Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures market oscillated upward, partially recovering from last week's decline. The trading volume of the main coking coal contract increased significantly, with a weekly increase of 12.31%. Currently, the divergence between long and short sides has intensified, and the market volatility has expanded. From the fundamental perspective, as the inventory pressure at the Ganqimao Port eases, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal continues to rise, while the domestic supply is affected by weather and production restrictions, with limited room for output growth. The inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises has changed from continuous replenishment for a month to destocking. The downstream replenishment pace has slowed down, and the upstream inventory depletion rate has decreased. However, as the overall inventory is lower than that of the same period last year, the upstream inventory pressure of coking coal has been significantly reduced. This week, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased, making it difficult to force active production cuts. Although the molten iron output has slightly declined, it remains at a high level, supporting the consumption of coke. At present, the spot market is cautious in following up, and the short - term upward momentum of prices has slowed down, with high - level oscillations for digestion [6][33]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Report Summary - From August 4th to 6th, the power consumption load in the operating area of the State Grid Corporation reached a record high for three consecutive days, with the maximum load reaching 1.233 billion kilowatts, an increase of 53 million kilowatts compared to the extreme value of 1.18 billion kilowatts last year [5]. - This week, the double - coking futures market oscillated upward, with the trading volume of the main coking coal contract increasing significantly. The divergence between long and short sides has intensified, and the market volatility has expanded. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is rising, while the domestic supply growth is limited. The downstream replenishment pace has slowed down, but the upstream inventory pressure has been reduced. The molten iron output remains high, and the consumption of coke is supported. The spot market is cautious, and the price upward momentum has slowed down [6]. - The newly revised "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" will be implemented on February 1, 2026. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. As of August 5th, the sample construction site capital availability rate was 58.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points [7]. Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The coking coal inventory is lower than that of last year, reducing inventory pressure; there is an expected decrease in coking coal supply; the molten iron output is at a high level, supporting demand [10]. - **Bearish factors**: The downstream replenishment pace of coking coal has slowed down; the import volume of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing [10]. Data Analysis - **Coking coal supply**: The domestic supply of coking coal has limited room for growth, while the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is rising. The operating rate of 523 sample mines decreased by 2.42% week - on - week, and the daily average output of clean coal decreased by 21,700 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants increased by 1.19% week - on - week, and the daily output increased by 5,900 tons. As of August 2nd, the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimao Port was 927,450 tons [14]. - **Coking coal upstream inventory**: As of the week of August 8th, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines decreased by 26,000 tons, while that of 110 sample coal washing plants increased by 21,000 tons. The port inventory decreased by 47,700 tons. The downstream replenishment pace has slowed down, but the overall inventory is lower than that of last year [15]. - **Coking enterprise inventory**: As of August 8th, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises decreased by 48,100 tons, and the available days decreased by 0.11 days. The coke inventory decreased by 38,900 tons. The coking coal inventory has changed from continuous replenishment to destocking [18]. - **Steel enterprise inventory**: As of August 8th, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises increased by 48,700 tons, and the available days increased by 0.12 days. The coke inventory decreased by 74,100 tons, and the available days decreased by 0.26 days. Steel enterprises continue to replenish coking coal slightly but destock coke [22]. - **Coke output**: As of August 8th, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises increased by 0.34%, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke increased by 2,900 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 0.32%, and the daily coke output decreased by 1,700 tons. Overall, the coke output has changed little [24]. - **Molten iron output and coke demand**: As of the week of August 8th, China's coke consumption decreased by 1,800 tons, and the daily average molten iron output decreased by 3,900 tons. The profitability rate of steel enterprises increased to 68.4%, making it difficult to force active production cuts. Although the molten iron output has slightly declined, it remains high, supporting coke demand [27]. - **Coke price increase**: As of the week of August 8th, the average loss per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises was 16 yuan/ton, which improved significantly compared to last week. The fifth round of coke price increase was fully implemented, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for dry - quenched coke in Hebei, Shandong and other places starting from 0:00 on August 4th. The implementation by steel enterprises was delayed compared to the price increase proposed by coking enterprises [28]. - **Double - coking far - month basis structure**: The spot price increase has slowed down [30]. Market Outlook - The trading volume of the main coking coal contract increased significantly, and the divergence between long and short sides has intensified. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is rising, while the domestic supply growth is limited. The downstream replenishment pace has slowed down, but the upstream inventory pressure has been reduced. The molten iron output remains high, and the consumption of coke is supported. The spot market is cautious, and the price upward momentum has slowed down [33]. - The sixth round of coke price increase has started. Some coking enterprises have issued price increase notices, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamping wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamping dry - quenched coke starting from August 11th. As the frequency of price increases accelerates, the acceptance of steel enterprises has gradually decreased, and the game between steel and coking enterprises has intensified. In the short term, the coke futures market is significantly affected by coking coal [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the asphalt market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The weekly production and operating rate on the supply - side have decreased, and the shipment volume on the demand - side has slightly declined. The decline in factory inventory is lower than the production decline, indicating poor sales from refineries, and the social inventory has slightly increased, showing weak downstream demand. Regarding crude oil, due to the proposed meeting between the US and Russian presidents, the previous premium caused by supply - tightening concerns has rapidly declined. The lower - than - expected US non - farm data in July and the significant downward revision of May and June data have raised concerns about the weakening US economy. OPEC+'s continued production increase has strengthened the expectation of supply surplus in the fourth quarter, causing oil prices to weaken this week. In the short term, crude oil lacks positive support, and oil prices are expected to find a new bottom. