焦煤焦炭周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2025-09-12 目录 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 01 1. 据百年建筑调研，截至9月9日，样本建筑工地资金到位率为59.24%，周环比下降0.16个百分点。其中，非房建项目资金 到位率为61.03%，周环比上升0.02个百分点；房建项目资金到位率为50.75%，周环比下降0.64个百分点。本期建筑工地 项目资金到位率下滑，其中非房建项目保持微增，房建项目资金减少较明显。 本周双焦盘面维持横盘震荡，振幅有所收窄。从宏观看，海外经济数据表现较弱，虽提振美联储降息预期，但短期也反映出 海外需求预期减弱。从基本面看，成材市场表现不佳，独立焦企和钢厂炼焦煤补库积极性依旧不高，但目前焦煤上游库存压 力已明显减轻，同时阅兵活动结束后，双焦供需两端均在缓慢复苏，铁水产量再度回升至240万吨以上带动双焦需求存支撑， 也使得价格下行驱动减弱。目前原料端价格的坚挺侵蚀钢厂利润，随着焦煤价格处在弱势盘整阶段，钢厂对焦企的提降意愿 逐步增强，首轮提降落地不久，第二轮提降再起。 ...

橡胶周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2025-09-12 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 主要观点 市场焦点 2. 2025年是中国对新能源汽车免征车辆购置税的最后一年，2026年和2027年购买新能源汽车的个人和单位，将恢复征收 车购税，但依然可以享受减半征税的优惠。 3. 欧洲央行连续第二次会议按兵不动，认为通胀压力已得到有效遏制，且欧元区经济保持稳健态势。交易员削减对该行 宽松政策的押注，暗示降息周期已经结束。 4. 墨西哥拟对有关贸易伙伴提高进口关税税率，商务部新闻发言人对此回应称，注意到有关报道，将密切关注墨方提税 动向，并对有关最终措施进行认真评估。中方将根据实际情况采取必要措施，坚决维护自身正当合法权益。 1. 天然橡胶原料端价格稳中偏强。 2. 天然橡胶延续小幅去库。 3. 顺丁橡胶原料丁二烯价格窄幅波动。 4. 顺丁橡胶库存去化不畅。 5. 轮胎整体产能利用率小幅回升。 多空焦点 PART 02 多空因素分析 | 多方因素 | 空方因素 | | --- | --- | | 天气扰动，橡胶原料价格稳 ...

Report Summary Market Focus - China held a grand ceremony to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War on September 3. China's economic sentiment generally continued to expand. The Fed's Beige Book reported little or no change in economic activity in most US regions, with rising prices and little or no net change in overall employment. On September 4, US President Trump signed an executive order to implement the US-Japan trade agreement, imposing a 15% benchmark tariff on almost all Japanese imports and providing separate industry-specific treatments for automobiles, auto parts, and aerospace products [5]. Key Data - China's official manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI in August were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, up 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points month-on-month. Industries like general equipment and railway, ship, and aerospace equipment had production and operation activity expectation indices above 58%. The US job openings in July dropped from 7.36 million in June to 1.181 million, a 10 - month low, far below the expected 7.382 million. The US ADP employment in August increased by only 54,000, well below the expected 65,000. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August rose from 49.8 in July to 50.7, a three - year high, and the composite PMI reached a 12 - month high [5]. Main Views - Steel prices continued to decline this week due to weaker coking coal price support and continuous steel inventory accumulation. Despite the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts overseas, domestic steel was in the off - season with increasing inventory, leading to a weak performance of ferrous metals. Affected by previous production restrictions, steel mill output and demand decreased, with accelerated inventory accumulation of rebar and increased hot - rolled coil inventory. After the steel mills resumed production on September 4, supply - demand pressure might intensify. However, cost support from the improved supply - demand structure of the cost side would limit the decline. With the release of the growth - stabilizing plan for the electronic information manufacturing industry on Friday, market expectations improved. Steel prices were expected to follow coking coal, with short - term fluctuations to find bottom support and wait for signals of improved peak - season demand. Iron ore was relatively strong in ferrous metals supported by the expectation of steel mill复产. Although iron ore prices dropped at the beginning of the week due to the decline in coking coal prices, the expectation of steel mill复产 and inventory replenishment was strong. Despite a significant drop in hot metal production this period, steel mills were expected to be motivated to produce with high profits. However, with weakening downstream steel demand, increasing inventory, and rising iron ore shipments, continuous upward movement of iron ore prices was under pressure, and it was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5]. Bull - Bear Focus Bull - Bear Factors for Rebar - Bull factors: improved manufacturing sentiment in August, rising expectation of Fed rate cuts, and the introduction of growth - stabilizing plans for ten industries. Bear factors: expected increase in production after steel mill复产, a significant drop in steel demand, and accelerated inventory accumulation of rebar and increased hot - rolled coil inventory [8]. Bull - Bear Factors for Iron Ore - Bull factors: improved manufacturing sentiment in August, rising expectation of Fed rate cuts, the introduction of growth - stabilizing plans for ten industries, and the expectation of inventory replenishment driven by steel mill复产. Bear factors: a significant drop in hot metal production, seasonal decline in downstream steel demand, and increasing iron ore shipments [11]. Data Analysis Rebar - Spot prices continued to decline, and the basis weakened. