1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, macro - factors will disrupt the market. Domestic political meetings and the Central Economic Work Conference are expected to boost domestic macro - expectations, and the Fed's December interest - rate cut situation will affect the domestic export - end expectations [37]. - With the change of the main contract, the delivery pressure of the near - month contract is prominent, and there are opportunities for the spread to widen [37]. - The supply of coking coal has rebounded but the increase is limited. The downstream replenishment has slowed down but there is still room for replenishment. The overall inventory pressure is not large, so the upward and downward driving spaces are both limited. The near - month 01 contract has limited game space, and the far - month 05 contract has limited opportunities for a phased rebound [37]. - The coke production of steel mills and independent coking enterprises shows a weak and stable trend. The iron - water output may decline seasonally, limiting the incremental space for coke demand. After the fourth price increase and the decline of coking coal prices, coking enterprise profits have improved, but steel mill profits are under pressure, which may intensify the game between steel and coking enterprises and reduce the possibility of further price increases [39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Since November, the double - coking futures market has gradually weakened. As of November 26, the main coking coal contract fell 15.67% monthly with a decrease of 197,000 lots in open interest; the main coke contract fell 9.2% monthly with a decrease of 4,301 lots in open interest [7]. - On November 11, affected by the NDRC's winter supply - guarantee meeting, the market's tight - supply expectation loosened, with a large decline on that day, reversing the previous strong - oscillation trend. Later, due to the lack of policy - expectation drive, the spot market was affected by the futures market sentiment, and the transaction price weakened. With the approaching contract change, the near - month contract faced delivery pressure, and the downward pressure on the market increased [7]. 3.2 Data Analysis 3.2.1 Impact of NDRC Meeting on Coal Supply - Side Contraction Expectation - On November 11, 2025, the NDRC organized a video conference on energy supply - guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, arranging work in aspects such as stabilizing energy production and supply, ensuring contract performance, peak - period supply - guarantee, and key protection of people's livelihood energy use [9]. 3.2.2 Domestic Coking Coal Supply - As of the week of November 21, the coking - coal开工率 of 523 sample mines was 86.94%, 3.99% lower than the same period last year, and the daily output of clean coal was 758,000 tons, a decrease of 37,800 tons compared to last year. The开工 rate of 314 sample coal - washing plants was 37.56%, 2.91% lower than last year, and the daily output of clean coal was 276,300 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons compared to last year. However, the supply has rebounded compared to October [12]. - As of the weekly statistics on November 22, the weekly customs clearance volume at Ganqimao Port was 914,490 tons. Although it declined compared to the beginning of the month, the overall customs clearance volume in November was significantly higher than that in October [12]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal Imports - In October 2025, China imported 10.5932 million tons of coking coal, a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year increase of 6.39%. The imports from Australia and Indonesia increased month - on - month. The imports from Mongolia decreased due to the National Day holiday but were still 36.4% higher than last year. The imports from Russia decreased slightly, and the imports from the US were still zero [13][15]. 3.2.4 Coking Coal Upstream Inventory - As of the week of November 21, the clean - coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 1.8592 million tons, a decrease of 1.4167 million tons compared to the same period last year; the clean - coal inventory of sample coal - washing plants was 3.0283 million tons, a decrease of 480,400 tons compared to last year; the port coking - coal inventory was 2.915 million tons, a decrease of 1.7726 million tons compared to last year. Since November, the inventory - depletion rate of upstream enterprises has slowed down, with a slight inventory build - up, but the overall inventory pressure is not large [20]. 3.2.5 Coking Coal Downstream Inventory - As of November 21, the coking - coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 10.3819 million tons, an increase of 1.2162 million tons compared to last year, and the inventory - available days were 12.45 days, an increase of 2.11 days compared to last year; the coking - coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.9708 million tons, an increase of 532,100 tons compared to last year, and the inventory - available days were 12.97 days, an increase of 1.01 days compared to last year. Since November, the replenishment willingness of independent coking enterprises has weakened, mainly focusing on inventory depletion, while steel mills have slightly replenished coking - coal inventory. Overall, the downstream inventory - replenishment enthusiasm is not high [23]. 3.2.6 Coke Production Capacity Utilization - As of the week of November 21, the production - capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 71.71%, 0.07% higher than the same period last year, and the daily output of metallurgical coke was 626,700 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons compared to last year; the coke production - capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.23%, 0.09% higher than last year, and the daily coke output was 462,200 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared to last year. Since November, the coke production - capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills have shown a weak and stable trend, and the coke supply pressure is not large [25]. 3.2.7 Iron - Water Output and Coke Demand - As of the week of November 21, the blast - furnace production - capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 88.58%, 0.05% higher than the same period last year, and the daily iron - water output was 2.3628 million tons, an increase of 4,800 tons compared to last year; the weekly domestic coke consumption was 1.0633 million tons, an increase of 22,000 tons compared to last year. Since November, the daily iron - water output has remained stable at around 2.36 million tons, supporting coke consumption. However, from a seasonal perspective, there is room for a decline in iron - water output, limiting the incremental space for coke demand [28]. 3.2.8 Coke Inventory - As of the week of November 21, the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 652,900 tons, a decrease of 141,800 tons compared to the same period last year; the coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 6.2234 million tons, an increase of 267,000 tons compared to last year; the port coke inventory was 1.93 million tons, an increase of 158,200 tons compared to last year. Since November, the production and sales of independent coking enterprises have been relatively balanced, with no obvious inventory build - up. Steel mills have mainly reduced coke inventory, and the enthusiasm for port cargo collection is weak. Overall, the coke inventory pressure is not large [30]. 