1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - After the holiday, the supply of domestic coking coal decreased slightly, the mine end accumulated a small amount of inventory, and the inventory of sample coal washing plants decreased significantly. The overall upstream inventory pressure is not large. With limited domestic supply increase after the holiday, Mongolian coal will make up for the supply, and the overall supply - demand is relatively balanced. The coking coal futures market is significantly affected by external macro - sentiment, and its fundamental driving force is limited. The short - term price has support below, and the upward space needs macro - and micro - resonance [6][35]. - Supported by coking coal costs, the first round of coke price increase was implemented on October 1st, improving the profitability of coke enterprises compared to before the holiday. However, the high - level fluctuations of raw material prices erode steel enterprises' profits, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises, and suppressing the upward space of coke enterprises' per - ton profit. Currently, the inventory pressure of independent coke enterprises has been significantly reduced. With the improvement of the inventory structure, the influence of the cost side increases, and the coke futures market follows the coking coal market [6][38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Market Focus: The US will impose new port fees on three types of China - related ships from October 14th; the EU plans to cut the steel import quota eligible for tariff exemption and raise the steel tariff from 25% to 50%; China's relevant departments will guide the assessment of industry average costs to maintain market price order; 22 central safety inspection teams will conduct inspections in 31 provincial - level regions in November; a coal mine in Shaanxi has fully resumed production [6]. - Fundamental Overview: Domestic coking coal supply decreased slightly; upstream coking coal inventory pressure is not large; independent coke enterprises reduced coking coal inventory, and steel mills' raw material inventory decreased slightly; overall coke production was stable; hot metal production remained at a high level, supporting coke consumption; a new round of coke price increase was implemented [6]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - Bullish Factors: Reduced coking coal inventory pressure; high hot metal production supporting coke demand; environmental and safety inspections in autumn and winter affecting coal supply expectations [9]. - Bearish Factors: Recovery of Mongolian coal imports; low enthusiasm of steel mills for replenishing inventory; suppressed profitability of steel mills [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Domestic Coking Coal Supply: During the National Day holiday, the开工 rate and daily output of 523 sample mines and 314 sample coal washing plants decreased. Before the holiday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was at a high level. With limited domestic supply increase, Mongolian coal makes up for the supply [14]. - Coking Coal Upstream Inventory: As of October 10th, 523 sample mines' clean coal inventory increased, 314 sample coal washing plants' clean coal inventory decreased, and port coking coal inventory remained unchanged. The overall upstream inventory pressure is not large [17]. - Independent Coke Enterprises' Coking Coal Inventory: As of October 10th, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises decreased, and the inventory - available days decreased. The coke inventory increased slightly [20]. - Steel Mills' Raw Material Inventory: As of October 10th, the coking coal and coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased, and the inventory - available days decreased [24]. - Coke Production: As of October 10th, the capacity utilization rate and daily output of all - sample independent coking enterprises were relatively stable, while those of 247 steel enterprises decreased slightly. Overall coke production remained stable [26]. - Coke Consumption: As of the week of October 10th, China's coke consumption and 247 steel enterprises' hot metal daily output decreased slightly. Hot metal production remained at a high level, supporting coke demand [28]. - Coke Price Increase: As of October 9th, the average per - ton profit of 30 independent coking plants was 9 yuan/ton. The first - round coke price increase was implemented on October 1st, improving the profitability of coke enterprises. As of the week of October 10th, the profitability of 247 steel enterprises decreased, and the game between steel and coke enterprises intensified [30]. - Basis Structure of Coking Coal and Coke Futures: The spot and futures prices of coking coal and coke maintained a volatile trend [32]. 