Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of alumina will remain under pressure, but the support from the cost line is gradually emerging, and the room for further decline may be limited. In the short term, the alumina futures price may fluctuate at a low level. - The price of electrolytic aluminum has the characteristic of being "easy to rise and hard to fall" in the medium and long term. In November, whether the aluminum price can continue to rise depends on the sustainability of inventory reduction and the acceptance of high aluminum prices by downstream users. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended. - The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation in the short term, and attention should be paid to the raw material supply situation and the rhythm of demand recovery. [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - Alumina: The short - term marginal supply of domestic bauxite is tightening, but there is supplementation from imported ores, and the supply is not significantly tight. The price of imported ores is slightly weak. The operating capacity of alumina is at a high level, but the release of new capacity still takes time. Some alumina enterprises in Shanxi, Henan, and Guizhou are close to the break - even point or in a loss state. Considering the possible impact of the heating season in November, attention should be paid to changes in the supply side. - Electrolytic aluminum: The expectation of loose liquidity will be the theme of the macro - market in November. The Fed cut interest rates in October, but a second rate cut in December is "far from a foregone conclusion". After the resolution of the US government shutdown, attention should be paid to US economic data for further guidance. The long - term nature of the competition and game between China and the US is a certainty, but the two sides have a "one - year truce", and concerns about Sino - US trade issues have significantly eased in the short term. The unexpected production cut of an Icelandic smelter highlights the structural problems such as the power bottleneck in the global electrolytic aluminum capacity release. The 45 - million - ton capacity ceiling in China limits the long - term supply elasticity. On the demand side, the loose liquidity environment brought by the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle provides medium - and long - term upward momentum for aluminum prices. - ADC12: The spot price of ADC12 has risen synchronously, with significant cost - side support. The continuous shortage of scrap aluminum supply has pushed up the procurement cost. The supply side is restricted by insufficient raw material circulation and regional policy uncertainty, and some enterprises are operating at a low load. The demand side maintains stable resilience and shows a mild recovery trend. The inventory continues to decline, and the cost rigidity support and the tight supply - demand balance jointly drive the price to strengthen, but high inventory and policy uncertainty still pose constraints. [6] 2. Market Review - In October, the futures prices of alumina and electrolytic aluminum showed a divergent trend. The alumina futures price generally showed a trend of bottom - building in oscillation, falling from a maximum of 2,913 yuan/ton to a minimum of 2,760 yuan/ton. The futures prices of electrolytic aluminum and cast aluminum alloy both increased, with the maximum price of electrolytic aluminum reaching 21,425 yuan/ton and that of cast aluminum alloy reaching 20,920 yuan/ton. [7][8] 3. Macroeconomic Aspects - Sino - US trade: In the short term, concerns about Sino - US trade issues have significantly eased. Although the US announced some trade - restrictive measures in October, through the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur and the meeting between the leaders of the two countries, the two sides reached consensus on many issues, including the cancellation of some tariffs and the suspension of some export control measures for one year. - Industry development: The Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee and the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal have boosted market confidence. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association called on enterprises to prevent "involution - type" vicious competition and ensure the safety of the industrial chain and supply chain. [12][13][18] 4. Fundamental Aspects - Alumina: The long - term oversupply situation of alumina remains unchanged. In September, China's alumina production was 774,600 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The cumulative production from January to September was 6.6836 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.8%. The new capacity is expected to be concentratedly released in the first quarter of 2026. Attention should be paid to the risk of production cuts caused by the heating season, winter stockpiling, and weak spot prices. - Electrolytic aluminum: In September, the weighted average full cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 15,918 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 193 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the industry rose to 4,849 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 301 yuan/ton. The production in September was 381,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The operating capacity and the proportion of molten aluminum in the industry both increased slightly. As of the end of September, the national electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 4.584 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 4.406 million tons, both showing a slight increase. Overseas, the sudden production cut of an Icelandic smelter and the possible shutdown of an Australian smelter may cause market concerns about the unstable power supply of overseas aluminum. - Aluminum processing: The operating rates of aluminum processing enterprises are differentiated. The overall operation is stable, with an overall operating rate of 62.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum profiles is 53.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2%; the operating rate of aluminum sheets and strips is 67.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0%; the operating rate of aluminum foils is 71.