Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the oil industry. 2. Core View - In the fourth quarter, the crude oil market will continue to face a game between fundamentals and geopolitics. The expected supply surplus due to OPEC+ production increases and the end of the demand peak season will suppress oil prices, while geopolitical tensions may support prices. Overall, oil prices are expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation, with the WTI crude oil price recommended to be monitored in the range of $55 - 75 per barrel [53]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review - In the third quarter, crude oil showed a slightly weak oscillating trend. After the end of the Israel - related conflict, the geopolitical risk premium declined rapidly. The changing US - Russia relations caused short - term market disturbances, and the "strong reality, weak expectation" situation supported oil prices but couldn't drive continuous growth. As the demand peak season ended, the expected supply surplus pressured oil prices. Attention should be paid to demand changes and geopolitical developments [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Fed Interest Rate Cut**: On September 18, 2025, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut in 2025. It is expected to cut rates two more times in 2025, once each in 2026 and 2027. Powell pointed out that the US labor market is weakening. After the interest - rate cut, market sentiment recovered, but further economic data decline may strengthen the expected supply surplus and pressure oil prices [10]. - **Geopolitical Impact**: Geopolitical events such as the US - Russia "Putin - Trump meeting", threats of sanctions against Russia, suspension of Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and threats of tariffs on Russian oil buyers have intermittently affected oil prices. Given the large differences in core interests between the two sides of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, geopolitics will remain a major factor affecting oil prices in the fourth quarter [11]. - **OPEC+ Production Adjustment**: OPEC+ completed the 2.2 million barrels per day production increase one year ahead of schedule in September and will implement a 137,000 - barrel - per - day production adjustment starting in October. Some countries will compensate for over - production by 2026. IEA raised its forecasts for global oil supply and demand growth, while EIA and OPEC maintained their previous forecasts [14][17]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Supply Side** - OPEC+ production increased from July to August 2025, with a cumulative output of 55.418 million barrels per day, a 1.082 - million - barrel - per - day increase from the previous period. The production increase is expected to fully reach 2.2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, increasing supply pressure [19]. - As of September 19, US weekly EIA crude oil production was 13.501 million barrels per day, an increase from June and August. US oil production is expected to remain stable but faces multiple risks [21]. - As of September 19, the total number of US oil rigs was 418, an increase of 2 from the previous period. The number of rigs is expected to remain low [23]. - **Demand Side** - In the third quarter, the US manufacturing PMI rebounded, with the ISM manufacturing PMI reaching 51.4 in August, up 4.3 from the previous month. The Chicago PMI remained stable, indicating that manufacturing expansion boosted oil demand to some extent [26]. - As of September 19, the US refinery utilization rate was 93%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period. Refinery utilization rates are in a downward cycle, and oil demand is under pressure [29]. - China's manufacturing PMI remained stable in the third quarter but was below the boom - bust line. The main refinery utilization rate decreased, while the independent refinery utilization rate increased. Overall, domestic oil consumption faces short - term weakening pressure [37][41]. - **Inventory Side** - As of September 19, the US EIA crude oil inventory was - 607,000 barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 230,000 barrels. In the third quarter, the US EIA crude oil was in a destocking state, but may start to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter [46]. - As of September 19, the Cushing crude oil inventory was 177,000 barrels. In the third quarter, Cushing crude oil inventory increased, while gasoline inventory decreased. Both are expected to face inventory accumulation pressure [51].

