Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, so it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [5] - The spot freight rate maintains a downward trend, the futures market is weakly volatile with large recent fluctuations, and it is not recommended to increase positions. Set stop - losses [2] - Pay attention to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [5] 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On August 18, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1106.29 points, up 2.2% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1188.7 points, down 5.5% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1193.34 points, down 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1790.47 points, down 0.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 981.1 points, down 5.9% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - In July, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5; the service PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6 [3] - The eurozone's SENTIX investor confidence index in July reached 4.5, significantly higher than 0.2 in June and the market - expected 1.1, hitting the highest level since April 2022 [3] - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined [4] - The initial value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous value 52.9); the initial value of the service PMI was 55.2 (expected 53, previous value 52.9); the initial value of the Markit composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [4] Market Situation - As of August 20, the Israeli side has not responded to the new cease - fire agreement proposed by Hamas, and the Israeli military has approved an offensive plan for Gaza City [7] - Sino - US tariffs continue to be extended, and there is no substantial progress in the negotiations. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [5] - On August 20, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1355.0, a decline of 1.33%, with a trading volume of 27,500 lots and an open interest of 51,700 lots, a decrease of 1072 lots from the previous day [5] Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contract is strong. Risk - takers can try to go long lightly near 1300 for the 2510 contract and near 1750 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [6] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6] Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [6] - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Oscillating weakly [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rebar and Coil: Bearish [2] - Glass: Bearish [2] - Soda Ash: Weak [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - Gold: High - level oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Range - bound oscillation [6] - Soybean Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Palm Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No.2: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No.1: Oscillating weakly [6] - Live Pigs: Oscillating weakly [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: Buy on dips [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Views - The short - term recovery of the manufacturing industry has been interrupted, and the market has seen corrections due to expected deviations. Different industries face various supply - demand situations and policy impacts, leading to diverse price trends [2] - Market sentiment in the financial sector is warming up, with increased liquidity. Interest rate policies and geopolitical factors are influencing market trends [4] - In the agricultural and soft commodity sectors, factors such as production, consumption, and policies are affecting the supply - demand balance and price movements of different products [6][7][9] Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Global shipments have increased significantly, port inventories have slightly risen, and terminal demand is weak. Although there is a production - cut expectation in the north in late August, the limit - production intensity is not as expected. The short - term fundamental contradictions are limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the main coking coal futures contract. The recovery of coal mines is slow, and downstream enterprises'开工 is high. The short - term adjustment range is limited, and it is recommended to buy on dips after the bearish sentiment in the black sector is released [2] - **Rebar and Coil**: The production - limit policy in Tangshan is clear, but the production - cut is not as expected. Building material demand has declined, external demand has been overdrawn in advance, and real - estate investment continues to fall. The overall steel market inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term futures price is expected to adjust downward to find support [2] - **Glass**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the mid - and downstream are in the stage of digesting previous inventories. Supply and demand have not improved significantly in the short term. The long - term demand is difficult to pick up due to the adjustment of the real - estate industry [2] - **Soda Ash**: The short - term spot is weak, and the futures price has broken through the support level. Attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2] Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indexes. There is capital inflow in some sectors and outflow in others. The new LPR remains unchanged, and policies are being implemented to support the economy. Market sentiment is warming up, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indexes [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has increased, and the central bank has carried out reverse - repurchase operations. The market interest rate fluctuates, and the Treasury bond trend is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and factors such as the US debt problem, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks are affecting the price. The short - term price is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [4] Soft Commodities and Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is stable, and the