2025年5月12日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 中美经贸正式谈判取得实质性进展,符合日报预期,今日若冲高建议落袋止盈 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 欧元区4月制造业PMM初值为48.7，预期47.5; 4月服务业PMM加值为49.7，预期50.5, 欧元区4月综合PMW加值为50.1，预期值为50.3，前值为50.9 欧元区4月Sentix投资者信心指数-19.5，预期-10,前值-2.9。 5.6%。其中，出口2.27万亿元，增长9.3%;进口1.57万亿元,增长0.8%。 3月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.5%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，我国制造业景气水平继续回升。3月财新中国制造业采购经理人指数（PMI) 录得51.2，高于上月0.4个百分点，为四个月来新高。 美国4月标普全球制造业PMI初值50.7，预期49.1，3月终值50.2; 服务业PMI初值51.4，预期52.8，3月终值54.4; 综合PMI初值51.2，预期52.2，3月 终值53.5。 | 对于今年核心逻辑的预判在于国际关税政策走向，4月美国将对加拿 | | | --- | --- | | 大、墨西哥、欧洲等国家的关税政策 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly, with an increase in short - term positions [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating at a low level [2] - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50: Rebounding [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [4] - CSI 500: Moving upward [4] - CSI 1000: Moving upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Moving upward [4] - Gold: Oscillating at a high level [4] - Silver: Oscillating at a high level [4] - Pulp: Oscillating weakly [6] - Logs: Oscillating weakly [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating [6] - Rubber: Oscillating [8] - PX: Oscillating [8] - PTA: Oscillating [8] - MEG: On the sidelines [8] - PR: On the sidelines [8] - PF: On the sidelines [8] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is currently strong in the short - term but may face downward pressure in the medium - to - long - term due to factors such as steel mill production cuts and Sino - US trade frictions [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is weak, with high supply pressure and an oversupply situation in coke [2]. - The steel market, including rolled steel and rebar, is expected to oscillate at a low level due to concerns about supply, demand, and policy [2]. - The glass market lacks upward momentum as the real - estate industry is in an adjustment period and demand is weak [2]. - The stock index market shows different trends, and with the improvement of the external market and the implementation of monetary policies, long - positions in stock indices are recommended [4]. - The bond market is expected to have a reasonable liquidity level, and long - positions in bonds are recommended [4]. - The precious metals market, including gold and silver, is expected to oscillate at a high level, affected by factors such as interest rate policies, trade policies, and inflation [4]. - The pulp and log markets are expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as cost reduction and weak demand [6]. - The oil and fat market is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to sufficient supply and weak consumption [6]. - The soybean meal and related products market is expected to oscillate with a downward bias due to increased supply and reduced demand [6]. - The rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance and weak driving forces [8]. - The chemical products market, including PX, PTA, and others, shows different trends mainly affected by raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and macro - factors [8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals Industry - **Iron ore**: Future iron ore shipments may seasonally increase. Steel mills' profitability and iron - water production are high, but steel production may peak in May. Steel exports face tariff risks, and domestic demand is entering the off - season. In the short - term, the market is strong, while in the medium - to - long - term, short - positions in the 09 contract are recommended [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Mongolian coal supply is limited, but the overall supply pressure is high. Coke production is increasing, and inventory is rising. The market is weak and follows the trend of finished steel products [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Steel mills' profits are good, but there are concerns about external demand and domestic demand. The market inventory is low, but production is high, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [2]. - **Glass**: Some production lines have resumed production, and coal prices have fallen, improving profits. However, demand is weak, and the market lacks upward momentum [2]. Financial Market - **Stock indices**: Different stock indices show different trends. The Sino - US economic and trade talks have achieved progress, and with the implementation of monetary policies, long - positions in stock indices are recommended [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: Interest rates are oscillating, and the market will maintain a reasonable liquidity level. Long - positions in bonds are recommended [4]. - **Precious metals**: Gold and silver are expected to oscillate at a high level, affected by factors such as interest rate policies, trade policies, and inflation [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot price is stable, but the cost price has decreased, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Logs**: Demand has declined after a peak, and supply pressure has decreased. The cost has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Oils**: Palm oil production is increasing seasonally, and soybean supply is abundant. Consumption is in the off - season, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. - **Meals**: Soybean supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing after the holiday. The market is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [6]. Soft Commodities and