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was at a relatively high level [24][40]. Iron Ore - Spot prices were firm, and the basis converged to near par. Iron ore shipments globally and from Australia and Brazil, as well as arrivals at 45 ports, showed certain trends. Hot metal production of 247 steel enterprises decreased, and iron ore import inventory and consumption also had corresponding changes [43][46][52]. Market Outlook - Steel prices were expected to follow coking coal, with short - term fluctuations to find bottom support and wait for signals of improved peak - season demand. Iron ore was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term due to upward pressure from weakening downstream demand, increasing inventory, and rising shipments [59][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic supply side of aluminum has little change, with the operating capacity increasing steadily. As the seasonal off - season ends, downstream consumption shows signs of recovery. The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 61.7% this week, and the "Golden September" effect is gradually emerging. With the improvement of aluminum demand, the accumulation rate of aluminum ingot social inventory slows down. The peak season may continue to boost aluminum demand and support the trend of Shanghai aluminum. Shanghai aluminum is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average at 20600 [7]. - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is heating up, and the market focus is on this week's US non - farm payrolls data. In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from last month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing boom level [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: US employment data in August was weak, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut this month and weakening the US dollar index. The focus is on this week's US non - farm payrolls data. In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from last month, showing an improvement in the manufacturing boom level [6]. - **Main View**: Domestic aluminum supply has little change, while demand is recovering. The overall operating rate of downstream processing leading enterprises rose to 61.7%. The social inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots slows down. The peak season may boost aluminum demand and support Shanghai aluminum. Shanghai aluminum is oscillating, with support at the 60 - day moving average of 20600 [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shanghai aluminum is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average at 20600 [8]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Multi - factor**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is heating up; the "Golden September" is approaching, and consumption is expected to improve; the domestic spot discount narrows [11]. - **Empty - factor**: The price of alumina continues to be weak; the social inventory may continue to accumulate; the overseas spot premium increases [11]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Aluminum Bauxite**: From January to July 2025, China's aluminum bauxite output was 3583 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.21%. In July, the output was 543.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.42%. Affected by the rainy season in Guinea, the shipment volume of aluminum bauxite decreased, and it is expected that the import volume from Guinea will decline from August to October [19][24]. - **Alumina**: Recently, there have been maintenance on the supply side, but it has little impact on the total output. The operating capacity is still high, and the inventory is accumulating. The spot price is expected to continue the weak trend [28]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 3.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In August, the operating capacity increased slightly, and the output was 3.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. The growth space of production is limited [31]. - **Downstream Processing**: This week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 61.7%. It is expected that the operating rate will increase more widely in mid - September [38]. - **Downstream Demand**: In July 2025, China's aluminum product output was 5.484 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. The downstream demand is weak [42]. - **Automobile**: In July 2025, China's new energy vehicle output was 1.176 million, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%; the automobile output was 2.51 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. It is expected that automobile consumption will continue to grow [46]. - **Real Estate**: From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12.0%. The new housing construction area decreased by 19.4%, and the completed area decreased by 16.5%. Some cities have introduced real - estate optimization policies, and the real - estate market may change [51]. - **Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory is stable at 479,600 tons, while the SHFE aluminum inventory decreased last week, with a weekly increase of 0.795% to 125,596 tons. As of September 4, the social inventory of Chinese aluminum ingots was 620,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from Monday [54][58]. - **Spot Premium**: On September 4, the average price premium of Shanghai Wumao aluminum was - 10 yuan/ton, and the discount narrowed; the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium was 3.6 US dollars/ton, and the premium increased [62]. - **Recycled Aluminum**: In July, the output of recycled aluminum alloy was 624,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. It is expected that the output in August will decline. As of August 29, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry was 53.5%, a month - on - year increase of 0.4% [66][70]. - **Import and Export**: In July 2025, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.6%. The export volume was 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.5% [74]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: As of September 5, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 57,900 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from last week, and the in - plant inventory was 59,000 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons from last week [78]. 3.4后市研判 - **Aluminum Alloy**: The futures price of aluminum alloy follows the electrolytic aluminum futures and remains at a high level [81]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average at 20600 [85].

