铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-12-5 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | 摘 | 报 | 告 | 要 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-12-5 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 | 报 | 告 | 摘 | 要 | P | A | R | T | 0 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

目录 焦煤焦炭周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2025-12-05 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 01 1. 据百年建筑调研，截至12月2日，样本建筑工地资金到位率为59.49%，周环比下降0.07个百分点。其中，非房建项目资金到 位率为60.59%，周环比下降0.09个百分点；房建项目资金到位率为54.02%，周环比上升0.03个百分点。本期资金到位率下降， 主要拖累项目依旧为非房建项目，降幅较上周略微收窄，房建项目资金到位率环比增加，增速收窄。 本周双焦盘面维持横盘震荡，趋势性不明显。进入12月，焦煤主力完成换月，主力合约由2601切换至2605。从焦煤基本面看，本 周国内炼焦煤供应窄幅波动，但下游观望情绪浓厚，上游企业累库幅度较前期有所放大，短时间盘面交易现实压力。目前现货市 场较为僵持，整体成交表现一般，但由于今年春节时间较晚，补库时间有望后移，近月01合约博弈空间有限。受冬储预期影响， 远月05合约存阶段性反弹机会但空间力度有限，主要受制于钢材产业链利润承压。关注寒冬天气以及12月会议带来 ...

橡胶周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2025-12-05 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 | | | 1. 2025年12月3日-12月9日期间，天然橡胶东南亚主产区降雨量较上一周期小幅增加，赤道以北高降水区域主要集中在 越南北部、泰国南部等地区，其余大部分区域降水处于偏低状态，对割胶工作影响增强；赤道以南高降水区域主要分 布在印尼中西部、马来西部等地区，其他大部分区域降雨量处于中等状态，对割胶工作影响增强。 本周天然橡胶维持震荡偏弱态势，交易重心有小幅下移，合成橡胶周二受原料端影响，出现明显上涨，但之后随着需求端 提振有限，跟随整体橡胶板块走弱。从天然橡胶基本面看，国内外的天然橡胶原料市场呈现分化走势，海外主产区随着洪 水消退，割胶与生产活动恢复，原料供应增加导致价格出现回落，海外端成本支撑偏弱；而国内产区目前逐步进入停割期， 市场供应收紧，原料价格因此表现坚挺，国内端橡胶成本端仍存支撑。但下游需求有限，仍未改变天然橡胶总库存缓慢累 积的趋势。从合成橡胶基本面看，原料丁二烯受部分货源出口成交带动，市场在周中一度迎 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ suspending the production increase plan in Q1 2026 will relieve supply - side pressure to some extent, but supply surplus will remain the main trading logic as demand enters the off - season. Geopolitical factors will cause fluctuations in the oil price. The market is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation, and it is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $55 - $65 per barrel [51] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In November, the crude oil market showed a weak and oscillating pattern under the game of long and short factors. At the beginning of the month, the suspension of the production increase plan in Q1 2026 by OPEC+ and sanctions on Russian oil companies supported the oil price. However, in the middle and late of the month, the weakening global crude oil outlook in the OPEC+ monthly report and the rising expectation of geopolitical easing suppressed the market, and the supply surplus expectation was the main trading logic [7] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **OPEC+ Production Policy**: OPEC+ will increase production in December and suspend production increase in Q1 2026. Eight countries will increase the production quota by 137,000 barrels per day in December. The suspension of production increase can relieve supply pressure in the short - term, but OPEC+ still aims to compete for market share through production increase in the long - term [11][12] - **OPEC Monthly Report**: OPEC's expectation for the global crude oil market has shifted from balance to surplus, with a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day currently compared to a previous shortage expectation of 400,000 barrels per day. The supply growth expectation of non - OPEC countries in 2025 has been raised by 110,000 barrels per day, and the demand for OPEC crude oil in 2026 has been lowered [12][15] - **Fed's Interest Rate Expectation**: Fed officials have made dovish statements, and the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December has risen to 85%. The labor market shows a "split" situation, and the Fed's latest "Beige Book" indicates that consumer spending decline is the main drag on the US economy [13] - **Geopolitical Factors**: A 28 - point peace plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict was proposed, then reduced to 19 points. Trump said the peace agreement was "very close to being reached", but Russia believes the 19 - point plan does not meet its interests. Short - term geopolitical easing expectation has risen, but there are still large differences between the two sides [14] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **OPEC Production**: In October, OPEC's crude oil production was 28.46 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ production in October was 43.02 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 73,000 barrels per day. The supply - side pressure has increased significantly as demand enters the off - season [17] - **US Crude Oil Production**: As of November 21, the US weekly EIA crude oil production was 13.814 million barrels per day, an increase of 170,000 barrels per day compared to the same period last month. Supported by technological progress and policy, US crude oil production is expected to remain stable, but the growth rate will slow down [20] - **US Oil Drilling Rigs**: As of November 21, the total number of US oil drilling rigs was 419, an increase of 2 compared to the previous statistical period and the same as the same period last month. It is expected to remain at a low level [22] - **Demand Side** - **US Manufacturing**: In October, the US ISM manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.7, while the Chicago PMI rebounded. The contraction of the manufacturing industry has restricted crude oil demand to some extent [24] - **US Refinery Utilization Rate**: As of November 21, the US refinery utilization rate was 92.3%, a month - on - month increase of 5.7 percentage points. It is expected to boost crude oil consumption seasonally [28] - **China's Manufacturing**: In October, China's manufacturing PMI decreased and remained below the boom - bust line, with weak demand and significant differentiation between supply and demand. Small and medium - sized enterprises face greater pressure [36] - **China's Refinery Utilization Rate**: As of November 20, the