1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market doubts whether the current valuation of NVIDIA has a bubble. The dovish shift of hawkish officials, mild US inflation, and rising employment risks have increased the expectation of an interest rate cut in December. The broad - monetary cycle provides upward momentum for non - ferrous metals [6]. - The domestic supply of bauxite remains tight, while the overseas supply is expected to be loose. The daily output of alumina in October decreased slightly. The domestic alumina production capacity is stable, and the price may oscillate weakly in the short term [6]. - Due to supply - side reforms and the pressure of global carbon neutrality, the capacity expansion space of electrolytic aluminum is limited. The supply shortage of primary aluminum may continue. The short - term macro environment is favorable for aluminum prices, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level [6]. - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1后市研判 (Market Outlook) - Despite NVIDIA's strong performance and outlook, market doubts about its valuation bubble persist. The shift in the stance of hawkish officials, combined with mild inflation and rising employment risks in the US, has increased the expectation of an interest - rate cut in December, which provides upward momentum for non - ferrous metals [6]. - The domestic bauxite supply is tight, but overseas supply is expected to be loose. The daily output of alumina in October decreased slightly. The domestic alumina production capacity is stable, and its price may oscillate weakly in the short term [6]. - Electrolytic aluminum's capacity expansion is restricted. The supply shortage of primary aluminum may continue. With the decline in aluminum prices, downstream procurement has increased, and social inventories have decreased. The short - term macro environment is favorable for aluminum prices, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the December dot - plot on the interest - rate cut expectation for next year [6]. - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [6]. 3.2行情回顾 (Market Review) - In November, the futures prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy showed divergent trends. The alumina futures price continued to be weak, hitting a low of 2,701 yuan/ton. The futures prices of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy rose first and then fell, reaching highs of 22,160 yuan/ton and 21,390 yuan/ton respectively [8][9]. 3.3宏观面 (Macroeconomic Situation) - **US Situation**: The US economic data is mixed. The ISM manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for eight consecutive months, while the ISM services PMI reached an eight - month high. The labor market shows signs of slowdown, and inflation has picked up. The shift in the stance of hawkish officials has increased the expectation of an interest - rate cut in December to 75%. The long - term market pricing implies more than three interest - rate cuts within a year, which is positive for copper prices [14]. - **China Situation**: In October, China's national economy was generally stable. The manufacturing PMI declined, while the non - manufacturing PMI increased slightly. The government has introduced policies to promote "two - major" construction and consumption. Six departments have jointly issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027 [16][20]. 3.4基本面 (Fundamentals) - **Supply Side** - **Bauxite**: In October, the domestic bauxite output decreased. The supply in Henan has recovered, but that in Shanxi has not fully recovered, and the domestic supply remains tight. China's bauxite imports in October decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. As the rainy season in Guinea ends, the imported bauxite supply is expected to increase [22][25]. - **Alumina**: In October, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina increased year - on - year, but the daily output decreased slightly. The operating capacity is still at a high level, but the weekly operating rate decreased slightly. The production profit of some enterprises has turned negative, and the expectation of production cuts is rising. The alumina price is expected to oscillate at a low level [29]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October, China's electrolytic aluminum output increased slightly year - on - year. The operating capacity remains stable at a high level, but the overall increase is limited due to energy - consumption indicators and capacity - replacement policies. The winter environmental protection restrictions may have a limited impact on production. Overseas, the release of electrolytic aluminum capacity is lower than expected due to various factors [30][34]. - **Demand Side** - **Aluminum Processing Enterprises**: High aluminum prices have put pressure on the开工 rate of aluminum processing enterprises. The开工 rate of aluminum profiles is 62.0%, with different trends in various sub - sectors [38]. - **Real Estate Market**: The Chinese real estate market is still in the adjustment period, which suppresses the demand for aluminum in the real estate sector [43]. - **New Energy Sector**: The new energy sector maintains high prosperity. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to grow, and the demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic and wind - power industries is strong [47]. - **Home Appliance Market**: The home appliance market is under pressure. The output of most home appliances decreased in October, and the sales are expected to remain under pressure in the future [50]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Inventories**: The LME aluminum inventory has increased significantly compared with the end of October and may continue to decline. The SHFE aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level [54]. - **Social Inventories**: As of November 24, the 5 - location electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased compared with the previous week. The low social inventory provides support for aluminum prices [57]. - **Other Aspects** - **Copper - Aluminum Ratio**: The copper - aluminum ratio has exceeded 4.0, which is beneficial for aluminum to replace copper [59]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: The开工 rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry remained stable in November. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the import of un - wrought aluminum alloy decreased significantly in October [62][65]. - **Aluminum Alloy Trade**: In October, the import of un - wrought aluminum alloy decreased significantly, while the export increased. The long - term price inversion has led to a significant reduction in imports [65].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to maintain the operation strategy of buying on dips. The upward drive for copper prices comes from the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in December and the long - term broad - money cycle, while the supply - side problems such as low copper concentrate processing fees and production disruptions, and the demand from the new energy sector support the copper price. However, factors like high inventory, the substitution of aluminum for copper, and weak demand in the real estate and home appliance sectors may limit the upside space [6][7]. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 1.后市研判 (Outlook for the Market) - In December, copper prices will be in a high - level oscillation. The operation strategy of buying on dips should be maintained. The increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in December and the long - term broad - money cycle provide upward drive. On the supply side, problems such as the decline in global copper ore grade, slow new project commissioning, and insufficient capital expenditure are difficult to solve in the short term, and production disruptions in major producing areas lead to lower - than - expected annual production growth. The demand from the automotive and new energy sectors provides support, but high inventory and the substitution of aluminum for copper may limit the upside [6][7]. 