Report Summary - The market focus is on the China-US economic and trade consultations from October 24th to 27th and the "15th Five-Year Plan" policy. The market risk appetite has increased, and the market has more expectations for next year's economic development. In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity and the proportion of molten aluminum slightly increased, and the output changed little. In October, the output is expected to further increase. The average weekly operating rate of enterprises is expected to remain stable at 62.5%. The LME 0 - 3 maintains a premium, and the LME inventory has declined slightly for two consecutive months. As of October 23rd, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons month - on - month. The aluminum price has continued to rise due to the resonance of macro and micro factors, and investors should wait for a callback to buy. Pay attention to the results of the China - US consultations [5]. Multi - Empty Focus Bullish Factors - The increase in the domestic supply side is relatively limited [8]. - The social inventory of aluminum ingots has declined [8]. - The domestic and foreign macro - sentiment has warmed up [8]. Bearish Factors - After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the import volume may gradually increase [8]. - The price of aluminum oxide continues to be weak [8]. Data Analysis Bauxite - In September, China's bauxite output was 4.8821 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.32%. The supply in Shanxi and Henan is tight, but the overall price is expected to remain stable. With the end of the rainy season, the domestic supply is expected to significantly recover [20]. - In September, China's bauxite imports were 15.88 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.2% and a year - on - year increase of 37.5%. The imports from Guinea and Australia decreased. After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the import volume may gradually increase [22]. Alumina - In September, the alumina price declined, and the factory profit decreased but still had a profit. The output decreased by 1.7% month - on - month and increased by 5.3% year - on - year. The actual operating capacity increased by 1.54% month - on - month, and the operating rate was 80.2%. It is expected that the output in October will remain stable [25]. Electrolytic Aluminum - In September, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The operating capacity and the proportion of molten aluminum slightly increased, and the output changed little. In October, the daily average output of aluminum ingots is expected to further increase [29]. - In September, the weighted average full cost of the Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry was 15,918 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 193 yuan/ton. The theoretical industry profit reached 4,849 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 301 yuan/ton [33]. - Last week, the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises was stable at 62.5%. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to slightly increase this week [37]. Inventory - The LME aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and as of a certain time, it was 477,675 tons. The SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 2.2% week - on - week to 122,028 tons [50]. - As of October 23rd, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 618,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons [54]. Price Premium - On October 23rd, the average price premium of Shanghai Wumao aluminum changed from par to a discount of 30 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium decreased to 8.21 US dollars/ton [58]. Recycled Aluminum - In September, the output of recycled aluminum alloy was 661,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. It is expected that the output in October will slightly decrease [62]. - As of October 16th, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry was 58.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3% [66]. Unwrought Aluminum Alloy - In September, the import of unwrought aluminum alloy was about 82,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.2% and a month - on - month increase of 15.77%. It is expected that the import increase in October will be limited and lower than the same - period import volume [70]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - As of October 24th, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 75,300 tons, an increase of 900 tons from last week, and the in - factory inventory was 59,700 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last week [76]. Market Outlook - Aluminum alloy: The price of scrap aluminum is firm, the inventory of recycled aluminum has decreased, and the price of aluminum alloy will continue to remain high [78]. - SHFE aluminum: Due to the resonance of macro and micro factors, the aluminum price has continued to rise. Investors should wait for a callback to buy and pay attention to the results of the China - US consultations [80].

