Group 1: Report Summary - Market focus includes China's central bank continuing a moderately loose monetary policy, the US GDP growth accelerating in 2026, the EU carbon tariff implementation increasing steel export costs, and no substantial impact on coal mines from market rumors [6] - Key data shows an increase in US initial jobless claims, a decline in Chinese steel mills' crude steel output and inventory in late December, and a rise in Tangshan billet prices [7] - In the first week of 2026, the steel price reached the upper limit of the range with limited further upside, and the iron ore price is expected to be strong and volatile [8] Group 2: Bull - Bear Focus Bull - bear factors for rebar - Bullish factors are the improvement in December's manufacturing sentiment, the central bank's loose monetary policy, and enhanced cost support [11] - Bearish factors include seasonal decline in steel demand, inventory accumulation, increased steel production, and uncertain impact of export licenses [11] Bull - bear factors for iron ore - Bullish factors are the Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, an expanded CPI increase in November, and low steel mill inventories with restocking expectations [12] - Bearish factors are the continuous accumulation of port inventories, seasonal decline in hot metal production, and increased shipments in the current week [12] Group 3: Data Analysis Macroeconomic data - China's December manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, and non - manufacturing business activity index returned to the expansion range [13] - China's CPI increase continued to expand in December, and PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed [17] - In the US, the manufacturing sentiment declined in December 2025, while the service industry was strong. Attention should be paid to the December non - farm payroll data [19] Rebar data - Rebar spot prices were stable, and the basis narrowed [21] - Steel mill profitability decreased slightly, with the profitability rate dropping to 37.66% [23] - The blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates increased, with the blast furnace rate rising to 79.31% and the electric furnace rate to 72.97% [25] - Steel output continued to rise, with five types of building materials reaching 818.59 (+3.41) million tons [29] - Steel apparent demand was in a seasonal decline, with five types of building materials at 796.82 (-44.2) million tons [30] - Rebar inventory accumulated, with the total inventory reaching 438.11 (+16.08) million tons [34] Iron ore data - Iron ore spot prices rose, and the basis fluctuated narrowly [35] - In November, China's iron ore imports decreased, and the initial 2026 shipments also declined [39] - Iron ore arrivals increased in the week from December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026 [40] - Hot metal production remained resilient, with an average daily output of 229.5 million tons [42] - Port inventories continued to accumulate as the port clearance volume decreased [46] - Steel mills' iron ore consumption and inventory increased simultaneously, with the inventory reaching 8989.59 million tons [48] Group 4: Market Outlook - For steel, the upward space is limited, and it will continue to operate within the range. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and the impact of export licenses [51] - For iron ore, the short - term drivers are mostly positive, and it is expected to be in a strong and volatile state [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of aluminum is difficult to increase significantly, while the future demand is expected to improve, which will support the aluminum price in the long - term. However, in the short term, the off - season demand weakens, and the social inventory accumulates, so the aluminum price may maintain a high - level shock. It is recommended to allocate at low prices and pay attention to changes in macro - emotions [5]. - The price of aluminum alloy will continue to remain high due to its strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum, tight raw materials, and the impact of illegal tax refund policies [69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US economic data is mixed, with some employment data falling short of expectations, and the labor market is sluggish. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation at the end - of - the - month meeting is still unclear, and the geopolitical premium of non - ferrous metals has heated up. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling, with limited space for further increase. Overseas production has reduced or stopped due to power issues, and the new production increase is uncertain. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream demand is weak. - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased, but the cost pressure is difficult to be transmitted downstream, and the terminal's acceptance of high - priced raw materials is limited. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to accumulate. Although the traditional real - estate demand is average, the new energy demand is expected to boost aluminum demand, and the "aluminum replacing copper" trend will also increase demand [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - **Bullish factors**: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum has little change, the US dollar index is in a weak position, and the domestic market has a high risk appetite [8]. - **Bearish factors**: The social inventory in the domestic market is accumulating, and the precious - metal market is cooling down [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Aluminum Bauxite**: From January to November, China's cumulative output of aluminum bauxite increased year - on - year, but the output in November decreased year - on - year, with significant differentiation in major producing areas. The domestic supply is tight, while the import volume in November increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the overseas supply may be relatively loose [18][21]. - **Alumina**: In 2025, the new domestic production capacity was less than expected. It is expected that in 2026, new production capacity will be added, and the supply is expected to continue to be in surplus [25]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In November 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The operating capacity increased slightly, and it is expected that the operating capacity will increase slightly in the future, while the proportion of molten aluminum may continue to decline [30]. - **Downstream Processing**: The off - season demand is weak, but the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has increased due to the lifting of environmental protection restrictions [33]. - **Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory has decreased slightly, while the SHFE aluminum inventory has increased. The social inventory of aluminum continues to accumulate [43][47]. - **Price**: The domestic spot discount range has narrowed, and the LME aluminum discount range has also decreased [51]. - **Recycled Aluminum**: In November, the domestic production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased month - on - month. The waste - aluminum supply is tight, and the operating rate is stable. The import volume of waste aluminum in November increased month - on - month and year - on - year [55][63]. 3.4 Market Outlook - **Aluminum Alloy**: It has a strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum, and due to tight raw materials and the impact of illegal tax refund policies, the price will continue to maintain a high level [69]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: In the short term, it may maintain a high - level shock. It is still recommended to allocate at low prices and pay attention to changes in macro - emotions [71].

铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2026-1-9 中航期货 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 | 再 | 美 | 市 | 下 | 有 | 低 | 计 | 于 | 势 | 数 | 杜 | 显 | 台， | 矿 | 幅 | 逢 | 的 | 铜 | 则 | 对 | 积 | 累 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 据 | 指 | 马 | 扰 | 存 | 议 | 底 | 铜 | 小 | 出 | 场 | 累 | 数 | 统 | 业PMI | 月 | 步 | ...

焦煤焦炭周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2026-01-09 目录 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 | 报告摘要 | PART 01 1. | 1月7日下午，重点焦化企业代表召开专题市场分析会。深入分析了焦炭市场的供需格局及价格走势：焦化企业均处于深度亏 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 损状态，限产幅度保持在15-35%。与会焦化企业达成以下共识：各企业继续主动限产、减产，继续缓解供应压力。减少或停 | | | | 止采购高价煤炭，优化煤炭库存结构，有效控制成本。主动与钢厂沟通，稳定价格，对于再提降价的，坚决停止发货。 | | | 2. | 陕蒙重点电煤矿山调研结果显示，目前陕蒙矿山均未收到与产能核减相关的正式文件及官方通知，市场消息尚未对煤矿生产 | | 市场焦点 | | 销售环节产生实质性扰动。 | | | 3. | 据百年建筑调研，截至1月6日，样本建筑工地资金到位率为59.53%，周环比下降0.37个百分点。其中，非房建项目资金到位 | | | | 率为60.59%，周环比下降0.41个百 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the period from January 7 to January 13, 2026, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased slightly compared to the previous period. The impact on rubber tapping work increased slightly in most areas north of the equator and decreased in most areas south of the equator [6]. - This week, the natural rubber futures market fluctuated strongly. Market liquidity and risk preference, as well as the cost support from raw materials, drove up the price, but the demand for downstream tires and finished - product inventory dragged down the upward slope. Although the price is currently at the upper edge of the range and technically pressured, the center of the market's oscillation is still expected to rise as long as the macro - sentiment persists [7]. - The 2026 automobile trade - in policy will benefit more consumers than in 2025, potentially boosting new car consumption [8]. - In December 2025, the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.57 million, a year - on - year increase of 4% and a month - on - month decrease of 8%. The cumulative wholesale volume in 2025 was 15.33 million, a year - on - year increase of 25% [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary (PART 01) - The rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia had different impacts on rubber tapping work in different regions during January 7 - 13, 2026 [6]. - The natural rubber futures market was bullish this week. Market liquidity, cost support from raw materials, and downstream tire demand had different effects on the price. The price was expected to rise further due to macro - sentiment [7]. - The 2026 automobile trade - in policy would benefit more consumers and potentially boost new car consumption. The new - energy passenger vehicle wholesale volume in December 2025 and the whole year had specific year - on - year and month - on - month changes [8]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus (PART 02) - **Bullish factors**: Strong demand for raw material replenishment overseas supported the price of natural rubber raw materials; the reduction of butadiene inventory pressure supported its price; market liquidity and risk preference increased [11]. - **Bearish factors**: The inventory of natural rubber was piling up slightly; the production and inventory of cis - butadiene rubber were high; the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises was weakened by seasonal factors [11]. 