铝月报（2025 年7月） 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2025-8-1 中航期货 目录 01 后市研判 03 宏观 面 02 行情回顾 04 基本 面 | 及 | 大 | 续 | 支 | 现 | 万 | 国 | 产 | 素 | 后 | 势 | 期 | 我 | 值56-60 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 | 及 | 走 | 短 | 因 | 可， | 等 | 面 | 以 | 以 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Maintain a strategy of buying on dips in August. The shortage of copper mines this year is more severe than last year, and the overall shortage of copper mines throughout the year supports copper prices. In the short - term, due to the implementation of copper tariffs (excluding electrolytic copper) and the further decline of the September interest - rate cut expectation, copper prices are in a continuous adjustment, with a support level at 77,000. In the medium - to - long - term, there are still expectations of two interest - rate cuts this year, and the tight supply of copper mines will continue to support copper prices, so the strategy of buying on dips is maintained [6][7]. Summary by Directory 01后市研判 - In August, maintain the strategy of buying on dips. The shortage of copper mines this year is more severe than last year, providing support for copper prices. In the short - term, copper prices are adjusting due to tariff implementation and the decline of the September interest - rate cut expectation, with a support at 77,000. In the medium - to - long - term, expect two interest - rate cuts this year, and continue to maintain the buying - on - dips strategy [6][7]. 02行情回顾 - In July, copper prices remained in a high - level consolidation. From late June to early July, due to the expectation that the 232 policy might be implemented in September or October, the shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions intensified, and copper prices rose. On July 3, Shanghai copper reached 80,990 yuan/ton, equivalent to 10,000 US dollars/ton for London copper. On July 8, the US announced a 50% tariff on copper, and copper prices fell from the high. On July 14, copper prices hit the monthly low of 77,700 yuan/ton. In late July, the "anti - involution" trend and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station project boosted market sentiment, and copper prices reached 80,000 yuan/ton again. But after the sentiment faded, copper prices returned to the fundamentals [9][10]. 03宏观面 - **International Situation**: On August 1, the 50% copper tariff excluded electrolytic copper, copper ore, and scrap copper. Excluding the electrolytic copper tariff made the CME market almost eliminate the tariff premium, and there is a possibility of US electrolytic copper flowing out, accelerating the supply - demand balance in non - US regions. In July, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. Powell's speech was hawkish, and the strong US economic and employment data increased the risk of inflation, causing the September interest - rate cut expectation to decline further, and the US dollar index rebounded, suppressing copper prices. In the medium - to - long - term, as the tariff situation eases and the actual US CPI shows a moderate increase, the market has been lowering CPI expectations, opening up space for interest - rate cuts in Q3, and there are still expectations of two interest - rate cuts this year, which will gradually remove the upward pressure on metals [8]. - **US Economic Data**: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than expected. In July, the ADP employment increased by 104,000, exceeding economists' expectations but still far below last year's average. The second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly initial value increased by 3%, significantly exceeding market expectations. The core PCE price index in June increased by 2.8% year - on - year, higher than expected. The strong US economic and employment data increased the risk of inflation, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut expectation may be further reduced [20]. - **Domestic Situation**: The domestic economy is generally stable, and there is an expectation for the accelerated implementation of growth - stabilizing policies. From the supply side, according to the "Implementation Plan for the High - Quality Development of the Copper Industry (2025 - 2027)", copper smelting development will shift from capacity expansion to quality and efficiency improvement, and the contradiction between mining and smelting is expected to be gradually alleviated. From the demand side, the "anti - involution" policies focus on a new round of growth - stabilizing actions, and the stable growth of the manufacturing industry will boost copper demand. In the medium - to - long - term, after the elimination of over - capacity, the supply growth rate may lag behind the demand improvement rate, further pushing up the copper price [23][26]. 