Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Decline [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Oscillation [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Palm oil: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Live pigs: Oscillation [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment-driven rise in the iron ore market is gradually weakening, and it will return to fundamentals in the short term. The real demand for steel products continues to weaken, and the overall pattern of supply increase and demand decrease in the five major steel products has led to a reduction in the raw material procurement demand due to the decline in steel product prices. The high profit rate of steel mills and the significant reduction in molten iron production, combined with the pre - empted external demand exports, will result in a distinct pattern of high in the front and low in the back under the condition of no increase in total annual demand. The relatively high inventory level of iron ore ports also exerts pressure on prices [2]. - For coking coal, production is at a high level, and the downstream replenishment motivation is insufficient after the May Day holiday. The raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines has reached a record high. With the decline in molten iron production and the continuous increase in coking coal supply, the far - month 09 contract will continue to weaken. For coke, as the coking coal price falls, the cost of coking enterprises' incoming coal decreases, but steel mills have initiated a second price cut, squeezing the profit of coking enterprises. With the arrival of high - temperature weather, downstream demand weakens, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises increases. The pattern of coke supply surplus remains unchanged, and coal and coke generally follow the trend of steel products [2]. - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment - driven rise in the rebar market is gradually weakening. Although the demand decline rhythm is relatively slow in the short term, steel supply increases while demand decreases. The total inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the impact of the rainy season will drag down terminal demand, and inventory destocking may slow down or even increase in mid - June. Steel prices face periodic pressure. With the phased repair of long - process steel mill profits, blast furnace restarts continue, and supply remains at a high level. External demand exports are pre - empted, and real estate investment has declined across the board, resulting in a pattern of high in the front and low in the back under the condition of no increase in total annual demand [2]. - For glass, although there are rumors of planned cold - repair and production cuts by Hubei glass manufacturers, and the production and sales situation has improved, there is no substantial positive in the fundamentals. The supply of float glass has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased from a two - month high, which has improved market sentiment. However, in the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, and glass demand is difficult to recover significantly. There is a lack of driving force to push up prices during the transition from the peak season to the off - season [2]. - In the financial market, the performance of stock indexes was mixed in the previous trading day. Some sectors had capital inflows, while others had outflows. The financial data of state - owned enterprises showed that the total operating income was flat compared with the previous year, and the total profit decreased slightly. The asset - liability ratio increased slightly. The issuance of local government bonds showed certain characteristics. The sentiment in the stock index futures market has improved, and long positions can be held. The bond market has narrow - range fluctuations, and long positions in bonds can be held with a light position [2][4]. - For precious metals, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The currency, financial, and commodity attributes of gold, as well as the impact of geopolitical risks and trade policies, all affect the gold price. Although the logic driving the current gold price increase has not completely reversed, the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may cause short - term fluctuations. The silver price also shows high - level oscillation [4]. - For pulp, the decrease in raw material prices weakens the support for pulp prices. The low profitability of the papermaking industry, high inventory, and weak demand during the off - season are negative factors. However, the price increase notices issued by paper mills may boost market sentiment, and pulp prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - For logs, the daily shipment volume of log ports has increased slightly, but it is difficult to reach a high level due to the off - season. The supply from New Zealand is expected to decrease, and the inventory has increased slightly. The cost - side negative factors may weaken, and the fundamentals have marginally improved. Log prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - For oils and fats, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly due to increased production and decreased domestic consumption. Although the export potential may be stimulated, the production increase is higher than the export increase, and inventory may continue to accumulate. The supply of the three major oils and fats is abundant, and it is the traditional consumption off - season, so the price is expected to show an oscillatory and bearish trend [6]. - For meal products, the new - crop inventory of US soybeans may further tighten, but the large domestic soybean arrivals, increased oil