3.3 Data Analysis (PART 03) - **Natural rubber raw material prices**: As of January 9, 2026, the prices of Thai glue and cup rubber, as well as those in Hainan and Yunnan in China, were stronger than before. The approaching of the off - season in domestic producing areas and overseas replenishment needs drove up the prices [12]. - **Natural rubber inventory**: As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.232 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. The inventory in Qingdao continued to pile up due to changes in inbound and outbound rates [15]. - **Butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber**: This week, the domestic butadiene price rose rapidly due to factors such as expected reduction in imports and strong downstream demand. The theoretical production profit of cis - butadiene rubber decreased. As of January 9, 2026, the production of cis - butadiene rubber was high and the inventory fluctuated at a high level [16][19]. - **Tire enterprises**: As of the week of January 9, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. The inventory depletion of all - steel tires was slightly better than that of semi - steel tires. The capacity utilization rate was expected to recover after the New Year's Day holiday but would decline seasonally during the Spring Festival [20]. - **Price differences between rubber contracts**: As of January 8, the price difference between the "RU - NR" main contracts was relatively stable, while the "NR - BR" main contract price difference narrowed, mainly affected by the stronger performance of butadiene prices [23]. 3.4后市研判 (PART 04) - Macro factors, natural rubber fundamentals, synthetic rubber fundamentals, and downstream tire demand had different impacts on the market. Market liquidity and raw material cost support were the main driving forces, while downstream demand and inventory were drag factors. The price was at the upper edge of the range, but the market's oscillation center was expected to rise as long as the macro - sentiment remained [26].

贵金属2026年报 ——贵金属仍处上行通道， 拐点关注美联储政策变化与美国经济改善 汪楠 从业资格号：F3069002 投资咨询号：Z0017123 中航期货 2025-12-31 02 宏观面 目录 01 后市研判 03 基本面 后市PA研RT判01 Ø 2025年贵金属市场表现亮眼，黄金和白银均呈现加速上涨格局，不断突破历史新高。年内国际金价从2600美元/盎司上涨至最高4550美元/盎司 以上，涨幅70%以上；国际银价从29美元/盎司上涨至最高82美元/盎司上方，涨幅高达180%以上。2025年贵金属价格上涨的逻辑不断切换，从 上半年市场交易对等关税及美国经济衰退担忧带来的避险需求，到下半年交易降息预期带来的流动性宽松预期，叠加白银实物供需紧缺驱动 资金流入贵金属市场，价格加速上行，波动显著放大。在金价上涨的过程中，白银涨幅遥遥领先，实现了金银比的修复回归。 Ø 展望2026年，当前支撑贵金属价格上涨的逻辑并没有发生改变，贵金属仍处上行通道。美国财政货币双宽松的背景下，美元信用持续受损， 去美元化加速资产储备的多元化，全球央行延续购金将继续支撑金价，重点关注中国央行购金行为；而流动性宽松仍将是2026年 ...

Ø 观点：在全球原油市场维持供应过剩的背景下，2026年油价运行中枢预计将承压。基准情景下，我们预计WTI原油价格可能下探 50美元/桶的关键支撑，对应国内SC原油期货价格或测试380元/桶附近。 Ø 逻辑：供应过剩仍是当前的主要逻辑，这一格局由"供应稳步增长"和"需求弹性不足"共同决定。一方面，在OPEC+增产及非 OPEC+国家产量增加的现实背景下，全球原油产量仍维持稳步增加，两者共同保障了全球产量的稳步增长，但受投资约束与资源 条件限制，整体增速预计将较往年放缓。另外一方面，随着全球经济步入低增速周期，原油需求更多体现为刚性，有限需求增 量难以扭转供应过剩的局面。在此背景下，油价整体将延续偏弱运行的态势，库存周期的将主导油价的阶段性走势，走势大概 率呈现"先抑后扬"的格局。一季度作为传统的消费淡季，将导致上半年全球原油市场面临显著的累库压力，油价预计震荡寻 底，二是下半年随着季节性需求回暖，叠加OPEC+可能根据市场变化调整产量政策，供需矛盾有望边际缓和，从而为油价提供支 撑。 Ø 风险点：地缘政治因素将继续作为2026年油价波动的核心扰动项，但其影响方向可能出现分化。一方面，中东局势存在恶化的 潜在风 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not include the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the coking coal price center is expected to remain stable or rise slightly. Policy regulation may shift towards dynamic supply - demand balance, and the import volume of Mongolian coal is a key variable affecting market supply. The inventory structure may initially suppress prices but could support price increases later with policy implementation and demand improvement. Coking coal price is bounded by policy at the bottom and limited by steel demand and imported coal supply at the top [41]. - In 2026, coke has weak self - driving force, and its price mainly follows coking coal. The inventory transfer affects the price, and the implementation of energy - consumption standards will optimize the industry structure in the long run. Coke price is limited by steel demand and mill profits at the top and supported by coking coal cost and capacity - reduction policies at the bottom [44]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the double - coking futures market showed a pattern of "first decline, then rise, and then wide - range sideways oscillation." In the first half of the year, due to supply - demand imbalance, prices declined unilaterally. From July, prices rebounded strongly due to policy drives. During the "Golden September and Silver October," demand was mediocre, and in the traditional off - season, downstream demand was weak, but policy expectations