沥青周度报告 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 05 后市研判 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2026-1-23 报告PA摘RT要 01 （1）IEA月报将2026年全球石油供应增长预期从240万桶/日上调至250万桶/日。 重点数据 （1）截止1月21日，国内沥青样本企业开工率26.8%，较上一统计周期下降0.4个百分点。 （2）截止1月23日，国内沥青周度产量47.6万吨，环比上周减少1.2万吨。 主要观点 在基本面与成本端的共同作用下，本周沥青盘面整体呈现震荡偏强格局。当前沥青基本面变化有限，但原料供应 偏紧及后续稀释沥青进口受限的预期改善供应端前景。尽管市场已对稀释沥青进口收紧有所定价，但其实际进口仍存 在较大不确定性。随着美国进一步介入委内瑞拉原油领域，当前委油主要流向欧美市场，即便后续国内地炼恢复进口， 此前的高贴水格局也可能难以维持，稀释沥青的成本优势或将削弱，从而推升行业整体成本，抑制地炼开工积极性。 与此同时，油价偏强运行从成本端提供支撑。当前中东地缘风险虽短暂缓和但并未消除，美国正加速在该区域集结军 事力 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - This week, the crude oil market lacks continuous driving factors. Geopolitical uncertainty makes the market direction unclear, and the market shows a wide - range shock. Trump's hint of non - military intervention in Iran cools down geopolitical risks and causes the market to decline. However, the US military build - up in the Middle East still poses a risk of rising geopolitical tensions, and market concerns support prices. In the short term, geopolitics will dominate oil price trends. OPEC+ suspends the Q1 production increase plan, and global crude oil production decreases month - on - month, tightening the supply side and supporting the market. But the long - term supply surplus pattern remains, suppressing the oil price rebound. Although the geopolitical tension has temporarily eased, the risk remains, and the market's short - term focus will be on geopolitical developments. Due to high uncertainty, market volatility may increase, and it is recommended to pay continuous attention to geopolitical trends. The trading strategy is to wait and see first [8][46] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Report Summary - IEA raises the 2026 global oil supply growth forecast from 2.4 million barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. India's Reliance Industries will resume receiving Russian oil in February and March after a one - month suspension. Kazakhstan's Kashagan oilfield diverts crude oil to the domestic market for the first time due to CPC pipeline bottlenecks [7] - Key data: US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending January 16th is 3.602 million barrels (expected 1.131 million barrels, previous 3.391 million barrels); EIA Cushing crude oil inventory in Oklahoma is 1.478 million barrels (previous 0.745 million barrels); EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory is 0.806 million barrels (previous 0.214 million barrels) [7] Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: Geopolitical disturbances, Kazakhstan - related factors [10] - Bearish factors: Venezuela's hand - over of crude oil to the US, supply surplus expectations [10] Macro Analysis - Geopolitical risks have temporarily declined but not disappeared. The Middle East situation is tense again as the US is sending more troops to the Middle East. Trump says he won't impose tariffs on Europe. Venezuela has handed over 50 million barrels of crude oil to the US [11] - IEA raises global supply and demand growth forecasts. It raises the 2026 global oil supply growth forecast to 2.5 million barrels per day, the oil demand growth forecast to 0.93 million barrels per day, and the non - OPEC+ supply growth forecast to 1.3 million barrels per day. It expects a supply surplus in Q1 2026. Russia's crude oil production increased from 9 million barrels per day in November to 9.56 million barrels per day in December [12] Supply - demand Analysis Supply - US crude oil production decreased by 0.021 million barrels to 13.732 million barrels per day for the week ending January 16th. With downstream demand entering the off - season, production may decline further [13] - US oil drilling rig count increased slightly to 410 (previous 409). It is expected to remain at a low level due to capital expenditure cuts and low - oil - price impacts [16] Demand - US refinery utilization rate was 93.3% for the week ending January 16th, down week - on - week. US refineries are entering the maintenance season, and the utilization rate will face downward pressure in Q1 [18] - In December, the refinery utilization rate of 16 European countries was 85.78%, up 2.02 percentage points month - on - month. It will face seasonal downward pressure [21] - As of January 22nd, China's major refinery utilization rate was 78.78%, up 1.54 percentage points, and is expected to rise. The local refinery utilization rate was 60.75%, down 0.26 percentage points week - on - week but up 1.23 percentage points year - on - year. Major refineries will see a seasonal rise, while local refineries will decline seasonally before the Spring Festival [26] Profit - As of January 23rd, the comprehensive refining profit of China's major refineries was 761.48 yuan/ton, down 0.86 yuan/ton. The comprehensive refining profit of local refineries was 254.37 yuan/ton, down 24.89 yuan/ton [31] Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending January 16th was 3.602 million barrels, higher than expected. EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 0.806 million barrels. Due to refinery maintenance, inventory may increase [36] - US Cushing crude oil inventory was 1.478 million barrels for the week ending January 16th, up