1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures maintained a weak and volatile trend. The coking coal supply contracted significantly during the week before the Spring Festival, and the upstream coking coal inventory continued to decline. The inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises continued to be replenished, and the raw material end of steel mills was slightly replenished. The fundamentals of coking coal were stable, the spot market was quiet, and the external macro - sentiment significantly affected the futures. After the festival, attention should be paid to the "Two Sessions expectations" and the demand strength in the "Golden March and Silver April", with support at the lower price level and the upward momentum yet to accumulate [6][32]. - Recently, the coke production capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills remained stable. The molten iron output increased slightly, supporting the coke consumption. After the new round of coke price increase, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises improved, while the profit of steel enterprises was under pressure. Overall, the inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises was not high, the supply - demand was stable, and the coke futures followed the cost end of coking coal [6][35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The double - coking futures maintained a weak and volatile trend this week. The coking coal supply contracted significantly during the week before the Spring Festival, and the upstream coking coal inventory continued to decline. The inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises continued to be replenished, and the raw material end of steel mills was slightly replenished. The fundamentals of coking coal were stable, the spot market was quiet, and the external macro - sentiment significantly affected the futures. After the festival, attention should be paid to the "Two Sessions expectations" and the demand strength in the "Golden March and Silver April", with support at the lower price level and the upward momentum yet to accumulate. The coke production capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills remained stable, the molten iron output increased slightly, supporting the coke consumption. After the new round of coke price increase, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises improved, while the profit of steel enterprises was under pressure. The inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises was not high, the supply - demand was stable, and the coke futures followed the cost end of coking coal [6]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus | Multi - factors | Short - factors | | --- | --- | | The inventory structure of coking coal has improved | The winter storage of steel products was poor, limiting the raw material replenishment space of steel mills | | The domestic macro - policy is positive | As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream replenishment rhythm gradually slows down | | The molten iron output is stable, supporting the demand for furnace materials | The financial market fluctuations intensify, and the sentiment is changeable | [10] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Coking coal supply**: As of the week of February 13, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 81.39%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.28%, and the daily average output was 74.26 tons, a decrease of 1.19 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 32.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.26%, and the daily average output was 24.34 tons, a decrease of 1.97 tons. As of the weekly statistics on February 7, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu Port was 92.9745 tons, slightly shrinking from the previous period. The coking coal supply contracted significantly during the week before the Spring Festival [12]. - **Coking coal inventory**: As of the week of February 13, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 261.24 tons, a decrease of 3.41 tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 309.01 tons, a decrease of 25.45 tons; the coking coal inventory at ports was 258.41 tons, a decrease of 14.35 tons. With the contraction of the supply end and the end of downstream replenishment, the upstream coking coal inventory continued to decline [14]. - **Coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises**: As of February 13, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1329.99 tons, an increase of 27.6 tons. The current inventory availability days of coking enterprises were 15.68 days, an increase of 0.17 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 82.8 tons, a cumulative increase of 0.06 tons. The coke inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises was not high, and the coking coal raw material had been replenished for many weeks, but the replenishment intensity weakened as the Spring Festival approached [17]. - **Raw material inventory of steel mills**: As of February 13, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 838.25 tons, an increase of 14.05 tons. The inventory availability days were 13.34 days, an increase of 0.22 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory was 671.91 tons, an increase of 5.53 tons compared with the previous period, and the availability days were 12.7 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous period. The raw material end of steel mills was slightly replenished [21]. - **Coke production capacity utilization rate**: As of February 13, the production capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 72.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.74%, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 63.79 tons, an increase of 0.65 tons compared with the previous period; the production capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 86.33%, the same as the previous period, and the daily average output of coke was 47.23 tons, a decrease of 0.01 tons compared with the previous period. Recently, the coke production capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills remained stable [23]. - **Coke consumption**: According to the statistics of Steel Union, as of the week of February 13, China's coke consumption was 103.72 tons, an increase of 0.86 tons. From the data of 247 steel enterprises, the daily average output of molten iron was 230.49 tons, an increase of 1.91 tons. The molten iron output increased slightly, supporting the coke consumption [25]. - **Coke profit**: As of February 13, the average loss per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises was 8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 38.53%, a decrease of 0.86% compared with the previous period. After the new round of coke price increase, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises improved, while the profit of steel enterprises was under pressure [27]. - **Double - coking futures - spot basis structure**: The double - coking futures fluctuated [29]. 3.4后市研判 - **Coking coal**: During the week before the Spring Festival, the coking coal supply contracted significantly, and the upstream coking coal inventory continued to decline. The inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises continued to be replenished, and the raw material end of steel mills was slightly replenished. The fundamentals of coking coal were stable, the spot market was quiet, and the external macro - sentiment significantly affected the futures. The trading volume of the futures decreased continuously during the week before the Spring Festival, and the pre - festival funds were cautious with reduced participation. After the festival, attention should be paid to the "Two Sessions expectations" and the demand strength in the "Golden March and Silver April", with support at the lower price level and the upward momentum yet to accumulate [32]. - **Coke**: Recently, the coke production capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills remained stable. The molten iron output increased slightly, supporting the coke consumption. After the new round of coke price increase, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises improved, while the profit of steel enterprises was under pressure. The inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises was not high, the supply - demand was stable, and the coke futures followed the cost end of coking coal [35].