3.2.9 Coke Price Increase - In November 2025, the third and fourth rounds of coke price increases were implemented, with a cumulative increase of 200 - 220 yuan/ton. As of November 21, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 19 yuan/ton, and the profitability has improved. The high price of coking coal has increased the production cost of coke, and coking enterprises have transferred the pressure through price increases. As of November 21, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 37.66%, and their profits have been eroded due to the high - price fluctuation of raw materials and the low price of finished products [33]. 3.3 Future Market Outlook - In December, macro - factors such as domestic political meetings and the Fed's interest - rate decision will affect the market [37]. - For coking coal, due to limited supply increase and downstream replenishment, the near - month 01 contract has limited game space, and the far - month 05 contract has limited rebound space. Attention should be paid to the impact of cold weather and policy expectations on supply and demand [37]. - For coke, the production shows a weak and stable trend, and the demand growth is limited. After the price increase, coking enterprise profits have improved, but steel mill profits are under pressure, which may intensify the game between the two and reduce the possibility of further price increases [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - situation shows that US non - farm data is mixed, the market awaits more data, and Fed officials' speeches are mostly hawkish. The market's bet on further rate cuts in December has declined, the US dollar index is under pressure, and risk preference has decreased. The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has stable supply and demand characteristics, with inventory reduction. The aluminum market's fundamentals have few contradictions, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. The long - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is affected by the macro - situation, and it is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - The aluminum market has both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include stable domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity, improved demand and inventory reduction, and tight overseas aluminum supply. Bearish factors are the reduced expectation of Fed rate cuts in December and weak risk preference [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US non - farm employment data in September was mixed. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The market is waiting for more data, and Fed officials' speeches are mostly hawkish, reducing the market's expectation of rate cuts in December. The US dollar index is under pressure, and risk preference has decreased [6][11]. - The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged for six consecutive months. The State Council is promoting "two - heavy" construction and consumption - promoting policies [6][15]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has stable production capacity, and the supply is stable. The demand shows seasonal characteristics, and the inventory has decreased. The fundamentals of aluminum have few contradictions, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Shanghai aluminum's trend is affected by the macro - situation, and it is recommended to buy on dips [6]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for aluminum: Stable domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity in December, improved demand and inventory reduction, and tight overseas aluminum supply [9]. - Bearish factors for aluminum: Reduced expectation of Fed rate cuts in December and weak risk preference [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Aluminum Bauxite**: In October, the national aluminum bauxite production was 477.23 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. The supply in Henan has recovered, but that in Shanxi is still tight. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on imports is ending, and the import volume in December is expected to increase [17][20]. - **Alumina**: In October, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina was 778.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. The operating capacity is at a high level but has slightly decreased. The production profit of some enterprises has turned negative, and it is expected that the alumina price will fluctuate at a low level [24]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.13% year - on - year and 3.52% month - on - month. The aluminum water ratio increased. In November, due to environmental protection policies and seasonal consumption weakness, the aluminum water ratio is expected to decline [27]. - **Aluminum Processing**: The average weekly operating rate of processing enterprises increased by 0.4% to 62%. Each downstream sector is in a weak state, and downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand [31]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly to 544,075 tons, and SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 1.38% to 114,899 tons. As of November 17, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 637,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from last Thursday. The aluminum ingot social inventory has been fluctuating, and the current inventory level is not high [42][45]. - **Price and Premium**: On November 20, the average price premium of Shanghai Wuma aluminum was stable at - 10 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium widened to - 31.16 US dollars/ton [49]. - **Recycled Aluminum**: In October, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 645,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons month - on - month. The operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry increased to 60.5% as of November 13, a week - on - week increase of 1.4% [53][57]. - **Unwrought Aluminum Alloy**: In September 2025, the import of unwrought aluminum alloy was about 82,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12,500 tons (13.2%). It is expected that the import increase in October will be limited and lower than the same period last year [61]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: As of November 21, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 75,200 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from last week, and the factory inventory was 57,900 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last week [66]. 3.4后市研判 - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost of cast aluminum is affected by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand has resilience. The short - term price of aluminum alloy is expected to stabilize and fluctuate [67]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: The recent trend of Shanghai aluminum is greatly affected by the macro - situation. It is expected that the adjustment will continue, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to buy on dips [69].