from the previous week. EIA gasoline inventory was 256.99 million barrels, up 5.977 million barrels [41] Crack Spread - As of January 21st, the crack spread of Louisiana Light Sweet crude oil in the US Gulf was $25.37/barrel, up week - on - week, supported by lower refinery utilization rates and downstream demand recovery [42] Market Outlook and Judgment - Similar to the core view, the market lacks continuous drivers, and geopolitics will dominate short - term oil prices. Supply is tightening in the short - term but the long - term surplus remains. Geopolitical risks remain, and market volatility may increase [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of Shanghai aluminum may experience short - term high - level fluctuations and adjustments [53]. - The price of aluminum alloy may follow the price of electrolytic aluminum and undergo high - level shock adjustments [51]. - The alumina market is expected to continue to have an oversupply situation [21]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Report Summary - The report analyzes the aluminum industry from multiple aspects, including macroeconomic data, supply and demand of raw materials, production and sales of products, and inventory changes. It also provides a forecast for the future price trend of aluminum [53][51]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to be accumulated, but the production operation can be maintained, and the end - user side hopes to maintain resilience [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: The US dollar index is high, and the sentiment of the non - ferrous metal market has turned weak with macro data showing a rebound [7]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Macroeconomic Data**: In the US in December 2025, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 60,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. The CPI rose by 2.7% year - on - year. In China in December 2025, the CPI rose by 0.8% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year with the decline narrowing [9][14]. - **Raw Material Supply**: From January to November 2025, China's bauxite cumulative production reached 55.2135 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. In November, imports reached 15.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.3%. In 2025, the new domestic alumina production capacity was 9.8 million tons, and it is expected to reach 8.6 million tons in 2026 [16][19][22]. - **Production and Sales of Products**: In December 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.9% year - on - year and 4.0% month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio dropped by 0.8 percentage points month - on - month. The domestic downstream aluminum processing enterprises' average opening rate increased by 0.2 percentage points month - on - month to 60.2%. In December 2025, the domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 640,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41,800 tons [27][29][43]. - **Inventory Situation**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly to 490,000 tons. The SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 10.79% to 143,828 tons in the week of January 9. As of January 15, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 749,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons compared to Monday. As of January 16, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 69,300 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons compared to last week, and the in - plant inventory was 60,200 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons compared to last week [36][39][48]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The price of Shanghai aluminum may experience short - term high - level fluctuations and adjustments. The price of aluminum alloy may follow the price of electrolytic aluminum and undergo high - level shock adjustments [53][51].

Report Summary 1. Market Focus - The article "Speech at the Central Urban Work Conference" by General Secretary Xi Jinping was published in the "Qiushi" Journal, emphasizing urban renewal [6]. - The central bank introduced a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, including interest rate cuts, increasing loan quotas, and adjusting mortgage down - payment ratios [6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the 18th symposium for manufacturing enterprises, stressing participation in industry rule - making and self - discipline [6]. - In December 2025, the US CPI and core CPI were stable year - on - year, and the PPI increased [6]. 2. Key Data - In early January 2026, key steel enterprises produced 1997 million tons of crude steel, with a daily average of 199.7 million tons, a 21.6% increase. Steel inventories reached 1504 million tons, a 6.4% increase [6]. - In 2025, China's foreign trade reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a 3.8% increase, with exports at 26.99 trillion yuan, a 6.1% increase [6]. 