utilization rate of domestic major refineries was 75.69%, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points compared to the same period last month. The utilization rate of local independent refineries was 62.97%, an increase of 1.62 percentage points. Overall, domestic crude oil consumption faces short - term weakening pressure [40] - **Inventory** - **US EIA Crude Oil Inventory**: As of November 21, the US weekly EIA crude oil inventory was 2.774 million barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 498,000 barrels. With the increase in refinery utilization rate and the slowdown in production growth, the inventory is expected to decline seasonally [45] - **Cushing Crude Oil Inventory and Gasoline Inventory**: As of November 21, the EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was - 68,000 barrels, and the gasoline inventory was 2.099 million barrels. The Cushing inventory has remained stable at a low level in recent years, and the oil inventory has entered the accumulation stage [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market doubts whether the current valuation of NVIDIA has a bubble. The dovish shift of hawkish officials, mild US inflation, and rising employment risks have increased the expectation of an interest rate cut in December. The broad - monetary cycle provides upward momentum for non - ferrous metals [6]. - The domestic supply of bauxite remains tight, while the overseas supply is expected to be loose. The daily output of alumina in October decreased slightly. The domestic alumina production capacity is stable, and the price may oscillate weakly in the short term [6]. - Due to supply - side reforms and the pressure of global carbon neutrality, the capacity expansion space of electrolytic aluminum is limited. The supply shortage of primary aluminum may continue. The short - term macro environment is favorable for aluminum prices, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level [6]. - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1后市研判 (Market Outlook) - Despite NVIDIA's strong performance and outlook, market doubts about its valuation bubble persist. The shift in the stance of hawkish officials, combined with mild inflation and rising employment risks in the US, has increased the expectation of an interest - rate cut in December, which provides upward momentum for non - ferrous metals [6]. - The domestic bauxite supply is tight, but overseas supply is expected to be loose. The daily output of alumina in October decreased slightly. The domestic alumina production capacity is stable, and its price may oscillate weakly in the short term [6]. - Electrolytic aluminum's capacity expansion is restricted. The supply shortage of primary aluminum may continue. With the decline in aluminum prices, downstream procurement has increased, and social inventories have decreased. The short - term macro environment is favorable for aluminum prices, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the December dot - plot on the interest - rate cut expectation for next year [6]. - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [6]. 3.2行情回顾 (Market Review) - In November, the futures prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy showed divergent trends. The alumina futures price continued to be weak, hitting a low of 2,701 yuan/ton. The futures prices of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy rose first and then fell, reaching highs of 22,160 yuan/ton and 21,390 yuan/ton respectively [8][9]. 3.3宏观面 (Macroeconomic Situation) - **US Situation**: The US economic data is mixed. The ISM manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for eight consecutive months, while the ISM services PMI reached an eight - month high. The labor market shows signs of slowdown, and inflation has picked up. The shift in the stance of hawkish officials has increased the expectation of an interest - rate cut in December to 75%. The long - term market pricing implies more than three interest - rate cuts within a year, which is positive for copper prices [14]. - **China Situation**: In October, China's national economy was generally stable. The manufacturing PMI declined, while the non - manufacturing PMI increased slightly. The government has introduced policies to promote "two - major" construction and consumption. Six departments have jointly issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027 [16][20]. 3.4基本面 (Fundamentals) - **Supply Side** - **Bauxite**: In October, the domestic bauxite output decreased. The supply in Henan has recovered, but that in Shanxi has not fully recovered, and the domestic supply remains tight. China's bauxite imports in October decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. As the rainy season in Guinea ends, the imported bauxite supply is expected to increase [22][25]. - **Alumina**: In October, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina increased year - on - year, but the daily output decreased slightly. The operating capacity is still at a high level, but the weekly operating rate decreased slightly. The production profit of some enterprises has turned negative, and the expectation of production cuts is rising. The alumina price is expected to oscillate at a low level [29]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October, China's electrolytic aluminum output increased slightly year - on - year. The operating capacity remains stable at a high level, but the overall increase is limited due to energy - consumption indicators and capacity - replacement policies. The winter environmental protection restrictions may have a limited impact on production. Overseas, the release of electrolytic aluminum capacity is lower than expected due to various factors [30][34]. - **Demand Side** - **Aluminum Processing Enterprises**: High aluminum prices have put pressure on the开工 rate of aluminum processing enterprises. The开工 rate of aluminum profiles is 62.0%, with different trends in various sub - sectors [38]. - **Real Estate Market**: The Chinese real estate market is still in the adjustment period, which suppresses the demand for aluminum in the real estate sector [43]. - **New Energy Sector**: The new energy sector maintains high prosperity. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to grow, and the demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic and wind - power industries is strong [47]. - **Home Appliance Market**: The home appliance market is under pressure. The output of most home appliances decreased in October, and the sales are expected to remain under pressure in the future [50]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Inventories**: The LME aluminum inventory has increased significantly compared with the end of October and may continue to decline. The SHFE aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level [54]. - **Social Inventories**: As of November 24, the 5 - location electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased compared with the previous week. The low social inventory provides support for aluminum prices [57]. - **Other Aspects** - **Copper - Aluminum Ratio**: The copper - aluminum ratio has exceeded 4.0, which is beneficial for aluminum to replace copper [59]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: The开工 rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry remained stable in November. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the import of un - wrought aluminum alloy decreased significantly in October [62][65]. - **Aluminum Alloy Trade**: In October, the import of un - wrought aluminum alloy decreased significantly, while the export increased. The long - term price inversion has led to a significant reduction in imports [65].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to maintain the operation strategy of buying on dips. The upward drive for copper prices comes from the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in December and the long - term broad - money cycle, while the supply - side problems such as low copper concentrate processing fees and production disruptions, and the demand from the new energy sector support the copper price. However, factors like high inventory, the substitution of aluminum for copper, and weak demand in the real estate and home appliance sectors may limit the upside space [6][7]. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 1.后市研判 (Outlook for the Market) - In December, copper prices will be in a high - level oscillation. The operation strategy of buying on dips should be maintained. The increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in December and the long - term broad - money cycle provide upward drive. On the supply side, problems such as the decline in global copper ore grade, slow new project commissioning, and insufficient capital expenditure are difficult to solve in the short term, and production disruptions in major producing areas lead to lower - than - expected annual production growth. The demand from the automotive and new energy sectors provides support, but high inventory and the substitution of aluminum for copper may limit the upside [6][7]. 2.行情回顾 (Market Review) - In November, copper prices showed a high - level oscillation trend. The implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the US government shutdown event weakened the macro - driving force [9][10]. 3.宏观面 (Macroeconomic Aspects) - **US Situation**: The US manufacturing PMI has contracted for eight consecutive months, and the overall labor demand is slowing down. However, the service PMI has reached an eight - month high. Although the performance and outlook of NVIDIA are excellent, the market doubts about its valuation bubble. The dovish shift of the previous hawkish officials has increased the expectation of interest rate cuts in December to 75%, and the market has priced in more than three interest rate cuts within a year, which provides upward drive for copper prices [16]. - **China Situation**: In October, China's manufacturing PMI declined, and the non - manufacturing PMI rose slightly. The overall national economy was running smoothly, and new growth drivers continued to expand. The government has introduced policies to promote consumption, and the market is concerned about the introduction of more growth - stabilizing policies [18][21]. 4.基本面 (Fundamental Aspects) - **Supply Side** - **Copper Ore Import**: In October 2025, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2,451,487.80 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.08%. The supply from major suppliers increased, but that from other sources decreased, and the tight supply of copper concentrate remained difficult to ease [22]. - **Processing Fees**: As of the week of November 21, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 41.81 US dollars per dry ton, a decrease of 0.06 US dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The tight copper concentrate supply situation led to low processing fees and high pressure on the year - end negotiations between domestic smelters and overseas miners [25]. - **Inventory**: Affected by the 232 tariff policy, the US has absorbed a large amount of refined copper globally. Although the siphon effect is gradually weakening, South American copper still prefers to be exported to the US. The total global copper inventory exceeds 800,000 tons, remaining above the central level [28]. - **Production**: In October 2025, China's refined copper production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. Due to smelter overhauls, the production decreased month - on - month, and the