Chemicals - **Rubber**: Supply may be affected by the postponed opening of the Thai rubber season, but domestic supply is increasing. Demand is uncertain, and inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **PX**: It follows the trend of oil prices, which are oscillating at a low level due to demand and geopolitical pressures [8]. - **PTA**: Supply and demand are in a de - stocking state, mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [8]. - **MEG**: Although short - term supply and demand are not bad, the macro - sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the market is on the sidelines [8]. - **PR and PF**: The market shows different trends due to factors such as raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and industry processing fees [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The core logic for this year lies in the direction of international tariff policies. In April, the US may change its tariff policies towards Canada, Mexico, Europe and other countries. With the approaching of the long - term contract pricing window for US routes, retaliatory tariffs are added as a negotiation tool, which adds a major disturbing factor to the future of the shipping industry. Ship companies intend to support prices, but price wars among alliances are inevitable. Attention should be paid to the price war between MSK and MSC in the second quarter and the feedback of terminal demand under radical tariff policies [3] - The positive sentiment in the macro - market has slowed down. With the spot freight rate remaining low, the market is in a state of long - short game and overall oscillating at a low level. Future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index - On May 5, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1379.07 points, down 3.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1320.69 points, up 7.3% from the previous period. On April 30, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1340.93 points, down 6.91 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1200 USD/TEU, down 4.76% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2272 USD/FEU, up 6.12% from the previous period [2] - On May 2, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 930.24 points, up 2.40% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 764 points, down 4.04% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1477.93 points, up 19.67% from the previous period. On April 30, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1121.08 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1497.15 points, down 0.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 837.43 points, up 1.7% from the previous period [2] 3.2 PMI and Investor Confidence Index - In March, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity level. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in March was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [3] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7 (expected 47.5); the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index in April was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [2] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in April was 50.7 (expected 49.1, final value in March 50.2); the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, final value in March 54.4); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, final value in March 53.5) [3] 3.3 Market and Policy Events - On May 8, the main contract 2506 closed at 1283.0, down 3.64%, with a trading volume of 45,500 lots and an open interest of 38,100 lots, a decrease of 1368 lots from the previous day [3] - On May 8, Israeli Defense Minister Katz warned the Yemeni Houthi rebels that if they continued to fire at Israel, "they would suffer a heavy blow from Israel." He also warned Iran [5] - On May 8, the Ministry of Commerce responded to the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks. The Chinese side firmly opposes the US's abuse of tariffs. The US should address the negative impacts of unilateral tariff measures and show sincerity in negotiations [6] 3.4 Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies in the short term, the operation is difficult. If participating in each contract, it is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term investments [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the background of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse arbitrage structure, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large [4] - Long - term strategy: Risk - preferring investors can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, set stop - losses, and take profits when the price rises [4] - The daily price limit for contracts 2504 - 2602 is 16%, the company's margin for these contracts is 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2504 - 2602 is 100 lots [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Low-level oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Weakly oscillating [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Rebound [6] - Palm oil: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating bearishly [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating bearishly [6] - No. 2 soybeans: Oscillating bearishly [6] - No. 1 soybeans: Oscillation [6] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Oscillation [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] - Plastics: Oscillation [9] - PP: Oscillation [11] - PVC: Oscillating weakly [11] Core Views - The iron ore market is currently strong in the short term but bearish in the medium to long term due to potential steel mill production