Group 1: Report Summary - China-US economic and trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th, and the market risk preference has increased [11] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held from October 20th to 23rd, passing the "Proposal on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development", which injected confidence into the market [14] - As of the week of October 17th, the standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.7 dollars/ton dry, down 0.13 dollars/ton dry from last week, and the copper concentrate processing fee continued to be under pressure [23] - The trading strategy is to wait for the opportunity to buy on dips when Shanghai copper is in a strong state but may face pressure at the 88,000 integer mark [5] Group 2: Bull - Bear Focus Bullish Factors - Spot processing fees remain low, and the tightness at the mine end still exists; social inventory has a small decline [8] - Domestic and foreign macro - sentiments have warmed up; China - US economic and trade consultations have started, and the market risk preference has increased [8][9] Bearish Factors - Downstream feedback shows weak consumption performance [8] Group 3: Data Analysis Copper Ore and Concentrate Imports - In September, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.5869 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.43%. The supply from Chile dropped by more than 30% [20] Copper Concentrate TC - As of October 17th, the copper concentrate TC continued to be at a low level, and the long - term negotiation has entered the initial stage with large differences [23] Electrolytic Copper Production - In September, the domestic electrolytic copper output was 1.1498 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. In October, the output is expected to continue to decline due to peak - season maintenance and other factors [25] Scrap Copper Imports - In September, China's scrap copper imports were 184,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.8%, mainly due to policy adjustments and market demand [29] Copper Plate and Strip Production - In September, the domestic copper plate and strip production was 196,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35%, ending four consecutive months of decline but still lower than the same period last year [33] Copper Rod Production - In September, the domestic refined copper rod production was 849,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18%, and the recycled copper rod production was 170,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04% [37] Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference - As of October 23rd, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around 230 yuan/ton, which is conducive to refined copper consumption [41] Copper Inventory - As of October 23rd, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 189,800 tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons from the 20th. LME copper inventory decreased, while SHFE copper inventory increased [54] Copper Spot Premium - On October 23rd, the Shanghai Wumaohui 1 copper spot premium turned to a discount, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount narrowed [58] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis Real Estate Market - From January to September, real estate development investment, new construction area, and sales volume all declined year - on - year. In September, the housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline, and the real estate market is still weak [45][47] New Energy Vehicle Industry - In September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6%, showing a strong development momentum [50] Group 5: Market Outlook - Shanghai copper has returned to a strong state, but there may be pressure at the 88,000 integer mark. Wait for the opportunity to buy on dips and pay attention to the results of China - US consultations [60]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint - Recent factors influencing crude oil are generally bearish. OPEC+ continuous production increase adds pressure on the supply side, and as refined oil consumption enters the off - season, the pressure of crude oil supply surplus gradually emerges. The easing of the Middle - East and Russia - Ukraine tensions reduces the geopolitical risk premium. Macro - level negatives increase the downward pressure on oil prices. Oil prices have fallen below the $60/barrel mark and are expected to continue a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $54 - $58/barrel [8][50]. Summary by Directory 1. Report Abstract - Market Focus: Sino - US trade tensions intensify; IEA monthly report raises supply growth expectations and lowers demand growth expectations; the US labor market remains stable but demand is weak according to the Fed's "Beige Book" [7]. - Key Data: US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending October 10 was 3.524 million barrels (expected 288,000 barrels, previous value 3.715 million barrels); EIA Cushing crude oil inventory was - 703,000 barrels (previous value - 763,000 barrels); EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 800,000 barrels (previous value 285,000 barrels) [7]. 2. Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish Factors: Geopolitical uncertainty [11]. - Bearish Factors: Sino - US trade friction and marginal weakening of fundamentals [11]. 3. Macro Analysis - Fed's Expected Rate Cut: Powell's speech indicates that the Fed may cut rates again in October due to weak employment. The market widely expects a rate cut in the October 28 - 29 meeting. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 97.3% [12]. - IEA's Supply - Demand Outlook: The IEA raises the 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels/day to 3 million barrels/day and lowers the demand growth forecast by 30,000 barrels/day to 710,000 barrels/day, maintaining the expectation of supply surplus [13]. - Geopolitical Situation: A cease - fire agreement in Gaza has been reached, but there are uncertainties in its implementation. The Russia - Ukraine conflict also has high uncertainty, and attacks on energy infrastructure may affect oil supply [14]. 4. Data Analysis - Supply Side: US crude oil production reached a new high of 13.636 million barrels/day for the week ending October 10. The number of US oil drilling rigs decreased to 418 from 422 [15][17]. - Demand Side: US refinery utilization rate was 85.7% for the week ending October 10. US crude oil and gasoline demand decreased. European 16 - country refinery utilization rate decreased. Chinese refineries showed a pattern of "main refineries falling and local refineries rising" [19][24][25]. - Inventory: US EIA crude oil inventory may reach a turning point and face inventory accumulation pressure. US Cushing and gasoline inventories decreased [42][46]. - Crack Spread: The US crude oil crack spread decreased slightly, indicating weakening downstream demand [47]. 