cost support for the pulp price has weakened. The paper - making industry's profitability is low, and demand is in the off - season. The pulp price is expected to consolidate [6] - **Logs**: The daily shipment volume at the port has decreased slightly, and the supply pressure is not large. The inventory is declining, and the cost support has increased. The short - term price is expected to range - bound oscillate [6] - **Rubber**: The impact of weather factors on the main producing areas has weakened, but geopolitical conflicts still have a small impact. The demand for tires is relatively stable, and the inventory at Qingdao Port is decreasing. The short - term price is expected to be strong [9] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: The production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are increasing, but the inventory is lower than expected. The export demand is strong. Domestic soybean imports are high, and the inventory of different oils is changing. The short - term price is expected to oscillate and correct [6] - **Meal Products**: The USDA has lowered the planting area of soybeans, and the production and inventory are expected to decline. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed have increased the cost. The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate [6] - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the supply is increasing. The demand is restricted by high temperatures. The price is expected to oscillate in the future [7] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The US commercial crude oil inventory has decreased significantly, and the price is oscillating and rising. The short - term supply is still tight, and the price follows the oil price [9] - **PTA**: The cost - side support is general, the supply is gradually recovering, and the demand from downstream polyester factories is increasing. The price follows the cost [9] - **MEG**: The port inventory has decreased slightly, and the supply pressure is increasing. The short - term cost fluctuates greatly, and the low inventory supports the price. It is recommended to buy on dips [9] - **PR**: The cost is supported by the overnight rise in crude oil, but the demand is only for rigid low - price replenishment, and the trading is dull [9] - **PF**: Downstream orders have improved slightly, and the factory inventory pressure is not large. Multiple factors are boosting the market, and it is expected to strengthen [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see. The short - term strategy suggests that risk - takers can try to go long lightly near 1300 for the 2510 contract and near 1750 for the 2512 contract. The long - term strategy is to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for a pullback to determine the subsequent direction. The arbitrage strategy advises waiting and seeing or light - position attempts due to large fluctuations [5][6] - The cease - fire news has limited impact on the market, and the market is volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2][5] Summary According to Directory Freight Index - On August 18, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1106.29 points, up 2.2% from the previous period. On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 1188.7 points, down 5.5% from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1193.34 points, down 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1790.47 points, down 0.5% from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 981.1 points, down 5.9% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - In the eurozone, the July manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5. The July services PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5. The July composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, significantly higher than 0.2 in June and the market - expected 1.1, reaching the highest level since April 2022 [3] - In the US, the July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, with an expected 52.7 and a previous value of 52.9; the July S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, with an expected 53 and a previous value of 52.9. The July Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [4] - The July manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in China was 49.3%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined [4] Market Conditions - On August 19, the main contract 2510 closed at 1370.3, a decline of 0.80%, with a trading volume of 27,300 lots and an open interest of 52,800 lots, a decrease of 383 lots from the previous day [5] Geopolitical Situation - On August 18, Hamas announced its agreement to the latest cease - fire proposal from Egypt and Qatar, but Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu seemed uninterested, and Israel was advancing its so - called "takeover" of Gaza City [7] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, try to go long lightly near 1300 for the 2510 contract and near 1750 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend and set stop - losses [6] - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [6] - Long - term strategy: Take profits when the contracts rise and wait for a pullback to determine the subsequent direction [6] Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [6] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The ceasefire news has limited impact on the market, with recent large fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions further, and stop - loss orders should be set [2] - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5] - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [5] Summary by Content Freight Index - On August 18, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1106.29 points, up 2.2% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1188.7 points, down 5.5% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1193.34 points, down 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1790.47 points, down 0.5% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 981.1 points, down 5.9% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - In July, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5. The service PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5. The composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, significantly higher than 0.2 in June and the market - expected 1.1, reaching the highest level since April 2022 [3] - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [4] - In July, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous value 52.9); the service PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53, previous value 52.9); the Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [4] Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, with no substantial progress in negotiations. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [5] - On August 19, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1370.3, a decline of 0.80%, with a trading volume of 27,300 lots and an open interest of 52,800 lots, a decrease of 383 lots from the previous day [5] - Hamas released a ceasefire expectation, but Israel denied the information. Coupled with some liner companies continuously lowering freight rates, the market fluctuated widely [5] Strategy Recommendations Short - term Strategy - The main contract remains weak, while the far - month contracts are stronger. Risk - takers can try to lightly go long on the 2510 contract around 1300 and the 2512 contract around 1750. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - loss orders [6] Arbitrage Strategy - Against the backdrop of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines temporarily or try with light positions [6] Long - term Strategy - It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then determine the subsequent direction [6] Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [6] - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Oscillating weakly [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rebar and Coil: Bearish [2] - Glass: Bearish [2] - Soda Ash: Weak [2] - CSI 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2-Year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-Year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-Year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [6] - Soybean Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Palm Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [6] - Live Pigs: Oscillating weakly [8] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Buy on dips [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Viewpoints - The short-term manufacturing recovery has been interrupted, and the ZZJ meeting fell short of expectations. The domestic supply policy expectations have been temporarily disproven, leading to intensified capital-level gaming and market corrections. The fundamentals of various commodities show different characteristics, with some facing supply and demand imbalances, while others are affected by policy, market sentiment, and cost factors [2][4][6][8][10]. - The fiscal revenue has shown positive growth, and the central bank has increased support for disaster-stricken areas. The market sentiment for stock index futures is bullish, while the trend of treasury bonds is weakening. Gold is affected by multiple factors and is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron Ore: Global shipments have increased significantly, port inventories have slightly risen, but there is no obvious pressure to accumulate inventory under high port clearance. Terminal demand is weak, and steel mills have limited motivation to cut production actively. In late August, there are expectations of production cuts in northern regions, but the intensity is lower than expected. The short-term fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it is expected to operate weakly [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the main coking coal futures contract. The demand for real estate and infrastructure is weak, and coking coal is undergoing high-level adjustments. The overall recovery of coal mines in the production areas is still slow, and the inventory of clean coal in coal mines last week reached the lowest level since March 2024. The downstream coking and steel enterprises maintain high operating rates, and some coal mines have saturated pre-sales orders. In the short term, coal prices are still supported. Overall, the long-term coking production restrictions in Hebei and Shandong have positive factors on the supply side, and the short-term adjustment range is limited. To break through the previous high, continuous reduction in supply is required [2]. - Rebar and Coil: The production restriction policy for Tangshan steel mills is clear, and the reduction is lower than expected. The demand for building materials has declined month-on-month, external demand exports have been overdrawn in advance, real estate investment continues to decline, and the total demand is difficult to show counter-seasonal performance. With no increase in total demand throughout the year, a pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed. The profits of the five major steel products are acceptable, production has increased slightly, apparent demand has declined, and steel mill inventories have accelerated to accumulate. The increase in social inventories has expanded. In mid-August, there are expectations of supply contraction due to military parade production restrictions, and the overall inventory pressure in the steel market is not large. During the traditional peak season, the spot demand for rebar is still weak, and there is pressure from warehouse receipts. In the short term, rebar futures will undergo significant adjustments to find support [2]. - Glass: Market sentiment has cooled significantly, and the middle and lower reaches are in the stage of digesting previous inventories, with a significant weakening of restocking demand. The short-term supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly. There is no water release or ignition of glass production lines, the operating rate is basically stable, weekly production remains unchanged month-on-month, and manufacturer inventories continue to accumulate. During the military parade, it is unlikely for glass factories in Shahe to stop production. The market is subject to many sentiment disturbances, and there is room for restocking in the middle and lower reaches of the glass industry, but the rigid demand has not recovered. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment cycle, and the demand for glass is difficult to rebound significantly. In the short term, the spot is weak, the futures price has broken through the support level, and attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2]. - Soda Ash: The short-term spot is weak, the futures price has broken through the support level, and attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2] Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures/Options: On the previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index closed down 0.38%, the SSE 50 Index closed down 0.93%, the CSI 500 Index closed down 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index closed up 0.07%. Funds flowed into the soft drink and forestry sectors, while funds flowed out of the insurance and aerospace and defense sectors. In July, the national general public budget revenue increased by 2.6% year-on-year, with central and local revenues increasing by 2.2% and 3.1% respectively, the highest monthly growth rate this year. From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, and the growth rate turned positive. Since April, national tax revenues have shown a year-on-year growth trend, driving the continuous recovery of fiscal revenues. In July, tax revenues increased by 5%, reaching a new high this year, and the decline in tax revenues from January to July narrowed significantly by 0.9 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. The People's Bank of China has increased the quota of re-lending for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 100 billion yuan. Market sentiment is bullish, and liquidity is increasing. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2][4]. - Treasury Bonds: The yield to maturity of the 10-year China Bond has decreased by 1bp, FR007 has increased by 7bps, and SHIBOR3M has remained flat. The central bank conducted 580.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations on August 19, with a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan. Market interest rates are fluctuating, and the trend of treasury bonds is weakening. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - Gold: In the context of a high-interest rate environment and global restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The actions of central banks are crucial, reflecting the demand for "decentralization" and risk aversion. In terms of currency attributes, Trump's "Make America Great Again" bill has been passed, which may exacerbate the US debt problem and lead to cracks in the US dollar's currency credit. In the process of de-dollarization, the non-fiat currency attribute of gold is prominent. In terms of financial attributes, in a global high-interest rate environment, the substitution effect of gold as a zero-yield bond for bonds has weakened, and its sensitivity to the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds has decreased. In terms of risk aversion, geopolitical risks have marginally weakened, but Trump's tariff policies have intensified global trade tensions, and market risk aversion remains, which is an important factor driving up the gold price. In terms of commodity attributes, the demand for physical gold in China has significantly increased, and the central bank has restarted gold purchases since November last year and has increased its holdings for eight consecutive months. Currently, the logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed. The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policies may be short-term disturbing factors. It is expected that this year's interest rate policy will be more cautious, and the evolution of tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts will dominate market risk aversion. According to the latest US data, non-farm payrolls show that the labor market is unexpectedly weak, non-farm employment is lower than market expectations, and the unemployment rate has risen to 4.2%. The PCE data in June shows that inflation has slowed down, with core PCE rising by 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, and PCE rising by 2.6% year-on-year, also exceeding market expectations. In July, CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.8%, the same as the previous month. In the short term, the prospect of peace between Russia and Ukraine may increase, which will suppress the risk aversion demand for gold. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September reaches about 85%, and the rate cut expectation has been fully priced in. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech this week, and it is expected that the gold price will remain in high-level oscillation [4]. Light Industry and Agriculture - Pulp: The spot market price was stable on the previous trading day. The latest FOB price for softwood pulp remained at $720/ton, and for hardwood pulp at $500/ton. The cost support for pulp prices has weakened. The profitability of the paper industry is at a low level, paper mills have high inventory pressure, and their acceptance of high-priced pulp is low. Demand is in the off-season, and raw materials are purchased on a rigid basis, which is negative for pulp prices. The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is at a critical point. It is expected that pulp prices will mainly consolidate [6]. - Logs: The average daily shipment volume of logs at ports last week was 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 cubic meters from the previous week. As the "Golden September and Silver October" season approaches, the willingness of processing plants to stock up has increased, and the average daily outbound volume has remained relatively stable at over 60,000 cubic meters. In July, the volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China was 1.476 million cubic meters, a 5% increase from the previous month. The shipment volume in July was low, and it is expected that the arrival volume in August will remain low. The expected arrival volume this week is 323,000 cubic meters, a month-on-month increase. The recent arrival of ships has decreased, and the supply pressure is not large. As of last week, the log inventory at ports was 3.06 million cubic meters, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 cubic meters, approaching the critical threshold of 3 million cubic meters. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline. The spot market price is stable, with the price of 6-meter Class A logs in the Shandong spot market stable at 790 yuan/cubic meter and in the Jiangsu market at 800 yuan/cubic meter. The CFR price in August is $116/cubic meter, a $2 increase from the previous month, and cost support has strengthened. In the short term, the spot market price is stable, the expected arrival of logs this week will increase month-on-month, the overall supply pressure is not large, and as the processing plants' willingness to stock up increases as September approaches, the average daily outbound volume remains at 63,000 cubic meters. The fundamentals have few contradictions, and it is expected that log prices will mainly range-bound [6]. - Oils and Fats: In July, Malaysian palm oil continued the trend of increasing production and inventory accumulation, but the ending inventory of 2.11 million tons was far lower than market expectations. Although the production increase was lower than expected, it was still at a relatively high level. Shipping agency data shows that the export demand for Malaysian palm oil has been strong since August. Although the implementation time of Indonesia's biodiesel policy is uncertain, the demand growth still provides long-term support for palm oil prices. The import volume of soybeans to China in August remains high, oil mills have a high operating rate, and the export volume of soybean oil to India has increased, but it has not stopped the inventory accumulation trend of soybean oil in oil mills. Palm oil inventory may rebound, and rapeseed oil continues to reduce inventory. The double festival stocking may gradually start, and demand will pick up. However, international crude oil futures have declined, and Chicago soybean oil futures have also fallen, dragging down the price of oils and fats. After a significant increase in the early stage, oils and fats may oscillate and correct in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - Grains and Oilseeds: The USDA has significantly reduced the planted area of soybeans. Although the yield per unit has increased significantly, the initial inventory, production, and ending inventory of US soybeans have all decreased. Most US soybeans are in the critical pod-setting stage, and there is some rain in the central and western regions, but the temperature is high. The crop inspection data from ProFarmer shows that the number of pods per plant is higher than last year and the three-year average, and there are still expectations of a bumper harvest for US soybeans. The Ministry of Commerce has imposed anti-dumping measures on imported Canadian rapeseed, increasing the import cost, and the market is worried about a supply shortage. Before the export of US soybeans shows substantial improvement, the high premium pattern of Brazilian soybeans is difficult to change, providing cost support for domestic soybean meal. The arrival volume of soybeans in China from August to September is high, the operating rhythm of oil mills is generally high, and the inventory of soybean meal is at a high level, with a very abundant supply. After the downstream has completed centralized restocking, the purchasing sentiment has returned to caution. It is expected that soybean meal will oscillate. Attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean-producing areas and the arrival of soybeans [6]. - Live Pigs: On the supply side, the average trading weight of live pigs in China continues to decline. The average trading weight of live pigs has dropped to 124.03 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01%. The average trading weights of live pigs in various provinces have fluctuated, but overall, they are still decreasing. The recent increase in temperature has slowed down the weight gain of live pigs, and after the premium of fat pigs over standard pigs turned positive, the price of large pigs is relatively high. Slaughtering enterprises have increased their procurement of low-priced standard pigs to relieve the procurement pressure, resulting in a decline in the overall procurement weight. As the breeding side may continue to adopt a weight reduction strategy and slaughtering enterprises will still focus on purchasing standard pigs, it is expected that the average trading weight of live pigs in most regions will continue to decline. On the demand side, the average settlement price of live pigs for key slaughtering enterprises in China last week was 14.17 yuan/kg. The settlement price has shown a downward trend. Affected by the accelerated slaughtering rhythm of the breeding side and the impact of high temperatures on terminal consumption, slaughtering enterprises have pressured prices for procurement, causing the price to fall from a high level. The average operating rate of key slaughtering enterprises is 33.25%, a month-on-month increase of 0.76 percentage points. The price difference between fat and standard pigs in China has shown an oscillating and fluctuating trend, and the overall average has remained stable. At the beginning of the week, due to the tight supply of large pigs in some regions, the price of fat pigs was supported, driving the price difference to widen. As the supply of large pigs in some regions increased and demand was flat, the price difference narrowed. Near the weekend, due to the increased enthusiasm of the breeding side for slaughtering, the concentrated release of standard pig supply led to a rapid decline in prices, causing the price difference to widen again. Against the background of a continuous increase in live pig supply and high temperatures continuing to restrict consumption