04基本面 - **Supply Side** - **Copper Ore Import**: In June, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.3497 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 1.77%. The supply from the top two suppliers, Chile and Peru, continued to decline, with Peru's decline being around 15%. The long - term processing fees negotiated between domestic smelters and overseas miners this year are zero, and the spot processing fees remain low, indicating that the tight supply of copper mines is difficult to ease in the short term [27]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fees**: As of the week of July 25, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 42.98 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.22 US dollars/dry ton from the previous week. The spot market for copper concentrates remained relatively inactive, and the processing fees showed a trend of "stabilizing with a slight correction". The 2025 Q2 CSPC general manager's meeting decided not to set a reference figure for the Q3 spot copper concentrate processing fees [30]. - **Refined Copper Inventory**: Affected by the 232 tariff policy, the rush to import copper started in April. In April and May, the US imported 200,000 tons and 210,000 tons of refined copper respectively, far exceeding the historical average of 80,000 tons, causing a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions. As of June 30, the LME inventory dropped to 90,000 tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons from the beginning of the year. With the implementation of the 232 policy, the LME inventory started to increase, reaching 128,000 tons by July 25. The New York copper inventory continued to accumulate, reaching a new high in more than seven years. As of July 31, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 121,300 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons from the 28th [33]. - **Electrolytic Copper Production**: In the first half of 2025, domestic electrolytic copper production reached a new high. From January to June, the cumulative production was 6.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 674,700 tons, or 11.40%. In July, the estimated production was 1.1504 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. Although smelting is in a loss - making stage, the willingness to actively reduce production is not strong [36]. - **Scrap Copper Import**: In June, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year increase of 8.49%. The supply from Thailand, the new largest scrap copper supplier, continued to rise by more than 20%, and the supply from Asian countries such as Japan, Malaysia, and South Korea also increased to varying degrees, while the supply from the US decreased by more than 80%. Due to the adjustment of the smelting raw material structure, the increased supply from other countries compensated for the decrease from the US [39]. - **Demand Side** - **Power Sector**: In 2025, the State Grid's investment is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time. From January to June, the power grid investment was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The power source project investment increased by 5.9% year - on - year, mainly due to the over - expected growth of photovoltaic and wind power installations. If the two - grid companies complete their planned investment of 825 billion yuan, there is still significant room for growth in power grid investment. Affected by the off - season and high copper prices, the cable operating rate in June dropped to 72.41%. From January to June, China's cable exports were 1.4296 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.63%. The "Belt and Road" countries have great potential in promoting China's power material exports [41]. - **Real Estate Sector**: From January to June, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and housing construction area decreased by 9.1%. New housing starts decreased by 20.0%, and housing completions decreased by 14.8%. Although real estate sales are basically stable and inventory is decreasing, the demand for copper in the real estate sector remains weak [45]. - **Automobile Sector**: From January to June, automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 41.4% and 40.3%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is approaching 50%. China's automobile exports were 3.083 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, with new energy vehicle exports increasing by 75.2%. The growth of the automobile industry will drive copper consumption [48]. - **Home Appliance Sector**: In June, the national air - conditioner production was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 163.296 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. In August, the combined production plan for air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. The production plan for household air - conditioners in August was 11.443 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%, but the decline was expected to narrow compared to the previous month. The high - temperature weather in summer and the "trade - in" subsidy policy promoted air - conditioner sales and inventory digestion [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - In July, the domestic asphalt market fundamentals weakened marginally. Supply pressure increased due to the expected third - quarter terminal rush and high asphalt cracking spreads, while demand decreased because of weather - related construction disruptions. Socially - held inventories remained at a high level, suppressing prices. Macro improvements had limited support for the market. Cost - driven factors led to a short - term strengthening of oil prices, which in turn drove the asphalt market. Currently, the asphalt market lacks a core driving factor and is mainly influenced by crude oil. Given the medium - to long - term expectation of crude oil supply surplus, the asphalt price is expected to continue to fluctuate widely. For trading strategies, pay attention to the pressure range of 3700 - 3750 for the BU2510 contract, and consider short - selling if US sanctions on Russia are lower than market expectations [69]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - In July, the asphalt futures price fluctuated widely. On one hand, the asphalt fundamentals showed a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. Asphalt production continued to rise as refinery operating rates increased, while demand weakened due to the typhoon season in the southern region. Social inventories remained at a high level, suppressing prices. On the other hand, the marginal improvement in the supply and demand of crude oil supported oil prices. In the context of less prominent fundamental contradictions, the cost was the main influencing factor for asphalt prices [6]. 