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.4%. - Downstream demand: - Photovoltaic: The new installed capacity of photovoltaic is expected to continue to grow. From January to September 2025, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic was 240.27 GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35%. In September, the new installed capacity was 9.66 GW, a month - on - month increase of 31.25%. - Real estate: The real estate market is restricted by structural factors, with weak overall investment and purchase demand. From January to September, the construction area, new construction area, and sales area of real estate all decreased year - on - year. - Automobile: The automobile industry continues to maintain high prosperity. In September, the production and sales of automobiles were 3.276 million and 3.226 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. The production and sales of new energy vehicles also increased significantly. - Home appliances: The home appliance market has entered a seasonal off - season. In September, the production of major home appliances such as air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, and color TVs showed different trends. In October, the domestic and export production schedules of household air conditioners decreased year - on - year. - Inventory: Both domestic and foreign exchange inventories are decreasing. The LME aluminum inventory continues to decline, and the SHFE aluminum inventory decreased slightly in the week of October 24. Since mid - October, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has started to decline. As of October 30, the main market electrolytic aluminum inventory in China was 605,000 tons, lower than the same period in 2024. - Recycled aluminum: The production of recycled aluminum remained stable from September to October. As of October 23, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry was 58.6%, unchanged week - on - week. The shortage of scrap aluminum resources has led to a slight decline in the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy last week. In September, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased by 13.2% year - on - year. As of October 31, the social inventory and factory inventory of recycled aluminum alloy both decreased week - on - week, indicating a turning point in inventory. [28][30][34][40][46][51][56][59][61][65][67][70][74]

Group 1: Market Review - In October, natural rubber showed a "first decline then rise" trend, while synthetic rubber was weak. The main contract of natural rubber (RU) had a monthly increase of 0.37% with a decrease of 444 hands in positions; the main contract of 20 - rubber (NR) had a monthly increase of 1.07% with a decrease of 11,713 hands in positions; the main contract of synthetic rubber (BR) had a monthly decrease of 4.73% with an increase of 13,654 hands in positions [6]. - After the National Day holiday, multiple macro - factors led to a significant increase in the "gold" sector, and industrial products were under pressure. Rubber followed the adjustment. After the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, the macro - expectation improved, and rubber recovered its previous decline. The synthetic rubber declined significantly due to the cost collapse caused by the sharp decline of butadiene [6]. Group 2: Data Analysis Natural Rubber Raw Material Price - As of October 30, the glue price in Thailand was 56 Thai baht/kg, the cup - glue price was 53.3 Thai baht/kg, the glue price in Yunnan, China was 14,100 yuan/ton, and the raw material price in Hainan was 13,100 yuan/ton. Since October, affected by rainfall, rubber tapping was difficult, and raw material prices were strong, providing cost support. In November, if rainfall eases, the upside of raw material prices is limited; otherwise, cost support remains [8]. Natural Rubber Import Volume - In September 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65%. The top three import sources in September were Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia, with imports of 215,200 tons, 144,000 tons, and 55,600 tons respectively, all with significant month - on - month increases [10]. Rubber Inventory - As of October 24, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 68,705 tons, slightly decreased from the beginning of the month but increased by 14,780.8 tons compared with the same period last year; the general trade spot inventory was 363,524 tons, slightly decreased from the beginning of the month and increased by 85,478.52 tons compared with the same period last year; the domestic third - party inventory was 1,038,951 tons, slightly decreased from the beginning of the month and decreased by 1,634 tons compared with last year. Overall, the domestic natural rubber inventory decreased in October, and the inventory structure continued to improve [13]. Butadiene Price and Production Profit of Butadiene Rubber - In October 2025, the domestic butadiene market price declined. The supply was expected to be loose, and the inventory of upstream and downstream enterprises increased, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. The decline of butadiene price improved the production profit of butadiene rubber enterprises. As of the week of October 31, the theoretical production gross profit of butadiene rubber enterprises was 153.714 yuan/ton, an increase of 48.43 yuan/ton compared with the same period last year, and turned from loss to profit compared with the beginning of October [15]. Butadiene Rubber Inventory - In October, the output of butadiene rubber enterprises was 137,579 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,269 tons and a year - on - year increase of 26,703 tons. Due to limited downstream demand, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure to decline. As of the week of October 31, the inventory of sample butadiene rubber production enterprises was 27,200 tons, an increase from the beginning of the month and an increase of 3,400 tons compared with the same period last year. The inventory of traders continued to decline, but still increased compared with the same period last year [18]. Tire Export - In September 2025, China's truck and bus tire export volume was 400,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.86% and a year - on - year increase of 8.74%. The cumulative export volume from January to September was 3.6279 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.67%. The export volume of passenger car tires was 260,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.28% and a year - on - year increase of 2.87%. The cumulative export volume from January to September was 2.5008 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.26% with a narrowing increase. The export of truck and bus tires to the EU decreased by 25.70% month - on - month and 23.58% year - on - year, and the export of passenger car tires to the EU decreased by 38.9% month - on - month and 22.9% year - on - year, mainly due to the EU's anti - dumping policy [19]. Tire Inventory - As of the end of October, the inventory turnover days of all - steel tires were about 39.01 days, a decrease of about 0.2 days compared with the same period last year, and the inventory turnover days of semi - steel tires were about 44.82 days, an increase of about 8.33 days compared with the same period last year. After the "Double Festival" holiday in October, tire