1. Report Summary - The weak employment data released by the US strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this month, and the US dollar index weakened. The current macro - sentiment still follows the change of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the performance of this week's US non - farm payrolls data is the focus [5][11]. - The domestic manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing sentiment improved [5][13]. - The tightness in the copper mine end persists. The spot processing fee of domestic copper concentrates has declined continuously, and there is a large difference between holders and smelters on the processing fee. The estimated output of domestic electrolytic copper in August is 1.1683 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 15.3%. Domestic smelters' willingness to cut production is still not strong, which in turn supports the copper concentrate quotation [5]. - Copper inventory changes are not significant. The inventory of domestic electrolytic copper has not increased significantly. The Fed's interest - rate cut provides upward space for copper prices. The tight copper mine situation and the improvement of the macro - situation jointly support copper prices. The trading strategy is that copper prices may oscillate stronger, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the 81,000 mark above [5]. 2. Bull - Bear Focus Bullish Factors - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is heating up [8]. - The spot processing fee continues to decline, and the tightness at the mine end still exists [8]. - The spot continues to maintain a premium [8]. Bearish Factors - Social inventory continues to accumulate [8]. - The output of electrolytic copper continues to remain at a high level [8]. 3. Data Analysis International Economic Data - The US 7 - month core PCE price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations and the previous value. The August ISM manufacturing index rose slightly from 48 to 48.7, lower than the expected 49, and has been below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The new order index expanded for the first time since the beginning of this year, but the output index fell back into the contraction range. The number of job openings in July dropped to a 10 - month low. The Fed's Beige Book showed that economic activity in most parts of the US has changed little recently, with price increases and little change in overall employment levels. Fed Governor Waller said that interest - rate cuts should start this month and could be cut multiple times in the next 3 - 6 months [11]. - The ADP employment data in August showed an increase of 54,000 people, lower than expected. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending August 30 was 237,000, higher than expected. The cooling of the US labor market has strengthened the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 97.4% [11]. Domestic Manufacturing Data - The domestic manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing sentiment. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and above the critical point; the PMI of medium - sized enterprises was 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month and below the critical point; the PMI of small enterprises was 46.6%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and below the critical point [13]. Copper - Related Data - **Copper Ore and Concentrate Imports**: In July, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.56 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.96% and a year - on - year increase of 18.45%. The supplies from Chile and Peru both rebounded, with a month - on - month increase of over 10%. Chile's copper output in July was 445,214 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase of 5% and a limited year - on - year increase. However, in late July, a collapse accident occurred in a new mining area of the world's largest underground copper mine of Codelco, and Codelco lowered its 2025 copper production guidance in August [16]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fee**: As of the week of August 29, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 41.2 US dollars per dry ton, down 2.59 US dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The spot processing fee of domestic copper concentrates has declined continuously, and the tightness at the mine end will continue to trouble the copper market [20]. - **Refined Copper Production and Imports**: In July, China's refined copper production was 1.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%. Affected by the shortage of cold material supply, some smelters started to cut production slightly. In August, the number of smelters cutting production due to the shortage of copper concentrates and cold materials increased compared with July. In July, China's refined copper imports were 336,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 12.05%. The import loss narrowed in July, and imports remained at a relatively high level within the year [25]. - **Scrap Copper Imports**: In July, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.98%. The supplies from Asian countries such as Japan, Thailand, and South Korea increased significantly. The main driving factor for the increase in scrap copper imports was strong domestic demand [28]. - **Copper Scrap - Refined Spread**: As of September 4, the copper scrap - refined spread was around - 305 yuan per ton, which was not conducive to refined copper consumption [32]. - **Copper Inventory**: LME copper inventory rebounded last week to a three - month high of 158,575 tons. SHFE copper inventory decreased slightly in the week of August 29, with a weekly decrease of 2.39% to 79,748 tons. COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate to a new high since January 2004. On September 4, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 148,100 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons from the 1st [50]. - **Copper Premium**: On September 4, the premium of Shanghai Wumaohui 1 copper spot was around 135 yuan per ton, and the premium range narrowed. The LME 0 - 3 spot discount was around - 66.89 US dollars per ton, and the discount range narrowed [54]. 