cuts and trade frictions [2] - The coal and coke market is weak, with high supply pressure and an unchanged pattern of oversupply in coke [2] - The rebar market is expected to oscillate at a low level due to high production, potential export impacts, and seasonal demand decline [2] - The glass market lacks upward momentum as the real estate industry remains in an adjustment period [2] - The stock index market is expected to rebound as the external market stabilizes and risk aversion eases [4] - The Treasury bond market is expected to rise as the central bank maintains reasonable liquidity [4] - The precious metal market is expected to oscillate at a high level, with gold prices influenced by interest rate and tariff policies [4] - The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly due to weak demand and reduced cost support [6] - The log market is expected to stabilize at a low level and oscillate, with potential marginal improvement in demand [6] - The oil and fat market is expected to rebound in the short term and oscillate bearishly in the medium term due to ample supply and seasonal demand decline [6] - The meal market is expected to oscillate bearishly as soybean supply increases and demand weakens after the holiday [6] - The rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly due to increased supply and uncertain demand [9] - The chemical product market shows various trends, with prices mainly influenced by supply and demand, raw material prices, and macro factors [9][11] Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron ore**: After the press conference, the iron ore futures price rose and then fell. Global iron ore shipments may increase seasonally in the coming weeks. Steel mill profitability has improved, and hot metal production remains high, but steel production may peak in May. Steel exports face tariff risks, and domestic demand is entering a seasonal off - season, which may lead to steel mill production cuts and be bearish for iron ore in the medium to long term [2] - **Coal and coke**: Mongolian coal supply growth is limited, but the overall supply pressure remains high. Steel spot trading is poor due to tariff policies, and market confidence is low. Coke supply is in an oversupply situation, and coal and coke prices mainly follow the trend of finished steel products [2] - **Rebar**: After the press conference, the rebar futures price rose and then fell. Steel mill profits are good, and supply pressure is increasing. There are doubts about external demand and domestic demand in May. The market inventory is low, which supports the price, but overall, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [2] - **Glass**: Some production lines have resumed operation, and daily melting volume has slightly fluctuated. Coal prices have fallen, improving profits. Factory inventories have slightly decreased, but there are regional differences. Overall, demand is weak, and the market lacks upward momentum [2] Financial and Precious Metal Industry - **Stock index**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices. Aerospace and military industry, and communication equipment sectors had capital inflows. With the stabilization of the external market and the easing of risk aversion, stock index futures are recommended to be held long [4] - **Treasury bond**: Yields of Treasury bonds have declined, and the central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations to inject liquidity. The market is expected to maintain reasonable liquidity, and Treasury bond futures are recommended to be held long [4] - **Precious metals**: Gold prices are influenced by multiple factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and trade policies. The current upward - driving logic has not completely reversed, and gold is expected to oscillate at a high level [4] Light Industry and Oil and Fat Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is strong, but the decline in external market prices weakens cost support. Paper mills' profitability is low, and demand is poor, so the pulp price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **Logs**: Log demand has declined after a peak, but supply pressure has decreased due to reduced arrivals. Spot prices are stable, and the price is expected to stabilize at a low level and oscillate [6] - **Oil and fat**: Palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia is in a seasonal growth period, and soybean production in South America is abundant. Supply is ample, while demand is in a seasonal off - season. The market is expected to rebound in the short term and oscillate bearishly in the medium term [6] - **Meal**: U.S. soybean planting conditions may improve, and South American soybeans are in a bumper harvest. Domestic soybean arrivals are increasing, and meal supply is expected to increase while demand weakens after the holiday, so the meal price is expected to oscillate bearishly [6] Soft Commodity and Chemical Industry - **Rubber**: Supply is expected to increase as the main producing areas start the tapping season. Demand is uncertain, and inventory is still relatively high. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [9] - **PX**: Affected by demand and geopolitical factors, oil prices are oscillating at a low level. PX prices are expected to follow oil price fluctuations [9] - **PTA**: Raw material prices are volatile, and PTA supply and demand are in a de - stocking state, mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [9] - **MEG**: Domestic production capacity utilization has increased, and port inventories have slightly decreased. However, due to macro - sentiment fluctuations, the price fluctuates widely [9] - **Plastics and related products**: Different plastic products have different supply - demand situations and cost factors. Overall, prices are affected by supply, demand, raw material prices, and macro - sentiment [9][11]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The core logic for this year lies in the direction of international tariff policies. In April, the US had fluctuations in tariff policies towards Canada, Mexico, Europe and other countries. As the pricing window for long - term contracts on US routes approaches, retaliatory tariffs have become a negotiation tool, adding significant uncertainties to the future of the shipping industry. Although shipping companies intend to support prices, price wars among alliances are inevitable. Two key aspects need attention: the price war between MSK and MSC in the second quarter and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [4]. - The market is affected by factors such as tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates. The main contract 2506 closed at 1288.2 on May 7, with a decline of 1.83%, a trading volume of 53,600 lots, and an open interest of 39,500 lots, an increase of 3,642 lots from the previous day [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shipping Freight Index - On May 5, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1,379.07 points, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1,320.69 points, a 7.3% increase from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1,340.93 points, a decrease of 6.91 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1,200 USD/TEU, a 4.76% decrease from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US - West route was 2,272 USD/FEU, a 6.12% increase from the previous period [2]. - On May 2, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 930.24 points, a 2.40% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 764 points, a 4.04% decrease from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1,477.93 points, a 19.67% increase from the previous period. On April 30, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1,121.08 points, a 0.1% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1,497.15 points, a 0.2% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 837.43 points, a 1.7% increase from the previous period [2]. PMI Data - In March, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity. The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in March was 51.2, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month, reaching a four - month high [3]. - In April, the preliminary value of the Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (expected 47.5); the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5); the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index in April was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in April was 50.7 (expected 49.1, final value in March 50.2); the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, final value in March 54.4); the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, final value in March 53.5) [3]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies in the short term, the operation is difficult. It is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term contracts if participating [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse - spread structure. The window period is short and the fluctuations are large [4]. - Long - term strategy: Risk - preferring investors can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1,600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1,200 points, set stop - losses, and take profits when the price rises [4]. Contract Information - On May 7, the main contract 2506 closed at 1288.2, with a decline of 1.83%, a trading volume of 53,600 lots, and an open interest of 39,500 lots, an increase of 3,642 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2504 - 2602 has been adjusted to 19%. The company's margin for contracts 2504 - 2602 has been adjusted to 29%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2504 - 2602 is 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical and Diplomatic Events - After a large - scale air strike by Israel, the Houthi armed forces in Yemen stated that they would not give up their support for the Gaza Strip at any cost and that the counter - attack would be devastating [4]. - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will visit Switzerland from May 9 - 12 and hold talks with the US side during the visit. China decided to engage with the US after careful evaluation, considering global expectations, Chinese interests, and the appeals of the US industry and consumers [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short-term neutral, medium to long-term bearish, suggesting shorting the 09 contract on rallies [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bearish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Neutral [2] - Glass: Bearish with a neutral bias [2] - CSI 300 Index: Neutral [4] - SSE 50 Index: Bullish [4] - CSI 500 Index: Bullish [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Bullish [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Neutral [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Neutral [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Bullish [4] - Gold: Bullish with a neutral bias [4] - Silver: Bullish with a neutral bias [4] - Pulp: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Logs: Neutral [5] - Soybean oil: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Palm oil: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Rapeseed