2.行情回顾 (Market Review) - In November, copper prices showed a high - level oscillation trend. The implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the US government shutdown event weakened the macro - driving force [9][10]. 3.宏观面 (Macroeconomic Aspects) - **US Situation**: The US manufacturing PMI has contracted for eight consecutive months, and the overall labor demand is slowing down. However, the service PMI has reached an eight - month high. Although the performance and outlook of NVIDIA are excellent, the market doubts about its valuation bubble. The dovish shift of the previous hawkish officials has increased the expectation of interest rate cuts in December to 75%, and the market has priced in more than three interest rate cuts within a year, which provides upward drive for copper prices [16]. - **China Situation**: In October, China's manufacturing PMI declined, and the non - manufacturing PMI rose slightly. The overall national economy was running smoothly, and new growth drivers continued to expand. The government has introduced policies to promote consumption, and the market is concerned about the introduction of more growth - stabilizing policies [18][21]. 4.基本面 (Fundamental Aspects) - **Supply Side** - **Copper Ore Import**: In October 2025, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2,451,487.80 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.08%. The supply from major suppliers increased, but that from other sources decreased, and the tight supply of copper concentrate remained difficult to ease [22]. - **Processing Fees**: As of the week of November 21, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 41.81 US dollars per dry ton, a decrease of 0.06 US dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The tight copper concentrate supply situation led to low processing fees and high pressure on the year - end negotiations between domestic smelters and overseas miners [25]. - **Inventory**: Affected by the 232 tariff policy, the US has absorbed a large amount of refined copper globally. Although the siphon effect is gradually weakening, South American copper still prefers to be exported to the US. The total global copper inventory exceeds 800,000 tons, remaining above the central level [28]. - **Production**: In October 2025, China's refined copper production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. Due to smelter overhauls, the production decreased month - on - month, and the impact will be more evident in December [36]. - **Imports and Exports**: In October, China's refined copper imports were 323,144.72 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.32%. Exports were 65,945 tons, a year - on - year increase of more than five times and a month - on - month increase of nearly 1.5 times [45]. - **Waste Copper**: In October, China's waste copper imports were 196,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. However, the low domestic waste copper utilization rate limited the demand for recycled copper raw materials [41]. - **Demand Side** - **Copper - Aluminum Ratio**: The copper - aluminum ratio has exceeded 4.0, which is conducive to the substitution of aluminum for copper and suppresses copper consumption [31]. - **Downstream Products**: In October, the output of copper strips, copper rods, and other products decreased month - on - month due to high copper prices [48][52]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market is still in the adjustment period, and the demand for copper in the real estate sector is suppressed [56]. - **New Energy**: In October 2025, China's new energy vehicle production was 1.71 million, a year - on - year increase of 19.3%. The new energy power generation sector maintained a high - growth trend, providing marginal demand for copper [61]. - **Home Appliances**: In October 2025, the production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased year - on - year. Although there was some subsidy release in November - December, the home appliance market was still under pressure [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market lacks upward drivers and is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend. The improvement of asphalt fundamentals is poorly anticipated, with the demand side entering a seasonal contraction phase and facing further downward pressure. The supply side has insufficient upward drivers, and the expectations of supply surplus and geopolitical easing suppress the market. The oil price is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the repeated changes in geopolitics. It is recommended to focus on the range of 2900 - 3150 yuan/ton for the BU2602 contract [6][56]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In November, asphalt showed a unilateral downward trend under the combined influence of the cost side and fundamentals. Demand entered a seasonal contraction phase, some refineries sold spot forward contracts at low prices, and market sentiment was generally weak. The OPEC+ production increase and the rising expectation of geopolitical easing pressured oil prices, weakening cost - side support and intensifying the downward pressure on the market. The market currently lacks upward drivers, and with the seasonal decline in demand, fundamentals are difficult to improve effectively. The cost - side support is limited, and the market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend [6]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **OPEC+ Production Policy**: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause production increase in the first quarter of 2026. This move is expected to relieve supply pressure in the short term but has limited long - term impact. OPEC's latest monthly report shows that the global crude oil market is expected to shift from balance to surplus, with a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the supply growth forecast of non - OPEC countries in 2025 has been raised by 110,000 barrels per day. The demand for OPEC's crude oil in 2026 has been lowered, indicating a pessimistic outlook on the demand side [9][10][13]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Policy**: Fed officials have made dovish statements, and the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December has risen to 85%. The U.S. labor market shows a "split" situation, with employment exceeding expectations but the unemployment rate reaching a four - year high. The latest Fed "Beige Book" shows that the decline in consumer spending is the main drag on the U.S. economy, and the government "shutdown" has affected consumer decisions [11]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: The U.S. media disclosed a 28 - point peace plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which was later reduced to 19 points after discussions. Although the short - term expectation of geopolitical easing has increased, there are still significant differences between the two sides on key issues, and the oil price may fluctuate due to geopolitical changes [12]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: In October, China's asphalt production was 2.12 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 500,000 tons. In November, the domestic refinery operating rate decreased month - on - month, mainly due to seasonal maintenance and the entry of terminal consumption into the off - season. The weekly data shows that the operating rate of asphalt sample enterprises is at a low level in recent years and is expected to decline further, alleviating supply pressure [15][22]. - **Demand Side**: In November, China's asphalt shipments decreased month - on - month. Road construction demand may further shrink, and winter storage demand remains highly