Report Investment Ratings No information provided on the overall industry investment ratings Core Views - **豆粕**: High-level consolidation with a weakening trend. The positive impact of China-US trade tariff events is limited. Short-term marginal supply is increasing, and it is expected to gradually return to fundamentals, with a risk of weakening [1][3]. - **菜粕**: High-level oscillation with a weakening trend. Short-term supply is expected to be sufficient, and it may gradually return to a weak operation based on fundamentals as the impact of China-US trade tariff events cools [1][6]. - **棕榈油**: Short-term rebound. International palm oil prices may see a downward shift in the center of gravity. Pay attention to international price guidance and consider short-selling opportunities after the rebound [1][8]. - **棉花**: Under pressure and oscillating. The international cotton market faces pressure, and the domestic market has a high inventory and a weak consumption policy, with overall prices remaining weak [1][13]. - **红枣**: Weak operation. The current supply-demand pattern shows strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to maintain a weak trend in the near term [1][15]. - **生猪**: Wide-range oscillation in the short term. Supply pressure is expected to dominate the market in the second half of 2025. Consider short-selling opportunities on the rebound based on the basis convergence logic of Contracts 5 and 7 [1][18]. Summary by Variety 豆粕 - **International**: The impact of China-US trade tariff events is limited, South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting is about to start [1][3]. - **Domestic**: Ports and oil mills have seen two consecutive weeks of soybean inventory accumulation, and the soybean processing rate has rebounded. Monthly imports from April to June are expected to exceed 10 million tons. The inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle next week [1][3]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3066 yuan/ton, down 1.22% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3471.71 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [2]. 菜粕 - **Domestic**: The inventory is much higher than in the past two years, and new-season rapeseed will be harvested in May, with sufficient short-term supply. The substitution advantage of rapeseed meal has reappeared after the spot price difference with soybean meal has returned [1][6]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2673 yuan/ton, down 1.76% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2635.79 yuan/ton, down 1.42% [4]. 棕榈油 - **International**: In April, both supply and demand increased, and the price center of gravity may gradually shift downward. Malaysia's palm oil exports have been good recently, maintaining a short-term rebound [1][8]. - **Domestic**: Low commercial inventory and imports, with no supply pressure for now. Pay attention to international price guidance [1][7]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8720 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous day. The national average price was 9230 yuan/ton, down 0.30% [7]. 棉花 - **International**: The ICE market has eased due to the suspension of some tariffs by Trump. The April supply-demand balance sheet is slightly negative for the global cotton market. US cotton exports and prices face pressure [1][13]. - **Domestic**: High industrial and commercial inventories are gradually being reduced. New cotton is being sown, and there are no obvious negative weather warnings. China-US trade tensions may lead to a decline in textile exports to the US and an increase in domestic supply [1][13]. - **Price**: The main contract CF2509 closed at 12880 yuan/ton, up 0.55% intraday. The domestic spot average price was 14310 yuan/ton, down 0.03% [10][11]. 