4. Future Outlook - Copper prices may oscillate stronger, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the 81,000 mark above [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures market showed a pattern of weakening in the first four trading days and strengthening in the afternoon of Friday, recovering the weekly decline. With the end of the parade, the industry will see production recovery, and the market supply - demand structure will dominate the market. Entering the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", attention should be paid to the degree of demand improvement. Currently, the coking coal market is in a weak equilibrium, and short - term fluctuations are the main trend [6][38]. - The increase in coke prices has eroded some of the steel mills' profits. The steel mills' acceptance of coke price increases has gradually slowed down, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises. The eighth round of price increases is difficult to implement, and the steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts. In the short term, the coke futures market will fluctuate with coking coal [33][41]. Summary According to the Directory Report Summary (PART 01) - In the first four trading days of this week, the double - coking futures market weakened, and on Friday afternoon, it strengthened to recover the decline. The market bets that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is close to 100%. The domestic central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation on September 5. The macro - sentiment warmed up on Friday, and commodities and the stock market rose in resonance. After the parade, the industry production will recover, and the supply - demand structure will dominate the market. The coking coal market is in a weak equilibrium, and short - term fluctuations are the main trend [6]. - As of September 2, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites improved, with a slightly narrower increase, and the improvement in housing construction projects was greater. Starting from September 4, Tangshan independent steel mills gradually resumed normal production. In early September, some coal mines in Shanxi had large - scale and regional shutdowns, mainly in Changzhi, Linfen, and Jinzhong, and most shutdowns were for 2 - 5 days, with some resuming production on the evening of September 3 [7]. - The supply of coking coal has shrunk, upstream inventory has decreased slightly, independent coking enterprises have continued to reduce coking coal inventory, steel mills mainly purchase raw materials based on rigid demand, the overall coke output has slightly declined, iron - water production has decreased, coke consumption has followed suit, and the profitability of coking enterprises has continued to improve [7]. Multi - Empty Focus (PART 02) - **Bullish Factors**: Reduced inventory pressure of coking coal, expected reduction in coking coal supply, expected increase in iron - water production after the parade, high certainty of Fed rate cuts, and loose domestic liquidity [10]. - **Bearish Factors**: Temporary decline in iron - water production leading to weakening coke demand, and low enthusiasm for downstream coking coal replenishment [10]. Data Analysis (PART 03) - **Coking Coal Supply**: The operating rates of 314 sample coal - washing plants and 523 sample mines decreased this week, and the daily output of clean coal decreased. The customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port slightly declined. With the end of the parade, some coal mines have resumed production [13]. - **Coking Coal Upstream Inventory**: As of September 5, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines and 314 sample coal - washing plants decreased, while the port coking coal inventory increased slightly. The upstream inventory has changed from an increase to a decrease [18]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises' Coking Coal Inventory**: As of September 5, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises decreased, and the inventory - available days decreased. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises increased slightly, and the enthusiasm for replenishing coking coal inventory remained weak [21]. - **Steel Mills' Raw Material Inventory**: As of September 5, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased, and the inventory - available days decreased. The coke inventory increased, and the available days increased. Steel mills mainly purchase raw materials based on rigid demand [25]. - **Coke Output**: As of September 5, the capacity utilization rates and daily output of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel enterprises decreased. The output of coking enterprises changed little, while the output of steel mills decreased significantly due to parade - related production restrictions [27]. - **Iron - Water Production and Coke Consumption**: As of September 5, China's coke consumption and the daily output of iron - water from 247 steel enterprises decreased. The profitability rate of steel enterprises declined. With the end of the parade, steel mills have resumed production, and iron - water production will recover [32]. - **Coking Enterprises' Profitability**: As of September 5, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 64 yuan/ton, and the profitability continued to improve. The seventh round of coke price increases was implemented, but the eighth round is difficult to implement, and steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts [33]. - **Double - Coking Forward - Month Basis Structure**: The spot and futures prices of double - coking are oscillating at high levels [35]. 后市研判 (PART 04) - The market bets that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is close to 100%. The domestic central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation on September 5. After the parade, the industry will see production recovery, and the supply - demand structure will dominate the market. The coking coal market is in a weak equilibrium, and short - term fluctuations are the main trend [38]. - The increase in coke prices has eroded some of the steel mills' profits, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises. The eighth round of price increases is difficult to implement, and the steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts. In the short term, the coke futures market will fluctuate with coking coal [41].

Report Summary - The report focuses on the rubber market from September 3 - 9, 2025, analyzing its macro - and micro - level factors and providing a short - term outlook [5][6] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Rubber fundamentals have no obvious contradictions. With the Fed's potential rate cut boosting monetary easing expectations and post - parade economic policies coming back as the trading mainline, rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [6][28] Summary by Directory Report Summary (PART 01) - Rainfall in Southeast Asian natural rubber main - producing areas changed compared to the previous period, with varying impacts on tapping. The rubber market showed a narrow - range oscillation from Monday to Thursday and a stronger trend on Friday. Macro - factors improved market sentiment, and the cost side was supported. However, tire production utilization declined, and terminal demand had no strong recovery signs [5][6] - The market bets that the probability of the Fed's September rate cut is nearly 100% after the release of disappointing ADP employment data. The central bank will conduct a 1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month buy - out reverse repo operation [7] Multi - Empty Focus (PART 02) - Bullish factors include weather - related supply disruptions leading to stable - to - stronger raw material prices, rubber inventory reduction, and the Fed's potential rate cut with loose domestic