3.4后市研判 - Coking Coal: After the holiday, the supply - demand of coking coal is relatively balanced. The futures market is affected by macro - sentiment, and the fundamental driving force is limited. Future attention should be paid to the increase in upstream supply, downstream demand, and the impact of important domestic meetings in October [35]. - Coke: The first - round price increase improved the profitability of coke enterprises, but the game between steel and coke enterprises intensified, suppressing the profit space of coke enterprises. The coke futures market follows the coking coal market [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rubber's own fundamental factors have limited driving force on the market, and the market mainly fluctuates within a range. The follow - up should focus on the impact of weather factors on the increase of rubber tapping volume [6][25]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: ANRPC's August 2025 report predicts that global natural rubber production in August will drop 0.7% to 1.379 million tons, up 3.8% from the previous month; consumption will drop 1% to 1.256 million tons, up 0.8% from the previous month. In the first 8 months, cumulative production will slightly drop 0.03% to 8.856 million tons, and cumulative consumption will drop 0.6% to 10.146 million tons. In 2025, global natural rubber production is expected to increase 0.5% to 14.892 million tons, and consumption is expected to increase 1.3% to 15.565 million tons. During October 8 - 14, 2025, rainfall in Southeast Asian main producing areas of natural rubber increased compared with the previous period. After the holiday, the rubber market fluctuated with external macro - emotions, and its own fundamentals had limited driving force. The rubber price was relatively firm after the National Day holiday, with cost support due to rainfall in main producing areas. Inventory continued to decline, but downstream demand dragged down the fundamentals [6]. - **Fundamental Overview**: Natural rubber raw material prices are relatively firm, and it continues to have a small - scale inventory reduction. The price of butadiene, the raw material of butadiene rubber, is running weakly, and the inventory reduction of butadiene rubber is not smooth. The overall production capacity utilization rate of tires decreased during the National Day holiday [7]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Rubber raw material prices are stable, providing cost support, and the inventory pressure of natural rubber is not obvious [10]. - **Bearish Factors**: The overall tire operating rate decreased due to the holiday, and the inventory reduction of butadiene rubber is not smooth [10]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Raw Material Price**: As of October 9, the price of Thai raw material glue was 53.9 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 50.7 Thai baht/kg. The price of Yunnan glue for producing whole - milk rubber was 13,900 yuan/ton, and for producing concentrated latex was 14,100 yuan/ton. The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Hainan glue for producing whole - milk rubber was 14,500 yuan/ton, and for producing concentrated latex was 15,700 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inventory**: As of September 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.088 million tons, a 1.4% decrease from the previous month. The total inventory of bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 456,500 tons, a 1.01% decrease from the previous period. As of the week of October 10, the production capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was 74.69%, up 4.15% from before the holiday. The in - factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,600 tons, and the trader inventory was 5,700 tons, both unchanged from before the holiday [14][18]. - **Raw Material Price of Butadiene Rubber**: After the National Day, the domestic butadiene market declined slightly. As of the week of October 10, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 167 yuan/ton, and the theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber enterprises was slightly repaired [15]. - **Tire Production Capacity Utilization**: As of the week of October 10, the production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a 13.83% increase from the previous period and a 0.78% decrease year - on - year. The average inventory available days of sample enterprises was 39.87 days. The production capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a 17.5% decrease from the previous period and a 36.62% decrease year - on - year. The in - factory inventory available days of sample enterprises was 45.7 days [19]. - **Contract Spread**: As of October 9, the spread of the "RU - NR" January contract slightly shrank, and the spread of the "NR - BR" main contract slightly strengthened [21]. 3.4 Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: The domestic financial market digested holiday events. After the Hamas announced a permanent cease - fire, the geopolitical disturbance cooled down, the risk - aversion sentiment declined, and the domestic stock market was affected [25]. - **Fundamental - aspect**: After the National Day holiday, the rubber price was relatively firm, with cost support due to rainfall in main producing areas. The inventory continued to decline, but downstream demand dragged down the fundamentals. The production capacity utilization rate of tires will gradually recover after the holiday, but the subsequent recovery space is limited [25].

