Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weak [2] - Rebar: Weak [2] - Glass: Volatile and weak [2] - CSI 300: Volatile [3] - SSE 50: Upward [3] - CSI 500: Volatile [3] - CSI 1000: Upward [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatile [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatile [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Decline [3] - Gold: Volatile and strong [3] - Silver: Volatile and strong [3] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Soybean oil: Volatile [6] - Palm oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [6] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [6] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [6] - Live pigs: Volatile and strong [7] - Rubber: Volatile [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Volatile [10] - MEG: Wait-and-see [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Views - The iron ore market is expected to follow the finished products in high-level volatile adjustments due to limited fundamental contradictions in the short term [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is likely to be volatile and weak as the fundamentals continue to deteriorate [2]. - The rebar market remains in a weak fundamental pattern, with supply remaining relatively high and demand difficult to show counter-seasonal performance [2]. - The glass market has seen a significant cooling of market sentiment, and the short-term supply-demand pattern has not improved significantly [2]. - The stock index market has rebounded, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and increase long positions in stock indices [3]. - The Treasury bond market has shown a weakening trend, and long positions in Treasury bonds should be held lightly [3]. - The gold market is expected to be volatile and strong, with the Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy being potential short-term disturbance factors [3]. - The pulp market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to consolidate [6]. - The log market is expected to be range-bound, with limited supply pressure and uncertain peak season demand [6]. - The oil and fat market is likely to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean production area and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - The meal market is expected to rebound with the support of the external market, and attention should be paid to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [6]. - The live pig market is expected to see a slight increase in prices next week, with support from school start-up demand and cost factors [7]. - The rubber market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by supply shortages and inventory declines [10]. - The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are in a state of wait-and-see or volatile, with prices mainly following cost fluctuations [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Series - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is affected by the steel industry's stable growth policy, with raw material sentiment boosted and prices relatively strong. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and it is expected to follow the finished products in high-level volatile adjustments [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are deteriorating, with increasing supply and decreasing demand. The short-term black market sentiment has cooled significantly, and the market is expected to be volatile and weak [2]. - **Rebar**: The rebar market is in a weak fundamental pattern, with supply remaining high and demand difficult to improve. The traditional peak season has arrived, but the spot demand is still weak, and the short-term contract is expected to continue to be weak [2]. Non-ferrous and Financial Series - **Stock Indices**: The stock index market has rebounded, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and increase long positions in stock indices. The market is affected by factors such as the SCO summit and the implementation of the consumer loan subsidy policy [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The Treasury bond market has shown a weakening trend, with market interest rate fluctuations. Long positions in Treasury bonds should be held lightly [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The gold and silver markets are expected to be volatile and strong, with the Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy being potential short-term disturbance factors. The market is also affected by factors such as the weakening of the US labor market and the slowdown of inflation [3]. Forestry and Agricultural Products Series - **Pulp**: The pulp market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with cost support weakening and demand improvement uncertain. Prices are expected to consolidate [6]. - **Logs**: The log market is expected to be range-bound, with limited supply pressure and uncertain peak season demand. The spot market price is relatively stable, and the cost support remains [6]. - **Oil and Fats**: The oil and fat market is likely to be volatile in the short term, with overall raw material supply being relatively loose and demand being affected by policies and consumption upgrades. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean production area and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - **Meals**: The meal market is expected to rebound with the support of the external market, but the increase is limited by the expected increase in production. Attention should be paid to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [6]. - **Live Pigs**: The live pig market is expected to see a slight increase in prices next week, with support from school start-up demand and cost factors. The market is also affected by factors such as the supply and demand structure and inventory levels [7]. Chemical and Soft Commodities Series - **Rubber**: The rubber market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by supply shortages and inventory declines. The market is also affected by factors such as the impact of the approaching military parade on downstream operations and the overall strength of the commodity market [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF**: The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are in a state of wait-and-see or volatile, with prices mainly following cost fluctuations. The markets are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply and demand relationships, and cost changes [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - SCFI is on a downward trend, the market is under pressure