1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual investment outlooks for different varieties: - **Bullish**: Crude oil (rebound) [1][2] - **Bearish**: PX (weak), bottle chips (weak), glass (weak), methanol (bearish) [1][18][25] - **Consolidation**: LPG (consolidation), L (sideways), PP (sideways), PVC (sideways), PTA (sideways), soda ash (consolidation), urea (sideways) [1] - **Slightly Bullish**: Ethylene glycol (slightly bullish) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various chemical products, including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, bottle chips, glass, soda ash, methanol, and urea. It provides market outlooks, basic logics, and trading strategies for each product based on factors such as supply - demand balance, cost, and macro - economic environment [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Outlook**: Rebound [1][2] - **Basic Logic**: Tariff war eases, OPEC + plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May 2025. EIA expects global crude oil demand growth to slow. US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels to 442.3 million barrels in the week ending April 4 [4]. - **Strategy**: Long - term, due to tariff wars, new energy impact, and OPEC + expansion, supply will be in excess, and the oil price center will shift down. Short - term, recommend selling put options. SC price range to watch is [465 - 480] [5]. LPG - **Market Outlook**: Consolidation [1] - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end oil prices are in low - level consolidation. LPG fundamentals are slightly positive, with high basis. PDH profit improved, and port inventories decreased [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the cost - end oil price to stabilize. Suggest temporary wait - and - see, then buy call options or sell put options. PG price range to watch is [4350 - 4450] [8]. L - **Market Outlook**: Sideways [1] - **Basic Logic**: Spot price decline slows, import is expected to shrink. Short - term, it follows the cost - end. Long - term, high new - capacity pressure and falling oil prices make the rebound bearish [11]. - **Strategy**: Go short on rallies. L price range to watch is [7150 - 7300] [11]. PP - **Market Outlook**: Sideways [1] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term supply is abundant. Anti - sanctions may reduce PDH supply, but oil - based production enthusiasm increases. Long - term, high new - capacity pressure and falling oil prices make the rebound bearish [14]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see, medium - term go short on rallies. PP price range to watch is [7150 - 7300] [14]. PVC - **Market Outlook**: Sideways [1] - **Basic Logic**: Spring maintenance starts, social inventories decline. Low - valuation on the futures market is supported. Pay attention to spring maintenance intensity and macro - policies [17]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see, go long on pullbacks. V price range to watch is [4900 - 5000] [17]. PX - **Market Outlook**: Weak [1] - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, but demand from PTA devices (also under maintenance) is weak. Crude oil price is expected to fall, and PX inventory is high [19]. - **Strategy**: PX price range to watch is [5920 - 6080] [20]. PTA - **Market Outlook**: Sideways [1] - **Basic Logic**: PTA devices are under planned maintenance, reducing supply pressure. However, downstream polyester demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is high. Crude oil price is expected to fall [22]. - **Strategy**: TA price range to watch is [4250 - 4360] [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Outlook**: Slightly Bullish [1] - **Basic Logic**: Devices are under planned maintenance, and import volume is low. Demand from polyester is high but may weaken. Cost support is weak, and supply is reduced due to US tariff policies [24]. - **Strategy**: EG price range to watch is [4250 - 4350] [24]. Bottle Chips - **Market Outlook**: Weak [1] - **Basic Logic**: Device capacity utilization increases, increasing supply pressure. Soft - drink consumption is in the off - season, but export is good. Inventory is rising, and cost support is weak [26]. - **Strategy**: PR price range to watch is [5550 - 5650] [26]. Glass - **Market Outlook**: Weak [1] - **Basic Logic**: Global tariff news disturbs the market. Supply is low but increasing slightly, demand recovers seasonally, and cost is falling. Inventory is decreasing, and registered warrants are increasing [28]. - **Strategy**: FG price range to watch is [1130 - 1160] [28]. Soda Ash - **Market Outlook**: Consolidation [1] - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases as some devices increase production and new capacity is released. Demand is mainly for刚需. Inventory is slightly decreasing, but pressure remains [30]. - **Strategy**: 05 contract should pay attention to the 10 - day moving average pressure. Methanol - **Market Outlook**: Bearish [1] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas device operating rates are high, increasing supply. Demand is weakening, and cost support is weak [1]. - **Strategy**: Go short on rallies. MA price range to watch is [2350 - 2400] [1]. Urea - **Market Outlook**: Sideways [1] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is high, and downstream demand is expected to weaken. However, fertilizer export is good. Inventory is seasonally decreasing but still relatively high [1]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing up. UR price range to watch is [1840 - 1890] [1].