impact will be more evident in December [36]. - **Imports and Exports**: In October, China's refined copper imports were 323,144.72 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.32%. Exports were 65,945 tons, a year - on - year increase of more than five times and a month - on - month increase of nearly 1.5 times [45]. - **Waste Copper**: In October, China's waste copper imports were 196,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. However, the low domestic waste copper utilization rate limited the demand for recycled copper raw materials [41]. - **Demand Side** - **Copper - Aluminum Ratio**: The copper - aluminum ratio has exceeded 4.0, which is conducive to the substitution of aluminum for copper and suppresses copper consumption [31]. - **Downstream Products**: In October, the output of copper strips, copper rods, and other products decreased month - on - month due to high copper prices [48][52]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market is still in the adjustment period, and the demand for copper in the real estate sector is suppressed [56]. - **New Energy**: In October 2025, China's new energy vehicle production was 1.71 million, a year - on - year increase of 19.3%. The new energy power generation sector maintained a high - growth trend, providing marginal demand for copper [61]. - **Home Appliances**: In October 2025, the production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased year - on - year. Although there was some subsidy release in November - December, the home appliance market was still under pressure [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market lacks upward drivers and is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend. The improvement of asphalt fundamentals is poorly anticipated, with the demand side entering a seasonal contraction phase and facing further downward pressure. The supply side has insufficient upward drivers, and the expectations of supply surplus and geopolitical easing suppress the market. The oil price is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the repeated changes in geopolitics. It is recommended to focus on the range of 2900 - 3150 yuan/ton for the BU2602 contract [6][56]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In November, asphalt showed a unilateral downward trend under the combined influence of the cost side and fundamentals. Demand entered a seasonal contraction phase, some refineries sold spot forward contracts at low prices, and market sentiment was generally weak. The OPEC+ production increase and the rising expectation of geopolitical easing pressured oil prices, weakening cost - side support and intensifying the downward pressure on the market. The market currently lacks upward drivers, and with the seasonal decline in demand, fundamentals are difficult to improve effectively. The cost - side support is limited, and the market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend [6]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **OPEC+ Production Policy**: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause production increase in the first quarter of 2026. This move is expected to relieve supply pressure in the short term but has limited long - term impact. OPEC's latest monthly report shows that the global crude oil market is expected to shift from balance to surplus, with a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the supply growth forecast of non - OPEC countries in 2025 has been raised by 110,000 barrels per day. The demand for OPEC's crude oil in 2026 has been lowered, indicating a pessimistic outlook on the demand side [9][10][13]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Policy**: Fed officials have made dovish statements, and the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December has risen to 85%. The U.S. labor market shows a "split" situation, with employment exceeding expectations but the unemployment rate reaching a four - year high. The latest Fed "Beige Book" shows that the decline in consumer spending is the main drag on the U.S. economy, and the government "shutdown" has affected consumer decisions [11]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: The U.S. media disclosed a 28 - point peace plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which was later reduced to 19 points after discussions. Although the short - term expectation of geopolitical easing has increased, there are still significant differences between the two sides on key issues, and the oil price may fluctuate due to geopolitical changes [12]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: In October, China's asphalt production was 2.12 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 500,000 tons. In November, the domestic refinery operating rate decreased month - on - month, mainly due to seasonal maintenance and the entry of terminal consumption into the off - season. The weekly data shows that the operating rate of asphalt sample enterprises is at a low level in recent years and is expected to decline further, alleviating supply pressure [15][22]. - **Demand Side**: In November, China's asphalt shipments decreased month - on - month. Road construction demand may further shrink, and winter storage demand remains highly uncertain. The utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity decreased seasonally, and with the end of the demand peak season, it faces downward pressure [25][27]. - **Import and Export**: In October, asphalt imports were 391,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50,000 tons, and the import average price remained stable. Exports were 52,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27,700 tons, and the export average price decreased slightly [32][38]. - **Inventory**: In November, the inventory of