5.后市研判 - Crude oil is expected to continue a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $54 - $58/barrel [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views of the Report - The copper price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade policies and upcoming important meetings. The mid - term strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged, while being vigilant against the impact of macro - risks [5][57] Summary by Directory 1. Report Summary - The US Federal Reserve's Beige Book shows that the overall economic activity has changed little recently. Overall consumer spending, especially retail spending, has declined slightly. Employment levels have remained basically stable, but demand for labor has weakened [5] - The US Senate voted to advance a Republican stop - gap funding bill. The market is concerned about the US government shutdown and its impact on economic data release [5] - The US economy shows signs of weakness, but the market has high expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Sino - US trade relations are unstable, which repeatedly triggers market concerns about demand [5] - In terms of fundamentals, copper concentrate processing fees remain low, and the tightness at the mine end persists. The production of refined copper has declined slightly, while social inventory has continued to accumulate [5] - The trading strategy is to buy on dips in the medium term, while being alert to macro - risks [5] 2. Multi - and Short - Focus Bullish Factors - Spot processing fees for copper concentrates remain low, and the tightness at the mine end persists [8] - The production of refined copper has declined slightly [8] - The market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in October has increased [8][9][10] Bearish Factors - Sino - US trade frictions have escalated, and there is uncertainty in the macro - market [8] - Domestic social inventory of refined copper has accumulated [8] 3. Data Analysis Copper Mine Supply - In the first half of 2025, the combined output of major global copper mining companies increased by only 1.28% year - on - year, falling short of expectations. The Grasberg mine's production is expected to decrease significantly in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026, and there have been multiple supply disruptions in other large copper mines in 2025, increasing market concerns about supply shortages [18] Copper Concentrate TC - As of the week of October 11, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.53 dollars per dry ton, up 0.06 dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The copper concentrate market shows intensified supply - demand game and continuous pressure on processing fees. Most participants believe that there will be no significant rebound in the short term [21] Electrolytic Copper Production - In September 2025, the actual domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1498 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year increase of 14.48%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 10.1596 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.64%. In October, production is expected to continue to decline due to the peak of smelter maintenance, the impact of scrap copper policies, and reduced incentives for smelters to increase production [23] Scrap Copper Import - In August 2025, China's scrap copper imports were 179,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 1.5149 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The decline was due to import losses, extreme weather, and reduced overseas scrap copper exports [27] Copper Plate and Strip Production - In September 2025, the domestic copper plate and strip production was 196,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35%, ending four consecutive months of decline, but still lower than the same period last year, with a year - on - year decrease of 8.7% [31] Copper Rod Production - In September 2025, the domestic refined copper rod production was 849,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18%. The recycled copper rod production was 170,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04%. Although it was the traditional peak season, the overall demand was not strong [35] Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference - As of October 16, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around 470 yuan per ton, which has expanded, being unfavorable for refined copper consumption [39] Copper Inventory - LME copper inventory has continued to decline, with the latest level at 137,450 tons. SHFE copper inventory increased by 15.4% to 109,690 tons in the week of October 10. COMEX copper inventory has continued to accumulate, reaching a new high since January 2004 at 344,652 tons. As of October 16, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 183,100 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons from the 13th [51] Copper Spot Premium - On October 16, the spot premium of Shanghai Wumaohui 1 copper was around 35 yuan per ton, with an expanding premium. The LME 0 - 3 spot discount was around - 11.16 dollars per ton, with a narrowing discount [55] 4. Market Outlook - The copper price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and upcoming important meetings. The mid - term strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged, while being vigilant against the impact of macro - risks [57]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The rubber market is under short - term pressure. The current fundamental contradictions of rubber are not prominent, but the reduction of weather