Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports [1][2][3] Core Views - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game in the shipping market is challenging, so it's advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3] - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, and after a brief rebound, the market is under pressure again. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] - In the face of international situation turmoil, contracts maintain seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see or make light - position attempts for arbitrage strategies [3] Summary by Related Content Shipping Market Data - On August 22 - 25, shipping freight rate indices such as NCFI and SCFIS showed declines. For example, the NCFI (composite index) dropped by 1.59%, and the SCFIS (European route) fell by 8.7% [1] - On August 22, other shipping freight rate indices like SCFI and CCFI also decreased. The SCFI composite index dropped by 44.83 points, and the CCFI (European route) fell by 1.8% [1] Market Strategy - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, try to go long lightly at around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add positions at around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the market trend and set stop - losses [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Due to international situation instability, it's recommended to wait and see or make light - position attempts [3] - Long - term strategy: Take profits when contracts rise, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent trend [3] Market Conditions - On August 26, the main contract 2510 closed at 1318.9, with a decline of 2.76%, a trading volume of 2.58 million lots, and an open interest of 54,400 lots, an increase of 52 lots from the previous day [3] - The 2508 contract's delivery price was 2135.2 [3] Geopolitical Events - The Islamic Cooperation Organization held a special meeting to discuss Israel's aggression against Palestine and issued a joint statement opposing Israel's actions [3] - The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products, which has drawn condemnation from the Indian government [3] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5, the service PMI was 50.7, and the composite PMI rose to 51.1 [2] - The preliminary value of the US August manufacturing PMI was 53.3, and the service PMI was 55.4 [2] Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [3] - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [3] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. Core Viewpoints - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, trading is challenging, so it's advised to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3]. - The spot freight rate is continuously falling, and after a brief rebound, the market is under pressure again. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. Summary by Related Content Shipping Market - From August 22nd to 25th, multiple shipping freight rate indices declined. For example, the NCFI (composite index) dropped 1.59% to 1035.79 points, and the SCFIS (European route) fell 8.7% to 1990.20 points [1]. - On August 26th, the main contract 2510 closed at 1318.9 with a 2.76% decline, a trading volume of 2.58 million lots, and an open interest of 54,400 lots, an increase of 52 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Indicators - The preliminary Eurozone manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5, higher than the forecast of 49.5; the services PMI was 50.7; the composite PMI rose to 51.1, the highest since May 2024 [2]. - The preliminary US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, a 39 - month high, and the services PMI was 55.4 [2]. Policy and Geopolitical Events - The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products, which is a new signal of the White House's plan to raise tariffs [3]. - The Islamic Cooperation Organization held a special meeting to discuss Israel's aggression against Palestine and issued a joint statement opposing the aggression [3]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Risk - takers can try to go long lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Set stop - losses and don't hold losing positions [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [3]. - Long - term strategy: Take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then determine the subsequent direction [3]. Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [3]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [3]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating upward [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - SSE 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - Gold: Oscillating upward [4] - Silver: Oscillating upward [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating downward [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating downward [6] - No. 2 soybeans: Oscillating downward [6] - No. 1 soybeans: Oscillating downward [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating downward [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [11] - PX: On the sidelines [11] - PTA: Oscillating [11] - MEG: Reverse spread [11] - PR: On the sidelines [11] - PF: On the sidelines [11] Core Views - The iron ore market has limited fundamental contradictions and is expected to oscillate, supported by the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and high steel mill profitability [2] - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate upward, with supply-side factors providing support and a potential for further upside if supply continues to decline [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil markets face supply-demand imbalances, with limited supply contraction expected during the military parade and weakening demand, leading to price oscillations [2] - The glass market has a weak short-term supply-demand situation, with inventory accumulation and limited demand recovery due to the real estate downturn [2] - Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate, with the market focusing on the support of the 60-day moving average and the improvement of real demand [2] - Stock index futures and options show different trends, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 expected to rise due to government policies promoting AI development and service trade liberalization [2][4] - Treasury bond prices are expected to oscillate, with the market influenced by interest rate fluctuations and central bank operations [4] - Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate upward, driven