oil: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Soybean meal: Bearish with a neutral bias [7] - Rapeseed meal: Bearish with a neutral bias [7] - No. 2 soybeans: Bearish with a neutral bias [7] - No. 1 soybeans: Neutral [7] - Rubber: Neutral [7] - PX: Neutral [7] - PTA: Suggest shorting processing spreads [7] - MEG: Hold and observe [7] - PR: Hold and observe [8] - PF: Hold and observe [8] - Plastics: Bearish with a neutral bias [8] - PP: Bearish with a neutral bias [8] - PVC: Bearish with a neutral bias [8] Core Viewpoints - The global iron ore shipment may increase seasonally in the coming weeks, while steel mills' production cuts will have a negative impact on the raw material end. The 09 iron ore contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [2] - The supply pressure of coking coal remains high, and the oversupply pattern of coke remains unchanged. Coal and coke generally follow the trend of finished products [2] - The supply pressure of rebar continues to rise, and the market has doubts about external demand and domestic demand. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2] - The glass demand is difficult to rebound significantly, and the fundamentals lack the impetus to push up prices [2] - The central bank will introduce a package of monetary policy measures, and the CSRC will promote long-term funds to enter the market, which is beneficial to the stock market [4] - The logic of the current round of gold price increase has not completely reversed, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] - The supply of pulp is sufficient, and the demand side performs poorly, so the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - The supply pressure of logs decreases, and the demand is expected to improve marginally, with the price expected to stabilize and fluctuate at a low level [5] - The supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the consumption is in the off-season, so the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - The supply of soybean meal will gradually increase, and the market will shift from "tight reality" to "loose expectation", with the price expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - The supply of No. 2 soybeans will gradually become loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - The supply of rubber is expected to increase, and the demand is uncertain. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - PX price is expected to fluctuate with oil prices [7] - PTA supply and demand will destock, mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [7] - MEG supply and demand are not bad in the short term, but the macro sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the price fluctuates widely [7] - The polyester bottle chip market may adjust weakly and steadily [8] - The polyester staple fiber market will continue to be in a game state, and the price may fluctuate within a narrow range [8] - The supply and demand of plastics are bearish, and the 05 contract will run weakly [8] - The supply pressure of PP decreases, and the price is expected to run weakly [8] - The PVC supply and demand are bearish, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8] Summary by Category Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: After the press conference, the iron ore futures price rose rapidly and then fell back. The global shipment may increase seasonally, and the steel mills' production cuts will have a negative impact on the raw material end. The short-term reality is strong, and the price may fluctuate and consolidate at the current position. In the medium and long term, the 09 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [2] - Coking coal and coke: The supply pressure of coking coal remains high, and the oversupply pattern of coke remains unchanged. The second round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and the overall inventory has increased. Coal and coke generally follow the trend of finished products [2] - Rebar: After the press conference, the rebar futures price rose rapidly and then fell back. The supply pressure continues to rise, and the market has doubts about external demand and domestic demand. The inventory is at a low level, which supports the price. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2] - Glass: Some production lines have resumed production, and the daily melting volume has fluctuated slightly. The profit has improved, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The demand is difficult to rebound significantly, and the fundamentals lack the impetus to push up prices [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The central bank will introduce a package of monetary policy measures, and the CSRC will promote long-term funds to enter the market, which is beneficial to the stock market. The Fed maintains the interest rate unchanged, and the external market stabilizes. The stock index bulls can hold [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations, and the market liquidity is at a reasonable level. The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond rises, and the bulls can hold [4] Precious Metals - Gold: The logic of the current round of gold price increase has not completely reversed, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy may be short-term disturbing factors, and the tariff policy evolution dominates the market risk aversion sentiment [4] - Silver: The inflation data slows down, and the Fed does not cut interest rates as expected. The short-term price is affected by the Fed's policy and trade negotiations, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The spot market price is strong, but the cost price decline weakens the support for the pulp price. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and the demand side performs poorly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - Logs: The port shipment volume increases, and the supply pressure decreases. The spot market price is weak, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate at a low level [5] Oils and Fats and Meals - Oils and fats: The supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the consumption is in the off-season. The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia increases seasonally, and the demand for biodiesel weakens. The supply of domestic soybeans increases, and the inventory is expected to rise. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - Meals: The supply of soybean meal will gradually increase, and the market will shift from "tight reality" to "loose expectation". The supply of No. 2 soybeans will gradually become loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is uncertain. The inventory accumulation speed slows down, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the impact of the macro and policy aspects [7] Chemicals - PX: The oil price fluctuates at a low level, and the PX price is expected to fluctuate with the oil price [7] - PTA: The raw material price fluctuates repeatedly, and the processing spread is at a certain level. The supply and demand will destock, mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [7] - MEG: The supply and demand are not bad in the short term, but the macro sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the price fluctuates widely [7] - PR: The raw material support is weak, but there is certain support from the peak consumption season. The market may adjust weakly and steadily [8] - PF: The demand expectation is weak, and the oil price falls. The PTA supply shrinks, and the market will continue to be in a game state. The price may fluctuate within a narrow range [8] - Plastics: The supply and demand are bearish, and the 05 contract will run weakly. The cost end is affected by factors such as oil prices, and the supply side has new device production expectations [8] - PP: The supply pressure decreases, and the price is expected to run weakly. The cost end is affected by multiple factors, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement [8] - PVC: The supply and demand are bearish, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The cost end is stable, the inventory is destocked, and the spot transaction is average [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The core logic this year depends on international tariff policy trends. In April, the US may change tariff policies for countries like Canada, Mexico, and Europe. Near the pricing window for long - term contracts on US routes, retaliatory tariffs are added to negotiation means, increasing uncertainty in shipping. Attention should be paid to the price war between MSK and MSC in Q2 and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [3] - Although the SCFIS is continuously declining, the spot freight rate is relatively stable, and investors are观望. The overall market fluctuates widely under the long - short game. Future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Freight Rate Index - On April 25, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI, composite index) was 908.48 points, down 1.39% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS, European route) was 1379.07 points, down 3.5% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 796.14 points, down 5.19% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1320.69 points, up 7.3% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 1235.01 points, up 1.53% from the previous period [1] - On April 30, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1340.93 points, down 6.91 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI, composite index) was 1121.08 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1200 USD/TEU, down 4.76% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1497.15 points, down 0.2% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2272 USD/FEU, up 6.12% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 837.43 points, up 1.7% from the previous period [1] Economic Data - In the eurozone, the April manufacturing PMI flash was 48.7 (expected 47.5), the April services PMI flash was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and the April composite PMI flash was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.9). The April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous - 2.9) [1] - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The Caixin China manufacturing PMI in March was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [1] - In April, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final 50.2), the services PMI flash was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final 54.4), and the composite PMI flash was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final 53.5) [2] Market Conditions and Trading Strategies - On May 6, the main contract 2506 closed at 1299.5, up 0.10%, with a trading volume of 33,900 lots and an open interest of 35,900 lots, an increase of 2618 lots from the previous day [3] - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate in the short term. It is recommended to focus on medium - to - long - term contracts if participating [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the background of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse arbitrage structure, with a short window period and large fluctuations [3] - Long - term strategy: Risk - preferring investors can try to go long with a light position when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [3] - Circuit breakers: For contracts from 2504 to 2602, the circuit breaker is adjusted to 19% [3] - Margin: For contracts from 2504 to 2602, the margin is adjusted to 29% [3] - Daily opening limit: For all contracts from 2504 to 2602, the daily opening limit is 100 lots [3]