interference during the peak tapping season may increase raw material supply pressure. Tariff disturbances, overseas economic conditions, and domestic economic recovery uncertainties lead to weak downstream demand expectations [6][26]. Section - by - Section Summary Report Summary (PART 01) - From October 15 - 21, 2025, rainfall in Southeast Asian natural rubber main producing areas changed compared to the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, rainfall in most areas was low, reducing the impact on tapping, while in the southern hemisphere, high - rainfall areas affected tapping in some regions [6]. - In September, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 17.1% and 14.9%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million vehicles, with year - on - year growth of 23.7% and 24.6% [7]. - Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China, and then US Vice - President Vance sent some conciliatory signals. China and the US imposed port fees on each other's ships [7]. - The prices of natural rubber raw materials showed differentiation, and natural rubber continued to have a slight inventory reduction. The price of butadiene, the raw material for butadiene rubber, was weak, and the inventory of butadiene rubber was difficult to reduce. After the holiday, the overall tire production capacity utilization rate rebounded [6][7]. Multi - Empty Focus (PART 02) - Bullish factors: The inventory pressure of natural rubber is not obvious [10]. - Bearish factors: Reduced weather interference increases the expected supply of raw materials; the inventory of butadiene rubber is difficult to reduce; the intensification of Sino - US game and overseas uncertainties increase market risk aversion [10]. Data Analysis (PART 03) - Natural rubber raw material prices were differentiated. As of October 16, the price of Thai raw material glue was 54.1 baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 50 baht/kg. The glue price in Yunnan was 13,500 yuan/ton, and in Hainan it was 12,900 yuan/ton. Rubber cost support was weak and stable [11]. - Natural rubber continued to have a slight inventory reduction. As of October 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1,080,481 tons, a decrease of 7,725 tons from the previous period [15]. - The price of butadiene, the raw material for butadiene rubber, was weak. As of October 15, the delivery price in the central Shandong region was around 8,520 - 8,630 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 8,250 - 8,300 yuan/ton. As of the week of October 17, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 203 yuan/ton [16]. - The inventory of butadiene rubber was difficult to reduce. As of the week of October 17, the production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 30,042 tons, an increase of 53 tons from the previous week. The in - factory inventory was 27,900 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons, and the trader inventory was 4,860 tons, an increase of 840 tons [19]. - After the holiday, the overall tire production capacity utilization rate rebounded. As of the week of October 17, the production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a week - on - week increase of 22.43% and a year - on - year increase of 4.98%. The average inventory available days of sample enterprises was 39.95 days. The production capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a week - on - week increase of 28.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57%. The in - factory inventory available days of sample enterprises was 45.17 days [20]. - The price differences among the three major rubber contracts on the futures market showed differentiation. As of October 16, the 20 - standard rubber was stronger than natural rubber (RU), and the price difference of the "RU - NR" January contract narrowed. The price difference of the "NR - BR" main contract slightly strengthened [22]. 后市研判 (PART 04) - From a macro perspective, the intensification of Sino - US game, the US government shutdown, and political turmoil in European countries have led to strong market risk aversion, putting pressure on industrial products [26]. - From a fundamental perspective, the raw material price trend is differentiated, the cost support of rubber is weak and stable, the inventory of natural rubber continues to decline slightly, and the demand recovery is restricted by slow inventory reduction [26].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, cold and rainy weather in the north will disrupt terminal construction, potentially leading to a situation where the peak season is not prosperous. As asphalt terminal demand gradually enters the off - season, the fundamentals face weakening pressure. The current fundamentals provide limited support for the market, and with high production plans, the weakening of asphalt fundamentals may suppress prices. - Currently, the influencing factors of crude oil are generally bearish. With OPEC+ continuing to increase production, supply - side pressure is gradually increasing, while the demand side is under pressure as refined oil enters the off - season. The expectation of supply surplus is strengthening, which will suppress prices in the medium and long term. Geopolitical tensions easing and macro - level disturbances increase the market's downward pressure, and the cost - side support for asphalt weakens. - Overall, in the short term, asphalt lacks upward momentum, and crude oil will continue to dominate the market trend, which is expected to remain weakly volatile. [7][50] Summary by Catalog 1. Market Focus and Key Data - **Market Focus**: Sino - US trade tensions have intensified; the IEA monthly report has raised the supply growth forecast and lowered the demand growth forecast; the Fed's latest "Beige Book" shows that the US labor market remains stable overall, but demand is still weak [7]. - **Key Data**: As of October 15, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 35.8%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous statistical period; as of October 17, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 62.4 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons from the previous week; as of October 17, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 72.7 tons, an increase of 3.7 tons from the previous week; as of October 17, the social inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 105.1 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons from the previous week [7]. 