原油周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2025-10-10 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 04 后市研判 多空P焦AR点T 02 多空因素分析（原油） | 多方因素 | 空方因素 | | --- | --- | | 地缘政治的不确定性 | 以色列与哈马斯达成加沙停火协议 | | | OPEC+增产加速落地 | 报告P摘AR要T 01 （1）以色列与哈马斯达成加沙停火协议。 （2）OPEC+延续增产措施，11月份增产13.7万桶/日。 （3）美联储9月份议息会议纪要公布，美联储内部官员关于年内降息幅度存在分歧。 市场焦点 重点数据 （1）美国至10月3日当周EIA原油库存增加371.5万桶，预期为增加188.5万桶，前值为增加179.2万桶。 （2）美国至10月3日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 -76.3万桶，前值-27.1万桶。 （3）美国至10月3日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 28.5万桶，前值74.2万桶。 主要观点 近期原油在地缘及OPEC+增产预期的双重影响下先涨后跌，乌克兰加大对俄罗斯基础能源设施袭 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain high, which may suppress consumption and pose a risk of adjustment and decline. In the medium - term, the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [5][62]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US employment data showed an unexpected decline, far lower than market expectations, which may lead the Federal Reserve to implement further monetary easing policies [5]. - China's manufacturing PMI rose by 0.4 percentage points, non - manufacturing PMI fell by 0.3 percentage points, and the comprehensive PMI output index rose by 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight acceleration in overall economic output expansion [5]. - The US government "shutdown" increased overseas macro - uncertainty, and the release of economic data was delayed, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to make accurate monetary policies [5]. - Due to the mud accident at the Indonesian mine, copper supply was disrupted. Domestic smelters were in a high - maintenance period, and refined copper production was expected to decline, but inventory would increase [5]. - High copper prices may suppress consumption in the short - term, but in the medium - term, copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Refined copper production is expected to decline, and the copper concentrate processing fee remains low, indicating tight supply at the mine end [8]. - **Bearish Factors**: Social inventory is accumulating, high copper prices may suppress consumption, and overseas macro - uncertainty has increased [8]. - Overseas political fluctuations have increased, further strengthening the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Copper Ore Imports**: In August, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.759 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August were 20.054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [20]. - **Copper Concentrate TC**: As of the week of September 26, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.68 US dollars per dry ton, up 0.66 US dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The mud accident at the Indonesian mine increased market concerns about copper supply [24]. - **Refined Copper Supply**: In August, China's refined copper output was 1.301 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. In October, domestic smelters will conduct large - scale maintenance, which may lead to a phased tightening of refined copper supply [28]. - **Scrap Copper Imports**: In August, China's scrap copper imports were 179,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. The decline was due to factors such as import losses, extreme weather, and reduced overseas exports [32]. - **Copper Products Output**: In August, China's copper products output was 2.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8% and a month - on - month increase of 2%, reaching a high level in the same period over the years [36]. - **Copper Consumption**: The price of refined copper spot has risen significantly, which is not conducive to refined copper consumption. As of October 9, the refined - scrap spread was around 390 yuan per ton [40]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory continued to decline last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3.79% in the week of September 30. Domestic social inventory increased, with the electrolytic copper spot inventory reaching 167,900 tons on October 9, an increase of 11,200 tons compared with September 29 [55]. - **Spot Premium**: On October 9, the spot premium of Shanghai Wumaotrade 1 copper changed from discount to premium, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount narrowed [59]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - **Home Appliance Industry**: In August, the output of household refrigerators increased by 2.5% year - on - year, and the output of household air conditioners increased by 9.4% year - on - year. However, in the fourth quarter, the home appliance industry is expected to face pressure of slowing growth [44]. - **Real Estate Industry**: In August, real estate sales, investment, new construction, and completion all declined year - on - year. Although some first - tier cities have introduced policies to support the market, the real estate market is still under pressure, and copper demand in the real estate sector remains weak [48]. - **Automobile Industry**: In August, traditional automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. New energy vehicle production and sales also showed strong growth, with a year - on - year increase of 27.4% and 26.8% respectively, and the market demand is strong [52]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain high, which may