funds. Bearish factor is the slight decline in tire operating rates [10] Data Analysis (PART 03) - Natural rubber raw material prices are stable - to - stronger. As of September 4, Thai fresh glue was 55.8 baht/kg, cup - lump was 52.05 baht/kg, Yunnan glue was 14,600 yuan/ton, and Hainan glue was 13,400 yuan/ton [11] - Natural rubber inventory continued to decline slightly. As of August 31, 2025, China's social inventory was 126.5 million tons, down 0.6 million tons month - on - month, and Qingdao's inventory was 60.2 million tons, down 0.4 million tons [14] - The price of butadiene, the raw material for butadiene rubber, fluctuated within a narrow range. As of September 4, the price in Shandong was 9,550 - 9,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 185 yuan/ton [15] - The supply - demand structure of butadiene rubber is relatively loose. As of September 5, the factory inventory decreased by 450 tons, while the trader inventory increased by 640 tons, and production increased by 125 tons [21] - Tire overall capacity utilization decreased. As of September 5, the capacity utilization of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased significantly due to planned maintenance, and terminal demand has not fully recovered [22] - The spread of the three major rubber contracts on the futures market was stable, indicating no internal differentiation in the rubber fundamentals [24] 后市研判 (PART 04) - From a macro perspective, the Fed's potential rate cut and domestic loose funds improved market sentiment. From a fundamental perspective, raw material prices are supported, inventory pressure is reduced, but tire production utilization declined, and terminal demand is weak. Overall, rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of September 5, the fundamentals of asphalt showed a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand. The weekly production and operating rate of asphalt decreased due to refinery turnarounds or overhauls, while the shipments increased slightly, leading to significant declines in factory and social inventories. Recently, the influencing factors of crude oil were mixed, with geopolitical disturbances providing intermittent support to oil prices and expected changes in supply being bearish for oil prices. In the short term, under the combined influence of fundamentals and cost, asphalt had no clear direction and was in a wide - range oscillation. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of asphalt was not prominent, and crude oil fluctuations would dominate the market trend. It was recommended to track the results of OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical developments [7]. - Looking ahead, asphalt was expected to continue its wide - range oscillation under the dual influence of fundamentals and cost. Attention should be paid to the range of 3350 - 3500 yuan/ton for the BU2511 contract. In terms of supply and demand, although demand showed signs of recovery after recent rainfall ended and both social and factory inventories decreased, considering the approaching end of the peak demand season, the demand side might not perform beyond expectations, providing weak support to the market. For crude oil, the recent influencing factors were mixed, with frequent geopolitical disturbances and the news of OPEC+ potential production increase suppressing market sentiment, leaving oil prices without a clear direction. It was advisable to focus on the results of the OPEC+ production meeting and track geopolitical developments [67]. Summary by Directory Report Summary - Market news indicated that OPEC+ would consider another production increase at the Sunday production meeting. The Fed's "Beige Book" showed price increases in all regions, with most reporting "moderate or slight" inflation. US President Trump hinted at implementing second and third - stage oil sanctions against Russia [6]. - As of September 5, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 28.1%, a 1.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous statistical period. The weekly asphalt production was 50.9 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons from the previous week. The factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 64.2 tons, a decrease of 3.2 tons from the previous week, and the social inventory was 122.5 tons, a decrease of 4.5 tons from the previous week. It was recommended to focus on the BU2511 contract in the range of 3350 - 3500 yuan/ton [7]. Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt included inventory decline and raw - material - end disturbances, while bearish factors were demand falling short of expectations and insufficient upward driving force at the cost end [10]. Macroeconomic Analysis - OPEC+ might start a new round of production increase. Two sources said that OPEC+ would consider further increasing oil production at the Sunday meeting to regain market share. Another production increase would mean OPEC+ starting to lift the second - layer production cuts of about 1.65 million barrels per day, 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule. OPEC+ current production policies mainly consisted of three parts, and if OPEC+ increased production at the September meeting, it would strengthen the expectation of market oversupply, and oil prices might test previous lows; if the status quo was maintained, oil prices might recover, but the rebound space was expected to be limited [13]. - Geopolitical uncertainties caused periodic disturbances to oil prices. The Russia - Ukraine tension escalated, European countries' plan to send troops to Ukraine was exposed, and the Israeli military's actions escalated on two fronts [14]. Data Analysis - **Supply**: As of September 5, the weekly asphalt production was 50.9 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons from the previous week, mainly due to some refineries switching production or undergoing maintenance. As of September 3, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 28.1%, a 1.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous statistical period, with more significant declines in the southwest and south China regions. The decrease in the refinery operating rate was mainly due to the decline in refinery profits [15][23]. - **Demand**: As of September 5, the weekly asphalt shipments were 41.2 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons from the previous week, indicating a phased improvement in demand after the end of rainfall. However, the weekly capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt was 15.89%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous week, with more significant declines in the north and central China regions [26][29]. - **Import**: In July, the domestic asphalt imports were 38.05 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 tons and a year - on - year increase of 16.53%. From January to July, the cumulative imports were 210.55 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.5% [37]. - **Export**: In July, the domestic asphalt exports were 5.57 