Li Ning Company Limited (02331) H2 2024 Earnings Call March 27, 2025 09:00 PM ET Speaker0Analyst, investors, good morning. Welcome to Leaning Company Limited '20 twenty four annual results announcement. Let me introduce to you the management on stage. We are executive director and joint CEO, mister Leaning. Executive director and co or joint CEO, mister Tianwei, group vice president and CFO, mister Zhang Zhongsheng.In today's presentation, mister Zhao will first walk you through the 2024 full year financial ...

截至2024年12月31日止第四季度，李宁销售点(不包括李宁YOUNG)于整个平台的零售流水按年取得高 单位数增长。就渠道而言，线下渠道(包括零售及批发)取得中单位数增长，其中零售(直接经营)渠道取 得低单位数下降，批发(特许经销商)渠道取得中单位数增长;电子商务虚拟店铺业务取得10%-20%中段增 长。 截至2024年12月31日，于中国，李宁YOUNG销售点数量共计1468个，较上一季末净增加9个，本年迄 今净增加40个。 李宁(02331)发布截至2024年12月31日止年度的全年业绩，收入286.76亿元(人民币，下同)，同比增加 3.9%;毛利141.56亿元，同比增加6.02%;股东应占溢利30.13亿元;每股基本收益116.98分;拟派发末期股息 每股20.73分。 公告称，本年，得益于线上渠道的深度开发、规模效应显现及成本控制的优化，本年电商业务收入增长 10.3%;公司通过加强与经销商的合作，优化产品供应，提供更具竞争力的产品组合，提升与经销商之间 的协同效率，实现库存优化及订单快速响应;带来经销收入同比增长2.6%;及受整体消费环境及市场竞争 加剧影响，公司对零售渠道进行了优化调整，零售收 ...

Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 3.9% to RMB 28.68 billion, with a gross margin improvement of 1 percentage point to 49.4%[5] - Net profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 3.01 billion, with a net profit margin of 10.5%[5] - Operating cash inflow rose by 12.4% to RMB 5.27 billion, maintaining a healthy level of working capital at 7.4% of revenue[5] - The company reported a decrease in net profit from RMB 3.19 billion in 2023 to RMB 3.01 billion in 2024[9] - Basic earnings per share decreased to RMB 116.98 from RMB 123.21 year-on-year[8] - The profit attributable to equity holders for 2024 is RMB 3,012,918,000, a decrease of 5.4% from RMB 3,186,910,000 in 2023[38] - The basic earnings per share for 2024 is RMB 116.98, down from RMB 123.21 in 2023, reflecting a decline of 3.5%[38] - The diluted earnings per share for 2024 is RMB 116.52, compared to RMB 122.66 in 2023, indicating a decrease of 5.0%[40] - The total proposed dividend for 2024 is RMB 1,506,459,000, which represents approximately 50% of the profit attributable to equity holders, up from 45% in 2023[41] - The interim dividend declared for 2024 is RMB 37.75 per share, an increase from RMB 36.20 per share in 2023[45] - The proposed final dividend for 2024 is RMB 20.73 per share, compared to RMB 18.54 per share in 2023, marking an increase of 6.4%[45] Revenue Breakdown - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, reached RMB 28.68 billion, an increase of 3.91% from RMB 27.60 billion in 2023[23] - Revenue from footwear sales amounted to RMB 14.30 billion, up from RMB 13.39 billion in the previous year, while apparel sales decreased to RMB 12.05 billion from RMB 12.41 billion[23] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue from equipment and accessories, rising to RMB 2.33 billion from RMB 1.80 billion, reflecting a growth of 29.3%[23] - E-commerce revenue grew by 10.3% due to enhanced online channel development and cost control[54] - Retail revenue saw a slight decline of 0.3%, but profitability in retail stores improved through optimized discount strategies[54] - Footwear sales accounted for 49.9% of total revenue in 2024, up from 48.5% in 2023, with a revenue increase of 6.8%[56] - E-commerce sales grew to 29.0% of total revenue in 2024, compared to 27.3% in 2023, marking a 1.7% increase[56] Asset and Liability Management - Total assets increased to RMB 35.71 billion from RMB 34.21 billion, while total liabilities decreased to RMB 9.60 billion from RMB 9.80 billion[7] - Non-current assets decreased to RMB 15.18 billion from RMB 20.55 billion, while current assets increased to RMB 20.53 billion from RMB 13.65 billion[6] - The company maintained a cash conversion cycle of 35 days, indicating efficient inventory management[5] - Accounts receivable decreased from RMB 1,243,747,000 in 2023 to RMB 1,046,249,000 in 2024, a reduction of approximately 15.9%[28] - Trade payables decreased from RMB 1,789,796,000 in 2023 to RMB 1,625,132,000 in 2024, a decline of approximately 9.2%[31] - The debt-to-equity ratio improved to 36.8% from 40.2%, reflecting better financial leverage management[53] Investment and Acquisitions - The company completed the acquisition of Vansittart Investment Limited for a total consideration of HKD 22.21 billion (approximately RMB 20.13 billion), with an initial payment of HKD 2.21 billion (approximately RMB 2.00 billion) made in December 2023 and the remaining