2. Bull and Bear Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Macro - economic improvement [10]. - **Bearish Factors**: High refinery production plans and OPEC+ production increase [10]. 3. Macro - analysis - **Fed's Expected Rate Cut**: Powell hinted at a possible rate cut in October due to weak employment. The financial market generally bets that the Fed will cut interest rates again at the October 28 - 29 meeting. As of October 16, the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in October was 2.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut was 97.3% [11]. - **IEA's Adjustment of Crude Oil Forecast**: The IEA monthly report raised the 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, maintaining the expectation of supply surplus [12]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: A cease - fire agreement in Gaza has been reached, but its implementation may be repeated. There is still great uncertainty in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and attacks on energy infrastructure may affect crude oil supply and support oil prices [13]. 4. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: As of October 17, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 62.4 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons from the previous week. The output of major refineries was basically flat, and that of local refineries increased slightly. The operating rate of major refineries may have reached its peak, and the output is in a seasonal decline trend, so the supply pressure is expected to decrease. As of October 15, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 35.8%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous statistical period, with a significant increase in the East China region. It is expected that as major refineries enter seasonal maintenance, the refinery operating rate may decline, and attention should be paid to whether the inflection point will be earlier than expected [14][22]. - **Demand**: As of October 17, the weekly shipment volume of domestic asphalt was 39.3 tons, a decrease of 10.3 tons from the previous statistical date. Due to terminal rush - work and pre - holiday stockpiling, the weekly shipment volume of asphalt increased before the National Day holiday, but as demand enters the off - season, the shipment volume is under pressure to decline. As of October 17, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 12.6%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points from the previous week, and it is expected to face downward pressure in the fourth quarter [23][26]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 72.7 tons, an increase of 3.7 tons from the previous week, with large increases in North China and East China. Cold and rainy weather in the north has hindered terminal construction, and factory inventory shipments are not smooth. As downstream demand enters the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation increases. As of October 17, the social inventory of domestic asphalt was 105.1 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons from the previous week, continuing the inventory - reduction trend since August, but the reduction speed has slowed down [34][39]. - **Price Difference**: As of October 17, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing dilution was - 349.1 yuan/ton, up 160.6 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic asphalt basis was 338 yuan/ton, and as of October 15, the asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio was 55.75 [48]. 5. Future Market Judgment - The current fundamentals provide limited support for the market. As downstream demand enters the off - season and there are high production plans, the weakening of asphalt fundamentals may suppress prices. Crude oil factors are generally bearish, and the cost - side support for asphalt weakens. The market is expected to remain weakly volatile. It is recommended to focus on the BU2601 contract in the range of 3050 - 3200 yuan/ton and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices oscillated and rebounded in the two trading days this week, supported by positive macro - sentiment. The overall fundamentals of steel are weak, but expectations are strong before the meeting. Steel prices are expected to move in a range - bound manner, with caution for adjustment pressure if the meeting fails to meet expectations [5][50]. - Iron ore prices showed a strong performance this week. With supply decreasing and demand remaining strong, and port inventory slightly accumulating without significant pressure, iron ore prices are expected to move in a strong - oscillatory manner, subject to downstream demand improvement [5][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: The US federal government shut down on October 1st, delaying economic data releases. China issued policies to manage price competition and introduced industry growth plans [5]. - **Key Data**: The EU announced steel import restrictions, raising tariffs from 25% to 50%. The WTO downgraded the 2026 global goods trade growth forecast to 0.5%. China's September manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points [5]. - **Main Views**: Steel prices are affected by macro - sentiment