mill operating rates, and improved domestic inventory have alleviated the supply pressure. Meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - For live pigs, the average slaughter weight has increased slightly, with regional differences. The demand of slaughtering enterprises is relatively stable, but terminal consumption demand has declined seasonally. Although it is the traditional consumption off - season, the strong demand for secondary fattening supports the price. The cost of leading enterprises provides support, and pig prices are expected to oscillate [8]. - For rubber, short - term supply is under pressure due to weather disturbances in domestic and foreign rubber - producing areas, and the raw material supply is tight. The import volume has decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has increased, but the terminal demand has not improved substantially, and inventory continues to accumulate. Rubber prices are expected to be affected by macro - sentiment and policies and maintain an oscillatory pattern [8]. - For polyester products, PX prices are expected to follow the trend of oil prices. PTA is mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations. MEG has a relatively good short - term supply - demand situation but is subject to large macro - sentiment fluctuations. Polyester bottle - grade chips and polyester staple fibers are affected by factors such as raw material supply, downstream orders, and production cuts, and their prices are expected to show a weakening trend with limited decline space [9]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The previous policy - and sentiment - driven rise is losing momentum, and it will return to fundamentals. Steel demand weakens, and iron ore inventory exerts pressure. Investors who have short positions can continue to hold [2]. - Coal and coke: Coking coal production is high, and downstream replenishment is weak. Coke supply surplus persists, and the 09 contract of coking coal may weaken. Steel mills' price cuts squeeze coking enterprise profits [2]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The rise momentum weakens, demand declines, and supply remains high. The rainy season will affect inventory destocking, and steel prices face pressure [2]. - Glass: There are rumors of production cuts, and production and sales have improved, but fundamentals lack substantial positives. Real estate adjustment restricts demand recovery [2]. - Soda ash: The transition from peak to off - season lacks driving force to push up prices, and attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery [2]. Financial Market - Stock indexes: Performance is mixed, and sector capital flows vary. Financial data of state - owned enterprises and local government bond issuance have certain characteristics. Stock index futures sentiment improves, and long positions can be held [2][4]. - Bonds: Market interest rates are consolidating, and bond prices fluctuate in a narrow range. Long positions in bonds can be held with a light position [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and multiple factors affect prices. Although the driving logic has not reversed, policies may cause short - term fluctuations. Prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillation [4]. Light Industry - Pulp: Raw material price decline weakens support, and off - season demand is weak. Price increase notices may boost sentiment, and prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - Logs: Shipment volume increases slightly, supply from New Zealand may decrease, and inventory accumulates. Cost - side negatives weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats and Meal Products - Oils and fats: Malaysian palm oil inventory increases, and the supply of the three major oils and fats is abundant. It is the consumption off - season, and prices are expected to be oscillatory and bearish [6]. - Meal products: US soybean inventory may tighten, but domestic supply is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Slaughter weight increases with regional differences, demand is stable but terminal consumption weakens. Secondary fattening supports prices, and pig prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather, import volume changes, and tire enterprise inventory accumulates. Terminal demand has not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Polyester Products - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: PX follows oil prices, PTA is affected by raw materials, MEG is subject to macro - sentiment, and PR and PF are affected by raw material supply, downstream orders, and production cuts, with prices expected to show a weakening trend [9].

2025年5月28日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 观 x , 507 地缘政治冲突事件、极端天气、外盘原油剧烈波动 提示 SCFIS与期货价格走势 上海集表相指数 EC2510 - EC2512 - EC2602 EC2508 CFISEE 12,000.00 6,100 8000.00 6,000.00 4,000.00 2.600 2,100 2,000.00 1.600 0.00 1,100 (2) 20120 20 11 20 20 20 10 600 200 100 200 200 00 00 110 000 000 000 000 100 000 EC价差 EC星差 -06-12 -06-08 -06-10 -06-02 -06-04 -2506重要 -5508重差 -2510直差 -2512星星 =2602 == -260411 800 4,800 4,300 600 3,800 400 3,300 2,800 200 2,300 1,800 0 1,300 800 -200 300 -200 -400 -700 -600 -1,200 -1,700 -800 6/20 7/20 8/20 10 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 28 日星期三 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-28） | | | | | 铁矿：前期政策与情绪驱动的上涨动力逐步减弱，短期内回归基本面。钢 材现实需求继续走弱，五大钢材整体面临供增需减格局，成材下跌使得对 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 原料采购刚需减少。当前钢厂盈利率水平较高，上期日均铁水产量环比回 | | | | 铁矿石 | 偏空 | 落 1.17 万吨至 243.6 万吨，铁水减量超市场预期，叠加外需出口提前透支， | | | | | | 在全年总需求无增量的基础下，会形成明显的前高后低格局。铁矿港口库 | | | | | | 存水平仍相对偏高，对价格形成一定的压力。本轮贸易冲突缓和带来的反 | | | | | | 弹行情里已经介入空单的投资者，则继续持有。 | | | | | | 煤焦：焦煤产量高位，五一节后下游补库动力不足，523 家样本矿山原煤 | | | | | | 库存刷出历年新高，随着铁水产量下滑以及焦煤供应的持续增加，远月 | | ...