1. Report Summary - The weak employment data released by the US strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this month, and the US dollar index weakened. The current macro - sentiment still follows the change of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the performance of this week's US non - farm payrolls data is the focus [5][11]. - The domestic manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing sentiment improved [5][13]. - The tightness in the copper mine end persists. The spot processing fee of domestic copper concentrates has declined continuously, and there is a large difference between holders and smelters on the processing fee. The estimated output of domestic electrolytic copper in August is 1.1683 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 15.3%. Domestic smelters' willingness to cut production is still not strong, which in turn supports the copper concentrate quotation [5]. - Copper inventory changes are not significant. The inventory of domestic electrolytic copper has not increased significantly. The Fed's interest - rate cut provides upward space for copper prices. The tight copper mine situation and the improvement of the macro - situation jointly support copper prices. The trading strategy is that copper prices may oscillate stronger, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the 81,000 mark above [5]. 2. Bull - Bear Focus Bullish Factors - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is heating up [8]. - The spot processing fee continues to decline, and the tightness at the mine end still exists [8]. - The spot continues to maintain a premium [8]. Bearish Factors - Social inventory continues to accumulate [8]. - The output of electrolytic copper continues to remain at a high level [8]. 3. Data Analysis International Economic Data - The US 7 - month core PCE price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations and the previous value. The August ISM manufacturing index rose slightly from 48 to 48.7, lower than the expected 49, and has been below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The new order index expanded for the first time since the beginning of this year, but the output index fell back into the contraction range. The number of job openings in July dropped to a 10 - month low. The Fed's Beige Book showed that economic activity in most parts of the US has changed little recently, with price increases and little change in overall employment levels. Fed Governor Waller said that interest - rate cuts should start this month and could be cut multiple times in the next 3 - 6 months [11]. - The ADP employment data in August showed an increase of 54,000 people, lower than expected. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending August 30 was 237,000, higher than expected. The cooling of the US labor market has strengthened the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 97.4% [11]. Domestic Manufacturing Data - The domestic manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing sentiment. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and above the critical point; the PMI of medium - sized enterprises was 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month and below the critical point; the PMI of small enterprises was 46.6%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and below the critical point [13]. Copper - Related Data - **Copper Ore and Concentrate Imports**: In July, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.56 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.96% and a year - on - year increase of 18.45%. The supplies from Chile and Peru both rebounded, with a month - on - month increase of over 10%. Chile's copper output in July was 445,214 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase of 5% and a limited year - on - year increase. However, in late July, a collapse accident occurred in a new mining area of the world's largest underground copper mine of Codelco, and Codelco lowered its 2025 copper production guidance in August [16]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fee**: As of the week of August 29, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 41.2 US dollars per dry ton, down 2.59 US dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The spot processing fee of domestic copper concentrates has declined continuously, and the tightness at the mine end will continue to trouble the copper market [20]. - **Refined Copper Production and Imports**: In July, China's refined copper production was 1.