and volatile, and it's not recommended to increase positions. Instead, set stop - losses [1] - Given geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it's advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [4] - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Freight Index - On August 25, SCFIS (European route) was 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1041.38 points, down 5.9% [2] - On August 29, NCFI (composite index) was 1098.17 points, up 6.02%; NCFI (European route) was 929.56 points, down 14.23%; NCFI (US West route) was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% [2] - On August 29, SCFI was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points; SCFI European line price was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21%; SCFI US West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% [2] - On August 29, CCFI (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6%; CCFI (European route) was 1685.80 points, down 4.1%; CCFI (US West route) was 774.39 points, down 3.1% [2] Economic Data - Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5, service PMI was 50.7, and composite PMI rose to 51.1, the highest since May 2024. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 [2] - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] - US August Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022; service PMI was 55.4 [3] Market Conditions - As of August 29, the main contract 2510 closed at 1261.0, down 2.15%, with a trading volume of 25,200 lots and an open interest of 53,200 lots, a decrease of 988 lots from the previous day [4] Strategies - Short - term: For risk - takers, it's recommended to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage: In the context of international instability, it's advisable to stay on the sidelines or lightly attempt [5] - Long - term: It's recommended to take profits on rallies and wait for a pull - back to stabilize before making further decisions [5] Other Information - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5] - The margin for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5] - On August 26, the US Department of Commerce made a preliminary anti - dumping ruling on polypropylene corrugated boxes imported from China, with a unified rate of 83.64% [6] - On August 29, the Israeli military continued operations in the Middle East, including major strikes on Houthi targets [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is challenging, so it's recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [4]. - The overall supply - demand situation has no significant change. The freight rates on European routes continue to decline, the market is not optimistic about the subsequent freight rate trends, and the market remains under pressure [4]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Content Freight Rate Index - On August 25, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1041.38 points, down 5.9% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51); the preliminary value of the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than 50.9 in July, improving for three consecutive months and reaching the highest since May 2024, higher than the expected value of 50.7. The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in August was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2]. - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined [2]. - The value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the preliminary value of the US S&P Global service PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7); the preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [3]. Market Situation - The SCFI maintains a downward trend, the market is under pressure and volatile, and it's not recommended to increase positions. Stop - loss should be set [1]. - As of August 29, the main contract 2510 closed at 1261.0, down 2.15%, with a trading volume of 25,200 lots and an open interest of 53,200 lots, a decrease of 988 lots from the previous day [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, while the far - month contracts are strong. Risk - takers are recommended to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - loss [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic and has large fluctuations. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines or make light - position attempts [5]. - Long - term strategy: It's recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Other Information - The US - China tariff extension continues, and there is no substantial progress in the negotiation. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [4]. - On August 29, the Israeli Defense Forces continued operations in the Middle East, including a "major strike" on strategic targets of the Yemeni Houthi rebels [6]. - On August 26, the US Department of Commerce made an anti - dumping preliminary ruling on polypropylene corrugated boxes imported from China, with a preliminary ruling unified duty rate of 83.64% (the margin after offsetting subsidies was adjusted to 73.10%). The anti - dumping final ruling is expected to be combined with the counter - subsidy final ruling on November 12, 2025 [6]. - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High-level oscillatory adjustment [2] - Coking coal and coke: High-level oscillation [2] - Rebar: Oscillatory and weak [2] - Glass: Oscillatory and weak [2] - CSI 50: Upward [2] - CSI 300: Oscillatory [2] - CSI 500: Oscillatory [2] - CSI 1000: Upward [2] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillatory [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillatory [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Declining [3] - Gold: Oscillatory and strong [3] - Silver: Oscillatory and strong [3] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillatory [6] - Palm oil: Oscillatory [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillatory [6] - Soybean meal: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [6] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [7] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [7] - Live pigs: Oscillatory and strong [7] - Rubber: Oscillatory [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Oscillatory [9] - MEG: Reverse spread [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel industry's stable growth policy from 2025 - 2026 does not restrict steel production, which affects the raw material market. The short - term fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions, and it is expected to follow the finished products in high - level oscillatory adjustment. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are weakening, and the market is in high - level oscillation. Rebar is in a weak fundamental pattern, with supply remaining high and demand difficult to show counter - seasonal performance [2]. - The stock index market shows different trends, and the market as a whole rebounds. It is recommended to increase risk appetite and the long positions of stock index futures. The bond market is affected by market interest rate fluctuations, and Treasury bond bulls should hold light positions. The gold market is affected by multiple factors such as currency, finance, and geopolitics, and is expected to be oscillatory and strong [2][3]. - The pulp market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to consolidate. The log market has limited supply pressure in the short term, and prices are expected to be range - bound oscillatory. The oil and meal market is affected by factors such as production, demand, and weather, with oil prices oscillating and meal prices rebounding [6]. - The live pig market is affected by factors such as supply and demand structure and weight reduction strategies. The price is expected to rise slightly. The rubber market has positive fundamentals, and prices are expected to be oscillatory and strong. The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets in the polyester industry are affected by factors such as production, cost, and demand, showing different trends [7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Policy: The steel industry's stable growth policy from 2025 - 2026 does not restrict steel production, boosting raw material sentiment [2]. - Supply and demand: The global iron ore shipment decreases slightly, and there is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure under high port throughput. The terminal demand is weak, and the blast furnace hot metal output decreases slightly. The steel mills' profit ratio drops from a high level, and the probability of negative feedback is low [2]. - Price trend: The short - term fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it is expected to follow the finished products in high - level oscillatory adjustment [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - Supply: Upstream mines are still increasing production, and the import volume is also increasing, with the total supply of coking coal rising [2]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal output is expected to decrease by about 30,000 tons this week, and the coking coal demand reaches a new low since the second quarter [2]. - Price trend: The fundamentals are weakening, and the market is in high - level oscillation. To break through the previous high, continuous supply reduction is needed to cause a shortage in the spot market [2]. Rebar - Supply: The supply will remain relatively high as the policy does not restrict steel production [2]. - Demand: The building material demand rebounds slightly, but the overall demand is difficult to show counter - seasonal performance, forming a pattern of high in the front and low in the back [2]. - Price trend: The traditional peak season has arrived, but the spot demand is still weak, and the futures price breaks below the 60 - day line and continues to run weakly [2]. Glass - Supply and demand: The market sentiment cools down, the downstream is in the stage of digesting inventory, and the restocking demand weakens. The short - term supply - demand pattern has no obvious improvement [2]. - Cost: Frequent accidents in the coal supply end may cause fluctuations in cost expectations [2]. - Price trend: The long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly. The short - term spot is weak, and the disk price focuses on the 60 - day line support [2]. Stock Index Futures/Options - Market performance: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.74%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.53%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.47%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.11% [2]. - Industry trends: Funds flow into the electric power grid and automobile sectors, and flow out of the aviation and shipping sectors. The official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI in August all increased month - on - month [2][3]. - Investment advice: The market as a whole rebounds, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and the long positions of stock index futures [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market factors: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond decreases by 1bp, FR007 decreases by 5bps, and SHIBOR3M remains flat. The central bank conducts a large - scale reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 421.7 billion yuan [3]. - Price trend: Affected by market interest rate fluctuations, Treasury bond bulls should hold light positions [3]. Gold - Pricing factors: The pricing mechanism is shifting from real interest rate - centered to central bank gold - buying - centered. It is affected by currency, finance, geopolitics, and other factors [3]. - Market data: The US non - farm payroll data shows a weak labor market, the unemployment rate rises to 4.2%, and the inflation data slows down [3]. - Price trend: The logic of the current gold price increase has not completely reversed, and it is expected to be oscillatory and strong [3]. Pulp - Supply and demand: The pulp market has a pattern of weak supply and demand. The paper mills' inventory pressure is large, and the acceptance of high - price pulp is low. The demand improvement expectation needs to be verified [6]. - Price trend: The current price is at a key point, and prices are expected to consolidate [6]. Logs - Supply: The arrival volume is expected to remain low in August, and the supply pressure is not large. The cost - side support is strengthening [6]. - Demand: The processing plants' willingness to stock up increases, and the daily average outbound volume is relatively strong [6]. - Price trend: The spot market price is stable, and prices are expected to be range - bound oscillatory [6]. Oil and Meal - Supply: The supply of oilseeds is relatively loose, but the soybean meal production increases, and the port inventory remains at a high level [6]. - Demand: The demand for biodiesel and high - end oilseeds increases, and the domestic demand for oil and meal is affected by factors such as consumption and production [6]. - Price trend: The oil prices oscillate, and the meal prices rebound, with the price increase of meal limited by the production increase expectation [6]. Live Pigs - Supply: The average transaction weight of live pigs continues to decline slightly, and