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62 tons. From January to July, the cumulative exports were 33.49 tons, a year - on - year increase of 46.45% [40]. - **Inventory**: As of September 5, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 64.2 tons, a decrease of 3.2 tons from the previous week, and the social inventory was 122.5 tons, a decrease of 4.5 tons from the previous week [7]. - **Spread**: As of September 5, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing dilution was - 614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.9 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of September 3, the asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio was 55.67, and as of September 4, the asphalt basis was 258 yuan/ton [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, influenced by geopolitical and fundamental factors, crude oil prices rose first and then fell, continuing the previous wide - range oscillation pattern. Geopolitical disturbances and potential supply tightening concerns provided intermittent upward momentum, while OPEC+ considering another production increase added supply pressure and suppressed prices. In the short term, the fundamental contradictions of crude oil are not prominent. The expectation of supply surplus in the fourth quarter weighs on prices, but it has not yet been reflected in inventories due to the current peak demand season in the Northern Hemisphere. Geopolitical factors cause only short - term disturbances and cannot form a trend. It is expected that the wide - range oscillation will continue. Attention should be paid to the results of the OPEC+ production meeting and the situation between the US and Venezuela. The recommended trading strategy is to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $60 - $65 per barrel [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market News**: OPEC+ will consider another production increase at the Sunday meeting; the Fed's "Beige Book" shows price increases in all regions with most reporting "moderate or slight" inflation; US President Trump hinted at second and third - stage oil sanctions against Russia [7]. - **Key Data**: US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending August 29 increased by 2.415 million barrels (expected a decrease of 2.031 million barrels, previous value was a decrease of 2.392 million barrels); EIA Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 1.59 million barrels (previous value was a decrease of 0.838 million barrels); EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.509 million barrels (previous value was an increase of 0.776 million barrels) [7]. - **Main Viewpoints**: Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical and fundamental factors, showing a wide - range oscillation. The recommended trading strategy is to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $60 - $65 per barrel [8]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Side Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Geopolitical disturbances and shale oil cost support [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: Fading expectation of the consumption peak season and OPEC+'s planned production increase [11]. 3.3 Macro Analysis - **OPEC+ Potential Production Increase**: OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production at the Sunday meeting, which means starting to lift the second - layer production cut of about 1.65 million barrels per day (1.6% of global demand), one year earlier than planned. If production is increased in September, it will strengthen the expectation of supply surplus and may push oil prices to test previous lows. If the status quo is maintained, oil prices may recover, but the rebound space is limited [14]. - **Fed's "Beige Book" and Related Data**: The Fed's "Beige Book" shows price increases in all regions, with fewer mentions of inflation and a decrease in mentions of "slowdown". US July JOLTs job openings were 7.181 million, lower than expected, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased. US August ADP employment increased by 0.054 million, lower than expected. Fed official Christopher Waller released "dovish" remarks, suggesting starting a rate cut at the next meeting [15]. - **Geopolitical Uncertainty**: The Russia - Ukraine conflict has escalated, with Russia launching large - scale attacks on 14 regions in Ukraine. European countries plan to send troops to Ukraine, and Israel's military actions in the Middle East have also intensified, causing short - term disturbances to oil prices [16]. 3.4 Data Analysis - **US Crude Oil Production**: As of the week ending August 29, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.016 million barrels per day to 13.423 million barrels per day. Although production decreased last week, there are signs of a rebound, increasing supply pressure [19]. - **US Oil Drilling Rigs**: As of the week ending August 29, the total number of US oil drilling rigs was 412, an increase of 1 from the previous period. The decline in the number of drilling rigs has slowed down, and it is expected to remain at a low level as the current oil price is below the shale oil profit range [21]. - **Demand**: US crude oil consumption demand decreased by 0.195 million barrels per day to 19.82 million barrels per day as of the week ending August 29, mainly due to a decrease in refinery operating rates. Gasoline demand increased by 0.1447 million barrels per day to 10.0984 million barrels per day. US refinery operating rates decreased to 94.3% as of the week ending August 29. In China, as of September 5, the operating rate of major refineries was 81.59% (a 0.19 - percentage - point increase), and the operating rate of independent refineries was 60.02% (a 1.3 - percentage - point increase). The comprehensive refining profit of major refineries decreased by 133.8 yuan/ton to 661.86 yuan/ton, and that of independent refineries decreased by 41.72 yuan/ton to 188.11 yuan/ton [25][27][33]. - **Inventory**: US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 2.415 million barrels as of the week ending August 29, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.509 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 1.59 million barrels, while gasoline inventory decreased by 3.795 million barrels [43][47]. - **Crack Spread**: As of September 3, the US crude oil crack spread was $21.99 per barrel, showing a recovery and indicating a continued warming of US refined oil consumption [48]. 