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螺矿产业链年报:钢价震荡筑底,关注政策对供给端的影响过剩进一步兑现,但矿价下行料将曲折
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 12:49
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, steel prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. Attention should be paid to the impact of policies on the supply side. Demand is unlikely to improve significantly, but with the continuous implementation of policies such as anti - involution and a warm macro - environment, steel prices may form a bottom, with a possible fluctuation range of (2800, 3500), showing a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half [83][85]. - In 2026, the oversupply of iron ore will become more prominent, but the decline in ore prices is expected to be tortuous. The supply is expected to increase significantly, demand may decline slightly, and inventory is likely to accumulate at a high level. The price fluctuation range may be (600, 850), with high prices in the first quarter, a decline in the second quarter, and more downward pressure in the second half of the year [86][88]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Steel - In 2025, steel prices showed a pattern of decline - rise - decline again. From January to June, prices dropped due to factors such as overseas trade frictions, weak domestic demand, and falling raw material costs. In July, prices rose driven by anti - involution policies. From August to December, prices oscillated downward due to weak demand and inventory accumulation. For example, rebar mostly traded in the range of 3000 - 3200 [5][8]. 3.1.2. Iron Ore - In 2025, iron ore prices first declined, then rebounded, and finally oscillated. From January to June, prices fell due to factors like overseas recession expectations and rumors of crude steel production restrictions. In July, prices rebounded due to anti - involution policies and strong demand. From August to December, prices oscillated at a high level but with gradually lower peaks [9][12]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1. US Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75% in December 2025, the third cut this year. It also plans to start a monthly short - term Treasury purchase program of about $40 billion. The dot - plot predicts one 25 - basis - point cut in 2026 and 2027 each [13]. 3.2.2. US Economic Indicators - The US employment market is weak. In November, non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. Inflation in November was significantly lower than expected, with CPI rising 2.7% year - on - year and core CPI rising 2.6% year - on - year [17][18]. 3.2.3. China - US Relations - China - US relations are currently in a relatively stable period. After rounds of negotiations, some tariffs have been cancelled or suspended. However, there are still uncertainties, and strategic competition between the two countries persists [23]. 3.2.4. Domestic Credit and Economy - In November, new social financing was 2.49 trillion yuan, with corporate net financing being the main support. New RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, with weak demand from residents and enterprises. Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025 set a tone for more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies in 2026, aiming to expand domestic demand [25][29]. 3.3. Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1. Terminal Demand - Real estate is still at the bottom, dragging down building material demand. In 2025, real estate policies aimed at stabilizing the market, but the effect was limited [30][31]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to be stable in 2026. In 2025, the growth rate of infrastructure investment turned negative, affected by factors such as fiscal front - loading and project reserves [33][34]. - Manufacturing investment may maintain some resilience but with industry differentiation. In 2025, it was supported by exports and policies, with a growth rate of 1.9% from January to November [36][38]. - The automobile industry had a good performance in 2025, with production and sales reaching new highs. In 2026, it may face some challenges due to policy changes. The home appliance industry maintained low - growth [39][42]. - The construction machinery industry is expected to maintain growth in 2026, and the shipbuilding industry continued to be prosperous in 2025 [43][45]. - Steel exports were an important support for demand in 2025. In 2026, exports may be restricted by policies in the short term [46][47]. 