Report Summary - During the period from November 19th to November 25th, 2025, rainfall in the main Southeast Asian natural rubber producing areas increased compared to the previous cycle. High-precipitation areas north of the equator were mainly concentrated in Vietnam and southern Thailand, while most other areas had low precipitation, increasing the impact on rubber tapping. South of the equator, high-precipitation areas were mainly in western Indonesia and western Malaysia, with medium rainfall in most other areas, also increasing the impact on rubber tapping [5]. - The synthetic rubber market remained volatile this week. On Friday, the market was significantly affected by the macro environment. Due to the non-farm payroll data, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation weakened, putting pressure on global financial assets and affecting commodity sentiment. Fundamentally, domestic rubber producing areas are gradually entering the production reduction and suspension period, and overseas main producing areas are easily affected by rainfall, resulting in limited raw material supply and stable to slightly stronger prices, providing cost support for rubber. Natural rubber inventories increased slightly overall, while inventories in Qingdao Free Trade Zone decreased slightly, with overall inventory pressure not significant. The supply-demand contradiction of synthetic rubber is more prominent than that of natural rubber. Since this year, the capacity expansion of butadiene and synthetic rubber has accelerated, with supply at a relatively high level. Recently, the capacity utilization rates of both all-steel and semi-steel tire enterprises have declined, especially the semi-steel tire enterprises, showing the seasonal off-season effect. The overall tire inventory reduction pressure is large, suppressing the overall tire capacity utilization rate. The supply-demand imbalance has put obvious pressure on the butadiene rubber market. Overall, the natural rubber market lacks prominent contradictions and is likely to move in a volatile manner. Synthetic rubber prices are likely to be weak due to supply-demand mismatch, but the short-term stabilization of butadiene prices provides some support below. Attention should be paid to the widening spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber [6]. - In October 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 510,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 14.27% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 17.27% [7]. - In September, the US non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, more than twice the expected figure, but the non-farm payrolls in July and August were revised down by a total of 33,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in September, the highest since October 2021. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 8,000 to 220,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims reached a four-year high. After the data release, swap contracts continued to show that the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December was low [7]. Bull and Bear Focus - Bullish factors include that natural rubber inventory pressure is not obvious and natural rubber raw material prices are supported. Bearish factors include the weakening of tire enterprise operating rates and the weakening of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, which puts pressure on financial assets [10]. Data Analysis - As of November 20th, the price of Thai raw material latex was 57 Thai baht per kilogram, slightly up from last week. The price of latex in Yunnan was 13,900 yuan per ton, and the raw material price in Hainan was 13,000 yuan per ton, remaining stable from last week. Domestic rubber producing areas are gradually entering the production reduction and suspension period, and overseas main producing areas are easily affected by rainfall, resulting in limited raw material supply and stable to slightly stronger prices, providing cost support for rubber [11]. - As of November 16th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3,100 tons or 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%, and the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 0.05%, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.53%. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.37%, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.71%. As of November 16th, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.062 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5,000 tons or 0.5%. China's total social inventory of dark rubber was 670,000 tons, an increase of 0.8%. China's total social inventory of light rubber was 392,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.01% [14]. - This week, the price of butadiene, the raw material for butadiene rubber, continued to rebound. Although both the production and inventory of butadiene increased, the price had fallen to the lowest level of the year, attracting some buyers to enter the market at low prices. In addition, the short-term upward trend in the market stimulated the "bottom-fishing" sentiment of downstream buyers, and the trading atmosphere improved significantly. At the same time, the good performance of the main downstream products boosted butadiene, and suppliers raised prices, gradually reducing the low-price supply in the market and pushing up the trading center. However, as the price increased, sellers were more willing to sell, and some high-price transactions began to face resistance. As of November 20th, the delivered price in the central Shandong region was 7,480 - 7,600 yuan per ton, and the ex-tank self-pickup price in East China was around 7,100 yuan per ton. As of the week of November 21st, the theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber was 788.2857 yuan per ton, an increase of 181.43 yuan per ton from last week. The price of butadiene rubber moved in tandem with the raw material butadiene price, and the production enterprise's profit continued to improve [15]. - According to Steel Union data, as of the week of November 21st, the production of high-cis butadiene rubber was 29,166 tons, an increase of 1,090 tons from last week. The in-plant inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,630 tons, an increase of 780 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 4,880 tons, a decrease of 90 tons from last week. This week, enterprises had good production profits and high willingness to operate, with production remaining at a high level. However, downstream buyers were resistant to the price, and the trading atmosphere weakened, resulting in poor inventory reduction in the factory [18]. - As of the week of November 21st, the capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a month-on-month decrease of 2.25% but a year-on-year increase of 1.56%. The average inventory available days of sample enterprises were 40.24 days, a month-on-month