2025年5月27日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 6月线上运价出现松动,盘面承压下行,符合日报预期,已建议冲高止盈,等待回调机会 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 5月26日 | 5月23日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1247.05点，较上期下跌1.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1106.08点，较上期上涨9.02% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1719.79点，较上期上涨18.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）783.58点，较上期上涨4.35% | | 5月23日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1894.63点，较上期上涨4.50% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1586.12点，较上期上涨106.73点 | 5月23日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1317USD/TEU, 较上期上涨14.12% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1107.40点，较上期上涨0.2% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线327 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 50: Rebounding [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Upward [2] - CSI 1000: Upward [2] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Declining [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: Strongly oscillating [4] - Pulp: Oscillating [6] - Logs: Oscillating [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating bearishly [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating bearishly [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating bearishly [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating [6] - No. 2 soybeans: Oscillating [6] - No. 1 soybeans: Oscillating bearishly [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [8] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: On the sidelines [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views of the Report - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment-driven rise in the iron and steel industry is gradually weakening, and it will return to fundamentals in the short term. The real demand for steel products continues to weaken, and the overall pattern of supply increase and demand decrease for the five major steel products persists. The decline in steel prices reduces the rigid demand for raw material procurement. The profitability rate of steel mills is currently high, and the temporary easing of Sino-US relations brings new restocking demand. However, the daily average pig iron output in the previous period decreased by 11,700 tons to 2.436 million tons, exceeding market expectations. The port inventory level of iron ore remains relatively high, exerting pressure on prices. In the long term, domestic demand is weak, and investors who have already entered short positions during the rebound caused by the easing of the trade conflict should continue to hold [2]. - The output of coking coal is at a high level, and the downstream restocking motivation is insufficient after the May Day holiday. The raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines has reached a record high. As pig iron output declines and coking coal supply continues to increase, the far-month 09 contract will continue to weaken. For coke, as coking coal prices fall, the cost of coking enterprises' incoming coal decreases, and most enterprises remain profitable. However, steel mills have initiated a second round of price cuts on coking enterprises today, squeezing coking enterprises' profits. With the arrival of high-temperature weather in various regions, downstream demand weakens, the phenomenon of steel mills controlling production increases, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises rises. The overall inventory of coke has increased month-on-month, and the pattern of oversupply in the coking coal and coke market remains unchanged, generally following the trend of steel products [2]. - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment-driven rise in rebar is gradually weakening. The demand decline is relatively slow in the short term, and steel supply is increasing while demand is decreasing. The total inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the impact of the rainy season will drag down terminal demand, and inventory destocking may slow down or even reverse in mid-June. Steel prices face periodic pressure. The profits of long-process steel mills have been repaired periodically, and the blast furnaces under maintenance have resumed production, keeping the supply at a high level. Domestic demand declines seasonally. Attention should be paid to the rush export demand brought about by the 90-day suspension of the 24% tariff. It is expected that steel prices will remain oscillating at a low level in the short term, waiting for a clear signal of demand decline [2]. - There are rumors in the market that glass manufacturers in Hubei plan to cut production, and production and sales have improved. Recently, some production lines have been restarted after cold repair, and the daily melting volume has fluctuated slightly. The daily output of float glass remained stable last week. The spot price of float glass has declined slightly, and profits have also been squeezed. The production enthusiasm of manufacturers in the Shahe area is relatively high, leading to a significant increase in inventory. Both the national manufacturers' inventory and the Shahe area have seen substantial inventory accumulation. The market sentiment of buying up but not buying down is strong, and downstream traders and processing enterprises are highly cautious. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, and the year-on-year decline in housing completion area is relatively large, making it difficult for glass demand to recover significantly. As the peak season transitions to the off-season, the fundamentals lack the driving force for an upward trend. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand [2]. - For stock index futures and options, on the previous trading day, the CSI 300 index closed down 0.57%, the SSE 50 index closed down 0.46%, the CSI 500 index closed up 0.29%, and the CSI 1000 index closed up 0.65%. Funds flowed into the leisure products and power generation equipment sectors, while flowing out of the pharmaceutical and automobile sectors. The General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Modern Enterprise System with Chinese Characteristics," which proposes to improve the enterprise income distribution system, promote enterprises to establish a reasonable wage growth mechanism, deepen the reform of the wage distribution system of state-owned enterprises, implement the wage total budget cycle system in eligible state-owned enterprises, promote listed companies to carry out medium- and long-term incentives, formulate stable and long-term cash dividend policies, strengthen the fiduciary duties of controlling shareholders to the company, and support listed companies to introduce institutional investors with a shareholding ratio of more than 5% as active shareholders. Moody's has decided to maintain China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" with a negative outlook. The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Finance stated that since the fourth quarter of last year, the Chinese government has implemented a package of macroeconomic control policies, leading to an improvement in economic indicators, stable market expectations and confidence, and enhanced medium- and long-term sustainability of debt. Moody's decision to maintain the stability of China's sovereign credit rating is a positive reflection of China's economic prospects. In the next step, a series of incremental and existing policies will work together and continue to show results, providing solid support for high-quality economic development. China will remain confident and focused on its own affairs regardless of external changes. The Sino-US tariff issue has achieved phased results, the external market has stabilized, market risk aversion has eased, and investors should hold long positions in stock indices [2][4]. - For Treasury bonds, the yield of the 10-year Chinese Treasury bond has decreased by 2 basis points, FR007 has increased by 7 basis points, and SHIBOR3M has remained unchanged. The central bank announced that on May 26, it conducted 382 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate through quantity tender, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, a bid volume of 382 billion yuan, and a winning volume of 382 billion yuan. According to Wind data, 135 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 247 billion yuan. The market interest rate is consolidating, and Treasury bonds are oscillating in a narrow range. Investors should hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - In the context of a high-interest-rate environment and the reconstruction of globalization, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to the central bank's gold purchases, which are the key and reflect the "decentralization" and risk aversion needs. In terms of its monetary attribute, the debt problem has caused cracks in the currency credit of the US dollar, highlighting the de-fiat currency attribute of gold in the process of de-dollarization. In terms of its financial attribute, in the global high-interest-rate environment, the substitution effect of gold as a zero-coupon bond for bonds has weakened, and its sensitivity to the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds has decreased. In terms of its risk aversion attribute, geopolitical risks have marginally weakened, but Trump's tariff policy has intensified global trade tensions, and market risk aversion remains strong, becoming an important factor driving up the gold price in the short term. In terms of its commodity attribute, the demand for physical gold in China has increased significantly, and the central bank has restarted gold purchases since November last year and has been increasing its holdings for six consecutive months. Currently, the logic driving up the gold price has not completely reversed. The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy may be short-term disturbing factors. It is expected that this year's interest rate policy will be more cautious, and the evolution of the tariff policy will dominate the change in market risk aversion. According to the latest US data, the non-farm payrolls data shows that the labor market is relatively strong, with non-farm employment exceeding market expectations and the unemployment rate stable at 4.2%. The latest PCE data shows that inflation has slowed down, with core PCE rising 2.6% year-on-year, in line with market expectations, and PCE rising 2.3% year-on-year, slightly higher than market expectations. The CPI in April rose 2.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and indicating a continuous decline in inflation. However, inflation is expected to rise again under the influence of tariffs. In the short term, the uncertainty in the trade environment has raised concerns about the global economy, geopolitical risks continue to rise, and the risk aversion demand for gold remains strong. Coupled with the weak US dollar index, it supports the rise in the gold price. It is expected that the gold price will remain strongly oscillating. Attention should be paid to this week's PCE data and meeting minutes [4]. - The spot market price of pulp loosened slightly on the previous trading day, with the price of some softwood pulp in the spot market falling by 20 - 50 yuan/ton and that of some hardwood pulp loosening by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. The latest FOB price of softwood pulp has decreased by 55 US dollars to 770 US dollars/ton, and that of hardwood pulp has decreased by 70 US dollars to 560 US dollars/ton. The decline in the cost price weakens the support for pulp prices. The profitability of the papermaking industry is at a low level, paper mills' inventories continue to accumulate, and they are not willing to accept high-priced pulp, purchasing raw materials only based on rigid demand. The demand has entered the off-season, which is negative for pulp prices. Paper mills have successively issued price increase notices, which is beneficial for boosting industry sentiment. It is expected that pulp prices will oscillate [6]. - The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports last week was 62,100 cubic meters, an increase of 700 cubic meters month-on-month. The downstream has entered the off-season, and it is expected to be difficult to return to the level of 70,000 cubic meters. The volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China in March was 1.659 million cubic meters, a 32% increase from the previous month. New Zealand has started to cut production, and the log shipment volume has decreased. It is expected that the domestic arrival volume will start to decrease. The expected arrival volume last week was 421,000 cubic meters, a 52% increase month-on-month. As of last week, the log port inventory was 3.43 million cubic meters, a 20,000-cubic-meter increase month-on-month. The spot market price has been relatively stable. The spot market price in Shandong has remained stable at 750 yuan/cubic meter, a 10-yuan decrease from last week, and that in Jiangsu has remained stable at 770 yuan/cubic meter, also a 10-yuan decrease from last week. The latest CFR quotation has decreased by 4 US dollars to 110 US dollars/cubic meter, and it is expected that the June quotation will remain the same. The negative impact on the cost