| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 偏弱 | 机构下调 25 年需求增速，油价偏弱。近期美国豁免中国部分产品"对等关税"，关税战 | | | | 争缓和；EIA、OPEC、IEA 最新月报均下调 25 年原油需求增速。SC【465-480】 | | LPG | 震荡 | 现货下降，基差回归，液化气低位震荡。现货连续下降，基差下降，但仍处高位；供需 | | | | 面多空并存，港口去库，下游 PDH 开工率下降。PG【4300-4400】 | | L | 偏弱 | 期现齐跌，基差走强，进口存缩量预期，停车比例偏低，震荡偏弱。中长期，装置投产 | | | | 压力偏高叠加原油下行，反弹偏空。L【7150-7250】 | | PP | 偏弱 | 停车比例上升，反制裁加剧 PDH 供给收缩预期，油制开工积极性提高，震荡偏弱。中长 | | | | 期，装置投产压力偏高叠加原油下行，反弹偏空。PP【7050-7200】 | | PVC | 震荡 | 主力移仓换月，春检陆续启动，盘面升水结构仓单持续注册，低估值底部有支撑。关注 | | | | 春检力度及 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 基本面方面，螺纹供需双增，但产量已高于去年同期，但需求仍明显低于 | | 螺纹钢 | 低位运行 | 去年，强度偏弱。高铁水产量压制市场预期。短期市场低位震荡运行，市 | | | | 场对政策仍有期待，但建筑钢材偏弱的需求仍未明显改善，等待驱动到来。 | | | | 【3050，3200】 | | | | 热卷从供需数据上看，暂时无明显矛盾，均为同期高位。但贸易摩擦升级 | | | | 以及越南、韩国反倾销政策或对出口预期产生影响。中期基本面仍有趋于 | | 热卷 | 低位运行 | 宽松的倾向，短期市场低位震荡运行，后期国内若有政策发力，或出现阶 | | | | 段性反弹行情。【3150，3300】 | | | | 发到货双增，铁水产量继续上升，港口继续去库，基本面中性略偏强。下 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 游需求仍在改善，但表需有见顶担忧。单边短线参与，5-9 正套持有 | | | | 【670,750】 | | | | 焦炭首轮提涨落地，对市场情绪有所提振。铁水产量升至高位，钢厂仍然 | | | | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 高位整理趋弱 | 中美贸易加征关税事件进一步利多影响有限。南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植即 | | | | 将开启。国内港口及油厂大豆连续两周累库，本周大豆开机回升，预计下周豆粕库 | | | | 存有望逐步进入累库周期。4-6 月月均进口 1000 万吨以上。盘面上，受华北大风导 | | | | 致现货短暂供应迟滞，以及中国在巴西进口大豆明确追溯来源引发市场看多情绪。 | | | | 昨日豆粕期价收涨。但由于短期边际供应增加，年内大豆供应预计难有较大影响的 | | | | 情况下，豆粕预计短期将逐步回归基本面。主力【3075，3170】 | | | 震荡整理中趋 | 国内菜粕库存远高于过去两年同期，加上 5 月国内迎来新季菜籽收获上市。菜粕短 | | | | 期供应预计充足。豆菜粕现货价差回归后，菜粕替代优势再度显现。盘面上，菜粕 | | 菜粕 | | 短期高位震荡，中美贸易加征关税事件影响有降温趋向，警惕豆粕端利多炒作结束 | | | 弱 | 后可能面临的基本面逻辑下的调整风险。主力【2650,2 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 强势 | 关税乱入扰乱全球秩序，大国博弈剧烈，美联储暗示出手，各国流动性放松， 黄金强势。长期看，国际秩序破坏，长期不确定困扰持续，各主体购金动力积 | | | | 极，黄金长期战略配置价值持续存在【740-780】 | | | | 基本面上全球需求释放或再现，商品市场波动剧烈，未来刺激预期较大，品种 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 属性方面，白银弹性大跟随黄金和基本金属波动，仍处于大的震荡区间附近， | | | | 操作上区间思路对待。【8000-8500】 | | 铜 | 反弹 | 关税冲击告一段落，市场情绪逐渐修复，海内外降息概率回升，短期铜反弹力度已 经开始减弱，铜需要区间震荡来充分完成多空换手，把握逢低试多机会，中长期依 | | | | 旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【75000，77000】 | | 锌 | 反弹承压 | 国内库存累积，终端需求偏弱，锌上行动力趋缓，反弹承压，中长期看，锌供 | | | | 增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【22000，23000】 | | 铅 | 反 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil is expected to fluctuate. The tariff war has eased, leading to an oil price rebound, but OPEC has lowered the 2025 crude oil demand growth rate, and OPEC+ plans to increase production more than expected [1]. - LPG is expected to rebound. It follows the oil price rebound, with the tariff risk continuing to be released, strong spot prices, and a high basis. The supply - demand situation has both long and short factors [1]. - L is expected to fluctuate. With an increase in warehouse receipts, an expected reduction in imports, and a planned startup of Exxon at the end of the month, it will stabilize in the short - term following the cost side. In the long - term, high device commissioning pressure and a potential decline in crude oil prices suggest a bearish outlook on rebounds [1]. - PP is expected to fluctuate. Spot prices have narrow fluctuations. Anti - sanctions increase the expected supply contraction of PDH devices, while the enthusiasm for oil - based production has increased. In the long - term, high device commissioning pressure and a potential decline in crude oil prices suggest a bearish outlook on rebounds [1]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate. With the price of calcium carbide decreasing and spring maintenance starting, the low - valuation bottom has support. Short - term observation is recommended, and buying on dips is advisable [1]. - PX is expected to be weak. Device maintenance is carried out as planned, and the improvement in supply - demand is limited. Affected by tariffs and OPEC+ production increase policies, the expected decline in crude oil prices and high inventory levels lead to a weakening trend [1]. - PTA is expected to be weak. Device maintenance eases supply - side pressure, but downstream polyester demand is expected to weaken, and inventory levels are high. The expected decline in crude oil prices also affects the market [1]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate. Device maintenance and low imports ease