increase of 0.69 days but a year-on-year decrease of 0.57 days. The capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.63% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%. The in-plant inventory available days of sample enterprises were 45.86 days, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 days and a year-on-year increase of 7.69 days. This week, the capacity utilization rates of both all-steel and semi-steel tire enterprises declined, especially the semi-steel tire enterprises, showing the seasonal off-season effect. The overall tire inventory reduction pressure is large, suppressing the overall tire capacity utilization rate [19]. - As of November 20th, the spread of the "RU-NR" January contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spread of the "NR-BR" main contract fluctuated, mainly due to the support from the raw material side [21]. Market Outlook - From a macro perspective, due to the non-farm payroll data, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation weakened, putting pressure on global financial assets and affecting commodity sentiment. Fundamentally, domestic rubber producing areas are gradually entering the production reduction and suspension period, and overseas main producing areas are easily affected by rainfall, resulting in limited raw material supply and stable to slightly stronger prices, providing cost support for rubber. Natural rubber inventories increased slightly overall, while inventories in Qingdao Free Trade Zone decreased slightly, with overall inventory pressure not significant. The supply-demand contradiction of synthetic rubber is more prominent than that of natural rubber. Since this year, the capacity expansion of butadiene and synthetic rubber has accelerated, with supply at a relatively high level. Recently, the capacity utilization rates of both all-steel and semi-steel tire enterprises have declined, especially the semi-steel tire enterprises, showing the seasonal off-season effect. The overall tire inventory reduction pressure is large, suppressing the overall tire capacity utilization rate. The supply-demand imbalance has put obvious pressure on the butadiene rubber market. Overall, the natural rubber market lacks prominent contradictions and is likely to move in a volatile manner. Synthetic rubber prices are likely to be weak due to supply-demand mismatch, but the short-term stabilization of butadiene prices provides some support below. Attention should be paid to the widening spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the asphalt futures market showed a narrow - range oscillation. After a previous sharp decline, there is a rebound repair momentum, and the downward momentum has weakened. The social inventory of asphalt continues to decline. Although demand has entered the off - season, more negative feedback from the demand side is needed for a unilateral decline in the futures market [8]. - In the future, the futures market lacks bullish drivers and is expected to continue a weak trend. As the asphalt downstream enters the off - season, the pressure of supply surplus is emerging. The expectation of crude oil supply surplus exerts long - term pressure on the futures market. Recently, the cease - fire negotiation between Russia and Ukraine is expected to continue, and the geopolitical risk premium has declined. In the short term, after a large decline, there is a rebound repair momentum, but the oil price is under pressure in the short term, and the cost - side support has weakened. It is expected that the futures market will continue a wide - range oscillation [8][51]. - It is recommended to focus on the range of 2900 - 3100 yuan/ton for the BU2601 contract [8][51] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Market focus: The cease - fire negotiation between Russia and Ukraine is expected to continue, and the geopolitical risk premium has declined; the US EIA crude oil inventory decreased this week; the asphalt cracking spread decreased month - on - month [7]. - Key data: As of November 19, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 24.8%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points from the previous statistical period; as of November 21, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 44.1 tons, a decrease of 7.3 tons from last week; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 64.2 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons from last week; the social inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 79.4 tons, a decrease of 3.1 tons from last week [7] 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt: Supply has decreased [11]. - Bearish factors for asphalt: Demand has weakened, and the oil price has declined [11] 3.3 Macro Analysis - The US and Russia are discussing a framework plan to end the conflict. The US envoy met with the Russian envoy in Miami last month to discuss the plan, which requires Ukraine to make major territorial concessions to Russia. The plan has been rejected by Kiev before. The US government is following the model of mediating the cease - fire in Gaza last month [12]. - Russia's response: The Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that Russia has not received any relevant information from the US through official channels. Such news should be evaluated based on official communication rather than media reports [12]. - Zelensky has received the US peace plan draft. The US believes that this plan may bring a breakthrough to the stagnant diplomatic process. Zelensky is expected to talk with President Trump soon [12]. - The discussion between the US and Russia on ending the conflict conveys a short - term change in the US attitude towards Russia. The market expects that the improvement of US - Russia relations will lead to the relaxation of US sanctions on the Russian energy sector, driving the oil price down. However, due to the volatility of US - Russia relations, the driving force is not sustainable, and the oil price generally maintains a wide - range oscillation [12] 3.4 Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - As of November 21, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 44.1 tons, a decrease of 7.3 tons from last week. Output from local refineries decreased, and that from PetroChina and Sinopec decreased slightly. The refinery operating rate is in a seasonal decline, and supply is expected to continue to decline [13]. - As of November 19, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 24.8%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points from the previous statistical period. The operating rates in East China and Shandong decreased significantly. As refineries enter the seasonal maintenance period, the operating rate is expected to decline, and the supply pressure will gradually weaken [22] Demand - As of November 21, the weekly shipment volume of domestic asphalt was 37 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons from the previous statistical date. The shipment volume is still at a low level this year. In the north, the low - temperature weather has led to the completion of downstream road construction, and the demand improvement in the south is not obvious. As demand enters the off - season, the shipment volume faces seasonal decline pressure [23]. - As of November 21, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 10.59%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points from last week. The capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt is in a seasonal decline, and it still faces downward pressure as the downstream enters the off - season [26] Inventory - As of November 21, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 64.2 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons from the previous week, mainly due to the decline in enterprise inventory in North China [33]. - As of November 21, the social inventory of domestic asphalt was 79.4 tons, a decrease of 3.1 tons from the previous week, continuing the downward trend since August. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory decline speed [40] Spread - As of November 21, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing dilution was - 571 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 42 yuan/ton. The domestic asphalt basis was 182 yuan/ton. As of November 19, the asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio was 51.25 [49] 4. Market Outlook - The futures market lacks bullish drivers and is expected to continue a weak trend. As the asphalt downstream enters the off - season, the pressure of supply surplus is emerging. The expectation of crude oil supply surplus exerts long - term pressure on the futures market. Recently, the cease - fire negotiation between Russia and Ukraine is expected to continue, and the geopolitical risk premium has declined. In the short term, after a large decline, there is a rebound repair momentum, but the oil price is under pressure in the short term, and the cost - side support has weakened. It is expected that the futures market will continue a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to focus on the range of 2900 - 3100 yuan/ton for the BU2601 contract [51]

Report Summary - The report is a weekly analysis of the crude oil market, covering macro - analysis, multi - empty focus, supply - demand analysis, and future market judgment [8]. - This week, the oil price first rose and then fell, showing an overall weak and volatile trend. The influencing factors of crude oil are mixed. Geopolitical disturbances provided support for the oil price at the beginning of the week, while the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement and the expectation of supply surplus put pressure on the oil price [8]. - It is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $56 - 61 per barrel [9]. Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Geopolitical disturbances [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: Progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement and refined oil entering the off - season of demand [11]. Macro Analysis - The US and Russia are discussing a framework plan to end the conflict. The plan requires Ukraine to make major territorial concessions to Russia, but the Russian side says it has not received relevant information through official channels. Ukrainian President Zelensky has received a peace plan draft from the US [12]. - The discussion of the framework plan for ending the conflict between the US and Russia makes the market expect the US to relax sanctions on the Russian energy sector, which drives the oil price down. However, considering the repeatability of geopolitics, the sustainability of the geopolitical easing drive is not strong [12]. Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - As of the week ending November 14, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 28,000 barrels per day to 13.834 million barrels per day. Since August, US crude oil production has rebounded month - on - month, and there is still a probability of further increase [13]. - As of the week ending November 14, the total number of US oil rigs was 417, the same as the previous value. It is expected to remain at a low level this year due to factors such as the contraction of US oil capital expenditure, the decline of resource grade, and policy adjustment [15]. Demand - As of the week ending November 14, the operating rate of US refineries was 90%, a 0.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, indicating that US refineries have ended the seasonal maintenance phase and are expected to drive the recovery of crude oil consumption [17]. - As of the week ending October 31, US crude oil implied demand decreased by 843,000 barrels per day month - on - month, while the implied demand for motor gasoline production increased by 189,000 barrels per day [24]. - In October, the operating rate of 16 European refineries was 80.74%, a 3 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, and it is expected to recover by the end of the fourth quarter [25]. - As of November 20, the operating rate of domestic major refineries was 75.69%, a 2.62 - percentage - point decrease from the previous statistical period, entering the seasonal maintenance phase. The operating rate of domestic independent refineries was 62.97%, a 2 - percentage - point increase from the previous period [30]. - As of November 21, the comprehensive refining profit of domestic major refineries was 854.72 yuan per ton, a 150.6 - yuan increase from the previous statistical period. The comprehensive refining profit of domestic independent refineries was 183.13 yuan per ton, a 6.54 - yuan increase from the previous period [35]. Inventory - As of the week ending November 14, the US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.426 million barrels, and the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 533,000 barrels. The decrease in US crude oil production and the increase in refinery operating rate led to a month - on - month decrease in EIA crude oil inventory [42]. - As of the week ending November 14, the EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma decreased by 698,000 barrels, and the EIA gasoline inventory increased by 2.327 million barrels [46]. Crack Spread - As of November 19, the crack spread of low - sulfur crude oil in Louisiana, US Gulf, was $24.47 per barrel, showing a month - on - month decline. Downstream consumer demand is still relatively strong, which supports the crack spread to some extent [47]. Future Market Judgment - The expectation of crude oil supply surplus remains the main pressure source in the market. In the short term, the oil price may continue to be under pressure. Although the oil price is expected to show an overall weak and volatile pattern, considering the repeatability of geopolitics, the sustainability of the geopolitical easing drive is not strong [51].