HKD 20.00 billion (approximately RMB 18.13 billion) paid in January 2024[12] - The acquired assets primarily consist of investment properties valued at RMB 16.99 billion and property, plant, and equipment valued at RMB 3.22 billion, indicating a significant concentration of value in a single identifiable asset[13] - The investment cost of the acquired property is RMB 2,021,450,000, with a carrying value after depreciation and impairment of RMB 1,939,060,000 as of December 31, 2024, representing about 5.4% of the company's total assets[76] Operational Efficiency - The company has no single external customer contributing more than 10% of total revenue, indicating a diversified customer base[24] - The company is currently evaluating the impact of new accounting standards on its consolidated financial performance, which may affect reporting and disclosures in the future[20] - The company is actively seeking legal advice regarding a claim related to a loan, asserting that it has no obligation to repay the claimed amount[44] - The company plans to continue optimizing its asset structure to mitigate risks associated with market volatility[67] - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency by streamlining business processes and improving resource allocation, focusing on a "single brand, multiple categories, and multiple channels" strategy[127] Research and Development - Research and product development expenses rose from RMB 618,183,000 in 2023 to RMB 675,955,000 in 2024, an increase of approximately 9.3%[32] - The company has established a strong lineup of six unique innovative technologies, including "Carbon Core," "Fast Curve System," and "Super Bounce," covering various sports categories[86] - The launch of the new midsole technology "Super Bounce" showcases the company's dual innovation capabilities in materials and processes, achieving a performance peak with supercritical foaming materials[87] - The company introduced six new products featuring "Super Bounce" technology, including basketball and running shoes, reflecting a deep understanding of athlete and consumer needs[88] Marketing and Brand Strategy - The company launched the "In My Name" campaign in 2024, enhancing brand competitiveness and user engagement[84] - The company emphasizes a brand spirit of "Dare to Imagine, Create Splendor, Anything is Possible," targeting the younger generation through diverse marketing activities[90] - The "反伍" series achieved significant results in cultural expression and market expansion, with the online marketing campaign "Finding the Angry Tear" garnering 440 million views on Douyin, enhancing brand visibility[95] - The company signed a sponsorship deal for the "2024-2026 Li Ning Hong Kong Open Badminton Championships," enhancing product exposure and market attention through event promotion[101] Employee and Organizational Development - As of December 31, 2024, the company employed 5,022 individuals, an increase from 4,845 employees on December 31, 2023[123] - The company emphasizes the importance of employee satisfaction and engagement through various initiatives and feedback mechanisms[123] - The company will continue to optimize its talent structure and management levels to foster a high-efficiency team and promote organizational collaboration[127]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent developments at Xtep, including the appointment of the founder's daughters as key executives and the company's financial performance in 2024, highlighting its growth strategy and competitive positioning against other brands like Anta and Li Ning [2][5][14]. Financial Performance - Xtep International reported a total revenue of 13.577 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [2]. - The company's operating profit grew by 9.3% to 1.966 billion yuan, achieving a historical high [2]. - The e-commerce sector saw a robust growth of 20%, contributing over 30% to the main brand's total revenue [2]. Leadership Changes - The founder's elder daughter, Ding Lizhi, has been appointed as the Chief Financial Officer, while the younger daughter, Ding Jiamin, has gained prominence as a social media influencer and brand manager [3][5][11]. - Ding Jiamin has been actively involved in the e-commerce segment, leading to significant online sales growth, with retail sales on platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu increasing by over 80% year-on-year [13][19]. Strategic Positioning - Xtep aims to