demand, the weekly average price of live pigs in the next week may remain oscillating [8]. Soft Commodities and Chemicals - Natural Rubber: The impact of weather factors in the main natural rubber producing areas has weakened, but the geopolitical conflict has not been effectively resolved, slightly interfering with rubber tapping work. The profit from rubber tapping in the Yunnan production area has increased slightly, and the tight supply of raw materials has supported the purchase price at a high level. The weather in the Hainan production area is currently good, but the overall latex production is lower than the same period last year and lower than expectations. Driven by the futures market, the procurement enthusiasm of local processing plants has increased, and the raw material purchase price has also increased. In Thailand, the price of cup lump rubber has continued to rise, but the profit has continued to narrow, and the rubber tapping progress in some areas is restricted by geopolitical factors. The weather in the Vietnam production area is good, and the raw material price has also shown an upward trend. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 69.7%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.27 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full-steel tire sample enterprises is 60.06%, a month-on-month increase of 0.80 percentage points. In terms of production, the overall capacity of semi-steel tire enterprises has been dragged down by the shutdown and production reduction of individual factories, while the utilization rate of full-steel tire enterprises has increased due to the resumption of work of some maintenance enterprises and the moderate increase in production of enterprises with shortages. The capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tires may show a differentiated trend. On the one hand, the resumption of work of

Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the reports. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] - Given the short - term market fluctuations, it is not advisable to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1] - The market may experience wide - range fluctuations when the basis converges, and attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary by Related Content Shipping Freight Index - On August 18, the NCFI (composite index) was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5%; the NCFI (European route) was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1106.29 points, up 2.2%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1] - On August 15, the SCFI was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI European route price was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI (European route) was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI (US West route) was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1] Economic Data of Different Regions - In the Eurozone in July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the services PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8; the SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2] - In the US in July, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7); the services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53); the Markit composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [2] - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] Futures Market - On August 18, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1373.1, with a gain of 0.01%, the trading volume was 28,100 lots, and the open interest was 53,200 lots, a decrease of 1677 lots from the previous day [3] - The SCFIS European route index declined again, and some liner companies continued to lower spot freight rates. The market is in a wait - and - see mood, and the futures market may fluctuate widely when the basis converges [3] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Risk - takers can try to go long lightly around 1300 of the 2510 contract, pay attention to the subsequent market trend, and set stop - loss [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see or participate lightly [4] - Long - term strategy: It is advisable to take profits when the contracts rise, and then judge the subsequent direction after the price stabilizes [4] Policy Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] Core Viewpoints - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is challenging, and it is advisable to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [3] - With the SCFIS European route index declining again and some shipping companies reducing spot freight rates, the market is cautious, and the futures market may fluctuate widely when the basis converges. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary by Related Content Shipping Market - On August 15 - 18, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2180.17 points, down 2.5%; the NCFI for the European route was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1106.29 points, up 2.2%; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1] - On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI for the European route was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI for the European route was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI for the US - West route was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1] Economic Data - In July, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5; the service PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2] - In July, the US manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 52.9; the service PMI was 55.2, higher than the expected 53 and the previous value of 52.9; the composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [2] - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [2] Futures Market - On August 18, the main contract 2510 closed at 1373.1, with a gain of 0.01%, a trading volume of 28,100 lots, and an open interest of 53,200 lots, a decrease of 1677 lots from the previous day [3] Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, they can try to go long lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and