铜季报 宏观利多 +供应紧缺 上行空间仍 在 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 目录 01 行情回顾 03 基本面 02 宏观面 04后市研判 2025-9-26 中航期货 PART 01 行情回顾 三季度铜价区间震荡 2025年三季度铜价呈现区间震荡格局，沪铜主力合约波动区间介于77570-83090元/吨。7月初美国超预期宣布对进口铜加征50%关税，引发全球贸易流恐 慌，铜价承压回落，最低达到77700元/吨；随后市场情绪逐步消化，焦点重回全球铜矿供给的结构性紧张及美联储降息预期，铜价于季末企稳于8万元/吨 关口之上，临近季末，因矿端事件扰动，一举突破震荡区间，最高达到83090元/吨。 | 促 | 上 | 降 | 增 | 了 | 较 | 较 | 降 | 万 | 年 | 敦 | 府 | 数 | 增 | 心 | 启 | 歧 | 歧 | 次 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel prices rebounded with oscillations this week, supported by the cost side. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was fulfilled, having a small impact on the black market. The article in Qiushi Journal boosted the coking coal price, providing cost support for steel. Steel's off - season trading is nearly over, but fundamental pressure remains, and steel is expected to fluctuate within a range. Track the demand improvement after price increases [5][67]. - Iron ore prices fluctuated at a high level this week. Supply: shipping increased but arrivals decreased, and port inventories declined. Demand: hot metal production remained high, pre - holiday restocking demand provided support, and the US easing cycle was favorable for risk assets. However, downstream steel demand showed no obvious improvement, and price increases require fundamental support. Short - term ore prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly, with attention to adjustment pressure after the end of restocking at the end of the month [5][69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: China and the US reached a basic framework consensus on resolving the TikTok issue. Xi Jinping's article on promoting the unified market was published. The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, and is expected to cut twice more this year [5]. - **Key Data**: China's August industrial and consumption data missed expectations; US August industrial and retail data were better than expected. In early September, key steel enterprises' daily crude steel output increased by 7.2% [5]. - **Main Views**: Steel is expected to oscillate in a range, and iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **For Steel (Thread)**: Bullish factors include positive market sentiment from the Qiushi article, cost support from rising raw material prices, and improved demand and reduced inventory pressure. Bearish factors are the market adjustment after the Fed's rate cut and weakening economic data in August, and the decline in hot - rolled coil apparent demand [8]. - **For Iron Ore**: Bullish factors are positive market sentiment, cost support, high hot metal production, and pre - holiday restocking demand. Bearish factors are the market adjustment after the Fed's rate cut, weakening economic data in August, and increased iron ore shipping [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Macro**: The article in Qiushi Magazine boosted industrial product sentiment. The Fed cut rates, and the market expected another cut in October. August's social financing and economic data were weak, and policies are needed [10][12][18]. - **Terminal**: Real estate investment and sales were weak. August's auto production and sales were stable, with new - energy vehicles growing rapidly. August's excavator production and sales increased, and ship exports grew [24][29][32]. - **Supply**: In the first eight months, China's crude steel and pig iron production decreased year - on - year [33]. - **(Thread)**: Spot prices rose slightly, and the basis shrank. The steel mill profitability rate decreased. Blast furnace开工率 increased, and electric furnace开工率 decreased. Steel output decreased slightly. Thread apparent demand improved seasonally, and hot - rolled coil demand fluctuated. Thread inventory decreased, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased. The coil - to - thread spread declined [35][37][43]. - **(Iron Ore)**: Spot prices fluctuated slightly, and the basis widened. In August, imports increased slightly, and shipping increased this week. Arrivals decreased this week. Hot metal production was high. Port inventory decreased, and dredging increased. Steel mills are still restocking [51][55][58]. 3.4后市研判 - **Steel**: Steel is expected to oscillate in a range, and the demand after price increases needs to be tracked [67]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the adjustment pressure after the end of restocking [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was in line with expectations. In the medium term, the logic of continuous liquidity easing remains, but after the short - term bullish factors are realized, risk assets may experience a limited - amplitude correction [10]. - The main theme of the economy is still stable growth. China will implement a series of policies to expand service consumption [11][12]. - The supply of alumina is expected to remain in an oversupply situation, and the spot price is expected to continue to adjust weakly in the short term [22][25]. - In August, the output of primary aluminum changed little, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in September [26][27]. - The real - estate market is still under pressure, but the new policies in first - tier cities have provided some support to the market [33][34]. - The production and sales of automobiles, especially new - energy vehicles, showed a good growth trend in August [36][37]. - The inventories of domestic and foreign exchanges both increased, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate [39][42][43]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 01 Report Summary - The Fed's interest - rate cut was in line with expectations, with a neutral - to - hawkish attitude. Medium - term liquidity is expected to be loose, and short - term risk assets may correct slightly [10]. - China will implement policies to expand service consumption, including selecting pilot cities and promoting the application of AI [12]. - The supply of alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weak. The output of primary aluminum changed little in August, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in September [25][27]. - The real - estate market is under pressure, but first - tier city policies have provided some support. The automobile market, especially new - energy vehicles, showed good growth [34][37]. 