3. Main Views - Steel prices oscillated at the upper edge of the price range. Macro sentiment was positive, but the impact on the black market was limited. The supply - demand pattern was healthy but lacked upward momentum. The upside space for steel prices was limited [6][58]. - Iron ore prices oscillated at a high level, supported by the macro environment and steel mill restocking. The downward driving force was weak, and it was expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [6][60]. Multi - empty Focus 1. Multi - empty Factors Analysis (Rebar) - **Bullish factors**: Overseas and domestic loose liquidity, expected credit boom, strong steel exports, and cost support [9]. - **Bearish factors**: Off - season demand, increased steel production, and uncertain impact of export licenses [9]. 2. Multi - empty Factors Analysis (Iron Ore) - **Bullish factors**: Overseas and domestic loose liquidity, expected credit boom, slow steel production recovery, low steel mill inventories, and restocking demand [10]. - **Bearish factors**: Off - season steel demand, increased shipments, and high port inventories [10]. Data Analysis 1. Macro - **US employment and inflation**: In December 2025, the US labor market was in a weak balance, and inflation was mild. The market was worried about inflation in 2026, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was unclear [11][12]. - **China's social financing and credit**: In December 2025, China's new social financing decreased year - on - year, and the growth rate of the stock slowed. The market expected a credit boom in 2026, but the growth rate might slow in the first half of the year [14][15]. - **Policy**: The central bank introduced a series of policies to support high - quality economic development, with an emphasis on structural loosening. The direct impact on asset prices was limited, and the key was the implementation [17][18]. 2. Terminal - **Automobile industry**: In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached a record high. New energy vehicles became the dominant force. In 2026, the total sales were expected to reach 3475 million vehicles, a 1% increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy [21]. - **Engineering machinery industry**: In 2025, the engineering machinery industry recovered significantly, with excavator sales reaching a five - year high. China's shipbuilding industry maintained growth [25]. - **Exports**: In 2025, China's exports showed good resilience. Steel exports reached a record high, but there might be a decline in January 2026 [26][27]. 3. (Rebar) Spot - The spot price was stable, and the basis continued to narrow [29]. 4. Profit - The steel mill profitability rate increased by 2.17 percentage points to 39.83%. Steel mill losses decreased [33]. 5. Production - The blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 78.84%, and the electric furnace operating rate remained unchanged. Steel production continued to rise but at a mild pace [34][36]. 6. Apparent Demand - The apparent demand for steel improved but still showed off - season characteristics [38]. 7. Inventory - Rebar inventory decreased slightly, and hot - rolled coil inventory was at a high level. Different regions had different winter - storage policies [42]. 8. (Iron Ore) Spot - The spot price declined, and the basis fluctuated narrowly [43]. 9. Import and Shipment - In December 2025, China's iron ore imports increased. At the beginning of 2026, iron ore shipments decreased [47]. 10. Arrival - From January 5th to 11th, 2026, the arrival of iron ore at Chinese ports increased [48]. 11. Hot Metal Production - The daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.49 million tons [50]. 12. Port Inventory - The port inventory of imported iron ore increased, and the daily dredging volume decreased [54]. 13. Steel Mill Consumption and Inventory - The daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills decreased, and the inventory increased [56]. Market Outlook 1. Steel - Steel prices will continue to operate within a range, with limited upward space. Attention should be paid to the impact of export licenses and inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival [58]. 2. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, with limited downward space [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices continued to rebound driven by geopolitical risks, but the asphalt futures market did not follow the oil price increase, showing a wide - range oscillatory trend. The asphalt is currently at a significant premium relative to crude oil, and the short - term price increase cannot drive the futures market to rise continuously. Also, the increase in spot prices has not improved downstream trading, and the fundamentals lack support [8]. - The cost increase caused by tight raw materials is expected to continue. The change in Venezuela's crude oil export model may end the previous large - discount situation, which will increase the cost pressure on some local refineries, restrict the industry's operating rate, and support the asphalt futures market from the supply side [8][54]. - The driving factor in the crude oil market has shifted to geopolitics. The uncertainty of US President Trump's attitude towards military action against Iran intensifies market volatility. Overall, the asphalt futures market is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation. If oil prices experience a significant correction, the asphalt price may test the previous low [8][54]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Key Data**: As of January 14, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 27.2%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous statistical period. As of January 16, the weekly asphalt production in China was 488,000 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons from the previous week. The factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 622,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons from the previous week. The social inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 815,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous week [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to focus on the range of 3,100 - 3,250 yuan/ton for the BU2603 contract [9]. 