Report Summary - The report is an asphalt weekly report released by AVIC Futures on July 25, 2025 [2] - The current asphalt fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. The weekly production and operating rate on the supply side decreased, while the shipment volume on the demand side increased slightly. The decline in factory inventory was lower than the decrease in production, indicating poor sales for refineries, and the social inventory increased slightly, suggesting weak downstream demand [6] - Crude oil currently lacks a core driving factor. Seasonal peak - season consumption demand and improved macro - risk sentiment provide some upward momentum, but OPEC+ continuous production increase suppresses the oil price rebound expectation. It is expected that the oil price will continue to fluctuate widely in a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern. The asphalt supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and crude oil fluctuations will dominate the market trend [6] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the range of 3550 - 3700 yuan/ton for the BU2509 contract [7] Multi - empty Focus - The multi - factors for asphalt are marginal improvement in supply - demand and low inventory, while the empty factors are lower - than - expected demand and high supply [10] Macro Analysis Trade Agreements - China and the US will hold a new round of economic and trade talks from July 27 - 30 in Sweden [11] - The US and Japan reached a trade agreement on July 23, including issues such as a 15% tariff and supply - chain cooperation [11] - The EU voted to impose counter - tariffs on $93 billion worth of US products on July 24. The EU plans to merge two retaliatory tariff lists into one [11] - US President Trump said on July 23 that the US will impose simple tariffs of 15% - 50% on most other countries [11] Oil Market Forecasts - OPEC maintains the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. It also maintains economic growth forecasts for this year and next year. In June, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 220,000 barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day [12] - IEA lowers the 2025 average oil demand growth forecast from 720,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day and the 2026 forecast from 740,000 to 722,000 barrels per day. It raises the 2025 global oil supply growth forecast from 1.8 million to 2.1 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast from 1.1 million to 1.3 million barrels per day [12] - The OPEC monthly report is relatively neutral, while the IEA report is relatively pessimistic, maintaining the expectation of crude oil supply surplus [12] Data Analysis Supply - In June, OPEC's crude oil production was 27.237 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 221,000 barrels per day, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. However, it is still lower than the production increase plan [13] - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt weekly production was 516,000 tons, a decrease of 56,000 tons from the previous week. The increase in refinery maintenance plans led to a slight decline in production, but there is potential for a seasonal rebound in the third quarter [15] - As of July 23, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 28.8%, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the previous statistical period. The decline was more obvious in South China and Shandong. The reasons include refineries adjusting production plans and seasonal demand disturbances [24] Demand - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt weekly shipment volume was 415,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous week. The shipment volume has increased slightly for three consecutive weeks but is still lower than that at the beginning of June, indicating a phased weakening of demand due to southern rainfall [25] - As of July 25, the domestic modified asphalt weekly capacity utilization rate was 14.46%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was flat in most regions this week [28] Import and Export - In June, domestic asphalt imports were 375,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons (5.51%) and a year - on - year increase of 32.56%. The cumulative imports from January - June were 1.725 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.53% [35] - In June, domestic asphalt exports were 29,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,600 tons. The cumulative exports from January - June were 279,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 53.36% [38] Inventory - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise factory inventory was 723,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38,000 tons. The decline in factory inventory was lower than the decrease in production, indicating poor sales for refineries [48] - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt social inventory was 1.352 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,000 tons. The increase was due to the impact of typhoons and rainfall in the southern region on demand [55] Spread - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt processing dilution weekly profit was - 514.2 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.9 yuan/ton. As of July 23, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 54.94, and as of July 24, the asphalt basis was 133 yuan/ton. The asphalt cracking spread declined this week due to the phased weakening of asphalt fundamentals [60]