02 Multi - and Short - Focus - **Bullish factors**: The enterprise's production capacity utilization rate continues to increase, and the social inventory remains at a low level [7]. - **Bearish factors**: The price of aluminum oxide continues to decline, and the market shows a weak trend [7]. 03 Data Analysis - **Aluminum ore**: From January to July 2025, the domestic aluminum ore production increased. The import of bauxite from Guinea remained stable, but attention should be paid to the impact of the referendum [16][21]. - **Alumina**: In August 2025, the output of alumina was at a high level, and the supply - surplus situation remained unchanged. The spot price is expected to adjust weakly [25]. - **Primary aluminum**: In August 2025, the output of primary aluminum was 3.8 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. The operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in September [27]. - **Downstream processing**: The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly, but high aluminum prices inhibited procurement [30]. - **Real - estate**: In August, the real - estate sales, investment, new - start, and completion areas all declined year - on - year. First - tier cities introduced policies, and the new - house transaction area in 38 cities increased year - on - year in early September [34]. - **Automobile**: In August, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [37]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of LME and SHFE aluminum increased. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate, and the spot premium decreased [39][43][45]. - **Recycled aluminum**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly in August, and the operating rate increased slightly last week. The inventory of aluminum alloy increased [48][51][59]. - **Aluminum alloy imports and exports**: In July 2025, the import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy reached a four - year low, and the export volume increased year - on - year [54]. 04后市研判 - For Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to the support around 20,600 and wait for the verification of the peak season of domestic downstream demand [62]. - The price of aluminum alloy still fluctuates with the price of aluminum, and it is recommended to be bullish on dips [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - With a bullish fundamental outlook and the re - mention of "anti - involution" remarks in the domestic macro - environment, the coking coal market is boosted. It is recommended to buy on dips. After the Fed's interest - rate cut event, the market focus returns to the supply - demand situation. Attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment intensity before the National Day and the capital - side fluctuations caused by margin increases, which may cause short - term interference to the upward slope of coking coal prices. Coke's upward driving force is limited, and its short - term price trend will follow coking coal [5][30]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Report Summary (PART 01) - As of September 16, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. Non - housing project capital improved, while housing project capital deteriorated [5]. - The central environmental protection inspection team provided feedback to the Shanxi provincial government on September 12, requiring strict implementation of coal production control and air pollution governance [5]. - President Xi Jinping's article in the 18th issue of Qiushi magazine on September 16 mentioned measures to address low - price competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity [5]. - Coking coal supply increased slightly, and the upstream inventory depletion rate slowed down. Independent coking enterprises replenished coking coal inventory, while steel mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases. Coke production was stable, iron - water production remained high, and the second round of coke price cuts was implemented, turning the average profit per ton of coke from positive to negative [5]. Multi - Empty Focus (PART 02) - Bullish factors: Reduced coking coal inventory pressure, high iron - water production supporting coke demand, downstream replenishment before the National Day, and limited production increase due to "anti - involution" remarks [8]. - Bearish factors: Increased Mongolian coal imports and low replenishment enthusiasm of steel mills [8]. Data Analysis (PART 03) - Coking coal supply: The operating rates of 314 sample coal - washing plants and 523 sample mines increased, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume remained high [11]. - Coking coal upstream inventory: The inventory depletion rate slowed down. Mines' inventory decreased, while coal - washing plants' and ports' inventory increased [12]. - Independent coking enterprises: They replenished coking coal inventory and reduced their own coke inventory [15]. - Steel mills: They mainly made rigid - demand purchases, with coking coal inventory decreasing and coke inventory increasing [19]. - Coke production: The overall coke production remained stable [21]. - Iron - water production: It remained at a high level, supporting coke consumption [23]. - Coke profit: After the second round of price cuts, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises turned negative, and the profit rate of steel enterprises continued to decline [25]. - Double - coking far - month basis structure: The spot and futures prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated strongly [27]. 后市研判 (PART 04) - Coking coal: Although mines resumed production after the parade, production increase was limited due to policies. With demand support and reduced inventory pressure, and the boost from "anti - involution" remarks, it is recommended to buy on dips [30]. - Coke: After the second - round price cuts, the profit of independent coking enterprises turned negative. The upward driving force is limited, and it will follow coking coal in the short term [33].