suppress consumption and pose a risk of adjustment and decline. In the medium - term, the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [5][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward trend of gold has not ended, and price fluctuations may intensify in the fourth quarter. Before the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in October, gold prices will benefit from the interest rate cut drive. After the cut in October, there will be more market games regarding interest rate cut expectations, Sino - US relations, and geopolitics, which may increase price volatility [6]. - Interest rate cut trading and a weak US dollar are still favorable for gold prices. The market has strengthened the trading of Fed interest rate cuts, and the Fed expects two more cuts this year. The US dollar will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern, which is beneficial for gold [6]. - Uncertainties in the economy and politics have boosted the safe - haven property of gold. Since August, geopolitical situations such as the suspension of Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the escalation of the Middle - East situation have intensified, and there are also uncertainties in US tariff policies, Fed independence, and fiscal debt, continuously driving up the demand for gold [6]. - Central banks' gold purchases continue, and ETF inflows are accelerating. Central banks around the world have been net buyers of gold for 14 consecutive quarters, and European and American gold ETFs have accelerated their inflows. The People's Bank of China has also increased its gold holdings for 10 consecutive months. However, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict may affect future central bank gold - buying behavior [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 After - market Judgment - Since the third quarter, gold has oscillated strongly and reached new historical highs, mainly driven by the increasing expectation of Fed interest rate cuts. In the fourth quarter, the probability of an interest rate cut by the Fed in October is high, and before that, gold prices will benefit from this. After the cut, price fluctuations may intensify [6]. - Interest rate cut trading and a weak US dollar are positive for gold prices. The Fed's expected two more interest rate cuts this year and the low - level oscillation of the US dollar are favorable factors [6]. - Geopolitical uncertainties such as the suspension of Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the escalation of the Middle - East situation, as well as uncertainties in the US economy and policies, have increased the safe - haven demand for gold [6]. - Central banks' continuous gold purchases and the acceleration of ETF inflows support the rise in gold prices, but the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict may be a risk factor [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - **Employment data**: In August, the US non - farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, far less than the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The non - farm payrolls data for the past two months were revised down by a total of 21,000. The annual non - farm employment from March 2025 was revised down by 911,000, indicating a weakening employment market and strengthening the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts [8]. - **Inflation data**: In August, the US PPI unexpectedly declined, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, the first negative value in four months. The CPI and core CPI data were in line with expectations, and inflation control did not hinder the September interest rate cut [8]. - **Interest rate decision**: On September 17, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%. After the meeting, the probability of a rate cut in October exceeded 90%, and the Fed expected two more cuts this year, although there were differences among members [12]. - **Geopolitical situation**: In the Middle - East, Israeli military air - strikes in Lebanon and the US's veto of the UN Security Council's cease - fire resolution in Palestine - Israel have increased tensions. In Europe, there is a border stand - off between Poland and Russia, and the suspension of Russia - Ukraine peace talks has also added uncertainty. In addition, the risk of a US government shutdown has increased market risks [16][17][18]. - **US dollar trend**: Before September, the US dollar index continued to decline due to the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts. After the Fed meeting, the US dollar rebounded. Overall, it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern, and future trends depend on US economic data, especially employment data [21]. - **Economic performance**: The US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was in line with expectations, while the service and composite PMIs were lower than expected. The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI was below the boom - bust line. The US retail sales and consumer spending were strong, and the second - quarter GDP was revised upwards [25]. 3.3 Fundamental Aspect - **Central bank gold purchases**: In 2023 and 2024, central banks around the world had large - scale gold purchases. In July 2025, global official gold reserves increased by 10 tons, and the People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 10 consecutive months as of August [29]. - **Gold ETF inflows**: In August, global physical gold ETFs had an inflow of $5.5 billion, with North American and European funds being the main drivers. As of September 29, the持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased compared to the end of August [35].