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Report Summary - The decline of the double - coking futures market this week was larger than last week. Since November, the coking coal futures market has gradually weakened. Affected by the National Development and Reform Commission's winter supply - guarantee meeting on November 11, the market's expectation of tight supply has loosened, with a large decline on that day. Subsequently, due to the lack of policy - driven expectations, the spot market was affected by the futures market sentiment, and the transaction price weakened synchronously. With the approaching contract change of the main contract, the delivery pressure on the near - month contract increased, and the downward pressure on the futures market intensified. In the short term, the expected increase in supply and the limited restocking by downstream industries due to poor profitability in the steel industry chain have weakened the support for the futures market. However, due to the significant inventory reduction by mining enterprises in the early stage, their inventory pressure is not large, so the downward space for the futures market is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the futures market. After the fourth price increase of coke was implemented and the price of coking coal declined, the profit of coke enterprises has improved, but the profitability of steel mills has been continuously suppressed. The decrease in the profit rate of steel enterprises will intensify the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist further price increases by coke enterprises, reducing the possibility of further price increases. If the price of coking coal回调s, steel mills may even initiate price cuts to seek profits from coke enterprises. The futures market should focus on the support level of coking coal, as it is significantly affected by the trend of coking coal [6]. Market Focus Fundamental Overview - As of November 18, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.8%, a weekly increase of 0.04 percentage points. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.11%, a weekly increase of 0.05 percentage points; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 53.29%, a weekly increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capital availability rate has stopped declining slightly, and the construction progress of some projects in East China has slightly accelerated, but the number of newly started projects is small. As of November 16, the cumulative import and export freight volume at the Ganqimaodu Port was 35.8326 million tons, including 33.8984 million tons of imported coal. The port has completed 80% of its 2025 cargo volume target, with a remaining gap of about 8.7 million tons for coal. The three major ports will be closed on November 26 for the anniversary of the founding of Mongolia and will resume customs clearance on November 27 [7]. Main Views - The supply of coking coal has increased slightly, but the increase is limited. - The inventory reduction of coking coal has been sluggish, but the absolute inventory pressure is not large. - The willingness of independent coke enterprises to replenish coking coal inventory has weakened, and steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement of raw materials. - The overall coke production is weakly stable. - There is still room for the decline of hot metal production, and the growth space for coke consumption is limited. - The profit of coke enterprises has improved, while the profit of steel mills is under pressure [7]. Multi - and Short - Focus Analysis | Long Factors | Short Factors | | --- | --- | | The increase in coking coal supply is limited, and inventory pressure is not large | The profit rate of steel mills is continuously declining, and there is an expectation of a decline in hot metal production | | As winter storage approaches, downstream industries have an expectation of restocking | The National Development and Reform Commission's winter supply - guarantee meeting has revised the market's expectation of the supply side of coal | | | Due to delivery quality issues, the willingness of near - month long - position holders to take delivery is low | [10] Data Analysis Coking Coal Supply - As of the week of November 21, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.66%, and the daily average output increased by 0.06 million tons to 75.8 million tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 37.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%, and the daily average output increased by 0.2 million tons to 27.63 million tons. As of the weekly statistics on November 15, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1.047195 million tons, with a slight decline in the early stage. Overall, the supply of coking coal has increased slightly, but the increase is limited [15]. Coking Coal Inventory - As of the week of November 21, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 1.8592 million tons, an increase of 0.2086 million tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 3.0283 million tons, an increase of 0.0201 million tons. The coking coal inventory at ports was 2.915 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons. This week, the domestic coking coal supply has increased. Affected by the price decline, downstream restocking has been postponed, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. The inventory reduction of upstream enterprises has been sluggish, and inventory has increased significantly in the past two weeks, but the absolute inventory pressure is not large [20]. Coking Coal Procurement by Coke Enterprises - As of November 21, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 10.3819 million tons, a decrease of 0.3078 million tons. Currently, the available inventory days for coke enterprises are 12.45 days, a decrease of 0.31 days from the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 0.6529 million tons, an increase of 0.0714 million tons. This week, independent coking enterprises have seen an increase in their own coke inventory, and their willingness to replenish coking coal inventory has weakened, maintaining a downward trend in inventory for two consecutive weeks [23]. Coking Coal Procurement by Steel Mills - As of November 21, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.9708 million tons, an increase of 0.0691 million tons. The available inventory days were 12.97 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous period. The coke inventory was 6.2234 million tons, a decrease of 0.0006 million tons from the previous period, and the available inventory days were 11.05 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous period. Recently, the coking coal inventory of steel mills has slightly increased, but the increase is not large. Steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement, and the overall raw material inventory remains at a relatively low level [27]. Coke Production - As of November 21, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 71.71%, an increase of 0.07% from the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 0.6267 million tons, a decrease of 0.0033 million tons from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.23%, an increase of 0.09% from the previous period, and the daily average output of coke was 0.4622 million tons, an