02 Macro Analysis - **Trade Agreements**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, and both sides agreed to extend the suspension of part of the US reciprocal tariffs and Chinese counter - measures for 90 days. The US reached trade agreements with the EU, Japan, etc., and also imposed new tariffs on South Korea, India, and Brazil. In the short term, trade tensions were effectively alleviated, which supported oil prices to some extent. However, the long - term impact on the global economy remains uncertain [8]. - **Fed's Interest - Rate Decision**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations. Two Fed officials opposed the decision, indicating a weakening of internal consensus. Fed Chairman Powell's speech was hawkish, and the probability of a September interest - rate cut decreased. The interest - rate decision and Powell's speech added uncertainty to the future interest - rate adjustment rhythm [12]. - **Geopolitical Tensions**: US President Trump set a deadline for Russia to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine and threatened sanctions if the goal was not achieved. The US also imposed large - scale sanctions on Iran. These events raised concerns about the supply side of the market and supported the recent strengthening of oil prices [13]. 03 Supply - Demand Analysis - **OPEC+ Production**: OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and the market expects a continued increase in September to reach the target of restoring 2.2 million barrels per day of production. The market has fully priced in the OPEC+ production increase, and the key lies in the speed and scale of the increase. It is expected that this round of production increase will be completed by the end of the fourth quarter. Additionally, Kazakhstan's production exceeded the quota, raising concerns about OPEC+ internal price competition [16][17]. - **IEA, EIA, and OPEC Forecasts**: In July, IEA, EIA, and OPEC had different expectations for global crude oil supply and demand growth. IEA raised the supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 16,000 barrels per day, maintaining a pessimistic outlook. EIA and OPEC maintained their previous forecasts, expecting demand improvement due to the easing of global trade tensions [19]. - **Domestic Asphalt Supply**: In July, domestic asphalt production was 2.55 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 234,000 tons or 10.5%. The operating rate of domestic refineries increased, with significant increases in the East China and Shandong regions. The asphalt cracking spread fluctuated, and the expected third - quarter terminal rush demand drove the refinery operating rate to rise, increasing supply pressure [21][29]. - **Domestic Asphalt Demand**: In July, domestic asphalt shipments were 1.867 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 88,000 tons. Rainy weather restricted terminal construction, weakening demand. As the rainy season ended, shipments increased week - on - week. The utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity increased, but the long - term growth space is limited [30][33]. - **Import and Export**: In June, domestic asphalt imports were 375,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons or 5.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 32.56%. Exports were 29,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,600 tons. From January to June, cumulative imports decreased by 11.53% year - on - year, while cumulative exports increased by 53.36% year - on - year [40][43]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 700,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,000 tons. The social inventory was 1.343 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,000 tons. Factory inventory decreased slightly due to lower production and increased terminal construction, while social inventory increased slightly due to weak demand and remained at a high level [52][57]. - **Price Spread**: As of August 1, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing was - 551.7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 37.5 yuan/ton. The asphalt basis was 76 yuan/ton, and the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 57.25 as of July 31. The asphalt cracking spread weakened, and the basis first strengthened and then weakened, indicating weak price support from the demand side [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market features "strong reality, weak expectation", with short - term support factors and long - term suppression logic coexisting. In the short term, factors such as the peak consumption season, improved macro - environment, and OPEC+ actual production increase lower than planned support oil prices. In the long term, OPEC+ is expected to fully release the 2.2 million barrels per day production increase by the end of the fourth quarter, while seasonal demand will weaken, leading to a long - term