domestic sample enterprises decreased, but the decline rate was slower than in previous years. The social inventory of asphalt also decreased, but the decline rate slowed down, indicating weakening downstream demand [44][49]. - **Price Difference**: In November, the asphalt cracking spread declined, and the diluted profit of asphalt processing remained at a low level within the year. As asphalt is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend, the cracking spread may face further downward pressure [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is influenced by a combination of factors including macro - economic conditions, supply and demand dynamics, and cost factors. The overall trend of aluminum prices may be affected by the balance of these factors, with potential for high - level fluctuations and support from low - level inventories. [5][28] - The 12 - month interest rate cut expectation has increased, and the long - term broad - money cycle may drive copper and potentially aluminum prices upward. Domestic economic stability is expected, and more growth - stabilizing policies are awaited. [11][14][16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1后市研判 (Outlook) - Pay attention to the changes in macro sentiment and the position of aluminum prices. [5][6] 3.2行情回顾 (Market Review) - In November, the futures prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy showed different trends. Alumina futures prices continued to be weak, dropping to a minimum of 2,701 yuan/ton. Electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy futures prices first rose and then fell, reaching a maximum of 22,160 yuan/ton and 21,390 yuan/ton respectively. [7][8] 3.3宏观面 (Macroeconomic Situation) 3.3.1 International Situation - The US economic data shows a complex situation. The ISM manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for eight consecutive months in October, while the ISM services PMI reached an eight - month high. The labor market shows signs of slowdown, and inflation has picked up. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut in December has increased to 75%. [14] 3.3.2 Domestic Situation - The domestic economy is running smoothly, with a continued supply - tight pattern in the aluminum market. The government is expected to introduce more growth - stabilizing policies. [16][18] 3.4基本面 (Fundamentals) 3.4.1 Supply Side - **Aluminum Bauxite**: In October, China's domestic aluminum bauxite production decreased, with a continuous decline for three months. Although the supply pressure in Henan has eased, the supply - tight pattern in the country continues. Overseas, the supply of imported aluminum bauxite is expected to increase in November. [19][22] - **Alumina**: In October, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased, but the daily average production decreased slightly. The overall operating capacity is still at a high level, but the profit has been compressed, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. [27] - **Primary Aluminum (Electrolytic Aluminum)**: In October, China's primary aluminum production increased slightly year - on - year. The operating capacity remained high and stable, but the increase was limited due to energy consumption indicators and capacity replacement policies. Overseas capacity expansion has fallen short of expectations. [28][31] 3.4.2 Demand Side - **Aluminum Processing Enterprises**: High aluminum prices have put pressure on the start - up of aluminum processing enterprises. The overall start - up rate is 62.0%, with different trends in different product segments. [34] - **Real Estate Market**: The Chinese real estate market is still in the adjustment period, which has suppressed the demand for aluminum in the real estate sector. [36][37] - **New Energy Sector**: The new energy sector continues to be highly prosperous. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased significantly, and the new energy power generation industry (photovoltaic and wind power) has also maintained high growth, driving the demand for aluminum. [39][41] - **Home Appliance Market**: The home appliance market is under pressure, with the output of most home appliances showing a downward trend in October. [42][43] 3.4.3 Inventory - **Exchange Inventories**: The LME aluminum inventory has increased significantly, and the SHFE aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level. [46] - **Social Inventories**: As of November 24, the five - location electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 61.2 tons, which continued to be at a low level and supported the aluminum price. [49] 3.4.4 Other Factors - **Copper - Aluminum Ratio**: The copper - aluminum ratio has exceeded 4.0, which is beneficial for aluminum to replace copper, and the aluminum price may have an upward trend. [51] - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: In November, the start - up rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry remained stable. In October, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased significantly, while the export increased. The price of recycled aluminum alloy in the spot market has fallen, and the social inventory has increased slightly. [54][55][58]