side may weaken. In the short term, the spot market price is relatively stable, demand has improved month-on-month, the arrival volume in the past two weeks has been lower than the average level, and the supply pressure has relatively decreased. The fundamentals of the log market have marginally improved. It is expected that log prices will oscillate [6]. - The inventory of Malaysian palm oil jumped to a six-month high of 1.87 million metric tons in April due to a surge in production and a decline in domestic consumption, a 19.4% month-on-month increase. Indonesia has raised the export tax on palm oil, while Malaysia has lowered the export tax on crude palm oil in June. The price of Indonesian palm oil has lost its competitive edge compared to Malaysia, which is conducive to stimulating the export potential of Malaysian palm oil. However, Malaysian palm oil is in the seasonal production increase cycle, and the production increase is higher than the export increase, so inventory may continue to accumulate. The US biofuel policy still has great uncertainty. South American soybeans have achieved a record high yield, and the domestic arrival volume of soybeans has increased significantly. As the overall operating rate of oil mills has increased, the inventory of soybean oil has started to rise. Although the import profit of palm oil is still negative, palm oil purchases have increased, further replenishing domestic inventory. The supply of the three major oils is abundant. Currently, it is the traditional off-season for oil consumption, and the pre-Dragon Boat Festival stocking is about to end. It is expected that oil prices will oscillate bearishly. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - The new crop inventory of US soybeans may become even tighter, leaving less room for error during the critical summer growing season for US soybeans, whose sown area is already expected to decrease. Rainfall in the US Midwest has slowed down spring sowing, and there are concerns about soybean production cuts in Argentina due to heavy rain. The increase in the premium of Brazilian soybeans has driven up the cost of imported soybeans. The domestic arrival volume of soybeans in May has surged to about 11 million tons, and customs clearance has accelerated recently. With the large arrival of imported soybeans, the soybean supply situation has become more relaxed, and the overall operating rate of oil mills has recovered to over 50%. The inventory of soybean meal has increased, and the trading sentiment has improved after the continuous decline in the market. The spot trading volume has increased, and prices have stopped falling and stabilized, alleviating the domestic supply pressure. It is expected that soybean meal prices will oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in North America, the logistics delays in Brazil, and the soybean arrival situation [6]. - The Sino-US trade relations have eased, the USDA report is moderately positive, the export of new Brazilian soybeans has accelerated, and there are concerns about soybean production cuts in Argentina due to heavy rain. According to the shipping and berthing forecasts of major soybean-producing countries, the domestic soybean arrival volume is expected to be relatively large from May to June, exceeding 11 million tons each month. Soybean customs clearance has accelerated, and the soybean inventory has continued to rise. The overall operating rate of oil mills has recovered to over 50%, and the domestic soybean spot price has remained stable. It is expected that the price of No. 2 soybeans will oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean-producing areas and the soybean arrival situation [6]. - In terms of supply, the latest data shows that the average slaughter weight of live pigs across the country shows a slight upward trend, with an average trading weight of 126.5 kilograms, a 0.07% month-on-month increase. Regionally, the average trading weight in different provinces varies. Due to the adjustment of the procurement strategy of some local slaughter enterprises, which have reduced the purchase of large-weight pigs, and the decline in the inventory of large pigs after the previous concentrated slaughter, the average trading weight in some areas has decreased. On the other hand, most provinces' breeding farms still maintain the strategy of holding back pigs for weight gain, artificially extending the breeding cycle and driving up the slaughter weight. Slaughter enterprises' demand for standard-weight pigs of 125 - 140 kilograms remains stable, driving up the overall average purchase weight. In terms of demand, the average operating rate of key slaughter enterprises is 34.76%, a 0.18-percentage-point increase from last week. After the festival, the terminal consumption demand has declined seasonally, the downstream procurement and stocking enthusiasm has weakened, and there is no significant boost factor on the consumption side. It is expected that the operating rate of slaughter enterprises will remain oscillating or show a slight decline. After the festival, the consumption demand decreases cyclically, the procurement volume of terminal catering and households has decreased, and the sales of pork products have slowed down. Although it is the traditional off-season for consumption and the slaughter demand remains low, the strong demand for secondary fattening supports prices. It is expected that the live pig market will show a pattern of tight supply in May. The self-breeding and self-raising cost of leading enterprises is supported at around 13,000 yuan per head. There is no obvious upward driving force in the market, and it is expected that pig prices will remain oscillating [8]. - On the supply side, the weather disturbances in domestic and foreign rubber-producing areas have intensified, and rubber supply is under short-term pressure. Recently, there has been frequent rainfall in the main natural rubber-producing areas at home and abroad, significantly interfering with rubber tapping operations. The rainfall in the Southeast Asian producing areas is expected to increase in the coming week, and heavy rain is expected in Myanmar and the western part of Thailand (north of the equator), significantly restricting rubber tapping activities. The weather conditions in the producing areas south of the equator are relatively stable, with rainfall in the medium to low range, having limited impact on rubber tapping. As a result, the supply of rubber raw materials has tightened, and the purchase