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of asphalt is not prominent, and crude oil fluctuations will dominate the market trend. It is recommended to track geopolitical changes and pay attention to the matching degree between refinery production schedules and the progress of terminal projects. It is advisable to focus on the BU2510 contract in the range of 3400 - 3550 yuan/ton and try to short on rebounds [7][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Abstract - Key market events include the proposed meeting between the US and Russian presidents weakening market sentiment, the lower - than - expected US non - farm data in July with significant downward revisions of May and June data, and OPEC+ announcing a production increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September [6]. - Key data shows that as of August 6, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 31.7%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the previous statistical period; as of August 8, the weekly asphalt production was 558,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 679,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from the previous week; and the social inventory was 1.367 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from the previous week. The trading strategy is to focus on the BU2510 contract in the range of 3400 - 3550 yuan/ton and short on rebounds [7]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt are low factory inventory and marginal macro - improvement; bearish factors are lower - than - expected demand and downward cost - side drivers [10]. 3.3 Macro Analysis - **US - Russia Relations**: Trump threatened to impose sanctions on Russia, which initially supported oil prices. Then, the US Middle East envoy visited Russia and promoted high - level meetings, easing market tensions and causing the risk premium to decline. The proposed meeting between the US and Russian presidents has weakened market sentiment, and short - term oil price trading will return to fundamentals, with news - based factors dominating short - term trends [11]. - **US Non - farm Data**: The US non - farm employment data in July was lower than expected, with an increase of 73,000 jobs compared to the expected 104,000, the smallest increase since last October. The data for May and June were significantly revised downward, with a total reduction of 258,000 jobs. This has raised concerns about the weakening US economy and put pressure on oil prices. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has increased from 45% to 75% [14]. - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting from September 2025. The market has already priced in this increase, and the key lies in the speed and scale of the production increase. It is expected to be fully implemented by the end of the fourth quarter. OPEC+ still has about 3.65 million barrels per day of production cuts that can be restored, and attention should be paid to whether a new round of production increase will be launched [18]. 3.4 Data Analysis - **Supply**: As of August 8, the weekly asphalt production was 558,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from the previous week. The increase in refinery maintenance plans led to a slight decline in production. In the third quarter, the terminal rush - work demand may stimulate refineries to increase the operating rate, and the weekly production has the potential for seasonal recovery. As of August 6, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 31.7%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the previous statistical period, mainly due to some refineries adjusting production plans and seasonal demand disturbances [19][28]. - **Demand**: As of August 8, the weekly asphalt shipment volume was 418,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week. The recent shipment volume has been around 410,000 tons, 30,000 tons lower than in June. The demand has weakened due to rainfall, and it is expected to rebound after the rain stops. The capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt was 15.87% as of August 8, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points from the previous week [29][32]. - **Import and Export**: In June, the domestic asphalt import was 375,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons (5.51%) and a year - on - year increase of 32.56%. The cumulative import from January to June was 1.725 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.53%. In June, the domestic asphalt export was 29,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,600 tons, and the cumulative export from January to June was 279,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 53.36% [39][42]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 679,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from the previous week. The decline in factory inventory was lower than the production decline, indicating poor sales from refineries. The social inventory was 1.367 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from the previous week, mainly due to the impact of typhoon and rainfall in the southern region on asphalt demand [53][60]. - **Spread**: As of August 8, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing dilution was - 604 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.3 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of August 6, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 54.91, and as of August 7, the asphalt basis was 197 yuan/ton. The asphalt cracking spread has recovered, mainly because the asphalt market is stronger than crude oil due to the significant decline in oil prices, and the weakening of asphalt futures prices has strengthened the basis [67].

螺矿产业链月报 汪楠 从业资格号：F3069002 投资咨询号：Z0017123 中航期货 2025-8-1 04 后市研判 目录 01 行情回顾 03 供需分析 02 宏观分析 行情PA回RT顾01 钢材：本月现货价格修复，基差走阔 行情PA回RT顾01 铁矿：现货价格上涨，基差进一步收敛 美国与贸易伙伴谈判取得进展，但后续仍存不确定性 宏观PA分RT析02 Ø 美国与贸易伙伴谈判取得进展，预期乐观：当地时间7月7日，美国总统特朗普签署行政命令，延长所谓"对等关税"暂缓期，将实施时间 从7月9日推迟到8月1日。美国将对等关税推迟至8月1日，市场预期美国及其贸易伙伴之间将达成贸易协议，这提振了风险情绪。 Ø 美国总统特朗普在社交平台宣布，美国分别与菲律宾和印尼达成了贸易协定。特朗普称，将菲律宾商品关税从20%下调至19%。菲律宾将对 美国开放市场，并实行零关税。印尼将对美国取消99%的关税壁垒。而印尼出口到美国的所有产品则需缴纳19%的关税。此外，印尼将向美国供 应其珍贵的关键矿产，并签署价值数百亿美元的重大协议，采购波音飞机、美国农产品和美国能源。特朗普表示，将对世界其他大部分国家征 收15%至50%的简单 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Alumina**: The operating capacity continues to rise, and the daily output reaches new highs, leading to an expected increase in overall supply and a persistent oversupply outlook. Although consumption also increases to some extent, the increment is relatively limited. Short - term spot prices may remain firm due to local supply shortages, but with the cooling of speculative sentiment driven by policy expectations, domestic alumina prices are likely to weaken. Attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts, overseas mine disturbances, and the specific measures of the new round of the "Ten Key Industries Stable Growth Work Plan" [6]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: On the supply side, there is only a small net increase in addition to replacement capacity. On the demand side, different sectors show obvious differentiation. The automotive industry will still be the main driving force for aluminum demand in August, while photovoltaic demand weakens slightly, and aluminum use in real estate and home appliances exerts a certain drag. Apparent consumption is expected to decline year - on - year from July to August, but there are expectations for the consumption peak season in September. It is predicted that aluminum ingot inventories will reach the peak of off - season inventory accumulation in the range of 560,000 - 600,000 tons around mid - August. In the short term, affected by the further decline in the September interest - rate cut expectation and the fall in alumina futures prices, aluminum prices are weak, with a support level at 20,000. In the long run, factors such as low inventory and supply constraints support an upward shift in the price center. Buying on dips is recommended [6]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The price of scrap aluminum remains high. Affected by the US tariff on aluminum and the exemption of scrap aluminum, the import of US scrap aluminum increases. Coupled with Thailand's suspension of issuing licenses to