enterprises resumed production, but due to trade frictions, the export orders faced pressure, and the overall inventory declined slowly. The inventory pressure of all - steel tires was relatively small, while that of semi - steel tires was large [21]. Tire Capacity Utilization - As of October 31, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, a year - on - year increase of 6.15%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%, a year - on - year decrease of 7.61%. After the holiday, the production capacity gradually recovered to the pre - holiday level. In the short term, the tire capacity utilization rate is expected to remain stable. The early snow in some areas stimulated the demand for snow tires, but the weak external demand and inventory pressure will limit the further increase of capacity utilization [23]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Macro - disturbances are expected to gradually decrease, and the market will return to fundamental expectation games - The short - term support from weather in rubber - producing areas exists, but the core contradiction is the combination of supply growth expectation and demand weakening risk. The seasonal supply increase due to improved weather in rubber - producing areas is the main pressure source. The EU's anti - dumping policy has led to a decline in tire exports, and domestic demand lacks bright performance. The cost collapse of synthetic rubber and its linkage effect will also drag down the price of natural rubber - In the short term, natural rubber will mainly fluctuate within a range. Pay attention to the development of Sino - US trade relations and US tariff policies, the weather in Southeast Asian main - producing areas on the supply side, and the start - up rate of domestic tire enterprises, inventory de - stocking, and the progress of the EU's anti - dumping policy on the demand side [27]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the double - coking futures showed a unilateral oscillating upward trend. The coking coal price was driven by limited output release and downstream rigid procurement, while coke followed coking coal with slightly weaker elasticity [7]. - Macroeconomic events in October boosted market sentiment. The Sino - US leaders' meeting and relevant policy documents provided positive signals for the market [10][11]. - In the long - term, the coal industry will shift from scale expansion to high - quality development, which will control the disorderly increase in coal supply and may lift the price floor [38]. - The coking coal market has limited supply growth space and low inventory pressure. However, the decline in steel mill profitability and hot metal production may drag on the upward elasticity of coking coal prices. The futures market is expected to remain oscillatingly strong [38]. - Coking enterprises have increased prices multiple times to relieve losses, but the subsequent price increase space is limited due to low steel mill profits and high finished product inventories, and coke prices follow coking coal [41]. 3) Summary by Directory 01. Market Review - In October, the coking coal main contract rose 14.21% with an increase of 119,000 lots in open interest, and the coke main contract rose 9.49% with a decrease of 1,887 lots in open interest. Coking coal supply was limited by environmental and safety factors, and downstream rigid procurement led to inventory depletion. Coke "had pressure on the upper side and support on the lower side" and followed coking coal [7]. 02. Data Analysis - **Macro Analysis**: In October, major macro - events such as the Sino - US leaders' meeting and the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal boosted market sentiment. The proposal guides the coal industry towards high - quality development and the manufacturing industry towards building a modern industrial system [10][11]. - **Domestic Coking Coal Supply**: As of the week ending October 31, the operating rates and daily outputs of sample coal washing plants and mines were lower than the same period last year. After the National Day, the domestic coking coal supply was relatively stable with limited growth space [13]. - **Coking Coal Imports**: In September 2025, China's coking coal imports increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Imports from Mongolia, Russia, and Australia all showed growth, and Mongolia's imports are expected to continue rising [14]. - **Inventory Status**: As of the week ending October 31, the inventories of sample mines, coal washing plants, and ports decreased compared with the same period last year. The overall coking coal inventory pressure was not significant [21]. - **Inventory Replenishment Willingness**: As of October 31, independent coking enterprises had a stronger willingness to replenish coking coal inventory than steel mills. After the holidays, independent coking enterprises gradually replenished inventory, while steel mills mainly purchased on demand [24]. - **Coke Production Capacity Utilization**: As of the week ending October 31, the capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills showed a weakly stable trend, and the coke supply pressure was not significant [26]. - **Coke Demand**: As of the week ending October 31, steel mills' profitability declined, hot metal production was under pressure, and coke consumption slightly weakened but remained at a high level [29]. - **Coke Inventory**: As of the week ending October 31, the coke inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises, steel mills, and ports was not significant. Independent coking enterprises' production and sales were relatively balanced, steel mills reduced inventory after the holidays, and ports had a slight increase in cargo collection [32]. - **Coking Enterprises' Cost and Price Increase**: As of the week ending October 31, independent coking enterprises had an average loss of 32 yuan per ton of coke. Due to the rising coking coal price, coking enterprises raised prices three times, but the subsequent price increase space was limited [34][36]. 