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The extension of US - EU tariffs to July has led to high - level oscillations in the overall market, in line with the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and wait for correction opportunities [1]. - Tariffs have become a means in trade negotiations, adding significant uncertainties to future shipping trends. While the easing of the China - US trade war may boost the digestion of US - bound shipping capacity in 90 days, price wars among alliances cannot be avoided. Attention should be paid to the US - bound shipping capacity allocation within 90 days and the feedback of terminal demand under the easing of tariff policies [3]. - In the short - term, due to the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate. It is recommended to focus on medium - to - long - term contracts if participating. Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large, so a positive arbitrage structure is adopted for now. In the long - term, it is recommended to take profits on rallies, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then try to go long on freight rate rebounds [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Indexes - **May 12th**: The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1265.30 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1446.36 points, down 0.6% from the previous period [2]. - **May 23rd**: The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1106.08 points, up 9.02% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 783.58 points, up 4.35% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1894.63 points, up 4.50% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1586.12 points, up 106.73 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1317 USD/TEU, up 14.12% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 3275 USD/FEU, up 5.95% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1107.40 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1392.61 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 908.14 points, up 3.6% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - **Eurozone**: In May, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.4, a 33 - month high; in April, the preliminary service PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and the comprehensive PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [2]. - **China**: In March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [2]. - **US**: In April, the preliminary S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final value 50.2); the preliminary service PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final value 54.4); the preliminary comprehensive PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final value 53.5) [3]. 3.3 Futures Market - On May 23rd, the main contract 2508 closed at 2224.9, up 2.73%. The trading volume was 74,200 lots, and the open interest was 49,200 lots, with a reduction of 2478 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Market Analysis - The freight rates online in early June are relatively firm, which supports the market to some extent. However, due to the stable cargo volume in the spot market, the market may decline after the peak US - bound shipping season, suppressing the market. Under the game between long and short positions, the overall market fluctuates significantly. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: Due to the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate. If participating in each contract, it is recommended to focus on medium - to - long - term contracts [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. For now, a positive arbitrage structure is adopted [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for each contract, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then try to go long on freight rate rebounds [4]. 3.6 Contract Rules - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 16%. - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 26%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short-term long allocation, medium to long-term bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways to weak [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Sideways [2] - Glass: Sideways [2] - Soda ash: Sideways [2] - Shanghai 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Sideways [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Sideways [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Sideways [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Decline [3] - Gold: High-level sideways [3] - Silver: Bullish sideways [3] - Pulp: Sideways [5] - Logs: Sideways [5] - Soybean oil: Sideways [5] - Palm oil: Sideways [5] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways [5] - Soybean meal: Rebound [5] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways [5] - Live pigs: Sideways [7] - Rubber: Sideways [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Wait-and-see [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Viewpoints - The upward momentum driven by policies and sentiment in the early stage is gradually weakening, and various industries are mainly influenced by fundamentals, supply and demand, and external factors [2][3][5][7][8] - The market is affected by factors such as Sino-US relations, tariff policies, interest rate policies, and seasonal factors, with significant uncertainties [2][3][5][7][8] Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Short-term, it returns to fundamentals, with high valuation in the black sector and mainly long allocation. Steel mill profitability is high, and there is new restocking demand. However, iron ore port inventory is relatively high, and iron water production has decreased. Medium to long-term, it is bearish due to weak domestic demand [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal are loose, and the profit of coking enterprises has improved. Steel mill iron water production has slightly decreased, and coke supply has increased, with an overall oversupply situation following the trend of finished products [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The upward momentum driven by policies and sentiment is weakening. Demand is falling, and supply is increasing. The total inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the impact of the rainy season may slow down or reverse the destocking. Steel prices are under phased pressure [2] - **Glass**: There are rumors of production cuts by Hubei glass manufacturers, and production and sales have improved. However, production lines have resumed operation, and inventory has increased significantly. In the long term, demand is difficult to recover significantly due to the adjustment of the real estate industry [2] - **Soda ash**: Sideways, mainly affected by the overall situation of the glass industry [2] Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indexes. The central bank and the foreign exchange bureau plan to improve the management of overseas direct listing funds of domestic enterprises. The issuance of the first 50-year special treasury bond has been completed, and the bond market is mainly affected by supply pressure and capital conditions [2][3] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year treasury bond is flat, and the market interest rate is consolidating. The treasury bond market is in a narrow sideways range, and long positions can be held lightly [3] - **Precious metals**: - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The current upward logic remains unchanged, and it is mainly affected by the Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy. It is expected to maintain a high-level sideways trend [3] - **Silver**: Bullish sideways, affected by factors such as inflation and market sentiment [3] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is stable, but the cost price has decreased, and the demand is in the off-season. The paper mill inventory is accumulating, and it is expected to be sideways [5] - **Logs**: The downstream is in the seasonal off-season, and the demand is average. The supply pressure is relatively weak, and it is expected to be in a bottom sideways pattern [5] Oil and Fat Industry - **Oils and fats**: The inventory of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly, and the supply of the three major oils is abundant. It is currently in the traditional consumption off-season, but there is pre-festival stocking demand. It is expected to be sideways [5] - **Meal products**: The inventory of US soybeans may tighten further, and the cost of imported soybeans has increased. The domestic soybean supply has become loose, and the inventory of soybean meal has increased. It is expected to rebound in the short term [5] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average slaughter weight has increased slightly, and the demand of slaughter enterprises is stable. The post-festival consumption demand has decreased seasonally, but the strong demand for secondary fattening supports the price. It is expected to be sideways [7] - **Rubber**: The supply is temporarily under pressure due to weather disturbances in domestic and foreign producing areas, and the raw material supply is tight. The tire enterprise operating rate has increased, but the terminal demand has not improved substantially. It is expected to be sideways [7] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The US traditional peak season supports oil prices, and PX inventory has been continuously reduced, with the PXN spread repaired. It is expected to fluctuate with oil prices [8] - **PTA**: The US traditional peak season supports oil prices, and PTA inventory is being reduced. It is mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [8] - **MEG**: The domestic production load has decreased, and the port is expected to destock. The raw material end is weak, and the market fluctuates widely due to macro sentiment [8] - **PR**: There is some cost support, but downstream follow-up is insufficient. The polyester bottle chip market may adjust slightly stronger [8] - **PF**: Downstream orders are insufficient, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. However, there is still some cost support, and the polyester staple fiber market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - MSK slightly increased the spot rate at the beginning of June, and the futures market opened low and closed high, meeting the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take profits when the price rises and wait for a callback opportunity [1]. - There are differences in the future freight rate trends and the implementation of price increases, resulting in intense long - short competition in the futures market. The slight increase in MSK's price at the beginning of June drove the market to rise slightly [3]. - The tariff has become a means of trade negotiation, adding significant uncertainties to future shipping trends. Although the easing of the Sino - US trade war may boost the digestion of US - bound shipping capacity, price wars among shipping alliances cannot be avoided [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Freight Rate Indexes - On May 12, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1265.30 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1446.36 points, down 0.6% from the previous period. On May 16, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1479.39 points, down 134.22 points from the previous period, with the European route price at 1154 USD/TEU, down 0.60%, and the US - West route at 3091 USD/FEU, up 31.70% [2]. - On May 16, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1014.55 points, up 6.53% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 750.91 points, down 0.78% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1813.08 points, up 23.18% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1104.88 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1430.35 points, down 1.0%; the CCFI for the US - West route was 876.92 points, up 2.2% [2]. 3.2 PMI Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in May was 49.4, the highest in 33 months; the preliminary value of the service PMI in April was 49.7 (expected 50.5). The preliminary value of the Eurozone's composite PMI in April was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in April was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [2]. - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in April was 50.7 (expected 49.1, final value in March 50.2); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, final value in March 54.4); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, final value in March 53.5) [3]. 3.3 Futures Market - On May 22, the main contract 2508 closed at 2206.0, down 0.95%, with a trading volume of 91,300 lots and an open interest of 51,600 lots, a decrease of 1405 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies in the short term, the operation is difficult. If participating in each contract, it is recommended to focus on the medium - to - long - term [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where the near - term freight rate is stronger than the long - term, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. Currently, it is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the price of each contract rises, and then wait for the price to stabilize after a callback and continue to try to go long on the freight rate rebound [4]. 