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铝产业链周度报告-20251212
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 12:20
铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号:F0272984 投资咨询资格号:Z0011970 2025-12-12 中航期货 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 | 未 | 联 | 质 | 待。 | 好 | 体 | 持 | 度 | 万 | 出 | 并 | 提 | 美 | 适 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 整 | 入 | 9 | 利 | 多 | 对 | 但 | 是 | 为57. | 施 | 进 | 游 | 利 | 进、 | 多 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 这 | 跌, | 债。 | 实 | 未 | 观 | 下 | 弱, | 偏 | 求 | 续 | 暂 | 存 | 下 | 宏 | | ...
焦煤焦炭周度报告-20251212
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 10:42
焦煤焦炭周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号:F03122956 投资咨询号:Z0022861 中航期货 2025-12-12 目录 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 | 报告摘要 | 1. | 蒙古交通部部长表示,将就增加进入中国的运煤车辆数量进行磋商讨论。计划与'额尔登尼斯塔奔陶勒盖'公司合作,实现 | | --- | --- | --- | | | PART 01 | 每日运出15万吨煤炭的目标。预计到2027年,随着边境铁路的投入运营,煤矿直装运输量将增加,通过宽轨铁路过境,煤炭 | | | | 出口量有望达到3000万吨。届时,汽车运输量也将随之增长,预计到2027年,煤炭进口量将努力达到1亿吨。" | | | 2. | 中央经济工作会议指出,要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量, | | | | 灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具,保持流动性充裕,畅通货币政策传导机制,引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技 | | 市场焦点 | | 创新、中小微企业等重点领域。着力稳定房地产市场,因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给,鼓励收购存量商品房重 ...
中航期货铝产业链周度报告-20251212
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 10:42
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals have no significant contradictions, and the market is more influenced by macro - expectations. Wait for the adjustment opportunity after the macro - positive factors are exhausted, and it is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips [6][7][72]. Summary by Directory Report Summary - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75% on December 11, 2025, the third rate cut in 2025, and will start "Reserve Management Purchases" on December 12, with the first - month purchase of about $40 billion in short - term Treasury bonds. The central government emphasized a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy for 2026 [6]. - Domestically, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has changed little, and the output increase is limited. In December, although it is the traditional consumption off - season, the overall consumption has not declined significantly, with consumption resilience remaining. The aluminum - water ratio remains high, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not entered a continuous accumulation stage. As of December 11, the inventory was 579,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from Monday. The current low inventory level still supports aluminum prices [6]. Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The Fed's rate cut led to a decline in the US dollar index, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not entered continuous accumulation, and the overseas aluminum supply - demand remains tight [10]. - **Bearish factors**: December is the traditional consumption off - season [10]. Data Analysis - **Aluminum Bauxite**: In October 2025, the domestic output of aluminum bauxite was 4.7723 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. The supply in Henan has recovered, while that in Shanxi is still tight. In October, the import volume was 13.77 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.30% and a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. With the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the import volume is expected to increase [21][24]. - **Alumina**: In October, the output was 7.7853 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As of November 13, the operating capacity was 89.559 million tons/year, with the weekly operating rate dropping 0.81% to 81.18%. As of the end of November, the operating capacity was 96.6 million tons/year, a month - on - month increase of 200,000 tons/year [29]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October, the output increased by 1.13% year - on - year and 3.52% month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio increased by 1.4 percentage points to 77.7%. As of the end of October, the operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons, unchanged from the previous month. In November, production of some enterprises may be restricted by environmental protection policies [32]. - **Aluminum Processing**: The weekly operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 61.8%, continuing the weak off - season trend [34]. - **Inventory and Price**: As of December 11, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 579,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from Monday. The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly to 520,800 tons, while the SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 7.25% to 123,630 tons in the week of December 5. On December 11, the Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum average price premium was - 60 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium was - 28.51 US dollars/ton, with both premium ranges narrowing [44][48][52]. - **Recycled Aluminum**: In November, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 682,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,800 tons. As of December 5, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry was 61.5%, unchanged from the previous week. In October, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy decreased by 33.7% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 50.7% year - on - year. As of December 12, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 73,100 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous week, and the in - plant inventory was 58,100 tons, unchanged from the previous week [56][60][64][68]. Market Outlook - For aluminum alloy, the shortage of scrap aluminum is difficult to ease, with cost support remaining. The demand side has full orders during the peak season, and the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [70]. - The current fundamentals have no significant contradictions, and the market is more influenced by macro - expectations. Wait for the adjustment opportunity after the macro - positive factors are exhausted, and it is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips [72].