03. Future Outlook - From a macro perspective, the long - term development of the coal industry is favorable, and the coking coal futures market is expected to remain oscillatingly strong, but the decline in steel mill profitability and hot metal production may have a negative impact [38]. - Coking enterprises' subsequent price increase space is limited, and their profits are under pressure. Coke prices follow coking coal due to cost - side influence and low inventory pressure [41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The oil price is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations. The weak fundamentals will continue to put pressure on the oil price, while the uncertainty of geopolitics will intensify market volatility. The "weak expectation" fundamentals will suppress the oil price performance, but the shale oil cost will provide psychological support, and the market's downward space may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the WTI crude oil range of $55 - 65 per barrel [7][55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In October, the crude oil market showed a narrow - range fluctuation pattern under the game of long and short factors. At the beginning of the month, OPEC+ announced to maintain a small increase in production, and the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions suppressed the oil price from both supply and demand sides. At the end of the month, the US sanctions on Russian oil companies led to a rebound in the oil price. In the future, the weak fundamentals and geopolitical uncertainties will make the oil price continue wide - range fluctuations [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Sino - US Relations**: The Sino - US leaders' meeting and the positive results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have led to a warming at the macro - level. The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and continue to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for one year. Both sides will adjust relevant measures and extend some tariff exclusion measures [10]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Decision**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but there is uncertainty about a December rate cut. After Fed Chairman Powell's "hawkish" speech, the probability of a December rate cut is expected to be 71%, lower than the previous 90%. If economic data further decline, it will strengthen the expectation of crude oil supply surplus and suppress the oil price [13]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: There were frequent geopolitical events in October, including US - Russia phone communication, US sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the EU's 19th round of sanctions on Russia. These sanctions have increased geopolitical risks, causing the oil price to rebound. However, the impact on Russian oil production and global supply is limited [14]. - **OPEC+ Production Policy**: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. Saudi Arabia is the main force of the increase. The market expects OPEC+ to continue a small increase in production in the November meeting, which will put pressure on the oil price [16]. - **IEA Forecast**: The IEA raised the global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day in 2025 and lowered the demand growth forecast by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, maintaining the expectation of supply surplus [17]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - OPEC+ production increased in September. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran were the main contributors to the increase. OPEC+ is expected to fully implement the 2.2 million barrels per day production increase in the fourth quarter [19]. - US crude oil production reached a record high of 13.644 million barrels per day in the week ending October 24. The US oil drilling rig count increased slightly, but the rebound was limited, and it is expected to remain at a low level [22][24]. - **Demand Side** - In September, the US manufacturing PMI declined, and the Chicago PMI decreased slightly, which suppressed crude oil demand. The US refinery operating rate is expected to increase seasonally in the fourth quarter [26][32]. - In September, China's manufacturing PMI rebounded but remained below the boom - bust line. The operating rates of Chinese refineries showed differentiation, and domestic crude oil consumption faces the pressure of a phased decline [40][44]. - **Inventory** - US EIA crude oil inventories and strategic petroleum reserve inventories decreased in the week ending October 24. Cushing crude oil inventories and gasoline inventories also decreased, but gasoline may face inventory accumulation pressure at the end of the fourth quarter [48][53].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Report's Core View - In November, copper prices will fluctuate at high levels, and the operation strategy of buying on dips should be maintained. There are liquidity easing expectations in the macro - market, and the short - term concern about Sino - US trade issues has significantly eased. Fundamentally, overseas ore supply pressure persists, domestic smelter maintenance impacts deepen, and most inventories are at relatively low levels except in the US. The demand side has strong resilience. After copper prices hit a new high, they lack upward drive and investors need to be vigilant about tail risks and seize adjustment buying opportunities [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.后市研判 (Outlook for the Future) - In November, copper prices will fluctuate at high levels. With the market gradually reaching a consensus on tightening supply, the psychological upper limit of the downstream for copper prices is gradually rising. After copper prices hit a new high, they lack upward drive due to the Fed's hawkish remarks and the rebound of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields. Investors should be vigilant about tail risks and seize adjustment buying opportunities [5][6] 2.行情回顾 (Market Review) - In October, copper prices were generally strong. Affected by overseas mine operation disruptions, copper prices gapped up after the National Day holiday. Then, due to the US provoking a "trade war" against China, copper prices slightly corrected. With the progress of Sino - US negotiations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in October, copper prices rose again and broke through the highest point in May 2024 [8][9] 3.宏观面 (Macroeconomic Aspects) - **Interest Rate Policy**: The Fed cut interest rates in October, but a further rate cut in December is "far from certain". The US government's "shutdown" in October affected the release of economic data. The CPI data in September showed that overall inflation was controllable, which further consolidated the market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut in October [11][14] - **Sino - US Trade Relations**: In October, the US provoked a "trade war" against China again, causing copper prices to fall. However, through Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the two sides reached a consensus on multiple issues, and the short - term concern about Sino - US trade issues significantly eased, enhancing market confidence in the economic growth of the two countries [16] - **Domestic Economic and Policy Situation**: China's Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was reviewed and approved, which will bring policy benefits to the terminal application fields. The copper industry should prevent "involution - style" vicious competition and ensure the safety of the industrial chain and supply chain. The US has adjusted its copper resource strategy, which may change the global copper supply flow [18][22][23] 4.