Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The report highlights a robust growth in visitor numbers during the Dragon Boat Festival, with a projected total of 6.87 billion trips, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [1][18] - The demand for family-oriented travel has surged, particularly for short-distance self-driving trips and parent-child tours, with bookings for parent-child group tours increasing by 80% year-on-year [1][2] - The launch of new products by Lao Pu Gold, such as the Seven Sons Gourd, is expected to drive high demand in the fashion gold jewelry sector, despite a tightening overall consumption environment [2] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The consumer service index and retail index outperformed the CSI 300 index, with significant gains in the jewelry and watch sector [11] - The report notes a 5.1% year-on-year increase in total retail sales in April, with jewelry sales growing by 25.3% [36][50] 2. Industry & Company Dynamics - The report discusses the increase in domestic tourism, with various regions reporting significant visitor numbers during the holiday period [18][19] - Lao Pu Gold's new product launch is positioned to capture the growing trend in fashion jewelry, appealing to consumer sentiment and aesthetic preferences [2][3] 3. Macro & Industry Data - April's retail sales data indicates a stable growth trajectory, with online retail sales showing a 5.8% year-on-year increase [37] - The report provides insights into the gold jewelry market, noting a decline in overall gold consumption but an increase in gold bars and coins [52][55] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests five investment themes, including the revival of traditional retail formats, the rise of AI technology applications, and the potential for new retail sectors to outperform expectations [59][61]

在经历2020年大量开店、2021年批量关店、2024年探索新 店型的"红石榴计划"之后，海底捞直营门店数量在过去一年仍 是负增长。在扩张效率和品牌调性之间，加盟模式正在考验海 底捞的管理平衡术。 作者：郑淯心 美编：肖利亚 导读 壹 || 海底捞要求加盟商具备1000万元以上的资金实力。"但如果只有1000万元，基本没机 会。"首轮遭遇淘汰的一位申请者说。 贰 || 对潜在加盟商来说，他们更关心的一个问题是：成为海底捞加盟商的收益究竟如何？ 叁 || 疫情后数据显示，海底捞三线及以下城市营收持续增长且占比不断提升。尽管数量不 高，加盟仍被视为海底捞破局的关键解法。 手握千万元资金，也未必能成为海底捞的加盟商。 海底捞对加盟商的要求是：钱多，有资源，高度认可海底捞的文化，且不参与门店管理。 自2024年3月开放加盟渠道以来，海底捞的加盟事业部称，在过去一年收到超2万份加盟申请，但 加盟事业部人力有限，加之海底捞实行三轮筛选机制，截至2024年底，海底捞仅新开出3家加盟 店，另有10家加盟店由直营店转换而来。 5月27日，海底捞董事局副主席周兆呈飞到广州，面试当地一位潜在加盟商。周兆呈是海底捞加盟 业务的负责人 ...