红枣 - **Market**: The trading volume is low, and the market is in a traditional consumption off-season. Fresh fruits are gradually entering the market, squeezing the market share of dried fruits [1][15]. - **Production Area**: Xinjiang's main production areas' jujube trees are still dormant, and attention should be paid to weather disturbances [15]. - **Price**: The main contract CJ2505 closed at 9085 yuan/ton, down 0.71% intraday. The spot prices in various regions remained stable [14][15]. 生猪 - **Supply**: The supply pressure from April to June has limited growth, but the supply pressure in the third quarter is expected to increase. The overall supply pressure in the second half of 2025 is expected to be high [17][18]. - **Demand**: Demand has slightly increased but remains at a relatively low level. Pay attention to the improvement of seasonal demand [17]. - **Price**: The main contract Lh2505 closed at 14510 yuan/ton, down 0.24% intraday. The domestic spot average price was 15010 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [16][17].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 欧盟美国关税谈判成果小，G2 大国各方面博弈剧烈，美联储鲍威尔或被取代， | | 黄金 | 强势 | 各国流动性放松，黄金强势。长期看，国际秩序破坏，长期不确定困扰持续， | | | | 各经济体购金动力积极，黄金长期战略配置价值持续存在【740-780】 | | | | 基本面上全球需求释放或再现，商品市场波动剧烈，未来刺激预期较大，但是 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 短期需要警惕美国带来的流动性危机。品种属性方面，白银弹性大跟随黄金和 | | | | 基本金属波动，仍处于大的震荡区间附近，操作上区间思路对待。【8000-8500】 | | | | 特朗普开启关键矿物调查，着眼于新关税以替代对等关税，美国关税政策的不确定 | | 铜 | 反弹 | 性加剧市场恐慌和混乱，海内外降息概率回升，短期铜背靠下方均线，把握逢低试 | | | | 多机会，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【75000，77000】 | | 锌 | 反弹承压 | 国内库存累积，终端需求偏弱，锌上行动力趋缓，反弹承压，中长期 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 偏弱 | 机构下调 25 年需求增速，油价偏弱。近期美国豁免中国部分产品"对等关税"，关税战 | | | | 争缓和；EIA、OPEC、IEA 最新月报均下调 25 年原油需求增速。SC【465-480】 | | LPG | 震荡 | 现货下降，基差回归，液化气低位震荡。现货连续下降，基差下降，但仍处高位；供需 | | | | 面多空并存，港口去库，下游 PDH 开工率下降。PG【4300-4400】 | | L | 偏弱 | 期现齐跌，基差走强，进口存缩量预期，停车比例偏低，震荡偏弱。中长期，装置投产 | | | | 压力偏高叠加原油下行，反弹偏空。L【7150-7250】 | | PP | 偏弱 | 停车比例上升，反制裁加剧 PDH 供给收缩预期，油制开工积极性提高，震荡偏弱。中长 | | | | 期，装置投产压力偏高叠加原油下行，反弹偏空。PP【7050-7200】 | | PVC | 震荡 | 主力移仓换月，春检陆续启动，盘面升水结构仓单持续注册，低估值底部有支撑。关注 | | | | 春检力度及 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 基本面方面，螺纹供需双增，但产量已高于去年同期，但需求仍明显低于 | | 螺纹钢 | 低位运行 | 去年，强度偏弱。高铁水产量压制市场预期。短期市场低位震荡运行，市 | | | | 场对政策仍有期待，但建筑钢材偏弱的需求仍未明显改善，等待驱动到来。 | | | | 【3050，3200】 | | | | 热卷从供需数据上看，暂时无明显矛盾，均为同期高位。但贸易摩擦升级 | | | | 以及越南、韩国反倾销政策或对出口预期产生影响。中期基本面仍有趋于 | | 热卷 | 低位运行 | 宽松的倾向，短期市场低位震荡运行，后期国内若有政策发力，或出现阶 | | | | 段性反弹行情。【3150，3300】 | | | | 发到货双增，铁水产量继续上升，港口继续去库，基本面中性略偏强。下 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 游需求仍在改善，但表需有见顶担忧。单边短线参与，5-9 正套持有 | | | | 【670,750】 | | | | 焦炭首轮提涨落地，对市场情绪有所提振。铁水产量升至高位，钢厂仍然 | | | | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 高位整理趋弱 | 中美贸易加征关税事件进一步利多影响有限。南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植即 | | | | 将开启。国内港口及油厂大豆连续两周累库，本周大豆开机回升，预计下周豆粕库 | | | | 存有望逐步进入累库周期。4-6 月月均进口 1000 万吨以上。盘面上，受华北大风导 | | | | 致现货短暂供应迟滞，以及中国在巴西进口大豆明确追溯来源引发市场看多情绪。 | | | | 昨日豆粕期价收涨。但由于短期边际供应增加，年内大豆供应预计难有较大影响的 | | | | 情况下，豆粕预计短期将逐步回归基本面。主力【3075，3170】 | | | 震荡整理中趋 | 国内菜粕库存远高于过去两年同期，加上 5 月国内迎来新季菜籽收获上市。菜粕短 | | | | 期供应预计充足。豆菜粕现货价差回归后，菜粕替代优势再度显现。盘面上，菜粕 | | 菜粕 | | 短期高位震荡，中美贸易加征关税事件影响有降温趋向，警惕豆粕端利多炒作结束 | | | 弱 | 后可能面临的基本面逻辑下的调整风险。主力【2650,2 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 强势 | 关税乱入扰乱全球秩序，大国博弈剧烈，美联储暗示出手，各国流动性放松， 黄金强势。长期看，国际秩序破坏，长期不确定困扰持续，各主体购金动力积 | | | | 极，黄金长期战略配置价值持续存在【740-780】 | | | | 基本面上全球需求释放或再现，商品市场波动剧烈，未来刺激预期较大，品种 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 属性方面，白银弹性大跟随黄金和基本金属波动，仍处于大的震荡区间附近， | | | | 操作上区间思路对待。【8000-8500】 | | 铜 | 反弹 | 关税冲击告一段落，市场情绪逐渐修复，海内外降息概率回升，短期铜反弹力度已 经开始减弱，铜需要区间震荡来充分完成多空换手，把握逢低试多机会，中长期依 | | | | 旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【75000，77000】 | | 锌 | 反弹承压 | 国内库存累积，终端需求偏弱，锌上行动力趋缓，反弹承压，中长期看，锌供 | | | | 增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【22000，23000】 | | 铅 | 反 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil is expected to fluctuate. The tariff war has eased, leading to an oil price rebound, but OPEC has lowered the 2025 crude oil demand growth rate, and OPEC+ plans to increase production more than expected [1]. - LPG is expected to rebound. It follows the oil price rebound, with the tariff risk