structural surplus. The proposed US sanctions on Russia may cause short - term supply concerns and oil price rebounds, but the actual supply reduction may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure of WTI crude oil prices at $70 - 72 per barrel, and consider short positions if sanctions are lower than market expectations [53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In July, oil prices first fluctuated widely and then rose. The "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern of crude oil, the expected peak consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere, and the decline in EIA crude oil inventories supported oil prices. Although OPEC+ planned to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, the market had already priced it in, and the actual increase was much smaller. The threat of US sanctions on Russia also supported oil price rebounds. However, in the fourth quarter, the shift from peak to off - peak consumption and OPEC+ production increases may lead to supply surpluses and limit oil price increases [5]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Trade Agreements - The short - term trade tension has been alleviated as the US reached trade agreements with China, the EU, and Japan. However, the long - term impact on the global economy is still uncertain. The US also imposed new tariffs on South Korea, India, and Brazil [6]. 3.2.2 Fed's Interest Rate Decision - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations. There were two dissenting votes advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Powell's speech was hawkish, and the probability of a September rate cut dropped from about 65% to below 50% [10]. 3.2.3 Geopolitical Tensions - Trump threatened to impose sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine by August 8. The US also imposed large - scale sanctions on Iran. These events raised concerns about supply disruptions and supported oil prices [11]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 OPEC+ Production - OPEC+ increased production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. It is expected to continue increasing production in September to reach the 2.2 million barrels per day production recovery target. However, Kazakhstan's failure to cut production as promised may lead to concerns about an internal price war within OPEC+ [14][15]. 3.3.2 Forecasts from Different Institutions - In July, IEA raised the global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 16,000 barrels per day. EIA and OPEC maintained their previous forecasts [17]. 3.3.3 Supply from Different Regions - OPEC's crude oil production increased by 221,000 barrels per day in June, mainly due to Saudi Arabia's production increase. Non - OPEC production increased by 129,000 barrels per day, mainly from Kazakhstan and Russia. US crude oil production decreased by 120,000 barrels per day in the week ending July 25, and the number of oil rigs also decreased [19][21][24]. 3.3.4 Demand from Different Regions - China's apparent crude oil consumption increased by 3% in June. However, China's manufacturing PMI decreased in July. In the US, refinery utilization rates increased, but the manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, and the Chicago PMI continued to decline [32][38][39]. 3.3.5 Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventories increased by 7.74 million barrels in the week ending July 25. Although the seasonal peak may drive inventory reduction, the reduction space is limited [48].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Coking Coal and Coke Monthly Report [2] - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Report Author: Wang Nan [2] - Company: AVIC Futures [2] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 3: Report Core Viewpoints - In July, the double - coking futures continued the upward trend from June, but the price volatility in the last two weeks increased significantly. Policy and market factors affected supply and demand expectations, and price fluctuations were large. In August, due to factors such as position - shifting and policy expectations, the prices quickly declined [7]. - Currently, the coking coal inventory pressure has gradually eased, and the price has upward elasticity, but short - term sentiment decline may correct the over - increase. The coking coal supply increment and price support after the sentiment decline should be focused on [33]. - With the rapid increase in coking enterprise production costs, the frequency of price increases has accelerated. The fifth price increase has not been implemented due to market sentiment cooling. The short - term market is expected to oscillate at a high level to digest the previous increase, and attention should be paid to the impact of the parade on supply contraction [36]. Group 4: Summary by Report Sections 1. Market Review - In July, the coking coal 09 contract rose 26.73%, and the coke 09 contract rose 14.03%. Policy factors such as the "anti - involution" policy and the "Yaxia" project affected supply and demand expectations, leading to price increases. The exchange's position - limit and the Politburo meeting cooled the market sentiment, and in August, the price quickly declined due to position - shifting [7]. 