recycling factories, China's scrap aluminum imports may decline in the future, and scrap aluminum prices still have room to rise, strongly supporting the aluminum alloy price. The fundamentals of casting aluminum alloy are good, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock. The futures market generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and the price difference between the two is basically between 350 - 500 yuan/ton. When the price difference widens, an arbitrage operation of going long on aluminum alloy and short on Shanghai aluminum can be considered [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **3.1 Market Review (Part 02)** - In July, alumina futures prices fluctuated greatly, showing a trend of rising first and then falling, reaching a maximum of 3,577 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 7.94%. Electrolytic aluminum futures also showed a similar trend but with a smaller increase, operating in the range of 20,200 - 21,000 [8][9]. **3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects (Part 03)** - **Tariff Situation**: China and the US extended the tariff for 90 days, and short - term tariff disturbances subsided. The US announced a new version of "reciprocal tariffs" for multiple countries and regions, with the base rate remaining at 10%, and most countries having rates within 20% except Canada [12][13]. - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, and Powell's attitude was hawkish. Two Fed governors opposed maintaining the interest rate and supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July. The Fed is still weighing the impact of tariffs on inflation and employment, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut expectation may further decline due to strong US economic and employment data [15][17][19]. - **US Economic Data**: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. In July, the ADP employment increased by 104,000. The second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate increased by 3%. The core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year in June. The strong economic and employment data indicate that there is still a risk of inflation rising, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut expectation may be further adjusted downward [19]. - **Domestic Economic Situation**: China's second - quarter GDP annual rate was 5.2%, and the first - half GDP increased by 5.3% year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, national fixed - asset investment was 24.8654 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points seasonally. The Politburo meeting emphasized that macro - policies should continue to exert force in the second half of the year, and a series of policies are expected to support industrial product prices [25]. **3.3 Fundamental Aspects (Part 04)** - **Bauxite Supply**: Domestic bauxite supply is relatively loose despite some disturbances. In June 2025, domestic bauxite production was 5.1933 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 203,600 tons. In July, production in some regions was restricted by rainfall. In Guinea, although some mines resumed production, the rainy - season impact led to a decline in July's bauxite shipments. However, China's bauxite imports increased significantly in the first half of the year, and port inventories also increased, so the import price is expected to have limited rebound [27][32]. - **Alumina Supply and Demand**: As of late July, the national alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, and the operating capacity was 94.95 million tons, reaching a new high for the year. In June, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina and imported 101,000 tons. The supply is expected to remain in an oversupply situation. Low warehouse receipts support alumina futures prices, but attention should be paid to the changes in speculative sentiment [35][37][39]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum maintains high profits, with an expected profit of over 3,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year. The supply may increase slightly, but overall changes are not significant. Overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity has no obvious changes recently, and if all overseas capacity is put into production as scheduled, the output growth rate is expected to reach 3% - 5% from 2026 - 2027 [42][45][50]. - **Downstream Consumption**: - **Processing Enterprises**: The average weekly operating rate of processing enterprises decreased by 0.1% to 58.7%. Different sectors show different trends, and the aluminum foil sector may reduce production in August. The aluminum cable sector is expected to recover in the second half of August [54]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: In June, the newly - installed photovoltaic capacity decreased, but the power grid investment is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan in 2025, driving the demand for aluminum rods [59]. - **Real Estate**: The demand for aluminum in the real estate sector remains weak. From January to June, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and various indicators such as new construction area and completion area also declined [62]. - **Automotive Industry**: From January to June, automobile production and sales increased by 12.5% and 11.4% year - on - year respectively, and new - energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively. The automotive industry is expected to continue to drive aluminum consumption growth [66]. - **Home Appliances**: In August, the total production plan of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased by 4.9% year - on - year. Although the production plan of air conditioners still shows a year - on - year decline, the decline is expected to narrow [70]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventories have rebounded to a more than three - and - a - half - month high, and SHFE aluminum inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks. Aluminum ingot social inventories are accumulating, but the increase is within the seasonal range, and the current inventory level is still relatively low [73][76]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The scrap aluminum procurement market is tight. The price is supported by factors such as import restrictions, limited domestic supply growth, and concentrated procurement by large enterprises. The price is expected to rise, and the price difference between domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy is positive and at a relatively high level [80][83].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips in August and maintaining this strategy in the medium to long term [6][7] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, copper prices are under pressure due to the implementation of copper tariffs (excluding electrolytic copper) and the decline in the expectation of a September interest rate cut. However, with the expectation of two interest rate cuts this year and the tight supply of copper mines throughout the year, copper prices are supported. In the long run, as tariffs ease and the market expects interest rate cuts in Q3, liquidity will gradually ease the upper - limit pressure on metals, and the tight supply of copper mines will also support copper prices [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook (PART 01) - In August, maintain the strategy of buying on dips. The exclusion of electrolytic copper from the 50% copper tariff on August 1 may lead to the outflow of US electrolytic copper and accelerate the supply - demand balance in non - US regions. The Fed's inaction in July, combined with strong US economic and employment data and the risk of rising inflation, has further reduced the expectation of a September interest rate cut, which suppresses copper prices. In the medium to long term, as tariffs ease and the market expects interest rate cuts in Q3, there are still expectations of two interest rate cuts this year, which will gradually ease the upper - limit pressure on metals. The tight supply of copper mines throughout the year also supports copper prices. Although copper prices are currently in short - term adjustment with a support level of 77,000, the medium - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips is maintained [6][7] 2. Market Review (PART 02) - In July, copper prices were generally in a high - level consolidation. From late June to early July, due to the expectation that the "232" policy might be implemented in September or October, the shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions intensified, and copper prices rose. On July 3, Shanghai copper reached 80,990 yuan/ton, equivalent to the integer mark of 10,000 US dollars/ton for London copper. On July 8, the US announced a 50% tariff on copper, and copper prices fell from the high. In late July, the "anti - involution" trend in multiple industries and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station project boosted market sentiment, and copper prices reached 80,000 yuan/ton again. However, the "anti - involution" had limited impact on the non - ferrous supply, and the downstream acceptance of high prices was poor. After the sentiment subsided, copper prices returned to the fundamentals [8][9] 3. Macroeconomic Factors (PART 03) - **Tariff Policy**: The Sino - US tariff extension for 90 days has temporarily reduced tariff disturbances. The US announced a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivative products from August 1, excluding copper input materials and copper scrap. This led to a sharp decline in New York copper futures and related ETFs. Although electrolytic copper is excluded from the tariff, there is still long - term uncertainty as the US may consider imposing tariffs on electrolytic copper from 2027 [13][17] - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% in July, which was in line with market expectations. Two Fed governors voted against maintaining the interest rate, supporting a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in July. The strong US economic and employment data and the risk of rising inflation have reduced the expectation of a September interest rate cut [20][22] - **Domestic Economy**: China's Q2 GDP annual rate was 5.2%, and the first - half GDP increased by 5.3% year - on - year. Fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% year - on - year in the first half of the year, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. The Politburo meeting in July emphasized the need for macro - policies to continue to be effective in the second half of the year, release domestic demand potential, and promote high - level opening - up. The "anti - involution" policy and the acceleration of the implementation of growth - stabilizing policies may support industrial product prices [27] - **Policy Impact on Supply and Demand**: From the supply side, policies will guide the copper smelting industry to control production capacity, which is expected to restore TC/RC processing fees and ease the contradiction between mining and smelting. From the demand side, the "anti - involution" series of policies focus on promoting stable growth in the manufacturing industry, which will boost the downstream demand for copper. In the long run, the supply - demand mismatch may further push up the copper price center [29] 4. Fundamental Factors (PART 04) - **Supply Side** - **Copper Ore Import**: In June, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.3497 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 1.77%. The supplies from Chile and Peru, the top two suppliers, continued to decline, with Peru's supply dropping by about 15%. The long - term processing fees negotiated between domestic smelters and overseas mines this year are zero, and the spot processing fees in the domestic market remain low, indicating that the tight supply of copper mines is difficult to ease in the short term [30] - **Copper Ore Processing Fees**: As of the week of July 25, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 42.98 dollars/dry ton, up 0.22 dollars/dry ton from the previous week. The spot market for copper concentrates is less active, and processing fees are "stable with a slight correction" [34] - **Refined Copper Inventory**: Affected by the "232" tariff policy, the rush to import copper since April has led to a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions. However, as the policy expectation is fulfilled, LME copper inventory has increased. As of July 25, LME copper inventory reached 128,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons from the end of June. COMEX copper inventory is also increasing [38] - **Electrolytic Copper Production**: In the first half of 2025, China's electrolytic copper production reached a new high. From January to June, the cumulative production was 6.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 674,700 tons or 11.40%. The estimated production in July was 1.1504 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. Although smelting is in a loss stage, the willingness to cut production actively is not strong [42] - **Scrap Copper Import**: In June, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year increase of 8.49%. The supply from Thailand, the new largest scrap copper supplier, continued to increase, while the supply from the US dropped significantly due to tariff policies. However, due to the adjustment of the smelting raw material structure, domestic smelters' demand for scrap copper has increased, and the increased supply from other countries has made up for the shortfall [45] - **Demand Side** - **Power Sector**: As of the end of June, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18%. The solar power installed capacity was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in June decreased significantly after the "5.31 rush - to - install" period. In 2025, the investment in the national power grid is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time. From January to June, the cumulative investment in the power grid was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The power supply project investment also increased significantly. However, affected by the off - season and high copper prices, the wire and cable operating rate in June dropped to 72.41% [49] - **Real Estate Sector**: In the first half of 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. The new construction area, completion area, and other indicators all declined. Although real estate sales are basically stable and inventories are decreasing, the demand for copper in the real estate sector remains weak [53] - **Automobile Sector**: From January to June, automobile production and sales increased by 12.5% and 11.4% year - on - year respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively. The export of automobiles and new energy vehicles also increased significantly. With the implementation of relevant policies and the rich supply of new products, the increase in automobile production will drive copper consumption [57] - **Home Appliance Sector**: In June 2025, the national air - conditioner production was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The cumulative production from January to June was 163.296 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. In August, the total production plan for air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. Although the production plan for air - conditioners in August still decreased year - on - year, the decline was expected to narrow compared with the previous month [58]