continuing to be released, strong spot prices, and a high basis. The supply - demand situation has both long and short factors [1]. - L is expected to fluctuate. With an increase in warehouse receipts, an expected reduction in imports, and a planned startup of Exxon at the end of the month, it will stabilize in the short - term following the cost side. In the long - term, high device commissioning pressure and a potential decline in crude oil prices suggest a bearish outlook on rebounds [1]. - PP is expected to fluctuate. Spot prices have narrow fluctuations. Anti - sanctions increase the expected supply contraction of PDH devices, while the enthusiasm for oil - based production has increased. In the long - term, high device commissioning pressure and a potential decline in crude oil prices suggest a bearish outlook on rebounds [1]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate. With the price of calcium carbide decreasing and spring maintenance starting, the low - valuation bottom has support. Short - term observation is recommended, and buying on dips is advisable [1]. - PX is expected to be weak. Device maintenance is carried out as planned, and the improvement in supply - demand is limited. Affected by tariffs and OPEC+ production increase policies, the expected decline in crude oil prices and high inventory levels lead to a weakening trend [1]. - PTA is expected to be weak. Device maintenance eases supply - side pressure, but downstream polyester demand is expected to weaken, and inventory levels are high. The expected decline in crude oil prices also affects the market [1]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate. Device maintenance and low imports ease supply - side pressure, but demand is expected to weaken, and cost support is weak [1]. - Bottle chips are expected to be weak. Device capacity utilization has increased, leading to increased supply pressure. Although demand is expected to improve, cost support is weak, and inventory has rebounded [1]. - Glass is expected to consolidate. The expansion of delivery warehouses and an increase in registered warehouse receipts, along with weak spot price increases and cost support, lead to a 5 - 9 reverse spread [1]. - Soda ash is under pressure. Supply is gradually recovering, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory levels are relatively high [1]. - Methanol is bearish. High domestic and overseas device operating rates lead to increased supply, while demand shows signs of weakening, and cost support is weak [1]. - Urea is bearish. Supply pressure remains high, downstream demand is expected to weaken, and although fertilizer exports are relatively good, inventory levels are slightly high [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices were consolidating at a low level. WTI decreased by 0.73%, Brent increased by 0.19%, and SC increased by 0.97% [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the easing of the tariff war. In terms of supply, OPEC+ will adjust production by 411,000 barrels per day in May 2025, and the March production increased by 30,000 barrels per day. In terms of demand, OPEC and EIA have both lowered the 2025 global oil demand growth forecast. In terms of inventory, as of April 4, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 2.6 million barrels [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, there is long - term oversupply, and the oil price center will shift down. In the short - term, it is recommended to sell put options. SC should be monitored in the range of [465 - 480] [4]. LPG - **Market Review**: On April 14, the PG main contract closed at 4,405 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% compared to the previous period. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [6]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the strong fundamental situation of LPG itself. After the tariff on US propane, the import cost has increased, and the spot market is strong. In terms of device dynamics, some devices have adjusted their production. In terms of cost - profit, PDH device profit has decreased, while alkylation device profit has increased. Supply has increased slightly, demand has shown mixed trends, and port inventory has decreased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: LPG is undervalued, and it is recommended to buy call options or sell put options. PG should be monitored in the range of [4450 - 4550] [8]. L - **Market Review**: The 5 - 9 spread increased by 16 yuan/ton day - on - day [10]. - **Basic Logic**: In terms of supply, new production capacity has been put into operation this year, and some devices have started. Some import windows are closed. In terms of demand, the agricultural film season is coming to an end. In the short - term, it will stabilize following the cost side, and in the long - term, high device commissioning pressure and a potential decline in crude oil prices suggest a bearish outlook on rebounds [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is advisable to sell on rallies. L should be monitored in the range of [7150 - 7300] [11]. PP - **Market Review**: The L - PP05 spread increased by 22 yuan/ton day - on - day, and the PP - 3MA05 spread increased by 54 yuan/ton [13]. - **Basic Logic**: In terms of supply, new production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is still abundant in the short - term. Anti - sanctions increase the expected supply contraction of PDH devices, while the enthusiasm for oil - based production has increased. In the long - term, high device commissioning pressure and a potential decline in crude oil prices suggest a bearish outlook on rebounds [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term observation is recommended, and selling on rallies is advisable in the medium - term. PP should be monitored in the range of [7150 - 7300] [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: The 5 - 9 spread increased by 8 yuan/ton [16]. - **Basic Logic**: In terms of supply, new production capacity has been added, and the capacity utilization rate is 79%. In terms of demand, the decline in real estate completion area has narrowed, and downstream operating rates have seasonally recovered. Exports have increased significantly. With the decrease in calcium carbide price and the start of spring maintenance, the low - valuation bottom has support [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term observation is recommended, and buying on dips is advisable. V should be monitored in the range of [4800 - 5000] [17]. PX - **Market Review**: On April 11, the spot price of PX in East China was 6,865 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX05 contract closed at 6,054 yuan/ton (- 50). The East China basis was 811 (+ 50) yuan/ton [18]. - **Basic Logic**: PX device maintenance is carried out as planned, which eases supply - side pressure. However, downstream PTA device maintenance also affects demand. The expected decline in crude oil prices and high inventory levels lead to a weakening trend [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX should be monitored in the range of [5910, 6050] [20]. PTA - **Market Review**: On April 11, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,310 (+ 80) yuan/ton, and the TA05 contract closed at 4,358 (+ 8) yuan/ton. The TA5 - 9 spread was - 46 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was - 48 (+ 72) yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: PTA device maintenance eases supply - side pressure, but downstream polyester demand is expected to weaken, and inventory levels are high. The expected decline in crude oil prices also affects the market [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA should be monitored in the range of [4300, 4400] [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On April 11, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,315 (- 15) yuan/ton, and the EG05 contract closed at 4,279 (+ 8) yuan/ton. The EG5 - 9 spread was - 54 (+ 5) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 36 (- 23) yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance and low imports ease supply - side pressure, but demand is expected to weaken, and cost support is weak [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG should be monitored in the range of [4150, 4280] [24]. Bottle Chips - **Market Review**: On April 11, the spot price of water - grade pet bottle chips in East China was 5,600 (+ 180) yuan/ton, and the PR main contract closed at 5,596 (+ 248) yuan/ton. The East China basis was - 28 (- 70) yuan/ton [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Device capacity utilization has increased, leading to increased supply pressure. Although demand is expected to improve, cost support is weak, and inventory has rebounded [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PR should be monitored in the range of [5500, 5640] [26]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market has partially increased prices, the futures market has had larger fluctuations, the main contract basis has expanded, and warehouse receipts have increased [28]. - **Basic Logic**: At the macro level, the impact of tariffs on market sentiment has eased, and there are expectations for incremental policies. Supply has increased slightly, demand has seasonally recovered, but inventory reduction is slow, and cost support is weak. The expansion of delivery warehouses suppresses the near - month contract [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG should be monitored in the range of [1130, 1160] [28]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash has been partially adjusted upwards, the futures market has been consolidating at a low level, the main contract basis has narrowed, warehouse receipts have remained unchanged, and effective forecasts have increased [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The market is still significantly affected by macro - sentiment. Supply has increased due to device capacity utilization and new production capacity. Demand is weak, and although inventory has decreased slightly, the pressure remains high [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA should be monitored in the range of [1310, 1340] [31].

中辉有色观点 | | 11 Status Career | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | C 100 | 11 | Carrent of the C | | J | | | | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 强势冲高 | 特朗普反复无常，中美关税博弈剧烈，美国通胀数据接连走低，美联储暗示出 | | | | 手，各国流动性放松黄金爆涨。长期看，国际秩序破坏，长期不确定困扰持续， | | | | 各主体购金动力积极，黄金长期战略配置价值持续存在【740-780】 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 黄金冲破天际，全球需求释放或再现，商品市场波动剧烈，未来刺激预期较大， 白银跟随黄金和基本金属波动，仍处于震荡区间附近，操作上区间思路对待。 | | | | 【8000-8500】 | | 铜 | 反弹 | 关税冲击告一段落，市场情绪逐渐修复，海内外降息概率回升，美元指数跌破 100 | | | | 关口，短期铜或区间震荡，等待更多宏观指引，铜精矿加工费深度倒挂，下游逢低 | | | | 采购积极，铜把握逢低试 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 高位整理趋弱 | 巴西大豆产量展望基本维持稳定。阿根廷方面，未来十五天降雨有再度降雨不足的 | | | | 可能。4 月美国将对中国加征 10%关税，中国发起反制，对美豆加征 10%的关税。 | | | | 美豆贸易争端暂告一段落。美豆种植意向面积公布结果同比环比调减，但美豆期末 | | 豆粕 | | 库存高于预期。国内市场方面，本周国内港口及大豆库存环比增加、豆粕库存环比 | | | | 延续下降，预计下周豆粕库存有望回升。4 月国内大豆进口开始放量，4-6 月月均 | | | | 进口 1000 万吨以上。周末市场传出特朗普停止征税的消息，警惕国内豆粕重心再 | | | | 度转至基本面逻辑的调整风险。主力【3050，3100】 美对加籽加征关税利空加籽下跌。国内市场本周沿海油厂菜籽及菜粕库存环比下 | | 菜粕 | 震荡整理中趋 | | | | | 降，压力边际改善。中国对加拿大菜粕菜油加征 100%关税，但未包含菜籽，且可 | | | | 交割菜粕途径较多，实际利多影响有限。全国菜粕库存远高于过去两 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3164 | -7 | 热卷01 | 3269 | -12 | | 螺纹05 | 3050 | -11 | 热卷05 | 3219 | -16 | | 螺纹10 | 3131 | -8 | 热卷10 | 3242 | -13 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2970 | 0 | 张家港废钢 | 2080 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3180 | 0 | 热卷:天津 | 3230 | -10 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3160 | -10 | 热卷:上海 | 3250 | -30 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3170 | -10 | 热卷:杭州 | 3270 | -20 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3460 | 0 | 热卷： 广州 | 3250 | -20 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3270 | 0 | 热卷：成都 | 3360 | 0 | | 基差 | ...