3.5 Future Market Judgment - This week, crude oil prices showed a wide - range oscillation. Geopolitical factors provided intermittent support, while OPEC+'s potential production increase suppressed prices. In the short term, the influencing factors are mixed, and it is difficult to form a continuous driving force. If OPEC+ implements a new round of production increase, oil prices may test the annual low. If the status quo is maintained, oil prices may recover, but the rebound space is limited. Attention should be paid to the $60 per barrel support level of WTI crude oil [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates, and the easing of liquidity will open up upward space for copper prices. Coupled with the tight supply of copper mines, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to maintain the operation strategy of buying on dips. The upper level should pay attention to the pressure at the 81,000 mark [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In August, copper prices remained in a high - level consolidation. On August 1st, the lowest price of Shanghai copper reached 77,960 yuan/ton, and on August 25th, the highest price reached 79,830 yuan/ton. The market's focus shifted to the time and rhythm of the Fed's interest rate cuts. The tight raw material supply continued, and the downstream's acceptance of high prices was insufficient, limiting the upward space [10]. 3.2 Macro - aspect - **Overseas**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September. The probability of a rate cut is high, and it is expected to cut rates twice this year. The employment data in July was not as expected, but the labor market remained relatively stable. The S&P and Fitch affirmed the US sovereign credit rating. The US manufacturing and service PMI in August improved. The eurozone's economic data improved significantly, and the market's expectation of the ECB's rate cut remained stable [8][15][17]. - **Domestic**: The domestic economy is generally stable. In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The growth rate of domestic economic data in July and August slowed down, and it is expected that there will be more policy support in the second half of the year [23]. 3.3 Fundamental - aspect - **Supply**: - In July, China's copper ore imports increased, with a month - on - month increase of 8.96% and a year - on - year increase of 18.45%. The supply from Chile and Peru rebounded. However, the tight supply situation of copper mines has not improved significantly, and the spot processing fee of copper concentrates has declined slightly [27][30]. - In July, China's refined copper production was 1.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%, but a month - on - month decrease. In August, the number of smelters reducing production increased due to the tight supply of copper concentrates and cold materials [37]. - **Inventory**: Currently, copper inventories are relatively high. As of August 28th, the COMEX copper inventory was 275,200 tons, the bonded - area copper inventory was 83,300 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory was 81,700 tons. With the arrival of the peak season from September to October, there may be a possibility of destocking [33]. - **Demand**: - In July, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73%, mainly driven by strong domestic demand [39]. - From January to July, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China increased by 18.2% year - on - year. The installed capacity of new energy sources such as solar and wind power increased rapidly, and the investment in power grid projects increased by 12.5% year - on - year [43]. - In July, the production and sales of automobiles in China increased year - on - year. The production of new energy vehicles in July was 1.176 million, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The automobile industry is expected to continue to drive copper consumption [47]. - In July, the production of household refrigerators and air conditioners in China decreased month - on - month. The production of refrigerators decreased due to the end of promotional activities and inventory pressure, and the production of air conditioners decreased due to the return to rationality of the market and the suppression of export demand by US tariffs [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August 2025, the prices of alumina and electrolytic aluminum futures showed a divergent trend, with alumina prices declining and electrolytic aluminum prices rising slightly. The Fed's expected rate cut in September has increased, and the economic data in the eurozone has improved significantly. The domestic economy is generally stable, but there is greater pressure on economic growth from July to August, and more policy support is expected in the second half of the year. The increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs has limited impact on domestic aluminum prices, and the change in Shanxi's mining rights transfer registration has limited impact on domestic bauxite production. The expected oversupply of alumina remains unchanged, while electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a profit of over 3,000 yuan per ton in the second half of the year. As the peak season approaches, the downstream aluminum processing industry is gradually recovering, and the demand for aluminum in the new energy and automotive industries is growing rapidly, but the demand for aluminum in the real estate industry remains weak. The LME aluminum inventory is stable, and the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is approaching an inflection point. The differentiation in the recycled aluminum industry is intensifying, and the import volume in July hit a four - year low, with the expectation of remaining low in August [6][7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Aluminum Futures Price Trends**: In August, the alumina futures price showed a downward trend, dropping from a maximum of 3,317 yuan/ton to a minimum of 3,006 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 9.38%. The electrolytic aluminum futures price rose slightly, reaching a maximum of 20,950 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Environment - **US Economy**: In July, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. However, the employment rate remained relatively low, and the labor market was relatively stable. The S&P and Fitch both confirmed the US "AA +" sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook. The Fed's expected rate cut in September has increased. The market believes that a rate cut in September is a high - probability event, and attention should be paid to the decline compared to the June dot - plot [12]. - **Eurozone Economy**: The economic data in the eurozone has improved significantly. Germany's manufacturing PMI jumped from 46.9 to 49.9, approaching the boom - bust line for the first time in three years. The eurozone's August PMI rose to 50.5, breaking above the boom - bust line for the first time since June 2022. The market's expectation of the ECB's rate cut this year remains relatively stable [14]. - **Domestic Economy**: In July, China's industrial added value, social consumer goods retail sales, and fixed - asset investment all showed certain growth, but the growth rate of consumer goods retail and fixed - asset investment decreased year - on - year. The manufacturing PMI remained in the contraction range in August. It is expected that the domestic economic growth rate may decline in the second half of the year compared to the second quarter, and more policy support is awaited [20]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Bauxite**: The change in Shanxi's mining rights transfer registration has limited impact on domestic bauxite production. From January to July 2025, China's bauxite production increased year - on - year. Affected by the rainy season in Guinea, the shipment volume of bauxite is expected to decline from August to October, and the domestic bauxite supply may be in a tight balance or even face a slight shortage [26][29][33]. - **Alumina**: Although there have been disturbances in the alumina supply recently, the expected oversupply remains unchanged. In July 2025, China's alumina production was 7.565 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The operating capacity of alumina is at a relatively high level, and the production willingness of enterprises is generally high [34][35]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a profit of over 3,000 yuan per ton in the second half of the year. In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. The growth space for domestic electrolytic aluminum production is limited. Overseas, there are a few incremental electrolytic aluminum projects, such as the 600,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of Xinfa Group's Taijing Aluminum Co., Ltd. in Indonesia, which is expected to be put into production in 2026, and the 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of Juwang in Indonesia may start production in the fourth quarter of this year [38][41][45]. - **Downstream Demand**: As the peak season approaches, the average weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has increased by 0.5% to 60%. The new energy and automotive industries have strong demand for aluminum. In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of solar and wind power in China increased significantly year - on - year. In July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and it is expected that the annual automobile sales will increase by 4.7% in 2025. However, the demand for aluminum in the real estate industry remains weak [47][51][55]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis - **LME Aluminum Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory is generally stable, and the low inventory still supports the LME market's monthly spread and basis. However, attention should be paid to the risk of policy changes regarding Russian aluminum in the overseas market [62]. - **Domestic Aluminum Ingot Inventory**: At the end of August, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly, but it is expected that the social inventory of aluminum ingots will enter the seasonal destocking cycle in September [65]. - **Recycled Aluminum Inventory**: As of August 21, the domestic recycled aluminum alloy social inventory was 35,100 tons, with a slowdown in the inventory accumulation rate. The shortage of scrap aluminum is difficult to ease in the short term, and the ADC12 price is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation [73]. 3.5 Import and Export Analysis - In July 2025, the import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.6%. The export volume was 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. The import volume in July hit a new low since February 2021, mainly due to the long - term price inversion and the off - season demand [71].

Report Overview - The report is a copper monthly report for August 2025, released by AVIC Futures [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating Report's Core View - In September, it is recommended to buy on dips. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates, which will loosen liquidity and open up upward space for copper prices. Coupled with the tight supply of copper mines and the traditional peak consumption season from September to October, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to maintain the operation strategy of buying on dips, with attention paid to the pressure at the 81,000 yuan mark [6][7] Summaries by Directory 1. Market Outlook - In September, it is recommended to buy on dips. The overseas focus is on the Fed's September interest - rate meeting, with a high probability of a rate cut. If the rate cut is greater than or equal to 25bps, it is considered bullish; less than 25bps is neutral. The Q3 rate cuts will continue to open up space, and two rate cuts are still expected this year, which will relieve the upward pressure on metals. The euro - zone economic data has improved significantly, and the sustainability of the improvement should be monitored. The domestic economy is generally stable, with the RMB exchange rate strengthening. There is still a large policy space in the fourth quarter, and there is a possibility of further rate cuts and reserve - requirement ratio cuts. The tight supply of copper mines this year is stronger than last year, and the traditional peak consumption season from September to October also supports copper prices. Copper prices may fluctuate strongly, and the operation strategy of buying on dips is recommended [6][7] 2. Market Review - In August, copper prices maintained a high - level consolidation. On August 1, the lowest price of Shanghai copper reached 77,960 yuan/ton, and on August 25, the highest price reached 79,830 yuan/ton. The market's focus shifted to the Fed's rate - cut time and rhythm. On the fundamental side, the raw - material supply remained tight. After the implementation of the 232 reciprocal tariffs, the inventory in non - US regions increased slightly, but the inventory - building speed was slow. The downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited, which restricted the upward space [9][10] 3. Macroeconomic Aspect US - In July, the non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the year - on - year increase in hourly wages rose from 3.8% to 3.9%. The employment rate remained relatively low, and the labor market was relatively stable. Standard & Poor's and Fitch confirmed the US sovereign credit ratings. The preliminary values of the US manufacturing and service PMIs in August were higher than expected. The CPI, core CPI, and PPI in July increased year - on - year. The durable - goods orders decreased month - on - month. After Fed Chairman Powell's speech, traders increased their bets on a September rate cut and fully priced in two rate cuts by the end of the year [14] Euro - zone - The German and French manufacturing PMIs improved significantly in August. The euro - zone's August PMI rose above the boom - bust line for the first time since June 2022. The second - quarter GDP annual rate was in line with expectations. The ECB President said that the current tariff situation was better than the worst - case scenario. The market's expectation of an ECB rate cut this year remained stable [16] China - In July, the added value of large - scale industries, social - consumption retail sales, and other economic data showed certain trends. The growth rate of economic data from July to August faced greater pressure, and more policy support was expected. The RMB exchange rate was relatively stable, and once it strengthened, there