铜产业链周度报告-20251212
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 10:03
铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号:F0272984 投资咨询资格号:Z0011970 中航期货 2025-12-12 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 01 市场焦点 (1)北京时间12月11日凌晨3点公布决议,将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.50%-3.75%,这是美联储 在2025年内的第三次降息,自12月12日起启动 "储备管理购买",首月购买约400亿美元短期国债。 (2)中共中央政治局召开会议,分析研究2026年经济工作。会议强调,明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增 效,继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。 宏观面,美联储如期开启年内第三次降息,并启动购债,鲍威尔讲话比预期鸽派,美元指数承压下跌,利好风险 资产。中央经济工作会议在定调明年经济工作,强调要继续实施更加积极的财政政策,要继续实施适度宽松的货 币政策,灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具,国内宏观情绪整体偏乐观。 基本面,截至11月28日当周,SMM进口铜精矿指数(周)报价为-42.75美元/吨 ...
中航期货橡胶周度报告-20251212
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 09:57
Report Summary - The report is a weekly analysis of the rubber market from December 10 - 16, 2025, covering natural and synthetic rubber [6][7] - The rubber market is expected to be mainly in a state of oscillation due to a lack of prominent contradictions [7] - Attention should be paid to the impact of raw material price changes on the widening price difference between natural and synthetic rubber [7] Multi - Empty Focus Bullish Factors - Tire production capacity utilization rate remains stable [11] - The Thailand - Cambodia conflict affects supply expectations and supports raw material prices [11] Bearish Factors - Natural rubber inventory is slowly accumulating and difficult to deplete [11] - High production of cis - butadiene rubber and poor inventory depletion in factories [11] Data Analysis Natural Rubber Raw Material Prices - On December 11, the glue price in Thailand was 55.25 Thai baht/kg, and the raw material price in Hainan, China was 13,000 yuan/ton. Prices are weakly stable [12] Natural Rubber Inventory - As of December 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.123 million tons, a 1.9% increase. Dark rubber inventory increased by 2.4% to 730,000 tons, and light rubber inventory increased by 1% to 393,000 tons [15] Cis - Butadiene Rubber Raw Material and Profit - The domestic butadiene market price fluctuated within a range this week. As of December 11, the delivered price in the central Shandong region was 7,450 - 7,600 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in the East China region was 7,100 - 7,200 yuan/ton. The theoretical production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 728.1429 yuan/ton [16] Cis - Butadiene Rubber Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the weekly output of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises in China was 28,383 tons, a decrease of 1,142 tons. Factory inventory increased by 600 tons to 26,500 tons, and trader inventory increased by 220 tons to 5,450 tons [19] Tire Production Capacity Utilization - As of the week of December 12, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a 0.55% increase month - on - month and a 6.07% increase year - on - year. The average inventory available days were 40.58 days, a 1.07 - day increase month - on - month and a 1.38 - day decrease year - on - year [20] Rubber Contract Spread - As of December 11, the spread of the "RU - NR" near - month contract converged slightly, and the spread of the "NR - BR" main contract remained stable [22] Market Outlook - The fundamentals of natural rubber show weak and stable raw material prices, with supply pressure from the peak - season in Southeast Asia and limited downstream demand, leading to slow inventory accumulation [26] - For synthetic rubber, the price of butadiene is stable, and the output of cis - butadiene rubber decreased slightly due to equipment maintenance, but downstream demand is limited [26] - Overall, the rubber market lacks prominent contradictions and is expected to oscillate [26]
铝产业链周度报告-20251205
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 09:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current labor market in the United States is weak, and the decline in ADP employment data in November has further increased the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The economic sentiment in China is generally stable, and attention should be paid to the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. In the aluminum industry, the supply of domestic bauxite is tight, while the overseas supply may be relatively loose. The operating capacity of alumina is slightly decreasing at a high level, and the price may fluctuate at a low level. The production of electrolytic aluminum in October increased year - on - year, but the downstream processing start - up rate is decreasing. The inventory of domestic and foreign exchanges has declined, and the social inventory has slightly increased. In terms of the market outlook, it is recommended to be bullish on aluminum prices after the correction, and for aluminum alloy, wait for the opportunity to buy on the correction [5][11][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The latest ADP employment data shows that private enterprises in the United States