Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to the company, Li Ning (2331 HK), with a target price of HKD 16.28, indicating a potential upside of 1.4% from the current price of HKD 16.06 [1][2][5]. Core Insights - The second quarter saw a slow recovery in sales, slightly below the company's expectations, with retail sales growth in the Li Ning brand (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) showing low single-digit year-on-year growth [5][6]. - The management indicated that the recovery trend in Q2 weakened compared to Q1, and sales and discounts remain under pressure since July [5]. - The report suggests that the company's sales recovery in the second half of the year will be gradual, leading to a downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [5][6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 29,007 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.2%. The revenue for 2026 and 2027 is projected to be RMB 30,103 million and RMB 30,945 million, respectively [4][8]. - Net profit estimates for 2025 have been revised down to RMB 2,678 million, with a projected decline in net profit margins due to increased promotional activities and competition [5][7]. - The report anticipates a slight decrease in gross margin for 2025, with a forecasted gross margin of 49.1% [7][8]. Sales Channel Performance - In Q2, online sales outperformed offline channels, with e-commerce showing mid-single-digit growth year-on-year, while offline retail experienced low single-digit declines [5][6]. - The wholesale channel performed better than retail, with low single-digit growth in wholesale and a decline in retail sales [5][6]. Store Optimization and Product Trends - The number of offline stores is undergoing slight adjustments, with a net increase of 11 stores compared to Q1, while Li Ning YOUNG saw a net decrease of 18 stores [6][8]. - Product category growth continued from Q1, with running and fitness categories leading, while basketball products faced significant declines [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning [6] Core Views - Li Ning's adult revenue showed low single-digit year-on-year growth in Q2 2025, with offline channel revenue declining and e-commerce revenue growing in mid-single digits [1][2] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product and marketing strategies to establish a foundation for long-term growth, particularly through its partnership with the Olympic Committee [3] - Revenue for 2025 is expected to remain flat year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline by 21% [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Sales Performance - In Q2 2025, Li Ning's direct sales revenue decreased in mid-single digits, attributed to a significant number of store closures in the second half of 2024 [1] - The wholesale channel revenue grew in low single digits, with the number of wholesale stores increasing to 4,821 by the end of H1 2025 [1] - E-commerce sales growth slowed compared to Q1 2025, with Q2 growth in mid-single digits, influenced by a weaker overall sales environment during the 618 shopping festival [2] Product Segments - Li Ning's children's clothing segment, Li Ning YOUNG, is expected to outperform adult sales, with a steady growth rate and an increase in store count to 1,435 by the end of Q2 2025 [2] - The company is enhancing its product structure and brand promotion for children's clothing to drive long-term growth [2] Inventory Management - Li Ning emphasizes inventory management, with an estimated inventory turnover ratio of around 4 by the end of Q2 2025, indicating a healthy inventory level [2] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 28.92 billion in 2025, with a net profit of 2.39 billion, reflecting a 21% decline [3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.92, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16 times [3][5] Market Position and Strategy - Li Ning is focusing on enhancing its brand influence through Olympic-related marketing activities and expanding its product matrix in various sports categories, including running, basketball, badminton, and outdoor sports [3]

Core Viewpoint - Company maintains EPS forecasts for 2025/26 at 0.92/1.07 HKD, with current stock price corresponding to 16/14 times 2025/26 P/E ratio, maintaining an outperform rating and target price of 20.82 HKD, indicating a 30% upside potential from current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the retail revenue of the Li Ning brand (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) grew low single digits year-on-year, with a net increase of 11 retail points in the quarter [1] - Wholesale channel continues to outperform direct sales, with offline wholesale retail revenue growing low single digits year-on-year and a net opening of 24 retail points during the period; online channel retail revenue grew mid single digits year-on-year [2] - The running category saw sales growth in high single digits year-on-year, while the fitness category continued to perform well with high single-digit growth; the sports lifestyle category stabilized with year-on-year growth flat in Q2 2025 [2] Group 2: Inventory and Discounts - Despite a volatile retail environment, the company maintained a healthy inventory level, with a channel inventory turnover ratio of approximately 4x as of the end of June, indicating controllable inventory status [2] - Discounts in both online and offline channels deepened low single digits year-on-year [2] Group 3: Marketing and Future Outlook - As retail remains volatile since July, the company plans to increase marketing and product investment focused on "Olympics plus technology" for the second half of the year, including activities related to Olympic sponsorship and new product launches in various categories [3] - The management maintains guidance for 2025 revenue to be flat year-on-year, with