supported the market [5][6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Expectations - End - of - year important meetings and policies boost the expectations for 2026. The Central Economic Work Conference set key tasks for 2026, and the National Fiscal Work Conference proposed a more proactive fiscal policy. There are also policies in market regulation, real - estate tax, consumer subsidies, and project approvals [7]. - Supply - guarantee and environmental - protection policies affect industry expectations. The energy supply guarantee work for the heating season was arranged, and the benchmark levels for clean and efficient coal utilization were released, which will increase enterprise costs [8][9]. 3.3 Fundamental Situation - **Domestic Coal Production**: In 2025, the growth rate of domestic raw coal production slowed down, and imports were restricted. From January to November, raw coal output increased by 1.4% year - on - year, and coal imports decreased by 11.94% year - on - year. In 2026, total supply is expected to be stable, and imports will be used to balance the domestic market [11][12]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: As of December 26, 2025, the supply of domestic coking coal tended to be stable. Mine inventory increased, production decreased slightly, and the production of coal - washing plants was lower than the previous year. The supply - demand relationship was loose [14]. - **Coking Coal Imports**: From January to November 2025, China's coking coal imports decreased by 5.67% year - on - year, with the import pattern concentrating on Mongolia and Russia. Mongolian coal is expected to be the main source of incremental supply in 2026, while Russian coal supply will be stable [16]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: In 2025, the inventory of sample mines increased in the first half and fourth quarters and decreased in the third quarter. The inventory of coal - washing plants and ports fluctuated little. In 2026, inventory trends depend on demand recovery and supply - side policies [23]. - **Downstream Coking Coal Strategy**: In 2025, independent coking enterprises and steel mills adopted a "low - inventory" strategy. Coking enterprises' replenishment was affected by profits and seasons, while steel mills' replenishment was passive and phased [24]. - **Coke Production**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative coke output increased by 3.2% year - on - year. The production of steel - mill - affiliated coking plants was stable, while that of independent coking enterprises was more elastic. The over - capacity pattern will continue in 2026 [26]. - **Coke Consumption**: In 2025, strong demand in industries such as automobiles and shipbuilding supported hot - metal production, driving up coke consumption. In 2026, terminal demand will continue to be structurally differentiated [32]. - **Coke Inventory**: In 2025, coke inventory transferred from coking plants to downstream in the middle of the year and became looser in the fourth quarter. In 2026, the inventory structure will remain loose under weak demand [35]. - **Coking Enterprise Profits**: In 2025, independent coking enterprises' profits mostly remained below the break - even point. The industry will remain in a state of "high capacity, low profit" in 2026, and prices will follow coking coal [37]. - **Exchange Contract Adjustment**: The exchange modified the coking coal contract information, including quality indicators, regional premium and discount, and contract rules, to improve the spot - futures price relationship [39][40]. 3.4 Future Outlook - **Coking Coal**: In 2026, the coking coal price center may be stable or rise slightly, affected by policies, imports, inventory, and price linkages [41]. - **Coke**: In 2026, coke price mainly follows coking coal, affected by inventory transfer and industry policies. The price is limited by steel demand at the top and supported by cost and policies at the bottom [44].