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%. Affected by the shortage of cold material supply, some smelters started to cut production slightly. In August, the number of smelters cutting production due to the shortage of copper concentrates and cold materials increased compared with July. In July, China's refined copper imports were 336,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 12.05%. The import loss narrowed in July, and imports remained at a relatively high level within the year [25]. - **Scrap Copper Imports**: In July, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.98%. The supplies from Asian countries such as Japan, Thailand, and South Korea increased significantly. The main driving factor for the increase in scrap copper imports was strong domestic demand [28]. - **Copper Scrap - Refined Spread**: As of September 4, the copper scrap - refined spread was around - 305 yuan per ton, which was not conducive to refined copper consumption [32]. - **Copper Inventory**: LME copper inventory rebounded last week to a three - month high of 158,575 tons. SHFE copper inventory decreased slightly in the week of August 29, with a weekly decrease of 2.39% to 79,748 tons. COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate to a new high since January 2004. On September 4, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 148,100 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons from the 1st [50]. - **Copper Premium**: On September 4, the premium of Shanghai Wumaohui 1 copper spot was around 135 yuan per ton, and the premium range narrowed. The LME 0 - 3 spot discount was around - 66.89 US dollars per ton, and the discount range narrowed [54]. 4. Future Outlook - Copper prices may oscillate stronger, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the 81,000 mark above [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures market showed a pattern of weakening in the first four trading days and strengthening in the afternoon of Friday, recovering the weekly decline. With the end of the parade, the industry will see production recovery, and the market supply - demand structure will dominate the market. Entering the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", attention should be paid to the degree of demand improvement. Currently, the coking coal market is in a weak equilibrium, and short - term fluctuations are the main trend [6][38]. - The increase in coke prices has eroded some of the steel mills' profits. The steel mills' acceptance of coke price increases has gradually slowed down, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises. The eighth round of price increases is difficult to implement, and the steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts. In the short term, the coke futures market will fluctuate with coking coal [33][41]. Summary According to the Directory Report Summary (PART 01) - In the first four trading days of this week, the double - coking futures market weakened, and on Friday afternoon, it strengthened to recover the decline. The market bets that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is close to 100%. The domestic central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation on September 5. The macro - sentiment warmed up on Friday, and commodities and the stock market rose in resonance. After the parade, the industry production will recover, and the supply - demand structure will dominate the market. The coking coal market is in a weak equilibrium, and short - term fluctuations are the main trend [6]. - As of September 2, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites improved, with a slightly narrower increase, and the improvement in housing construction projects was greater. Starting from September 4, Tangshan independent steel mills gradually resumed normal production. In early September, some coal mines in Shanxi had large - scale and regional shutdowns, mainly in Changzhi, Linfen, and Jinzhong, and most shutdowns were for 2 - 5 days, with some resuming production on the evening of September 3 [7]. - The supply of coking coal has shrunk, upstream inventory has decreased slightly, independent coking enterprises have continued to reduce coking coal inventory, steel mills mainly purchase raw materials based on rigid demand, the overall coke output has slightly declined, iron - water production has decreased, coke consumption has followed suit, and the profitability of coking enterprises has continued to improve [7]. Multi - Empty Focus (PART 02) - **Bullish Factors**: Reduced inventory pressure of coking coal, expected reduction in coking coal supply, expected increase in iron - water production after the parade, high certainty of Fed rate cuts, and loose domestic liquidity [10]. - **Bearish Factors**: Temporary decline in iron - water production leading to weakening coke demand, and low enthusiasm for downstream coking coal replenishment [10]. Data Analysis (PART 03) - **Coking Coal Supply**: The operating rates of 314 sample coal - washing plants and 523 sample mines decreased this week, and the daily output of clean coal decreased. The customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port slightly declined. With the end of the parade, some coal mines have resumed production [13]. - **Coking Coal Upstream Inventory**: As of September 5, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines and 314 sample coal - washing plants decreased, while the port coking coal inventory increased slightly. The upstream inventory has changed from an increase to a decrease [18]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises' Coking Coal Inventory**: As of September 5, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises decreased, and the inventory - available days decreased. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises increased slightly, and the enthusiasm for replenishing coking coal inventory remained weak [21]. - **Steel Mills' Raw Material Inventory**: As of September 5, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased, and the inventory - available days decreased. The coke inventory increased, and the available days increased. Steel mills mainly purchase raw materials based on rigid demand [25]. - **Coke Output**: As of September 5, the capacity utilization rates and daily output of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel enterprises decreased. The output of coking enterprises changed little, while the output of steel mills decreased significantly due to parade - related production restrictions [27]. - **Iron - Water Production and Coke Consumption**: As of September 5, China's coke consumption and the daily output of iron - water from 247 steel enterprises decreased. The profitability rate of steel enterprises declined. With the end of the parade, steel mills have resumed production, and iron - water production will recover [32]. - **Coking Enterprises' Profitability**: As of September 5, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 64 yuan/ton, and the profitability continued to improve. The seventh round of coke price increases was implemented, but the eighth round is difficult to implement, and steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts [33]. - **Double - Coking Forward - Month Basis Structure**: The spot and futures prices of double - coking are oscillating at high levels [35]. 后市研判 (PART 04) - The market bets that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is close to 100%. The domestic central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation on September 5. After the parade, the industry will see production recovery, and the supply - demand structure will dominate the market. The coking coal market is in a weak equilibrium, and short - term fluctuations are the main trend [38]. - The increase in coke prices has eroded some of the steel mills' profits, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises. The eighth round of price increases is difficult to implement, and the steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts. In the short term, the coke futures market will fluctuate with coking coal [41].

Report Summary - The report focuses on the rubber market from September 3 - 9, 2025, analyzing its macro - and micro - level factors and providing a short - term outlook [5][6] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Rubber fundamentals have no obvious contradictions. With the Fed's potential rate cut boosting monetary easing expectations and post - parade economic policies coming back as the trading mainline, rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [6][28] Summary by Directory Report Summary (PART 01) - Rainfall in Southeast Asian natural rubber main - producing areas changed compared to the previous period, with varying impacts on tapping. The rubber market showed a narrow - range oscillation from Monday to Thursday and a stronger trend on Friday. Macro - factors improved market sentiment, and the cost side was supported. However, tire production utilization declined, and terminal demand had no strong recovery signs [5][6] - The market bets that the probability of the Fed's September rate cut is nearly 100% after the release of disappointing ADP employment data. The central bank will conduct a 1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month buy - out reverse repo operation [7] Multi - Empty Focus (PART 02) - Bullish factors include weather - related supply disruptions leading to stable - to - stronger raw material prices, rubber inventory reduction, and the Fed's potential rate cut with loose domestic funds. Bearish factor is the slight decline in tire operating rates [10] Data Analysis (PART 03) - Natural rubber raw material prices are stable - to - stronger. As of September 4, Thai fresh glue was 55.8 baht/kg, cup - lump was 52.05 baht/kg, Yunnan glue was 14,600 yuan/ton, and Hainan glue was 13,400 yuan/ton [11] - Natural rubber inventory continued to decline slightly. As of August 31, 2025, China's social inventory was 126.5 million tons, down 0.6 million tons month - on - month, and Qingdao's inventory was 60.2 million tons, down 0.4 million tons [14] - The price of butadiene, the raw material for butadiene rubber, fluctuated within a narrow range. As of September 4, the price in Shandong was 9,550 - 9,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 185 yuan/ton [15] - The supply - demand structure of butadiene rubber is relatively loose. As of September 5, the factory inventory decreased by 450 tons, while the trader inventory increased by 640 tons, and production increased by 125 tons [21] - Tire overall capacity utilization decreased. As of September 5, the capacity utilization of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased significantly due to planned maintenance, and terminal demand has not fully recovered [22] - The spread of the three major rubber contracts on the futures market was stable, indicating no internal differentiation in the rubber fundamentals [24] 后市研判 (PART 04) - From a macro perspective, the Fed's potential rate cut and domestic loose