智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，据交通运输部，五一假期前三日，全社会跨区域人员流 动总量91524万人次/同比+5.8%。结合携程数据，相较清明假期，五一黄金周游客出行距离呈现显著延 伸：五一期间跨市住宿订单占比已突破80%，连住两日及以上的深度游用户比例预期将达到20%。据国 家移民管理局预测，今年"五一"假期全国口岸日均出入境人员将达215万人次，较去年同期增长27%。 其中，受益于入境免签及境外旅客购物离境退税"即买即退"举措，携程数据显示今年五一入境游订单量 同比去年增长173%。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 五一假期前三日出游人次增长超预期，假期天数增加推动出行半径扩大 山东省：假期前三日，全省重点监测的200家旅游景区累计接待游客1648万人次/同比+7.5%，景区营业 收入合计9亿元/同比+8.1%，人均消费54.6元/同比+0.6%。上海迪士尼乐园：假期前三日，园区客流量 合计30万人次/同比+12.5%。 出入境人次维持高增长，免签政策推动入境游订单大增 据国家移民管理局预测，今年"五一"假期全国口岸日均出入境人员将达215万人次，较去年同期增长 27%。其中，受益于入境免签及境 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance and forecasts are in line with expectations, accelerating the implementation of a three-year strategy, which is expected to seize opportunities for building a first-class investment bank and achieve better-than-expected growth [1]. Investment Highlights - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 19.60 yuan, corresponding to a 1.8x PB for 2025. In Q1 2025, revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders are projected at 7.56 billion and 3.02 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 4.8% and 84.9%, consistent with performance forecasts [2]. - The weighted average ROE increased by 1.14 percentage points to 2.44%. The acceleration of supply-side reforms in the industry and the company's ongoing three-year strategy implementation are expected to lead to better-than-expected growth [2]. - The recovery in investment and the high growth of wealth management business are driving profit growth. The brokerage, investment banking, asset management, and investment businesses achieved year-on-year growth of 53%, 59%, 19%, and 94%, respectively. Investment income contributed 68% of the revenue increase, while brokerage business contributed 30% [2]. - The high growth in investment business is primarily due to improved investment returns from a low base, with an annualized investment return rate of 3.3%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year. The scale of financial assets decreased by 9% year-on-year to 386.3 billion yuan [2]. Strategic Progress - The company is accelerating the implementation of its three-year strategy, aiming to seize opportunities for building a first-class investment bank. The new "National Nine Articles" focuses on returning to the essence of the industry and strengthening leading institutions through mergers, reorganizations, and organizational innovations [3]. - The company has made significant progress in its three-year strategy, enhancing its "five-in-one" business model and continuously improving its professional capabilities. The institutional business has launched the "Galaxy Tiangong 2.0" platform to deepen and expand its service system [3]. - The investment banking business is undergoing professional reforms, showing gradual results, while the international business has officially launched the "Galaxy Overseas" brand, aiming to become a modern investment bank based in Asia [3]. - The new round of capital market reforms has accelerated since the beginning of the year, providing the company with opportunities to expedite the construction of a first-class investment bank and achieve better-than-expected growth [3].

上天天基金APP搜索【777】领 98 元券包 ，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 中信证券：A股将继续呈现风偏回暖、主题轮动特征 展望5月，中信证券预计风险偏好还有回升空间，A股将继续呈现风偏回暖、主题轮动的特征，以低机构持仓 的主题型交易机会为主。但从经济层面来看，真实的影响已经悄然发生，中信证券预计中美经济在二季度尾声 可能会面临新的变数。 配置上，除了短期的热点主题轮动，中信证券依然建议聚焦三个不变的大趋势：一是中国自主科技能力的提升 趋势不会动摇；二是欧洲重建自主防务，提升能源、基建和资源储备的趋势不会动摇；三是中国势必要走 通"双循环"，加速完善社会保障并激发内需潜力是政策的必选项。 广发证券：景气投资回归 短期A股考虑三重因素：一是一些负面的一季报靴子落地；二是TMT反应度模型已经处于下限位置；三是国内 外大厂在大模型、算力芯片、端侧、AI应用的进展不断，5月—6月继续看好科技股的机会。 中期角度来说，回到三类资产对应的三个模型，在出现地产周期大反弹或科技应用大爆发之前，中长期对中性 股息组合保持关注。另外，考虑到国内科技大厂资本开支正在加大、产业链订单开始释放，景气成长组合以及 所代表 ...

