coking coal inventory: As of the week of December 19, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.7277 million tons, an increase of 174,600 tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample washing plants was 3.2728 million tons, a decrease of 50,900 tons; the port coking coal inventory was 2.8617 million tons, a decrease of 213,300 tons [15] - Independent coking enterprises: As of December 19, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 10.3629 million tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons. The available inventory days were 12.37 days, an increase of 0.18 days. The coke inventory was 911,000 tons, an increase of 108,800 tons. The coking coal replenishment willingness has weakened [18] - Steel mills: As of December 19, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8.0499 million tons, an increase of 103,400 tons. The available inventory days were 13.02 days, an increase of 0.2 days. The coke inventory was 6.3373 million tons, a decrease of 15,500 tons, and the available days were 11.72 days, an increase of 0.06 days [22] - Coke production: As of December 19, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 72.05%, a decrease of 1.11% from the previous period, and the daily output of metallurgical coke was 630,000 tons, a decrease of 98,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.73%, a decrease of 0.22% from the previous period, and the daily coke output was 464,900 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons. Due to environmental protection restrictions in northern regions, the coking enterprises' production reduction range is 20% - 35% [24] - Coke consumption: As of the week of December 19, China's coke consumption was 1.0195 million tons, a decrease of 119,000 tons. The daily iron - water output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.2655 million tons, a decrease of 265,000 tons. Iron - water production is expected to continue to decline, and the subsequent demand for coke is limited [26] - Coke price cut: As of December 19, the average profit per ton of coke of independent coking enterprises was 16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton from the previous period. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 35.93%, the same as the previous period. Due to the firmness of raw material prices such as iron ore, steel enterprises' profit improvement is limited, and the third round of coke price cuts has started. Some steel mills in Xingtai, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, and Tangshan will lower the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton on December 22, 2025 [28] - Double - coke futures - spot basis structure: The coking coal futures market has stopped falling, and the coke market has recovered part of the price - cut range [30] 后市研判 - The domestic policy is warming, which stabilizes market sentiment and reverses the pessimistic expectation of unlimited coal supply growth. However, the actual supply - demand pattern is under pressure. The supply is loose, the downstream replenishment is weak, and the market fluctuates within a range between the "policy bottom" and the "demand ceiling" [32] - The core of the coke market logic is the interweaving of the "supply - demand double - weak" pattern caused by environmental protection restrictions and the "price game" under the profit squeeze of downstream steel mills. The coke price follows the cost - end coking coal and has limited upward elasticity [35]

橡胶周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2025-12-19 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 01 市场焦点 | 多方因素 | 空方因素 | | --- | --- | | 泰柬冲突影响供应预期，支撑海外端原料价格 | 天然橡胶库存去化有所不畅，小幅累库 | | 丁二烯库存压力有所缓解，支撑价格 | 顺丁橡胶产量高位，厂内库存去化不畅 | | | 轮胎库存去化不畅，拖累产能利用率 | 数据分析 PART 03 天然橡胶原料端价格稳中略偏强 ➢ 成本方面，12月18日，泰国地区胶水价格为55.8泰铢/千克，杯胶价格为51泰铢/千克，均较前期有所走强。国内海南 地区原料价格为13000元/吨。国内产区逐步停割胶价维持稳定，海外产区受泰国与柬埔寨边境紧张局势升级，引发了 市场对局部产区割胶作业及加工厂生产的担忧。尽管冲突区域并非核心产区，实际产量影响有限，但这一事件推动胶 价表现偏强，橡胶成本端存支撑。 数据分析 PART 03 天然橡胶整体小幅累库 基本面概况 本周天然橡胶盘面维持横盘震荡，合成橡胶表现 ...

02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-12-19 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | 摘 | 报 | 告 | 要 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-12-19 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | 告 | 摘 | 报 | 要 | A | 0 | 1 | P | R | T | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2025-12-12 中航期货 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 | 未 | 联 | 质 | 待。 | 好 | 体 | 持 | 度 | 万 | 出 | 并 | 提 | 美 | 适 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 整 | 入 | 9 | 利 | 多 | 对 | 但 | 是 | 为57. | 施 | 进 | 游 | 利 | 进、 | 多 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 这 | 跌， | 债。 | 实 | 未 | 观 | 下 | 弱， | 偏 | 求 | 续 | 暂 | 存 | 下 | 宏 | | ...