holding losing positions is not recommended. Stop - loss should be set [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Given the volatile international situation, it is advisable to wait and see or participate with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: Profits should be taken when the contracts rise, and after waiting for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, the subsequent direction can be judged [4] Policy Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, and rolled steel are rated as high-level fluctuations; glass and soda ash are rated as fluctuations [2]. - **Financial Industry**: CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as upward trends; SSE 50 is rated as a rebound; CSI 300 is rated as fluctuations; 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds are rated as fluctuations, with the 10 - year treasury bond showing a weakening trend; gold and silver are rated as high - level fluctuations [2][4]. - **Light Industry**: Pulp is rated as consolidation; logs are rated as range fluctuations; soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are rated as fluctuating upward; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean No. 2 are rated as strongly fluctuating; soybean No. 1 is rated as weakly fluctuating [6]. - **Agricultural Products**: Live pigs are rated as weakly fluctuating [8]. - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber is rated as fluctuations; PX is rated as on - hold; PTA is rated as fluctuations; MEG is rated as buy - on - dips; PR and PF are rated as on - hold [10]. 2. Core Views - **Black Industry**: The short - term fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions, with high - level fluctuations expected. Coal coke has limited short - term adjustment amplitudes, and it's recommended to buy after corrections. Rolled steel has supply reduction expectations, and short - term steel prices are supported by macro and policy factors. Glass has no obvious improvement in short - term supply - demand patterns, and long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly [2]. - **Financial Industry**: The market's bullish sentiment is rising, and it's recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. Treasury bond prices are falling, and it's recommended to hold long positions lightly. Gold prices are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, affected by factors such as interest rate policies, tariff policies, and geopolitical conflicts [2][4]. - **Light Industry**: Pulp shows a supply - demand weak pattern and is expected to consolidate. Logs have limited supply pressure and are expected to range - fluctuate. Oils are expected to fluctuate upward, but attention should be paid to correction risks. Meal products are expected to strongly fluctuate, and attention should be paid to soybean weather and arrival conditions [6]. - **Agricultural Products**: The average trading weight of live pigs is expected to decline further, and prices are expected to weakly fluctuate due to increased supply and weak consumption [8]. - **Soft Commodities**: Natural rubber prices are expected to run strongly in the short term due to supply - side benefits. PX is in short supply in the short term, PTA prices follow cost fluctuations, MEG can be bought on dips, and PR and PF are expected to follow cost - side trends [10]. 3. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Short - term manufacturing recovery is interrupted, global shipments have increased significantly, port inventories have slightly increased, terminal demand is weak, and high - level fluctuations are expected [2]. - **Coal Coke**: The exchange has adjusted trading limits, demand is weak, coal mine inventories are at a low level, and short - term adjustment amplitudes are limited [2]. - **Rolled Steel**: Tangshan's steel mill production - restriction policies are clear, supply reduction is expected, demand is weak, and high - level fluctuations are expected [2]. - **Glass**: Market sentiment has cooled, supply - demand patterns have not improved, inventories are increasing, and long - term demand is difficult to recover [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Indexes showed different trends last trading day, funds flowed in and out of different sectors, and it's recommended to hold long positions [2][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields are rising, the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations, and it's recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Pricing mechanisms are changing, affected by multiple factors, and high - level fluctuations are expected [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: Spot prices are stable, cost support is weakening, demand is in the off - season, and consolidation is expected [6]. - **Logs**: Port shipments are relatively stable, supply pressure is not large, inventories are decreasing, and cost support is increasing, with range fluctuations expected [6]. - **Oils**: Malaysian palm oil production and inventories are increasing, exports are strong, domestic soybean arrivals are high, and oils are expected to fluctuate upward [6]. - **Meal Products**: US soybean planting area has decreased, domestic soybean arrivals are high, and meal products are expected to strongly fluctuate [6]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supply - side trading weights are declining, demand - side prices are falling, and prices are expected to weakly fluctuate [8]. Soft Commodities - **Natural Rubber**: Supply - side factors are improving, demand is relatively stable, inventories are decreasing, and prices are expected to run strongly [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX is in short supply in the short term, PTA prices follow cost fluctuations, MEG can be bought on dips, and PR and PF are expected to follow cost - side trends [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [3] - For short - term, risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract around 1300; for arbitrage, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position; for long - term, take