by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation expectations [4] - Pulp prices are expected to consolidate, with a weak supply-demand situation and limited cost support [6] - Log prices are expected to range-bound, with stable demand and limited supply pressure [6] - Edible oil prices are expected to oscillate, influenced by factors such as export demand, inventory levels, and weather conditions [6] - Meal prices are expected to oscillate downward, with abundant supply and uncertain demand [6] - Live pig prices are expected to oscillate downward, with increasing supply and weakening demand [8] - Rubber prices are expected to oscillate, with a narrowing supply-demand gap and potential for price increases due to supply-side factors [11] - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets show different trends, with factors such as supply-demand balance, cost fluctuations, and geopolitical situations influencing prices [11] Summary by Category Black Industry - Iron ore: Fundamental contradictions are not prominent, with limited impact on demand from potential高炉限产. Global shipments have declined slightly, but there is no significant inventory accumulation pressure. Prices are expected to oscillate [2] - Coking coal and coke: Affected by coal mine accidents and production restrictions, prices have risen and then adjusted. Supply-side factors support prices, and short-term adjustments are limited. Buying on dips is recommended after the market sentiment stabilizes [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Tangshan's steel mill production restrictions are less than expected, and demand is weak. Supply is expected to contract during the military parade, but the impact is limited. Prices are expected to oscillate [2] Financial Sector - Stock index futures and options: Different indices show different trends, influenced by government policies promoting AI development and service trade liberalization. Long positions are recommended [2][4] - Treasury bonds: Market interest rates are fluctuating, and central bank operations have an impact on prices. Long positions should be held with a light position [4] Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Prices are influenced by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation expectations. The current upward trend is expected to continue, with short-term fluctuations possible [4] Light Industry - Pulp: Supply and demand are both weak, and cost support is limited. Prices are expected to consolidate [6] - Logs: Demand is stable, and supply pressure is limited. Prices are expected to range-bound [6] Oil and Fat Sector - Edible oils: Demand is influenced by export sales and policies, and inventory levels vary. Prices are expected to oscillate, with attention paid to weather conditions and production and sales data [6] - Meals: Supply is abundant, and demand is uncertain. Prices are expected to oscillate downward [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. Prices are expected to oscillate downward [8] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply and demand are gradually balancing, and prices are expected to oscillate. Supply-side factors may drive prices higher in the short term [11] Polyester Sector - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF: Supply-demand balance, cost fluctuations, and geopolitical situations influence prices. Different products show different trends [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating strongly [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - Shanghai 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - Gold: Oscillating strongly [4] - Silver: Oscillating strongly [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Range - bound [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating bullishly [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating bullishly [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating bullishly [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating weakly [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term manufacturing recovery has been interrupted, and the Politburo meeting fell short of expectations, but Powell's signal of interest rate cuts has supported commodities. The market is affected by various factors such as policy, supply and demand, and market sentiment, and different varieties show different trends [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The short - term manufacturing recovery was interrupted, and the Politburo meeting was disappointing, but Powell's signal of interest rate cuts supported commodities. The expectation of domestic blast furnace production restrictions was falsified, and the impact on iron ore demand was small. The global iron ore shipment increased, and the arrival volume also rebounded, but there was no obvious inventory accumulation pressure. Terminal demand was weak, and steel mills had little motivation to cut production actively. It is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Affected by the coal mine accident in Fujian and the initial success of anti - involution, the night trading of coking coal and coke rose sharply. The overall recovery of coal mines was slow, and the inventory of clean coal in coal mines reached the lowest level since March 2024. Downstream enterprises maintained high - level operations, and coal prices were supported in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips after the market sentiment is released [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The production restriction policy of Tangshan steel mills was clear, but the production reduction was less than expected. Building material demand declined, and total demand was difficult to show an anti - seasonal performance. The supply was expected to shrink during the military parade, but the contradiction between supply and demand in the steel market intensified. The spot demand for rebar was weak, and the futures price was expected to adjust downward to find support [2]. - **Glass**: The market sentiment cooled, and the downstream was in the stage of digesting inventory. The supply and demand pattern did not improve significantly. There was no change in the production line, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The possibility of glass factory shutdown during the military parade was low. The downstream inventory was low, but the rigid demand had not recovered. In the long term, glass demand was difficult to rise significantly [2]. - **Soda ash**: The short - term spot was weak, and the futures price followed the macro - driven rise. The improvement of real demand needs to be concerned [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index rose 2.08%, the Shanghai 50 Index rose 2.09%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.89%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.56%. Funds flowed into the precious metals and power generation equipment sectors and out of the daily chemical and water service sectors. The market sentiment was bullish, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indexes [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond declined, and the central bank carried out reverse repurchase and MLF operations. The market interest rate fluctuated, and the trend of Treasury bonds was weak. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - **Precious metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional real - interest - rate - centered to the central - bank - gold - purchase - centered. The currency, financial, and risk - aversion attributes of gold are affected by various factors such as the US debt problem, interest rate policy, and geopolitical risks. The short - term interest - rate cut expectation supported the price of gold, and it is expected to oscillate strongly. The PCE data on Friday needs to be concerned [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price was stable, and the cost support for pulp prices weakened. The profitability of the paper industry was low, and the demand was in the off - season. The pulp market presented a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to consolidate [6]. - **Logs**: The daily shipment volume of logs at the port increased, and the supply pressure was not large. The inventory decreased, and the spot market price was stable. The cost support was enhanced. The fundamentals had few contradictions, and it is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Oils and fats**: Affected by strong export sales and the decision of the US EPA on biofuel exemptions, the demand for soybean oil was promising. The production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased, but the inventory was lower than expected, and the export demand was strong. The domestic import of soybeans remained high, and the inventory situation of different oils was different. The demand for double - festival stocking recovered, and it is expected to oscillate bullishly [6]. - **Meal products**: The USDA significantly reduced the planting area of soybeans, and the inventory of US soybeans decreased. The weather in the US soybean - producing area was favorable for growth, but the weather in the next month was still crucial. The anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed increased the cost, and the supply was worried. The domestic soybean arrival volume was high, and the soybean meal inventory was abundant. It is expected to oscillate [6]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs continued to decline. The supply increased, and the demand was restricted by high - temperature weather. The price of live pigs was expected to oscillate [7]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The impact of weather on the main rubber - producing areas weakened, but the geopolitical conflict still had a small impact. The raw material supply was tight, and the purchase price was high. The utilization rate of tire enterprises' production capacity showed different trends, and the inventory at Qingdao Port decreased. The supply - demand gap narrowed, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term [9]. - **PX**: Geopolitical instability made the oil price direction unclear. The PTA load weakened, and the polyester load rebounded. The short - term supply and demand of PX were slightly weaker but still tight, and the price was strong [9]. - **PTA**: The oil price fluctuated greatly, and the cost support was general. The supply decreased, and the demand improved. The price followed the cost fluctuation [9]. - **MEG**: The port inventory decreased, and the subsequent arrival volume was lower than expected. The terminal demand improved slightly, and the supply pressure increased. The medium - term supply and demand were expected to be in a wide - balance state. The low inventory supported the price [9]. - **PR**: The supply - demand expectation of polyester bottle chips was weak, but the oil price was strong, and the cost supported the price to oscillate [9]. - **PF**: The supply - demand side of polyester staple fiber lacked positive factors, but the overnight oil price increase and the strong raw material side were expected to continue, and the price was expected to sort out warmly [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. - The spot price has slightly decreased, and the main contract is weak in the short - term, while the far - month contracts are relatively strong [2][5]. - In the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the callback to stabilize [5]. 3. Summary by Content Market Data - **Shipping Indexes**: - On August 18, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1106.29 points, up 2.2% [3]. - On August 22, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 1035.79 points, down 1.59% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 1083.74 points, down 8.83%; NCFI (US West route) was 963.54 points, down 1.79% [3]. - On August 22, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI composite index was 1415.36 points, down 44.83 points from the previous period; SCFI European line price was 1668 USD/TEU, down 8.35%; SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 6.54% [3]. - On August 22, the China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1174.87 points, down 1.5% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1757.74 points, down 1.8%; CCFI (US West route) was 799.19 points, down 2.9% [3]. - **Contract Information**: On August 22, the main contract 2510 closed at 1309.0, down 1.82%, with a trading volume of 2.54 million lots and an open interest of 54,300 lots, a decrease of 38 lots from the previous day [5]. Economic Data - **Eurozone**: In July, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.5); the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 50.7, previous value 50.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 51 (expected 50.8, previous value 50.6); the SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [3]. - **China**: The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - **US**: In July, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous value 52.9); the services PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53, previous value 52.9); the Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [4]. Trade Situation - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, and the negotiation has no substantial progress. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the current spot price has slightly decreased [5]. Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: Risk - takers can try to go long lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [5]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the callback to stabilize [5]. Other Information - The circuit - breaker limits for contracts from 2508 to 2606 are adjusted to 18% [5]. - The margin requirements for contracts from 2508 to 2606 are adjusted to 28% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Volatile [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Bullish with Volatility [2] - Rebar and Coiled Steel: Volatile [2] - Glass: Bullish with Volatility [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatile [2] - SSE 50 Index: Bullish [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [3] - 2 - Year Treasury Bond: Volatile [3] - 5 - Year Treasury Bond: Volatile [3] - 10 - Year Treasury Bond: Downward [3] - Gold: Bullish with Volatility [3] - Silver: Bullish with Volatility [3] - Pulp: Consolidating [4] - Logs: Range - bound Volatility [4] - Soybean Oil: Bullish with Volatility [4] - Palm Oil: Bullish with Volatility [4] - Rapeseed Oil: Bullish with Volatility [4] - Soybean Meal: Volatile [4] - Rapeseed Meal: Volatile [4] - No. 2 Soybeans: Volatile [4] - No. 1 Soybeans: Bearish with Volatility [4] - Live Pigs: Bearish with Volatility [6] - Rubber: Volatile [8] - PX: Hold for Observation [8] - PTA: Volatile [8] - MEG: Hold for Observation [8] - PR: Hold for Observation [8] - PF: Bullish with Volatility [8] Core Views - The short - term manufacturing recovery has been interrupted, and the Politburo meeting fell short of expectations. However, Powell signaled a potential interest rate cut, providing support for commodities [2] - The expected blast furnace production restrictions in China have been temporarily disproven, so the impact on iron ore demand is minimal. The iron ore market is expected to move in a volatile manner [2] - Affected by a coal mine accident in Fujian and the initial success of anti - cut - throat competition, coking coal and coke prices rose sharply overnight. The overall recovery of coal mines in the production areas is still slow, and coal prices are supported in the short term [2] - The steel market's supply - demand contradiction has intensified. With the approaching traditional peak season, the spot demand for rebar remains weak, and the futures price is looking for support after a significant adjustment [2] - The glass market's supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly in the short term. The market is subject to many sentiment disturbances, and the real demand needs to be further observed [2] - The stock index market has seen capital inflows into semiconductor, computer hardware, and financial sectors, while capital has flowed out of aviation and gas sectors. The market's bullish sentiment is rising, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [2][3] - The bond market has shown weak trends due to market interest rate fluctuations. It is recommended to hold long positions in bonds with a light position [3] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The current logic driving the gold price increase remains valid, and gold is expected to be bullish with volatility [3] - The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to consolidate [4] - The log market has relatively small supply pressure and increasing demand for stocking up by processing plants. The price is expected to move within a range [4] - The oil market has positive demand prospects. The demand for biofuels is increasing, and the inventory of palm oil is lower than expected. The oil market is expected to be bullish with volatility [4] - The meal market is affected by factors such as the adjustment of soybean planting area, weather conditions, and import policies. The market is expected to be volatile [4] - The live pig market has an increasing supply and weak consumption demand due to high - temperature weather. The price is expected to be bearish with volatility [6] - The natural rubber market has a pattern of supply exceeding demand, but the gap is narrowing. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [8] - The PX market is affected by the uncertainty of ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the reduction of old production capacity in South Korea. The price is relatively strong [8] - The PTA market's supply - demand situation has improved, and the price mainly follows cost fluctuations [8] - The MEG market has increasing supply pressure, but low inventory supports the price [8] - The PR and PF markets have relatively stable short - term supply - demand structures, but the market's expectations for future demand are cautious [8] Summaries by Categories Metals - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments have increased significantly on a环比 basis, and the arrival volume has also rebounded. There is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure under high port clearance. The terminal demand is weak, but steel mills have little motivation to cut production actively. The price is expected to be volatile [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Affected by a coal mine accident and anti - cut - throat competition, the prices rose sharply overnight. The recovery of coal mines in production areas is slow, and downstream enterprises'开工 rates remain high. The price is expected to be bullish with volatility [2] - **Rebar and Coiled Steel**: The steel mill's production restrictions in Tangshan are less than expected. The overall demand is weak, and the supply - demand contradiction has intensified. The price is expected to be volatile [2] - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and its de - fiat currency attribute is becoming more prominent. The market's risk - aversion demand still exists, and the price is expected to be bullish with volatility [3] Financial Futures - **Stock Indices**: The market's bullish sentiment is rising due to policies such as large - scale equipment updates and promoting sports consumption. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [2][3] - **Bonds**: The bond market trends are weak due to market interest rate fluctuations. It is recommended to hold long positions in bonds with a light position [3] Industrial Products - **Pulp**: The cost support for pulp prices has weakened, and the demand is in the off - season. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to consolidate [4] - **Logs**: The supply pressure is relatively small, and the demand for stocking up by processing plants is increasing. The price is expected to move within a range [4] - **Rubber**: The supply - demand gap in the natural rubber market is narrowing. With the expected improvement in supply and relatively stable demand, the price is expected to be strong in the short term [8] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: The PX price is relatively strong due to supply - demand and production capacity factors. The PTA price follows cost fluctuations, the MEG price is supported by low inventory, and the PR and PF markets have stable short - term supply - demand but cautious demand expectations [8] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Meals**: The demand for oils is positive due to biofuel demand and lower - than - expected palm oil inventory. The meal market is affected by planting area, weather, and import policies, and is expected to be volatile [4] - **Live Pigs**: The supply of live pigs is increasing, and the consumption demand is weak due to high - temperature weather. The price is expected to be bearish with volatility [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports [1][2][3] Core Views - Due to the repeated Middle - East situation, current prices are falling, increasing short - selling sentiment. With large recent fluctuations, it's not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [1] - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the trading is difficult, so it's advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3] - In the short - term, the main contract is weak while far - month contracts are stronger. Risk - takers can try to go long lightly at around 1300 for the 2510 contract and around 1750 for the 2512 contract. Keep an eye on the subsequent market trend and don't hold losing positions, setting stop - losses [3] - For the arbitrage strategy, given the volatile international situation, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [3] - In the long - term, it's suggested to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] Summary by Related Information Shipping Industry - **Container Freight Indexes**: On August 15 - 18, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5%; the NCFI (European route) was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1106.29 points, up 2.2%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1042.91 points, down 5.9%. On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI European route price was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI (European route) was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI (US West route) was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1] Economic Data - **Eurozone**: In July, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8 (expected 49.7, previous 49.5), the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 50.7, previous 50.5), the composite PMI preliminary value was 51 (expected 50.8, previous 50.6), and the SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2] - **China**: The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [2] - **US**: In July, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous 52.9), the services PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53, previous 52.9), and the Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [2] Futures Market - **Contract Information**: On August 21, the main contract 2510 closed at 1325.0, down 2.49%, with a trading volume of 3.50 million lots and an open interest of 5.43 million lots, an increase of 2566 lots from the previous day. The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [3] Geopolitical and Trade - **Middle - East Situation**: The cease - fire in Gaza may fail again, the spot price is falling, and short - selling sentiment is rising. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [1][3] - **US - China Tariffs**: The extension of US - China tariffs continues, and the negotiation has no substantial progress. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the current spot price has slightly decreased [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - Due to the volatile Middle - East situation and fluctuating freight rates, it is recommended to participate in the market with light positions or stay on the sidelines. The current trading environment is complex, with geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties increasing the difficulty of trading [1][3]. - For shipping, the freight rate indices show mixed trends, with some routes down and others up, and the market is affected by the Middle - East situation and trade policies [1]. - In terms of economic data, the eurozone and the US have different performances in PMI indices, which may have an impact on the economic and trade environment [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shipping Freight Rate Indices - **NCFI and SCFIS on August 15 - 18**: The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1052.5 points on August 18, down 0.1% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5%. The NCFI (European route) was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%. The SCFIS (US West route) was 1106.29 points, up 2.2%, and the NCFI (US West route) was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1]. - **SCFI and CCFI on August 15**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%. The SCFI European route price was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%. The CCFI (European route) was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%. The SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%, and the CCFI (US West route) was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1]. Economic Data - **Eurozone in July**: The manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5. The services PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5. The composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, significantly higher than 0.2 in June and the market - expected 1.1, reaching the highest level since April 2022 [2]. - **China in July**: The manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [2]. - **US in July**: The S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 52.9. The services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, higher than the expected 53 and the previous value of 52.9. The Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, a new high since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [2]. Trading Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contract is relatively strong. Risk - takers can try to go long