Report Summary - Market focus includes Trump's "major statement" on Russia, OPEC maintaining 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast, and IEA raising 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast while lowering demand growth forecast [7][8] - Key data shows US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels in the week ending July 11, strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 213,000 barrels [8] - The main view is that crude oil prices oscillated weakly this week due to the disappointment of sanctions expectations and the geopolitical premium retreat. Looking ahead, factors are mixed, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern [8][52] - The trading strategy is to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $65 - $69 per barrel [9] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors are demand improvement expectations and geopolitical uncertainties; bearish factors are OPEC+ production increase expectations and tariff policy uncertainties [12] Macro Analysis - US tariff negotiations progress slowly and are uncertain. Trump is close to a deal with India, no progress with Japan, and there are large differences with the EU [13] - The issue of firing Powell continues, which may lead to the selling of the US dollar and Treasury bonds. The Fed's "Beige Book" is pessimistic about the economy, indicating that the Fed may remain "on hold" [14] - OPEC maintains supply and demand growth forecasts, while IEA raises supply forecast and lowers demand forecast, with OPEC's June production increasing by 220,000 barrels per day [15] Data Analysis Supply - OPEC's June crude oil production was 27.237 million barrels per day, an increase of 221,000 barrels per day month - on - month, but still below the production increase plan [16][17] - US crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels per day to 13.375 million barrels per day in the week ending July 11, and is expected to remain low [18] - The number of US oil drilling rigs decreased by 1 to 424 in the week ending July 11, and is expected to stay low [20] Demand - US crude oil consumption demand increased by 1.917 million barrels per day week - on - week, while gasoline demand decreased by 835,000 barrels per day week - on - week [26] - US refinery utilization rate was 93.9% in the week ending July 11, supporting crude oil consumption, but with limited growth space in the long term [27] - China's major refinery utilization rate was 81.21% as of July 17, down 0.26 percentage points, and independent refinery utilization rate was 58.54%, up 0.52 percentage points [33] - China's major refinery profits decreased due to rising crude oil costs and high - inventory of refined oil products, while independent refinery profits were flat [38] Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels in the week ending July 11, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels [43] - Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 213,000 barrels, and gasoline inventory increased by 3.399 million barrels in the week ending July 11 [48] Crack Spread - US crude oil crack spread was $20.7 per barrel as of July 16, rebounding slightly week - on - week, indicating the recovery of refined oil consumption [49] Future Outlook - Crude oil prices are expected to continue the oscillating and slightly upward trend in the "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern due to mixed factors [52]

Report Summary - China's automobile production and sales in June reached 2.794 million and 2.904 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year increases of 11.4% and 13.8%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million vehicles, up 26.4% and 26.7% year-on-year [5]. - The rainfall in the world's major natural rubber producing areas increased week-on-week. In the next two weeks, the overall rainfall in the Southeast Asian rubber-producing areas will increase compared to the previous period, affecting rubber tapping [5]. - Foreign institutions collectively raised their GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025. Morgan Stanley raised its forecast from 4.5% to 4.8%, Goldman Sachs from 4.6% to 4.7%, and UBS from 4% to 4.7% [5]. - From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 571,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month decrease of 5%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 11.473 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 11%. The retail sales of the new energy passenger car market were 332,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 26% and a month-on-month decrease of 4%. The penetration rate of the new energy market was 58.1%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 5.801 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 33% [5]. - The price of natural rubber raw materials is running strongly. The inventory in Qingdao area has increased slightly. The price of butadiene, the raw material for butadiene rubber, has risen slightly. The inventory of butadiene rubber factories has decreased slightly. The operating rate of tire enterprises has increased [5]. - This week, the rubber futures market showed a unilateral upward trend. The "anti - involution" theme led by "polysilicon" continued to strengthen, driving the bullish sentiment in the commodity market. The development of new energy vehicles is gradually replacing the market share of traditional fuel vehicles, and the demand for tires remains resilient. The price of glue at home and abroad has increased this week. Affected by rainy weather, rubber tapping is difficult, and the raw material price is strong, providing cost support for rubber. The inventory in Qingdao Bonded Area has changed from decreasing to increasing, and the general trade inventory continues to accumulate. The downstream tire market mainly consumes inventory, and the terminal demand is limited. The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises has increased but has not reached the level of the same period last year, and the room for improvement is limited. In general, in the short term, the rubber futures market mainly fluctuates with external macro - emotions, the internal fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and it operates strongly in a range [5]. Multi - empty Focus Bullish Factors - The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has rebounded [8]. - Weather disturbances have strengthened the cost support of natural rubber raw materials [8]. - The sentiment of "anti - involution" varieties continues [8]. Bearish Factors - The inventory is at a relatively high level [8]. Data Analysis - As of July 17, the price of fresh glue in Thailand was 54.5 Thai baht/kg, the cup lump price was 48.55 Thai baht/kg, the glue price in Yunnan, China was 13,600 yuan/ton, and the glue price in Hainan was 13,000 yuan/ton. Affected by rainy weather, rubber tapping is difficult, and the raw material price is strong, providing cost support for rubber [9]. - As of the week of July 11, the spot inventory in Qingdao Bonded Area was 78,978 tons, an increase of 201 tons; the general trade spot inventory was 557,405 tons, an increase of 3,805 tons. The inventory in Qingdao Bonded Area has changed from decreasing to increasing, and the general trade inventory continues to accumulate, with the overall inventory rising