profit when the contracts rise and wait for a pullback to determine the subsequent direction [4] Summary by Related Content Shipping Index - On August 15, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7%; the NCFI for the European route was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1082.14 points, down 4.2%; the NCFI for the US West route was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1] - On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI for the European route was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI for the European route was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI for the US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI for the US West route was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1] Economic Data - In July, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.8, the service PMI was 51.2, and the composite PMI was 51, all higher than expected. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2] - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] - In July, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7), the service PMI was 55.2, and the composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [2] Market Conditions - Sino - US tariff extension continues with no substantial progress in negotiations. The tariff war has become a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly declined [3] - On August 15, the main contract 2510 closed at 1373.6, up 1.10%, with a trading volume of 31,100 lots and an open interest of 54,900 lots, a decrease of 1839 lots from the previous day [3] - Market pessimism has been repaired, some short - sellers have taken profits and left the market, the spot freight rate has stabilized, and the futures market has fluctuated widely. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Trading Strategies - Short - term: Risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract around 1300, pay attention to subsequent market trends, and set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [4] - Long - term: Take profit when the contracts rise, wait for a pullback to stabilize, and then determine the subsequent direction [4] Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4] Geopolitical News - On the evening of the 16th local time, regarding the possible restart of the Gaza cease - fire negotiations, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office stated that Israel's condition for reaching an agreement is the one - time release of all Israeli detainees and the agreement must meet Israel's conditions for ending the war [5] - On the 13th local time, the Hamas delegation held talks with the Egyptian intelligence chief in Cairo on promoting the cease - fire in Gaza. Hamas hopes to resume cease - fire negotiations as soon as possible [5] Shipping Industry Forecast - Global container shipping volume is expected to grow by 3% year - on - year in 2025 and 2026 after a 6% increase in 2024. The global container fleet may not scrap any capacity in 2025. The global ship delivery volume is expected to be 1.8 million TEUs in 2025 and 1.6 million TEUs in 2026. There are currently 9.3 million TEUs in global ship orders, accounting for 29% of the global fleet, up from 27% in 2024 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - The short - term strategy suggests that risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract around 1300, pay attention to subsequent market trends, and set stop - losses [4]. - For the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position due to large fluctuations [4]. - For the long - term strategy, it is advised to take profits when the contracts rise, and then judge the subsequent direction after waiting for the callback to stabilize [4]. Summary by Related Information Shipping Indexes - On August 15, compared with the previous period, the NCFI (composite index) was 1052.5 points, down 0.1%; the SCFIS (European route) was 2235.48 points, down 2.7%; the NCFI (European route) was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1082.14 points, down 4.2%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1]. - On August 15, the SCFI was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI European route price was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI (European route) was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI (US West route) was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1]. Economic Data - In the Eurozone in July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8 (expected 49.7, previous 49.5), the services PMI was 51.2 (expected 50.7, previous 50.5), the composite PMI was 51 (expected 50.8, previous 50.6), and the SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5 [2]. - In the US in July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous 52.9), the services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53, previous 52.9), and the Markit composite PMI was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [2]. Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension continues with no substantial progress in negotiations. The tariff war has become a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [3]. - On August 15, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1373.6, with a gain of 1.10%, a trading volume of 31,100 lots, and an open interest of 54,900 lots, a decrease of 1839 lots from the previous day [3]. - Market pessimism has been repaired, some short - sellers have taken profits and left the market, the spot freight rate has stabilized, and the futures market has fluctuated widely [3]. Shipping Market Forecast - German container shipping company Hapag - Lloyd expects global container shipping volume to increase by 3% year - on - year in 2025 and 2026. The global container fleet may not scrap any capacity in 2025. The expected global ship delivery volume is 3.1 million TEUs in 2024, 1.8 million TEUs in 2025, and 1.6 million TEUs in 2026. The current global ship orders are 9.3 million TEUs, accounting for 29% of the global fleet [5]. Policy Adjustments - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4].