Core Viewpoint - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has implemented a new quota management system for cobalt exports, setting annual export limits for 2026 and 2027 at 96,600 tons each, primarily allocated to companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Glencore, while local smelters receive no direct quotas [1][2]. Group 1: Cobalt Quota and Supply - The new quota system replaces the previous cobalt export ban, with 87,000 tons designated as basic quotas and 9,600 tons as ARECOMS strategic quotas [2]. - The global cobalt raw material supply is expected to decrease significantly, with projections indicating a supply of only 200,000 tons by 2025, while global cobalt consumption is anticipated to reach 221,000 tons and 231,000 tons in 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating a rigid shortage [3]. Group 2: Inventory and Price Dynamics - The inventory of cobalt products is continuously depleting, with China's cobalt chloride inventory days dropping from 46 days in April to 39 days currently, and the inventory of intermediate products at downstream smelters decreasing from 45,000 tons to 17,000 tons over five months [4]. - Cobalt product prices are currently inverted, with the average CIF price for cobalt intermediates in China rising from $5.95 per pound to $24.15 per pound, a 306% increase, indicating potential for further price adjustments as raw material inventories are consumed [5]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - The U.S. Department of Defense plans to restart a $500 million cobalt procurement tender, marking the first large-scale cobalt purchase by the U.S. since the Cold War, with awards expected in early February 2026 [6].

截至月份: 2025年11月30日 狀態: 新提交 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 洛陽欒川鉬業集團股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年12月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03993 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,933,468,000 | RMB | | 0.2 | RMB | | 786,693,600 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 3,933,468,000 | RMB | | 0.2 | RMB | | 786,693,600 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The cobalt supply crisis continues, with prices expected to rise to new heights due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) [14][16] - The DRC's new quota management system has significantly reduced annual cobalt export volumes, with a maximum of 96,600 tons allowed for 2026/2027 [14][15] - Global cobalt supply is projected to decrease to 206,000 tons in 2025, with consumption expected to reach 221,000 tons in 2026 and 231,000 tons in 2027, indicating a rigid supply shortage [21][22] Summary by Sections Cobalt Supply and Demand - The DRC's new export quota system has replaced previous export bans, leading to a projected annual export volume of less than 100,000 tons [14][16] - The global cobalt supply is expected to sharply decline to 200,000 tons, with the DRC contributing significantly to this reduction [16][21] - Cobalt consumption is anticipated to maintain growth, with projections of 221,000 tons in 2026 and 231,000 tons in 2027, indicating a persistent supply shortage [21][22] Price Trends - Cobalt product prices have seen a significant increase, with the average CIF price for cobalt intermediates in China rising from $5.95 per pound to $24.15 per pound, a 306% increase [26] - Current prices for cobalt products in China are reported at 402,000 CNY per ton for cobalt metal and 432,000 CNY per ton for cobalt sulfate [26] - The report suggests that as cobalt raw material inventories are consumed, there is potential for further price increases in cobalt products [26] Market Dynamics - The overall non-ferrous metals market continues to show strength, with significant price increases observed in tungsten, lithium, and aluminum [30] - The report highlights that the U.S. Department of Defense is set to restart a $500 million cobalt procurement program, marking a significant move in cobalt supply dynamics [26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Views - The report highlights the continued trading around December interest rate cuts and the geopolitical issues surrounding Russia and Ukraine. The probability of a December rate cut is currently at 85%, with several Federal Reserve officials supporting the continuation of rate cuts. This has led to a decrease in U.S. Treasury yields and an increase in gold prices. However, the upcoming FOMC meeting will also focus on the dot plot and comments from Powell, which may impact short-term gold prices [2][11]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine negotiations remains significant, with recent proposals from the U.S. and Europe facing resistance from Ukraine and Russia. The report suggests that substantive territorial issues are challenging to resolve, indicating a complex negotiation landscape ahead [2][11]. - The potential appointment of Hassett as the Federal Reserve Chair could further strengthen gold prices, as his dovish stance may enhance market expectations for future rate cuts and raise concerns about the Fed's independence [2][11]. Summary by Sections Weekly Research Views - The report discusses the ongoing focus on December interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the high probability of a rate cut and its implications for gold prices. It also notes the complexities in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the potential impact of a new Fed Chair on market expectations [2][11]. Sector Performance - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, while the non-ferrous metals index increased by 3.42%, outperforming the market by 2.02%. The top-performing sub-sectors included tungsten, lead-zinc, and nickel-cobalt-tin [13][14]. Metal Prices and Inventories - The report notes a general increase in metal prices, with LME copper reaching $11,189 per ton, marking a 3.8% increase. Other metals also saw price increases, with significant movements in lithium and cobalt prices. The report highlights the ongoing bullish sentiment in the copper market, driven by expectations of rate cuts and supply constraints [12][32][46].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the tightness in copper mines is being transmitted to electrolytic copper, leading to an optimistic outlook for copper prices reaching new highs [1] - The China Copper Raw Materials Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) has reached a consensus to reduce copper mine production capacity by over 10% by 2026, indicating a commitment to address the supply shortage [2] - CSPT members cover approximately 70% of China's electrolytic copper production capacity, with a total capacity of about 1,422,000 tons as of October 2025 [3] Group 2 - The reduction in copper mine production is seen as an inevitable result of the tight supply expected in 2025/2026, with several mines already adjusting their production forecasts downward due to various disruptions [4] - The profitability of smelting companies is increasingly reliant on by-products like sulfuric acid, as the treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) have been declining, with spot prices reaching historical lows [5] - Global copper inventories are at a six-year high, but regional imbalances may exacerbate tightness in electrolytic copper outside the U.S., particularly due to expectations of U.S. tariffs [6]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment for non-ferrous and precious metals is high, driven by increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to significant price increases in gold, silver, and copper [2][10][16]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 1, the Hong Kong and A-share markets opened positively, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3900 points, particularly boosted by non-ferrous and precious metals [1]. - Spot gold prices briefly surpassed $4250 per ounce, while spot silver reached a historic high of $57.88 per ounce [3]. - The A-share precious metals sector has seen a nearly 76% increase year-to-date, following a week of consecutive gains [8][6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - The global financial market is experiencing a surge in optimism due to heightened expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a probability of 87.4% for a 25 basis point cut in December [12][17]. - Market sentiment is further fueled by speculation regarding the potential appointment of Hassett as the new Fed chair, who is expected to advocate for aggressive rate cuts [13][15]. Group 3: Diverging Views on Gold - Despite the bullish sentiment, notable investors have expressed caution regarding gold, with some recommending selling positions. For instance, Hong Hao has sold all his gold holdings, citing a potential price bubble [20]. - Li Bei has also exited his gold positions, indicating that he believes the best phase for gold has passed and considers current prices overvalued [20]. - Fu Peng acknowledges structural risks for gold but maintains that it still holds value, viewing it as a "credit yardstick" amid increasing volatility [20].