slightly [11]. - This week, the domestic butadiene market showed a strong shock, and the weekly average price increased slightly month - on - month. The downstream industry has good operating conditions, and the supply side has no obvious pressure. As of July 17, the delivery price in the central Shandong region was about 9,400 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was 9,150 - 9,200 yuan/ton. As of the week of July 18, 2025, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 349.5714 yuan/ton, and the strong raw material price affected the profits of production enterprises [13]. - As of the week of July 18, the in - factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 15,650 tons, a decrease of 850 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 6,600 tons, an increase of 330 tons from last week. Recently, the downstream inventory has been replenished, and the in - factory inventory has decreased [15]. - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 61.98%, an increase of 0.87% from last week and an increase of 3.92% from the same period last year. The in - factory inventory available days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.85 days, an increase of 0.18 days from last week and a decrease of 5 days from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires was 68.13%, an increase of 2.34% from last week and a decrease of 11.96% from the same period last year. The in - factory inventory available days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.18 days, an increase of 0.42 days from last week and an increase of 11.33 days from the same period last year. The market mainly consumes inventory, and the terminal demand is limited. The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises has increased but has not reached the level of the same period last year, and the room for improvement is limited [17]. - As of July 17, the spread of the September "RU - NR" contract was strongly oscillating, and the spread of the September "NR - BR" contract was oscillating within a range [20]. Market Outlook - This week, the "anti - involution" theme led by "polysilicon" continued to strengthen, driving the bullish sentiment in the commodity market. - Fundamentally, the price of glue at home and abroad has increased this week. Affected by rainy weather, rubber tapping is difficult, and the raw material price is strong, providing cost support for rubber. The inventory in Qingdao Bonded Area has changed from decreasing to increasing, and the general trade inventory continues to accumulate. The downstream tire market mainly consumes inventory, and the terminal demand is limited. The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises has increased but has not reached the level of the same period last year, and the room for improvement is limited. - In general, in the short term, the rubber futures market mainly fluctuates with external macro - emotions, the internal fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and it operates strongly in a range [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - This week, the asphalt fundamentals showed characteristics of increasing supply and weak demand. The supply side saw a week - on - week increase in weekly output and operating rate, while the demand side had a slight increase in shipment volume. The factory inventory decreased slightly, ending the two - week inventory accumulation trend, indicating an increase in traders' willingness to purchase. However, the social inventory increased, and the current asphalt social inventory remains at a high level, with demand awaiting further improvement. - The crude oil market currently lacks obvious drivers, and short - term fluctuations are dominated by news. The EU's sanctions on Russia and the reduction of the price cap on Russian oil are bullish in the short - term sentiment, but have limited impact in the medium - to - long - term. It is expected that the oil price will continue to fluctuate strongly. - Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of asphalt is not prominent, and the futures price mainly fluctuates around crude oil. It is recommended to track geopolitical changes and pay attention to the matching degree between refinery production scheduling and the progress of terminal project construction. It is also suggested to focus on the BU2509 contract in the range of 3,580 - 3,750 yuan/ton [7][69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Abstract - Market focus includes Trump's "major statement" on Russia, OPEC maintaining the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast, and IEA raising the 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast while lowering the demand growth forecast [6]. - Key data: As of July 16, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 32.8%, up 1 percentage point from the previous statistical period. As of July 18, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 572,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 761,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week; the social inventory of domestic asphalt was 1.319 million tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous week [7]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt include marginal improvement in supply - demand and low inventory levels; bearish factors include a cease - fire agreement between Israel and other parties and high supply levels [10]. 3.3 Macro Analysis - **Tariff negotiations**: The progress of US tariff negotiations is slow and uncertain. Trump said the US is close to reaching a trade agreement with India and may reach an agreement with Europe, but it's too early to say about Canada. The US - Japan tariff negotiation has no progress, and the US may maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods. The EU - US tariff negotiation has major differences, with core issues such as automobile and agricultural tariffs remaining unresolved [11]. - **Firing Powell incident**: Trump hopes that Fed Chairman Powell will resign, which may trigger investors' doubts about the Fed's independence and lead to the selling of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds [12]. - **Fed's "Beige Book"**: The overall sentiment is pessimistic. All 12 regions in the US reported price increases, and enterprises generally felt the cost pressure related to tariffs. The economic outlook is "neutral to slightly pessimistic", and it is speculated that the Fed will continue to "stand still" [12]. - **OPEC and IEA monthly reports**: OPEC maintained the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. It also maintained the economic growth forecasts for this year and next year. IEA raised the 2025 global oil supply growth forecast from 1.8 million barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day and lowered the 2025 average oil demand growth forecast from 720,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day [13]. 