中辉有色观点 | | 111 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T 7 | | A 16 16 | X | | 品种 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | | | 美国通胀低于预期，特朗普出尔反尔，中美关税博弈剧烈，各国流动性放松救 | | 黄金 强势冲高 | 市刺激黄金隔夜大涨。长期看，国际秩序破坏，长期不确定困扰仍在，各主体 | | | 购金动力积极，黄金长期战略配置价值持续存在【730-760】 | | | 情绪反复，虽然特朗普暂停其他国家关税，但关税情绪冲击尚未结束，市场波 | | 白银 宽幅调整 | 动剧烈，未来刺激预期较大，白银跟随黄金和基本金属波动，仍处于震荡区间 | | | 附近，操作上区间思路对待。【7745-8040】 | | 铜 反弹 | 特朗普关税政策朝令夕改，市场情绪剧烈波动，铜反弹冲高后承压震荡，短期多空 | | | 双杀，建议暂时观望，不要火中取栗。沪铜关注区间【72000，76000】 | | | 特朗普关税政策朝令夕改，市场情绪剧烈波动，短期锌反弹后震荡盘整，建议空单 | | 锌 反弹 | 部分逢低止盈兑现，中长期 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 盘整 | 美国对部分国家暂停加征关税，关税战争风险继续释放。美国掀起全球关税战，市场担 | | | | 忧宏观经济前景，市场不断释放关税风险；OPEC+计划增产幅度超预期。SC【450-480】 | | LPG | 盘整 | 成本端油价低位盘整，液化气震荡蓄势。关税风险继续释放，油价盘整；现货偏强，基 | | | | 差处于高位；供需面多空并存，港口去库，下游 PDH 开工率下降。PG【4400-4500】 | | L | 震荡 | 原油回落，现货跌价，厂库累库，国内反制裁对供给利多驱动有限，反弹偏空。中长期， | | | | 装置投产压力偏高叠加原油下行，逢高偏空。L【7100-7300】 | | PP | 震荡 | 主力移仓换月，厂库累库，反制裁加剧 PDH 装置供给收缩预期，短期区间震荡。中长期， | | | | 装置投产压力偏高叠加原油下行，反弹偏空。PP【7100-7300】 | | PVC | 震荡 | 社库连续 5 周下降，氯碱成本支撑好转，盘面低位震荡。4-5 月常规春检陆续开始，盘面 | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 巴西大豆产量展望基本维持稳定。阿根廷方面，未来十五天降雨有再度降雨不足的 可能。4 月美国将对中国加征 10%关税，中国发起反制，对美豆加征 10%的关税。 | | | | 美豆贸易争端暂告一段落。美豆种植意向面积公布结果同比环比调减，但美豆期末 | | | | 库存高于预期。国内市场方面，本周国内港口及大豆库存环比增加、豆粕库存环比 | | 豆粕 | 短线高位整理 | 延续下降，预计下周豆粕库存有望回升。4 月国内大豆进口开始放量，4-6 月月均 | | | 进口 | 1000 万吨以上。近日中美贸易摩擦再度升级，中国对美加征关税达到 84%， | | | | 这意味着美豆进口已经彻底阻断，后续的关税升级对豆粕的进一步利多影响将大幅 | | | | 削弱。在缺乏进一步利多支持下，继续看多追多操作需谨慎。主力【3040，3120】 | | | | 美对加籽加征关税利空加籽下跌。国内市场本周沿海油厂菜籽及菜粕库存环比下 降，压力边际改善。中国对加拿大菜粕菜油加征 100%关税，但未包含菜籽，且可 | | ...

中辉有色观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 白银 宽幅调整 虽然特朗普暂停其他国家关税，但关税情绪冲击尚未结束，全球市场交易经济 衰退，交易"滞"逻辑，白银年后涨幅居首，故关税落地价格调整幅度较大， 目前价格跌入前期的震荡区间附近，操作上等待企稳。【7500-7940】 铜 延续回落 特朗普关税政策朝令夕改，市场情绪剧烈波动，铜低位震荡，短期多空双杀，建议 暂时观望，不要火中取栗。沪铜关注区间【70000，75000】 锌 小幅反弹 特朗普关税政策朝令夕改，市场情绪剧烈波动，短期锌止跌小幅反弹，建议空单部 分逢低止盈兑现，中长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会，沪锌关注区间【21800， 22800】 铅 承压 海外关税扰动市场，国内精炼铅市场供需双降，铅锭社会库存延续累积，下游 蓄电池消费处于淡季，铅价短期承压走势。【16100-17100】 锡 承压 全球关税延续扰动，缅甸及非洲锡矿端扰动仍存，国内冶炼产能受矿端紧张影 响下滑，下游焊料企业消费尚可，锡价短期承压走势。【241000-255000】 铝 承压 海外市场忧虑仍存，电解铝国内供应小幅增长，铝锭及铝棒社会库存延续去化， 铝产品出口或受加关税 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 关税问题反复，市场恐慌性情绪缓解，中美仍为博弈主角。基本面方面， | | | | 螺纹产量已高于去年同期，但需求仍然偏弱，为同期最低水平，暂时未出 | | 螺纹钢 | 短期反弹 | 现需求整体性转强。目前市场等待政策发力，若政策力度较强，或继续出 | | | | 现阶段性反弹行情。【3050，3200】 | | | | 热卷从供需数据上看，暂时无明显矛盾，均为同期高位。但贸易摩擦升级 以及越南、韩国反倾销政策或对出口预期产生影响。中期基本面仍有趋于 | | 热卷 | 短期反弹 | | | | | 宽松的倾向，美国关税政策变化后全球风险情绪缓解，短线或反弹。【3150， | | | | 3300】 | | | | 本期发到货双降，铁水产量继续上升，港口去库，基本面阶段性好转。下 | | 铁矿石 | 暂且观望 | 游需求有望继续改善。而关税加码预期加重资金恐慌情绪，短线暂且观望。 | | | | 避险情绪主导，短线暂避锋芒，5-9 正套持有【655,725】 | | | | 焦炭基本面边际出现一定改善，但焦炭产 ...