3.3.2. Steel Supply - In 2025, China's crude steel and pig iron production decreased year - on - year. In 2026, steel production is expected to be further adjusted according to demand and profit, with capacity likely to shrink [54]. 3.3.3. Steel Profit - In 2025, steel mill profits were high in the first half and low in the second half. In 2026, mills are expected to maintain a thin - profit state, affected by factors such as demand and cost [57]. 3.3.4. Steel Production - In 2025, rebar production was at a low level, while hot - rolled coil production was high. In 2026, this differentiation pattern is expected to continue [60]. 3.3.5. Steel Inventory - In 2025, steel inventory pressure emerged in the second half. Rebar inventory was relatively neutral, while hot - rolled coil inventory pressure was large. In 2026, attention should be paid to the supply pressure of plates [63]. 3.3.6. Steel Price Spread - In 2025, the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar prices first widened and then narrowed, reflecting changes in the supply - demand structure [64]. 3.3.7. Iron Ore Supply - In 2025, global iron ore shipments increased slightly. In 2026, global iron ore supply is expected to grow significantly, with about 2000 tons of incremental supply from major mines and strong incremental expectations from non - mainstream mines [68][88]. 3.3.8. Iron Ore Demand - In 2025, iron ore demand was resilient, but in 2026, it is expected to decline slightly due to the implementation of crude steel production control policies [79]. 3.3.9. Iron Ore Inventory - In 2025, port inventory of iron ore was high, and steel mill inventory was low. In 2026, port inventory is expected to remain high, and steel mills will continue to purchase on - demand [82]. 3.4. Market Outlook 3.4.1. Steel - In 2026, steel demand is expected to be weak, but steel prices may oscillate and bottom out due to policies and a warm macro - environment. The price may fluctuate between 2800 and 3500, with a possible pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half [85]. 3.4.2. Iron Ore - In 2026, the iron ore market will face an oversupply situation, but the decline in ore prices will be tortuous. The price may fluctuate between 600 and 850, with high prices in the first quarter, a decline in the second quarter, and more downward pressure in the second half of the year [88].
原油周度报告-20251226
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 12:31
原油周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号:F03142459 投资咨询号:Z0021764 中航期货 2025-12-26 重点数据 (1)美国至12月12日当周EIA原油库存 -127.4万桶,预期-106.6万桶,前值-181.2万桶。 (2)美国至12月12日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 -74.2万桶,前值30.8万桶。 (3)美国至12月12日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 24.9万桶,前值24.8万桶。 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 05 后市研判 报告PA摘RT要 01 (1)美国加大扣押委内瑞拉油轮的力度。 (2)俄乌和平方案谈判持续推进。 (3)EIA数据推迟至下周公布。 市场焦点 主要观点 受美委紧张关系升温的影响,本周油价触底反弹,整体呈现震荡偏强的走势。美国政府于周末扣押一艘未受制裁 的油轮,此前美国总统特朗普宣布将对受制裁的油轮进出委内瑞拉进行封锁,此举引发市场对美国政府进一步加大限 制措施的担忧,地缘风险溢价推动油价上行,但有市场消息称,目前委内瑞拉石油装载活动仍以接近正常的速度进行, 在一定程度限制油价上行空间。综合来看,原油供应过剩的预期仍是 ...
橡胶年度报告(2026):供给弹性降低,需求驱动价格空间
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 10:03
橡胶年度报告(2026) --供给弹性降低,需求驱动价格空间 衡飞池 从业资格号:F03122956 投资咨询号:Z0022861 行情回顾 PART 01 橡胶盘面2025全年宽幅震荡 4月初受美国"对等关 税"冲击全线大跌 年初供应紧张推至 年内高位 宏观冲击淡化,供需主 导,缺乏突出矛盾,震 荡运行为主。 天然橡胶基本面情况 PART 02 原料价格区间震荡运行 中航期货 2025-12-26 目录 01 行情回顾 02 基本面情况 03 EUDR政策情况 04 后市研判 ➢ 2025上半年天然橡胶主产区开割,全球供应增加预期,叠加美对等关税政策扰动,原料价格高位松动,胶 水价格下行明显。下半年的天气扰动因素仍然存在,台风降雨天气对割胶产生影响,同时泰柬地缘冲突, 使得泰国原料价格坚挺,原料端价格止跌企稳。展望2026,核心逻辑是主产国供应弹性降低,全球橡胶 种植面积增速下降,泰国树龄结构老化,印尼转向种植其他高价值作物,均可能制约产量增长。东南亚 产区的降雨、干旱等异常天气仍是影响短期割胶和原料释放的关键变量。此外,泰柬边境的地缘冲突也 可能对局部供应产生扰动。总体而言,长期供应潜力的下降可能为价格提 ...