Core Insights - The performance of listed securities firms in Q1 2025 shows significant growth, with over 70% of firms reporting increases in both revenue and net profit, indicating a potential new upward cycle for the securities industry [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue for 42 listed securities firms reached 125.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.6%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 52.18 billion yuan, up 83.48% [3] - CITIC Securities led the revenue rankings with 17.76 billion yuan, followed by the merged Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities at 11.77 billion yuan, and Huatai Securities at 8.23 billion yuan [3] - Over 70% of firms reported revenue growth, with Guolian Minsheng Securities showing the highest increase at 800.98% [3][4] Group 2: Profitability - More than 80% of securities firms experienced year-on-year net profit growth, with Northeast Securities showing the most significant increase at 859.84% [4] - Guotai Junan Securities achieved a net profit of 12.24 billion yuan, surpassing CITIC Securities, making it the only firm to exceed 10 billion yuan in net profit for the quarter [3][4] Group 3: Revenue Structure - Proprietary trading and brokerage services accounted for nearly 65% of total revenue, with net income from proprietary trading and brokerage services increasing by 51.02% and 48.70%, respectively [5] - 17 firms reported brokerage service net income growth exceeding 50%, with Guolian Minsheng Securities leading at 333.69% [5] Group 4: Market Conditions - The A-share market saw a significant increase in trading volume and new account openings, with 7.47 million new accounts opened in Q1 2025, a 31.7% increase from the previous year [6] - The average daily trading volume reached 1.7 trillion yuan, a 70% year-on-year increase, indicating a robust market environment [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts expect the securities industry to maintain a high level of prosperity in 2025, driven by high trading volumes and a recovering capital market [7] - The industry is anticipated to enter a new upward cycle, supported by ongoing policy initiatives and improving market sentiment [7]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market outlook for May is optimistic, with expectations for A-shares to "catch up" post-holiday, particularly in light of the positive trends in Hong Kong stocks and the renminbi exchange rate [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - On May 2, Hong Kong stocks experienced a significant rise, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.74% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 3.08% [2]. - The offshore renminbi strengthened, reaching a high of 7.24 against the US dollar, the highest level since April 4 [2]. - Analysts suggest that the trade tensions are showing signs of marginal easing, contributing to a positive market sentiment [2][3]. Group 2: Policy and Economic Signals - The Central Political Bureau's recent meeting conveyed positive signals aimed at stabilizing the capital market, emphasizing the need for a "stable and active capital market" [3]. - The easing of aggressive tariff policies by the US is expected to reduce market volatility and improve liquidity expectations [3]. Group 3: Focus on Technology - Analysts are optimistic about domestic technology-related assets, highlighting that the current monetary policy environment favors small-cap growth stocks [4]. - The Chinese government has provided substantial policy support for sectors like AI, robotics, and biomedicine, enhancing the competitive potential of domestic companies [4][5]. Group 4: Dividend Stocks as Safe Haven - Dividend assets are recognized for their stabilizing role in volatile market conditions, providing steady cash flow and additional returns [6][7]. - Research indicates that companies are improving their cash flow and dividend capabilities, with the non-financial free cash flow to equity ratio reaching historical highs [6][7]. - The dividend yield of the CSI 300 index is projected to be 3.2%, significantly higher than the ten-year government bond yield, indicating strong valuation attractiveness [7].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the securities industry, suggesting that the sector is poised for recovery and growth due to market conditions and regulatory support [3]. Core Insights - The securities industry is experiencing active trading with increased market volatility, as evidenced by a significant rise in average daily trading volume and a high margin financing balance [3][14]. - The report highlights the trend of declining IPO numbers and sizes, while the scale of additional offerings has increased significantly [22]. - The asset management sector is undergoing a transformation, with a shift towards active management and a decline in channel-based asset management [26]. - The integration of AI technology is expected to enhance operational efficiency and create new business opportunities within the securities industry [55][63]. - The report recommends strategic investments in leading securities firms that are likely to benefit from market rebounds and improved liquidity [3][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Securities Industry Review for 2025 - Active trading persists with heightened market volatility, reflected in a 38% increase in average daily trading volume to 16,373 billion yuan compared to 11,853 billion yuan in 2024 [14]. - Margin financing balance has risen by 19% year-on-year to 18,026 billion yuan [14]. - The number of IPOs has decreased, with 37 companies raising 24.7 billion yuan, a 6% decline from the previous year [22]. - Asset management regulations have led to a decline in channel-based asset management, while collective asset management has seen an increase [26]. 2. Mergers and Acquisitions Driving Supply-Side Reform - Regulatory bodies are encouraging mergers and acquisitions among securities firms to create "aircraft carrier-level" institutions, enhancing competitiveness and market stability [36]. - The report notes that the industry is witnessing an increase in merger activities, particularly among larger and smaller firms, to achieve scale and operational synergies [39]. 3. AI Empowering Securities Firms - The integration of AI is expected to reduce costs and enhance efficiency across existing business lines, while also fostering the development of new financial products and services [55][63]. - The report outlines various applications of AI in enhancing customer service, risk management, and investment advisory services [63][64]. - Financial technology investments are projected to grow significantly, with the securities sector expected to see a compound annual growth rate of 20% in technology spending by 2026 [56].