uncertain. The utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity decreased seasonally, and with the end of the demand peak season, it faces downward pressure [25][27]. - **Import and Export**: In October, asphalt imports were 391,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50,000 tons, and the import average price remained stable. Exports were 52,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27,700 tons, and the export average price decreased slightly [32][38]. - **Inventory**: In November, the inventory of domestic sample enterprises decreased, but the decline rate was slower than in previous years. The social inventory of asphalt also decreased, but the decline rate slowed down, indicating weakening downstream demand [44][49]. - **Price Difference**: In November, the asphalt cracking spread declined, and the diluted profit of asphalt processing remained at a low level within the year. As asphalt is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend, the cracking spread may face further downward pressure [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is influenced by a combination of factors including macro - economic conditions, supply and demand dynamics, and cost factors. The overall trend of aluminum prices may be affected by the balance of these factors, with potential for high - level fluctuations and support from low - level inventories. [5][28] - The 12 - month interest rate cut expectation has increased, and the long - term broad - money cycle may drive copper and potentially aluminum prices upward. Domestic economic stability is expected, and more growth - stabilizing policies are awaited. [11][14][16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1后市研判 (Outlook) - Pay attention to the changes in macro sentiment and the position of aluminum prices. [5][6] 3.2行情回顾 (Market Review) - In November, the futures prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy showed different trends. Alumina futures prices continued to be weak, dropping to a minimum of 2,701 yuan/ton. Electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy futures prices first rose and then fell, reaching a maximum of 22,160 yuan/ton and 21,390 yuan/ton respectively. [7][8] 3.3宏观面 (Macroeconomic Situation) 3.3.1 International Situation - The US economic data shows a complex situation. The ISM manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for eight consecutive months in October, while the ISM services PMI reached an eight - month high. The labor market shows signs of slowdown, and inflation has picked up. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut in December has increased to 75%. [14] 3.3.2 Domestic Situation - The domestic economy is running smoothly, with a continued supply - tight pattern in the aluminum market. The government is expected to introduce more growth - stabilizing policies. [16][18] 3.4基本面 (Fundamentals) 3.4.1 Supply Side - **Aluminum Bauxite**: In October, China's domestic aluminum bauxite production decreased, with a continuous decline for three months. Although the supply pressure in Henan has eased, the supply - tight pattern in the country continues. Overseas, the supply of imported aluminum bauxite is expected to increase in November. [19][22] - **Alumina**: In October, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased, but the daily average production decreased slightly. The overall operating capacity is still at a high level, but the profit has been compressed, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. [27] - **Primary Aluminum (Electrolytic Aluminum)**: In October, China's primary aluminum production increased slightly year - on - year. The operating capacity remained high and stable, but the increase was limited due to energy consumption indicators and capacity replacement policies. Overseas capacity expansion has fallen short of expectations. [28][31] 3.4.2 Demand Side - **Aluminum Processing Enterprises**: High aluminum prices have put pressure on the start - up of aluminum processing enterprises. The overall start - up rate is 62.0%, with different trends in different product segments. [34] - **Real Estate Market**: The Chinese real estate market is still in the adjustment period, which has suppressed the demand for aluminum in the real estate sector. [36][37] - **New Energy Sector**: The new energy sector continues to be highly prosperous. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased significantly, and the new energy power generation industry (photovoltaic and wind power) has also maintained high growth, driving the demand for aluminum. [39][41] - **Home Appliance Market**: The home appliance market is under pressure, with the output of most home appliances showing a downward trend in October. [42][43] 3.4.3 Inventory - **Exchange Inventories**: The LME aluminum inventory has increased significantly, and the SHFE aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level. [46] - **Social Inventories**: As of November 24, the five - location electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 61.2 tons, which continued to be at a low level and supported the aluminum price. [49] 3.4.4 Other Factors - **Copper - Aluminum Ratio**: The copper - aluminum ratio has exceeded 4.0, which is beneficial for aluminum to replace copper, and the aluminum price may have an upward trend. [51] - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: In November, the start - up rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry remained stable. In October, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased significantly, while the export increased. The price of recycled aluminum alloy in the spot market has fallen, and the social inventory has increased slightly. [54][55][58]

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Monthly Report (November 2025) - Report Date: 2025 - 11 - 28 - Report Institution: AVIC Futures - Analyst: Fan Ling - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F0272984 - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0011970 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November, copper prices showed a high - level volatile trend. The macro - driving force weakened due to the Fed's interest rate cut and the US government shutdown. In December, the expectation of an interest rate cut increased, and the long - term broad - money cycle would drive copper prices upward. However, the copper market was affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and substitution, with both upward and downward pressures [7][8][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In November, copper prices generally showed a high - level volatile trend. The Fed's interest rate cut in November and the US government shutdown event caused market concerns about the US economic outlook, weakening the macro - driving force [7][8]. 3.2 Macro - aspect - **US Economic Data**: The US economic data was mixed. The ISM manufacturing PMI continued to contract, the ADP employment data was inconsistent, the unemployment rate rose, the PPI increased, retail sales were lower than expected, and the private - sector employment loss intensified. Although Nvidia's performance was good, the market was skeptical about the current valuation bubble. The hawkish officials' stance shifted, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in December rose to 75%. In the long - term, the market priced in more than three interest rate cuts within a year, and the broad - money cycle would drive copper prices upward [13]. - **Domestic Economy**: The domestic national economy was stable, and attention should be paid to the introduction of more growth - stabilizing policies [15]. 