supply - side pressure, but demand is expected to weaken, and cost support is weak [1]. - Bottle chips are expected to be weak. Device capacity utilization has increased, leading to increased supply pressure. Although demand is expected to improve, cost support is weak, and inventory has rebounded [1]. - Glass is expected to consolidate. The expansion of delivery warehouses and an increase in registered warehouse receipts, along with weak spot price increases and cost support, lead to a 5 - 9 reverse spread [1]. - Soda ash is under pressure. Supply is gradually recovering, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory levels are relatively high [1]. - Methanol is bearish. High domestic and overseas device operating rates lead to increased supply, while demand shows signs of weakening, and cost support is weak [1]. - Urea is bearish. Supply pressure remains high, downstream demand is expected to weaken, and although fertilizer exports are relatively good, inventory levels are slightly high [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices were consolidating at a low level. WTI decreased by 0.73%, Brent increased by 0.19%, and SC increased by 0.97% [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the easing of the tariff war. In terms of supply, OPEC+ will adjust production by 411,000 barrels per day in May 2025, and the March production increased by 30,000 barrels per day. In terms of demand, OPEC and EIA have both lowered the 2025 global oil demand growth forecast. In terms of inventory, as of April 4, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 2.6 million barrels [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, there is long - term oversupply, and the oil price center will shift down. In the short - term, it is recommended to sell put options. SC should be monitored in the range of [465 - 480] [4]. LPG - **Market Review**: On April 14, the PG main contract closed at 4,405 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% compared to the previous period. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [6]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the strong fundamental situation of LPG itself. After the tariff on US propane, the import cost has increased, and the spot market is strong. In terms of device dynamics, some devices have adjusted their production. In terms of cost - profit, PDH device profit has decreased, while alkylation device profit has increased. Supply has increased slightly, demand has shown mixed trends, and port inventory has decreased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: LPG is undervalued, and it is recommended to buy call options or sell put options. PG should be monitored in the range of [4450 - 4550] [8]. L - **Market Review**: The 5 - 9 spread increased by 16 yuan/ton day - on - day [10]. - **Basic Logic**: In terms of supply, new production capacity has been put into operation this year, and some devices have started. Some import windows are closed. In terms of demand, the agricultural film season is coming to an end. In the short - term, it will stabilize following the cost side, and in the long - term, high device commissioning pressure and a potential decline in crude oil prices suggest a bearish outlook on rebounds [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is advisable to sell on rallies. L should be monitored in the range of [7150 - 7300] [11]. PP - **Market Review**: The L - PP05 spread increased by 22 yuan/ton day - on - day, and the PP - 3MA05 spread increased by 54 yuan/ton [13]. - **Basic Logic**: In terms of supply, new production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is still abundant in the short - term. Anti - sanctions increase the expected supply contraction of PDH devices, while the enthusiasm for oil - based production has increased. In the long - term, high device commissioning pressure and a potential decline in crude oil prices suggest a bearish outlook on rebounds [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term observation is recommended, and selling on rallies is advisable in the medium - term. PP should be monitored in the range of [7150 - 7300] [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: The 5 - 9 spread increased by 8 yuan/ton [16]. - **Basic