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Monthly Report (July 2025) [2] - Author: Fan Ling - Report Date: August 1, 2025 - Institution: AVIC Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is influenced by multiple factors including macro - economic conditions, supply - demand dynamics of raw materials and finished products, and downstream consumption trends. The overall market shows a complex and volatile situation. In the short - term, the aluminum price may fluctuate within a certain range, with support at 20,000 yuan/ton. Long - term trends depend on the implementation of policies, the recovery of downstream consumption, and the balance of supply and demand [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In July, the alumina futures price fluctuated greatly, showing a trend of rising first and then falling, with a maximum of 3,577 yuan/ton and a monthly increase of 7.94%. The electrolytic aluminum futures also showed a similar trend but with a smaller increase, operating in the range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton [6][7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects - **Tariff Situation**: China and the US extended the tariff for 90 days, and short - term tariff disturbances subsided. The US announced a new version of "reciprocal tariffs" with a base rate of 10%, and most countries' rates are within 20% [9][10]. - **US Economic Data**: US economic and employment data are strong, with inflation still at risk of rising. The strong economic fundamentals make the mutual exclusivity of a strong economy and interest rate cuts gradually apparent, and the expectation of a September interest rate cut may be further reduced [13][14]. - **Domestic Economy**: The domestic economy is generally stable, and there is an expectation for the accelerated implementation of stable - growth policies. The manufacturing PMI and GDP growth rate show certain trends, and the government has introduced a series of policies to promote economic development [17]. 3.3 Supply - Side Analysis - **Bauxite Supply**: Domestic bauxite supply is disturbed but relatively loose. In Guinea, although some mines resumed production, the rainy season affected the shipment volume in July. However, the large increase in imports in the first half of the year and high available inventory, along with the resumption of production in previously shut - down mines, make the price of imported bauxite expected to have limited rebound [20][24]. - **Alumina Supply**: The expectation of alumina supply surplus remains unchanged. As of late July, the national alumina production capacity and operating capacity increased, and the operating capacity reached a new high for the year. The increase in production capacity is mainly due to the expansion of a medium - sized alumina enterprise in Shandong. In the future, with the commissioning of alumina production capacity in Indonesia and the possible opening of the import window, the import volume of alumina may increase [25][27]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Supply**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum continues to maintain high profits. The utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum production capacity is significantly higher than that of upstream alumina and downstream aluminum products industries, and the supply is rigid. The utilization rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has exceeded 95%, and new production capacity is limited in the future due to the capacity ceiling. The production of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased in the first half of the year, and some capacity replacement projects were put into operation in July [32][36]. - **Overseas Electrolytic Aluminum Supply**: The overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity has no significant change recently. The 50 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of PT KALIMANTAN in Indonesia will be put into production in stages, with 10 tons expected to be put into production in 2025 and full production in 2027. If all overseas production capacity is put into operation as scheduled, the production growth rate is expected to reach 3% - 5% in 2026 - 2027 [38][39]. 3.4 Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Processing**: The average operating rate of downstream processing enterprises decreased slightly. Different sectors have different trends. For example, the aluminum foil sector has a production - reduction expectation in August, and the building materials sector continues to be in the off - season. The aluminum cable sector is expected to recover in the second half of August, while the terminal consumption of primary and secondary aluminum alloy sectors is difficult to improve significantly in August [41][42]. - **Real Estate Demand**: The demand for aluminum in the real estate industry is still weak. The new construction area, completion area, and investment in real estate development all decreased year - on - year in the first half of the year, and the real estate sector is still in the process of destocking [46][48]. - **Automobile Industry Demand**: The use of aluminum in the automobile industry will maintain a high - growth trend. In the first half of the year, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased year - on - year. Although the new - energy vehicle industry faces some growth - slowdown pressure, multiple favorable factors in the second half of the year will help drive automobile consumption growth, which will also drive the demand for aluminum [49][51]. - **Home Appliance Industry Demand**: The production schedule of home appliances is still decreasing year - on - year, but the decline in August is expected to narrow. The production schedule of air - conditioners in August decreased compared with the same period last year, but the decline rate has converged. High - temperature weather and replacement subsidies have promoted the sales of air - conditioners and reduced the inventory [52][54]. 3.5 Inventory Analysis - **Exchange Inventories**: The inventories of the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) increased. The LME aluminum inventory reached a new high in more than three and a half months, and the SHFE aluminum inventory has increased for four consecutive weeks [55][56]. - **Aluminum Ingot Inventories**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate, but the increase did not exceed the seasonal level, and the current inventory level is still relatively low, which still supports the price. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm in August [58][59]. 3.6 Other Market Features - **Scrap Aluminum Market**: The scrap aluminum procurement market is tight, and the price is firm. The reasons include limited imports, limited domestic scrap aluminum increment but increasing demand, and the procurement preference of large enterprises for large - scale ticket - issuing recyclers [61][62]. - **Price Difference between Electrolytic Aluminum and Aluminum Alloy**: The price difference between domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy is positive and at a relatively high level, mainly because the downstream demand is weak in the traditional off - season, while the accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is relatively slow and that of domestic aluminum alloy social inventory is relatively fast [64][65].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Maintain a strategy of buying on dips in August. The shortage of copper mines this year is more severe than last year, and the overall shortage of copper mines throughout the year supports copper prices. In the short - term, due to the implementation of copper tariffs (excluding electrolytic copper) and the further decline of the September interest - rate cut expectation, copper prices are in a continuous adjustment, with a support level at 77,000. In the medium - to - long - term, there are still expectations of two interest - rate cuts this year, and the tight supply of copper mines will continue to support copper prices, so the strategy of buying on dips is maintained [6][7]. Summary by Directory 01后市研判 - In August, maintain the strategy of buying on dips. The shortage of copper mines this year is more severe than last year, providing support for copper prices. In the short - term, copper prices are adjusting due to tariff implementation and the decline of the September interest - rate cut expectation, with a support at 77,000. In the medium - to - long - term, expect two interest - rate cuts this year, and continue to maintain the buying - on - dips strategy [6][7]. 02行情回顾 - In July, copper prices remained in a high - level consolidation. From late June to early July, due to the expectation that the 232 policy might be implemented in September or October, the shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions intensified, and copper prices rose. On July 3, Shanghai copper reached 80,990 yuan/ton, equivalent to 10,000 US dollars/ton for London copper. On July 8, the US announced a 50% tariff on copper, and copper prices fell from the high. On July 14, copper prices hit the monthly low of 77,700 yuan/ton. In late July, the "anti - involution" trend and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station project boosted market sentiment, and copper prices reached 80,000 yuan/ton again. But after the sentiment faded, copper prices returned to the fundamentals [9][10]. 