3.3 Fundamental - aspect - **Supply Side** - **Copper Ore Import**: In October 2025, China's copper ore concentrate imports were 2,451,487.80 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.08%. The supply from major countries increased, but that from other countries decreased. The domestic copper concentrate spot processing fee was hovering at a low level, and the tight supply situation of copper ore was still difficult to ease [17]. - **Copper Production**: In October 2025, China's refined copper production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. Due to some smelters' maintenance and the difficulty in purchasing anode copper, the production decreased month - on - month. In November, some smelter maintenance was postponed, and the impact would be more reflected in December. Some enterprises' long - term maintenance affected production in November and December. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association suggested setting an upper limit on the smelting capacity of key metals [30]. - **Scrap Copper Import**: In October, China's scrap copper imports were 196,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. From January to October, the cumulative imports were 1.8956 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.99%. The main import sources were Japan, Thailand, South Korea, and Malaysia. However, the domestic recycled copper raw material demand was limited by the low operating rate [34]. - **Refined Copper Import and Export**: In October, China's refined copper imports were 323,144.72 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.32%. The exports were 65,945 tons, a year - on - year increase of more than five times and a month - on - month increase of nearly 1.5 times. The decrease in imports was due to the decline in supply from major countries, the expansion of the LME - COMEX arbitrage spread, and the deterioration of the import parity [37]. - **Demand Side** - **Copper Product Output**: In October, the output of copper strips decreased by 3.62% month - on - month to 189,100 tons, lower than the same period last year. The output of refined copper rods decreased by 10.99% month - on - month to 756,000 tons, affected by high copper prices [39][42]. - **End - use Industries** - **Real Estate**: From January to October, the national real estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, new - built commercial housing sales area decreased by 6.8%, and sales volume decreased by 9.6%. The real estate market was in an adjustment period, suppressing copper demand in the real - estate field [45]. - **New Energy**: In October, China's new - energy vehicle production was 1.71 million, a year - on - year increase of 19.3%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 12.672 million, a year - on - year increase of 28.1%. The new - energy power generation showed a differentiated trend. Photovoltaic had a short - term adjustment, with a 38% year - on - year decrease in new - installed capacity in October but a 39% year - on - year increase in cumulative new - installed capacity from January to October. Wind power continued to be booming, with a 34% year - on - year increase in new - installed capacity in October and a 53% year - on - year increase in cumulative new - installed capacity from January to October [49]. - **Home Appliances**: In October, the output of air - conditioners decreased by 13.5% year - on - year, refrigerators decreased by 6.0%, washing machines decreased by 2.0%, and color TVs increased by 1.7%. The home - appliance market was under pressure, and the follow - up sales were expected to remain under pressure [51]. - **Inventory** - The LME copper inventory was 156,575 tons, the New York copper inventory was 415,880 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory was 110,603 tons in the week of November 21. The total inventory exceeded 800,000 tons, remaining above the central level. The US's siphoning effect on global refined copper gradually weakened, but South American refined copper would still be preferentially exported to the US [23]. - **Substitution** - The copper - to - aluminum ratio exceeded the 4.0 mark in October. Historically, when the copper - to - aluminum ratio exceeded the "mean + one - standard - deviation", the aluminum price tended to be stronger than the copper price. The strengthening of the copper - to - aluminum ratio was conducive to the substitution of copper by aluminum, suppressing copper consumption [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, macro - factors will disrupt the market. Domestic political meetings and the Central Economic Work Conference are expected to boost domestic macro - expectations, and the Fed's December interest - rate cut situation will affect the domestic export - end expectations [37]. - With the change of the main contract, the delivery pressure of the near - month contract is prominent, and there are opportunities for the spread to widen [37]. - The supply of coking coal has rebounded but the increase is limited. The downstream replenishment has slowed down but there is still room for replenishment. The overall inventory pressure is not large, so the upward and downward driving spaces are both limited. The near - month 01 contract has limited game space, and the far - month 05 contract has limited opportunities for a phased rebound [37]. - The coke production of steel mills and independent coking enterprises shows a weak and stable trend. The iron - water output may decline seasonally, limiting the incremental space for coke demand. After the fourth price increase and the decline of coking coal prices, coking enterprise profits have improved, but steel mill profits are under pressure, which may intensify the game between steel and coking enterprises and reduce the possibility of further price increases [39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Since November, the double - coking futures market has gradually weakened. As of November 26, the main coking coal contract fell 15.67% monthly with a decrease of 197,000 lots in open interest; the main coke contract fell 9.2% monthly with a decrease of 4,301 lots in open interest [7]. - On November 11, affected by the NDRC's winter supply - guarantee meeting, the market's tight - supply expectation loosened, with a large decline on that day, reversing the previous strong - oscillation trend. Later, due to the lack of policy - expectation drive, the spot market was affected by the futures market sentiment, and the transaction price weakened. With the approaching contract change, the near - month contract faced delivery pressure, and the downward pressure on the market increased [7]. 3.2 Data Analysis 3.2.1 Impact of NDRC Meeting on Coal Supply - Side Contraction Expectation - On November 11, 2025, the NDRC organized a video conference on energy supply - guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, arranging work in aspects such as stabilizing energy production and supply, ensuring contract performance, peak - period supply - guarantee, and key protection of people's livelihood energy use [9]. 3.2.2 Domestic Coking Coal Supply - As of the week of November 21, the coking - coal开工率 of 523 sample mines was 86.94%, 3.99% lower than the same period last year, and the daily output of clean coal was 758,000 tons, a decrease of 37,800 tons compared to last year. The开工 rate of 314 sample coal - washing plants was 37.56%, 2.91% lower than last year, and the daily output of clean coal was 276,300 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons compared to last year. However, the supply has rebounded compared to October [12]. - As of the weekly statistics on November 22, the weekly customs clearance volume at Ganqimao Port was 914,490 tons. Although it declined compared to the beginning of the month, the overall customs clearance volume in November was significantly higher than that in October [12]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal Imports - In October 2025, China imported 10.5932 million tons of coking coal, a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year increase of 6.39%. The imports from Australia and Indonesia increased month - on - month. The imports from Mongolia decreased due to the National Day holiday but were still 36.4% higher than last year. The imports from Russia decreased slightly, and the imports from the US were still zero [13][15]. 