and fundamentals. Iron ore prices are supported by supply - demand factors and macro - drivers [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - **For Rebar**: Bullish factors include positive market sentiment, policy expectations, and cost support. Bearish factors are policy under - performance, a significant drop in apparent demand, and inventory accumulation [8]. - **For Iron Ore**: Bullish factors are positive market sentiment, policy expectations, high hot - metal production, and reduced shipments. Bearish factors are policy under - performance, a drop in apparent demand, and declining steel mill profits [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Macro - level**: Concerns include the resolution of the US government shutdown and economic data releases. China's September manufacturing PMI improved, and holiday consumption was strong. The 20th Fourth Plenary Session is expected to focus on the 15th Five - Year Plan [10][13][15]. - **Rebar - related**: Spot prices rose slightly, and the basis narrowed. Steel mill profitability declined, with a high blast - furnace start - up rate and a rising electric - furnace start - up rate. Steel production decreased slightly, apparent demand dropped seasonally, inventory accumulated above the seasonal norm, and the coil - rebar spread declined [18][20][22]. - **Iron - ore - related**: Spot prices rose slightly, and the basis fluctuated narrowly. August imports increased slightly, and weekly shipments decreased. Weekly arrivals increased, hot - metal production remained high, port inventory slightly accumulated, and steel mills' inventory decreased during the holiday [33][35][38]. 3.4 Market Outlook - **Steel**: Despite weak fundamentals, expectations are strong before the meeting. Steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range, with attention to the meeting's outcome [50]. - **Iron Ore**: With supply - demand support, iron ore prices are expected to move in a strong - oscillatory manner, depending on downstream demand improvement [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum prices may maintain high - level volatility, but high prices may suppress consumption. Attention should be paid to changes in aluminum ingot inventories and macro - sentiment [62]. - Aluminum alloy shows strong follow - up to Shanghai Aluminum and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. It is recommended to take a long - position on dips [60]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Overseas political fluctuations increase the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The US federal government's "shutdown" affects economic data release, and the ADP employment data shows a decline. The Fed has the intention to cut interest rates further, but is cautious due to inflation concerns. Attention should be paid to whether the US can release CPI data on October 15th and the resulting market sentiment [9][12]. - The domestic economy is slowly recovering. The manufacturing PMI in September increased slightly, and the consumer market during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays showed good growth. The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee may focus on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and become a new market focus [14][16]. - The supply of domestic bauxite has limited growth due to environmental constraints and declining ore quality. The import of bauxite from Guinea is expected to increase after the rainy season, while the import from Australia has decreased [17][18][21]. - The supply of alumina is expected to remain in surplus. Although the operating capacity has not increased significantly, the high production and low overseas prices have opened the import window, and the future surplus pressure may increase [23][24][26]. - The operating rate of aluminum processing decreased slightly in the first week of October, in line with seasonal characteristics. The output of aluminum products increased slightly in August, and the demand is in the transition period between the off - season and the peak season [29][30][32]. - The real estate market's sales and investment continued to decline in August, but the new policies in first - tier cities have supported the market demand to some extent. The investment, new construction, and completion are still under pressure [34][35]. - The new energy vehicle industry maintained strong growth in August, with both production and sales increasing significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [37][38]. - The inventories of domestic and overseas exchanges decreased. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased during the National Day holiday, and the domestic spot discount and LME aluminum premium both expanded [40][41][44]. - The output of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly in August, mainly due to the shortage of scrap and reduced procurement by traders. The operating rate of recycled aluminum has recovered recently, but the overall production is still affected by various factors. The import of aluminum alloy is expected to remain low in the fourth quarter, and the inventory has increased [48][49][59]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: The expected increase in overseas supply is limited, and the social inventory continues to be at a low level [7]. - Bearish factors: The long - term upward trend of aluminum prices is not clear, and the overseas macro - environment is uncertain [7]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Bauxite**: In 2025, from January to August, the domestic bauxite output was 4086.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. The import volume was 14175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.4%, with a dependence of 78.4%. The import from Guinea increased by 38.5%, and the import from Australia decreased by 4.8% [18][21]. - **Alumina**: In August 2025, the output was 792.