3.4 Data Analysis - **Supply**: As of July 18, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 572,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous week. As of July 16, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 32.8%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous statistical period, with significant increases in South China and Shandong. The increase in refinery operating rate was due to a decrease in maintenance plans [14][22]. - **Demand**: As of July 18, the weekly shipment volume of domestic asphalt was 414,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from the previous week. The weekly shipment volume rebounded and was at a high level this year. The capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 14.55%, up 0.17 percentage points from the previous week [25][28]. - **Import and export**: In May, domestic asphalt imports were 397,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116,100 tons (41.3% increase), and a year - on - year decrease of 61,300 tons (13.37% decrease). The cumulative imports from January to April were 1.3492 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.03%. In May, domestic asphalt exports were 55,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,300 tons. The cumulative exports from January to April were 249,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 59.62% [37][44]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 761,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,600 tons, with a large decrease in Shandong. The social inventory was 1.319 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 tons. Except for the northwest region, there was a slight inventory increase in other regions [53][60]. - **Spread**: As of July 18, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing and dilution was - 524.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 46.3 yuan/ton. As of July 16, the asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio was 55.41, and as of July 17, the asphalt basis was 107 yuan/ton. The asphalt cracking spread rebounded this week, mainly due to the weak operation of crude oil prices [67]. 4.后市研判 - The asphalt supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the futures price mainly fluctuates around crude oil. It is recommended to track geopolitical changes, pay attention to the matching degree between refinery production scheduling and the progress of terminal project construction, and focus on the BU2509 contract in the range of 3,580 - 3,750 yuan/ton [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile trend, but investors need to be wary of risks brought by subsequent tariffs [5][65]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Summary - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 7,000 to 221,000, reaching the lowest level since mid - April, indicating the resilience of the employment market [5]. - In June, the US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, better than expected, alleviating concerns about consumer spending contraction [5]. - The US CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than market expectations [5]. - Domestically, the GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year - on - year. In June, industrial production was strong while demand was weak. The production of refined copper in the second quarter is expected to increase [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: Domestic TC maintains a low and weak quotation; US retail sales in June are better than expected; the spot has changed from a discount to a premium [8]. - **Bearish factors**: The tight inventory situation in non - US regions has eased; LME copper inventory continues to rise [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Copper ore imports**: In June, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.35 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 14.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. Chile's copper exports to China have rebounded [18]. - **Mining end**: As of the week of July 11, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 43.31 dollars/dry ton, up 0.12 dollars/dry ton from the previous week. The spot market is expected to remain stable [22]. - **Electrolytic copper production**: In May, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1417 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 16.33%. The production in June is expected to remain high [24]. - **Waste copper imports**: In May, China's waste copper imports were 185,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.53%. The supply from major countries has declined [27]. - **Refined - waste price difference**: As of July 17, the refined - waste price difference was around - 1,075 yuan/ton, which is conducive to refined copper consumption [31]. - **Copper product production**: In June, the production of refined copper rods decreased, the production of copper strips decreased, the production of copper materials increased, the production of household refrigerators increased, and the export of automobiles maintained a high growth rate [35][39][43][46][50]. - **Real estate market**: From January to June, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, with declines in new construction and completion areas [54]. - **Copper inventory**: LME copper inventory has accumulated, with the latest level at 122,150 tons. SHFE copper inventory decreased slightly to 81,462 tons in the week of July 11. COMEX inventory has continued to accumulate, reaching 241,814 tons. Domestic spot inventory increased to 144,400 tons on July 17 [58]. - **Copper spot premium**: On July 17, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper spot changed from a discount to a premium of about 85 yuan/ton, while the LME 0 - 3 spot discount widened to about - 58.71 dollars/ton [62]. 