螺矿产业链三季度报告 汪楠 从业资格号：F3069002 投资咨询号：Z0017123 行情回顾 PART 01 （钢材）政策预期提振成本支撑，三季度钢材价格有所改善 中航期货 2025-9-26 目录 01 行情回顾 02 宏观分析 03 供需分析 04 后市研判 7月，铁矿同样受反内卷消息带动，铁矿价格明显上行，突破年内高点。7月下旬以来，阶段性受到反内卷降温的压力，但铁 矿需求始终表现强劲，叠加供应端干扰，铁矿石价格总体震荡偏强运行。 宏观分析 PART 02 国内反内卷驱动黑色价格抬升 7月以来反内卷获得中央财经委指示，后续预期持续加码，我们认为反内卷将持续贯穿十五五规划与执行中，"反内卷"中长期政策预期成为工业 品价格的底部支撑。 7月，受反内卷消息影响，焦煤价格上涨带动整个黑色产业链价格显著上行。 8月，随着反内卷降温，叠加季节性淡季钢材需求偏弱，库存累积，钢价下跌，其中热卷好于螺纹，卷螺差扩张。9月钢价震 荡筑底，海外开启降息周期，国内反内卷再获高层关注，政策预期支撑下钢价有支撑。 行情回顾 PART 01 （铁矿石）政策预期叠加强需求支撑下，三季度矿价走强 7月1日，中央财经委员会第六次会议提 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In Q4, asphalt is expected to continue its wide - range oscillatory trend, mainly due to the game between fundamentals and the cost side. The high production on the supply side will offset the positive support from the improved demand driven by terminal rush - work at the beginning of Q4. Crude oil lacks directional guidance under the dual influence of fundamentals and geopolitics, with OPEC+ production increase and the end of the demand peak season strengthening the expectation of supply surplus in Q4, while geopolitical fluctuations provide intermittent support for oil prices. It is recommended to focus on the BU2512 contract in the range of 3,250 - 3,550 yuan/ton [50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In Q3, asphalt showed an oscillatory and weakening trend under the combined influence of the cost side and fundamentals. The weak operation of crude oil due to OPEC+ production increase weakened cost support, and nationwide heavy rainfall hindered terminal construction, resulting in high social inventory and a lack of upward drive for the market. Overall, asphalt mainly fluctuated with crude oil in Q3 [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Geopolitical Impact**: Frequent geopolitical events caused intermittent disturbances to oil prices. Meetings between the US and Russian presidents, threats of sanctions from the US, suspension of Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and threats of tariff hikes on Russian oil buyers by the US and Europe all affected the oil market. In the future, geopolitics is expected to remain a major influencing factor for oil prices in Q4 [9]. - **OPEC+ Production Policy**: OPEC+ completed a 2.2 million barrels per day production increase one year ahead of schedule in September and initiated a new round of production increase starting in October. The over - expected production increase demonstrated OPEC+'s determination to regain market share. OPEC+ also plans to compensate for 4.779 million barrels per day of excess production by July 2026, with Kazakhstan, Iraq, and Russia having specific compensation plans. However, Kazakhstan's failure to effectively implement production cuts may lead to concerns about an internal price war within OPEC+ [10][12]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: From July to August, domestic asphalt production totaled 5.0346 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9173 million tons. The weekly production in September reached a new high for the year, and the planned production of local refineries in October is expected to increase by 9% month - on - month and 46% year - on - year. The refinery operating rate increased steadily in Q3 and rose rapidly in September. It is expected that asphalt production will be high in the early part of Q4 and then decline as refineries enter the maintenance phase [13][19]. - **Demand Side**: From July to August, domestic asphalt shipments totaled 3.649 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.187 million tons (5.4% year - on - year increase). The weekly shipments showed a U - shaped trend in Q3, with demand weakening from July to August due to rainfall and rebounding in September. The utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity remained stable and increased, reaching 18.94% as of September 22, a year - on - year increase of 0.86 percentage points. However, as the demand peak season ends, both demand and production capacity utilization may face downward pressure [21][24]. - **Import and Export**: From July to August, asphalt imports totaled 0.6497 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.0262 million tons, with a relatively stable average import price. Exports totaled 0.1365 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.0659 million tons, and the average export price increased slightly [30][34]. - **Inventory**: Both factory and social inventories of asphalt showed a downward trend in Q3. Factory inventory reached 0.658 million tons as of September 26, a year - on - year decrease of 0.265 million tons (40.27% year - on - year decrease). Social inventory decreased after rainfall ended in August. In Q4, both are expected to continue the seasonal de - stocking trend [38][42]. - **Price Spread**: In Q3, the crack spread of asphalt remained high and oscillated within a narrow range, while the diluted processing profit of asphalt was at a low level in recent years, which restricted the release of local refinery production capacity. In Q4, the crack spread is expected to remain high as demand enters the off - season [47].