3.2 Multi - Air Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Raw material disturbances and geopolitical disturbances [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: Weakening demand [13]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Geopolitical Risks**: The US has threatened to strike Iranian military targets, imposed a 25% tariff on Iran's trading partners, and there are uncertainties about potential military actions. Geopolitical factors will continue to affect oil prices, and the actual impact on oil prices depends on whether the geopolitical conflict causes a substantial loss in crude oil supply, which is expected to increase market volatility [14]. - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: EIA has raised the average price forecast for Brent and WTI crude oils in 2026 and 2027, and expects US crude oil production to decline. OPEC maintains the global crude oil demand growth forecast, and OPEC + crude oil production decreased month - on - month in December. Russia's crude oil production decreased slightly but remained stable [15]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: As of January 16, the weekly asphalt production in China was 488,000 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons from the previous week. The operating rate of asphalt sample enterprises was 27.2% as of January 14, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous statistical period. The refinery operating rate is in a seasonal decline trend, and the supply pressure is expected to decrease [16][23]. - **Demand**: As of January 16, the weekly asphalt shipment volume in China was 317,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous statistical period but a year - on - year decrease of 100,000 tons. The demand is expected to remain weak. The utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity increased slightly but is expected to remain low in the first quarter [26][29]. - **Inventory**: As of January 16, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 622,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons from the previous week. The social inventory was 815,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous week, and it has been accumulating for four consecutive weeks [36][43]. - **Spread**: As of January 16, the weekly profit from processing diluted asphalt in China was 148 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of January 15, the domestic asphalt basis was 33 yuan/ton. As of January 14, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 51.92, and the asphalt cracking spread decreased significantly month - on - month [52]. 3.5 Future Outlook - The asphalt futures market is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation. If oil prices experience a significant correction, the asphalt price may test the previous low. It is recommended to focus on the range of 3,100 - 3,250 yuan/ton for the BU2603 contract [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report -受地缘政治扰动，本周原油价格先涨后跌，整体呈震荡偏强走势。地缘政治主导短期油价走势，虽地缘风险短暂下降但未消除，不确定性大，盘面波动将加大。当前市场供应过剩，若供应端无实质性损失，盘面将快速回落。建议先观望 [9][44] 3. Summary by Directory Report Summary - 美国威胁对伊朗采取军事行动，开始出售委内瑞拉原油，且美国原油产量环比下降 [7][8] - 美国至1月9日当周EIA原油库存339.1万桶，预期 - 170.2万桶，前值 - 383.2万桶；EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存74.5万桶，前值72.8万桶；EIA战略石油储备库存21.4万桶，前值24.5万桶 [8] Multi - Empty Focus - 多方因素为地缘政治扰动；空方因素为委内瑞拉向美国移交原油和供应过剩预期 [11] Macro Analysis - 地缘政治对油价扰动延续，美国加速向中东部署军事力量，特朗普保留所有选项，实际影响取决于是否造成原油供应实质性损失，预计盘面波动加剧 [12] - EIA上调美、布两油今年均价预期，预计美国原油产量将下降，2026年降幅不足1%，2027年降幅为2% [13] - OPEC维持全球原油需求增长预期，OPEC + 12月原油总产量环比减少23.8万桶/日至4283万桶/日 [13] - 俄罗斯2025年原油日产量同比下降约0.7%至912.9万桶，产量基本稳定 [13] Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - 截至1月9日当周美国国内原油产量环比减少5.8万桶至1375.3万桶/日，预计随需求淡季来临仍有下降压力 [14] - 截至1月9日当周美国国内原油钻井总数409口，前值412口，整体维持低位，预计年内仍将维持低位 [16] Demand - 美国至1月9日当周炼油厂开工率为95.3%，环比回升0.6个百分点，一季度面临季节性下降压力 [18] - 12月欧洲16国炼厂开工率为85.78%，环比回升2.02个百分点，面临季节性下降压力 [22] - 截至1月15日，国内主营炼厂开工率为77.24%，较上一统计周期回升0.26个百分点，有望回升；地炼开工率为61.01%，较上一统计周期下降0.32个百分点，春节前有望保持高位，节后预计下降 [27] Profit - 截至1月16日，国内主营炼厂综合炼油利润762.34元/吨，较上一统计周期回升84.88元/吨；地炼综合炼油利润279.26元/吨，较上一统计周期下降89.53元/吨 [31] Inventory - 美国至1月9日当周EIA原油库存339.1万桶，预期 - 170.2万桶，前值 - 383.2万桶；EIA战略石油储备库存21.4万桶，前值24.5万桶，炼厂检修或致库存累库 [36] - 美国至1月9日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存74.5万桶，前值72.8万桶；EIA汽油库存为251.01百万桶，较上一统计周期增加898万桶 [40] Crack Spread - 截至1月14日美国海湾路易斯安那低硫原油裂解价差为21.18美元/桶，本周环比下降，因炼厂开工率高且下游需求淡季，汽油库存累库 [41] Future Market Judgment - 