Core Insights - The company is cautiously expanding its franchise model, having received over 20,000 applications since opening franchise opportunities in March 2024, but only three new franchise stores have been opened by the end of 2024 [2][20] - The franchise model is seen as a key solution for the company to penetrate lower-tier cities, where 70% of the franchise applications come from [23][31] - The company emphasizes a strong management control system for franchisees to maintain service quality consistent with its direct-operated stores [11][19] Group 1 - The company requires franchisees to have over 10 million yuan in capital, but having only this amount may not guarantee approval [9][20] - Franchisees must first "purchase" an existing store, which includes all previous operational costs, to ensure they understand the business model and market dynamics [4][5][7] - The franchise model is designed to leverage local franchisees' resources and connections to enhance store performance and customer acquisition [7][25] Group 2 - The company has implemented a strong management system where franchisees do not have direct control over store operations, ensuring consistency in service and product standards [11][12][19] - Franchisees can suggest locations for new stores, but the final decision remains with the company [13][14] - The company does not guarantee profits or fixed returns for franchisees, but it does provide operational support in case of difficulties [15][19] Group 3 - The company has faced challenges in expanding its franchise model, with a significant contrast between its slow growth and the rapid expansion of competitors [21][22] - The company’s cautious approach stems from past experiences of aggressive expansion leading to significant losses, prompting a more measured strategy [20][22] - The company is exploring new brands and concepts to diversify its offerings and find new growth avenues, with a focus on lower-tier cities [22][23]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The internationalization of Chinese cuisine is driven by multiple factors including policy support, the growth of overseas Chinese communities, and the economic vitality of target markets [30][41] - The scale of Chinese restaurant brands going abroad has expanded significantly, with the international market size projected to reach approximately $4,452 billion by 2027, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [41][38] - Southeast Asia is identified as the primary destination for Chinese restaurant expansion due to cultural similarities and a large overseas Chinese population [45][41] Summary by Sections 1. Background, Drivers, and Market Overview of Chinese Restaurant Brands Going Abroad - The history of Chinese restaurants going abroad can be traced back to the mid-19th century, evolving through three waves from individual survival to modern brand globalization [26][24] - The current internationalization process has shifted from serving primarily Chinese communities to catering to a global consumer base, with significant growth in Southeast Asia and North America [30][24] - The Chinese restaurant industry is experiencing intense domestic competition, prompting many brands to seek growth opportunities abroad [29][30] 2. Benchmark Case Studies of Going Abroad - Hot pot brands like Haidilao have successfully penetrated international markets, establishing over 120 stores across 14 countries [20] - Fast-casual concepts such as Suancaiyu and Malatang have emerged as strong contenders in the international fast-food segment [20] - High-end dining brands like Din Tai Fung and Da Dong Peking Duck are focusing on the high-end markets in Europe and North America [20] 3. Strategies and Trend Forecasts - The report outlines challenges and countermeasures for brands, emphasizing the need for a balance between standardization, cultural output, and local operations [8][30] - Future trends indicate a continued focus on supply chain localization and menu innovation to adapt to local tastes [30][35] - The report highlights the importance of digital solutions and data platforms in optimizing supply chain management for international operations [35][62] 4. Supply Chain and Localization - The supply chain for Chinese restaurant brands has matured significantly, with a focus on centralized kitchens and standardized procurement processes [35][33] - The report emphasizes the necessity of local partnerships in Southeast Asia to navigate the fragmented supply chain landscape [53][50] - Digitalization and technology are driving efficiency in inventory management and logistics, crucial for successful international expansion [62][61] 5. Market Size and Distribution - The international market for Chinese cuisine is projected to grow from $2,330 billion in 2020 to $3,625 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.1% [38][41] - The distribution of new stores is heavily concentrated in Southeast Asia and North America, leveraging cultural affinities and existing Chinese communities [41][39] - The report notes that the Southeast Asian market is characterized by a young population and a growing middle class, driving demand for diverse dining options [45][46] 6. Regional Insights - In North America, Chinese cuisine holds a significant market share, with approximately 39% of Asian restaurants offering Chinese food [56][60] - The report highlights the favorable immigration policies and cultural openness in Japan and South Korea, facilitating the entry of Chinese restaurant brands [68][67] - The supply chain in North America is highly concentrated, with major players dominating the market, which presents both opportunities and challenges for new entrants [61][60]

Group 1 - The Chinese catering industry is at a crossroads of scale expansion and value reconstruction, with a projected revenue growth of 5.3% in 2024, reaching 5.57 trillion yuan [1] - The industry faces pressures of declining average spending and profits, alongside intensified market competition [1] - A significant trend is emerging where capable catering and tea enterprises are accelerating their overseas expansion, focusing on cultural integration, standardization, and supply chain development [1] Group 2 - The international catering service market is expected to reach $3.8 trillion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.9% from 2022 to 2026 [2] - The share of Chinese cuisine in the international market is projected to grow to 10.8% by 2026, outpacing the overall growth of the international catering market [2] - Key motivations for Chinese brands to enter international markets include the need for market expansion, cultural promotion through cuisine, and increasing acceptance of Chinese food among local consumers [2] Group 3 - The Chinese government has issued guidelines to support the overseas expansion of Chinese cuisine, including cooperation in inspection and quarantine, and promoting Chinese chefs to work abroad [3] - Historical examples of successful overseas expansion include companies like Happy Lamb, which has established over 100 stores in more than 10 countries [3] - The current phase of globalization for Chinese catering is shifting from single-store models to systematic and scalable development [3] Group 4 - Supply chain integration is a core driver for the success of Chinese catering enterprises in international markets, with companies like Haidilao and Mixue leveraging their supply chain advantages [4] - Mixue has established a vast network of over 46,000 stores across 11 countries, supported by a standardized product system [4] - The company aims to continue expanding into new markets to build a globally influential brand [4] Group 5 - The process of "going overseas" is not without challenges, including cultural misunderstandings and regulatory hurdles that can lead to operational difficulties [5][6] - Establishing a global certification system for Chinese chefs and leveraging technology in supply chains are seen as essential for overcoming these challenges [6] - Successful overseas expansion requires careful brand development and local market adaptation, as well as digital empowerment strategies [7] Group 6 - Industry associations are increasingly focused on supporting enterprises in their overseas endeavors, addressing needs for cross-border resource integration and local operational support [8] - Several companies, including Guming and Mixue, have successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to secure funding for their international strategies [8] - Future plans for overseas expansion include targeting markets with significant growth potential, such as Malaysia, the Philippines, and North America [8]

Group 1 - The core idea of the articles highlights the employee welfare initiatives of Haidilao, particularly focusing on educational subsidies and support for employees' children [1][3][5] - In September 2024, Haidilao will distribute scholarships totaling 4.47 million yuan to 508 children of employees entering university [1] - The company has been providing educational subsidies since 2005, covering various stages from preschool to university, with a specific program offering 8,800 yuan for university students [3] Group 2 - Haidilao has implemented a "parent-child companionship" program since 2019, which includes housing, education, and childcare subsidies to help employees bring their children to their work locations [5] - For employees unable to relocate their children, Haidilao offers support for those willing to return to their hometown stores, facilitating family reunification [5] - The company's welfare programs are seen as a benchmark in the industry, demonstrating a commitment to employee care and support [5]