increase of 0.0005 million tons from the previous period. This week, the coke production of steel mills and independent coking enterprises has shown a weakly stable trend [28]. Coke Consumption - According to Steel Union data, as of the week of November 21, China's coke consumption was 1.0633 million tons, a decrease of 0.0027 million tons. From the data of 247 steel enterprises, the daily average output of hot metal was 2.3628 million tons, a decrease of 0.006 million tons. This week, the hot metal production has declined compared with last week, approaching the level of the same period last year. From a seasonal perspective, there is still some room for the decline of hot metal production, and the subsequent growth space for coke demand is limited [30]. Profitability of Coke Enterprises and Steel Mills - As of November 14, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 19 yuan/ton. Recently, after the fourth price increase of coke was implemented and the price of coking coal declined, the profit of coke enterprises has improved, but the profitability of steel mills has been continuously suppressed. As of November 21, the profit rate of 247 steel enterprises was 37.66%, a further decline of 1.3% from the previous period. The decrease in the profit rate of steel enterprises will intensify the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist further price increases by coke enterprises, reducing the possibility of further price increases. If the price of coking coal回调s, steel mills may even initiate price cuts to seek profits from coke enterprises [32]. Basis Structure of Double - Coking Futures and Spot - The delivery pressure is emerging, and the basis between futures and spot has widened [34]. Market Outlook - Since November, the coking coal futures market has gradually weakened. Affected by the National Development and Reform Commission's winter supply - guarantee meeting on November 11, the market's expectation of tight supply has loosened, with a large decline on that day. Subsequently, due to the lack of policy - driven expectations, the spot market was affected by the futures market sentiment, and the transaction price weakened synchronously. With the approaching contract change of the main contract, the delivery pressure on the near - month contract increased, and the downward pressure on the futures market intensified. In the short term, the expected increase in supply and the limited restocking by downstream industries due to poor profitability in the steel industry chain have weakened the support for the futures market. However, due to the significant inventory reduction by mining enterprises in the early stage, their inventory pressure is not large, so the downward space for the futures market is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the futures market [37]. - The coke production of steel mills and independent coking enterprises has shown a weakly stable trend, but the hot metal production has declined compared with last week, approaching the level of the same period last year. From a seasonal perspective, there is still some room for the decline of hot metal production, and the subsequent growth space for coke demand is limited. Recently, after the fourth price increase of coke was implemented and the price of coking coal declined, the profit of coke enterprises has improved, but the profitability of steel mills has been continuously suppressed. The decrease in the profit rate of steel enterprises will intensify the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist further price increases by coke enterprises, reducing the possibility of further price increases. If the price of coking coal回调s, steel mills may even initiate price cuts to seek profits from coke enterprises. The futures market should focus on the support level of coking coal, as it is significantly affected by the trend of coking coal [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - From November 12 - 18, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared to the previous period. The impact on rubber tapping varied in different regions. The synthetic rubber market stopped falling and stabilized this week, while natural rubber oscillated strongly to repair some previous losses. The domestic economic growth slowed down in October, and policy support is still needed. Natural rubber has cost - side support, with a slight inventory build - up and no obvious inventory pressure. The production of butadiene rubber has been high this year, with obvious inventory pressure in factories, suppressing price elasticity. Downstream tire demand is weakening, and the overall tire production utilization rate is weakly stable. Overall, natural rubber will mainly oscillate, and synthetic rubber will have a weak price trend. Attention should be paid to the widening price difference between natural and synthetic rubber [6][30] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Report Summary - From November 12 - 18, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia changed, affecting rubber tapping differently in different regions. The synthetic rubber market stopped falling, and natural rubber oscillated strongly. In October, the domestic economic growth slowed down, and policy support is needed. Natural rubber has cost - side support, with a slight inventory build - up. The production of butadiene rubber is high, and downstream tire demand is weakening. The market lacks prominent contradictions, and natural rubber will oscillate, while synthetic rubber will have a weak price trend [5][6] - In October, the sales of new energy vehicles in China accounted for 51.6% of the total new vehicle sales, with production and sales increasing year - on - year. The retail sales of passenger cars decreased year - on - year, and the wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars increased year - on - year [7] Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: Natural rubber has no obvious inventory pressure and its raw material prices are supported. Bearish factors: The domestic economic data growth slowed down in October [10] Data Analysis - Economic data: In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and private fixed - asset investment decreased by 4.5% year - on - year. In October, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year [15] - Natural rubber raw material prices: As of November 13, the prices of raw materials in Thailand and domestic regions were at certain levels. The raw material prices were firm due to the approaching off - season in Yunnan and rain in overseas areas [16] - Natural rubber inventory: As of the week of November 7, 2025, the overall natural rubber inventory continued to build up slightly. The inventory in bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased, while that in general trade warehouses increased [20] - Butadiene rubber raw material and profit: The price of butadiene has stabilized recently, and the production profit of butadiene rubber has declined. As of the week of November 14, the theoretical production profit was 606.8571 yuan/ton, down 105.71 yuan/ton from last week [21] - Butadiene rubber inventory: As of the week of November 14, the production of high - cis butadiene rubber increased, the factory inventory increased slightly, and the trader inventory increased significantly [23] - Tire production utilization rate: As of the week of November 14, the production utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises decreased slightly, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased slightly. The inventory days of both increased [24] - Rubber contract price difference: As of November 13, the "RU - NR" January contract price difference oscillated narrowly, and the "NR - BR" main contract price difference was strong [26] 后市研判 - Macroscopically, the domestic economic growth slowed down in October, and policy support is needed. Fundamentally, natural rubber has cost - side support, with a slight inventory build - up and no obvious inventory pressure. Butadiene rubber has high inventory pressure, and downstream tire demand is weakening. Overall, natural rubber will oscillate, and synthetic rubber will have a weak price trend. Attention should be paid to the widening price difference between natural and synthetic rubber [30]