funds improved market sentiment. From a fundamental perspective, raw material prices are supported, inventory pressure is reduced, but tire production utilization declined, and terminal demand is weak. Overall, rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of September 5, the fundamentals of asphalt showed a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand. The weekly production and operating rate of asphalt decreased due to refinery turnarounds or overhauls, while the shipments increased slightly, leading to significant declines in factory and social inventories. Recently, the influencing factors of crude oil were mixed, with geopolitical disturbances providing intermittent support to oil prices and expected changes in supply being bearish for oil prices. In the short term, under the combined influence of fundamentals and cost, asphalt had no clear direction and was in a wide - range oscillation. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of asphalt was not prominent, and crude oil fluctuations would dominate the market trend. It was recommended to track the results of OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical developments [7]. - Looking ahead, asphalt was expected to continue its wide - range oscillation under the dual influence of fundamentals and cost. Attention should be paid to the range of 3350 - 3500 yuan/ton for the BU2511 contract. In terms of supply and demand, although demand showed signs of recovery after recent rainfall ended and both social and factory inventories decreased, considering the approaching end of the peak demand season, the demand side might not perform beyond expectations, providing weak support to the market. For crude oil, the recent influencing factors were mixed, with frequent geopolitical disturbances and the news of OPEC+ potential production increase suppressing market sentiment, leaving oil prices without a clear direction. It was advisable to focus on the results of the OPEC+ production meeting and track geopolitical developments [67]. Summary by Directory Report Summary - Market news indicated that OPEC+ would consider another production increase at the Sunday production meeting. The Fed's "Beige Book" showed price increases in all regions, with most reporting "moderate or slight" inflation. US President Trump hinted at implementing second and third - stage oil sanctions against Russia [6]. - As of September 5, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 28.1%, a 1.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous statistical period. The weekly asphalt production was 50.9 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons from the previous week. The factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 64.2 tons, a decrease of 3.2 tons from the previous week, and the social inventory was 122.5 tons, a decrease of 4.5 tons from the previous week. It was recommended to focus on the BU2511 contract in the range of 3350 - 3500 yuan/ton [7]. Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt included inventory decline and raw - material - end disturbances, while bearish factors were demand falling short of expectations and insufficient upward driving force at the cost end [10]. Macroeconomic Analysis - OPEC+ might start a new round of production increase. Two sources said that OPEC+ would consider further increasing oil production at the Sunday meeting to regain market share. Another production increase would mean OPEC+ starting to lift the second - layer production cuts of about 1.65 million barrels per day, 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule. OPEC+ current production policies mainly consisted of three parts, and if OPEC+ increased production at the September meeting, it would strengthen the expectation of market oversupply, and oil prices might test previous lows; if the status quo was maintained, oil prices might recover, but the rebound space was expected to be limited [13]. - Geopolitical uncertainties caused periodic disturbances to oil prices. The Russia - Ukraine tension escalated, European countries' plan to send troops to Ukraine was exposed, and the Israeli military's actions escalated on two fronts [14]. Data Analysis - **Supply**: As of September 5, the weekly asphalt production was 50.9 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons from the previous week, mainly due to some refineries switching production or undergoing maintenance. As of September 3, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 28.1%, a 1.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous statistical period, with more significant declines in the southwest and south China regions. The decrease in the refinery operating rate was mainly due to the decline in refinery profits [15][23]. - **Demand**: As of September 5, the weekly asphalt shipments were 41.2 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons from the previous week, indicating a phased improvement in demand after the end of rainfall. However, the weekly capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt was 15.89%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous week, with more significant declines in the north and central China regions [26][29]. - **Import**: In July, the domestic asphalt imports were 38.05 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 tons and a year - on - year increase of 16.53%. From January to July, the cumulative imports were 210.55 