would be more space for fiscal and monetary policies. It is expected that there will still be a large policy space in the fourth quarter, and there is a possibility of rate cuts and reserve - requirement ratio cuts [21][26] 4. Fundamental Aspect Supply - In July, China's copper - ore imports increased. The supply from Chile and Peru rebounded. The spot processing fee for copper concentrates showed a bottom - rebound trend, but the overall rebound was limited, and the tight supply situation remained. Due to the impact of Freeport Indonesia's copper - concentrate exports, the processing fee decreased slightly. Codelco lowered its annual copper - output target [28][32] Inventory - Global copper inventory was affected by tariffs and the domestic peak season. US copper inventory reached a multi - year high, and LME copper inventory increased significantly in July - August. The inventory in bonded areas and the SHFE remained stable. Currently, copper inventory is high, and there may be a possibility of inventory reduction during the peak season from September to October [35] Production - In July, China's refined - copper production decreased slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the tight supply of cold materials. In August, the number of smelters reducing production due to supply shortages increased. The import volume of refined copper decreased slightly month - on - month but was still at a relatively high level this year [40] Demand - **Waste copper**: In July, China's waste - copper imports increased more than expected, mainly driven by strong domestic demand [42] - **New energy**: As of the end of July, the installed capacity of new energy power generation increased significantly year - on - year. The investment in power grids increased, which was conducive to copper consumption [47] - **Real estate**: The real - estate market was still weak, but policies in Beijing and Shanghai were optimized, and the release of the "Opinions on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" was expected to accelerate urban renewal [51] - **Automobile**: In July, automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. The production of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. The full - year sales of automobiles are expected to increase, which will drive copper consumption [55] - **Home appliances**: In July, the production of refrigerators and air - conditioners decreased month - on - month. The production of refrigerators decreased due to the release of pre - demand, and the production of air - conditioners decreased due to the end of promotions and US tariffs [57]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, domestic bauxite prices are stable, and the change in Shanxi's mining rights transfer registration has limited impact on domestic bauxite production. With high operating capacity and output, and the possibility of increased imported alumina inflows, there is a strong expectation of supply surplus, putting pressure on prices. - For electrolytic aluminum, in September, the overseas focus is on the US Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting. It is likely that there will be a rate cut in September. The supply changes little, and the operating output increases slightly. As the seasonal consumption peak approaches, the downstream start - up rate rises slightly, but the inventory continues to accumulate. Macro and fundamental factors may lead to the aluminum price oscillating strongly, with resistance at the 21000 - 21500 level, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. - For cast aluminum alloy, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and some enterprises have reduced or stopped production due to tax policy adjustments. The demand in the communication field is picking up, and the market is at the transition stage from the off - season to the peak season. The spot price is expected to remain firm, and the price difference between the alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The reference operating range for the main contract is 20000 - 20600 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook - **Alumina**: Domestic bauxite price stability, high production, and possible imported inflows lead to supply surplus and price pressure. Pay attention to the new industrial plan and the situation in Guinea [6]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Focus on the US Fed's September interest - rate meeting. Supply is stable with a slight increase, demand is approaching the peak season, but inventory is still accumulating. Aluminum price may oscillate strongly, and a buying - on - dips strategy is recommended [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, tax policy affects production, demand is showing signs of improvement, and the price is expected to be firm with a narrowing price difference [6]. 2. Market Review - In August, the futures prices of alumina and electrolytic aluminum showed different trends. Alumina futures prices generally weakened, with a monthly decline of 9.38% from a high of 3317 yuan/ton to a low of 3006 yuan/ton, while electrolytic aluminum futures prices rose slightly, reaching a high of 20950 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3. Macroeconomic Aspects - **US Economy**: In July, non - farm employment data was poor, but the employment level remained relatively low. Credit ratings were stable. Economic data such as PMI and inflation showed mixed trends. After Powell's speech, the market increased bets on a September rate cut [13]. - **Eurozone Economy**: Economic data improved significantly. Manufacturing PMI in Germany and France rose, and the eurozone's PMI broke above the boom - bust line. The ECB's rate - cut expectation remained stable [15]. - **Chinese Economy**: Overall, it was stable. Industrial added value, consumption, investment, and other data showed different trends. The economy faced some pressure in July - August, and more policy support was expected in the second half of the year [20]. - **Exchange Rate and Policy**: The US dollar exchange rate fluctuated greatly, while the RMB remained relatively stable. With the strengthening of the RMB and the expectation of a US rate cut, there is still significant policy space in the fourth quarter, and further rate cuts and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are possible [25]. - **US Steel and Aluminum Tariffs**: The expansion of the US steel and aluminum import tariff scope had limited impact on domestic aluminum prices [27]. 