the supply of large pigs is tight [7]. - Demand: The opening rate of key slaughtering enterprises increases slightly, and the school - opening procurement demand is expected to increase [7]. - Price trend: The price is expected to rise slightly, with cost support at the bottom [7]. Rubber - Supply: The raw material supply in Yunnan and Hainan is affected by weather, and the raw material prices in Thailand and Vietnam are rising [9]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires decreases slightly, and that of all - steel tires increases slightly [9]. - Inventory: The inventory in Qingdao Port decreases, and the inventory is expected to further decline [9]. - Price trend: The price is expected to be oscillatory and strong, but the early - September domestic parade may affect downstream operations [9]. Polyester Industry - PX: The oil price is under pressure, the PTA load weakens, and the polyester load rebounds. The short - term supply - demand pressure is not large, and the price follows the oil price [9]. - PTA: The cost - side support is general, the supply decreases, the downstream load rebounds, and the price follows the cost [9]. - MEG: The port inventory may continue to decline, the supply pressure increases, and the mid - term supply - demand is in a wide balance. The low inventory supports the price [9]. - PR: The demand is for rigid restocking at low prices, and the market is weak under the supply - demand game [9]. - PF: The self - supply and demand of polyester staple fiber is weak, but it may be strong under the background of PTA supply reduction, and the price is expected to oscillate [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties increase the difficulty of market gaming, so it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [4] - Commodities remain in a bearish trend, with the market under pressure and fluctuating at a low level. It is not recommended to increase positions and stop - loss should be set [1] Summary by Related Content Shipping Freight Index - On August 25, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1041.38 points, down 5.9% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1083.74 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 963.54 points, down 1.79% from the previous period. The NCFI (composite index) was 1035.79 points, down 1.59% from the previous period [2] - On August 22, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1415.36 points, down 44.83 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1668 USD/TEU, down 8.35% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 6.54% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1174.87 points, down 1.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1757.74 points, down 1.8% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 799.19 points, down 2.9% from the previous period [2] Economic Data of Different Regions - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51); the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, and reached the highest level since May 2024. The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in August was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5). In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), reaching a 39 - month high; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7). The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, the highest level since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [3] Trade and Tariff Issues - The extension of China - US tariffs continues, and there is no substantial progress in the negotiations. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [4] - On August 26, the US Department of Commerce announced an anti - dumping preliminary ruling on polypropylene corrugated boxes imported from China, with a preliminary ruling of a unified national tax rate of 83.64% (the margin after offsetting subsidies was adjusted to 73.10%). The anti - dumping final ruling is expected to be combined with the counter - subsidy final ruling on November 12, 2025 [5] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contract is strong. Risk - preference investors are recommended to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - loss [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or try with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: High - level profit - taking is recommended for each contract. Wait for the callback to stabilize and then judge the subsequent direction [4] Contract Information - On August 28, the main contract 2510 closed at 1285.0, down 3.31%, with a trading volume of 25,300 lots and an open interest of 54,200 lots, an increase of 523 lots from the previous day [4] - The daily limit and lower limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 were adjusted to 18% [4] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4] Geopolitical Events - On August 27, the Houthi armed forces issued a statement saying that their missile forces carried out a military strike on targets in Israel to respond to Israel's continuous military operations in the Gaza Strip. A "Palestine - 2" hypersonic ballistic missile was used to strike Ben - Gurion International Airport south of Tel Aviv, causing the airport to suspend operations [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Commodities remain in a bearish trend, with the market under pressure and fluctuating at low levels. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1]. - Considering geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. The main contract is weak, while the far - month contracts are stronger. For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend and do not hold losing positions. Set stop - loss [4]. - In the context of international instability, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions for arbitrage strategies. For long - term strategies, it is recommended to set medium - to - high profit - taking levels, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - On August 25, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1041.38 points, down 5.9% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1083.74 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 963.54 points, down 1.79% from the previous period. The NCFI (composite index) was 1035.79 points, down 1.59% from the previous period [2]. - On August 22, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1415.36 points, down 44.83 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European line was 1668 USD/TEU, down 8.35% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 6.54% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1174.87 points, down 1.