3.2.4 Coking Coal Upstream Inventory - As of the week of November 21, the clean - coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 1.8592 million tons, a decrease of 1.4167 million tons compared to the same period last year; the clean - coal inventory of sample coal - washing plants was 3.0283 million tons, a decrease of 480,400 tons compared to last year; the port coking - coal inventory was 2.915 million tons, a decrease of 1.7726 million tons compared to last year. Since November, the inventory - depletion rate of upstream enterprises has slowed down, with a slight inventory build - up, but the overall inventory pressure is not large [20]. 3.2.5 Coking Coal Downstream Inventory - As of November 21, the coking - coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 10.3819 million tons, an increase of 1.2162 million tons compared to last year, and the inventory - available days were 12.45 days, an increase of 2.11 days compared to last year; the coking - coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.9708 million tons, an increase of 532,100 tons compared to last year, and the inventory - available days were 12.97 days, an increase of 1.01 days compared to last year. Since November, the replenishment willingness of independent coking enterprises has weakened, mainly focusing on inventory depletion, while steel mills have slightly replenished coking - coal inventory. Overall, the downstream inventory - replenishment enthusiasm is not high [23]. 3.2.6 Coke Production Capacity Utilization - As of the week of November 21, the production - capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 71.71%, 0.07% higher than the same period last year, and the daily output of metallurgical coke was 626,700 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons compared to last year; the coke production - capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.23%, 0.09% higher than last year, and the daily coke output was 462,200 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared to last year. Since November, the coke production - capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills have shown a weak and stable trend, and the coke supply pressure is not large [25]. 3.2.7 Iron - Water Output and Coke Demand - As of the week of November 21, the blast - furnace production - capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 88.58%, 0.05% higher than the same period last year, and the daily iron - water output was 2.3628 million tons, an increase of 4,800 tons compared to last year; the weekly domestic coke consumption was 1.0633 million tons, an increase of 22,000 tons compared to last year. Since November, the daily iron - water output has remained stable at around 2.36 million tons, supporting coke consumption. However, from a seasonal perspective, there is room for a decline in iron - water output, limiting the incremental space for coke demand [28]. 3.2.8 Coke Inventory - As of the week of November 21, the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 652,900 tons, a decrease of 141,800 tons compared to the same period last year; the coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 6.2234 million tons, an increase of 267,000 tons compared to last year; the port coke inventory was 1.93 million tons, an increase of 158,200 tons compared to last year. Since November, the production and sales of independent coking enterprises have been relatively balanced, with no obvious inventory build - up. Steel mills have mainly reduced coke inventory, and the enthusiasm for port cargo collection is weak. Overall, the coke inventory pressure is not large [30]. 3.2.9 Coke Price Increase - In November 2025, the third and fourth rounds of coke price increases were implemented, with a cumulative increase of 200 - 220 yuan/ton. As of November 21, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 19 yuan/ton, and the profitability has improved. The high price of coking coal has increased the production cost of coke, and coking enterprises have transferred the pressure through price increases. As of November 21, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 37.66%, and their profits have been eroded due to the high - price fluctuation of raw materials and the low price of finished products [33]. 3.3 Future Market Outlook - In December, macro - factors such as domestic political meetings and the Fed's interest - rate decision will affect the market [37]. - For coking coal, due to limited supply increase and downstream replenishment, the near - month 01 contract has limited game space, and the far - month 05 contract has limited rebound space. Attention should be paid to the impact of cold weather and policy expectations on supply and demand [37]. - For coke, the production shows a weak and stable trend, and the demand growth is limited. After the price increase, coking enterprise profits have improved, but steel mill profits are under pressure, which may intensify the game between the two and reduce the possibility of further price increases [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - situation shows that US non - farm data is mixed, the market awaits more data, and Fed officials' speeches are mostly hawkish. The market's bet on further rate cuts in December has declined, the US dollar index is under pressure, and risk preference has decreased. The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has stable supply and demand characteristics, with inventory reduction. The aluminum market's fundamentals have few contradictions, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. The long - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is affected by the macro - situation, and it is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - The aluminum market has both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include stable domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity, improved demand and inventory reduction, and tight overseas aluminum supply. Bearish factors are the reduced expectation of Fed rate cuts in December and weak risk preference [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US non - farm employment data in September was mixed. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The market is waiting for more data, and Fed officials' speeches are mostly hawkish, reducing the market's expectation of rate cuts in December. The US dollar index is under pressure, and risk preference has decreased [6][11]. - The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged for six consecutive months. The State Council is promoting "two - heavy" construction and consumption - promoting policies [6][15]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has stable production capacity, and the supply is stable. The demand shows seasonal characteristics, and the inventory has decreased. The fundamentals of aluminum have few contradictions, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Shanghai aluminum's trend is affected by the macro - situation, and it is recommended to buy on dips [6]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for aluminum: Stable domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity in December, improved demand and inventory reduction, and tight overseas aluminum supply [9]. - Bearish factors for aluminum: Reduced expectation of Fed rate cuts in December and weak risk preference [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Aluminum Bauxite**: In October, the national aluminum bauxite production was 477.23 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. The supply in Henan has recovered, but that in Shanxi is still tight. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on imports is ending, and the import volume in December is expected to increase [17][20]. - **Alumina**: In October, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina was 778.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. The operating capacity is at a high level but has slightly decreased. The production profit of some enterprises has turned negative, and it is expected that the alumina price will fluctuate at a low level [24]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.13% year - on - year and 3.52% month - on - month. The aluminum water ratio increased. In November, due to environmental protection policies and seasonal consumption weakness, the aluminum water ratio is expected to decline [27]. - **Aluminum Processing**: The average weekly operating rate of processing enterprises increased by 0.4% to 62%. Each downstream sector is in a weak state, and downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand [31]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly to 544,075 tons, and SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 1.38% to 114,899 tons. As of November 17, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 637,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from last Thursday. The aluminum ingot social inventory has been fluctuating, and the current inventory level is not high [42][45]. - **Price and Premium**: On November 20, the average price premium of Shanghai Wuma aluminum was stable at - 10 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium widened to - 31.16 US dollars/ton [49]. - **Recycled Aluminum**: In October, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 645,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons month - on - month. The operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry increased to 60.5% as of November 13, a week - on - week increase of 1.4% [53][57]. - **Unwrought Aluminum Alloy**: In September 2025, the import of unwrought aluminum alloy was about 82,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12,500 tons (13.2%). It is expected that the import increase in October will be limited and lower than the same period last year [61]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: As of November 21, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 75,200 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from last week, and the factory inventory was 57,900 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last week [66]. 3.4后市研判 - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost of cast aluminum is affected by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand has resilience. The short - term price of aluminum alloy is expected to stabilize and fluctuate [67]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: The recent trend of Shanghai aluminum is greatly affected by the macro - situation. It is expected that the adjustment will continue, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to buy on dips [69].

Report Summary - During the period from November 19th to November 25th, 2025, rainfall in the main Southeast Asian natural rubber producing areas increased compared to the previous cycle. High-precipitation areas north of the equator were mainly concentrated in Vietnam and southern Thailand, while most other areas had low precipitation, increasing the impact on rubber tapping. South of the equator, high-precipitation areas were mainly in western Indonesia and western Malaysia, with medium rainfall in most other areas, also increasing the impact on rubber tapping [5]. - The synthetic rubber market remained volatile this week. On Friday, the market was significantly affected by the macro environment. Due to the non-farm payroll data, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation weakened, putting pressure on global financial assets and affecting commodity sentiment. Fundamentally, domestic rubber producing areas are gradually entering the production reduction and suspension period, and overseas main producing areas are easily affected by rainfall, resulting in limited raw material supply and stable to slightly stronger prices, providing cost support for rubber. Natural rubber inventories increased slightly overall, while inventories in Qingdao Free Trade Zone decreased slightly, with overall inventory pressure not significant. The supply-demand contradiction of synthetic rubber is more prominent than that of natural rubber. Since this year, the capacity expansion of butadiene and synthetic rubber has accelerated, with supply at a relatively high level. Recently, the capacity utilization rates of both all-steel and semi-steel tire enterprises have declined, especially the semi-steel tire enterprises, showing the seasonal off-season effect. The overall tire inventory reduction pressure is large, suppressing the overall tire capacity utilization rate. The supply-demand imbalance has put obvious pressure on the butadiene rubber market. Overall, the natural rubber market lacks prominent contradictions and is likely to move in a volatile manner. Synthetic rubber prices are likely to be weak due to supply-demand mismatch, but the short-term stabilization of butadiene prices provides some support below. Attention should be paid to the widening spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber [6]. - In October 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 510,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 14.27% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 17.27% [7]. - In September, the US non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, more than twice the expected figure, but the non-farm payrolls in July and August were revised down by a total of 33,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in September, the highest since October 2021. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 8,000 to 220,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims reached a four-year high. After the data release, swap contracts continued to show that the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December was low [7]. Bull and Bear Focus - Bullish factors include that natural rubber inventory pressure is not obvious and natural rubber raw material prices are supported. Bearish factors include the weakening of tire enterprise operating rates and the weakening of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, which puts pressure on financial assets [10]. Data Analysis - As of November 20th, the price of Thai raw material latex was 57 Thai baht per kilogram, slightly up from last week. The price of latex in Yunnan was 13,900 yuan per ton, and the raw material price in Hainan was 13,000 yuan per ton, remaining stable from last week. Domestic rubber producing areas are gradually entering the production reduction and suspension period, and overseas main producing areas are easily affected by rainfall, resulting in limited raw material supply and stable to slightly stronger prices, providing cost support for rubber [11]. - As of November 16th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3,100 tons or 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%, and the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 0.05%, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.53%. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.37%, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.71%. As of November 16th, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.062 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5,000 tons or 0.5%. China's total social inventory of dark rubber was 670,000 tons, an increase of 0.8%. China's total social inventory of light rubber was 392,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.01% [14]. - This week, the price of butadiene, the raw material for butadiene rubber, continued to rebound. Although both the production and inventory of butadiene increased, the price had fallen to the lowest level of the year, attracting some buyers to enter the market at low prices. In addition, the short-term upward trend in the market stimulated the "bottom-fishing" sentiment of downstream buyers, and the trading atmosphere improved significantly. At the same time, the good performance of the main downstream products boosted butadiene, and suppliers raised prices, gradually reducing the low-price supply in the market and pushing up the trading center. However, as the price increased, sellers were more willing to sell, and some high-price transactions began to face resistance. As of November 20th, the delivered price in the central Shandong region was 7,480 - 7,600 yuan per ton, and the ex-tank self-pickup price in East China was around 7,100 yuan per ton. As of the week of November 21st, the theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber was 788.2857 yuan per ton, an increase of 181.43 yuan per ton from last week. The price of butadiene rubber moved in tandem with the raw material butadiene price, and the production enterprise's profit continued to improve [15]. - According to Steel Union data, as of the week of November 21st, the production of high-cis butadiene rubber was 29,166 tons, an increase of 1,090 tons from last week. The in-plant inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,630 tons, an increase of 780 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 4,880 tons, a decrease of 90 tons from last week. This week, enterprises had good production profits and high willingness to operate, with production remaining at a high level. However, downstream buyers were resistant to the price, and the trading atmosphere weakened, resulting in poor inventory reduction in the factory [18]. - As of the week of November 21st, the capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a month-on-month decrease of 2.25% but a year-on-year increase of 1.56%. The average inventory available days of sample enterprises were 40.24 days, a month-on-month increase of 0.69 days but a year-on-year decrease of 0.57 days. The capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.63% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%. The in-plant inventory available days of sample enterprises were 45.86 days, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 days and a year-on-year increase of 7.69 days. This week, the capacity utilization rates of both all-steel and semi-steel tire enterprises declined, especially the semi-steel tire enterprises, showing the seasonal off-season effect. The overall tire inventory reduction pressure is large, suppressing the overall tire capacity utilization rate [19]. - As of November 20th, the spread of the "RU-NR" January contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spread of the "NR-BR" main contract fluctuated, mainly due to the support from the raw material side [21]. Market Outlook - From a macro perspective, due to the non-farm payroll data, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation weakened, putting pressure on global financial assets and affecting commodity sentiment. Fundamentally, domestic rubber producing areas are gradually entering the production reduction and suspension period, and overseas main producing areas are easily affected by rainfall, resulting in limited raw material supply and stable to slightly stronger prices, providing cost support for rubber. Natural rubber inventories increased slightly overall, while inventories in Qingdao Free Trade Zone decreased slightly, with overall inventory pressure not significant. The supply-demand contradiction of synthetic rubber is more prominent than that of natural rubber. Since this year, the capacity expansion of butadiene and synthetic rubber has accelerated, with supply at a relatively high level. Recently, the capacity utilization rates of both all-steel and semi-steel tire enterprises have declined, especially the semi-steel tire enterprises, showing the seasonal off-season effect. The overall tire inventory reduction pressure is large, suppressing the overall tire capacity utilization rate. The supply-demand imbalance has put obvious pressure on the butadiene rubber market. Overall, the natural rubber market lacks prominent contradictions and is likely to move in a volatile manner. Synthetic rubber prices are likely to be weak due to supply-demand mismatch, but the short-term stabilization of butadiene prices provides some support below. Attention should be paid to the widening spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the asphalt futures market showed a narrow - range oscillation. After a previous sharp decline, there is a rebound repair momentum, and the downward momentum has weakened. The social inventory of asphalt continues to decline. Although demand has entered the off - season, more negative feedback from the demand side is needed for a unilateral decline in the futures market [8]. - In the future, the futures market lacks bullish drivers and is expected to continue a weak trend. As the asphalt downstream enters the off - season, the pressure of supply surplus is emerging. The expectation of crude oil supply surplus exerts long - term pressure on the futures market. Recently, the cease - fire negotiation between Russia and Ukraine is expected to continue, and the geopolitical risk premium has declined. In the short term, after a large decline, there is a rebound repair momentum, but the oil price is under pressure in the short term, and the cost - side support has weakened. It is expected that the futures market will continue a wide - range oscillation [8][51]. - It is recommended to focus on the range of 2900 - 3100 yuan/ton for the BU2601 contract [8][51] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Market focus: The cease - fire negotiation between Russia and Ukraine is expected to continue, and the geopolitical risk premium has declined; the US EIA crude oil inventory decreased this week; the asphalt cracking spread decreased month - on - month [7]. - Key data: As of November 19, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 24.8%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points from the previous statistical period; as of November 21, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 44.1 tons, a decrease of 7.3 tons from last week; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 64.2 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons from last week; the social inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 79.4 tons, a decrease of 3.1 tons from last week [7] 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt: Supply has decreased [11]. - Bearish factors for asphalt: Demand has weakened, and the oil price has declined [11] 3.3 Macro Analysis - The US and Russia are discussing a framework plan to end the conflict. The US envoy met with the Russian envoy in Miami last month to discuss the plan, which requires Ukraine to make major territorial concessions to Russia. The plan has been rejected by Kiev before. The US government is following the model of mediating the cease - fire in Gaza last month [12]. - Russia's response: The Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that Russia has not received any relevant information from the US through official channels. Such news should be evaluated based on official communication rather than media reports [12]. - Zelensky has received the US peace plan draft. The US believes that this plan may bring a breakthrough to the stagnant diplomatic process. Zelensky is expected to talk with President Trump soon [12]. - The discussion between the US and Russia on ending the conflict conveys a short - term change in the US attitude towards Russia. The market expects that the improvement of US - Russia relations will lead to the relaxation of US sanctions on the Russian energy sector, driving the oil price down. However, due to the volatility of US - Russia relations, the driving force is not sustainable, and