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is relatively optimistic, and there is support at the lower end of aluminum prices [1]. - In the fourth quarter, the macro sentiment at home and abroad is positive, providing price support for non - ferrous metals [66]. - For electrolytic aluminum, supply will have a small increase, and the price will first rise and then fall, with the upper pressure at 22,000 and the lower support at 20,000. Attention should be paid to the demand - side support [68]. - The short - term supply - demand fundamentals of aluminum alloy change little, and its price still fluctuates with the aluminum price. It is recommended to take a long - position on dips [68]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The electrolytic aluminum price showed a three - stage trend in the current period. From January to mid - March, it oscillated upward due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, Trump's assumption of office, and pre - holiday stocking demand. From late March to early April, it oscillated downward as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation faded and concerns about Trump's tariff policy emerged. From mid - April to the present, it oscillated upward after the US tariff policy was implemented and counter - measures were taken in China, along with other factors like supply disturbances from Guinea's bauxite and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [6]. 2. Macro - aspect - The Fed restarted interest - rate cuts, and liquidity became more relaxed. The US economic data showed changes in employment, inflation, etc. The tariff impact was temporarily alleviated, and attention should be paid to the time point in November. China's anti - involution policy was advanced, and future inflation might stabilize and rebound [8][10][14]. 3. Fundamental Aspect Supply - side - **Bauxite**: In July, China's bauxite production increased year - on - year. Guinea's supply was disturbed, but the impact was expected to be limited. The domestic port inventory was high, suppressing the transaction price. The bauxite price might have a seasonal correction but had support at 70 dollars/ton [18][22][24]. - **Alumina**: The supply was loose. In 2025, there was a large - scale new - investment capacity. Although some projects were postponed, there was still 440 million tons of new - investment capacity in the fourth quarter. The production capacity utilization rate was at a historical high, but there might be seasonal production cuts in winter in Shanxi and Henan [25][27]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In August, the production was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In the fourth quarter, the production was expected to be about 11.283 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.39%, showing a stable operation [30]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July, the import volume of un - forged aluminum alloy hit a four - year low, mainly due to price inversion and the off - season of demand. The export volume increased year - on - year. The weekly inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy increased [59][60][64]. Demand - side - **Downstream Processing**: As of September 18, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2% week - on - week, but decreased by 1.3 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Different sectors had different trends [31]. - **Export**: In August, China's export of un - forged aluminum and aluminum products was 530,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. From January to August, the cumulative export was 4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%. The export was under pressure due to tariff policies [34]. - **New Energy**: In the photovoltaic field, the annual photovoltaic installation was expected to increase year - on - year, and the photovoltaic aluminum consumption in the fourth quarter was expected to decrease year - on - year but still maintain positive growth for the whole year. In the power grid field, the cable aluminum demand continued to grow, and it was expected to maintain high - growth in the fourth quarter [39]. - **Automobile**: In August, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The demand for aluminum in the automobile industry increased significantly, and new - energy vehicles were expected to drive aluminum consumption in the fourth quarter [46]. - **Real Estate**: In August, the real - estate sales, investment, new construction, and completion areas decreased year - on - year. However, the new policies in first - tier cities might support the market demand, and the new - house transaction area in 38 cities increased year - on - year in early September [41]. Inventory - As of September 19, the inventory of SHFE electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly, LME inventory increased, and COMEX inventory decreased slightly. The overall inventory was in a low position historically. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was expected to show a "slow de - stocking" pattern in the fourth quarter [48][51]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly in August and was expected to continue to decline slightly in September. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 0.4 percentage points week - on - week as of September 18, and it was expected to remain stable in September [54][57]. 4. Future Outlook - The macro - environment is favorable for non - ferrous metals. The bauxite price may have a seasonal correction but has support. The alumina supply is in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum price will first rise and then fall. The aluminum alloy price fluctuates with the aluminum price [66][68].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber market in Q3 2025 showed a sideways oscillation with no obvious unilateral trend. In Q4, the market will likely oscillate within a range, with supply pressure more prominent in the early stage and potential for rebounds due to weather and policies in the later stage [6][53]. - The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase in Q4, but weather disturbances and the pace of increased tapping will support prices from the bottom. The cost of synthetic rubber remains under pressure, and the supply situation will not change significantly in the short term [8][28]. - The demand for rubber from the tire industry is affected by factors such as the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" not meeting expectations, EU anti - dumping investigations, and US tariff policies. However, domestic new energy vehicle policies provide some support [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Since Q3, the three major rubber futures markets have been in a sideways oscillation. Rain and typhoons in July - August supported rubber prices by hindering tapping, but in September, with the seasonal peak production season and the "zero - tariff rubber import" pilot project, concerns about increased supply grew. The "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" demand was below expectations, and EU anti - dumping investigations and US tariff policies affected exports, while domestic new energy vehicle policies supported demand [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation Natural Rubber - **Raw Material Prices**: As of September 26, raw material prices in Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan were lower than the same period last year. Prices have been relatively stable in Q3, and are expected to remain stable in Q4, providing cost support [8]. - **Supply Growth**: The global supply growth of natural rubber is slowing down. In 2025, the global output is expected to increase by only 0.5%. China's output has increased significantly, while Indonesia and Vietnam's output is expected to decline. Weather will be a major variable affecting output in Q4 [10]. - **Imports**: In August 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Thailand is the largest source, and imports from Cote d'Ivoire are growing. If the China - Cote d'Ivoire zero - tariff policy is implemented, imports may further increase [17]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of September 19, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 111.2 tons. Qingdao's inventory has been decreasing, but the pace has slowed. In Q4, the inventory reduction pressure may increase with more arrivals from major producing areas [20]. Synthetic Rubber - **Profit of Butadiene Rubber Enterprises**: In 2025, the large increase in butadiene production capacity led to an oversupply situation, putting pressure on prices. The cost of butadiene rubber remains high, and production profit is under pressure. Although production growth has slowed, it remains at a high level [28]. - **Inventory of Butadiene Rubber**: As of the week of September 26, the factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,600 tons, and the trader inventory was 5,700 tons, both higher than the same period last year. The market is in a weak supply - demand balance, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion during the peak demand season [29]. - **Imports and Exports of Butadiene Rubber**: In August 2025, China's butadiene rubber imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports increased. China has shifted from a net importer to a net exporter, and this pattern is expected to continue in Q4 [31]. Tires - **All - steel Tires**: As of September 26, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 66.39%, and the factory inventory days were 39.16 days. The social inventory at the end of August was 62,500 units. Factory inventory has decreased significantly, but social inventory remains high. After the National Day holiday, the resumption of production by tire enterprises will affect supply pressure [36]. - **Semi - steel Tires**: In August, the production of passenger cars and semi - steel tires increased. However, due to the mismatch between supply and demand and EU anti - dumping investigations, the factory inventory pressure is large [43]. - **Tire Exports**: In August 2025, the export of all - steel tires was relatively stable, with new growth points in emerging markets. The export of semi - steel tires decreased after reaching a high in July. In Q4, semi - steel tire exports may face downward pressure, while all - steel tires may benefit from emerging markets [46]. 