Report Summary Market Focus - The US and Iran continue to advance negotiations [7]. - OPEC maintains its global crude oil demand growth forecast [7]. - OPEC+ crude oil production in January decreased by 439,000 barrels per day month-on-month [7]. Key Data - As of February 4, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 24.5%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous statistical period [7]. - As of February 13, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 390,000 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons from the previous week [7]. - As of February 13, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 616,000 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons from the previous week [7]. - As of February 13, the social inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 988,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week [7]. Main Viewpoint - This week, the asphalt futures market showed a weak trend due to the transmission of oil prices. Crude oil prices were suppressed by both the easing of geopolitical tensions and the decline in market risk appetite, showing a volatile and weak trend [8]. - In the future, before the geopolitical situation becomes clear, crude oil is expected to maintain high volatility and lack a clear directional driver. It is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the second - round negotiations between the US and Iran [8]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see [9]. Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: raw material disruptions, geopolitical disruptions [12]. - Bearish factor: ineffective improvement in demand [12]. Macroeconomic Analysis US - Iran Negotiations - The indirect US - Iran negotiations have not achieved substantial results. The two countries are expected to hold more talks in the next few days. The US may send a second aircraft carrier if the negotiations fail. The situation remains uncertain, and concerns will support the market [13]. OPEC+ Production and Demand - OPEC+ production in January decreased by 439,000 barrels per day month - on - month, mainly due to the decline in Kazakhstan's production [14]. - OPEC maintains its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 and 2027, with expected growth of 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 and 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027 [14]. - There may be a slight supply surplus of about 250,000 barrels per day in the second quarter [14]. - The OPEC+ meeting on March 1 will be the key to observe whether the production strategy will be adjusted [14]. Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - As of February 13, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 390,000 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons from the previous week. Refinery operating rates are in a seasonal decline, and supply pressure is expected to decrease [15]. - As of February 4, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 24.5%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous statistical period [22]. Demand - As of February 13, the weekly asphalt shipment was 257,000 tons, a decrease of 77,000 tons from the previous statistical period and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. Attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery [25]. - As of February 13, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 3.71%, a decrease of 0.91 percentage points from the previous week, and it is expected to remain low in the first quarter [28]. Inventory - As of February 13, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 616,000 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 181,000 tons [34]. - As of February 13, the social inventory of domestic asphalt was 988,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 173,000 tons [41]. Spread - As of February 13, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt diluted processing was 9 yuan per ton, an increase of 42 yuan per ton from the previous week. The crack spread decreased month - on - month, the basis strengthened slightly, and the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 51.98 as of February 11 [50]. Future Outlook - Before the geopolitical situation becomes clear, crude oil is expected to maintain high volatility, and there is great uncertainty in oil price fluctuations during the Spring Festival holiday. Position control is recommended. Attention should be paid to the second - round US - Iran negotiations [52].

原油周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2026-2-13 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 05 后市研判 重点数据 （1）美国至2月6日当周EIA原油库存 853万桶，预期79.3万桶，前值-345.5万桶。 （2）美国至2月6日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 107.1万桶，前值-74.3万桶。 （3）美国至2月6日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 -0.1万桶，前值21.4万桶。 主要观点 受地缘政治不确定性升温影响，本周原油市场整体偏强运行。一方面，美伊在阿曼首都举行的间接谈判未取得实 质性进展，双方核心分歧依然显著，市场对谈判破裂的担忧加剧，地缘风险溢价因此获得支撑；另一方面，美国总统 特朗普表示将向中东增派第二艘航母，并威胁若谈判失败将对伊朗实施军事打击，供应中断风险进一步推升油价。往 后看，油价走势将主要取决于美伊局势的演变路径：若双方达成超预期协议，地缘风险溢价回吐及伊朗潜在供应回归 将对油价形成压制；若谈判维持僵局，不确定性本身将持续为油价提供支撑；若谈判破裂甚至爆发军事冲突，供应中 断预期可能引发盘面 ...