03宏观面 - **International Situation**: On August 1, the 50% copper tariff excluded electrolytic copper, copper ore, and scrap copper. Excluding the electrolytic copper tariff made the CME market almost eliminate the tariff premium, and there is a possibility of US electrolytic copper flowing out, accelerating the supply - demand balance in non - US regions. In July, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. Powell's speech was hawkish, and the strong US economic and employment data increased the risk of inflation, causing the September interest - rate cut expectation to decline further, and the US dollar index rebounded, suppressing copper prices. In the medium - to - long - term, as the tariff situation eases and the actual US CPI shows a moderate increase, the market has been lowering CPI expectations, opening up space for interest - rate cuts in Q3, and there are still expectations of two interest - rate cuts this year, which will gradually remove the upward pressure on metals [8]. - **US Economic Data**: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than expected. In July, the ADP employment increased by 104,000, exceeding economists' expectations but still far below last year's average. The second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly initial value increased by 3%, significantly exceeding market expectations. The core PCE price index in June increased by 2.8% year - on - year, higher than expected. The strong US economic and employment data increased the risk of inflation, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut expectation may be further reduced [20]. - **Domestic Situation**: The domestic economy is generally stable, and there is an expectation for the accelerated implementation of growth - stabilizing policies. From the supply side, according to the "Implementation Plan for the High - Quality Development of the Copper Industry (2025 - 2027)", copper smelting development will shift from capacity expansion to quality and efficiency improvement, and the contradiction between mining and smelting is expected to be gradually alleviated. From the demand side, the "anti - involution" policies focus on a new round of growth - stabilizing actions, and the stable growth of the manufacturing industry will boost copper demand. In the medium - to - long - term, after the elimination of over - capacity, the supply growth rate may lag behind the demand improvement rate, further pushing up the copper price [23][26]. 04基本面 - **Supply Side** - **Copper Ore Import**: In June, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.3497 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 1.77%. The supply from the top two suppliers, Chile and Peru, continued to decline, with Peru's decline being around 15%. The long - term processing fees negotiated between domestic smelters and overseas miners this year are zero, and the spot processing fees remain low, indicating that the tight supply of copper mines is difficult to ease in the short term [27]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fees**: As of the week of July 25, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 42.98 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.22 US dollars/dry ton from the previous week. The spot market for copper concentrates remained relatively inactive, and the processing fees showed a trend of "stabilizing with a slight correction". The 2025 Q2 CSPC general manager's meeting decided not to set a reference figure for the Q3 spot copper concentrate processing fees [30]. - **Refined Copper Inventory**: Affected by the 232 tariff policy, the rush to import copper started in April. In April and May, the US imported 200,000 tons and 210,000 tons of refined copper respectively, far exceeding the historical average of 80,000 tons, causing a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions. As of June 30, the LME inventory dropped to 90,000 tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons from the beginning of the year. With the implementation of the 232 policy, the LME inventory started to increase, reaching 128,000 tons by July 25. The New York copper inventory continued to accumulate, reaching a new high in more than seven years. As of July 31, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 121,300 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons from the 28th [33]. - **Electrolytic Copper Production**: In the first half of 2025, domestic electrolytic copper production reached a new high. From January to June, the cumulative production was 6.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 674,700 tons, or 11.40%. In July, the estimated production was 1.1504 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. Although smelting is in a loss - making stage, the willingness to actively reduce production is not strong [36]. - **Scrap Copper Import**: In June, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year increase of 8.49%. The supply from Thailand, the new largest scrap copper supplier, continued to rise by more than 20%, and the supply from Asian countries such as Japan, Malaysia, and South Korea also increased to varying degrees, while the supply from the US decreased by more than 80%. Due to the adjustment of the smelting raw material structure, the increased supply from other countries compensated for the decrease from the US [39]. - **Demand Side** - **Power Sector**: In 2025, the State Grid's investment is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time. From January to June, the power grid investment was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The power source project investment increased by 5.9% year - on - year, mainly due to the over - expected growth of photovoltaic and wind power installations. If the two - grid companies complete their planned investment of 825 billion yuan, there is still significant room for growth in power grid investment. Affected by the off - season and high copper prices, the cable operating rate in June dropped to 72.41%. From January to June, China's cable exports were 1.4296 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.63%. The "Belt and Road" countries have great potential in promoting China's power material exports [41]. - **Real Estate Sector**: From January to June, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and housing construction area decreased by 9.1%. New housing starts decreased by 20.0%, and housing completions decreased by 14.8%. Although real estate sales are basically stable and inventory is decreasing, the demand for copper in the real estate sector remains weak [45]. - **Automobile Sector**: From January to June, automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 41.4% and 40.3%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is approaching 50%. China's automobile exports were 3.083 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, with new energy vehicle exports increasing by 75.2%. The growth of the automobile industry will drive copper consumption [48]. - **Home Appliance Sector**: In June, the national air - conditioner production was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 163.296 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. In August, the combined production plan for air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. The production plan for household air - conditioners in August was 11.443 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%, but the decline was expected to narrow compared to the previous month. The high - temperature weather in summer and the "trade - in" subsidy policy promoted air - conditioner sales and inventory digestion [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - In July, the domestic asphalt market fundamentals weakened marginally. Supply pressure increased due to the expected third - quarter terminal rush and high asphalt cracking spreads, while demand decreased because of weather - related construction disruptions. Socially - held inventories remained at a high level, suppressing prices. Macro improvements had limited support for the market. Cost - driven factors led to a short - term strengthening of oil prices, which in turn drove the asphalt market. Currently, the asphalt market lacks a core driving factor and is mainly influenced by crude oil. Given the medium - to long - term expectation of crude oil supply surplus, the asphalt price is expected to continue to fluctuate widely. For trading strategies, pay attention to the pressure range of 3700 - 3750 for the BU2510 contract, and consider short - selling if US sanctions on Russia are lower than market expectations [69]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - In July, the asphalt futures price fluctuated widely. On one hand, the asphalt fundamentals showed a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. Asphalt production continued to rise as refinery operating rates increased, while demand weakened due to the typhoon season in the southern region. Social inventories remained at a high level, suppressing prices. On the other hand, the marginal improvement in the supply and demand of crude oil supported oil prices. In the context of less prominent fundamental contradictions, the cost was the main influencing factor for asphalt prices [6]. 