Report Summary - As of November 11, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.76%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non-housing construction projects decreased by 0.16 percentage points week-on-week, while that of housing construction projects increased by 0.05 percentage points week-on-week [5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, emphasizing stable energy production and supply, including coal production, transportation, and power generation, and ensuring the fulfillment of medium - and long - term energy contracts [5]. - Domestic coking coal supply increased slightly, with low inventory pressure. Independent coke enterprises reduced coking coal inventory slightly, and steel mills maintained just - in - time procurement. Coke production was weakly stable, iron - water production increased, and coke consumption rose. The fourth round of price increase for coke was partially implemented, but the implementation time was postponed [5]. - This week, the double - coke futures market fluctuated weakly. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with funds gradually shifting to the far - month 05 contract. Attention should be paid to the intensity and rhythm of downstream winter storage and the impact of domestic stock market sentiment on intraday market fluctuations [5]. Market Focus Bullish Factors - Low inventory pressure of coking coal [8] - Strong performance of thermal coal prices [8] Bearish Factors - Slowdown in China's economic data growth in October [8] - The National Development and Reform Commission's winter energy supply guarantee meeting revised the expectation of coal supply [8] Data Analysis Macroeconomic Data - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,629.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,089.14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 4.5% year - on - year. In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year [13]. Coking Coal Supply - As of the week of November 14, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.28%, a week - on - week increase of 2.52%, and the daily average output was 757,400 tons, an increase of 19,100 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal - washing plants was 37.43%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%, and the daily average output was 274,300 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons. As of the week of November 8, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased [15]. Coking Coal Inventory - As of November 14, the coking coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 1.6506 million tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons; the coking coal inventory of 314 sample coal - washing plants was 3.0082 million tons, an increase of 58,500 tons; the coking coal inventory at ports was 2.985 million tons, a decrease of 57,700 tons [17]. - As of November 14, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 10.6897 million tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons. The available days of inventory were 12.76 days, an increase of 0.11 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coke enterprises was 581,500 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons [20]. - As of November 14, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.9017 million tons, an increase of 28,700 tons. The available days of inventory were 12.87 days, an increase of 0.03 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory was 6.224 million tons, a decrease of 42,400 tons compared with the previous period, and the available days were 11.06 days, a decrease of 0.01 days compared with the previous period [24]. Coke Production and Consumption - As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 71.64%, a decrease of 0.67% compared with the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 630,000 tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons compared with the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.14%, an increase of 0.15% compared with the previous period, and the daily average output of coke was 461,700 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons compared with the previous period [26]. - As of the week of November 14, China's coke consumption was 1.066 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons. The daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel enterprises was 236,880 tons, an increase of 26,600 tons [28]. Coke Price Increase - As of November 14, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises was a loss of 34 yuan/ton, and the loss increased. The fourth round of price increase was gradually implemented. As of November 14, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 38.96%, a further decrease of 0.87% compared with the previous period. The decrease in the profitability rate of steel enterprises intensified the game between steel and coke enterprises, and steel mills postponed the implementation of the price increase, limiting the profit margin of coke enterprises [30]. Basis Structure of Double - Coke Futures and Spot - The spot prices of double - coke were firm, while the futures expectations weakened [32]. Market Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission's energy supply guarantee meeting revised the expectation of a tight coal supply - demand pattern. Macroeconomic data showed a slowdown in economic growth, and the market still needs policy support. In the short term, the market lacks positive drivers and will maintain a volatile trend, with funds gradually shifting to the far - month 05 contract. Attention should be paid to the intensity and rhythm of downstream winter storage and the impact of domestic stock market sentiment on intraday market fluctuations [34]. - This week, the increase in hot - metal production drove up coke consumption. The increase in the average loss per ton of coke promoted the implementation of the fourth round of price increase. The decrease in the profitability rate of steel enterprises intensified the game between steel and coke enterprises, postponing the implementation of the price increase and limiting the profit margin of coke enterprises. The futures market followed the fluctuations of coking coal [37]

铜产业链周度报告 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-11-14 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 | 告 | 摘 | 报 | 要 | A | 0 | 1 | P | R | T | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...