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Monthly Report (November 2025) - Report Date: 2025 - 11 - 28 - Report Institution: AVIC Futures - Analyst: Fan Ling - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F0272984 - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0011970 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November, copper prices showed a high - level volatile trend. The macro - driving force weakened due to the Fed's interest rate cut and the US government shutdown. In December, the expectation of an interest rate cut increased, and the long - term broad - money cycle would drive copper prices upward. However, the copper market was affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and substitution, with both upward and downward pressures [7][8][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In November, copper prices generally showed a high - level volatile trend. The Fed's interest rate cut in November and the US government shutdown event caused market concerns about the US economic outlook, weakening the macro - driving force [7][8]. 3.2 Macro - aspect - **US Economic Data**: The US economic data was mixed. The ISM manufacturing PMI continued to contract, the ADP employment data was inconsistent, the unemployment rate rose, the PPI increased, retail sales were lower than expected, and the private - sector employment loss intensified. Although Nvidia's performance was good, the market was skeptical about the current valuation bubble. The hawkish officials' stance shifted, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in December rose to 75%. In the long - term, the market priced in more than three interest rate cuts within a year, and the broad - money cycle would drive copper prices upward [13]. - **Domestic Economy**: The domestic national economy was stable, and attention should be paid to the introduction of more growth - stabilizing policies [15]. 3.3 Fundamental - aspect - **Supply Side** - **Copper Ore Import**: In October 2025, China's copper ore concentrate imports were 2,451,487.80 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.08%. The supply from major countries increased, but that from other countries decreased. The domestic copper concentrate spot processing fee was hovering at a low level, and the tight supply situation of copper ore was still difficult to ease [17]. - **Copper Production**: In October 2025, China's refined copper production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. Due to some smelters' maintenance and the difficulty in purchasing anode copper, the production decreased month - on - month. In November, some smelter maintenance was postponed, and the impact would be more reflected in December. Some enterprises' long - term maintenance affected production in November and December. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association suggested setting an upper limit on the smelting capacity of key metals [30]. - **Scrap Copper Import**: In October, China's scrap copper imports were 196,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. From January to October, the cumulative imports were 1.8956 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.99%. The main import sources were Japan, Thailand, South Korea, and Malaysia. However, the domestic recycled copper raw material demand was limited by the low operating rate [34]. - **Refined Copper Import and Export**: In October, China's refined copper imports were 323,144.72 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.32%. The exports were 65,945 tons, a year - on - year increase of more than five times and a month - on - month increase of nearly 1.5 times. The decrease in imports was due to the decline in supply from major countries, the expansion of the LME - COMEX arbitrage spread, and the deterioration of the import parity [37]. - **Demand Side** - **Copper Product Output**: In October, the output of copper strips decreased by 3.62% month - on - month to 189,100 tons, lower than the same period last year. The output of refined copper rods decreased by 10.99% month - on - month to 756,000 tons, affected by high copper prices [39][42]. - **End - use Industries** - **Real Estate**: From January to October, the national real estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, new - built commercial housing sales area decreased by 6.8%, and sales volume decreased by 9.6%. The real estate market was in an adjustment period, suppressing copper demand in the real - estate field [45]. - **New Energy**: In October, China's new - energy vehicle production was 1.71 million, a year - on - year increase of 19.3%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 12.672 million, a year - on - year increase of 28.1%. The new - energy power generation showed a differentiated trend. Photovoltaic had a short - term adjustment, with a 38% year - on - year decrease in new - installed capacity in October but a 39% year - on - year increase in cumulative new - installed capacity from January to October. Wind power continued to be booming, with a 34% year - on - year increase in new - installed capacity in October and a 53% year - on - year increase in cumulative new - installed capacity from January to October [49]. - **Home Appliances**: In October, the output of air - conditioners decreased by 13.5% year - on - year, refrigerators decreased by 6.0%, washing machines decreased by 2.0%, and color TVs increased by 1.7%. The home - appliance market was under pressure, and the follow - up sales were expected to remain under pressure [51]. - **Inventory** - The LME copper inventory was 156,575 tons, the New York copper inventory was 415,880 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory was 110,603 tons in the week of November 21. The total inventory exceeded 800,000 tons, remaining above the central level. The US's siphoning effect on global refined copper gradually weakened, but South American refined copper would still be preferentially exported to the US [23]. - **Substitution** - The copper - to - aluminum ratio exceeded the 4.0 mark in October. Historically, when the copper - to - aluminum ratio exceeded the "mean + one - standard - deviation", the aluminum price tended to be stronger than the copper price. The strengthening of the copper - to - aluminum ratio was conducive to the substitution of copper by aluminum, suppressing copper consumption [26].