格隆汇1月20日丨洛阳钼业(03993.HK)发布公告，2026年1月19日，公司、发行人(即CMOC Capital Limited，公司的全资附属公司)与经办人订立认购协议。根据认购协议所载的条款及条件，经办人已同 意按个别而非共同基准认购及支付，或促使认购人认购及支付，由发行人发行的本金总额为12亿美元的 债券(即12亿美元于2027年到期的零息有担保可换股债券)，而公司已根据担保契据的条款，无条件及不 可撤销地担保发行人如期支付信托契据和债券项下应付的所有款项。 待债券发行完成后，债券发行所得款项净额将约为11.875亿美元。公司拟将该等所得款项用于支持公司 境外资源项目的扩产、优化及持续性资本开支，增强公司营运资金灵活性及一般公司用途。 初始转换价为每股H股28.03港元，较1月19日(即签署认购协议的交易日)在香港联交所所报最后收市价 每股H股21.78港元溢价约28.70%。假设按初始转换价每股H股28.03港元悉数转换债券，则债券将转换 为约3.337亿股H股，相当于公司于本公告日期现有已发行H股数目约8.48%及公司现有已发行股份数目 约1.56%。转换股份将由公司根据一般授权配发及发行。 ...

CMOC Capital Limited （於英屬維京群島註冊成立的有限公司） CMOC Group Limited* （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：03993） 擬根據一般授權發行1,200,000,000美元於2027年到期的 零息有擔保可換股債券 獨家全球協調人、牽頭賬簿管理人、聯席牽頭經辦人 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 本公告僅供參考，並非收購、購買或認購證券的邀請或要約，亦非邀請訂立協議進行收購、購 買或認購，且不可視為邀請提出收購、購買或認購證券的建議。 本公告並非供於美國（包括其領地及屬土、美國任何一個州及哥倫比亞特區）直接或間接分發。 本公告及其所載資料並不構成或組成在美國購買、認購或出售證券的任何要約或招攬。本公告 所述的證券並無亦將不會根據1933年《美國證券法》（經修訂）（「證券法」）或美國任何州或其他 司法權區的證券法登記。本公告所述證券未必會在美國發售或出售，惟根據1933年《美 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 CMOC Group Limited* 承董事會命 洛陽欒川鉬業集團股份有限公司 劉建鋒 董事長 中華人民共和國河南省洛陽市， 二零二六年一月二十日 於本公告日期，執行董事為劉建鋒先生、彭旭輝先生及闕朝陽先生（職工董事）； 非執行董事為林久新先生、蔣理先生及馬飛先生；及獨立非執行董事為王開國 先生、顧紅雨女士及程鈺先生。 * 僅供識別 股票代码：603993 股票简称：洛阳钼业 编号：2026—007 洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司 第七届董事会第十次临时会议决议公告 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：03993） 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條而作出。 以下為洛陽欒川鉬業集團股份有限公司（「本公司」）於上海證券交易所網站 (www.sse.com.cn)所發佈《洛陽鉬業第七屆董事會第十次臨時會議決議公告》。 2、酌情全权决定本次发行的具 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI Nonferrous Metals Industry Theme Index (000811) increased by 0.15%, with notable gains from companies such as Zhongfu Industrial (+6.41%) and Tianshan Aluminum (+4.06%) [1] - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) rose by 0.16%, closing at 1.89 yuan, and has seen a cumulative increase of 3.35% over the past week, ranking in the top half among comparable funds [1] - The trading volume for the Nonferrous 50 ETF reached 1.72 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 3.04% [1] Group 2: Fund Flow and Scale - The latest scale of the Nonferrous 50 ETF reached 5.792 billion yuan, marking a one-year high, with a total of 3.077 billion shares outstanding [2] - The fund experienced a net inflow of 1.11 billion yuan, with a total of 6.32 billion yuan net inflow over the past five trading days, averaging 1.26 billion yuan per day [2] - The leveraged funds have been actively investing, with a net purchase of 5.8525 million yuan this month and a current financing balance of 98.3112 million yuan [2] Group 3: Company Performance - Northern Rare Earth announced an expected net profit of 2.176 to 2.356 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 116.67% to 134.60% [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum Company projected a net profit of 20 to 20.8 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of 47.8% to 53.71% year-on-year, driven by increased product prices and effective cost control [3] Group 4: Industry Trends - The prices of key metals such as tungsten, molybdenum, and rare earths have risen due to increased overseas strategic reserve demand and tighter domestic export controls [4] - The global demand for rare earths is expected to grow significantly, driven by emerging sectors like electric vehicles and robotics, leading to a potential supply-demand gap starting in 2026 [3] - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) is positioned to benefit from a comprehensive coverage of various metal sectors, including gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths, amidst a super cycle in nonferrous metals [4][8]

Summary of CMOC 2026 Business Outlook Call Company Overview - **Company**: CMOC (China Molybdenum Co., Ltd.) - **Stock Ticker**: 3993.HK - **Market Cap**: HK$481,372 million (US$61,744 million) [7] Key Industry Insights Copper and Cobalt Production - **Copper Output**: - Achieved 741,000 tons (kt) in 2025, exceeding early guidance due to stable power supply in DRC for TFM and KFM projects, and technology upgrades for TFM [1][3] - Implied copper output for Q4 2025 was 198kt, representing a 4% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) increase [1][3] - Output guidance for 2026 is set at 760-820kt [1][3] - **Cobalt Output**: - Recorded 25.8 tons (t) in Q4 2025, a decrease of 16% QoQ [1][3] - Output guidance for 2026 is projected at 100-120kt [1][3] Financial Performance - **Net Profit Forecast**: - Expected net profit for 2025 is between RMB 20.0 billion and RMB 20.8 billion, marking an increase of 47.8%-53.7% year-over-year (YoY) [2] - Implied net profit for Q4 2025 is estimated at RMB 5.72-6.52 billion, reflecting a YoY increase of 9%-24% and a QoQ increase of 2%-16% [2] Strategic