基本面 (Fundamental Aspects) - **Supply Side**: In September, China's copper ore concentrate imports decreased month - on - month, with a sharp drop in shipments from Chile. Overseas mine operation disturbances increased, and the processing fee for imported copper concentrates remained in the negative range. Except for the significant accumulation of copper inventories in the US, LME and SHFE copper inventories decreased or remained stable. In October, the output of electrolytic copper continued to decline due to the peak of smelter maintenance, the impact of recycled copper policies, and the low processing fee of copper concentrates [24][28][31][35] - **Demand Side**: In September, China's scrap copper imports increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The expected decline in the operating rate of the refined copper rod industry in October was due to the high copper price. As of September, the cumulative installed power generation capacity increased year - on - year, and the new photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to continue to grow. The real estate market is weak, with a decline in construction area, new construction area, and sales area. The automobile market maintained a high - growth trend, and the new energy vehicle market performed well. The home appliance market entered a seasonal off - season [39][43][47][50][56][59]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend, influenced by cost and fundamental factors. Supply surplus expectations will put long - term pressure on oil prices, and the entry of the asphalt downstream into the off - season will lead to weakening demand, making it difficult for the fundamentals to provide upward momentum. It is recommended to focus on the BU2601 contract in the range of 3,100 - 3,350 yuan/ton [55] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In October, asphalt showed a weak and volatile trend under the combined influence of the cost side and fundamentals. At the beginning of the month, due to OPEC+ production increase and macro - negative factors, oil prices declined, weakening the cost support for asphalt. The lackluster peak demand season added downward pressure. At the end of the month, the US sanctions on Russian oil companies led to concerns about supply tightening, driving the market to rebound. Overall, with demand entering the off - season and facing downward pressure, the fundamentals are unlikely to improve effectively, and asphalt is expected to mainly fluctuate with crude oil [6] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Fed Interest Rate Cut**: On October 30, the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points from 4.00% - 4.25% to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second cut this year. Fed Chairman Powell's "hawkish" remarks led traders to lower their bets on a December rate cut, with the current expected probability at 71%, down from 90%. The rate cut was in line with market expectations, and future attention should be paid to the US employment market. If economic data further decline, it will intensify concerns about the slowdown of the US economic growth and strengthen the expectation of crude oil supply surplus, suppressing oil prices [11] - **Geopolitical Factors**: There were frequent geopolitical events in October. The US - Russia presidential phone call, US sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the EU's 19th - round sanctions on Russia all affected the oil market. The sanctions led to a short - term rebound in the market, but since they are not a full - scale embargo, the impact on Russian oil production and global supply is limited. Geopolitical fluctuations have made the market somewhat desensitized, and the driving force has limited continuity [12] - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with Saudi Arabia as the main contributor. OPEC+ has increased production for two consecutive months, indicating its determination to compete for market share. Market expectations suggest that OPEC+ may continue to slightly increase production in the November meeting, which will put pressure on prices [14] - **IEA Forecast Adjustment**: The IEA raised the 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, maintaining the expectation of supply surplus [15] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Production**: In October, domestic asphalt production totaled 2.623 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 291,100 tons but a month - on - month decrease of 130,000 tons. Weekly production reached a high at the beginning of the month and then declined as refineries entered the maintenance phase. It is expected that asphalt production will seasonally decline in the fourth quarter, alleviating supply pressure [17] - **Refinery Operating Rate**: In October, the domestic refinery operating rate decreased month - on - month as refineries entered the seasonal maintenance period and consumer demand entered the off - season. The weekly operating rate of asphalt sample enterprises was at a multi - year low and is expected to further decline, gradually easing supply pressure [22] - **Demand Side** - **Overall Demand**: In October, domestic asphalt shipments increased month - on - month in weekly data but were lower than before the National Day. Terminal rush - work drove replenishment demand, but the lackluster peak season led to a decline in terminal demand. As demand enters the off - season, shipments are expected to seasonally decline, and attention should be paid to winter storage [25] - **Modified Asphalt Capacity Utilization**: In October, the domestic modified asphalt capacity utilization rate decreased month - on - month. On October 31, it was 15.03%, 3.91 percentage points lower than the same period last month, showing a trend of first decline and then rebound. As the north enters cold weather, construction is basically completed, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally [27] - **Import and Export** - **Import**: In September, asphalt imports were 341,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 72,600 tons, and the import average price increased slightly and remained stable [32] - **Export**: In September, asphalt exports were 79,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 900 tons, and the export average price increased slightly and remained stable [38] - **Inventory** - **Factory Inventory**: In October, domestic sample enterprise factory inventory decreased, but the rate of decline slowed down. On October 31, the inventory was 685,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 27,000 tons from the same period last month. It is expected to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the decline rate [43] - **Social Inventory**: In October, domestic