3.4后市研判 - The copper price will maintain a volatile trend, but risks from subsequent tariffs should be watched out for [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current low inventory of aluminum keeps the price from significant decline, with support at the 20,000 integer level [5][57]. - The economic reality in the US remains strong, but whether the upside space can be opened requires preventive interest - rate cuts. Attention should be paid to inflation clues and tariff impacts [11]. - In China, the economy showed marginal weakness in June, and it is recommended to focus on the long - term policy framework transformation [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US initial jobless claims decreased by 7,000 to 221,000 last week, reaching the lowest level since mid - April, indicating a resilient job market. US retail sales in June rebounded strongly, with a 0.6% month - on - month increase [11]. - US CPI in June was in line with market expectations, while core CPI was lower than expected, starting to reflect the tariff's impact on the retail end [11]. - Domestically, the production capacity of the domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting industry changed little, with a slight increase in output. The demand side was affected by the seasonal consumption off - season and high aluminum prices, and the operating rate of downstream industries declined [5]. - The visible inventory of aluminum remained at a low level. As of July 17, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 471,000 tons, 12,000 tons less than on Monday [5][50]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - The overall output of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated little, and the visible inventory remained at a low level. The spot changed from a discount to a premium [8]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - The operating rate in the aluminum processing sector continued to decline, and macro - sentiment uncertainty still existed [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 Domestic Ore - From January to May 2025, the domestic ore output was 25.2 million tons, with a theoretical expected increase of 3.3 million tons to 61.3 million tons for the year, only meeting about 28% of domestic alumina raw material demand [17]. 3.3.2 Ore Price - Since the beginning of this year, the import price of bauxite has been continuously lowered. In June 2025, China's aluminum ore imports were 18.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.2% [21]. 3.3.3 Alumina - The alumina price has been adjusted upwards recently. With the increase in supply, the short - term spot price is stable. The output of alumina continues to rise, and the supply surplus is expected to be strong [24]. 3.3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - In May 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The current operating capacity is about 44.15 million tons, and the subsequent increase is limited [28]. 3.3.5 Aluminum Demand - In June 2025, China's aluminum product output was 5.874 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%. From January to June, the output was 32.768 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Domestic aluminum product exports declined year - on - year, but demand from the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle sectors increased significantly [31]. 3.3.6 Downstream Operating Rate - Affected by high aluminum prices and the deepening off - season, the average operating rate of processing enterprises decreased by 0.1% to 58.6% this week [35]. 3.3.7 Real Estate - From January to June, national real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. The construction area, new construction area, and completion area all declined [39]. 3.3.8 Automobile - In June, China's automobile exports reached 592,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 22.2%. New - energy vehicle exports were 205,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 140% [43]. 3.3.9 Inventory - Last week, LME aluminum inventory increased, and SHFE aluminum inventory also increased. As of July 17, the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 471,000 tons, 12,000 tons less than on Monday [47][50]. 3.3.10 Price Premium - On July 17, the average price of aluminum in Shanghai Wumaomao changed from a discount to a premium of 110 yuan/ton, while the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium widened [54]. 3.4后市研判 - The price of Shanghai aluminum is difficult to decline significantly under the current low - inventory situation, with support at the 20,000 integer level [57].

Group 1: Report Summary - As of July 15, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 58.89%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.09 percentage points. Non - housing project capital availability rate was 60.37%, down 0.09 percentage points week - on - week, and housing project capital availability rate was 51.68%, down 0.08 percentage points week - on - week [5] - This week, the double - coking futures continued the upward trend of last week, but the momentum slowed down. Coking coal inventory continued to decline, reducing inventory pressure and releasing price elasticity. The "anti - involution" theme led by "polysilicon" strengthened, driving the recovery of the commodity bullish atmosphere. The supply - side reform focus shifted to new energy industries, and the impact on the black series was expected to be limited. Coke enterprises replenished coking coal inventory, while steel mills were more cautious [6] Group 2: Market Focus - From July 14 - 15, the Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing, emphasizing the shift from "large - scale incremental expansion" to "stock quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" in urban development [7] - The China National Coal Association held a symposium on the coal economic operation in the first half of the year, emphasizing safety, scientific production, supply quality improvement, and market balance [7] - Coking coal production in China continued to resume, and the closure of Mongolian coal ports ended. Coking coal inventory decreased significantly, coke enterprises replenished raw materials and coke inventory continued to decline, steel mills' raw material replenishment was limited, coke production changed little, iron - water production rebounded, and a new round of coke price increase was implemented [7] Group 3: Bull - Bear Focus - Bullish factors include coke enterprises' concentrated replenishment, obvious