2. Data Analysis - **Supply of Coking Coal**: As of the week of August 1, the operating rate of 110 sample coal - washing plants was 61.51%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.11%, and the daily output of clean coal was 52.135 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.05 tons. The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.31%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.08%, and the daily output of clean coal was 77.67 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.54 tons. The supply of coking coal has recovered, but the resumption of production is limited. The customs clearance at the Ganqimao Port has decreased compared with the same period last year, but it rebounded at the end of July [10]. - **Import of Coking Coal**: In June 2025, China's coking coal imports were 9.1084 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.05%. Mongolia and Russia accounted for 77.23% of the imports. Australian coal effectively supplemented the shortage of US coal. The imports of Mongolia, Russia, and Canada are expected to increase slightly [11]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of the week of August 1, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.4826 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 602,100 tons; the clean coal inventory of sample coal - washing plants was 1.6638 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33,200 tons; the port coking coal inventory was 2.8211 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 278,900 tons. The inventory has been significantly reduced, and the inventory pressure has been alleviated [16]. - **Coking Coal Replenishment**: As of August 1, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 9.9273 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 987,800 tons, and the inventory available days were 11.52 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.63 days; the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8.0379 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 795,000 tons, and the inventory available days were 12.87 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.3 days. Independent coking enterprises had a high enthusiasm for replenishment, while the replenishment of steel mills was relatively moderate [19]. - **Coke Production**: As of the week of August 1, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.69%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.51%, and the daily output of metallurgical coke was 64,810 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3180 tons; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 86.62%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.31%, and the daily output of coke was 46,970 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110 tons. The capacity utilization rate and output were relatively stable [21]. - **Iron Water Production and Coke Demand**: As of the week of August 1, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 65.37%, a year - on - year increase of 58.88%; the daily iron water output was 2.4071 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,900 tons; the weekly coke consumption was 1.0832 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18,400 tons. High iron water production supported coke demand [24]. - **Coke Export**: In the first half of 2025, the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 350,590.4 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 1.3583 million tons. India's import restrictions and price competition from Indonesian coke affected China's coke export, and the export was mainly for domestic demand [25]. - **Coke Inventory**: As of the week of August 1, the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 736,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 173,000 tons but a significant decrease of 284,800 tons compared with the beginning of July; the coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 6.2669 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 835,300 tons; the port coke inventory was 2.151 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 168,900 tons. The inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased significantly [28]. - **Coke Price Increase**: As of the week of August 1, the average loss per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 45 yuan. In July, four price increases were implemented, but the fifth one was postponed due to market sentiment cooling. The price increase frequency accelerated, and the game between steel and coking enterprises intensified [29]. 3. Future Market Outlook - The demand for steel is in the seasonal off - season, and the improvement in the real - world is limited. Policy factors and position - shifting have affected the market. The coking coal inventory pressure has eased, and the price has upward elasticity, but short - term sentiment decline may correct the over - increase [33]. - The coking enterprises' price increase frequency has accelerated, and the fifth price increase has not been implemented. The short - term market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the impact of the parade on supply contraction should be focused on [36].