供需紧平衡,铜价继续维持高位
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 10:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In 2026, globally, copper will be in a situation of tight supply and demand, with the tightness in copper ore gradually transferring to electrolytic copper. Demand will maintain a high growth rate, and the market will be in a state of tight supply - demand balance throughout the year. The copper price is expected to remain high, ranging from 80,000 to 110,000 yuan per ton [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1后市研判 (Outlook for the Future) - Overseas, the Fed's December rate - cut has been implemented. Despite the slightly better - than - expected US November non - farm payrolls data, the rising unemployment rate won't change the Fed's loose stance, and the overseas liquidity environment will continue to support risk appetite. Domestically, major meetings have set a clear tone of "stable growth and expanding domestic demand" for 2026, providing support for market sentiment [6]. - On the supply side, the resumption of production at mines such as Indonesia's Grasberg and Chile's El Teniente is slow, new capacity investment is limited, and domestic smelters have a production cut expectation. The growth rate of global electrolytic copper production in 2026 is expected to slow down, and the tightness in copper ore supply is gradually shifting to electrolytic copper supply [6]. - In terms of demand, grid demand is strong, the demand for copper from new - energy vehicles is growing explosively, new - energy vehicles and computing power drive related power supporting facilities as new growth points, home appliance consumption is expected to remain stable, and the impact of real - estate demand is limited [6]. - Regarding inventory, US tariff policies have led to a structural high premium in the COMEX copper market, causing a one - way transfer of global inventory to the US market. US copper inventory is continuously accumulating, while Asian and European markets face a tight spot supply situation, leading to a structural rise in the copper price fluctuation center [6]. 3.2行情回顾 (Market Review) - In 2025, the copper price increased significantly. In Q1, tariff expectations and a falling US dollar index, along with a decline in copper ore processing fees, led to a large - scale transfer of global copper inventory to the COMEX market, with the COMEX copper price leading the rise and the Shanghai copper price reaching a stage high [8][9]. - In Q2, tariff policies caused market panic and a sharp decline in the copper price, but then the price rebounded in a V - shape. After mid - April, as the tariff conflict eased, the copper price gradually strengthened [9]. - In Q3, the copper price fluctuated at a high level. Weak US economic data, the possibility of a recession, and the expectation of a rate cut, along with supply disruptions such as mine shutdowns, led to high - level oscillations [9]. - In Q4, multiple positive factors, including mine production cuts, tariff - induced inventory transfer, and the Fed's rate cut, drove the copper price to a new high [9]. 3.3宏观面 (Macroeconomic Aspect) 3.3.1 Overseas - The Fed cut interest rates three times in 2025, with a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points, and the federal funds rate dropped to 3.5% - 3.75% after the December meeting. The US November non - farm payrolls data was slightly better than expected, but the unemployment rate reached a four - year high, and inflation data showed a further easing of inflation pressure, strengthening the market's expectation of the Fed's dovish stance in 2026 [13]. - The possible replacement of the Fed chair by the Trump administration may lead to a continuation of loose policies. The weakening of the Fed's independence and the trend of "de - globalization" in the US and "de - dollarization" globally may cause the US dollar index to remain weak, supporting the copper price [13]. - Short - term Sino - US trade issues have significantly eased. After the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in October, the two sides reached consensus on multiple issues, and the suspension of some tariffs was extended, enhancing market confidence in the economic growth of both countries [15]. 3.3.2 Domestic - In 2025, domestic economic indicators showed overall stability. From January to November, RMB loans and social financing scale increased, and M2, M1, and other indicators showed certain growth. Industrial added value, service industry production index, and social consumer goods retail sales also had year - on - year growth, but fixed - asset investment declined [18]. - The central bank implemented a moderately loose monetary policy in 2025, including reducing the deposit reserve ratio and policy interest rates. The government issued ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, with part of the funds used for key projects and new policies [18]. - In 2026, the central bank is expected to continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and the government will implement more active fiscal policies. The policy signals of "stable growth" and "expanding domestic demand" will support market sentiment, although specific policy tools are yet to be implemented [21]. 