Logic**: In terms of supply, new production capacity has been added, and the capacity utilization rate is 79%. In terms of demand, the decline in real estate completion area has narrowed, and downstream operating rates have seasonally recovered. Exports have increased significantly. With the decrease in calcium carbide price and the start of spring maintenance, the low - valuation bottom has support [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term observation is recommended, and buying on dips is advisable. V should be monitored in the range of [4800 - 5000] [17]. PX - **Market Review**: On April 11, the spot price of PX in East China was 6,865 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX05 contract closed at 6,054 yuan/ton (- 50). The East China basis was 811 (+ 50) yuan/ton [18]. - **Basic Logic**: PX device maintenance is carried out as planned, which eases supply - side pressure. However, downstream PTA device maintenance also affects demand. The expected decline in crude oil prices and high inventory levels lead to a weakening trend [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX should be monitored in the range of [5910, 6050] [20]. PTA - **Market Review**: On April 11, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,310 (+ 80) yuan/ton, and the TA05 contract closed at 4,358 (+ 8) yuan/ton. The TA5 - 9 spread was - 46 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was - 48 (+ 72) yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: PTA device maintenance eases supply - side pressure, but downstream polyester demand is expected to weaken, and inventory levels are high. The expected decline in crude oil prices also affects the market [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA should be monitored in the range of [4300, 4400] [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On April 11, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,315 (- 15) yuan/ton, and the EG05 contract closed at 4,279 (+ 8) yuan/ton. The EG5 - 9 spread was - 54 (+ 5) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 36 (- 23) yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance and low imports ease supply - side pressure, but demand is expected to weaken, and cost support is weak [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG should be monitored in the range of [4150, 4280] [24]. Bottle Chips - **Market Review**: On April 11, the spot price of water - grade pet bottle chips in East China was 5,600 (+ 180) yuan/ton, and the PR main contract closed at 5,596 (+ 248) yuan/ton. The East China basis was - 28 (- 70) yuan/ton [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Device capacity utilization has increased, leading to increased supply pressure. Although demand is expected to improve, cost support is weak, and inventory has rebounded [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PR should be monitored in the range of [5500, 5640] [26]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market has partially increased prices, the futures market has had larger fluctuations, the main contract basis has expanded, and warehouse receipts have increased [28]. - **Basic Logic**: At the macro level, the impact of tariffs on market sentiment has eased, and there are expectations for incremental policies. Supply has increased slightly, demand has seasonally recovered, but inventory reduction is slow, and cost support is weak. The expansion of delivery warehouses suppresses the near - month contract [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG should be monitored in the range of [1130, 1160] [28]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash has been partially adjusted upwards, the futures market has been consolidating at a low level, the main contract basis has narrowed, warehouse receipts have remained unchanged, and effective forecasts have increased [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The market is still significantly affected by macro - sentiment. Supply has increased due to device capacity utilization and new production capacity. Demand is weak, and although inventory has decreased slightly, the pressure remains high [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA should be monitored in the range of [1310, 1340] [31].