地缘政治主导短期油价走势，不确定性大，盘面波动将加大，若供应端无实质性损失，盘面将快速回落 [44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures market maintained a volatile trend, with both trading volume and open interest decreasing. The market sentiment in the stock and commodity markets cooled down this week, and the emotional premium on the futures market gradually disappeared. The coking coal supply showed a slight rebound after the festival, and the inventory depletion improved as downstream enterprises started to replenish stocks. The coke production capacity utilization rate of steel mills and independent coke enterprises remained weak and stable. The pig iron production decreased this week, hindering the increase in coke consumption. The supply - demand situation was "double - weak". Due to the stop - falling and rebound of coking coal prices, the loss of coke enterprises' per - ton profit intensified, and some coke enterprises were more willing to raise prices. In general, without the resonance of macro and micro factors, the coking coal market will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and the coke market will follow the cost side of coking coal with weaker elasticity [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary (PART 01) - The double - coking futures market fluctuated this week, and the open interest and trading volume decreased. The market sentiment in the stock and commodity markets cooled down, and the emotional premium on the futures market gradually disappeared. The coking coal supply increased slightly after the festival, and the inventory depletion improved as the downstream replenished stocks. The coke production capacity utilization rate of steel mills and independent coke enterprises remained weak and stable. The pig iron production decreased, hindering the increase in coke consumption. The supply - demand situation was "double - weak". The loss of coke enterprises' per - ton profit intensified, and some coke enterprises were more willing to raise prices. After the market sentiment stabilizes, attention should be paid to the increase in supply and the sustainability of downstream winter stockpiling. In the short term, the market will mainly fluctuate. The coke market will follow the cost side of coking coal with weaker elasticity [6] 3.2 Market Focus - **Industry News**: On January 10, Pakistan launched an anti - dumping sunset review investigation on cold - rolled steel sheets from China. In 2025, China's steel exports reached 11,901,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a symposium on manufacturing enterprises. As of January 13, the sample construction site capital availability rate was 59.57%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04%, mainly driven by housing construction projects [7] - **Fundamental Situation and Main Views**: After the festival, the coking coal supply increased slightly, and the inventory depletion improved. Independent coke enterprises and steel mills continued to replenish coking coal stocks. The overall coke production capacity utilization rate remained weak and stable. The pig iron production decreased, hindering the increase in coke consumption. The loss of coke enterprises' per - ton profit intensified, and the willingness to raise prices increased [7] 3.3 Multi - Empty Focus (PART 02) - **Bullish Factors**: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream winter stockpiling has started one after another. Cold weather supports coal prices. Macroeconomic policies are positive [10] - **Bearish Factors**: The increase in pig iron production is under pressure, limiting coke demand. The coking coal supply increased slightly after the festival. Market sentiment has cooled down [10] 3.4 Data Analysis (PART 03) - **Coking Coal Supply**: As of the week of January 16, the开工 rate of 523 sample mines was 88.47%, a week - on - week increase of 3.13%, and the daily average output increased by 342,000 tons to 76,850 tons. The 开工 rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 36.79%, a week - on - week increase of 1.37%, and the daily average output increased by 123,000 tons to 27,350 tons. As of the week of January 10, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased after the festival. Overall, the coking coal supply increased slightly after the festival [12] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of the week of January 16, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines decreased by 226,400 tons to 2,723,700 tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants increased by 154,700 tons to 3,351,200 tons. The port coking coal inventory decreased by 9,000 tons to 2,989,000 tons. The overall inventory depletion improved as the downstream replenished stocks [14] - **Inventory of Independent Coke Enterprises**: As of January 16, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises increased by 616,700 tons to 11,328,500 tons, and the inventory available days increased by 0.75 days to 13.43 days. The coke inventory of independent coke enterprises decreased by 42,600 tons to 818,100 tons. Independent coke enterprises continued to deplete their coke inventory and replenished coking coal inventory for multiple consecutive weeks [17] - **Inventory of Steel Mills**: As of January 16, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises increased by 44,700 tons to 8,022,000 tons, and the inventory available days increased by 0.11 days to 12.91 days. The coke inventory increased by 46,000 tons to 6,503,300 tons, and the available days decreased by 0.05 days to 11.97 days. Steel mills slightly replenished their raw material inventory [21] - **Coke Production Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of January 16, the production capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 72.