3.4基本面 (Fundamental Aspect) 3.4.1 Supply - **Copper ore**: In 2025, global copper ore supply was severely disrupted by various events, leading to a significant reduction in production expectations. The resumption of production at some mines will be slow, and new large - scale projects are limited. The global copper ore supply faces structural challenges, such as the depletion of high - grade resources and long development cycles. The supply gap in 2026 is expected to widen, and it will turn to a loose state in 2027 [25]. - **Copper concentrate processing fees**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee (TC/RC) is 0 dollars/ton and 0 cents/pound, indicating an extremely tight supply of copper concentrate [28]. - **Electrolytic copper**: In November 2025, China's electrolytic copper production increased. However, due to tight raw material supply, poor long - term negotiation conditions in 2026, and industry suggestions to limit production capacity, some smelters may face losses. The CSPT group plans to cut production by more than 10% in 2026, and after considering new capacity, the growth of China's electrolytic copper production in 2026 is expected to be about 3.75% [32]. - **Recycled copper**: Affected by US tariff policies and the "232 investigation," the cost of importing recycled copper from the US has increased significantly. Global competition for recycled copper raw materials is intensifying, and the implementation of Document No. 770 has also impacted the recycled copper industry. The supply of recycled copper is expected to tighten in 2026 [37]. 3.4.2 Demand - **Real estate**: From January to November 2025, real - estate development investment, construction area, new construction area, and completion area all declined, and housing prices generally decreased. The real - estate market is still in a weak stage, but in 2026, it will mainly focus on stability [41]. - **New - energy vehicles**: In November 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased year - on - year and month - on - month. From January to November, the production and sales also showed high - speed growth. Although there may be challenges in domestic demand in 2026, such as the reduction of subsidies and the cancellation of purchase tax incentives, the export growth rate may be maintained, and the production of new - energy vehicles will still grow at a relatively high speed [44]. - **Power grid**: The power grid is the largest domestic copper - consuming scenario, accounting for nearly 46% of terminal copper consumption in 2025. As of October 2025, power grid project investment increased year - on - year, and the growth of power generation installed capacity also drove the demand for copper cables. In the "15th Five - Year Plan," the construction of a new power system will bring strong demand for copper, and it is expected that China's power grid investment will maintain a high growth rate of about 8% in 2026, and the global power grid's demand for copper will grow at about 4% [49]. - **Global new installed capacity**: As of November 2025, the cumulative power generation installed capacity increased year - on - year. However, due to the pre - consumption of domestic photovoltaic installed capacity, the growth rate of the annual installed capacity is expected to decline. It is predicted that the global new installed capacity may enter a plateau, but the demand from emerging markets in the Middle East and Latin America may maintain high growth [52]. - **Home appliances**: In 2025, the domestic home - appliance market was affected by factors such as government subsidies and tariff issues. Although the overall demand increased steadily, there was a significant contraction at the end of the year. In 2026, domestic demand will be affected by the continuity of government subsidies, and exports will still be under pressure from tariffs. However, as a major traditional copper - consuming area, it is expected to support the copper price [56]. 3.4.3 Inventory US tariff policies have led to a structural high premium in the COMEX copper market, causing a one - way transfer of global inventory to the US. As of December 25, the COMEX inventory reached a 21 - year high. The global inventory distribution is unbalanced, with the US inventory accumulating and Asian and European markets facing a tight supply situation. The copper price fluctuation center has risen structurally, and the global copper inventory may decline and remain at a low level in 2026 [59].
原油周度报告-20251219
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 10:52
原油周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号:F03142459 投资咨询号:Z0021764 中航期货 2025-12-19 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 05 后市研判 报告PA摘RT要 01 | | (1)美国CPI数据超预期放缓。 | | --- | --- | | 市场焦点 | (2)俄乌和平方案谈判持续推进。 | | | (3)美委紧张关系加剧。 | 重点数据 (1)美国至12月12日当周EIA原油库存 -127.4万桶,预期-106.6万桶,前值-181.2万桶。 (2)美国至12月12日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 -74.2万桶,前值30.8万桶。 (3)美国至12月12日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 24.9万桶,前值24.8万桶。 主要观点 本周原油整体延续偏弱运行的态势,美委紧张关系加剧引发地缘风险溢价,但市场缺乏上行的持续驱动,俄乌地 缘缓和预期升温叠加供应过剩的预期仍对盘面形成压制。一方面,美乌柏林会晤在对乌安全保障机制上取得了显著进 展,市场对俄乌达成停火协议的预期升温,另外一方面,OPEC+及美国的原油供应延续环比增长的趋势,进一步强化 市场供应 ...