the oil price generally maintains a wide - range oscillation [12] 3.4 Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - As of November 21, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 44.1 tons, a decrease of 7.3 tons from last week. Output from local refineries decreased, and that from PetroChina and Sinopec decreased slightly. The refinery operating rate is in a seasonal decline, and supply is expected to continue to decline [13]. - As of November 19, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 24.8%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points from the previous statistical period. The operating rates in East China and Shandong decreased significantly. As refineries enter the seasonal maintenance period, the operating rate is expected to decline, and the supply pressure will gradually weaken [22] Demand - As of November 21, the weekly shipment volume of domestic asphalt was 37 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons from the previous statistical date. The shipment volume is still at a low level this year. In the north, the low - temperature weather has led to the completion of downstream road construction, and the demand improvement in the south is not obvious. As demand enters the off - season, the shipment volume faces seasonal decline pressure [23]. - As of November 21, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 10.59%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points from last week. The capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt is in a seasonal decline, and it still faces downward pressure as the downstream enters the off - season [26] Inventory - As of November 21, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 64.2 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons from the previous week, mainly due to the decline in enterprise inventory in North China [33]. - As of November 21, the social inventory of domestic asphalt was 79.4 tons, a decrease of 3.1 tons from the previous week, continuing the downward trend since August. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory decline speed [40] Spread - As of November 21, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing dilution was - 571 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 42 yuan/ton. The domestic asphalt basis was 182 yuan/ton. As of November 19, the asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio was 51.25 [49] 4. Market Outlook - The futures market lacks bullish drivers and is expected to continue a weak trend. As the asphalt downstream enters the off - season, the pressure of supply surplus is emerging. The expectation of crude oil supply surplus exerts long - term pressure on the futures market. Recently, the cease - fire negotiation between Russia and Ukraine is expected to continue, and the geopolitical risk premium has declined. In the short term, after a large decline, there is a rebound repair momentum, but the oil price is under pressure in the short term, and the cost - side support has weakened. It is expected that the futures market will continue a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to focus on the range of 2900 - 3100 yuan/ton for the BU2601 contract [51]

Report Summary - The report is a weekly analysis of the crude oil market, covering macro - analysis, multi - empty focus, supply - demand analysis, and future market judgment [8]. - This week, the oil price first rose and then fell, showing an overall weak and volatile trend. The influencing factors of crude oil are mixed. Geopolitical disturbances provided support for the oil price at the beginning of the week, while the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement and the expectation of supply surplus put pressure on the oil price [8]. - It is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $56 - 61 per barrel [9]. Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Geopolitical disturbances [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: Progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement and refined oil entering the off - season of demand [11]. Macro Analysis - The US and Russia are discussing a framework plan to end the conflict. The plan requires Ukraine to make major territorial concessions to Russia, but the Russian side says it has not received relevant information through official channels. Ukrainian President Zelensky has received a peace plan draft from the US [12]. - The discussion of the framework plan for ending the conflict between the US and Russia makes the market expect the US to relax sanctions on the Russian energy sector, which drives the oil price down. However, considering the repeatability of geopolitics, the sustainability of the geopolitical easing drive is not strong [12]. Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - As of the week ending November 14, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 28,000 barrels per day to 13.834 million barrels per day. Since August, US crude oil production has rebounded month - on - month, and there is still a probability of further increase [13]. - As of the week ending November 14, the total number of US oil rigs was 417, the same as the previous value. It is expected to remain at a low level this year due to factors such as the contraction of US oil capital expenditure, the decline of resource grade, and policy adjustment [15]. Demand - As of the week ending November 14, the operating rate of US refineries was 90%, a 0.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, indicating that US refineries have ended the seasonal maintenance phase and are expected to drive the recovery of crude oil consumption [17]. - As of the week ending October 31, US crude oil implied demand decreased by 843,000 barrels per day month - on - month, while the implied demand for motor gasoline production increased by 189,000 barrels per day [24]. - In October, the operating rate of 16 European refineries was 80.74%, a 3 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, and it is expected to recover by the end of the fourth quarter [25]. - As of November 20, the operating rate of domestic major refineries was 75.69%, a 2.62 - percentage - point decrease from the previous statistical period, entering the seasonal maintenance phase. The operating rate of domestic independent refineries was 62.97%, a 2 - percentage - point increase from the previous period [30]. - As of November 21, the comprehensive refining profit of domestic major refineries was 854.72 yuan per ton, a 150.6 - yuan increase from the previous statistical period. The comprehensive refining profit of domestic independent refineries was 183.13 yuan per ton, a 6.54 - yuan increase from the previous period [35]. Inventory - As of the week ending November 14, the US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.426 million barrels, and the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 533,000 barrels. The decrease in US crude oil production and the increase in refinery operating rate led to a month - on - month decrease in EIA crude oil inventory [42]. - As of the week ending November 14, the EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma decreased by 698,000 barrels, and the EIA gasoline inventory increased by 2.327 million barrels [46]. Crack Spread - As of November 19, the crack spread of low - sulfur crude oil in Louisiana, US Gulf, was $24.47 per barrel, showing a month - on - month decline. Downstream consumer demand is still relatively strong, which supports the crack spread to some extent [47]. Future Market Judgment - The expectation of crude oil supply surplus remains the main pressure source in the market. In the short term, the oil price may continue to be under pressure. Although the oil price is expected to show an overall weak and volatile pattern, considering the repeatability of geopolitics, the sustainability of the geopolitical easing drive is not strong [51].