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1757.74 points, down 1.8% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 799.19 points, down 2.9% from the previous period [2]. Manufacturing and Service PMIs - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the service PMI preliminary value was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, reaching the highest since May 2024. The eurozone's August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2]. - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7). The US August Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [3]. Trade - related Information - The extension of Sino - US tariffs continues, and there has been no substantial progress in the negotiations. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation problem between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly declined [4]. - On August 26, the US Department of Commerce announced an anti - dumping preliminary ruling on polypropylene corrugated boxes imported from China, with a preliminary determined unified national tax rate of 83.64% (the margin after offsetting subsidies was adjusted to 73.10%). The anti - dumping final ruling is expected to be combined with the counter - subsidy final ruling on November 12, 2025 [5]. Futures Contract Information - On August 28, the main contract 2510 closed at 1285.0, down 3.31%, with a trading volume of 25,300 lots and an open interest of 54,200 lots, an increase of 523 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical Event - On August 27, the Houthi armed forces announced that their missile forces carried out a military strike on targets in Israel, using a "Palestine - 2" hypersonic ballistic missile to strike Ben - Gurion International Airport south of Tel Aviv, causing the airport to suspend operations [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar (Rolled steel): Oscillation with a weak bias [2] - Glass: Oscillation with a weak bias [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Upward [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Decline [4] - Gold: Oscillation with a strong bias [4] - Silver: Oscillation with a strong bias [4] - Pulp: Weak operation [5] - Logs: Range oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Oscillation [5] - Palm oil: Oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a weak bias [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: Wait - and - see [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Reverse spread [10] - PR: Wait - and - see [10] - PF: Wait - and - see [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex trend, with different products having different outlooks based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals, policy factors, and geopolitical situations. For example, the black industry is affected by production restrictions and demand trends; the financial market is influenced by policies and market sentiment; precious metals are driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation data; and agricultural products are affected by weather, planting area, and consumption demand [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The fundamental contradiction is not prominent. The probability of an interest rate cut in September is high, supporting commodities. The expectation of domestic blast furnace production restrictions has been temporarily disproven, and the impact on demand is small. Global iron ore shipments have decreased slightly, and there is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure. Terminal demand is weak, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [2]. - **Coal and coke**: Coal supply accidents are frequent, and production reduction expectations may cause supply fluctuations. Coal mine inventories are at a low level, and downstream demand is high. Short - term price adjustments are limited, and it is recommended to buy on dips after the market sentiment is released [2]. - **Rolled steel (Rebar)**: The production restriction policy in Tangshan is clear, but the reduction is less than expected. Overall demand is difficult to show a counter - seasonal performance, and there will be a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. Spot demand for rebar is weak, and futures prices are looking for support after a significant adjustment [2]. - **Glass**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly in the short term. The key for the 01 contract is the cold - repair path. The long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly due to the adjustment of the real estate industry [2]. Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: The market has rebounded, and it is recommended to increase risk preference and long - position holdings. The release of relevant policies and international trade exchanges may have an impact on the market [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates are fluctuating, and the trend of Treasury bonds is weak. It is recommended that long - position holders hold lightly [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Factors such as the US debt problem, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold - buying behavior support the prices of gold and silver. Although some factors may cause short - term fluctuations, the upward - driving logic has not completely reversed [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost support for pulp prices is weak, and the paper - making industry has low profitability and high inventory pressure. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and prices are expected to decline [5]. - **Logs**: The daily shipment volume of logs is relatively stable, and the supply pressure is not large. The cost support is increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil**: The demand for soybean oil is promising due to strong export sales and relevant policies. The production and inventory of palm oil are in a certain state, and the demand growth provides long - term support. The inventory of domestic oils shows different trends, and prices are expected to oscillate after a previous sharp rise [5]. Oilseeds and Meals - **Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 1, and soybean No. 2**: The US soybean planting area has been significantly reduced, but the single - yield is expected to increase. The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias, with weather and import volume being key factors [5]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the supply is increasing. The demand is restricted by high temperatures, and prices are expected to oscillate with