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. The operating capacity increased, and the supply surplus pattern remained unchanged [24]. - **Aluminum processing**: In the first week of October, the overall operating rate of aluminum processing decreased to 62.5%. In August, the output of aluminum products was 554.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%. From January to August, the output was 4379 million tons, basically the same as the previous year [30][32]. - **Real estate**: In August 2025, the single - month real estate sales area, investment, new construction area, and completion area decreased year - on - year, with the decline in sales expanding. The new policies in first - tier cities have supported the market demand, and the new construction and completion are still under pressure [35]. - **Automobile**: In August 2025, the production and sales of automobiles increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by more than 25% both month - on - month and year - on - year [38]. - **Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased to 508600 tons, and the SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 0.83% to 123597 tons in the week of September 30th. As of October 9th, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 63.4 million tons, an increase of 4.7 million tons compared with September 29th [41][44]. - **Aluminum alloy**: In August 2025, the output of recycled aluminum alloy was 61.45 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The import volume of unforged aluminum alloy in August was 7.10 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7%. As of October 10th, the weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy was 7.57 million tons, an increase of 0.26 million tons compared with the previous week, and the in - plant inventory was 6.15 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons compared with the previous week [49][55][59]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain high - level volatility, and attention should be paid to changes in aluminum ingot inventories and macro - sentiment [62]. - Aluminum alloy shows strong follow - up to Shanghai Aluminum and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. It is recommended to take a long - position on dips [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of Shanghai Aluminum may remain in a high - level oscillation, but high prices may suppress consumption. Attention should be paid to changes in aluminum ingot inventory and macro - sentiment [77]. - Aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up nature to Shanghai Aluminum and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. It is recommended to take a long - position on dips [74]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: Limited domestic supply increase, expected decline in overseas supply, and low social inventory [8]. - **Bearish factors**: Weak alumina prices and increased overseas macro - uncertainties [8]. - **Overseas political situation**: The US federal government's "shutdown" increased global financial market uncertainties. The delay of non - farm data made ADP employment data crucial. The 9 - month ADP employment report showed a decrease of 32,000 people, leading to expectations of Fed rate cuts [9][10][13]. - **Domestic economic situation**: China's economy shows a slow recovery. In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points. The consumption market during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays was good, but the film box office declined year - on - year [14][17]. 3.2 Data Analysis - **Bauxite supply**: In 2025, from January to August, domestic bauxite production was 40.861 million tons, up 7.8% year - on - year. However, due to environmental protection and resource grade decline, the actual supply increase is limited. From January to August, imports were 141.75 million tons, up 31.4% year - on - year, with a dependence of 78.4%. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter [20][23]. - **Alumina supply**: In August 2025, China's alumina production was 7.925 million tons, up 7.5% year - on - year. The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, with high production and an open import window. New capacity is planned to be put into production later, increasing the surplus pressure [27]. - **Primary aluminum production**: In August 2025, primary aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, down 0.5% year - on - year. In September, the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly. The upper limit of electrolytic aluminum capacity is 45 million tons, and the supply increase space is limited. The low proportion of aluminum ingots provides support for aluminum prices [30]. - **Aluminum processing**: In the first week of October, the overall aluminum processing start - up rate decreased to 62.5% month - on - month, showing seasonal characteristics and internal differentiation [33]. - **Aluminum product demand**: In August 2025, China's aluminum product production was 5.548 million tons, up 1% month - on - month and down 4.2% year - on - year. From January to August, it was 43.79 million tons, basically flat year - on - year. Demand is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons [36]. - **Inventory situation**: LME aluminum inventory decreased, and SHFE aluminum inventory decreased slightly in the week of September 30. During the National Day holiday, aluminum ingot social inventory accumulated to 634,000 tons as of October 9, an increase of 47,000 tons from September 29 [48][52]. - **Price difference**: On October 9, the domestic spot discount widened, and the LME aluminum premium widened [56]. - **Recycled aluminum**: In August, recycled aluminum alloy production was 614,500 tons, down 1.7% month - on - month and up 8.6% year - on - year. As of September 