中航期货 2025-09-19 原油周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 数据分析 05 后市研判 报告PA摘R要T 01 （1）美联储降息25BP，开启年内首次降息。 （2）中美就妥善解决TikTok问题达成基本框架共识。 （3）俄乌谈判暂停，地缘局势升温。 市场焦点 重点数据 （1）美国至9月12日当周EIA原油库存 -928.5万桶，预期-85.7万桶，前值393.9万桶。 （2）美国至9月12日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 -29.6万桶，前值-36.5万桶。 （3）美国至9月12日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 50.4万桶，前值51.4万桶。 主要观点 本周油价先涨后跌，整体呈现窄幅震荡的行情，主要的交易逻辑仍在于"强现实、弱预期"的基本面和地缘政治 的博弈。美国EIA原油及成品油库存超预期下降，表明需求仍存在一定韧性，但OPEC+开启新一轮增产加大供应端的压 力，同时8月份月报表明OPEC增产加速落地，第一轮增产有望在四季度完全兑现，随着需求旺季进入尾声，四季度供 应过剩的预期逐步强化，对油价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%. The meeting was generally in line with expectations, but the attitude was neutral and slightly hawkish. After the interest rate cut was realized, the US dollar rebounded after hitting a low, and commodities adjusted overall. The expectation of multiple interest rate cuts within the year was confirmed, and liquidity growth would continue [5][11]. - The copper price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Pay attention to the support around 79,200. The mid - term strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [5][57]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the first rate cut this year and the resumption of rate cuts after 9 months. Most Fed officials expect two more rate cuts this year and one next year [11]. - From January to August, the national industrial added - value above designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year, with the growth rate falling. Infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment growth rates declined, and real estate development investment decreased [14]. - The copper price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and the mid - term strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - There is an expectation that the smelting output center will shift downward [8]. - The spot processing fee remains at a low level, and the tightness at the mine end still exists [8]. - Social inventory has decreased [8]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - The interest rate cut has been realized, and the bullish news is exhausted [8]. - The spot premium continues to decline [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 Copper Ore Imports - In August, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 275.9 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August were 20.054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [17]. 3.3.2 Copper Concentrate TC - As of the week of September 12, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.68 US dollars per dry ton, up 0.17 US dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The spot TC of copper concentrate increased slightly, but the overall sentiment was cautious, and spot transactions remained light [21]. 3.3.3 Copper Production - In August 2025, China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) output was 1.301 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. In September, it is expected that the output will decline due to smelter maintenance and anode copper supply shortages [25]. 3.3.4 Scrap Copper Imports - In July, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.98%. The main driving factor was strong domestic demand [29]. 3.3.5 Copper Products Output - In August 2025, China's copper products output was 2.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%, a month - on - month increase of 2%, and a multi - year high for the same period [33]. 3.3.6 Premium between Refined and Scrap Copper - As of September 18, the premium between refined and scrap copper was around - 530 yuan per ton, which was beneficial to refined copper consumption [37]. 3.3.7 Social Inventory - Last week, LME copper inventory continued to decline. SHFE copper inventory increased by 14.9% to 94,054 tons in the week of September 12. COMEX copper inventory reached a new high since January 2004. On September 18, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased by 0.13 tons compared with September 15 [50]. 3.3.8 Copper Spot Premium - On September 18, the spot premium of Shanghai Wumaotrade 1 copper was around 30 yuan per ton, with the premium narrowing. The LME 0 - 3 spot discount was around - 71.09 US dollars per ton, with the discount widening [54]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The copper price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Pay attention to the support around 79,200. The mid - term strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall situation is still bullish, transitioning from trading "policy expectations" to trading "fundamentals." Aluminum prices should focus on the support around 20,600 and await the verification of the peak season of domestic downstream demand [5]. - For aluminum alloys, the short - term supply - demand fundamentals change little, and the alloy prices still fluctuate with aluminum prices. It is recommended to take a bullish approach on pullbacks [67]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first rate cut this year and the restart after a 9 - month hiatus. The meeting was generally in line with expectations but reduced the rate - cut expectations for next year, with a neutral - to - hawkish stance [5][11]. - From January to August, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.2% year - on - year, with the growth rate down 0.1 percentage points from January to July. Infrastructure investment grew by 2.0% year - on - year, with the growth rate down 1.2 percentage points; manufacturing investment grew by 5.1%, down 1.1 percentage points; real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, with the decline widening by 0.9 percentage points [5]. - Aluminum supply - side increments are relatively limited, and the seasonally strong consumption season has seen an increase in the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises. However, high aluminum prices have curbed the purchasing enthusiasm of processing enterprises, and the inflection point of social inventory has not yet arrived [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Side Focus - **Bullish factors**: Limited supply - side increments, continuous increase in the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises, and social inventory remaining at a low level [8]. - **Bearish factors**: Alumina prices continue to be weak, and the rate - cut利好 is exhausted [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Aluminum ore production**: From January to July 2025, China's aluminum ore production was 35.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.21%. In July, it was 543,450 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.42%. Guinean imported ore remains stable, but attention should be paid to the disturbances around the referendum [16][19]. - **Alumina**: In August 2025, China's alumina production was 7.925 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the spot price is expected to continue to adjust weakly [23]. - **Primary aluminum**: In August 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In September, the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly [25]. - **Aluminum downstream processing**: The operating rate of leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2% this week, but high aluminum prices have curbed inventory - building. In August, China's aluminum product output was 5.548 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.2% [28][31]. - **Inventory**: LME and SHFE aluminum inventories both increased. As of September 18, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 636,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from Monday [41][45]. - **Price spread**: On September 18, the average price premium of Shanghai Wumaohui aluminum was - 20 yuan/ton, with the discount narrowing; the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium was 4.89 US dollars/ton, with the premium narrowing [49]. - **Recycled aluminum**: In August, recycled aluminum alloy production was 614,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. It is expected to decline slightly in September. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 0.2 percentage points to 55.5% as of September 11 [53][57]. - **Import and export**: In July 2025, the import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.6%, hitting a four - year low [61]. - **Aluminum alloy inventory**: As of September 19, China's weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy was 71,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons from last week, and the in - factory inventory was 60,800 tons, an increase of 300 tons from last week [66]. 3.4 Market Outlook - **Aluminum alloy**: The short - term supply - demand fundamentals change little, and the alloy prices still fluctuate with aluminum prices. It is recommended to take a bullish approach on pullbacks [67]. - **SHFE aluminum**: Aluminum prices should focus on the support around 20,600 and await the verification of the peak season of domestic downstream demand [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the fundamentals of asphalt showed signs of marginal improvement. The supply side saw flat week - on - week production and开工率, while the demand side had increased shipments and decreased factory and social inventories. However, as the peak - season demand nears its end, the fundamental improvement may not be sustainable, and the support for the futures market is weak. Crude oil has mixed influencing factors, with supply - surplus expectations suppressing prices and geopolitical factors providing intermittent support. In the short