net profit margin in high single digits [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3][11] Core Views - In Q2 2025, the company's retail sales recorded low single-digit growth year-on-year, with a slowdown compared to Q1. E-commerce sales showed mid-single-digit growth, while discounts remained under pressure. The inventory-to-sales ratio improved to four months [3][4][5] - The company has a healthy channel inventory and cash operating situation, with marketing efforts expected to drive brand growth in the long term despite short-term profit pressures due to increased brand investment [3][11] - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 2.51 billion, 2.83 billion, and 3.04 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year changes of -16.8%, +12.8%, and +7.6% respectively [11][12] Retail Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the total number of sales points in China (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) was 6,099, a net increase of 11 from the previous quarter, but a net decrease of 18 year-to-date. The number of Li Ning YOUNG sales points was 1,435, with a net decrease of 18 from the previous quarter and 33 year-to-date [2][3] - The retail channel (direct operation) recorded a mid-single-digit decline, while the wholesale channel saw low single-digit growth. E-commerce virtual store business achieved mid-single-digit growth [2][3] Marketing Strategy - The marketing strategy focuses on two main lines: NBA (Yang Hansheng) and the Olympics (COC). The marketing expense ratio is expected to maintain a low double-digit level for the year, with significantly higher rates in the second half compared to the first half [3][5] - The company is launching limited products and personal logos in collaboration with NBA players, while also promoting a new product line centered around the Olympics and technology [5][11] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth of 0.5% in 2025, with expected revenues of 28.81 billion yuan, 30.24 billion yuan, and 31.90 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [12][16] - The expected earnings per share for 2025 is 0.97 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 15.4 [12][13]

Summary of Li Ning Company Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Li Ning Company - **Period**: Q2 2025 Key Points Store Performance - In Q2 2025, Li Ning's main brand stores decreased by 18, while Li Ning YOUNG brand stores decreased by 33, aligning with the company's plan for the year [2][4] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total number of Li Ning main brand stores was 6,099, a net increase of 11 from the previous quarter but a decrease of 18 from the end of the previous year [4] Sales and Revenue - Overall, the company achieved low single-digit revenue growth of approximately 1% in Q2 2025, which was below internal expectations [3] - The offline channel experienced a low single-digit decline, while the e-commerce channel saw a mid-single-digit growth, although performance during the 618 shopping festival was weak [3][5] Marketing and Brand Strategy - Following the signing of Yang Hansheng, Li Ning plans to launch limited edition products featuring his personal logo, aiming to enhance brand recognition despite short-term challenges in the basketball category [2][7] - The company is focusing on the "Honor Series" product line for the Olympics, with marketing centered around "Olympics plus Technology" [2][8] Inventory Management - Li Ning reported a healthy inventory situation with a turnover rate of approximately 4 months and a stock-to-sales ratio of around 4 [2][10] - The company is monitoring international brand inventory normalization and trends in high-end technology products to adjust its strategy accordingly [9][10] Market Challenges - The overall retail environment remains challenging, with increased discounting pressures leading to a decline in gross margins [2][14] - The company anticipates continued pressure on gross margins for the remainder of the year, making it difficult to maintain the previous year's gross margin level of 49.4% [14] Future Outlook - For H2 2025, Li Ning's marketing efforts will focus on the Olympics, with specific attention on running products that emphasize protection and stability, as well as outdoor products for the autumn and winter seasons [17][18] - The company expects competition to remain fierce in 2026, which could benefit market health but is difficult to predict due to macroeconomic uncertainties [11][12] Financial Strategy - Li Ning has increased its interim dividend and plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 50% while exploring other forms of shareholder returns, such as stock buybacks [26] - The company aims to balance revenue growth and discount strategies while maintaining a healthy inventory and managing risks [15][16] Marketing Activities - In H1 2025, Li Ning conducted various marketing activities, including a partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee and events promoting Olympic culture across multiple cities [25] - The company plans to increase marketing expenditures in H2 2025, particularly due to the Olympic-related activities [23] Product Development - Li Ning is expanding its product lines in niche categories like tennis and pickleball, while the badminton category has shown significant growth, although it remains smaller compared to major categories like running and basketball [21][22] Conclusion - Li Ning is navigating a challenging retail environment with strategic marketing initiatives and a focus on inventory management, while preparing for future growth opportunities in the context of the upcoming Olympics and evolving market dynamics [27]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.16% and the Tech Index opened down 0.15% [1] - NIO Inc. (09866.HK) saw an increase of over 4.5% [1] - Li Ning