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 7 日星期三 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-7） | | | | 周，全球铁矿发运或季节性回升，钢厂高炉复产带动铁水产量维持高位， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 铁矿：今日一揽子金融政策支持稳市场预期，黑色夜盘受到支撑。未来几 | | | | | 全国日均铁水产量 245.42 万吨，环比增 1.07 万吨。按目前铁水走势看，5 | | | 铁矿石 | 逢高试空 | 月份将是钢材产量的峰值，同时钢材出口受关税扰动风险上升，国内需求 | | | | | 步入季节性淡季，钢厂销售压力加剧或导致利润收缩，自发性减产还是被 | | | | | 动减产，其减产的总量都对原料端形成利空。短期铁矿基本面矛盾不突出， | | | | | 盘面反弹态势，中长期来看，考虑到钢厂限产，铁水或见顶回落以及中美 | | | | | 贸易摩擦延续，铁矿 09 合约逢高试空，关注政策落地情况。 | | | | | 煤焦：进口方面，蒙古口岸通关量维持低位，叠加竞拍市场持续低迷，蒙 | | | 煤焦 ...

美国4月标普全球制造业PM1初值50.7，预期49.1，3月终值50.2; 服务业PM1初值51.4，预期52.8，3月终值54.4; 综合PM1初值51.2，预期 52.2, 3月终值53.5。 | 对于今年核心逻辑的预判在于国际关税政策走向，4月美国将对 | | | --- | --- | | 加拿大、墨西哥、欧洲等国家的关税政策再出反复,临近美线长 | | | 协定价窗口,报复性关税被加入谈判手段,对未来海运走向增加 | 短期策略:短期外盘政策动荡,操作难度较大,各合约若要参与建 | | 一个较大的扰动因素,在运价上各船司有意挺价,但绕不开联盟 | 议以中长线为主。 | | 间的价格战。综上述,我们认为一需要关注MSK与MSC在第二 | 套利策略:关税发酵背景下,可关注反套结构,窗口期较短,波动 | | 炭 季度开展的价格战问题,二是激进的关税政策下终端需求的反馈 | 较大。 | | | 长期策略:建议风险偏好者可尝试2508合约跌至1600点以下轻仓 | | | 试多，2510合约1200点以下轻仓试多，设置好止损。 | | 4月30日主力合约2506收盘1324.3, 涨幅为3.42%, 成交量 | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The core logic for this year lies in the direction of international tariff policies. In April, the US may introduce tariff policy changes for countries such as Canada, Mexico, and Europe, adding uncertainty to future shipping trends. Attention should be paid to the price war between MSK and MSC in Q2 and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [3]. - The spot freight rate continues to decline, with short - term external policies being unstable and difficult to operate. It is recommended to focus on medium - to long - term operations for each contract. In the context of tariff issues, the reverse arbitrage structure can be considered, but the window period is short and the volatility is high. Risk - preferring investors can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Freight Index - On April 28, the Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 908.48 points, down 1.39% from the previous period; the Shanghai Containerized Freight Settlement Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1429.39 points, down 5.2%; the NCFI (European route) was 796.14 points, down 5.19%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1368.41 points, down 10.1%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1235.01 points, up 1.53% [1]. - On April 25, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1347.84 points, down 22.74 points from the previous period; the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1122.40 points, up 1.0%; the SCFI European route price was 1260 USD/TEU, down 4.26%; the CCFI (European route) was 1499.50 points, up 0.9%; the SCFI US West route was 2141 USD/FEU, up 1.81%; the CCFI (US West route) was 823.14 points, up 1.4% [1]. 3.2 Economic Data - Eurozone's April manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (expected 47.5), services PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and composite PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [1]. - China's February manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the March Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [1]. - The US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final value 50.2), services PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final value 54.4), and composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final value 53.5) [2]. 3.3 Market Conditions - On April 29, the main contract 2506 closed at 1275.6, down 7.83%, with a trading volume of 54,900 lots and an open interest of 37,600 lots, a decrease of 2001 lots from the previous day [3]. - The spot freight rate maintains a downward trend. Under the game between long and short positions, short - selling sentiment slightly prevails, and the market fluctuates at a low level [3]. 3.4 Policy and Geopolitical Events - In April, the US may introduce tariff policy changes for countries such as Canada, Mexico, and Europe, and retaliatory tariffs are added to the negotiation means, increasing uncertainty to future shipping trends [3]. - On April 28, the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced sanctions on three ships and their owners supporting the Houthi armed forces in Yemen [5]. 3.5 Strategy Suggestions - Short - term strategy: Due to the unstable external policies in the short term, it is difficult to operate. It is recommended to focus on medium - to long - term operations for each contract [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of tariff issues, the reverse arbitrage structure can be considered, but the window period is short and the volatility is high [4]. - Long - term strategy: Risk - preferring investors can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [4]. 3.6 Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts from 2504 to 2602 is adjusted to 19% [4]. - The margin for contracts from 2504 to 2602 is adjusted to 29% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 100 lots [4]. 3.7 Marine Economy - In Q1, the initial total marine production value was 2.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate [5].