decline in coking coal inventory, supply - side reform leading to supply contraction expectations, and the rebound of iron - water production [10] - Bearish factors include the seasonal off - season of steel, limited downstream demand, and the expected increase in Mongolian coal imports after the port closure ended [10] Group 4: Data Analysis - The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.07%, up 0.55% from last week, and the daily average clean coal output was 77.04 tons, an increase of 0.54 tons. The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 62.85%, up 0.53% from last week, and the daily output was 53.375 tons, an increase of 0.79 tons. The three major ports resumed customs clearance on July 16, but the customs clearance was expected to remain low until July 21 due to the Naadam Festival in Mongolia [13] - As of the week of July 18, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 339.07 tons, a decrease of 38.11 tons from last week; the clean coal inventory of 110 sample coal washing plants was 191.54 tons, a decrease of 5.53 tons; and the port inventory was 321.5 tons, a decrease of 0.14 tons [16] - As of July 18, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 929.11 tons, an increase of 36.76 tons, and the inventory - available days were 10.88 days, an increase of 0.41 days. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 87.55 tons, a decrease of 5.53 tons [19] - As of July 18, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 791.1 tons, an increase of 8.17 tons, and the inventory - available days were 12.63 days, an increase of 0.15 days. The coke inventory was 638.99 tons, an increase of 1.19 tons, and the available days were 11.46 days, a decrease of 0.18 days [23] - As of July 18, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.01%, an increase of 0.14% from the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 64.21 tons, an increase of 0.13 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 86.84%, a decrease of 0.18% from the previous period, and the daily coke output was 47.09 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons [25] - As of the week of July 18, China's coke consumption was 109.1 tons, an increase of 1.19 tons. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel enterprises was 242.44 tons, an increase of 2.63 tons, and the blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, an increase of 0.31% from last week [27] - As of the week of July 18, the average loss per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 43 yuan/ton, which was improved compared with last week. On July 17, the mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong raised the coke purchase price, with dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton and wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton [29] - The spot and futures prices of double - coking rose in resonance [31] Group 5: Market Outlook - Coking coal inventory continued to decline, reducing inventory pressure and releasing price elasticity. The "anti - involution" theme led by "polysilicon" strengthened, driving the recovery of the commodity bullish atmosphere. The impact of supply - side reform on the black series was expected to be limited. The driving force for price increase was expected to slow down as supply and demand re - balanced. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of Mongolian coal imports on prices after the port re - opened [34] - A new round of coke price increase was implemented. With the support of coking coal costs, the game between steel and coke enterprises intensified, and there was still an expectation of further price increases. The coke futures followed the coking coal futures [37]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's latest meeting minutes show differences among members regarding future prospects, mainly due to different expectations of tax impacts on inflation. The initial jobless claims in the US have decreased for four consecutive weeks, reaching the lowest level in two months, while continuing claims remain at the highest level since the end of last year. Some Fed officials believe that two interest rate cuts within the year are most likely, and the impact of tariffs on prices is milder than expected, boosting market risk appetite. Domestically, tin smelters face raw material supply pressure, with the resumption of production in the Wa State of Myanmar still uncertain. Recently, tin prices have adjusted, and smelters are holding firm on prices, with few transactions. Traders' quotes follow the market, and the willingness of downstream buyers to take delivery has increased, with overall market trading performing well. Tin prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Report Summary - The Fed's meeting minutes reveal differences among members on future prospects, mainly due to different inflation expectations influenced by taxes. US initial jobless claims have dropped for four consecutive weeks, hitting a two - month low, while continuing claims are at a high since late last year. Some Fed officials see two potential rate cuts this year, and tariff impacts on prices are milder than expected, enhancing market risk preference. Domestically, tin smelters face raw material supply pressure, and the resumption in Myanmar's Wa State is uncertain. Tin prices have adjusted, smelters are holding prices, and trading is sluggish. Traders' quotes follow the market, and downstream buying interest has increased, with overall trading performing well [5]. Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: The resumption rhythm of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is still uncertain; overseas inventories have declined; the US dollar index remains at a low level [7]. - Bearish factors: The consumer end is in the industry's off - season, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules has significantly decreased [7]. Data Analysis - **Supply and demand balance**: In April 2025, global refined tin production was 29,800 tons, consumption was 30,400 tons, with a supply shortage of 600 tons. From January to April 2025, production was 119,400 tons, consumption was 111,700 tons, with a supply surplus of 7,700 tons. In April 2025, global tin ore production was 27,600 tons, and from January to April, it was 103,700 tons [9]. - **Price and basis**: This week, tin futures prices remained volatile. The basis of Shanghai tin was - 1,810 yuan/ton, changing from premium to discount; the LME tin premium was 22.21 dollars/ton, changing from discount to premium [12]. - **Smelter operating rate**: Recently, the weekly operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have been slightly rising. As of this week, the combined operating rate of the two provinces reached 53.97%. Yunnan smelters face tight tin ore supply, and although the operating rate rose slightly by 4.13% this week, it is still far below the level in Q4 2024. Jiangxi smelters rely on waste tin recycling, but poor terminal consumption has led to a decline in recycling volume and increased production costs. It is expected that the operating rates of smelters in the two regions will remain low in July [15]. - **Import data**: In May 2025, China's tin ore imports were 13,400 tons (equivalent to about 6,518 metal tons), a month - on - month increase of 36.39% and a year - on - year increase of 59.84%. From January to May, the cumulative import volume was 50,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51%. In May, China's tin ingot imports were 2,076 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.04% and a year - on - year increase of 225.9%. From January to May, the cumulative import volume was 9,584 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. In May, refined tin exports were 1,770 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.19%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 9,584 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.48%, with imports and exports basically balanced [18][24]. - **Production data**: In May 2025, domestic refined tin production was 14,670 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.34%. From January to May, the cumulative production was 72,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.75%. It is expected that in June 2025, domestic refined tin production will be around 13,800 tons [21]. - **Automobile industry data**: In June 2025, China's new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.4% and 26.7%. From January to June, production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%. In June, China's total automobile exports were 592,000, a month - on - month increase of 7.4% and a year - on - year increase of 22.2% [27]. - **Solder industry data**: In May, the solder operating rate was 72.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1%. The operating rates of large, medium, and small solder enterprises all decreased [30]. - **Inventory data**: The latest LME tin inventory is 2,015 tons, reaching the lowest level in nearly two years. As of the week of July 4, Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory increased by 3.49% to 7,198 tons [34]. 后市研判 - Tin prices will maintain a volatile pattern [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices showed an overall oscillating and strengthening trend, driven by the expected improvement in the supply - demand structure. The market has basically priced in OPEC+ production increases, and the actual increase is far lower than planned. Meanwhile, the traditional gasoline consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere in the third quarter has led to rising refinery operating rates and increased crude oil consumption. The "strong reality, weak expectation" fundamental pattern of crude oil will support the strengthening of near - month contracts, and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut will repair market risk appetite. It is expected that oil prices will continue the oscillating and strengthening trend in the short term [8][52] - It is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $64 - 69 per barrel [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Abstract - Market focus: OPEC+ unexpectedly expanded production increases, with a planned 548,000 barrels per day increase in September. Kazakhstan plans to maintain oil production at the current level until the end of the year [7] - Key data: As of the week ending July 4, the EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 464,000 barrels (previous value - 1.493 million barrels); EIA crude oil inventory was 7.07 million barrels (expected - 2.071 million barrels, previous value 3.845 million barrels); EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 238,000 barrels (previous value 239,000 barrels) [7] 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: Expected demand improvement, geopolitical uncertainty [12] - Bearish factors: Expectation of OPEC+ continued production increase, uncertainty of tariff policy [12] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The US postponed the effective date of reciprocal tariffs to August 1. It will impose a 25% tariff on Japanese and South Korean products from August 1, 2025, and a 35% tariff on Canadian goods from the same date. It will also impose a 50% tariff on imported copper from August 1, 2025 [13] - The Fed's internal differences are significant, and the pace of interest rate cuts is uncertain. Most officials believe that tariff policies may have a more lasting impact on inflation. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December 2025, and in March and June 2026 [14] - OPEC maintained the expected growth of global crude oil demand and economic growth, and lowered the forecast of US and other non - OPEC+ oil supply growth in 2026. IEA raised the forecast of global oil supply growth and lowered the forecast of oil demand growth, maintaining the expectation of crude oil supply surplus [15] 3.4 Data Analysis Supply - On July 5, eight OPEC+ member countries announced a production increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. The market has basically priced in the increase, and the impact is relatively limited [16] - As of the week ending July 4, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels to 13.385 million barrels per day, and is expected to remain low due to profit pressure [18] - As of the week ending July 4, the total number of US oil rigs was 425, a decrease of 7 from the previous period. The number of rigs has been declining since April and is expected to remain low [20] Demand - As of the week ending July 4, US crude oil implied demand decreased by 1.415 million barrels per day week - on - week, while gasoline production implied demand increased by 3.7782 million barrels per day week - on - week, indicating a temporary weakening of crude oil consumption and a continued improvement