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Report Summary - The National Energy Administration issued a notice to conduct a production check on coal mines in 8 provinces including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia to ensure stable coal supply, as some coal mines have been over - producing this year [5]. - This week, the main coking coal contract had multiple consecutive limit - up boards, leading the domestic assets to rise strongly. The "Yaxia" project stimulates demand growth expectations, and the notice on coal production check strengthens supply reduction expectations. Coking coal has entered a rebound channel of price increase and inventory reduction, and it is advisable to buy on dips due to high position concentration [6]. - Recently, the coke futures market has been weaker than coking coal, mainly dragged down by the steel futures market. The profit of steel mills will affect the future price increase expectations of coke [6]. Market Focus Positive Factors - Downstream enterprises are replenishing inventory, and coking coal inventory has decreased significantly [10]. - The "Yaxia" hydropower project will bring incremental infrastructure demand [7][10]. - The over - production check notice is expected to reduce coal supply [10]. - "Anti - involution" related laws are being introduced [7][10]. - During the peak electricity consumption period, the prices of related coal types have risen simultaneously [10]. - High pig iron production supports demand [10]. Negative Factors - Steel has entered the seasonal off - season, and terminal demand is limited [10]. - After the reopening of Mongolian ports, the import volume of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing [10]. Data Analysis Coking Coal Production - The domestic production growth of coking coal has slowed down, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased. This week, the starting rate of 523 sample mines was 86.9%, up 0.83% from last week, with a daily average clean coal output of 77.73 tons, an increase of 0.69 tons. The starting rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 62.31%, down 0.54% from last week, with a daily output of 52.145 tons, a decrease of 1.23 tons. As of July 19, the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port was 625,455 tons [11][14]. Coking Coal Inventory - As of the week of July 25, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.7844 million tons, a decrease of 606,300 tons; the clean coal inventory of 110 sample coal washing plants was 1.7561 million tons, a decrease of 159,300 tons; the port inventory was 2.9234 million tons, a decrease of 291,600 tons [15]. Coke Production and Inventory - As of July 25, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.45%, up 0.44% from the previous period, with a daily average metallurgical coke output of 646,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 86.97%, up 0.13% from the previous period, with a daily coke output of 471,600 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons [24]. - As of July 25, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 9.8538 million tons, an increase of 562,700 tons, and the inventory available days were 11.47 days, an increase of 0.59 days. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 801,200 tons, a decrease of 74,300 tons [18]. - As of July 25, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.9951 million tons, an increase of 84,100 tons, and the inventory available days were 12.75 days, an increase of 0.12 days. The coke inventory was 6.3998 million tons, an increase of 9,900 tons, and the available days were 11.45 days, a decrease of 0.01 days [22]. Coke Demand - As of the week of July 25, China's coke consumption was 1.09 million tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4223 million tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons, and the blast furnace starting rate was 83.46%, the same as last week [26]. Coke Price Increase - As of the week of July 25, the average loss per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 54 yuan/ton, widening compared to last week. After the second - round price increase on the 23rd, the third - round price increase started quickly on the 24th, and some downstream steel mills have accepted the increase. The mainstream steel mills tendered on the 25th, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on July 25 [28]. Basis Structure of Coking Coal and Coke - The spot and futures prices of coking coal and coke have risen in resonance [30]. Future Outlook Coking Coal - Mid - and downstream enterprises are increasing their procurement of raw coal. The prices of some key coking coal types in the producing areas have exceeded expectations. The tradable resources in the port spot market have slightly decreased, and the inquiry and trading volume have improved. The price of imported Mongolian coal has reached new highs, and the acceptance of high - price coal by downstream enterprises remains to be seen. Coking coal has strong internal momentum, and the previous bearish logic has ended. It is advisable to buy on dips [33]. Coke - The rapid increase in coking coal prices has led to a sharp increase in the production cost of coking enterprises, and the frequency of coke price increases has accelerated. After the third - round price increase was implemented today, there is an expectation of a fourth - round increase next week. The coke futures market is weaker than coking coal in the short term, dragged down by the steel market [36].

橡胶周度报告 汪楠 从业资格号：F3069002 投资咨询号：Z0017123 | 报告摘要 PART 01 | 1. | 国家发改委、市场监管总局就价格法修正草案公开征求意见。修正草案完善低价倾销的认定标准，规范市场价格秩序， | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 治理"内卷式"竞争；完善价格串通、哄抬价格、价格歧视等不正当价格行为认定标准。 | | 2. | | 全球天然橡胶主产区降雨量周环比减少；未来两周天然橡胶东南亚产区整体降雨量较上一周期增加，对割胶工作影响 | | | | 增强。 | | 市场焦点 | 3. | 泰国与柬埔寨(7月24日)在两国边境地区发生交火，双方都指责是对方先行开火。 | | 4. | | 日美关税谈判达成协议。美方对日本实施的"对等关税"税率将从25%下调至15%。 | | 5. | | 欧盟与美国正朝着达成协议的方向迈进，该协议将对大多数产品设定15%的关税税率。欧盟成员国可能准备接受15%的 | | | | 关税，且欧盟官员正推动将这一税率涵盖汽车等行业。欧盟将继续准备一项可能高达930亿欧元、最高税率30%的报复 | | | | 性关税方案，以防在8月 ...