3.5 Other Information - The US is negotiating with Hamas through intermediaries in Doha to promote a cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel [5]. - The European Commission plans to levy a 2 - euro tax on small packages entering the EU, most of which come from China [5]. - Geopolitical conflicts, extreme weather, and sharp fluctuations in the external crude oil market are factors affecting the shipping market [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short-term long allocation, medium and long-term short allocation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury Bond: Declining [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong oscillation [4] - Pulp: Oscillating [5] - Logs: Bottom oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Oscillating [5] - Palm oil: Oscillating [5] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating [5] - Soybean meal: Rebounding [5] - Rapeseed meal: Rebounding [5] - Soybean No. 2: Rebounding [5] - Soybean No. 1: Rebounding [5] - Live pigs: Oscillating [8] - Rubber: Strong oscillation [8] - PX: On the sidelines [8] - PTA: On the sidelines [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Viewpoints - The previous upward momentum driven by policies and sentiment in the iron ore, rolled steel, and rebar markets is gradually weakening, and they will return to fundamentals in the short term. The coal and coke market follows the trend of finished products, and the glass market lacks upward momentum in the off-season [2]. - The stock index market shows different trends, and the bond market is in a narrow oscillation. The gold market is affected by factors such as interest rate and tariff policies, and the silver market is expected to oscillate strongly [2][4]. - The pulp and log markets are in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the oil and fat market is expected to oscillate. The meal market may rebound, and the agricultural product market shows different trends [5][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The short-term upward momentum weakens, and it returns to fundamentals. It has a relatively high valuation in the black sector and is mainly allocated long. The daily pig iron output decreases, the port inventory is relatively high, and it should be treated with a short bias in the medium and long term [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal are loose, the profit of coking enterprises improves, the pig iron output of steel mills decreases slightly, and the supply of coke increases. The overall market follows the trend of finished products [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The short-term demand decline is slow, the supply increases and the demand decreases, the inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the Meiyu season may affect the terminal demand. The steel price faces phased pressure [2]. - **Glass**: The daily melting volume fluctuates slightly, the spot price drops slightly, the profit is squeezed, the inventory increases significantly, and the demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long term [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: The performance of different stock index futures is different. The capital inflows into the banking and land transportation sectors, and the capital outflows from the fine chemical and chemical fiber sectors. The stock index long positions can be held [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond rises, the market interest rate consolidates, and the Treasury bond trend is in a narrow oscillation. The Treasury bond long positions can be held lightly [4]. - **Gold and silver**: The gold pricing mechanism is changing, and the current upward logic has not completely reversed. The silver market is expected to oscillate strongly [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price drops slightly, the cost support weakens, the papermaking industry profit is low, the demand is in the off-season, and the pulp price is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Logs**: The downstream demand is in the off-season, the supply pressure is relatively weak, the inventory is decreasing, and the log price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Oil and fat**: The supply of the three major oils is abundant, the current is the traditional consumption off-season, but the spot consumption improves before the Dragon Boat Festival. The oil and fat market is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Meal**: The inventory of US soybeans may be further tightened, the planting progress in some areas of the US Midwest is slow, and the meal market may rebound [5]. Agricultural Products Industry - **Live pigs**: The overall supply is tight, the demand is in the off-season, the secondary fattening demand supports the price, and the pig price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Rubber**: The supply is relatively stable, the cost support is significant, the demand is gradually recovering, the inventory accumulation speed slows down, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly [8]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: The domestic PX load oscillates and declines, the demand side PTA load rebounds, and the PX price is expected to fluctuate with the oil price [8]. - **PTA**: The PXN spread is around $260/ton, the spot TA processing margin is around 392 yuan/ton, the TA load drops to around 77%, and the PTA supply and demand are in a state of destocking [9]. - **MEG**: The domestic MEG load drops to around 58.25%, the port inventory decreases, the raw material end is weak, and the MEG market fluctuates widely [9]. - **PR**: The cost support is weak, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the polyester bottle chip price may be adjusted weakly [9]. - **PF**: The downstream orders are insufficient, the cost increase may not continue, and the polyester staple fiber market is expected to be sorted weakly [9].

2025年5月22日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 欧盟加征小包裹关税, MSK涨价不及预期,盘面宽幅震荡,符合日报预期,已建议冲高止盈,等待回调机会 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 5月12日 | 5月16日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1265.30点，较上期下跌2.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1014.55点，较上期上涨6.53% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1446.36点，较上期下跌0.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 750.91点，较上期下跌0.78% | | 5月16日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1813.08点，较上期上涨23.18% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1479.39点，较上期下跌134.22点 | 5月16日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1154USD/TEU, 较上期下跌0.60% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1104.88点，较上期下跌0.1% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数 ...