4. Fundamental Aspects - **Bauxite**: Shanxi's mining rights policy had limited short - term impact on supply. In July, domestic bauxite production increased year - on - year. Guinea's rainy season affected bauxite shipments, and domestic supply may face a tight balance [28][31][35]. - **Alumina**: Although there were short - term supply disturbances, the operating capacity and output were high. Import inflows may increase, and there is a strong expectation of supply surplus and price pressure [38]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It maintained high profits, and the growth space of production was limited. Overseas, there were a few incremental capacities. The downstream processing industry's start - up rate increased slightly, and the demand in the new energy and automotive industries was growing, while the real - estate demand was still weak [42][45][54]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory was stable, and the domestic aluminum ingot inventory inflection point was approaching. The regeneration aluminum industry was facing challenges such as production reduction and inventory accumulation, and the import volume in July was at a four - year low [72][75][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the macro - environment at home and abroad will improve to some extent. The Fed may start a new round of interest - rate cuts, and the RMB is expected to strengthen in China, which may further expand policy space. However, the newly released steel industry's steady - growth plan has no obvious positive impact. After the military parade, coal mine复产 may increase coal - end pressure, and the cost support is limited. The steel market is in a stage of weakening demand while steel mill production is increasing, so the supply - demand mismatch still exerts pressure on prices. It is expected that steel prices will mainly fluctuate weakly in September, waiting for demand improvement signals, and the price may first decline and then rise [78]. - In September, the market will focus on the sustainability of high hot - metal production. Entering the golden September and silver October demand season, with a favorable domestic and foreign macro - environment and better profits for steel mills this year, iron ore prices may not enter a trending downward channel without a rapid decline in hot - metal production. However, attention should be paid to the improvement of steel demand. High iron ore prices may stimulate shipping enthusiasm, and iron ore shipping may accelerate in September. It is expected that iron ore prices may first rise and then fall, ranging from 730 to 800 [81]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Steel**: In August, steel prices rose first and then fell. The spot price was relatively stable, mainly due to the weakening cost support after the cooling of the anti - involution. In August, the off - season characteristics of steel became apparent, the supply pressure continued to accumulate, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the inventory gradually accumulated, suppressing the price [5]. - **Iron Ore**: In August, iron ore prices showed strong resilience and fluctuated upward. At the beginning of the month, they adjusted following the decline in coking coal prices. However, the actual demand for iron ore was strong, steel mills maintained high blast - furnace hot - metal production driven by profits, the supply decreased, and the inventory pressure was small. Currently, the market is trading the expectation of peak - season demand, and the price is strong [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Overseas (US)**: In July, the US non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, the lowest in 9 months, far below the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%. The ISM non - manufacturing index in July was 50.1, indicating a slowdown in service - sector activities and increased price pressure. The CPI in July was in line with expectations, but the PPI soared year - on - year, dampening the expectation of interest - rate cuts. In August, the manufacturing and service sectors showed strong demand. The Fed Chairman Powell's dovish statement led the market to fully price in two interest - rate cuts within the year. However, the relatively stable US economy may restrict the Fed's subsequent interest - rate cut process [10][16]. - **Domestic**: In July, the effect of policies to expand domestic demand continued to emerge. The CPI rose month - on - month, mainly driven by the rise in service and industrial consumer goods prices, and was flat year - on - year due to low food prices. The PPI decreased month - on - month, and the decline narrowed. Since August, the anti - involution trading has weakened, and the market has returned to a volatile pattern. In July, social financing increased year - on - year, mainly contributed by government bonds, but the subsequent support may weaken. The RMB loans decreased year - on - year, and both corporate and household loans declined. The economic indicators in July showed marginal weakness, and the real economy was still weak [19][23][28]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Terminal Demand**: - **Real Estate**: Real estate investment continued to decline, sales weakened, new construction decline narrowed slightly, and the completion area decline expanded. The housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to fall. The Shanghai government issued new real - estate policies to boost consumption [35]. - **Infrastructure**: From January to July, infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year, a slowdown from the previous period. In July, the issuance of new special bonds accelerated, and the "special new special bonds" also accelerated issuance, which will support infrastructure steel demand [38]. - **Automobile**: In July, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The new - energy vehicle market continued to grow rapidly [42]. - **Excavator and Ship**: In July, the production and sales of excavators increased, and the export of ships increased [45]. - **Steel Export**: In July, steel exports continued to grow well. The export of steel billets reached a record high. However, the US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list, and the subsequent impact on exports needs attention [46][47]. - **Supply**: In July, China's crude - steel and pig - iron production decreased year - on - year. In August, the blast - furnace operating rate of steel mills was high, and the electric - furnace operating rate continued to rise. Currently, steel mills lack the motivation to reduce production, but attention should be paid to the impact of end - of - month maintenance [51][54][56]. - **Inventory**: In August, steel supply increased while demand decreased, and steel inventory began to accumulate significantly. The inventory pressure was mainly on social inventory, showing a transfer from the production end to the circulation end [60]. - **Apparent Demand**: In August, steel demand gradually weakened. The demand for building materials continued to weaken, while the demand for plates was still supported by exports and manufacturing. In September, demand may improve slowly [63]. - **Iron Ore (Import, Shipment, and Inventory)**: In July, iron ore imports decreased. In August, iron ore shipments gradually recovered, and the arrival at ports increased slowly. Since August, hot - metal production has remained at a high level of over 2.4 million tons, supporting iron ore prices. The port inventory was relatively stable, and steel mills made small - scale restocking [66][67][69][73].