sample enterprise asphalt social inventory decreased. On October 31, the inventory was 937,000 tons, a decrease of 68,000 tons from the previous week and 168,000 tons from the same period last month. Terminal rush - work drove downstream consumption, accelerating the decline. Although demand is entering the off - season, supply pressure is also easing, and it is expected to continue to decline [47] - **Price Spread**: In October, the asphalt crack spread remained stable, and the asphalt processing dilution profit remained at a low level this year. Since the upward rebound momentum of crude oil is insufficient and asphalt fluctuates around oil prices, the crack spread is expected to remain at a high level [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices are expected to continue weak and volatile due to the weak supply - demand pattern of steel. The peak season is ending, and if demand falls in the off - season, steel mills may increase production cuts. Attention should be paid to demand changes [5][63]. - Iron ore prices are also expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The market is concerned about whether steel mills will reduce production, which may lead to a decline in hot metal production. The supply of iron ore has some changes, and the production and sales of the four major mines in the third quarter are different with limited expected increase in the fourth quarter [5][65]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the 14th Five - Year Plan. Sino - US economic and trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th. In September, the total social electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 4.5% [5]. - **Key Data**: In the first three quarters, China's GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3%. The central bank kept the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged. In September, key steel enterprises produced 62.86 million tons of crude steel, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% [5]. - **Main Views**: Steel prices were weak this week due to the weak supply - demand pattern. Although Sino - US economic and trade negotiations improved the external environment, domestic economic growth slowed in September. The steel fundamentals are still weak, and attention should be paid to whether steel mills will cut production. Iron ore prices were also weak due to concerns about the decline in hot metal production, with changes in supply and demand [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **For Steel (Thread)**: Bullish factors include the emphasis on industries and expanding domestic demand in the Fourth Plenary Session, Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, high steel exports, and the decline in hot - rolled coil inventory. Bearish factors are the weak domestic demand in September and the approaching end of the peak demand season [8]. - **For Iron Ore**: Bullish factors are the emphasis on industries and expanding domestic demand in the Fourth Plenary Session and Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. Bearish factors are the weak domestic demand in September, the approaching end of the peak demand season, the decline in hot metal production, and the continuous accumulation of port inventory [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Macro**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the Fourth Plenary Session were held. The external environment is expected to improve. However, domestic economic growth slowed in the third quarter, with GDP increasing by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than expected. The growth of social consumer goods and fixed - asset investment slowed down [10][15]. - **Terminal**: In September, exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, mainly due to the low base and the relatively resilient global demand. Steel exports were still high but faced challenges. In September, automobile production and sales reached a record high, and new energy vehicles continued to be the main growth driver. Excavator production continued to grow, and the construction machinery industry was booming [16][21][27]. - **(Thread) Spot**: The spot price of thread fluctuated slightly, and the basis changed little [28]. - **Supply**: In September, China's crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; pig iron production was 66.05 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%; steel production was 124.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1% [32]. - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills decreased by 7.79 percentage points to 47.62% this week [33]. - **Output**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.44 percentage points to 84.71%, and the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 0.99 percentage points to 67.86%. The production of five building materials, thread, and hot - rolled coil increased slightly [35][37]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for five building materials, thread, and hot - rolled coil continued to recover this week [39]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of five building materials, thread, and hot - rolled coil decreased this week, showing a trend of de - stocking [43]. - **Spread**: The spread between hot - rolled coil and thread widened [44]. - **(Iron Ore) Spot**: The spot price of iron ore increased slightly, and the basis fluctuated within a narrow range [46]. - **Import and Shipment**: In September, China imported 116.326 million tons of iron ore, a month - on - month increase of 10.5%. From October 13th to 19th, the global iron ore shipment increased [50]. - **Shipment**: The production and sales of the four major mines in the third quarter were different, and the expected increase in the fourth quarter is limited [51]. - **Arrival**: From October 13th to 19th, the arrival of iron ore at Chinese ports decreased [54]. - **Hot Metal Production**: The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.05 tons this week [55]. - **Port Inventory**: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports increased by 145.32 tons this week, and the daily average port clearance volume decreased [59]. - **Steel Mill Consumption and Inventory**: The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills increased by 96.47 tons this week, the daily consumption decreased by 0.89 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased by 0.42 days [61]. 