term, asphalt will show a wide - range oscillating trend under the combined influence of fundamentals and cost, and the crude oil fluctuations will dominate the market. It is recommended to track geopolitical developments and focus on the BU2511 contract in the range of 3350 - 3500 yuan/ton [7][65] Summary by Directory Report Summary - Market focuses include the Fed's 25 - BP interest rate cut, the basic framework consensus on resolving the TikTok issue between China and the US, and the suspension of Russia - Ukraine negotiations [6] - Key data: As of September 17, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise开工率 was 34.4%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous period. As of September 19, the domestic asphalt weekly production was 60.7 tons, down 0.1 tons from last week; the sample enterprise factory inventory was 65.3 tons, down 3.1 tons; the social inventory was 114.6 tons, down 3.4 tons [7] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt are inventory decline and raw - material disturbances; bearish factors are demand falling short of expectations and insufficient upward cost - side drivers [11] Macro Analysis - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 BP on September 18, from 4.25% - 4.50% to 4.00% - 4.25%, and is expected to cut twice more this year. Powell said the US labor market is weakening. After the rate - cut expectation is fulfilled, the market sentiment has recovered, but further economic data decline may suppress oil prices [12] - Russia - Ukraine negotiations have been suspended, and the US and Europe have threatened to impose tariffs on Russian oil buyers, which provides support for oil prices [13] Data Analysis - Supply: As of September 19, the domestic asphalt weekly production was 60.7 tons, down 0.1 tons from last week. The开工率 was 34.4% as of September 17, down 0.5 percentage points, with significant declines in East and Northeast China. The supply increase is expected to be limited due to unimproved refinery profits [14][24] - Demand: As of September 19, the domestic asphalt weekly shipments were 45.5 tons, up 5.8 tons. The modified asphalt weekly capacity utilization rate was 20.23%, up 1.71 percentage points, with significant increases in North China and Shandong [25][28] - Import: In July, domestic asphalt imports were 38.05 tons, up 0.48 tons month - on - month and 16.53% year - on - year. The cumulative imports from January to July were 210.55 tons, down 7.5% year - on - year [35] - Export: In July, domestic asphalt exports were 5.57 tons, up 2.62 tons month - on - month. The cumulative exports from January to July were 33.49 tons, up 46.45% year - on - year [38] - Inventory: As of September 19, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise factory inventory was 65.3 tons, down 3.1 tons, and the social inventory was 114.6 tons, down 3.4 tons [7] - Spread: As of September 19, the domestic asphalt processing dilution weekly profit was - 557.9 yuan/ton, down 66.2 yuan/ton. As of September 17, the asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio was 54.13, and as of September 18, the asphalt basis was 163 yuan/ton [63] 后市研判 - Asphalt is expected to continue a wide - range oscillating trend under the influence of fundamentals and cost. The demand improvement may not last as the peak season ends. Crude oil has mixed factors and lacks a clear direction. It is recommended to track geopolitical developments and focus on the BU2511 contract in the range of 3350 - 3500 yuan/ton [65]

Group 1: Report Summary - 2025年9月17 - 23日，天然橡胶东南亚主产区降雨量较上一周期增加，赤道以北高降水量区域主要集中在缅甸南部、柬埔寨西南部等地区，赤道以南高降水量区域主要分布在印尼东南部地区 [6] - 美联储如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率下调至4.00% - 4.25%，为年内首次降息，也是时隔9个月后重启降息 [6] - 日本8月份出口额同比下降0.1%，连续第四个月下滑；进口同比减少5.2%，对美国出口同比下滑13.8%，对美汽车出口同比大降28.4% [6] - 天然橡胶原料端价格小幅分化，延续小幅去库；顺丁橡胶原料丁二烯价格窄幅波动，库存小幅去化；轮胎整体产能利用率小幅回升 [6] - 本周橡胶盘面震荡偏弱，受美联储降息后市场情绪变化影响明显，自身基本面因素对盘面驱动有限，仍在区间内震荡，后续关注天气因素和原料端价格对橡胶的影响 [6] Group 2: Multi - Empty Focus - 多方因素包括短期橡胶原料价格持稳、国庆节前补库需求带动库存去化、轮胎开工率回升 [9] - 空方因素包括未来天气转好割胶上量预期、美联储降息落地市场宽松周期预期降低、半钢胎企业库存去化不畅 [9] Group 3: Data Analysis - 截至9月18日，泰国原料新鲜胶水价格56.3泰铢/公斤，杯胶价格51.05泰铢/公斤，国内云南地区胶水价格为14600元/吨，海南地区胶水价格为13400元/吨，国内产区价格相对平稳，成本端支撑仍存 [10] - 截至2025年9月14日，中国天然橡胶社会库存123.5吨，环比下降2.2万吨，青岛保税区现货库存环比下降6013万吨，青岛一般贸易库存环比增加377吨，预计近期继续降库 [13] - 本周国内丁二烯价格延续小幅震荡，周均价略有下滑，顺丁橡胶理论生产亏损为156.5714元/吨，企业理论生产利润仍旧承压 [14] - 截至9月19日当周，顺丁橡胶厂内库存较上周去库400吨，贸易商库存较上周去库390吨，高顺顺丁橡胶产量较上周减少1510吨 [17] - 截至9月19日当周，全钢胎样本企业产能利用率为66.36%，环比增加0.05%，同比增加6.18%；半钢胎样本企业产能利用率为72.74%，环比增加0.13%，同比减少6.92% [18] - 截至9月11日，“RU - NR”01月合约价差维持震荡，“NR - BR”主力合约价差窄幅区间震荡，橡胶内部供需基本面分化不明显 [20] Group 4: Future Market Judgment - 宏观面，美联储9月议息会议如期降息25bp，市场对未来宽松周期的预期程度降低，盘面宏观交易权重增大 [24] - 基本面，原料价格略显疲软但未形成下跌趋势，成本端支撑仍存，天然橡胶库存继续降库，轮胎产能利用率延续小幅回升 [24] - 综合来看，橡胶盘面受美联储降息后市场情绪影响明显，基本面因素驱动有限，仍在区间内震荡，后续关注天气和原料价格影响 [24]