中辉有色观点 | | 11 Status Career | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | C 100 | 11 | Carrent of the C | | J | | | | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 强势冲高 | 特朗普反复无常，中美关税博弈剧烈，美国通胀数据接连走低，美联储暗示出 | | | | 手，各国流动性放松黄金爆涨。长期看，国际秩序破坏，长期不确定困扰持续， | | | | 各主体购金动力积极，黄金长期战略配置价值持续存在【740-780】 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 黄金冲破天际，全球需求释放或再现，商品市场波动剧烈，未来刺激预期较大， 白银跟随黄金和基本金属波动，仍处于震荡区间附近，操作上区间思路对待。 | | | | 【8000-8500】 | | 铜 | 反弹 | 关税冲击告一段落，市场情绪逐渐修复，海内外降息概率回升，美元指数跌破 100 | | | | 关口，短期铜或区间震荡，等待更多宏观指引，铜精矿加工费深度倒挂，下游逢低 | | | | 采购积极，铜把握逢低试 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 高位整理趋弱 | 巴西大豆产量展望基本维持稳定。阿根廷方面，未来十五天降雨有再度降雨不足的 | | | | 可能。4 月美国将对中国加征 10%关税，中国发起反制，对美豆加征 10%的关税。 | | | | 美豆贸易争端暂告一段落。美豆种植意向面积公布结果同比环比调减，但美豆期末 | | 豆粕 | | 库存高于预期。国内市场方面，本周国内港口及大豆库存环比增加、豆粕库存环比 | | | | 延续下降，预计下周豆粕库存有望回升。4 月国内大豆进口开始放量，4-6 月月均 | | | | 进口 1000 万吨以上。周末市场传出特朗普停止征税的消息，警惕国内豆粕重心再 | | | | 度转至基本面逻辑的调整风险。主力【3050，3100】 美对加籽加征关税利空加籽下跌。国内市场本周沿海油厂菜籽及菜粕库存环比下 | | 菜粕 | 震荡整理中趋 | | | | | 降，压力边际改善。中国对加拿大菜粕菜油加征 100%关税，但未包含菜籽，且可 | | | | 交割菜粕途径较多，实际利多影响有限。全国菜粕库存远高于过去两 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3164 | -7 | 热卷01 | 3269 | -12 | | 螺纹05 | 3050 | -11 | 热卷05 | 3219 | -16 | | 螺纹10 | 3131 | -8 | 热卷10 | 3242 | -13 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2970 | 0 | 张家港废钢 | 2080 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3180 | 0 | 热卷:天津 | 3230 | -10 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3160 | -10 | 热卷:上海 | 3250 | -30 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3170 | -10 | 热卷:杭州 | 3270 | -20 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3460 | 0 | 热卷： 广州 | 3250 | -20 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3270 | 0 | 热卷：成都 | 3360 | 0 | | 基差 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual investment outlooks for different varieties: - **Bullish**: Crude oil (rebound) [1][2] - **Bearish**: PX (weak), bottle chips (weak), glass (weak), methanol (bearish) [1][18][25] - **Consolidation**: LPG (consolidation), L (sideways), PP (sideways), PVC (sideways), PTA (sideways), soda ash (consolidation), urea (sideways) [1] - **Slightly Bullish**: Ethylene glycol (slightly bullish) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various chemical products, including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, bottle chips, glass, soda ash, methanol, and urea. It provides market outlooks, basic logics, and trading strategies for each product based on factors such as supply - demand balance, cost, and macro - economic environment [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Outlook**: Rebound [1][2] - **Basic Logic**: Tariff war eases, OPEC + plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May 2025. EIA expects global crude oil demand growth to slow. US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels to 442.3 million barrels in the week ending April 4 [4]. - **Strategy**: Long - term, due to tariff wars, new energy impact, and OPEC + expansion, supply will be in excess, and the oil price center will shift down. Short - term, recommend selling put options. SC price range to watch is [465 - 480] [5]. LPG - **Market Outlook**: Consolidation [1] - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end oil prices are in low - level consolidation. LPG fundamentals are slightly positive, with high basis. PDH profit improved, and port inventories decreased [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the cost - end oil price to stabilize. Suggest temporary wait - and - see, then buy call options or sell put options. PG price range to watch is [4350 - 4450] [8]. L - **Market Outlook**: Sideways [1] - **Basic Logic**: Spot price decline slows, import is expected to shrink. Short - term, it follows the cost - end. Long - term, high new - capacity pressure and falling oil prices make the rebound bearish [11]. - **Strategy**: Go short on rallies. L price range to watch is [7150 - 7300] [11]. PP - **Market Outlook**: Sideways [1] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term supply is abundant. Anti - sanctions may reduce PDH supply, but oil - based production enthusiasm increases. Long - term, high new - capacity pressure and falling oil prices make the rebound bearish [14]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see, medium - term go short on rallies. PP price range to watch is [7150 - 7300] [14]. PVC - **Market Outlook**: Sideways [1] - **Basic Logic**: Spring maintenance starts, social inventories decline. Low - valuation on the futures market is supported. Pay attention to spring maintenance intensity and macro - policies [17]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see, go long on pullbacks. V price range to watch is [4900 - 5000] [17]. PX - **Market Outlook**: Weak [1] - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, but demand from PTA devices (also under maintenance) is weak. Crude oil price is expected to fall, and PX inventory is high [19]. - **Strategy**: PX price range to watch is [5920 - 6080] [20]. PTA - **Market Outlook**: Sideways [1] - **Basic Logic**: PTA devices are under planned maintenance, reducing supply pressure. However, downstream polyester demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is high. Crude oil price is expected to fall [22]. - **Strategy**: TA price range to watch is [4250 - 4360] [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Outlook**: Slightly Bullish [1] - **Basic Logic**: Devices are under planned maintenance, and import volume is low. Demand from polyester is high but may weaken. Cost support is weak, and supply is reduced due to US tariff policies [24]. - **Strategy**: EG price range to watch is [4250 - 4350] [24]. Bottle Chips - **Market Outlook**: Weak [1] - **Basic Logic**: Device capacity utilization increases, increasing supply pressure. Soft - drink consumption is in the off - season, but export is good. Inventory is rising, and cost support is weak [26]. - **Strategy**: PR price range to watch is [5550 - 5650] [26]. Glass - **Market Outlook**: Weak [1] - **Basic Logic**: Global tariff news disturbs the market. Supply is low but increasing slightly, demand recovers seasonally, and cost is falling. Inventory is decreasing, and registered warrants are increasing [28]. - **Strategy**: FG price range to watch is [1130 - 1160] [28]. Soda Ash - **Market Outlook**: Consolidation [1] - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases as some devices increase production and new capacity is released. Demand is mainly for刚需. Inventory is slightly decreasing, but pressure remains [30]. - **Strategy**: 05 contract should pay attention to the 10 - day moving average pressure. Methanol - **Market Outlook**: Bearish [1] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas device operating rates are high, increasing supply. Demand is weakening, and cost support is weak [1]. - **Strategy**: Go short on rallies. MA price range to watch is [2350 - 2400] [1]. Urea - **Market Outlook**: Sideways [1] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is high, and downstream demand is expected to weaken. However, fertilizer export is good. Inventory is seasonally decreasing but still relatively high [1]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing up. UR price range to watch is [1840 - 1890] [1].

中辉有色观点 | | 111 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T 7 | | A 16 16 | X | | 品种 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | | | 美国通胀低于预期，特朗普出尔反尔，中美关税博弈剧烈，各国流动性放松救 | | 黄金 强势冲高 | 市刺激黄金隔夜大涨。长期看，国际秩序破坏，长期不确定困扰仍在，各主体 | | | 购金动力积极，黄金长期战略配置价值持续存在【730-760】 | | | 情绪反复，虽然特朗普暂停其他国家关税，但关税情绪冲击尚未结束，市场波 | | 白银 宽幅调整 | 动剧烈，未来刺激预期较大，白银跟随黄金和基本金属波动，仍处于震荡区间 | | | 附近，操作上区间思路对待。【7745-8040】 | | 铜 反弹 | 特朗普关税政策朝令夕改，市场情绪剧烈波动，铜反弹冲高后承压震荡，短期多空 | | | 双杀，建议暂时观望，不要火中取栗。沪铜关注区间【72000，76000】 | | | 特朗普关税政策朝令夕改，市场情绪剧烈波动，短期锌反弹后震荡盘整，建议空单 | | 锌 反弹 | 部分逢低止盈兑现，中长期 ...