3.4后市研判 - Steel prices are expected to continue weak and volatile due to the weak supply - demand pattern. Attention should be paid to demand changes and whether steel mills will cut production [63]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term due to concerns about the decline in hot metal production and the accumulation of port inventory [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The start of China-US economic and trade consultations and the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal have boosted market confidence [11][13]. - The supply of domestic bauxite is expected to recover significantly, and the import volume of bauxite may gradually increase after the end of the rainy season in Guinea [18][21]. - The oversupply expectation of alumina remains unchanged, and the production of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase further in October [23][27]. - The real estate market is weak, while the new energy industry maintains a high level of prosperity [36][39]. - Inventories at domestic and foreign exchanges are decreasing synchronously, and the domestic spot has changed from flat to discount [42][47]. - The production of recycled aluminum is expected to decline slightly in October, and the import growth of unforged aluminum alloy in October is limited [50][54]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The start of China-US economic and trade consultations has increased market risk appetite, and the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal has enhanced market confidence. The domestic bauxite supply is expected to recover, and the alumina supply oversupply situation remains. The production of electrolytic aluminum may increase, while the real estate market is weak and the new energy industry is prosperous. Inventories are decreasing, and the recycled aluminum and unforged aluminum alloy markets have their own characteristics [11][13][18] 3.2 Multi-Empty Focus - **Positive Factors**: China-US economic and trade consultations, the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal, the recovery of bauxite supply, the increase in electrolytic aluminum production, and the high prosperity of the new energy industry [11][13][18] - **Negative Factors**: The weakness of the real estate market, the shortage of scrap aluminum, and the limited growth of unforged aluminum alloy imports [36][50][54] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Raw Materials**: In September, China's bauxite production was 488.21 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.32%. The import volume of bauxite in September was 15.88 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.2% [18][21]. - **Intermediate Products**: In September, the output of metallurgical-grade alumina decreased by 1.7% month-on-month and increased by 5.3% year-on-year. The output of electrolytic aluminum was 3.81 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [24][27]. - **Downstream Consumption**: The real estate market is weak, with a year-on-year decline in construction area, new construction area, and sales volume. The new energy vehicle industry is booming, with a year-on-year increase in production and sales in September [37][40]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory and SHFE aluminum inventory are both decreasing. As of October 23, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 618,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7,000 tons [43][45]. - **Price**: The domestic spot has changed from flat to discount, and the LME aluminum premium has decreased [47]. - **Recycled Aluminum**: In September, the output of recycled aluminum alloy was 661,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.6% and a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. The import of unforged aluminum alloy in September decreased by 13.2% year-on-year [50][54]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The price of aluminum alloy is expected to remain high due to the firm price of scrap aluminum and the decline in recycled aluminum inventory [61].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper has returned to a strong state, but there may be pressure at the 88,000 integer mark. Investors should wait for a pullback to buy [49]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 01 Report Summary - Market risk preference has increased due to the start of China-US economic and trade consultations. The market is concerned about the results of these consultations [9][11]. - The Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal have boosted market confidence [13]. - The meeting on the operation of key enterprises in the non-ferrous metal industry in the third quarter emphasized preventing "involutionary" vicious competition and ensuring the safety of the industrial chain and supply chain [15]. 02 Multi-Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: - Social inventory has decreased slightly, and domestic and foreign macro - sentiment has recovered [7]. - China's September scrap copper imports increased, with a 2.6% month - on - month and 14.8% year - on - year increase, mainly due to policy adjustments and the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" season [27][28]. - In September, the output of copper strips ended a four - month decline, and the output of refined copper rods increased slightly [30][33]. - The spread between refined and scrap copper has narrowed, which is beneficial for refined copper consumption [36]. - The new energy vehicle industry has maintained a strong momentum, with September production and sales increasing by 23.7% and 24.6% year - on - year respectively [41][42]. - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory has decreased, and the domestic copper spot premium has turned into a discount while the foreign premium - discount range has narrowed [44][47]. - **Bearish Factors**: - In September, China's copper ore imports decreased, with a 6.24% month - on - month decline. The supply from Chile dropped by over 30%. Global copper mine supply shows rigidity and vulnerability [17][19]. - The TC of copper concentrates remains at a low level, with the weekly index at - 40.7 dollars/dry ton as of October 17, down 0.13 dollars/dry ton from the previous week [20][21]. - In October, the output of electrolytic copper continued to decline due to peak smelter maintenance, the impact of recycled copper policies, and a decrease in the incentive to increase production [23][24]. - The real estate market is weak, with a decline in construction area, new construction area, and sales area from January to September [38][39]. 