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14%, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke decreased by 120 tons to 63,450 tons; the production capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%, and the daily average output of coke decreased by 160 tons to 46,720 tons. The coke production capacity utilization rate of steel mills and independent coke enterprises remained weak and stable after the festival [23] - **Pig Iron Production and Coke Consumption**: As of the week of January 16, China's coke consumption decreased by 680 tons to 102,600 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 1,490 tons to 228,010 tons. The decrease in pig iron production hindered the increase in coke consumption [25] - **Profit of Coke Enterprises**: As of January 16, the average loss per ton of independent coking enterprises was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period. Due to the stop - falling and rebound of coking coal prices, the loss of coke enterprises' per - ton profit intensified. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.83%, a week - on - week increase of 2.17%. Under the pressure on coke enterprises' profits, some coke enterprises were more willing to raise prices, and coke plants issued price - increase letters in mid - January [27] - **Basis Structure of Double - Coking Futures and Spot**: The double - coking futures market fluctuated and stabilized, and the basis between futures and spot prices narrowed [29] 3.5后市研判 (PART 04) - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal supply increased slightly after the festival, and the inventory depletion improved as the downstream replenished stocks. The market sentiment in the stock and commodity markets cooled down this week, and the coking coal's fundamental driving force was limited. Funds were cautious, and the open interest decreased. After the market sentiment stabilizes, attention should be paid to the increase in supply and the sustainability of downstream winter stockpiling. In the short term, the market will mainly fluctuate [32] - **Coke**: The coke production capacity utilization rate of steel mills and independent coke enterprises remained weak and stable after the festival. The pig iron production decreased this week, hindering the increase in coke consumption. The supply - demand situation was "double - weak". Due to the stop - falling and rebound of coking coal prices, the loss of coke enterprises' per - ton profit intensified, and some coke enterprises were more willing to raise prices. The coke futures market will follow the cost side of coking coal with weaker elasticity [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum price may experience high - level volatility and adjustment in the short term, and the aluminum alloy price will follow the electrolytic aluminum price and may also undergo high - level volatility and adjustment [5][72][75]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Report Summary - US employment data supports the rebound of the US dollar index, increasing pressure on non - ferrous metals. The domestic "structural interest rate cut" and moderately loose policies help support the fundamentals, but market sentiment has weakened due to the high - level volatility of precious metals [5]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has increased slightly, and the production volume has also increased. The downstream processing sector has shown differentiated performance among leading enterprises, with the overall operating rate increasing slightly due to pre - holiday inventory preparation. The aluminum ingot social inventory has continued to accumulate, but the inventory level is not high, and the pressure on aluminum prices is limited [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating production capacity has changed little, the social inventory has continued to accumulate but the inventory level is not high, and the processing end operating rate is expected to remain resilient [8]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - The rebound of the US dollar index has increased pressure on non - ferrous metals, and the macro sentiment has weakened [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 Aluminum Ore Supply - **Domestic Supply**: The domestic bauxite supply is tight. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 4.21% year - on - year, but the November output decreased by 5.26% year - on - year. The performance in different regions was significantly different. The northern region faced a phased supply shortage [20]. - **Overseas Supply**: Overseas bauxite supply may be relatively loose. In November, the import volume increased by 9.8% month - on - month and 22.3% year - on - year, with a significant increase in imports from Guinea [23]. 