Group 1 - The forum focused on the theme "Multi-party Cooperation to Ensure Cultural Trade Sets Sail" and featured discussions on policies to promote high-quality development in cultural trade [1] - Key officials from various government departments shared the latest policy measures aimed at enhancing cultural trade, highlighting Shenzhen's innovative experiences in digital cultural trade [1] - Industry leaders discussed the role of digital technology in driving product innovation, business model innovation, and operational innovation within cultural trade [1] Group 2 - Experts explored how digital technology can revitalize traditional culture and enhance the global competitiveness of Chinese intellectual property (IP) [2] - The forum included discussions on brand building and operational services, with insights on how Chinese brands can break through on the global stage [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the experience of Haidilao in expanding its brand internationally, emphasizing the integration of culture and technology to promote Chinese culinary culture globally [3][4]. Company Strategy - Haidilao has been expanding internationally since opening its first overseas store in Singapore in 2012, currently operating 123 self-owned restaurants across 14 countries on four continents as of Q1 2025 [4]. - The company aims to attract 29.9 million customers at its overseas locations in 2024 [4]. - Haidilao employs a dual-track product strategy, retaining its signature dishes while introducing localized products to better connect with target markets [4][5]. - Cultural performances, such as Sichuan opera face-changing and noodle-throwing, are incorporated into the dining experience to enhance brand engagement and emotional connection with local consumers [4][5]. Cultural Integration - The "Panda Reception Hall" project serves as a cultural exchange platform, showcasing Chengdu's charm and promoting cultural tourism and trade [5][6]. - The project has been implemented in four Haidilao locations, featuring local arts and performances to attract diverse audiences and enhance cultural understanding [5][6]. - Chengdu has become the second most popular city for Thai tourists visiting China, highlighting the success of Haidilao's cultural initiatives [6]. Future Outlook - Haidilao plans to continue leveraging its "city reception hall" concept to provide a "food + culture" experience, aiming to spread the essence of Chinese aesthetics globally [7].

Core Insights - The company is optimizing its operational model through a multi-dimensional approach, focusing on product, scene, and management improvements [1] - The "Red Pomegranate" plan is showing positive results, with significant brand incubation and expansion efforts [1][2] Group 1: Operational Model Optimization - The company employs a bottom-up site selection mechanism and strictly controls franchisee entry standards, optimizing its operational model across three dimensions: product, scene, and management [1] - In the product dimension, the company plans to focus on fresh-cut meat and seasonal series by 2025 [1] - The scene dimension will see an emphasis on expanding themed stores and corporate park locations [1] - Management improvements include implementing a dual management store model and a dedicated customer manager system [1] Group 2: Franchise Development - The company will launch its franchise program in March 2024, with a rigorous selection mechanism that includes qualification reviews, operational capability assessments, and long-term development compatibility evaluations [1] - As of the end of 2024, 13 franchise stores have been established, with a strong management model to ensure service quality and standardization [1] Group 3: Brand Incubation and Growth - The "Red Pomegranate" plan, initiated in 2024, encourages the incubation of new brands, resulting in the establishment of 11 restaurant brands and 74 stores by the end of 2024 [1] - This initiative is expected to create a second growth curve for the company [1] Group 4: Digital and Supply Chain Enhancements - The company is leveraging big data and AI technology to enhance customer satisfaction and reduce churn rates through an AI-driven post-meal evaluation system [2] - The self-developed "HiHi System" app has achieved over 20,000 monthly clicks, and the deployment of over 50 AI robots is improving efficiency across customer service and supply chain operations [2] Group 5: Financial Projections - The company anticipates net profits for 2025-2027 to be 4.87 billion, 5.03 billion, and 5.27 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.44%, 3.27%, and 4.77% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.87, 0.90, and 0.95 yuan for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15.90x, 15.40x, and 14.70x [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao (06862.HK) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on steady progress and active advancement, with expectations for revenue growth and profit improvement through various strategic initiatives [8] - The "Red Pomegranate" plan has shown positive results, with the company successfully incubating new brands and expanding its store network [8] - The company is enhancing its operational model through a bottom-up site selection mechanism and strict control over franchisee standards [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 41,622 million RMB in 2023 to 47,244 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.62% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4,499 million RMB in 2023 to 5,269 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 4.77% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.81 RMB in 2023 to 0.95 RMB in 2027 [1] Operational Strategies - The company is implementing a dual management model and exclusive customer manager system to optimize its management practices [8] - A strict selection mechanism for franchisees is in place, ensuring quality and operational capability [8] - Digital upgrades and supply chain optimization are being pursued through the use of big data and AI technologies [8]