03 Data Analysis - **Supply - side Data**: - China's September copper ore imports were 2.5869 million tons, a 6.24% month - on - month decrease and a 6.43% year - on - year increase. The supply from Chile dropped to 649,400 tons [19]. - As of October 17, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.7 dollars/dry ton, down 0.13 dollars/dry ton from the previous week [21]. - In September, domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1498 million tons, a 3.2% month - on - month decrease and a 14.48% year - on - year increase. In October, production continued to decline [24]. - China's September scrap copper imports were 184,100 tons, a 2.6% month - on - month and 14.8% year - on - year increase [28]. - **Demand - side Data**: - In September, the output of copper strips was 196,200 tons, a 2.35% month - on - month increase but an 8.7% year - on - year decrease [31]. - In September, the output of refined copper rods was 849,300 tons, a 0.18% month - on - month increase, while the output of recycled copper rods was 170,800 tons, a 1.04% month - on - month decrease [34]. - From January to September, real estate development enterprise housing construction area decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, and new construction area decreased by 18.9% year - on - year [39]. - In September, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6% [42]. - **Inventory Data**: - LME copper inventory was 11,240 tons last week, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory increased by 0.5% to 110,240 tons in the week of October 17, and COMEX copper inventory was 347,498 tons. As of October 23, domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 189,800 tons, down 5,700 tons from the 20th [45]. 04后市研判 - Copper has returned to a strong state, but there may be pressure at the 88,000 integer mark. Investors should wait for a pullback to buy [49].

Report Summary - Market focus includes significant changes in US-Russia relations with US sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, and EU approval of the 19th round of sanctions against Russia [7] - Key data shows that as of October 22, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise operating rate was 31.1%, down 4.7 percentage points from the previous cycle; as of October 24, the weekly asphalt output was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 72,000 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory was 710,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons; and the social inventory was 1.005 million tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons [7] - The main view is that in the short term, asphalt presents a pattern of weak supply and demand. Supply decreases seasonally as refineries enter maintenance, and demand is weak due to cold and rainy weather in the north. Crude oil is the main factor affecting the asphalt market. Recent geopolitical risks and supply tightening expectations have led to a rebound in oil prices, but the impact may not be sustainable, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the OPEC+ production meeting on November 2 [7] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the BU2601 contract in the range of 3,200 - 3,350 yuan/ton [8] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt are macro - improvement and geopolitical risks, while bearish factors are weak demand and potential OPEC+ production increase [11] Macro Analysis Sanctions on Russia - The US Treasury sanctioned two major Russian oil companies and their subsidiaries on October 22, covering nearly half of Russia's crude oil exports (about 2.2 million barrels per day in H1). The EU approved the 19th round of sanctions on the same day, including banning Russian LNG imports and adding travel restrictions on Russian diplomats [12] - These sanctions have increased geopolitical risks and pushed up the market, but they are not a full - scale embargo. They mainly increase Russia's oil trade costs, with limited impact on global supply. The upward movement of the market is more emotional, and the rebound space of oil prices is limited due to expected supply surplus [12] Fed Rate Cut Expectations - Due to the US government shutdown, economic data is delayed, posing challenges to the Fed's decision - making. However, market expectations for a Fed rate cut are rising. As of October 23, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October is 96.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut in December is 96.5% [13] - Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the long - term quantitative tightening (QT) may be near the end. The support of potential rate cuts for the market is limited [13] IEA Forecast - The IEA raised the 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ production increases are putting more pressure on the supply side, and the supply - demand imbalance is expected to be more severe [14] Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - As of October 24, the weekly domestic asphalt output was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 72,000 tons from the previous week. Output from local refineries decreased significantly, while that from major refineries was basically flat. Major refineries' operating rates may have peaked, and supply pressure is expected to decrease [15] - As of October 22, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 31.1%, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points from the previous cycle. The operating rates in South China and Shandong decreased significantly. With major refineries entering seasonal maintenance, supply pressure is expected to ease [23] Demand - As of October 24, the weekly domestic asphalt shipment volume was 429,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from the previous statistical date. However, as demand enters the off - season, shipment volume is likely to decline seasonally [24] - As of October 24, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 12.09%, a decrease of 0.51 percentage points from the previous week. It is expected to decline further in the fourth quarter as the downstream enters the off - season [27] Inventory - As of October 24, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 710,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons from the previous week, mainly due to the decrease in East China. Cold and rainy weather in the north has affected construction and inventory turnover, and inventory accumulation pressure is increasing [36] - As of October 24, the domestic asphalt social inventory was 1.005 million tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons from the previous week, continuing the downward trend since August but at a slower pace [41] Spread - As of October 24, the weekly processing profit of domestic asphalt was - 337.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.6 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic asphalt basis was 193 yuan/ton, and as of October 22, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 54.72 [50] Market Outlook - In the short term, asphalt maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply is affected by refinery maintenance, and the demand is limited by weather. Crude oil is the key factor for the asphalt market. Geopolitical risks have led to a short - term rebound in oil prices, but the sustainability is uncertain. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the OPEC+ production meeting on November 2. The BU2601 contract in the range of 3,200 - 3,350 yuan/ton is recommended for attention [52]