lightly at around 1300 for the 2510 contract and at around 1750 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In the context of international situation volatility, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines temporarily or try with a light position [3]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3]. Contract Information - On August 21, the main contract 2510 closed at 1325.0, down 2.49%, with a trading volume of 3.50 million lots and an open interest of 5.43 million lots, an increase of 2566 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3]. Geopolitical Situation - The cease - fire in Gaza may fail again. Israel is only interested in a comprehensive cease - fire agreement, while Hamas has agreed to the latest cease - fire proposal from Egypt and Qatar. As of now, Israel has not responded to Hamas' agreement [3][4]. - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Bearish [2] - Glass: Bearish [2] - Soda ash: Weak [2] - SSE 50 Index: Rebounding [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Downward [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3] - Silver: High-level oscillation [3] - Pulp: Consolidating [5] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Oscillating bullishly [5] - Palm oil: Oscillating bullishly [5] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating bullishly [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating [5] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [5] - Live pigs: Oscillating weakly [6] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Viewpoints - The short-term recovery of the manufacturing industry has been interrupted, and market expectations deviate, leading to market corrections. The fundamentals of various commodities have different characteristics, and their prices are expected to show different trends. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures and hold light long positions in Treasury bonds [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Global shipments and arrivals have increased, but there is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure under high port clearance. Terminal demand is weak, and steel mills have limited motivation to cut production actively. The fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The trading limit of the main coking coal futures contract has been adjusted, and demand is weak, resulting in a high-level adjustment. The recovery of coal mines is slow, and downstream enterprises'开工 is high. The short-term adjustment range is limited, and it is recommended to buy on dips after the sentiment in the black sector is released [2]. - **Rebar and hot-rolled coils**: The production cut policy in Tangshan is clear, but the production cut is less than expected. Demand is weak, and the overall supply-demand contradiction in the steel market intensifies. The spot demand for rebar is still weak, and the futures price will adjust downward to find support [2]. - **Glass**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the replenishment demand has weakened. The supply-demand pattern has not improved significantly, and the inventory is accumulating. The long-term demand is difficult to recover significantly due to the adjustment of the real estate industry [2]. - **Soda ash**: The spot is weak in the short term, and the futures price has broken through the support level. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the actual demand can improve [2]. Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The performance of different stock indexes varies, and there is capital inflow and outflow in different sectors. The market sentiment is bullish, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2][3]. - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates fluctuate, and the trend of Treasury bonds is weak. It is recommended to hold light long positions [3]. - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and various factors such as currency, finance, and risk aversion affect the price. The short-term market is waiting for the development of the situation, and the price is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [3]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is weak, the cost support is weakened, and the demand is in the off-season. The supply-demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to consolidate [5]. - **Logs**: The port inventory is decreasing, the cost support is strengthening, and the supply pressure is not significant. The demand for processing plants is expected to increase, and the price is expected to range-bound oscillate [5]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Oilseeds and oils**: The prices of soybean oil and palm oil are affected by factors such as export sales and production, and they are expected to oscillate bullishly. The supply and demand of soybean meal are balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate [5]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the supply is increasing. The demand is restricted by high temperatures, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply-demand gap in the natural rubber market has narrowed, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [9]. - **PTA and related products**: The prices of PTA and related products are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply and demand, and costs, and their trends vary [9].

Price Trends - Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFIS) for Europe route is at 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period[3] - Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for Europe route is at 1188.7 points, down 5.5% from the previous period[3] - SCFIS for the US West route is at 1106.29 points, up 2.2% from the previous period[3] Market Conditions - Current spot prices are experiencing slight declines amid geopolitical tensions and tariff negotiations, suggesting a cautious market outlook[5] - The main contract closed at 1355.0, with a decline of 1.33% and a trading volume of 27,500 contracts[5] Economic Indicators - Eurozone July Manufacturing PMI is at 49.8, slightly above the expected 49.7, indicating a marginal improvement in manufacturing conditions[3] - US July Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is at 49.5, below the expected 52.7, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[4] Strategic Recommendations - Short-term strategy suggests maintaining a weak position in main contracts while considering light positions around 1300 for contract 2510[6] - Long-term strategy advises waiting for stabilization before making further directional judgments on contracts[6]