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨中国银河（601881.SH） [Table_Title] 中国银河 2025 一季报点评：经纪业务随市高增， 自营投资韧性凸显 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年一季度，中国银河业绩维持较快增长。具体来看，经纪业务随市高增，融资业务市场份 额提升；债市震荡中投资收益亮眼，扩表节奏放缓；投行收入快速增长，债券承销份额持续提 升；看好公司作为头部央企券商，受益于扶优限劣与并购重组政策导向，同时投行及资管业务 在新管理层与新战略下有望继续发力。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 戴永飞 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490524070001 SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 中国银河（601881.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 中国银河 2025 2] 一季报点评：经纪业务随市高 增，自营投资韧性凸显 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 中国银河发布 2025 一季报，报告期内实现营业收入 75.6 ...

互换便利工具在去年下半年推出，不少券商陆续获得了参与互换便利的业务资格。不过，究竟有哪些券商实际落地了互换 便利业务？参与额度又有多少？部分券商年报有披露。 有的券商在年报中表示，公司使用互换便利获得的资金持仓股票和股票ETF。还有的券商称，公司主动参与央行第二批互换便 利操作且积极配置A股市场。年报数据显示，有的券商互换便利质押式回购接近50亿元。 买入股票和股票ETF "作为首批获得互换便利业务资格的金融机构，整体参与进度属于同业前列；发挥做市商专业优势，为中小微企业提供专业化 的流动性支持，公司在北交所做市业务中创市场先例，首家通过互换便利账户开展北交所做市业务，向市场传递积极信号。" 申万宏源表示 。 财通证券称， 互换便利作为国家支持资本市场健康发展的增量政策，为资本市场和行业发展带来了重大政策机遇。公司积极 承接政策，获得互换便利业务资格，并在第一时间完成股票增持的首笔交易。据悉，财通证券使用互换便利获得的资金持仓 股票和股票ETF。 东吴证券称， 响应国家政策号召，成功取得互换便利操作资格，主动参与央行第二批互换便利操作且积极配置A股市场。 东方证券 稳妥使用互换便利资金，高效筛选合适的A股标的 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs significantly lowered the US Q1 GDP growth forecast to -0.8% due to an unexpected widening of the trade deficit in March, driven by increased consumer goods imports [1] - Morgan Stanley highlighted that uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve may lead foreign investors to reduce their investments in the US [2] - Pantheon Macroeconomics indicated that the uncertainty from tariffs will limit any significant rebound in the French economy, projecting stagnation for the remainder of the year [3] Group 2 - ING reported that the euro has lost its status as a preferred alternative to the dollar, with most G10 currencies performing better than the euro recently [4] - ING also noted that news of potential reductions in auto tariffs by the Trump administration helped the dollar recover some of its recent losses [5] - Capital Economics stated that the impact of tariffs on the Eurozone economy is expected to intensify, with the economic sentiment index dropping from 95.2 to 93.6 in April [6] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank suggested that the European Central Bank should act more decisively to address increasing supply shocks and rising inflation [8] - Tianfeng Securities projected that the aerospace engine sector may stabilize and recover, with a significant portion of military electronic stocks held by active funds [9] - CITIC Securities reported that the implementation of new tax refund policies for departing travelers could boost domestic consumption, estimating a potential market space of nearly 100 billion [10]

中国银河（601881）证券股份有限公司赵良毕,洪烨近期对润建股份（002929）进行研究并发布了研究报告 《2025Q1营收双位数增长，算力网络生态良好》，给予润建股份买入评级。 证券之星数据中心根据近三年发布的研报数据计算，东北证券韩金呈研究员团队对该股研究较为深入，近三 年预测准确度均值为19.43%，其预测2025年度归属净利润为盈利11.21亿，根据现价换算的预测PE为10.91。 最新盈利预测明细如下： 通信网络基石牢筑，算力网络生态良好。分业务看，2024年公司通信网络与数字网络营业收入占比分别约 49.7%与26.6%，算力网络营业收入同比高增约71.7%。通信网络方面，2024年公司实现运营商业务数字化产 品赋能，在广东、江苏、贵州等多个省份中标，数字网络方面，围绕通信、教育、能源、园区管理、企业管 理等领域，打造超60款智能体应用，取得"某央企知识管理大模型开发服务"等典型项目，能源网络方面，由 于部分项目未达收入确认条件对业绩形成主要拖累，服务与储备的风力、光伏、储能项目装机总容量超 20GW，完成能源行业巡检作业里程超43万公里，新能源巡检作业规模累计超1.7GW，通信光伏、铁塔高温整 ...