01 报告摘要 钢材铁矿周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2026-02-06 目录 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 01 市场焦点 1. 安徽省13家建筑钢材生产企业中，6家电炉钢厂已规划春节前后检修计划，平均检修时间为27天，较去年减少4天，预计检修 影响产量37.64万吨。 2. 山西11家建筑钢材生产厂家中，7家钢厂不同程度停产检修，另外1家钢厂计划3月份检修。根据各家钢厂检修及不饱和生产 情况，日影响建筑钢材产量约在4.7万吨。 3. 云贵地区9家短流程钢厂中，7家钢厂春节期间均会安排停产检修。受效益影响，今年短流程钢厂停产检修时间较往年平均缩 短了约8天，平均停产检修天数在18天，日均影响产量2.7万吨，较往年减少0.15万吨。 4. 截至2月3日，13家钢厂发布2026年冬储政策，其中东北5家，华北3家，西北2家，西南3家。 5. 13省2026年政府工作报告中提及基建行业相关的内容。其中，河南实施1000个以上省重点项目，年度完成投资1万亿元；陕 西实施省级重点项目640个、完成投资3500亿元以上。 ...

阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2026-2-6 沥青周度报告 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 Ø 美伊释放积极言论：当地时间2月1日，美国总统特朗普在海湖庄园回答记者有关伊朗问题时表示，希望"能够达成协议"。当天 早些时候，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示，伊朗对与美国就核问题达成协议"仍然有信心"。 Ø 美军在阿拉伯海域击落伊朗无人机：据央视新闻报道，当地时间2月3日，一名美国官员表示，美军当天在阿拉伯海击落了一架接 近"亚伯拉罕·林肯"号航空母舰的伊朗无人机。伊朗方面一名消息人士表示，伊方一架无人机当天在公海执行常规合法侦察任 务过程中失联，但已成功传回其拍摄的图片。 Ø 美伊谈判一度取消：当地时间2月4日，有伊朗官方消息人士称，原定于6日在阿曼举行的伊美谈判已经取消。该消息人士表示， 取消会谈的原因是美方对会谈施加了新的条件，以及双方在谈判问题上存在分歧，而非会谈地点的问题。 Ø 美伊于2月6日在阿曼首都谈判：当地时间2月4日，伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐就伊朗在阿曼与美国会谈的官方立场作出澄清，称谈判 将于6日上午10点左右在阿曼首都 ...

铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2026-2-6 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | 告 | 摘 | 报 | 要 | A | 0 | 1 | P | R | T | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