Developments Acquisition Plans - CMOC anticipates completing the acquisition of gold assets in Brazil from Equinox Gold in Q1 2026, with full-year output guidance for these assets estimated at 6-8t [4] Expansion Projects - **KFM Phase 2 Project**: Expected to achieve an average output of 100kt per annum during its mine life, operational by 2027 [6] - **TFM Expansion**: Feasibility study is being finalized, with potential to meet the lower limit of copper output guidance in 2028 (0.8-1.0 million tons) depending on the scale and timing of the expansion [6] Regulatory and Market Considerations Cobalt Quota Policy - CMOC's cobalt quota for KFM and TFM is set at 6.5kt for Q4 2025 and 312kt for 2026. Cobalt exports have not fully resumed, limiting contributions to Q1 2026 profits due to a ~3-month transportation period [5] Risks and Challenges - **Key Risks**: - Slowing grid investment in China [10][12] - Worse-than-expected real estate investment in China, potentially reducing copper demand and prices [10][12] - Acceleration of global mine supply impacting market dynamics [10][12] Valuation and Investment Outlook - **Target Price**: - DCF valuation yields a target price of HK$20.60, with an expected share price return of -8.4% and a dividend yield of 1.8% [7][9] - **Total Expected Return**: -6.7% [7] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from CMOC's 2026 Business Outlook Call, highlighting production forecasts, financial performance, strategic initiatives, and associated risks within the mining sector.

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights the increasing importance of strategic metals (copper, aluminum, cobalt, nickel, tin, antimony, tungsten, rare earths) due to supply disruptions and the limitations in production capacity in China and abroad [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Metal Storage Initiatives - Australia announced a strategic reserve plan for critical minerals worth AUD 1.2 billion, with AUD 185 million allocated for necessary mineral reserves, prioritizing antimony, gallium, and rare earths [2] - The European Commission approved a resource revival action plan to raise EUR 3 billion for supply chain strategies, establishing a platform to support critical material reserves [2] - The U.S. Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) plans to procure USD 500 million in cobalt, USD 245 million in antimony, USD 100 million in tantalum, and USD 45 million in scandium [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Strategic Metals - The focus on strategic metal storage in the U.S. and Australia presents significant investment opportunities, particularly in metals with concentrated supply chains and security risks, such as cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo and lithium from South America [3] - The rapid development of AI and energy transition is expected to drive demand for copper, aluminum, and tin, although supply constraints exist for these metals [4] - Military-related metals like tungsten, antimony, and rare earths are facing tightening supply, with production declines attributed to lower resource grades and regulatory controls [5] Group 3: Supply Concentration and Constraints - Copper, lithium, cobalt, and nickel supply is highly concentrated in South America, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Indonesia, with Chile and Peru accounting for 35% of global copper production and the Democratic Republic of Congo producing 76% of global cobalt [4] - The rapid growth of AI is expected to significantly increase demand for copper, aluminum, and tin, but supply for these metals is constrained [4] - Tungsten, antimony, and rare earths are critical for military applications, but their production has decreased due to resource management practices and regulatory measures [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For copper, recommended companies include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining [5] - For aluminum, Yunnan Aluminum is recommended, with China Aluminum as a focus [5] - For cobalt and nickel, Huayou Cobalt is recommended, with attention to Liqin Resources and Shengtun Mining [5] - For tungsten, focus on China Tungsten High-tech [5] - For tin, Xiyang Tin Industry is recommended, with interest in Xingye Silver Tin [5] - For antimony, Huaxi Nonferrous is highlighted, and for rare earths, Northern Rare Earth is recommended with a focus on China Rare Earth [5]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum's annual profit is expected to exceed 20 billion yuan for the first time, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 20 billion to 20.