02 Macro Analysis - **Trade Agreements**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, and both sides agreed to extend the suspension of part of the US reciprocal tariffs and Chinese counter - measures for 90 days. The US reached trade agreements with the EU, Japan, etc., and also imposed new tariffs on South Korea, India, and Brazil. In the short term, trade tensions were effectively alleviated, which supported oil prices to some extent. However, the long - term impact on the global economy remains uncertain [8]. - **Fed's Interest - Rate Decision**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations. Two Fed officials opposed the decision, indicating a weakening of internal consensus. Fed Chairman Powell's speech was hawkish, and the probability of a September interest - rate cut decreased. The interest - rate decision and Powell's speech added uncertainty to the future interest - rate adjustment rhythm [12]. - **Geopolitical Tensions**: US President Trump set a deadline for Russia to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine and threatened sanctions if the goal was not achieved. The US also imposed large - scale sanctions on Iran. These events raised concerns about the supply side of the market and supported the recent strengthening of oil prices [13]. 03 Supply - Demand Analysis - **OPEC+ Production**: OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and the market expects a continued increase in September to reach the target of restoring 2.2 million barrels per day of production. The market has fully priced in the OPEC+ production increase, and the key lies in the speed and scale of the increase. It is expected that this round of production increase will be completed by the end of the fourth quarter. Additionally, Kazakhstan's production exceeded the quota, raising concerns about OPEC+ internal price competition [16][17]. - **IEA, EIA, and OPEC Forecasts**: In July, IEA, EIA, and OPEC had different expectations for global crude oil supply and demand growth. IEA raised the supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 16,000 barrels per day, maintaining a pessimistic outlook. EIA and OPEC maintained their previous forecasts, expecting demand improvement due to the easing of global trade tensions [19]. - **Domestic Asphalt Supply**: In July, domestic asphalt production was 2.55 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 234,000 tons or 10.5%. The operating rate of domestic refineries increased, with significant increases in the East China and Shandong regions. The asphalt cracking spread fluctuated, and the expected third - quarter terminal rush demand drove the refinery operating rate to rise, increasing supply pressure [21][29]. - **Domestic Asphalt Demand**: In July, domestic asphalt shipments were 1.867 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 88,000 tons. Rainy weather restricted terminal construction, weakening demand. As the rainy season ended, shipments increased week - on - week. The utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity increased, but the long - term growth space is limited [30][33]. - **Import and Export**: In June, domestic asphalt imports were 375,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons or 5.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 32.56%. Exports were 29,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,600 tons. From January to June, cumulative imports decreased by 11.53% year - on - year, while cumulative exports increased by 53.36% year - on - year [40][43]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 700,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,000 tons. The social inventory was 1.343 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,000 tons. Factory inventory decreased slightly due to lower production and increased terminal construction, while social inventory increased slightly due to weak demand and remained at a high level [52][57]. - **Price Spread**: As of August 1, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing was - 551.7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 37.5 yuan/ton. The asphalt basis was 76 yuan/ton, and the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 57.25 as of July 31. The asphalt cracking spread weakened, and the basis first strengthened and then weakened, indicating weak price support from the demand side [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market features "strong reality, weak expectation", with short - term support factors and long - term suppression logic coexisting. In the short term, factors such as the peak consumption season, improved macro - environment, and OPEC+ actual production increase lower than planned support oil prices. In the long term, OPEC+ is expected to fully release the 2.2 million barrels per day production increase by the end of the fourth quarter, while seasonal demand will weaken, leading to a long - term structural surplus. The proposed US sanctions on Russia may cause short - term supply concerns and oil price rebounds, but the actual supply reduction may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure of WTI crude oil prices at $70 - 72 per barrel, and consider short positions if sanctions are lower than market expectations [53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In July, oil prices first fluctuated widely and then rose. The "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern of crude oil, the expected peak consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere, and the decline in EIA crude oil inventories supported oil prices. Although OPEC+ planned to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, the market had already priced it in, and the actual increase was much smaller. The threat of US sanctions on Russia also supported oil price rebounds. However, in the fourth quarter, the shift from peak to off - peak consumption and OPEC+ production increases may lead to supply surpluses and limit oil price increases [5]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Trade Agreements - The short - term trade tension has been alleviated as the US reached trade agreements with China, the EU, and Japan. However, the long - term impact on the global economy is still uncertain. The US also imposed new tariffs on South Korea, India, and Brazil [6]. 3.2.2 Fed's Interest Rate Decision - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations. There were two dissenting votes advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Powell's speech was hawkish, and the probability of a September rate cut dropped from about 65% to below 50% [10]. 3.2.3 Geopolitical Tensions - Trump threatened to impose sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine by August 8. The US also imposed large - scale sanctions on Iran. These events raised concerns about supply disruptions and supported oil prices [11]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 OPEC+ Production - OPEC+ increased production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. It is expected to continue increasing production in September to reach the 2.2 million barrels per day production recovery target. However, Kazakhstan's failure to cut production as promised may lead to concerns about an internal price war within OPEC+ [14][15]. 