原油周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2026-2-6 05 后市研判 报告PA摘RT要 01 | | （1）沙特降低对亚洲买家的原油价格。 | | --- | --- | | 市场焦点 | （2）美伊于2月6日在阿曼首都开展谈判。 | | | （3）乌克兰与俄罗斯在阿布扎比的双方会谈未取得实质性进展。 | 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 重点数据 （1）美国至1月30日当周EIA原油库存 -345.5万桶，预期48.9万桶，前值-229.5万桶。 （2）美国至1月30日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 -74.3万桶，前值-27.8万桶。 （3）美国至1月30日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 21.4万桶，前值51.5万桶。 主要观点 本周原油市场在地缘政治与市场情绪的双重影响下缺乏明确方向性驱动，整体呈现宽幅震荡格局。一方面，地缘 局势不确定性加剧油价波动，周初美国总统特朗普表示希望与伊朗达成协议，导致地缘风险溢价快速回落，随后美军 在阿拉伯海域击落伊朗无人机，再度引发市场对地缘紧张局势升温的担忧，对油价形成支撑。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term and have a clear upward trend in the medium and long - term [5]. - The price of aluminum alloy may continue to fluctuate and adjust following the price of electrolytic aluminum [64]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US economic data: The US January ISM manufacturing PMI index rose to 52.6, hitting a new high since August 2022. The January ISM services PMI index slightly fell to 53.8 but was better than expected. The January ADP employment number was 22,000, lower than the market forecast. The release of the US non - farm payroll report was postponed [5][12]. - Chinese economic data: China's January official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point month - on - month decline. The Rating Dog manufacturing PMI rose to a three - month high of 50.3 in January, with sales prices rising for the first time in 14 months [5][16]. - Market sentiment: Global large - scale silver ETF selling put pressure on the precious metal market. Market risk appetite was poor, and domestic PMI data weakened. Steady - growth policies need continuous efforts [5]. - Aluminum market fundamentals: Overseas new production capacity is slowly put into operation. In China, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has changed little in the near term. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, some enterprises choose to take holidays in advance, and the demand shows a weakening trend. Aluminum ingot social inventory has continued to accumulate [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum has changed little [8]. - Bearish factors: Social inventory continues to accumulate. Consumption weakens as the Spring Festival approaches. Precious metals continue to decline, and market risk appetite is poor [8][9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Bauxite supply: From January to November this year, China's cumulative bauxite production was 55.2135 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. In November, the single - month output was 4.698 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.26%. The domestic bauxite supply is tight. The total amount of imported bauxite in December was 14.67 million tons. The supply of overseas bauxite is expected to be relatively loose, and the export volume of Guinean bauxite in 2026 is expected to reach 180 million tons [18][21]. - Alumina market: In 2025, the new domestic alumina production capacity was 9.8 million tons, and it is expected to be 8.6 million tons in 2026. If all new production capacity is put into operation on time, the alumina supply surplus will exceed 10 million tons in 2026. Overseas, the planned new production capacity from 2025 - 2026 is 8.5 million tons, and 5.5 million tons are expected to be added in 2026. Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level [25]. - Electrolytic aluminum production: In December 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.9% year - on - year and 4.0% month - on - month. The aluminum water ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points month - on - month to 76.5%. At the end of December, the national electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 383,000 tons month - on - month. It is expected that the operating capacity will increase slightly in January, and the aluminum water ratio may continue to decline [29]. - Aluminum processing: The comprehensive aluminum processing start - up rate last week was 59.4%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous week [30]. - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory decreased to 492,975 tons. As of January 30, SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 10% week - on - week to 216,771 tons. As of February 5, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 853,000 tons, a 24,000 - ton increase from Monday [40][43]. - Price difference: On February 5, the average price of Shanghai Wumao aluminum had a reduced discount. The LME aluminum 0 - 3 discount increased [47]. - Recycled aluminum: In December, the domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 640,400 tons, a 41,800 - ton month - on - month decrease. Small and medium - sized aluminum plants faced difficulties in raw material procurement. As of January 15, the recycled aluminum alloy industry start - up rate was 58%, unchanged from the previous week [50][54]. - Aluminum trade: In 2025, China's cumulative exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. In December, exports were 540,000 tons, a 5.3% year - on - year decrease. Imports in December were 320,000 tons, a 33.3% year - on - year increase [58]. - Aluminum alloy inventory: As of January 30, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 67,300 tons, a 300 - ton increase from the previous week, and the in - plant inventory was 71,100 tons, a 6,000 - ton increase from the previous week [61]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow the electrolytic aluminum prices and continue to fluctuate and adjust [64]. - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term and have a clear upward trend in the medium and long - term [67].

焦煤焦炭周度报告 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 | 报告摘要 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | PART 01 | 1. | 多数唐山钢厂已基本完成冬储补库，虽然今年有较多的钢厂存在有冬储补库行为，但是冬储增量不大。据Mysteel统计，目 | | 前唐山钢厂焦炭可用天数平均约11天，多数钢厂在去年12月及今年1月份已陆续在增库，当前库存较去年12月初平均库存天 | | | | 数增加了约2天。 | | | | 2. | 2月3日据悉印尼部分矿山暂停现货交易，引起中印市场高度关注及讨论。2月5日印尼矿产与煤炭司司长表示，2026年煤炭开 | | | 市场焦点 | 采工作计划的核准文件尚未正式发布，市场上流传的削减信息被官方认定为无效信息。 | | | 3. | 13省2026年政府工作报告中提及基建行业相关的内容。其中，河南实施1000个以上省重点项目，年度完成投资1万亿元；陕 | | | 西实施省级重点项目640个、完成投资3500亿元以上。 | | | | 1. | 临近春节假期，国内焦煤供应端小幅收缩。 | | | 2. | 炼焦煤库存去化有所不畅。 | | | ...

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