沥青周度报告-20251219
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 10:46
沥青周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号:F03142459 投资咨询号:Z0021764 中航期货 2025-12-19 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 重点数据 (1)截止12月17日,国内沥青样本企业开工率27.6%,较上一统计周期下降0.2个百分点。 (2)截止12月19日,国内沥青周度产量48.7万吨,环比上周减少1.2万吨。 (3)截止12月19日,国内沥青样本企业厂库库存59.1万吨,环比上周增加0.3万吨。 (4)截止12月19日,国内沥青样本企业社会库存71.4万吨,环比上周减少0.7万吨。 主要观点 本周沥青盘面呈现宽幅震荡的走势,一方面,受原油走势偏弱的传导,化工板块整体偏弱,叠加沥青基本面偏弱 的影响,沥青盘面周初整体延续震荡偏弱的走势,另外一方面,美国总统特朗普宣布对进入委内瑞拉受制裁的油轮进 行封锁,原料端的扰动导致盘面一度大幅反弹,随着委内瑞拉批准两艘油轮驶往亚洲,原料端的风险溢价出现回落, 基本回吐此前的涨幅。后续来看,在下游需求步入萎缩叠加成本端支撑减弱的背景下,盘面仍面临承压,尽管美委关 系持续紧张,原料端的仍可能对盘面造成扰动,但考虑到国内原 ...
焦煤焦炭周度报告-20251219
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 10:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal supply is slightly loose, with mines accumulating inventory and washing plants and ports reducing inventory. Independent coking enterprises' willingness to replenish coking coal has weakened again, while steel mills have slightly replenished their coking coal inventory. Coke production has slightly declined, iron - water production still has room to fall, and the third round of coke price cuts has started. The double - coke market is affected by both policy and actual supply - demand. The policy is warming, but the actual supply is loose and demand is weak, and the market fluctuates within a range [5][32][35] Summary by Directory Report Summary - From January 1, 2026, Indonesia will levy export tariffs on coal, with the rate expected to be between 1% - 5% [5] - The new policy emphasizes and improves the benchmark level of the "coal washing" field, which will make the demand for high - quality coking raw coal more rigid and increase the compliance production cost of coking enterprises [5] - In 2025, global coal demand will reach a record high of 8.85 billion tons, an increase of 0.5%, but is expected to decline by 2030 [5] - The coking coal supply is slightly loose, mines are accumulating inventory, and washing plants and ports are reducing inventory. Independent coking enterprises' replenishment willingness has weakened, while steel mills have slightly replenished inventory. Coke production has slightly declined, iron - water production still has room to fall, and the third round of coke price cuts has started [5] - Recently, the domestic policy has been warming, and the double - coke futures market has rebounded, but the actual supply - demand situation restricts the rebound space. The winter - storage expectation of coking coal still exists [5] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: limited increase in domestic coking coal supply, and warming policies in the domestic demand sector [8] - Bearish factors: high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance, difficult inventory reduction of coking coal, and seasonal decline in iron - water and downstream demand pressure [8] Data Analysis - Coking coal supply: As of the week of December 19, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.62%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31%, and the daily output decreased by 0.75 tons to 75.75 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample washing plants was 37.68%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53%, and the daily output decreased by 0.63 tons to 27.29 tons. As of December 13, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu Port was 1.12887 million tons, remaining at a high level [10] - Coking coal inventory: As of the week of December 19, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.7277 million tons, an increase of 174,600 tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample washing plants was 3.2728 million tons, a decrease of 50,900 tons; the port coking coal inventory was 2.8617 million tons, a decrease of 213,300 tons [15] - Independent coking enterprises: As of December 19, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 10.3629 million tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons. The available inventory days were 12.37 days, an increase of 0.18 days. The coke inventory was 911,000 