25, the recycled aluminum alloy start - up rate was 56.6%, up 0.7% week - on - week [60][64]. - **Aluminum alloy import and export**: In August 2025, the import of unforged aluminum alloy was 71,000 tons, down 16.7% year - on - year; the export was 29,100 tons, up 28.3% year - on - year. It is expected that the import volume will remain low in the fourth quarter [68]. - **Aluminum alloy inventory**: As of October 10, China's aluminum alloy weekly social inventory was 75,700 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from last week; the in - plant inventory was 61,500 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from last week [73]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Aluminum alloy is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and it is recommended to take a long - position on dips [74]. - Shanghai Aluminum may remain in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to changes in aluminum ingot inventory and macro - sentiment [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the fundamentals of asphalt have little change, and its price is mainly driven by crude oil. Affected by the decline in international oil prices during the holiday, asphalt prices fluctuated weakly this week. With limited improvement in asphalt demand, the fundamentals provide limited support for the market. As downstream demand enters the off - season and there are high production plans, the weakening fundamentals may suppress prices. Crude oil continues to oscillate widely due to geopolitical and fundamental factors, but as the peak demand season ends, the expectation of supply surplus strengthens, and the cost - side support for asphalt weakens. Overall, asphalt lacks upward momentum in the short term and is expected to continue the weakly oscillating trend. It is recommended to focus on the BU2511 contract in the range of 3260 - 3400 yuan/ton and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [8][58]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: Israel and Hamas reached a Gaza cease - fire agreement; OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November; there are differences among Fed officials regarding the magnitude of interest rate cuts this year [7]. - **Key Data**: As of September 24, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 40.1%, up 5.7 percentage points from the previous period. As of October 10, the weekly asphalt production was 618,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last week; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 690,000 tons, an increase of 42,000 tons from last week; the social inventory was 1.058 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from last week [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on the BU2511 contract in the range of 3260 - 3400 yuan/ton and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [9]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Geopolitical uncertainty and high refinery production [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: OPEC+ production increase [12]. 3.3 Macro Analysis - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. Russia and Saudi Arabia have a quota of 41,000 barrels per day, Iraq 18,000 barrels per day, UAE 12,000 barrels per day, Kuwait 10,000 barrels per day, Kazakhstan 7,000 barrels per day, Oman and Algeria 4,000 barrels per day each. This shows OPEC+'s determination to compete for market share through production increase, which will increase supply - side pressure and suppress prices [14][16]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: A Gaza cease - fire agreement is expected to be reached, but its implementation may be repeated. The Russia - Ukraine conflict remains highly uncertain, and attacks on energy infrastructure may disrupt crude oil supply and support oil prices [17]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: As of October 10, the weekly asphalt production was 618,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last week. The production of state - owned refineries was basically flat, while that of local refineries decreased. The operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises as of September 24 was 40.1%, up 5.7 percentage points from the previous period, with significant increases in East China and Shandong. As state - owned refineries enter seasonal maintenance, the operating rate may decline [18][28]. - **Demand**: As of September 26, the weekly asphalt shipment was 496,000 tons, an increase of 41,000 tons from the previous week. However, as demand enters the off - season, shipments may decline. The weekly capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt as of September 26 was 18.94%, a decrease of 1.29 percentage points from last week. It is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, with limited long - term growth potential [29][32]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 690,000 tons, an increase of 42,000 tons from last week, mainly in North China and Shandong. The social inventory was 1.058 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from last week, and the de - stocking speed slowed down during the National Day holiday [42][49]. - **Spread**: As of September 26, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing was - 554.7 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.2 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic asphalt basis was 185 yuan/ton, and the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio as of September 30 was 54.85. The crack spread and basis are expected to remain stable [56]. 3.5后市研判 - In the short term, asphalt lacks upward momentum, and crude oil will continue to dominate the market. It is expected to continue the weakly oscillating trend. Focus on the BU2511 contract in the range of 3260 - 3400 yuan/ton and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [58].