reduced 32,000 jobs in November, the largest decline since March 2023, far lower than the market expectation of an increase of 10,000. The US manufacturing PMI index in November decreased by 0.5 points to 48.2, continuously below the boom - bust line of 50 for nine months, with the new order index and backlog orders showing significant contractions. Domestically, the economic sentiment is generally stable. In the aluminum industry, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum has little change, the supply side is stable, and the demand side shows a weakening trend. The start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has decreased, and the social inventory has slightly increased. It is recommended to be bullish on aluminum prices after the correction, paying attention to the results of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December and the subsequent interest rate cut path prediction [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum has little change; the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates is rising; the overseas aluminum supply - demand tension still exists [8]. - **Bearish factors**: The downstream's fear of high prices has resurfaced, and the social inventory has turned to a slight accumulation; the terminal market has entered the off - season [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Bauxite**: In October, the domestic bauxite output was 4.7723 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. The supply in Henan has gradually recovered, while that in Shanxi has not fully recovered, and the domestic supply remains tight. In October, China imported 13.77 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month decrease of 13.30% and a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. It is expected that the import volume will increase significantly in November [17][20]. - **Alumina**: In October, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina was 7.7853 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. The operating capacity is slightly decreasing at a high level, and the price may fluctuate at a low level due to factors such as profit compression and environmental protection control [24]. - **Electrolytic aluminum**: In October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.13% year - on - year and 3.52% month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio increased. In November, with the implementation of environmental protection policies, the production of some enterprises may be restricted, and the aluminum - water ratio is expected to decline slightly [27]. - **Downstream processing**: The weekly start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 61.9% this week, and it is expected to continue to weaken in the short term [31]. - **Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory has slightly decreased to 530,900 tons, and the SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 6.82% to 115,277 tons in the week of November 28. As of December 4, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major Chinese regions was 593,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from Monday this week [42][46]. - **Price**: On December 5, the average price of aluminum in Shanghai Wumao had a larger discount, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 spread also had a larger discount [50]. - **Recycled aluminum**: In October, the output of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 645,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons month - on - month. As of November 27, the start - up rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry was 61.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.9% [54][58]. - **Aluminum alloy trade**: In October 2025, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 76,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.1%. The export volume was 30,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.7% and a month - on - month increase of 31.5% [62]. - **Aluminum alloy inventory**: As of December 5, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 73,800 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from last week, and the in - plant inventory was 58,100 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from last week [67]. 3.4 Market Outlook Judgment - **Aluminum alloy**: Follow the trend of aluminum prices and wait for the opportunity to buy on the correction [68]. - **SHFE aluminum**: In the short term, aluminum prices are greatly affected by macro - sentiment. Pay attention to the results of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December and the subsequent interest rate cut path prediction. It is recommended to be bullish on aluminum prices after the correction [70].
铜产业链周度报告-20251205
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 09:24
铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号:F0272984 投资咨询资格号:Z0011970 中航期货 2025-12-5 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 | 报 | 告 | 摘 | 要 | P | A | R | T | 0 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...