3.3.2 Alumina Market - The alumina market is expected to continue to have an oversupply situation. In 2025, the new domestic production capacity was 9800000 tons, and it is expected to reach 8600000 tons in 2026. If all new production capacity is released as expected, the oversupply will exceed 10000000 tons [27]. 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Production - In December 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.9% year - on - year and 4.0% month - on - month. The aluminum water ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points month - on - month to 76.5%. It is expected that the operating production capacity will increase slightly at the beginning of next year, and the aluminum water ratio may continue to decline [32]. 3.3.4 Aluminum Processing - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 60.2% due to pre - holiday inventory preparation, but high aluminum prices restricted downstream consumption and the recovery of the operating rate [35]. 3.3.5 Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly to 490000 tons, while the SHFE aluminum inventory increased significantly by 10.79% to 143828 tons in the week of January 9 [45]. - **Social Inventory**: As of January 15, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 749000 tons, an increase of 9000 tons from Monday. The inventory is in the accumulation stage, but the pressure on aluminum prices is limited [49]. 3.3.6 Price and Premium - On January 19, the average price premium of Shanghai Wumaobao aluminum was - 140 yuan/ton, with an expanded discount, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium changed from a discount to a premium of 1.42 US dollars/ton [53]. 3.3.7 Recycled Aluminum - In December, the domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 640400 tons, a decrease of 41800 tons month - on - month. Small and medium - sized enterprises faced raw material procurement difficulties, and the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry is expected to decline slightly in January [56]. 3.3.8 Aluminum Alloy Import and Export - In November 2025, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy decreased by 28.2% year - on - year and 4.2% month - on - month, and the export volume increased by 51.5% year - on - year and decreased by 1.0% month - on - month. The import volume is expected to remain low in December [63]. 3.3.9 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - As of January 16, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 69300 tons, an increase of 1100 tons from last week, and the in - plant inventory was 60200 tons, a decrease of 4300 tons from last week [68]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The aluminum alloy price will follow the electrolytic aluminum price, and both may experience high - level volatility and adjustment [72][75].

Report Summary - The rainfall in the main Southeast Asian natural rubber producing areas decreased from January 14 to January 20, 2026, reducing the impact on tapping work [6] - On January 9, 2026, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange officially released the new regulations for 20 - rubber futures, mainly including introducing the concept of "substitute" and adjusting the delivery rules [6] - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10.4% and 9.4% [6] Core View - This week, the rubber market showed a sideways - oscillating trend. The market sentiment cooled down, and the emotional premium in the market faded. The rubber fundamentals changed little. Without positive resonance, the market will oscillate in the short term [7][28] Multi - empty Focus Bullish Factors - The demand for replenishing stocks of natural rubber overseas raw materials supports the upward trend of raw material prices [11] - The price of butadiene is running strongly [11] Bearish Factors - The inventory of natural rubber is increasing slightly, and the inventory reduction is not smooth [11] - The production of butadiene rubber is at a high level, and the inventory in the factory fluctuates at a high level [11] - The slow reduction of tire inventory restricts the capacity utilization rate of enterprises [11] Data Analysis - As of January 15, 2026, the prices of glue and cup - lump in Thailand have increased, while the raw material prices in Hainan and Yunnan in China have changed little. The cost support of rubber is strengthening [14] - As of January 11, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.256 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%. The inventory in Qingdao continued to accumulate [16] - This week, the price of domestic butadiene continued to rise. As of January 15, 2026, the theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber turned from profit to loss, and the production profit was under pressure [17] - As of January 16, 2026, the weekly output and inventory of butadiene rubber in China increased. The supply was loose, and the inventory fluctuated at a high level [20] - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises rebounded after the holiday, but the downstream demand was limited, and the inventory had pressure to reduce, which restricted the