3.3.2 Forecasts from Different Institutions - In July, IEA raised the global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 16,000 barrels per day. EIA and OPEC maintained their previous forecasts [17]. 3.3.3 Supply from Different Regions - OPEC's crude oil production increased by 221,000 barrels per day in June, mainly due to Saudi Arabia's production increase. Non - OPEC production increased by 129,000 barrels per day, mainly from Kazakhstan and Russia. US crude oil production decreased by 120,000 barrels per day in the week ending July 25, and the number of oil rigs also decreased [19][21][24]. 3.3.4 Demand from Different Regions - China's apparent crude oil consumption increased by 3% in June. However, China's manufacturing PMI decreased in July. In the US, refinery utilization rates increased, but the manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, and the Chicago PMI continued to decline [32][38][39]. 3.3.5 Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventories increased by 7.74 million barrels in the week ending July 25. Although the seasonal peak may drive inventory reduction, the reduction space is limited [48].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Coking Coal and Coke Monthly Report [2] - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Report Author: Wang Nan [2] - Company: AVIC Futures [2] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 3: Report Core Viewpoints - In July, the double - coking futures continued the upward trend from June, but the price volatility in the last two weeks increased significantly. Policy and market factors affected supply and demand expectations, and price fluctuations were large. In August, due to factors such as position - shifting and policy expectations, the prices quickly declined [7]. - Currently, the coking coal inventory pressure has gradually eased, and the price has upward elasticity, but short - term sentiment decline may correct the over - increase. The coking coal supply increment and price support after the sentiment decline should be focused on [33]. - With the rapid increase in coking enterprise production costs, the frequency of price increases has accelerated. The fifth price increase has not been implemented due to market sentiment cooling. The short - term market is expected to oscillate at a high level to digest the previous increase, and attention should be paid to the impact of the parade on supply contraction [36]. Group 4: Summary by Report Sections 1. Market Review - In July, the coking coal 09 contract rose 26.73%, and the coke 09 contract rose 14.03%. Policy factors such as the "anti - involution" policy and the "Yaxia" project affected supply and demand expectations, leading to price increases. The exchange's position - limit and the Politburo meeting cooled the market sentiment, and in August, the price quickly declined due to position - shifting [7]. 2. Data Analysis - **Supply of Coking Coal**: As of the week of August 1, the operating rate of 110 sample coal - washing plants was 61.51%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.11%, and the daily output of clean coal was 52.135 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.05 tons. The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.31%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.08%, and the daily output of clean coal was 77.67 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.54 tons. The supply of coking coal has recovered, but the resumption of production is limited. The customs clearance at the Ganqimao Port has decreased compared with the same period last year, but it rebounded at the end of July [10]. - **Import of Coking Coal**: In June 2025, China's coking coal imports were 9.1084 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.05%. Mongolia and Russia accounted for 77.23% of the imports. Australian coal effectively supplemented the shortage of US coal. The imports of Mongolia, Russia, and Canada are expected to increase slightly [11]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of the week of August 1, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.4826 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 602,100 tons; the clean coal inventory of sample coal - washing plants was 1.6638 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33,200 tons; the port coking coal inventory was 2.8211 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 278,900 tons. The inventory has been significantly reduced, and the inventory pressure has been alleviated [16]. - **Coking Coal Replenishment**: As of August 1, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 9.9273 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 987,800 tons, and the inventory available days were 11.52 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.63 days; the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8.0379 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 795,000 tons, and the inventory available days were 12.87 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.3 days. Independent coking enterprises had a high enthusiasm for replenishment, while the replenishment of steel mills was relatively moderate [19]. - **Coke Production**: As of the week of August 1, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.69%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.51%, and the daily output of metallurgical coke was 64,810 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3180 tons; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 86.62%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.31%, and the daily output of coke was 46,970 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110 tons. The capacity utilization rate and output were relatively stable [21]. - **Iron Water Production and Coke Demand**: As of the week of August 1, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 65.37%, a year - on - year increase of 58.88%; the daily iron water output was 2.4071 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,900 tons; the weekly coke consumption was 1.0832 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18,400 tons. High iron water production supported coke demand [24]. - **Coke Export**: In the first half of 2025, the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 350,590.4 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 1.3583 million tons. India's import restrictions and price competition from Indonesian coke affected China's coke export, and the export was mainly for domestic demand [25]. - **Coke Inventory**: As of the week of August 1, the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 736,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 173,000 tons but a significant decrease of 284,800 tons compared with the beginning of July; the coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 6.2669 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 835,300 tons; the port coke inventory was 2.151 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 168,900 tons. The inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased significantly [28]. - **Coke Price Increase**: As of the week of August 1, the average loss per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 45 yuan. In July, four price increases were implemented, but the fifth one was postponed due to market sentiment cooling. The price increase frequency accelerated, and the game between steel and coking enterprises intensified [29]. 3. Future Market Outlook - The demand for steel is in the seasonal off - season, and the improvement in the real - world is limited. Policy factors and position - shifting have affected the market. The coking coal inventory pressure has eased, and the price has upward elasticity, but short - term sentiment decline may correct the over - increase [33]. - The coking enterprises' price increase frequency has accelerated, and the fifth price increase has not been implemented. The short - term market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the impact of the parade on supply contraction should be focused on [36].