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.5% [37]. - **Export**: In July, the domestic asphalt exports were 5.57 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62 tons. From January to July, the cumulative exports were 33.49 tons, a year - on - year increase of 46.45% [40]. - **Inventory**: As of September 5, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 64.2 tons, a decrease of 3.2 tons from the previous week, and the social inventory was 122.5 tons, a decrease of 4.5 tons from the previous week [7]. - **Spread**: As of September 5, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing dilution was - 614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.9 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of September 3, the asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio was 55.67, and as of September 4, the asphalt basis was 258 yuan/ton [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, influenced by geopolitical and fundamental factors, crude oil prices rose first and then fell, continuing the previous wide - range oscillation pattern. Geopolitical disturbances and potential supply tightening concerns provided intermittent upward momentum, while OPEC+ considering another production increase added supply pressure and suppressed prices. In the short term, the fundamental contradictions of crude oil are not prominent. The expectation of supply surplus in the fourth quarter weighs on prices, but it has not yet been reflected in inventories due to the current peak demand season in the Northern Hemisphere. Geopolitical factors cause only short - term disturbances and cannot form a trend. It is expected that the wide - range oscillation will continue. Attention should be paid to the results of the OPEC+ production meeting and the situation between the US and Venezuela. The recommended trading strategy is to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $60 - $65 per barrel [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market News**: OPEC+ will consider another production increase at the Sunday meeting; the Fed's "Beige Book" shows price increases in all regions with most reporting "moderate or slight" inflation; US President Trump hinted at second and third - stage oil sanctions against Russia [7]. - **Key Data**: US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending August 29 increased by 2.415 million barrels (expected a decrease of 2.031 million barrels, previous value was a decrease of 2.392 million barrels); EIA Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 1.59 million barrels (previous value was a decrease of 0.838 million barrels); EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.509 million barrels (previous value was an increase of 0.776 million barrels) [7]. - **Main Viewpoints**: Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical and fundamental factors, showing a wide - range oscillation. The recommended trading strategy is to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $60 - $65 per barrel [8]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Side Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Geopolitical disturbances and shale oil cost support [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: Fading expectation of the consumption peak season and OPEC+'s planned production increase [11]. 3.3 Macro Analysis - **OPEC+ Potential Production Increase**: OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production at the Sunday meeting, which means starting to lift the second - layer production cut of about 1.65 million barrels per day (1.6% of global demand), one year earlier than planned. If production is increased in September, it will strengthen the expectation of supply surplus and may push oil prices to test previous lows. If the status quo is maintained, oil prices may recover, but the rebound space is limited [14]. - **Fed's "Beige Book" and Related Data**: The Fed's "Beige Book" shows price increases in all regions, with fewer mentions of inflation and a decrease in mentions of "slowdown". US July JOLTs job openings were 7.181 million, lower than expected, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased. US August ADP employment increased by 0.054 million, lower than expected. Fed official Christopher Waller released "dovish" remarks, suggesting starting a rate cut at the next meeting [15]. - **Geopolitical Uncertainty**: The Russia - Ukraine conflict has escalated, with Russia launching large - scale attacks on 14 regions in Ukraine. European countries plan to send troops to Ukraine, and Israel's military actions in the Middle East have also intensified, causing short - term disturbances to oil prices [16]. 