焦煤焦炭周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2025-12-12 目录 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 | 报告摘要 | 1. | 蒙古交通部部长表示，将就增加进入中国的运煤车辆数量进行磋商讨论。计划与'额尔登尼斯塔奔陶勒盖'公司合作，实现 | | --- | --- | --- | | | PART 01 | 每日运出15万吨煤炭的目标。预计到2027年，随着边境铁路的投入运营，煤矿直装运输量将增加，通过宽轨铁路过境，煤炭 | | | | 出口量有望达到3000万吨。届时，汽车运输量也将随之增长，预计到2027年，煤炭进口量将努力达到1亿吨。" | | | 2. | 中央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量， | | | | 灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技 | | 市场焦点 | | 创新、中小微企业等重点领域。着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重 ...

铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-12-12 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 01 市场焦点 （1）北京时间12月11日凌晨3点公布决议，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.50%-3.75%，这是美联 储在2025年内的第三次降息，自12月12日起启动 "储备管理购买"，首月购买约400亿美元短期国债。 （2）中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议强调，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质 增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。 宏观面，美联储如期开启年内第三次降息，并启动购债，鲍威尔讲话比预期鸽派，美元指数承压下跌，利好 风险资产。中央经济工作会议在定调明年经济工作，强调要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，要继续实施适度 宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，国内宏观情绪整体偏乐观。 供应方面，国内电解铝运行产能变化不大，产量增量有限。需求方面，12月虽处于传统消费 ...

铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-12-12 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 01 市场焦点 （1）北京时间12月11日凌晨3点公布决议，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.50%-3.75%，这是美联储 在2025年内的第三次降息，自12月12日起启动 "储备管理购买"，首月购买约400亿美元短期国债。 （2）中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议强调，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增 效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。 宏观面，美联储如期开启年内第三次降息，并启动购债，鲍威尔讲话比预期鸽派，美元指数承压下跌，利好风险 资产。中央经济工作会议在定调明年经济工作，强调要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，要继续实施适度宽松的货 币政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，国内宏观情绪整体偏乐观。 基本面，截至11月28日当周，SMM进口铜精矿指数(周)报价为-42.75美元/吨 ...

1. 2025年12月10日-12月16日期间，天然橡胶东南亚主产区降雨量较上一周期增加，赤道以北高降水量区域主要集中在 越南中部、泰国南部地区，其余大部分区域降水处于偏低状态，对割胶工作影响增强；赤道以南高降水量区域主要分 布在印尼中西部、马来西部等地区，其他大部分区域降雨量处于中等状态，对割胶工作影响增强。 本周天然橡胶震荡重心略有上移。从宏观角度看，本周美联储降息如期落地，国内政治局会议及中央经济工作回落陆续召 开，宏观面偏暖。从天然橡胶基本面看，国内外的天然橡胶原料价格呈现弱稳。国内市场对停割减产的交易情绪已基本消 化完毕，而东南亚主产区随着天气条件改善进入季节性旺产期，胶价有所承压。之后泰国与柬埔寨边境紧张局势升级，引 发了市场对局部产区割胶作业及加工厂生产的担忧。尽管冲突区域并非核心产区，实际产量影响有限，但这一事件推动胶 价止跌。目前下游需求有限，仍未改变天然橡胶总库存缓慢累积的趋势。从合成橡胶基本面看，原料丁二烯价格暂稳，本 周顺丁橡胶装置存在检修，国内高顺顺丁橡胶产量小幅下降。但下游需求受限，中间商出货持续承压。整体来看，橡胶盘 面缺乏突出矛盾，难以形成趋势行情，震荡为主。关注原料端价格变化 ...

铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-12-5 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | 摘 | 报 | 告 | 要 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...