Company Limited (02331.HK) and Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. (09633.HK) both rose nearly 1.5% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the company is expected to experience a revenue growth of 2% and a decline in net profit attributable to shareholders of 16% in the first half of 2025, indicating a challenging market environment [1][2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating and has raised the target price by 5% to HKD 19.30, corresponding to an 18 times P/E ratio for 2026 [1][2] - The company's revenue for 1H25 is projected to reach approximately 14.63 billion yuan, with a gross margin decline of 0.5 percentage points to 49.9% [1][2] Group 2 - The company has expanded its product width significantly in the previous year, but the risk-reward ratio may decrease this year due to higher bases and increased inventory management challenges [2] - The company plans to enhance its outdoor product lines, particularly in light outdoor categories, with an expected introduction of around 5,000 stores by the end of the year [2] - The forecast for 2025-2027 revenue remains unchanged, with expected revenues of 28.69 billion, 29.25 billion, and 29.79 billion yuan respectively, while net profit estimates have been reduced by 6% to 7% for the same period [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strategic partnership between Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center Co., Ltd. and Li Ning (China) Sports Goods Co., Ltd. aimed at exploring the frontiers of humanoid robot sports science and technological breakthroughs [1] - The collaboration includes the establishment of a "Humanoid Robot Sports Science Joint Laboratory" at the Li Ning Sports Science Research Center, indicating a commitment to research and development in the field [1] - The partnership aims to promote the transformation of scientific research achievements and lead the integration of intelligent sports and the robotics industry [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HK$19.30, reflecting a 5% increase from the previous target price [3][6]. Core Views - The report anticipates a 2% year-on-year revenue growth and a 16% decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, with expected revenue of RMB 14.63 billion [1][6]. - The performance of Li Ning's running shoe matrix is strong, but the basketball category remains under pressure, leading to a forecasted retail discount increase in Q2 2025 [1][2]. - The report suggests that the company will continue to expand its product range, particularly in outdoor products, with a goal of introducing approximately 5,000 stores by the end of the year [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are maintained at RMB 28.686 billion, RMB 29.249 billion, and RMB 29.787 billion respectively, with a slight decrease in net profit estimates for the same period [3][4]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is revised down to RMB 2.403 billion, reflecting a 20.2% year-on-year decline, with a net profit margin of 8.4% [3][4]. - The report highlights a projected gross margin decrease of 0.6 percentage points to 48.8% for 2025 [7]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns an 18x P/E ratio for 2026, leading to a target price of HK$19.30, which indicates a 19% upside potential from the current stock price of HK$16.28 [3][6]. - Historical P/E ratios for Li Ning have fluctuated between 10-15x over the past two years, suggesting a continuation of the range trading logic unless there is a fundamental change [2][3].

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges and strategies of digital transformation in companies, particularly in the context of AI integration, highlighting that while 74% of Chinese companies believe AI will change digital systems, only 13% have seen measurable financial returns [1][4] - Li Ning Company exemplifies effective digital transformation by closely aligning technology innovation with business needs, showcasing a structured approach to integrating AI into retail operations [1][5] Group 1: Digital Transformation Challenges - Despite significant investments in digital infrastructure, there is a disparity between the costs and the business benefits realized by companies [1] - Only 36% of companies have adopted generative AI at scale, indicating a gap in implementation versus potential [1] Group 2: Li Ning's Approach to AI Integration - Li Ning has developed a "digital store manager," an AI tool that assists store managers by providing operational insights and decision-making support [3][4] - The company emphasizes retail operations as a core area for AI application, aiming to reduce operational pressure and enhance efficiency for store staff [4][5] Group 3: Technology and Business Alignment - Li Ning's technology innovation is driven by business needs, with a focus on creating a "Technology Organization Process" (TOP) that involves cross-departmental collaboration to identify how technology can improve business processes [5][6] - The company is adapting to consumer trends by enhancing content supply and personalizing marketing efforts through AI capabilities [8][9] Group 4: AI as a Growth Driver - Li Ning has set specific KPIs for its IT innovation center, focusing on the number of AI employees, growth drivers, and cost reduction [10][11] - The company has established three main business areas for AI application: product design to marketing, retail operations, and organizational talent management [11][12] Group 5: Evolving Role of Technology Teams - The technology team at Li Ning is transitioning from a support role to a business partnership role, emphasizing collaboration with business units to prioritize technology development [13][14] - The company is fostering a culture of AI integration across all business touchpoints, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and drive growth [14]