increase of the capacity utilization rate. The capacity utilization rate will decline seasonally during the Spring Festival [21] - As of January 15, 2026, the spread of the "RU - NR" main contract was strong, and the spread of the "NR - BR" main contract shrank, mainly due to the difference in the driving force of the raw material end [23] Market Outlook - The market sentiment cooled down this week, and the emotional premium in the market faded [26] - The cost support of natural rubber is strengthening, but the inventory continues to accumulate. The price of butadiene rubber raw material is rising, but the production profit is under pressure. The capacity utilization rate of the tire industry rebounds after the holiday but will decline seasonally during the Spring Festival [28] - The rubber market will oscillate in the short term due to the fading of market sentiment premium and technical pressure [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term, with a relatively limited correction range. Attention should be paid to opportunities for going long at low prices [5][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US employment data shows that in December 2025, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm employment population increased by 50,000, lower than the market expectation. The November data was revised down by 8,000 to 56,000, and the October data was further revised down. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%. The CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining flat compared to the previous value. The initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation [5][12]. - The US will impose a 25% import ad - valorem tariff on some imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives starting from the 15th. However, copper input materials including refined copper are not subject to the tariff, which eases the concern of copper flowing to the US and weakens the support for copper prices [12]. - In December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2%. The PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline [13]. - China's State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal and financial coordination, and the central bank introduced a series of measures to support high - quality economic development. The central bank also stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [17]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - **Bullish Factors**: The tight situation of copper mines remains unchanged, and the registered warrants of LME have dropped sharply [8]. - **Bearish Factors**: The rebound of the US dollar index increases the pressure on non - ferrous metals, the macro sentiment has weakened, and the domestic social inventory of copper continues to accumulate [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Copper Mine Supply**: In 2025, the global copper mine supply was severely disrupted by various events, and the supply of copper concentrates is expected to have a significant gap. The gap may further expand in 2026 and turn to a loose state in 2027 [21]. - **Copper Concentrate TC**: As of the week of January 9, the My steel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 44.81 dollars/ton dry, down 0.08 dollars/ton dry from the previous week. The strike at the Chilean Mantoverde copper mine intensifies the market's concern about supply shortages [24]. - **Electrolytic Copper Output**: In December, the SMM China electrolytic copper output increased by 75,000 tons month - on - month, with a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The estimated output in January 2026 was 1.1636 million tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease [28]. - **Scrap Copper Import**: In November, China's scrap copper import volume was 208,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.9%. However, it is expected that the scrap copper supply will tighten in 2026 due to increased global demand [32]. - **Copper Rod Production**: In December 2025, the production of domestic copper rods decreased by 16.61% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate decreased. In January 2026, the production and capacity utilization rate increased slightly, but the overall increase was limited [36]. - **Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference**: As of January 15, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around 2,950 yuan/ton, which is still at a high level, not conducive to refined copper consumption [39]. - **Copper Inventory**: Last week, LME copper inventory decreased slightly, COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate, and SHFE copper inventory increased significantly. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper also accumulated [50]. - **Copper Spot Premium**: On January 15, the spot premium of Shanghai Wumaotrade 1 copper was around - 120 yuan/ton, with an expanded discount. The LME0 - 3 spot premium was around 37.6 dollars/ton, with an expanded premium [54]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Copper prices will maintain high - level volatility in the short term, with a relatively limited correction range, and attention should be paid to opportunities for going long at low prices [57].