a weak bias in the future [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is affected by weather and geopolitical factors, and the demand is relatively stable. The inventory is decreasing, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term [10]. Polyester - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF**: These products are affected by factors such as the geopolitical situation, oil prices, supply - demand fundamentals, and cost. Different products have different outlooks, including oscillation, wait - and - see, and reverse spread [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates continue to decline, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set. Given the geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [2][5]. - In the short - term, risk - takers can try to go long lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trends and do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses. For the long - term, take profits when the contracts rise, and wait for the correction to stabilize before making further decisions [5]. - In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to temporarily stay on the sidelines or try with light positions for the arbitrage strategy [5]. 3. Summary by Related Information Freight Rate Index - On August 25, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1041.38 points, down 5.9% from the previous period. On August 22, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1083.74 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 963.54 points, down 1.79% from the previous period [3]. - On August 22, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1415.36 points, down 44.83 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1668 USD/TEU, down 8.35% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 6.54% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the European route was 1757.74 points, down 1.8% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 799.19 points, down 2.9% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5, the service PMI preliminary value was 50.7, and the composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1. The August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 [3]. - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, and the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4 [4]. Contract and Market Conditions - On August 27, the main contract 2510 closed at 1316.0, with a decline of 0.89%, a trading volume of 1.80 million lots, and an open interest of 5.37 million lots, a decrease of 684 lots from the previous day [5]. - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [5]. Geopolitical and Trade News - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The Israeli - Palestinian conflict continues, with the Israeli military's attack on a hospital in the Gaza Strip and the subsequent responses from both sides [5]. - The US will suspend the tax - free treatment for imported packages worth $800 or less from August 29, and 25 countries have announced the suspension of sending packages to the US [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate continues to decline, and the futures market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties [2][5] - The main contract remains weak, while the far - month contracts are relatively strong. Risk - takers can try light - position long positions at specific price levels for certain contracts, but should set stop - losses [5] Summary by Related Information Freight Rate Indexes - On August 25, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1041.38 points, down 5.9% [3] - On August 22, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1035.79 points, down 1.59% from the previous period; the European route was 1083.74 points, down 8.83%; the US West route was 963.54 points, down 1.79% [3] - On August 22, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1415.36 points, down 44.83 points from the previous period; the European route price was 1668 USD/TEU, down 8.35%; the US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 6.54% [3] - On August 22, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1174.87 points, down 1.5% from the previous period; the European route was 1757.74 points, down 1.8%; the US West route was 799.19 points, down 2.9% [3] PMI Data - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5, higher than the forecast of 49.5 and the previous value of 49.8; the service PMI preliminary value was 50.7, slightly lower than the forecast of 50.8 and the previous value of 51; the composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1 [3] - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4] - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high; the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4 [4] Market and Strategy - On August 27, the main contract 2510 closed at 1316.0, down 0.89%, with a trading volume of 1.80 million lots and an open interest of 5.37 million lots, a decrease of 684 lots from the previous day [5] - Short - term strategy: Risk - takers can try light - position long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract, and set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage strategy: It is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions due to large fluctuations [5] - Long - term strategy: Take profit on rallies and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [5] Other Information - Sino - US tariff extension negotiations have no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries [5] - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all these contracts is 100 lots [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Volatile [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and Coiled Steel: Volatile and Weakening [2] - Glass: Volatile and Weakening [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Declining [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatile [2] - CSI 500 Index: Volatile [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Declining [4] - 2 - Year Treasury Bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - Year Treasury Bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - Year Treasury Bond: Declining [4] - Gold: Volatile and Strengthening [4] - Silver: Volatile and Strengthening [4] - Pulp: Weakening [6] - Logs: Range - bound Volatility [6] - Soybean Oil: Volatile [6] - Palm Oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean Meal: Volatile and Bearish [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Volatile and Bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and Bearish [6][7] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and Bearish [6] - Live Pigs: Volatile and Weakening [7] - Natural Rubber: Volatile [9] - PX: Hold for Observation [9] - PTA: Volatile [9] - MEG: Reverse Spread [9] - PR: Hold for Observation [9] - PF: Hold for Observation [9] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the black industry have different characteristics, with some products having limited fundamental contradictions and expected to be volatile, while others face supply - demand imbalances and are expected to be volatile and weakening [2] - The stock index futures/options market has overall declined, and it is recommended to reduce risk appetite and long positions in stock indices. The bond market has a weakening trend, and it is advisable to hold long positions in bonds lightly. The precious metals market is expected to be volatile and strengthening, mainly influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks [2][4] - The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand and is expected to decline. The log market has limited supply pressure and is expected to be range - bound volatile [6] - The oil and fat market is expected to be volatile, mainly affected by factors such as export sales and production. The meal market is expected to be volatile and bearish, affected by factors such as production and imports [6] - The agricultural product market, represented by live pigs, is expected to be volatile and weakening due to factors such as supply increases and consumption restrictions [7] - The soft commodity market, represented by natural rubber, is expected to be volatile and strengthen in the short term due to factors such as supply tightening and inventory reduction [9] - The polyester market has different trends for different products, and short - term prices are mainly affected by factors such as cost and supply - demand [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals have limited contradictions. The probability of an interest rate cut in September is increasing, and the demand is affected little by the refutation of the domestic blast furnace production restriction expectation. The global iron ore shipment has a slight decline, and there is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure under high port clearance. The terminal demand is weak, but the blast furnace hot metal output is slightly rising, and steel mills have little motivation to actively reduce production. It is expected to be volatile [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There have been frequent accidents in the coal supply side, and the supply may fluctuate. The inventory of clean coal in coal mines has reached the lowest level since March 2024. The downstream coking and steel enterprises have high operating rates, and some coal mines have saturated pre - sold orders. The overall coking production restriction in Hebei and Shandong has a long time, and the short - term adjustment range is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips after the market sentiment is released [2] - **Rebar and Coiled Steel**: The production restriction policy of Tangshan steel mills is clear, but the production reduction is less than expected. The building material demand has a month - on - month decline, the external demand export has been overdrawn in advance, and the real estate investment continues to decline. The total demand is difficult to have an anti - seasonal performance, showing a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. The profits of the five major steel products are okay, the output has a slight increase, the apparent demand has recovered, and the steel mill inventory and social inventory are both increasing. During the military parade in mid - August, there is an expectation of supply contraction, but it is limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is intensifying. The spot demand for rebar is still weak in the traditional peak season, and the futures price is expected to find support after a significant adjustment [2] - **Glass**: The market sentiment has cooled significantly, and the middle and lower reaches are in the stage of digesting previous inventories, with a significant weakening of restocking demand. The glass production line has no water release or ignition, the operating rate is basically stable, the weekly output is stable month - on - month, and the manufacturer's inventory continues to accumulate. It is unlikely for glass factories to stop production during the military parade, and they can only choose cold repair. The market sentiment is highly volatile, and the middle and lower reaches of the glass market have room for restocking, but the rigid demand has not recovered. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in the adjustment cycle, and the glass demand is difficult to increase significantly. The short - term spot price is weak, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average on the disk [2] Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw declines in the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices. The communication equipment and Internet sectors had capital inflows, while the daily chemical and education sectors had capital outflows. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and promote service exports. In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased year - on - year, but the decline narrowed for two consecutive months, with high - tech manufacturing leading the way. The market has overall declined, and it is recommended to reduce risk appetite and long positions in stock indices [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has increased by 3 basis points, and the market interest rate has fluctuated. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 379.9 billion yuan on August 27, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan on the same day. The bond market has a weakening trend, and it is advisable to hold long positions in bonds lightly [4] - **Precious Metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The US debt problem may intensify, and the de - dollarization attribute of gold is prominent. The substitution effect of gold for bonds has weakened, and the geopolitical risk has marginally decreased, but the market's risk - aversion demand still exists. China's physical gold demand has increased significantly, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for eight consecutive months. The logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed, and the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may be short - term disturbing factors. The silver market is also expected to be volatile and strengthen [4] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is showing a differentiated trend, with the cost support for pulp prices weakening. The papermaking industry has a low profitability level, and paper mills have high inventory pressure and low acceptance of high - priced pulp. The demand is in the off - season, and raw materials are purchased on a rigid - demand basis, which is negative for pulp prices. The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand and is expected to decline [6] - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of log ports has increased, and the supply pressure is limited. The inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the spot market price is stable. The cost support has strengthened, and the delivery willingness is affected by the price range. The market is expected to be range - bound volatile [6] Oil and Fat and Meal - **Oil and Fat**: The demand for soybean oil is promising due to strong export sales and relevant policies. The palm oil production in Malaysia has increased and inventory has accumulated in July, but the end - of - period inventory is lower than expected. The export demand for palm oil has been strong since August, mainly driven by Indian festival purchases. The Indonesian biodiesel policy has uncertain implementation time but provides long - term support for palm oil prices. The domestic soybean imports in August are high, and the oil mills have high operating rates. The soybean oil inventory has pressure, the palm oil inventory has rebounded, and the rapeseed oil inventory has continued to decline. The double - festival restocking demand has recovered, and the oil and fat market is expected to be volatile after a previous significant increase [6] - **Meal**: The USDA has significantly reduced the soybean planting area. Although the yield per unit has increased significantly, the initial inventory, output, and end - of - period inventory of US soybeans have all decreased. The US soybean production area is conducive to soybean growth, and the market expects a bumper harvest of US soybeans and Canadian rapeseed, but the weather in the next month is still a key factor. Before the US soybean exports improve substantially, the high premium pattern of Brazilian soybeans is difficult to change. The domestic soybean imports from August to September are high, the oil mills have high operating rates, and the soybean meal inventory is high. After the downstream concentrated restocking, the purchasing sentiment has become cautious. The Sino - US negotiation expectation continues to disturb the market sentiment, and the meal market is expected to be volatile and bearish [6] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: On the supply side, the average trading weight of live pigs across the country has continued to decline. The temperature increase has slowed down the weight gain of pigs, and slaughter enterprises have increased the purchase of low - priced standard pigs, resulting in a decline in the overall purchase weight. It is expected that the average trading weight of live pigs in most areas will continue to decline. On the demand side, the settlement price of live pigs by key slaughter enterprises has shown a downward trend due to factors such as the accelerated slaughter by farmers and the impact of high - temperature weather on terminal consumption. The average operating rate of key slaughter enterprises has increased month - on - month. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has fluctuated, and the weekly average price of live pigs is expected to remain volatile in the future [7] Soft Commodities - **Natural Rubber**: The weather factors in the main natural rubber producing areas have less interference, and the raw material supply in Yunnan is tight, supporting high purchase prices. The glue production in Hainan is lower than expected, and the raw material purchase prices have increased due to the futures market. The cup - lump price in Thailand has continued to rise, but the profit has continued to narrow, and the geopolitical conflict in some areas has restricted the tapping progress. The raw material prices in Vietnam have also increased. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel radial tire enterprises has been affected by individual factory shutdowns and production cuts, while that of all - steel radial tire enterprises has increased due to the resumption of work by some maintenance enterprises. The inventory in Qingdao ports has decreased, with lower inbound rates and higher outbound rates. The natural rubber market still has an oversupply situation, but the gap has narrowed. With the expected increase in rainfall in the main producing areas at home and abroad in the next cycle, the expected tightening of raw material supply will drive up rubber prices, and the domestic spot inventory is expected to continue to decline. It is expected that the natural rubber price will remain strong in the short term [9] - **PX**: The decline in US commercial crude oil inventory has exceeded expectations, leading to an increase in oil prices. The PTA load has weakened, while the PX load has fluctuated and recovered. The short - term supply - demand has weakened, but the pressure is not high, and the PXN spread is relatively stable. The PX price fluctuates with oil prices [9] - **PTA**: The oil price has large fluctuations, and the cost support is average despite the stable PXN spread. The PTA supply has decreased, and the downstream polyester factory load has started to rebound, improving the PTA supply - demand situation. The short - term price mainly fluctuates with the cost [9] - **MEG**: The port inventory decreased last week, and the subsequent arrival volume is lower than expected. The terminal demand has slightly improved, domestic production has increased, and the import volume has fluctuated. The supply pressure has increased, and the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be in a wide - balance state. The short - term cost fluctuates greatly, and the low inventory supports the MEG disk price [9] - **PR**: The supply of polyester bottle chips has become more abundant, weakening the supply support. Downstream purchases are mainly for rigid - demand restocking at low prices, and the polyester bottle chip market is expected to decline weakly in a volatile manner [9] - **PF**: The polyester staple fiber has no positive factors in its own supply - demand, but the overnight increase in oil prices may be positive for the cost. The price of the polyester staple fiber market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [9]