Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in polysilicon futures prices entering 2026, with a year-to-date drop of 13.92% as of January 16, 2026, erasing gains since August 2025 and repeatedly falling below the critical threshold of 50,000 yuan/ton [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The trading volume and open interest for polysilicon have sharply decreased, with the weighted index's open interest falling below 90,000 contracts, only about 20% of last year's peak of 444,400 contracts [2][12]. - The recent price drop is attributed to weak supply and demand dynamics, alongside panic selling triggered by rumors of antitrust actions affecting major polysilicon producers [2][4][6]. Policy Impact - A new policy from China's Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration, effective April 1, 2026, will eliminate VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products, which may lead to short-term export demand but is expected to benefit the photovoltaic industry in the long run [4][10]. - In anticipation of this policy, prices for various photovoltaic products have increased, but polysilicon futures have not followed suit, indicating market disruptions [4][8]. Supply and Demand Analysis - January 2026 polysilicon production is estimated at around 107,000 tons, while demand is projected to be less than 80,000 tons, indicating a continued oversupply situation [6][10]. - The production of downstream components, such as battery cells and modules, has also decreased, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [6][10]. Market Sentiment and Speculation - Market rumors regarding antitrust measures have amplified market volatility, leading to a rapid exit of long positions and contributing to the price decline [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that market participants should verify the authenticity of such rumors and consider the fundamental supply-demand conditions before making investment decisions [6][9]. Industry Challenges - The article highlights that regardless of market rumors, polysilicon prices were likely to decline due to the unsustainable price increases seen in 2025, which have not been matched by price increases in other segments of the photovoltaic supply chain [8][9]. - Companies in the downstream photovoltaic sector, such as TCL Zhonghuan, have reported significant losses due to the rising costs of polysilicon, which have not been adequately passed down the supply chain [9][10]. Regulatory Environment - The recent tightening of trading regulations by the exchange aims to curb speculative trading, which has contributed to the decline in trading volume and open interest in polysilicon futures [12][13]. - There are concerns that polysilicon futures could become marginalized, similar to the fate of coal futures, but analysts believe that the strategic importance of the photovoltaic industry will prevent this outcome [12][13].

光伏行业龙头企业2025年业绩预亏潮继续蔓延。1月18日，通威股份和隆基绿能相继披露年度业绩预告，分别预计净亏损90—100亿元和60—65亿元，标志着 行业深度调整仍在持续。 此前，硅料龙头大全能源、组件巨头晶科能源、天合光能已相继披露2025年全年业绩预亏。这些头部企业的集中亏损，直接反映出光伏产业在产能过剩、价 格竞争激烈、海外贸易壁垒加剧等多重压力下，仍处于周期下行的深度调整阶段。 从二级市场表现看，大全能源、通威股份等龙头股纷纷创下近半年新低，反映出资金对光伏板块估值的谨慎态度。隆基绿能在业绩预告中指出，四季度银 浆、硅料成本大幅上涨，显著推升了产品成本，使得企业经营进一步承压。 市场监管总局1月6日的专题约谈会，直指光伏硅料行业"自律联盟"涉嫌垄断，要求暂停所有限产、限价相关的自律行为，意味着行业短暂建立的"反内卷防 线"被击穿，市场重新回到自由竞争状态。 亏损来源各异，产业链全线承压 从具体业务看，龙头企业亏损来源呈现差异化特征。通威股份披露，工业硅业务在产能投产爬坡调试及产品价格持续低迷影响下，导致净利润亏损同比加剧 约9亿元；电池及组件业务销售均价受市场行情影响进一步下跌，硅片-电池-组件业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in polysilicon prices and trading volumes is attributed to weak supply-demand dynamics and market rumors regarding antitrust issues, leading to panic selling among investors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of January 16, polysilicon futures have seen a year-to-date decline of 13.92%, erasing gains since August and frequently falling below the critical threshold of 50,000 yuan/ton [1]. - The trading volume and open interest for polysilicon have significantly decreased, with open interest dropping to around 84,296 contracts, only 20% of last year's peak [9]. - The recent market sentiment has been exacerbated by rumors of antitrust actions against leading polysilicon companies, causing further panic among investors [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - The supply of polysilicon remains high, with January production estimated at around 107,000 tons, while demand is projected to be less than 80,000 tons, indicating a continued oversupply [4]. - Downstream production rates for solar cells and modules have also decreased, reflecting weak end-user demand [4]. - The overall market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, which is pressuring prices and leading to inventory accumulation [4]. Group 3: Policy Impact - The Chinese government announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, which may create short-term export demand but is expected to benefit the industry in the long run [2]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to alleviate price competition within the photovoltaic industry, but the recent price surge in polysilicon has not been matched by increases in other segments, leading to operational pressures on downstream companies [6][7]. Group 4: Trading Regulations - The recent decline in trading volumes is partly due to the exchange implementing stricter risk control measures to curb speculative trading, which has raised transaction costs and reduced arbitrage opportunities [9][10]. - Concerns have been raised about the potential for polysilicon futures to become a "zombie product" similar to coal futures if trading continues to cool [9]. - Despite current challenges, the futures market is expected to remain relevant due to the strategic importance of the photovoltaic industry in China [10].