establish itself as "China's number one running brand," following a similar path to Anta's multi-brand internationalization strategy [5][14]. - The company has adopted a "buy-and-build" strategy, acquiring brands such as Saucony, which has become a significant revenue contributor, surpassing 1 billion yuan in income [18][19]. - Xtep's market position is currently third among domestic sports brands, with a market capitalization of 14.622 billion yuan, trailing behind Anta and Li Ning [14][19]. Competitive Landscape - The article highlights the competitive dynamics within the sportswear industry, noting that Xtep's growth strategy closely mirrors that of Anta, particularly in terms of sponsorship and brand acquisitions [16][18]. - Xtep's recent acquisitions, including the divestment of underperforming brands, reflect a strategic shift to focus on more profitable segments [9][18]. - The company faces competition from other brands like 361°, which has also reported significant growth and is expanding its market presence [19][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning (2331 HK) with a target price of HK$19.30, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current price of HK$16.68 [1][3][5]. Core Views - The report forecasts a revenue growth of 2.2% and a decline in net profit of 3.3% for 2024, with expected revenues of RMB 28.2 billion and net profits of RMB 3.08 billion [2][5]. - The company is entering a stable development phase, with projected revenue growth of 3.9% in 2025, reaching RMB 29.33 billion, and a net profit increase of 6.4% to RMB 3.28 billion [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for Li Ning are as follows: - 2024E Revenue: RMB 28,217 million, a 2.2% increase YoY - 2024E Net Profit: RMB 3,083 million, a 3.3% decrease YoY - 2025E Revenue: RMB 29,326 million, a 3.9% increase YoY - 2025E Net Profit: RMB 3,281 million, a 6.4% increase YoY [4][6][7]. - The report anticipates a slight decline in gross margin in 2H24, with an overall gross margin of 49.4% for 2024, reflecting a 1.0 percentage point increase YoY [1][2]. Valuation - The report maintains the earnings forecast and target price, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 14 times for 2025 [3][5]. - The estimated P/E ratios for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2024E P/E: 13.5 - 2025E P/E: 12.1 - 2026E P/E: 11.4 [4][7].

Core Viewpoint - The best investment opportunities in stocks often arise during periods of significant uncertainty, where the perceived risk is high but the actual risk may be lower than expected [1]. Case Study 1: NetEase - In 2001, NetEase's stock price fell from 15 to 1 due to market panic and a lawsuit, despite having cash reserves of 5.6 billion, which was twice its market value of 3 billion [2][3]. - Investor Duan Yongping saw four angles of opportunity: cash reserves, talent acquisition, potential in the gaming industry, and the extreme drop in stock price [4]. - The investment was characterized by a low downside risk and high upside potential, leading to a significant profit when the company turned around [5]. Case Study 2: Kweichow Moutai - From 1998 to 2003, Moutai's stock price fell significantly due to industry-wide issues, with market sentiment predicting a decline in demand for baijiu [6]. - Moutai's production was limited, and even if the overall industry declined, it could still maintain sales due to its premium positioning [7]. - The investment was seen as having limited downside risk and unlimited upside potential, resulting in a substantial increase in profits and market value over the following years [8]. Case Study 3: Great Wall Motors - In 2008, Great Wall Motors faced losses and market skepticism as it shifted focus to SUVs, a segment that was only 5% of the market at the time [10]. - The strategic pivot was based on the belief that SUVs would become a significant market segment, similar to trends seen in the U.S. [11]. - The investment was characterized by high potential returns, leading to a dramatic increase in profits and market capitalization in subsequent years [12]. Case Study 4: Li Ning - In 2015, Li Ning returned to a struggling company facing significant losses and stock price declines [13][14]. - The brand's strength and the cyclical nature of the apparel industry provided a foundation for potential recovery [15][16]. - The investment proved successful, with significant profit growth and market value increase over six years [17]. Case