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.8% to 53.71% [2][3] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, with a projected growth of 64.68 million to 72.68 million yuan compared to the previous year, marking a 47.8% to 53.71% increase [3] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains is expected to be between 20.4 billion and 21.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 55.5% to 61.6% [3] - For Q4 2025, the net profit is estimated to be between 5.72 billion and 6.52 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.76% to 23.98% [3] Revenue Trends - From 2019 to 2024, Luoyang Molybdenum's revenue has shown consistent growth, with figures of 68.68 billion, 113 billion, 173.9 billion, 173 billion, 186.3 billion, and 213 billion yuan respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders has also increased steadily over the years, reaching 13.53 billion yuan in 2024, with projections for 2025 indicating a sixth consecutive year of growth [4] Product Performance - The company reported a production volume of 543,400 tons of copper in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.14%, with sales volume reaching 520,300 tons, up 10.56% [5] - Other products such as cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, niobium, and phosphate also showed positive trends in gross margins, with significant year-on-year increases [5] Strategic Expansion - Luoyang Molybdenum has been actively expanding its resource portfolio, including the acquisition of a 100% stake in the Cangrejos gold mine in Ecuador for approximately 580 million Canadian dollars, expected to produce 11.5 tons of gold annually starting in 2028 [6] - The company also announced a deal to acquire 100% interests in several gold mines in Canada for 1.015 billion USD, projected to increase annual gold production by 8 tons [7] Financial Health - As of Q3 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum's cash reserves reached 32.47 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 2.04 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, providing a strong liquidity position [7] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio has been steadily declining, from 64.89% in 2021 to 48.57% by Q3 2025, indicating improved financial stability [7] Shareholder Returns - Luoyang Molybdenum has consistently rewarded its shareholders, with a total cash dividend payout of 21.56 billion yuan since its listing in 2012, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 40.32% [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including 山金国际, 赤峰黄金, 洛阳钼业, 中国宏桥, and 中钨高新 [10]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a general upward trend, with significant price increases across various metals, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply chain dynamics [11][19]. - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs and trade policies on the supply and demand dynamics of key metals, particularly copper and aluminum [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production capacities, as these factors are critical in determining future price movements [26][35]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Concerns over tariffs have led to a temporary pullback in silver prices, but the long-term outlook remains positive [1]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as 兴业银锡 and 盛达资源 for potential investment opportunities [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper inventories are rising, particularly in the U.S., raising concerns about supply tightness in non-U.S. regions [2]. - The report notes that while high copper prices are suppressing end-user demand, the long-term consumption outlook remains strong due to infrastructure investments [2]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is expected to experience price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies [3]. - The report indicates that production cuts in aluminum processing are occurring, particularly in regions like Guizhou and Henan [3]. Nickel - Nickel prices are on an upward trend, supported by supply tightening expectations from Indonesia [4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring companies like 华友钴业 and 力勤资源 for investment opportunities [4]. Tin - Supply chain bottlenecks and macroeconomic factors are providing short-term support for tin prices [5]. - The report suggests that companies like 华锡有色 and 兴业银锡 may benefit from these market conditions [5]. Lithium - Lithium prices are experiencing wide fluctuations due to export policy expectations and demand uncertainties [6]. - The report recommends关注 companies such as 赣锋锂业 and 天齐锂业 for potential investment [6]. Cobalt - Progress in cobalt shipments from the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to support high cobalt prices in the short term [9]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like 华友钴业 and 腾远钴业 for investment opportunities [9].