3.4 Data Analysis - **US Crude Oil Production**: As of the week ending August 29, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.016 million barrels per day to 13.423 million barrels per day. Although production decreased last week, there are signs of a rebound, increasing supply pressure [19]. - **US Oil Drilling Rigs**: As of the week ending August 29, the total number of US oil drilling rigs was 412, an increase of 1 from the previous period. The decline in the number of drilling rigs has slowed down, and it is expected to remain at a low level as the current oil price is below the shale oil profit range [21]. - **Demand**: US crude oil consumption demand decreased by 0.195 million barrels per day to 19.82 million barrels per day as of the week ending August 29, mainly due to a decrease in refinery operating rates. Gasoline demand increased by 0.1447 million barrels per day to 10.0984 million barrels per day. US refinery operating rates decreased to 94.3% as of the week ending August 29. In China, as of September 5, the operating rate of major refineries was 81.59% (a 0.19 - percentage - point increase), and the operating rate of independent refineries was 60.02% (a 1.3 - percentage - point increase). The comprehensive refining profit of major refineries decreased by 133.8 yuan/ton to 661.86 yuan/ton, and that of independent refineries decreased by 41.72 yuan/ton to 188.11 yuan/ton [25][27][33]. - **Inventory**: US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 2.415 million barrels as of the week ending August 29, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.509 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 1.59 million barrels, while gasoline inventory decreased by 3.795 million barrels [43][47]. - **Crack Spread**: As of September 3, the US crude oil crack spread was $21.99 per barrel, showing a recovery and indicating a continued warming of US refined oil consumption [48]. 3.5 Future Market Judgment - This week, crude oil prices showed a wide - range oscillation. Geopolitical factors provided intermittent support, while OPEC+'s potential production increase suppressed prices. In the short term, the influencing factors are mixed, and it is difficult to form a continuous driving force. If OPEC+ implements a new round of production increase, oil prices may test the annual low. If the status quo is maintained, oil prices may recover, but the rebound space is limited. Attention should be paid to the $60 per barrel support level of WTI crude oil [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates, and the easing of liquidity will open up upward space for copper prices. Coupled with the tight supply of copper mines, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to maintain the operation strategy of buying on dips. The upper level should pay attention to the pressure at the 81,000 mark [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In August, copper prices remained in a high - level consolidation. On August 1st, the lowest price of Shanghai copper reached 77,960 yuan/ton, and on August 25th, the highest price reached 79,830 yuan/ton. The market's focus shifted to the time and rhythm of the Fed's interest rate cuts. The tight raw material supply continued, and the downstream's acceptance of high prices was insufficient, limiting the upward space [10]. 3.2 Macro - aspect - **Overseas**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September. The probability of a rate cut is high, and it is expected to cut rates twice this year. The employment data in July was not as expected, but the labor market remained relatively stable. The S&P and Fitch affirmed the US sovereign credit rating. The US manufacturing and service PMI in August improved. The eurozone's economic data improved significantly, and the market's expectation of the ECB's rate cut remained stable [8][15][17]. - **Domestic**: The domestic economy is generally stable. In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The growth rate of domestic economic data in July and August slowed down, and it is expected that there will be more policy support in the second half of the year [23]. 3.3 Fundamental - aspect - **Supply**: - In July, China's copper ore imports increased, with a month - on - month increase of 8.96% and a year - on - year increase of 18.45%. The supply from Chile and Peru rebounded. However, the tight supply situation of copper mines has not improved significantly, and the spot processing fee of copper concentrates has declined slightly [27][30]. - In July, China's refined copper production was 1.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%, but a month - on - month decrease. In August, the number of smelters reducing production increased due to the tight supply of copper concentrates and cold materials [37]. - **Inventory**: Currently, copper inventories are relatively high. As of August 28th, the COMEX copper inventory was 275,200 tons, the bonded - area copper inventory was 83,300 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory was 81,700 tons. With the arrival of the peak season from September to October, there may be a possibility of destocking [33]. - **Demand**: - In July, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73%, mainly driven by strong domestic demand [39]. - From January to July, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China increased by 18.2% year - on - year. The installed capacity of new energy sources such as solar and wind power increased rapidly, and the investment in power grid projects increased by 12.5% year - on - year [43]. - In July, the production and sales of automobiles in China increased year - on - year. The production of new energy vehicles in July was 1.176 million, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The automobile industry is expected to continue to drive copper consumption [47]. - In July, the production of household refrigerators and air conditioners in China decreased month - on - month. The production of refrigerators decreased due to the end of promotional activities and inventory pressure, and the production of air conditioners decreased due to the return to rationality of the market and the suppression of export demand by US tariffs [51].