铝年报 铝价中枢有望稳步上 价中枢有望稳步上 移 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2025-12-26 中航期货 目录 01 后市 研判 02 行情回顾 03 宏观 面 04 基本 面 | 几 | 为 | 继 | 国 | 面 | 铝 | 市 | 注 | 境 | 已 | 动、 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 化 | 端 | 点， | 关 | 号 | 环 | 氧 | 求 | 变 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 性 | 信 | 点 | 长 | 需 | 本 | 量。 | 重 | 的 | 动 | 增 | 成 | | | | | | | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the asphalt futures market showed a wide - range oscillation. The international crude oil price rebounded due to the tense US - Venezuela relations, strengthening cost support and causing concerns about supply tightening at the raw material end, which supported the asphalt market. However, the weak fundamental situation of asphalt restricted the rebound height as the开工 rate and weekly output of domestic asphalt sample enterprises increased, and both factory and social inventories rose, indicating great pressure on downstream demand. In the future, with the expectation of supply surplus, there is significant pressure for continuous strengthening of crude oil. Although the tense US - Venezuela relations may cause disturbances, considering the substitution of domestic raw material sources, the actual impact may be limited, mainly reflected as a bullish sentiment, and the upward driving force is weak. It is expected that the market will continue to oscillate widely [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: The US has increased efforts to seize Venezuelan oil tankers; the negotiation of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan continues; the EIA data release is postponed to next week [7][8]. - **Key Data**: As of December 24, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise's开工率 was 31.3%, up 3.7 percentage points from the previous statistical period. As of December 26, the domestic asphalt weekly output was 55.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.6 tons; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 59.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons; the social inventory was 74.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7 tons [8]. - **Main Views**: The asphalt market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure near 3000 - 3050 yuan/ton of the BU2602 contract [8][9]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Disturbances at the raw material end; the implementation of winter storage policies provides a floor price support for the market [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: Weakening demand; a month - on - month increase in supply [12]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Initial Jobless Claims**: On December 24, the US Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending December 20 dropped to 214,000, lower than the expected and previous value of 224,000, indicating no obvious pressure in the labor market [13]. - **Interest Rate Cut Expectations**: According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in January 2026 is 15.5%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 84.5%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 42.2%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 51.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 6% [13]. - **Trump's Statement**: Trump hopes that the Fed chairman he nominates will cut interest rates when the economy is good [13]. - **US - Ukraine and US - Russia Meetings**: The US - Ukraine meeting in Miami from December 19 - 21 focused on a "20 - point peace plan" draft, and Zelensky confirmed the completion of the initial draft. The US - Russia meeting in Miami from December 20 - 21 was considered "productive and constructive". The market expects geopolitical risks to ease, and there are concerns that Russian oil inflow after a cease - fire agreement may exacerbate supply surplus and suppress oil prices [14]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: As of December 26, the domestic asphalt weekly output was 55.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.6 tons, with a decrease in refineries and increases in Sinopec, CNPC, and local refineries. As of December 24, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise's开工率 was 31.3%, up 3.7 percentage points, mainly due to raw material disturbances, but it is expected to decline as the downstream is in the off - season. Supply is expected to remain at a low level for the year [16][24]. - **Demand**: As of December 26, the domestic asphalt weekly shipment volume was 40.4 tons, an increase of 5.4 tons from the previous statistical period, showing a phased rebound due to winter storage demand and refinery restarts, but still restricted by weak northern demand and high inventory. As of December 26, the domestic modified asphalt weekly capacity utilization rate was 7.1%, down 0.56 percentage points from last week, and it is expected to continue to decline seasonally [25][28]. - **Inventory**: As of December 26, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise's factory inventory was 59.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons, with increases in East and South China and decreases in Shandong and Northwest China. The social inventory was 74.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7 tons, ending the destocking trend since August, indicating weakening downstream demand [34][42]. - **Spread**: As of December 26, the domestic asphalt processing dilution weekly profit was - 399 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton. As of December 25, the domestic asphalt basis was 95 yuan/ton. As of December 24, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 51.3. Due to strong oil prices, the cracking spread decreased, and the falling spot price led to a weaker basis, indicating pressure in the spot market [51]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The asphalt market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation. Geopolitical tensions and winter storage policies provide some support, but the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. Supply pressure has increased, and inventories have risen. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure near 3000 - 3050 yuan/ton of the BU2602 contract [53].