Study 5: Brilliance China Automotive - Brilliance's stock price fell over 90% from 2017 to 2022 due to market concerns about the automotive industry and its financial health [18]. - Despite the challenges, the company held a significant stake in BMW China and had substantial cash reserves, presenting a unique investment opportunity [19][20]. - The investment was characterized by limited downside risk and significant upside potential, resulting in a strong recovery in stock price [21]. Case Study 6: Xiaomi Group - In 2021, Xiaomi announced its entry into the automotive sector, leading to skepticism and a sharp decline in stock price [21][22]. - However, Xiaomi's advantages included a strong IoT platform and a capable leadership team, suggesting potential for future growth [23][24]. - The investment was viewed as having a high probability of success at a low price point, indicating significant upside potential [25]. Case Study 7: China Feihe - China Feihe's stock price fell significantly due to declining birth rates and market pessimism about the infant formula industry [25][26]. - The company maintained strong revenue and cash flow, with a solid market position and potential for growth in both domestic and international markets [27][28]. - The investment was characterized by limited downside risk and substantial upside potential, making it an attractive opportunity [29][30][31][32][33][34].

Market Overview - In February, the A-share market saw the CSI 300 index rise by 1.9%, while the textile and apparel sector increased by 1.3%[13] - The Hong Kong market's Hang Seng Index rose by 3.2%, with the textile and apparel sector index up by 2.9%[13] - The US market experienced a decline, with the S&P 500 index down by 1.4% and the consumer discretionary sector down by 9.4%[13] Brand Performance - In January, outdoor and women's apparel sales on Tmall, JD, and Douyin platforms saw significant growth, with respective year-on-year increases of 56% and 45%[19] - Notable brands such as KOLONSPORT and Bi Yin Le Fen achieved year-on-year sales growth of 81% and 101% respectively[24] - Major brands like Nike and Adidas reported year-on-year sales growth of 21% and 34% respectively on these platforms[24] Manufacturing Insights - Vietnam's textile and footwear exports grew by 3.4% and 2.7% year-on-year in January, despite high base effects[2] - Key Taiwanese manufacturers like Yu Yuan and Zhi Qiang reported over 20% growth in January, with Yu Yuan achieving record revenue for the month[2] - Nanshan Zhishang's stock surged by 81.5% due to its involvement in robotic tendon materials, indicating strong future demand[16] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued Hong Kong stocks and brands with new growth potential, such as All Cotton Era and Hai Lan Home[3] - For textile manufacturing, companies like Shenzhou International and Huali Group are highlighted for their strong growth prospects and market share potential[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include macroeconomic weakness, international political and economic uncertainties, and significant fluctuations in exchange rates and raw material prices[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile and apparel industry [5] Core Insights - The high-end outdoor sports market remains vibrant both domestically and internationally, with a notable shift in China's consumer market towards a more competitive landscape where strong brands outperform [4][25] - The report highlights the competitive advantages and moats of leading brands, recommending investments in Anta Sports (02020, Buy), Li Ning (02331, Buy), and Xtep International (01368, Buy), while suggesting to pay attention to Biyinlefen (002832, Buy) and Baoxini (002154, Buy) [4][25] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Amer Sports reported a revenue of $5.183 billion for 2024, an 18% year-on-year increase, exceeding the guidance of 16-17% [7][8] - The adjusted operating profit margin for 2024 was 11.1%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, also above the guidance of 10.5-11% [7][8] - In Q4 2024, revenue reached $1.636 billion, a 23% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 56.1%, up 3.7 percentage points [9][19] Segment Performance - Functional apparel drove overall revenue growth in Q4 2024, with revenue of $745 million, a 33% increase year-on-year [12][14] - Outdoor apparel revenue was $594 million, up 13% year-on-year, primarily driven by