Core Insights - In 2025, Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum both achieved record-high profits and market valuations, driven by strategic positioning in the global commodity market and effective operational management [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - Zijin Mining expects a net profit of 51-52 billion yuan for 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 59%-62%, with core mineral products seeing significant price and volume growth [2][3]. - Luoyang Molybdenum anticipates a net profit of 20-20.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.8%-53.71%, and is entering the 20 billion yuan profit range for the first time [2][3]. Production and Market Position - Zijin Mining's production includes approximately 90 tons of gold, 1.09 million tons of copper, and 437 tons of silver, positioning it as the fourth-largest metal mining company globally and the largest gold mining company [2][3]. - Luoyang Molybdenum's copper production reached 741,100 tons, with cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, and niobium also hitting historical highs [3][4]. Strategic Initiatives - Luoyang Molybdenum's success is attributed to its long-term strategic focus on the energy transition and early investments in overseas copper assets, alongside capitalizing on the current metal price upcycle [1][4]. - The company is advancing its KFM Phase II project, expected to add 100,000 tons of copper production annually by 2027, and is planning further expansions to reach a target of 1 million tons of copper by 2028 [4]. Management Changes - Zijin Mining has undergone a leadership transition, with a new management team emphasizing stability and internal promotion, which is seen as crucial for maintaining strategic continuity [5][6]. - Luoyang Molybdenum has introduced a new management team with significant external experience, aiming to enhance global management capabilities and adapt to evolving industry demands [7][8]. Industry Trends - The contrasting management strategies of Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum reflect broader trends in the mining industry, with Zijin focusing on internal stability and Luoyang on external talent acquisition to drive innovation and digital transformation [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Copper prices may experience high-level fluctuations in the short term due to inventory accumulation and delayed tariff expectations. Recent price changes for copper include a decrease of -0.50% for LME copper, -0.63% for SHFE copper, and -0.71% for COMEX copper. The significant inventory accumulation includes LME copper at 144,000 tons (+3.31%), COMEX copper at 54,300 short tons (+4.81%), and SHFE copper at 214,000 tons (+18.3%). The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory is at 321,000 tons (+17.20%). The operating rate for electrolytic copper rods increased to 57.47% (+9.65 percentage points) [4] - Aluminum prices are also expected to face high-level fluctuations due to inventory accumulation. The price of alumina has decreased by 1.12% to 2,655 CNY/ton, while SHFE aluminum rose by 0.83% to 24,185 CNY/ton. The operating capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina is at 89.16 million tons/year with an operating rate of 80.82% (+0.31 percentage points). Domestic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling, and demand is expected to grow, potentially leading to a shortage [4] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with carbonate lithium prices rising by 12.86% to 158,000 CNY/ton. The production of lithium carbonate is at 22,600 tons, with a slight increase of 0.3%. The demand for lithium battery materials continues to grow, and the supply-demand dynamics are expected to reverse, leading to an upward price trend [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply. The price of MB cobalt increased by 0.59% to 25.68 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices fell by 1.31% to 452,000 CNY/ton. The supply structure remains tight, and prices are likely to rise further [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The macroeconomic indicators show that the US December CPI year-on-year rate is at 2.70%, matching expectations. Retail sales for November increased by 0.6%, exceeding expectations of 0.4% [8] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows an increase of 3.03%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.48 percentage points, ranking third among the Shenwan sectors [10] 2. Industrial Metals - Copper: LME copper price decreased by 0.50%, SHFE copper by 0.63%, and COMEX copper by 0.71%. Inventory levels increased significantly, with LME copper inventory up by 3.31% and SHFE copper inventory up by 18.26% [24] - Aluminum: LME aluminum price fell by 0.73%, while SHFE aluminum rose by 0.83%. The inventory situation shows a mixed trend, with LME aluminum inventory down by 1.97% and SHFE aluminum inventory up by 29.24% [34] - Lead and Zinc: LME lead price increased by 1.03%, and SHFE lead by 1.62%. LME zinc price rose by 3.17%, and SHFE zinc by 4.38%. The mining profit for zinc increased by 5.77% to 11,284 CNY/ton [48] - Tin and Nickel: LME tin price rose by 11.68%, and SHFE tin by 18.70%. LME nickel price increased by 0.14%, and SHFE nickel by 5.77% [62] 3. Energy Metals - Lithium: The price of lithium carbonate increased by 12.86% to 158,000 CNY/ton, with lithium spodumene rising by 5.32% to 1,980 USD/ton. The profit margins for lithium production are showing significant fluctuations [78] - Cobalt: The price of MB cobalt increased by 0.59% to 25.68 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices decreased by 1.31% to 452,000 CNY/ton. The supply dynamics remain tight, supporting price increases [90]