【行情回顾】：隔夜国际油价企稳反弹，WTI 上升 3.76%，Brent 上升 4.23%，SC 下降 3.70%。 【基本逻辑】：核心驱动，4 月 3 日，特朗普对众多贸易伙伴加征关税；4 月 4 日，中国宣布将对美 征收反制关税；4 月 4 日，OPEC+最新会议决定 5 月继续增产，计划每月增产两次；4 月 8 日，美国 继续扩大关税战争；4 月 9 日，美国对部分国家暂停加征关税。供给方面，截至 4 月 7 日当周，山 东独立炼厂原油到港量 129.7 万吨，环比下跌 168.8 万吨，跌幅为 56.55%；欧佩克+将在 2025 年 5 月实施 41.1 万桶/天的产量调整，相当于三个月的增量。需求方面，4 月 7 日，印度石油公布数据显 示，印度 3 月份燃料需求创下 10 个月新高，较前一个月增长 9.3%至 2091 万吨。库存方面，EIA 数 据显示，截至 4 月 4 日当周，美国商业原油库存增加 260 万桶至 4.423 亿桶，汽油库存减少 160 万 桶至 2.360 亿桶，馏分油库存减少 350 万桶至 1.111 亿桶，战略原油储备增加 30 万桶至 3.967 亿桶。 【策略推荐 ...

| 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | 品种 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 巴西大豆产量展望基本维持稳定。阿根廷方面，未来十五天降雨有再度降雨不足的 | 可能。4 | 月美国将对中国加征 | 10%关税，中国发起反制，对美豆加征 | 10%的关税。 | | | | | | 美豆贸易争端暂告一段落。美豆种植意向面积公布结果同比环比调减，但美豆期末 | 库存高于预期。国内市场方面，本周国内港口及大豆库存环比增加、豆粕库存环比 | | | | | | | | | 豆粕 | 短线上涨 | 延续下降，预计下周豆粕库存有望回升。4 | 月国内大豆进口开始放量，4-6 | 月月均 | 进口 | 1000 | 万吨以上。近日中美贸易摩擦再度升级，昨日美进一步加征关税至 | 104%， | | 中国是否会采取反制仍需观察，昨日豆粕延续高位运行等待事件进一步指引。大豆 | 进口端预计实质影响较低，但受市场情绪影响，目前豆粕暂以事件性行情对待。看 | | | | | | | | | 多短线参与为宜。主力【3030 ...

1 原油：关税战争再度加码，油价继续下挫 | | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油期货价格 | | | | | | 价格走势 | | WTI主力 | 美元/桶 | 59. 58 | 60. 70 | -1.12 | -1.85% | | | Brent主力 | 美元/桶 | 62. 82 | 64. 21 | -1.39 | -2.16% | | | SC主力 | 元/桶 | 481. 7 | 510. 1 | -28.4 | -5.57% | | | 原油现货价格 | | | | | | | | 布伦特Dtd | 美元/桶 | 66. 67 | 68. 22 | -1.55 | -2.27% | | | 美国WTI | 美元/桶 | 59. 58 | 60. 7 | -1.12 | -1.85% | | | 阿曼 | 美元/桶 | 64. 54 | 70. 66 | -6. 12 | -8.66% | | | 跨市场价差 | | | | 涨跌 | | | | Brent-WTI ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 中美关税博弈剧烈，流动性危机没有解除，黄金价格短期或有反复。长期看， | | | 高位调整 | 美国关税核弹开启另一个混乱纪元，未来变数较大，长期不确定困扰仍在，短 | | | | 期等待调整结束，长期战略配置价值仍存【700-728】 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 逻辑延续，关税冲击尚未结束，全球市场继续交易经济衰退，交易"滞"逻辑， 白银年后涨幅居首，故关税落地价格调整幅度较大，目前价格跌入前期的震荡 | | | | 区间附近，操作上等待企稳，不接刀子。【7500-7900】 | | 铜 | 延续回落 | 全球经济和金融危机担忧爆发，中方对美强硬反制后，特朗普威胁再度加码 50% 关税，市场恐慌情绪暂时难以缓解，铜延续回落，短期多空双杀，建议暂时观望， | | | | 不要火中取栗。沪铜关注区间【70000，75000】 | | 锌 | 承压回落 | 前期锌高位空单继续持有，中长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会，沪锌关注区 | | | | 间【21800，22800】 | | 铅 ...