焦煤焦炭周度报告-20251205
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 09:24
目录 焦煤焦炭周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号:F03122956 投资咨询号:Z0022861 中航期货 2025-12-05 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 01 1. 据百年建筑调研,截至12月2日,样本建筑工地资金到位率为59.49%,周环比下降0.07个百分点。其中,非房建项目资金到 位率为60.59%,周环比下降0.09个百分点;房建项目资金到位率为54.02%,周环比上升0.03个百分点。本期资金到位率下降, 主要拖累项目依旧为非房建项目,降幅较上周略微收窄,房建项目资金到位率环比增加,增速收窄。 本周双焦盘面维持横盘震荡,趋势性不明显。进入12月,焦煤主力完成换月,主力合约由2601切换至2605。从焦煤基本面看,本 周国内炼焦煤供应窄幅波动,但下游观望情绪浓厚,上游企业累库幅度较前期有所放大,短时间盘面交易现实压力。目前现货市 场较为僵持,整体成交表现一般,但由于今年春节时间较晚,补库时间有望后移,近月01合约博弈空间有限。受冬储预期影响, 远月05合约存阶段性反弹机会但空间力度有限,主要受制于钢材产业链利润承压。关注寒冬天气以及12月会议带来 ...
中航期货橡胶周度报告-20251205
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 09:17
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - From Dec 3 - 9, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased slightly compared to the previous period, affecting rubber tapping. The rubber market maintained a weak and volatile trend this week. There was a divergence in the raw material markets at home and abroad. Overseas raw material prices declined due to increased supply, while domestic prices were firm as the domestic producing areas entered the suspension period. However, limited downstream demand led to a slow accumulation of total natural rubber inventory. The synthetic rubber market also lacked strong support. Overall, the rubber market lacked prominent contradictions and was mainly volatile. Attention should be paid to the impact of raw material price changes on the widening price difference between natural and synthetic rubber [6][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Differentiated prices of domestic and foreign natural rubber raw materials**: On Dec 4, the glue price in Thailand was 55.5 Thai baht/kg, while in Yunnan and Hainan in China, it was 13,900 yuan/ton and 13,100 yuan/ton respectively. Overseas raw material prices fell due to increased supply after floods receded, while domestic prices were firm as supply tightened [11]. - **Slight accumulation of natural rubber inventory**: As of Nov 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.102 million tons, a 2.1% increase. The inventory in Qingdao bonded area and general trade also increased. The inbound and outbound rates of warehouses changed [14]. - **Weak operation of butadiene price and stable production profit of enterprises**: This week, the domestic butadiene market first rose and then fell, remaining in a volatile range. The price increase was short - lived due to loose supply and limited downstream acceptance. As of Dec 4, the prices in Shandong and East China were within certain ranges. As of Dec 5, the theoretical production profit of cis - polybutadiene rubber was 672.7143 yuan/ton, remaining stable [15]. - **Poor inventory clearance of cis - polybutadiene rubber in factories**: As of Dec 5, 2025, the weekly output of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber enterprises in China was 29,524 tons, a 1,341 - ton increase. Factory inventory increased by 200 tons, while trader inventory decreased by 310 tons. High production but weak downstream trading led to poor inventory clearance [18]. - **Weak and stable overall tire production capacity utilization rate**: As of the week of Dec 5, the production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a 1.25% increase, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a 2.33% increase. The inventory days of sample enterprises changed. Although some enterprises resumed production after maintenance, the overall production capacity utilization rate did not return to normal levels due to sales pressure and new maintenance arrangements [19]. - **Differentiated price difference trends of the three rubber contracts on the disk**: As of Dec 4, the price difference of the "RU - NR" January contract fluctuated, and the price difference of the "NR - BR" main contract converged as synthetic rubber was stronger than natural rubber during the week due to butadiene exports [21]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The raw material price of natural rubber in domestic producing areas has support [10]. - **Bearish factors**: The inventory clearance of natural rubber is poor, with a slight accumulation; the production of cis - polybutadiene rubber is at a high level, and the inventory clearance in factories is poor; the raw material price support of natural rubber in overseas producing areas is weak [10]. 3.3后市研判 - The natural rubber market has a supply - cost divergence at home and abroad, and limited downstream demand leads to inventory accumulation. The synthetic rubber market lacks strong cost support. Overall, the rubber market is mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of raw material price changes on the price difference between natural and synthetic rubber [25].