3.3 Related Price Situation - The price spreads among the three major rubber futures contracts were relatively stable, indicating that the internal supply - demand fundamentals of rubber were not significantly differentiated, and market influencing factors tended to be consistent [50]. 3.4 Future Market Outlook - In Q4, raw material prices are expected to run stably, providing cost support. The supply from Cote d'Ivoire may increase. Qingdao's inventory reduction pressure may grow. The tire industry's inventory and production resumption after the National Day will affect demand. Macroeconomic factors include the impact of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and potential domestic macro - easing policies. The market will likely oscillate within a range, with supply pressure more obvious in the early stage and potential for rebounds later [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the overall supply of coking coal will gradually shift from tight balance to looseness, with low inventory providing price support; the production enthusiasm of independent coking enterprises for coke is better than last year, but their bargaining power is weak, and the demand for coke is supported by high - level hot metal production. The market needs to focus on the supply increment after the National Day, downstream winter storage demand, policy implementation, and market game results [32][34]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - In Q3 2025, the coking coal and coke futures markets showed a strong trend. In July, the market rebounded strongly driven by macro and policy expectations. In August, the market diverged, and the driving logic shifted from strong expectations to weak reality. Although the price decline was limited due to cost support and pre - holiday replenishment demand [8]. 02 Data Analysis - **Coking Coal Supply**: As of the week of September 26, the operating rates and daily output of sample coal washing plants and mines decreased year - on - year. Domestic coking coal supply was restricted by policies, while Mongolian coal imports increased, and the overall supply shifted from tight balance to looseness [11]. - **Coking Coal Imports**: As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by about 8% year - on - year. Mongolia and Russia dominated, and Canada's share increased. The main import increment in Q4 is expected to come from Mongolia [12]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of the week of September 26, the coking coal inventories of mines, coal washing plants, and ports decreased year - on - year. The inventory transferred downstream, and the low - inventory state provided price support [18]. - **Coking Coal Replenishment Logic**: As of September 26, the coking coal inventories of independent coking enterprises and steel enterprises increased year - on - year. The inventory changes of independent coking enterprises were related to profits, while steel enterprises' replenishment was affected by seasonal expectations and actual demand [21]. - **Coke Production**: As of the week of September 26, the capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coking enterprises increased year - on - year, while those of steel enterprises decreased slightly. Independent coking enterprises maintained high production to make up for profits, and attention should be paid to the impact of profit changes on production enthusiasm [23]. - **Coke Demand**: As of the week of September 26, the profitability, daily hot metal output, and weekly coke consumption of steel enterprises increased year - on - year. High hot metal production supported coke demand, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the steel industry's output reduction policy [26]. - **Coke Inventory**: As of the week of September 26, the coke inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased year - on - year, while that of steel enterprises and ports increased. High hot metal production drove inventory transfer, and attention should be paid to the balance between downstream demand and upstream production adjustment [28]. - **Price Fluctuations**: As of the week of September 26, independent coking enterprises had an average loss of 34 yuan per ton of coke. In Q3, there were multiple rounds of price increases and decreases, and the new round of price increases needed to observe market game results [29]. 03 Market Outlook - **Coking Coal**: In Q4, the supply of domestic coking coal is limited, but Mongolian coal supplements. The inventory transfer is restricted by the weak reality, and the low - inventory state supports prices. The replenishment of downstream enterprises is affected by profits and actual demand [32]. - **Coke**: In Q4, the production enthusiasm of independent coking enterprises is better, but their bargaining power is weak. High - level hot metal production supports coke demand. The new round of price increases needs to observe market game results, and the coke futures market follows coking coal fluctuations [34].