北京商报讯（记者 王蔓蕾）1月18日，通威股份（600438）披露公告称，公司预计2025年年度实现归属 净利润约为-100亿元至-90亿元。 通威股份表示，报告期内，光伏新增装机规模总体维持同比增长，但下半年明显放缓，行业阶段性供应 过剩问题尚未缓解，产业链各环节开工率下行，白银等部分核心原材料价格持续上涨，产品价格同比继 续下跌，行业经营压力仍然显著。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tongwei Co., Ltd. expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately -90.00 billion to -100.00 billion yuan for the year 2025, primarily due to industry challenges such as supply surplus, rising raw material prices, and declining product prices [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net loss of approximately -75 to -80 billion yuan from operations, which is an increase in operational losses of about 12 to 17 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1] - The industrial silicon segment is expected to exacerbate net losses by approximately 9 billion yuan due to production ramp-up and low market prices [1] - The polysilicon business, despite a decline in sales volume and average selling price, managed to reduce operational losses by about 6 billion yuan through optimized production and cost reduction efforts [1] Market Conditions - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a slowdown in new installations in the second half of the year, contributing to significant operational pressure [1] - The average selling price of battery and component businesses has further declined, leading to an increase in net losses by approximately 12 billion yuan [1] Asset Impairment - The company has recognized long-term asset impairments totaling approximately 15 to 20 billion yuan, an increase of about 7 to 12 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to technological changes and market demand fluctuations [1] - Impairments include around 10 billion yuan related to certain photovoltaic power station businesses [1] Strategic Outlook - Despite current industry challenges, the company remains optimistic about the photovoltaic sector's growth potential and is committed to technological development and cost efficiency [1] - The company maintains strong core competencies in technology, cost management, and operations, with sufficient cash reserves to navigate market volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of the parent company for the year 2025, estimated between 9 billion to 10 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net loss of approximately 7.5 billion to 8 billion yuan due to operational reasons, which represents an increase in losses of about 1.2 billion to 1.7 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1] - The industrial silicon business is expected to exacerbate the net profit loss attributable to shareholders by approximately 900 million yuan due to capacity ramp-up and ongoing low market prices [1] - Despite a decline in sales volume and average selling price in the polysilicon business, the company managed to reduce losses by about 600 million yuan year-on-year through optimized operating rates and cost reduction efforts, achieving operational profitability in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Business Segment Analysis - The battery and module business has seen a further decline in average selling prices due to market conditions, contributing to an increase in net profit loss attributable to shareholders by approximately 1.2 billion yuan [1] - The photovoltaic power station, feed, and industrial chain businesses are performing steadily, continuing to contribute profits to the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 9 billion to 10 billion yuan for the year 2025, reflecting a significant operational challenge in its business segments [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net loss of approximately 7.5 billion to 8 billion yuan from operations for the reporting period, which represents an increase in operational losses of about 1.2 billion to 1.7 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1] - The industrial silicon business is expected to exacerbate the net profit loss attributable to shareholders by approximately 900 million yuan due to capacity ramp-up and ongoing low market prices [1] - Despite a decline in sales volume and average selling price in the polysilicon business, the company managed to reduce operational losses by about 600 million yuan year-on-year, aided by optimized production rates and improved production processes [1] Group 2: Business Segment Analysis - The battery and module business has seen a further decline in average selling prices due to market conditions, contributing to an increase in net profit loss attributable to shareholders by approximately 1.2 billion yuan [1] - The photovoltaic power station, feed, and industrial chain businesses are performing steadily, continuing to contribute profits to the company [1]