原油月报:“和平方案”陷入拉锯,盘面延续宽幅震荡-20251128
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 11:25
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ suspending the production increase plan in Q1 2026 will relieve supply - side pressure to some extent, but supply surplus will remain the main trading logic as demand enters the off - season. Geopolitical factors will cause fluctuations in the oil price. The market is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation, and it is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $55 - $65 per barrel [51] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In November, the crude oil market showed a weak and oscillating pattern under the game of long and short factors. At the beginning of the month, the suspension of the production increase plan in Q1 2026 by OPEC+ and sanctions on Russian oil companies supported the oil price. However, in the middle and late of the month, the weakening global crude oil outlook in the OPEC+ monthly report and the rising expectation of geopolitical easing suppressed the market, and the supply surplus expectation was the main trading logic [7] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **OPEC+ Production Policy**: OPEC+ will increase production in December and suspend production increase in Q1 2026. Eight countries will increase the production quota by 137,000 barrels per day in December. The suspension of production increase can relieve supply pressure in the short - term, but OPEC+ still aims to compete for market share through production increase in the long - term [11][12] - **OPEC Monthly Report**: OPEC's expectation for the global crude oil market has shifted from balance to surplus, with a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day currently compared to a previous shortage expectation of 400,000 barrels per day. The supply growth expectation of non - OPEC countries in 2025 has been raised by 110,000 barrels per day, and the demand for OPEC crude oil in 2026 has been lowered [12][15] - **Fed's Interest Rate Expectation**: Fed officials have made dovish statements, and the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December has risen to 85%. The labor market shows a "split" situation, and the Fed's latest "Beige Book" indicates that consumer spending decline is the main drag on the US economy [13] - **Geopolitical Factors**: A 28 - point peace plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict was proposed, then reduced to 19 points. Trump said the peace agreement was "very close to being reached", but Russia believes the 19 - point plan does not meet its interests. Short - term geopolitical easing expectation has risen, but there are still large differences between the two sides [14] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **OPEC Production**: In October, OPEC's crude oil production was 28.46 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ production in October was 43.02 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 73,000 barrels per day. The supply - side pressure has increased significantly as demand enters the off - season [17] - **US Crude Oil Production**: As of November 21, the US weekly EIA crude oil production was 13.814 million barrels per day, an increase of 170,000 barrels per day compared to the same period last month. Supported by technological progress and policy, US crude oil production is expected to remain stable, but the growth rate will slow down [20] - **US Oil Drilling Rigs**: As of November 21, the total number of US oil drilling rigs was 419, an increase of 2 compared to the previous statistical period and the same as the same period last month. It is expected to remain at a low level [22] - **Demand Side** - **US Manufacturing**: In October, the US ISM manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.7, while the Chicago PMI rebounded. The contraction of the manufacturing industry has restricted crude oil demand to some extent [24] - **US Refinery Utilization Rate**: As of November 21, the US refinery utilization rate was 92.3%, a month - on - month increase of 5.7 percentage points. It is expected to boost crude oil consumption seasonally [28] - **China's Manufacturing**: In October, China's manufacturing PMI decreased and remained below the boom - bust line, with weak demand and significant differentiation between supply and demand. Small and medium - sized enterprises face greater pressure [36] - **China's Refinery Utilization Rate**: As of November 20, the utilization rate of domestic major refineries was 75.69%, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points compared to the same period last month. The utilization rate of local independent refineries was 62.97%, an increase of 1.62 percentage points. Overall, domestic crude oil consumption faces short - term weakening pressure [40] - **Inventory** - **US EIA Crude Oil Inventory**: As of November 21, the US weekly EIA crude oil inventory was 2.774 million barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 498,000 barrels. With the increase in refinery utilization rate and the slowdown in production growth, the inventory is expected to decline seasonally [45] - **Cushing Crude Oil Inventory and Gasoline Inventory**: As of November 21, the EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was - 68,000 barrels, and the gasoline inventory was 2.099 million barrels. The Cushing inventory has remained stable at a low level in recent years, and the oil inventory has entered the accumulation stage [49]