in refined oil consumption [27] - As of the week ending July 4, the US refinery operating rate was 94.7%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous period. It is expected to remain stable [28] - As of July 10, the operating rate of domestic major refineries in China was 81.47%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous period, and that of local independent refineries was 58.02%, up 0.77 percentage points. Major refineries are expected to maintain an upward trend, while local refineries are expected to remain stable [34] - As of July 11, the comprehensive refining profit of domestic major refineries was 1,020.78 yuan/ton, down 112.75 yuan/ton from the previous period, and that of local independent refineries was 365.34 yuan/ton, down 70.54 yuan/ton. High profits will stimulate the operating rate of major refineries [38] Inventory - As of the week ending July 4, the US EIA crude oil inventory was 7.07 million barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 238,000 barrels. Crude oil inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks, and strategic inventory is being replenished. It is expected to remain low [43] - As of the week ending July 4, the EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 464,000 barrels, and the EIA gasoline inventory as of the week ending June 6 was 229.46 million barrels, a decrease of 2.658 million barrels from the previous period [48] Crack Spread - As of July 9, the US crude oil crack spread was $20.16 per barrel, showing a slight week - on - week decline but ending the previous downward trend, reflecting the recovery of US gasoline consumption [49] 3.5 Future Market Outlook - The short - term oil price is expected to continue the oscillating and strengthening trend, supported by the "strong reality, weak expectation" fundamental pattern of crude oil and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [52]

Group 1: Report Summary - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes show differences among members regarding the outlook, mainly due to concerns about the impact of tariffs on inflation [4]. - US initial jobless claims reached a four - week low, while continuing claims remained at the highest level since the end of 2021 [4]. - Some Federal Reserve officials believe there may be two interest rate cuts this year, and the impact of tariffs on prices is milder than expected, boosting market risk appetite [4]. - In the zinc market, smelting fees are relatively wide, zinc mine production is abundant, and new projects have started production, with zinc ingot output exceeding expectations [4]. - In the lead market, refined lead supply remains tight, with more maintenance in electrolytic lead smelting enterprises, and the traditional consumption season is gradually starting [4]. Group 2: Bull - Bear Focus Zinc - Bullish factors: The US dollar index remains low, and there are short - term fluctuations in smelting maintenance [7]. - Bearish factors: Zinc ingot production in June increased more than expected, and the overall inventory build - up expectation is stronger [7]. Lead - Bullish factors: Secondary lead cost support, rising prices of waste batteries, and the gradual start of the traditional consumption season [10]. - Bearish factors: The actual restocking strength of downstream is relatively limited [10]. Group 3: Data Analysis Zinc - In May 2025, China's zinc ore sand and concentrate imports were 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28%. Imported zinc ore processing fees are showing a rebound [12]. - In June, the average domestic zinc concentrate TC increased by 150 yuan/metal ton to 3,650 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported ore TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton to 55 dollars/dry ton [15]. - Zinc concentrate prices declined slightly. The price of 50% zinc concentrate in Hechi was 17,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week; in Chenzhou, it was 17,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton from last week [20]. - In May 2025, China's zinc production was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. In June, new capacity was released in some areas, and some previous maintenance enterprises resumed production [23]. - In May 2025, China's refined zinc imports were 26,716.511 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.85% [26]. - LME zinc inventory has been declining, and as of last week, it was 105,600 tons. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 3.97% to 45,364 tons in the week of July 4 [33]. Lead - In June, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 26.4% and 26.7%. In June, China's total automobile exports were 592,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 22.2% [30]. - From January to May, China's real estate development investment cumulative year - on - year growth rate was - 10.7%, and the new construction area cumulative year - on - year growth rate was - 22.8% [30]. - This week, the lead futures and spot prices continued to rise, with a basis of 25 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread weakened [37]. - The weekly price of 60% lead concentrate in Kunming increased by 125 yuan/ton, and in Baoji, it increased by 34 yuan/ton [41]. - As of July 4, the lead concentrate processing fee in Jiyuan was 800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week; in Chenzhou, it was 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton; in Gejiu, it was 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton [41]. - In May 2025, China's lead production was 649,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7%. In June, more electrolytic lead smelting enterprises had maintenance, and some secondary lead smelters had a recovery expectation [44]. - The primary lead operating rate increased to 68.46% month - on - month [47]. - The secondary lead enterprise operating rate increased by 0.20 percentage points to 34.8% month - on - month [49]. - The lead - acid battery operating rate increased by 3.06 percentage points to 71.83% month - on - month [52]. - As of July 10, LME lead inventory decreased to 252,375 tons. SHFE lead inventory increased by 2.65% to 53,303 tons in the week of July 4 [56]. Group 4: Market Outlook - For zinc, it is recommended to mainly operate in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 [59]. - For lead, it is recommended to operate in the range of 16,500 - 17,500 [59].