| 股票代码：600438 | 股票简称：通威股份 公告编号：2026-003 | | --- | --- | | 债券代码：110085 | 债券简称：通 22 转债 | 通威股份有限公司 公司预计 2025 年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润约为-90 亿元至 -100 亿元。 扣除非经常性损益后，公司预计 2025 年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的 净利润约为-90 亿元至-100 亿元。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2025 年年度业绩预告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 三、本期业绩预亏的主要原因 报告期内，光伏新增装机规模总体维持同比增长，但下半年明显放缓，行业 阶段性供应过剩问题尚未缓解，产业链各环节开工率下行，白银等部分核心原材 料价格持续上涨，产品价格同比继续下跌，行业经营压力仍然显著。 公司报告期内经营性导致归属上市公司所有者的净利润亏损约 75-80 亿元， 同比去年经营性增加亏损约 12-17 亿元。其中，公司工业硅业务在 2025 年受产能 投产爬坡调试以 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the power equipment industry, particularly in the renewable energy sector, with significant investments and technological advancements expected to drive growth [1][2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the State Grid's investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous plan [2]. - The report emphasizes the stability in polysilicon prices and the continuous rise in battery component prices, with N-type battery prices increasing to 0.40 yuan per watt [15][16]. - The report identifies three key areas of focus: supply-side reform leading to price increases in the industry chain, long-term growth opportunities from new technologies, and industrialization opportunities from perovskite GW-level layouts [16]. Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Generation 1.1 Photovoltaics - Polysilicon prices remain stable, while battery component prices are on the rise, with N-type battery prices reaching an average of 0.40 yuan per watt [15]. - The report notes that leading component companies are responding to industry self-discipline by raising component prices, with distributed sales prices reaching 0.72 yuan per watt [15][16]. - Key companies to watch include Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly, LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, and Trina Solar [16]. 1.2 Wind Power & Grid - The UK AR7 offshore wind auction results exceeded expectations, with a total scale of approximately 8.4GW, validating the upward trend in European offshore wind [17]. - The State Grid's investment is expected to enhance transmission capacity significantly, addressing bottlenecks in renewable energy delivery [18]. - Companies to focus on include Goldwind, Yunda Wind Power, Mingyang Smart Energy, and Sany Heavy Energy [18]. 1.3 Hydrogen & Energy Storage - By 2025, the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles in China are projected to reach 7,797 units, reflecting a 44% year-on-year increase [20]. - The report anticipates that new energy storage installations will reach 58.6GW/175.3GWh by 2025, with significant growth expected in the energy storage sector [21]. - Key players in the hydrogen sector include Shuangliang Energy, Huadian Heavy Industries, and Shenghui Technology [20]. 2. New Energy Vehicles - Solid-state batteries are gaining traction, with several automakers making progress towards mass production by 2026 [29]. - Companies such as BYD, Changan Automobile, and Chery are expected to achieve significant milestones in solid-state battery technology [29]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Xiamen Tungsten, Hailiang Co., and Nanjing Advanced Lithium Battery [29]. 3. Industry Trends - The report notes a 0.4% increase in the new energy equipment sector from January 12 to January 16, 2026, with a cumulative increase of 5.3% since the beginning of the year [12]. - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a 3.52% increase, while the wind power equipment sector experienced a decline of 1.28% during the same period [13].

Core Viewpoint - The silicon material industry is experiencing significant production adjustments, with major companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd. reportedly halting production, leading to a potential supply-demand rebalancing in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Production Adjustments - Tongwei Co., Ltd. has been adjusting its production rates dynamically based on market conditions to optimize economic performance, although specific execution details remain unclear [2]. - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's silicon division reported that some leading companies are gradually halting production, with plans to continue for up to six months, which may reduce monthly silicon production to between 70,000 and 90,000 tons by Q1 2026 [2]. - In the first half of 2025, there are nine operational multi-crystalline silicon producers in China with a total capacity of 3.35 million tons per year, but production is expected to drop by 44.1% year-on-year to 597,000 tons, resulting in an operating rate of 38.6% to 44.1% [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Market Conditions - Despite production cuts, the high inventory levels in the silicon material sector remain unchanged, with an estimated inventory of 290,000 tons by the end of 2025, close to three months of consumption [3]. - The market is currently in a critical phase of supply-demand rebalancing, with stable silicon wafer production and slight consumption of social inventory providing essential support for the market [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Daqo New Energy Co., Ltd. has forecasted a net loss of 1 to 1.3 billion yuan for 2025, a significant reduction from over 2.7 billion yuan in the previous year, attributed to changes in asset impairment factors [4]. - Although there is an anticipated recovery in multi-crystalline silicon prices starting in Q3 2025 due to ongoing policy guidance, the industry still faces challenges from high inventory levels and weak demand [5].