Core Insights - The rare metals industry is experiencing a price increase across multiple segments, driven by supply constraints and recovering demand, particularly in the new energy vehicle materials sector [1][2] - Lithium and rare earth materials are showing strong price performance, with lithium carbonate prices reaching 93,800 yuan/ton, up 1.6% month-on-month, and lithium hexafluorophosphate prices at 167,500 yuan/ton, up 6.7% month-on-month [1][2] - The supply-demand dynamics for lithium are shifting from a loose to a tighter market, with significant price increases observed in lithium salts and other materials [2] Industry Summary - Recent price increases in lithium and rare earth materials are attributed to supply-side constraints, including mining rights issues and environmental regulations affecting production [1][2] - The lithium battery supply chain is characterized by strong downstream demand, leading to a robust price increase across various materials [1][2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized the need to regulate "involutionary" competition and improve capacity management, which may help restore supply-demand balance and enhance profitability in the industry [2] Market Performance - The rare metals ETF has seen a significant increase, with a 1.71% rise in the index and a notable inflow of capital, indicating strong investor interest [3] - The top-weighted stocks in the rare metals sector have shown substantial gains, with Tianhua New Energy up 8.26% and Luoyang Molybdenum up 5.05% [3] - The materials ETF has also performed well, with a near 3% increase and significant contributions from leading stocks in the sector [3]

Group 1 - Copper stocks have collectively strengthened, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as Jiangxi Copper (up 7.69% to HKD 33.04), China Daye Nonferrous Metals (up 7.53% to HKD 0.1), and others [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures surged over 4%, breaking the USD 11,200 mark, reaching a new historical high after four weeks [1] - Guosheng Securities forecasts a copper supply shortage in 2026, with an expected increase of only 630,000 tons, insufficient to meet the growing demand [1] Group 2 - Dongfang Securities anticipates that the ongoing supply tightness will continue to drive up copper prices, with smelting capacity control expected to improve midstream profitability [2] - The Chilean National Copper Corporation has significantly raised long-term contract prices for 2026, indicating a tight supply situation with a premium of USD 350 per ton [2] - The AI research initiative launched by Trump may further boost copper demand due to increased construction of AI data centers [2]

Group 1: Stock Movements and Market Reactions - Hengdeli (03389) resumed trading and rose over 10% after announcing a voluntary cash offer at HKD 0.14 per share for all issued shares, excluding those already owned by the offeror and Mr. Feng Jiaqiao [1] - Anjuke Food (02648) increased nearly 5% following a report from Huachuang Securities after attending its 2025 first extraordinary general meeting, where management addressed operational and product channel strategies [1] - Copper stocks collectively surged, with Jiangxi Copper (00358) up 8.08%, China Daye Nonferrous Metals (00661) up 8.6%, and others, driven by a significant rise in LME copper futures, which exceeded USD 11,200, marking a historical high [1] Group 2: Industry-Specific Developments - Lichun Resources (02245) rose over 3% as reports indicated a major Chinese-controlled nickel smelter in Indonesia is cutting production due to tailings management issues [2] - Yuhua Education (06169) saw a nearly 1.89% increase after reporting a revenue of RMB 2.497 billion for the year ending August 31, 2025, a 5.4% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit rising 95.6% to RMB 914 million [2] - Jiantao Laminates (01888) increased nearly 7% as AI-driven demand for high-end PCBs surged, leading to price increases for key materials [2] Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations - ZTE Corporation (00763) rose over 11% following reports of an upcoming AI phone launch in collaboration with ByteDance [2] - JD Health (06618) increased nearly 4% as demand for respiratory disease testing kits surged with the flu season, indicating a growing market for health-related products [3] - Xindong Company (02400) rose over 3% after announcing a strategic cooperation agreement with Golden Arc, including a financing agreement for USD 40 million [3] Group 4: Financial Performance Highlights - Bawang Tea (CHA.US) rose 6.09% after reporting Q3 results with a total GMV of RMB 7.93 billion and net income of RMB 3.208 billion, with overseas GMV increasing by 75.3% year-on-year [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong copper industry stocks have collectively strengthened, with significant price increases observed across various companies [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Jiangxi Copper Company (00358.HK) increased by 7.69%, reaching HKD 33.04 [1] - China Daye Non-Ferrous Metals (00661.HK) rose by 7.53%, trading at HKD 0.1 [1] - Minmetals Resources (01208.HK) saw a rise of 6.8%, priced at HKD 7.38 [1] - China Nonferrous Mining (01258.HK) gained 6.35%, with a share price of HKD 15.9 [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) increased by 5.2%, now at HKD 17 [1]