tons, an increase of 108,800 tons. The coking coal replenishment willingness has weakened [18] - Steel mills: As of December 19, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8.0499 million tons, an increase of 103,400 tons. The available inventory days were 13.02 days, an increase of 0.2 days. The coke inventory was 6.3373 million tons, a decrease of 15,500 tons, and the available days were 11.72 days, an increase of 0.06 days [22] - Coke production: As of December 19, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 72.05%, a decrease of 1.11% from the previous period, and the daily output of metallurgical coke was 630,000 tons, a decrease of 98,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.73%, a decrease of 0.22% from the previous period, and the daily coke output was 464,900 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons. Due to environmental protection restrictions in northern regions, the coking enterprises' production reduction range is 20% - 35% [24] - Coke consumption: As of the week of December 19, China's coke consumption was 1.0195 million tons, a decrease of 119,000 tons. The daily iron - water output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.2655 million tons, a decrease of 265,000 tons. Iron - water production is expected to continue to decline, and the subsequent demand for coke is limited [26] - Coke price cut: As of December 19, the average profit per ton of coke of independent coking enterprises was 16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton from the previous period. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 35.93%, the same as the previous period. Due to the firmness of raw material prices such as iron ore, steel enterprises' profit improvement is limited, and the third round of coke price cuts has started. Some steel mills in Xingtai, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, and Tangshan will lower the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton on December 22, 2025 [28] - Double - coke futures - spot basis structure: The coking coal futures market has stopped falling, and the coke market has recovered part of the price - cut range [30] 后市研判 - The domestic policy is warming, which stabilizes market sentiment and reverses the pessimistic expectation of unlimited coal supply growth. However, the actual supply - demand pattern is under pressure. The supply is loose, the downstream replenishment is weak, and the market fluctuates within a range between the "policy bottom" and the "demand ceiling" [32] - The core of the coke market logic is the interweaving of the "supply - demand double - weak" pattern caused by environmental protection restrictions and the "price game" under the profit squeeze of downstream steel mills. The coke price follows the cost - end coking coal and has limited upward elasticity [35]
中航期货橡胶周度报告-20251219
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 10:40
橡胶周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号:F03122956 投资咨询号:Z0022861 中航期货 2025-12-19 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 01 市场焦点 | 多方因素 | 空方因素 | | --- | --- | | 泰柬冲突影响供应预期,支撑海外端原料价格 | 天然橡胶库存去化有所不畅,小幅累库 | | 丁二烯库存压力有所缓解,支撑价格 | 顺丁橡胶产量高位,厂内库存去化不畅 | | | 轮胎库存去化不畅,拖累产能利用率 | 数据分析 PART 03 天然橡胶原料端价格稳中略偏强 ➢ 成本方面,12月18日,泰国地区胶水价格为55.8泰铢/千克,杯胶价格为51泰铢/千克,均较前期有所走强。国内海南 地区原料价格为13000元/吨。国内产区逐步停割胶价维持稳定,海外产区受泰国与柬埔寨边境紧张局势升级,引发了 市场对局部产区割胶作业及加工厂生产的担忧。尽管冲突区域并非核心产区,实际产量影响有限,但这一事件推动胶 价表现偏强,橡胶成本端存支撑。 数据分析 PART 03 天然橡胶整体小幅累库 基本面概况 本周天然橡胶盘面维持横盘震荡,合成橡胶表现 ...
铝产业链周度报告-20251219
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 09:37
02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号:F0272984 投资咨询资格号:Z0011970 中航期货 2025-12-19 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | 摘 | 报 | 告 | 要 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...
铜产业链周度报告-20251219
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 09:33
铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号:F0272984 投资咨询资格号:Z0011970 中航期货 2025-12-19 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | 告 | 摘 | 报 | 要 | A | 0 | 1 | P | R | T | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...