Salomon brand [12][14] - Revenue from ball sports and racquet sports reached $296 million, a 22% increase year-on-year [13][14] Regional Insights - The Greater China region remains a key growth engine, with Q4 revenue increasing by 54% year-on-year, followed by the Asia-Pacific region at 52% [16][19] - The Americas and EMEA regions saw revenue growth of 15% and 8% respectively [16][19] Future Guidance - For 2025, Amer Sports projects a revenue growth rate of 13-15%, with specific guidance for functional apparel at 20%, outdoor apparel in the low double digits, and ball sports in the low to mid double digits [21][22] - The company anticipates an operating profit margin of 11.5%-12% for 2025, leaning towards the lower end of the range due to macro uncertainties [21][22] Store Expansion Plans - Amer Sports plans to open 200 stores for the Arc'teryx brand in North America, 75-100 in Europe, 75-100 in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China), and 150-200 in China by 2025 [24][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning (2331 HK) with a target price of HK$19.30, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current price of HK$16.68 [1][4][5] Core Views - The report projects a revenue growth of 2.2% and a decline in net profit of 3.3% for 2024, with expected revenues of RMB 28.2 billion and net profits of RMB 3.08 billion [2][5] - The company is entering a stable development phase, with a forecasted revenue increase of 3.9% to RMB 29.33 billion and a net profit increase of 6.4% to RMB 3.28 billion for 2025 [2][3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2024, revenue is expected to grow by 2.2% to RMB 28.2 billion, while net profit is projected to decline by 3.3% to RMB 3.08 billion [2][5] - For 2025, revenue is forecasted to increase by 3.9% to RMB 29.33 billion, and net profit is expected to rise by 6.4% to RMB 3.28 billion [2][3] Financial Data Summary - The financial data for Li Ning shows a revenue of RMB 27.6 billion for 2023, with projections of RMB 28.2 billion for 2024 and RMB 29.3 billion for 2025 [4][6] - The net profit for 2023 is recorded at RMB 3.19 billion, with expectations of RMB 3.08 billion for 2024 and RMB 3.28 billion for 2025 [4][6] Valuation and Earnings - The report maintains the earnings forecast and target price, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 14 times for 2025 [3][5] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is RMB 1.19, for 2025 is RMB 1.27, and for 2026 is RMB 1.34 [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5]. Core Views - The company has become the official sportswear partner for the Chinese Olympic Committee and the Chinese sports delegation for the 2025-2028 period, which is expected to enhance its brand image and marketing efforts [2][4]. - In the fourth quarter, the company's e-commerce sales growth accelerated, with a reported increase of 26% compared to the previous quarter [3][7]. - The company launched a new midsole technology called "超䨻" in November, introducing six new basketball and running shoe models featuring this innovation [11][12]. - Despite short-term pressures on profitability due to increased marketing expenses related to the Olympic partnership, the company maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for its product competitiveness and growth potential in the mid to long term [3][16]. Summary by Sections Company Partnership - On January 15, 2025, the company was announced as the official sportswear partner for the Chinese Olympic Committee and the sports delegation for the upcoming Olympic and Asian Games [2][4]. Sales Performance - The fourth quarter saw a significant improvement in sales performance across various platforms, with the company’s e-commerce sales growing by 26% compared to the previous quarter [3][7]. - The overall sales growth for the sports brand sector in the fourth quarter showed a positive trend, with other brands also reporting improved sales figures [7]. Product Innovation - The introduction of the "超䨻" technology is expected to lead the industry in innovation, with new products designed to enhance performance for athletes [11][12]. Financial Forecast - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 3.06 billion, 3.06 billion, and 3.42 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -4.1%, 0.0%, and +11.9% [3][18]. - The target price remains at 17.9-19.2 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14-15x for 2025 [3][16].