在2025年下半年炙手可热的多晶硅期货，进入2026年后急剧 遇 冷 。 截 至 1 月 16 日 ， 多 晶 硅 主 连 合 约 年 内 跌 幅 已 经 高 达 13.92%，不但将去年8月份以来的涨幅全部抹杀，更是数度 失守5万元/吨这个重要关口。 作者：邹永勤 封图：图虫创意 俗语说"三十年河东，三十年河西"，但对于多晶硅而言，这个转换周期可能只需要半年。 在2025年下半年炙手可热的多晶硅期货，进入2026年后急剧遇冷。截至1月16日，多晶硅主连合 约年内跌幅已经高达13.92%，不但将去年8月份以来的涨幅全部抹杀，更是数度失守5万元/吨这 个重要关口。 相较于价格的跌势，其交投的萎缩程度更大。本周（指1月12日至1月16日，下同），多晶硅加权 指数的持仓量连续多天低于9万手，仅为去年高峰时（44.44万手）的两成左右。 "一方面，多晶硅的供需面确实较弱；另一方面，流传的反垄断相关消息导致多头恐慌平仓。"广 发期货研究所分析师纪元菲在接受经济观察报记者采访时表示，上述两大因素共振引发市场短期情 绪宣泄，再叠加低流动性，从而导致近期多晶硅价格多次跌破5万元/吨这个关口。 被市场信息"撞"了腰 与此同时， ...

记者 邹永勤 被市场信息"撞"了腰 1月9日，中国财政部、国家税务总局发布《关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告》，决定自2026年 4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。对于这一政策，纪元菲指出，短期来看或有抢出口需求， 长期来看有利于光伏行业出清。 万得数据显示，在抢出口预期下，本周光伏产业链的品种普遍涨价，其中Topcon组件(210mm,分布式)的 平均价由0.72元/瓦涨至0.77元/瓦，涨幅为6.94%；N型多晶硅料的平均价由5.49万元/吨涨至5.51万元/ 吨，涨幅仅为0.27%。 相较于现货，多晶硅期价的表现更为逊色。本周多晶硅主连合约不涨反跌，以5.02万元/吨报收，跌幅 为2.14%。此前在光伏产业链领涨的多晶硅，在本周涨价潮中明显落于下风，其中很大一个原因是近期 市场信息扰动。 据媒体报道，国家市场监管总局于1月6日约谈了包括通威股份（600438.SH）等在内的多家多晶硅龙头 企业以及中国光伏行业协会。会议不但通报了有关垄断风险，更要求上述约谈企业提交书面整改措施。 "消息是在1月7日传出的，1月8日多晶硅全部合约均大幅低开并低走，并最终以跌停报收。"纪元菲表 示，虽然到目前为止 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices are oscillating. It is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand situation in December, with prices fluctuating in the range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the support at 8000 yuan/ton and coal price changes [1]. Polysilicon - Spot prices are stable, and the main contract has risen. Although new delivery brands are beneficial for increasing deliverable volume and warehouse receipts, considering weak demand and a large decline in production, polysilicon futures may still oscillate at a high level, and the spot is still under pressure [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is oscillating strongly in the game between strong cost support and weak demand. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillation, with the main contract reference range moving down to 2400 - 2700 yuan/ton. Aluminum is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum oscillating in the range of 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - Market sentiment is positive, and the fundamentals are strong. It is expected that tin prices will maintain a strong trend throughout the year, and a bullish view on tin prices is maintained [6]. Zinc - With the decline of TC, the supply pressure is relieved, and the short - term price has limited downward space. The export of refined zinc drives the spot to tighten, boosting domestic zinc prices. The short - term Shanghai zinc price trend may be stronger than that of London zinc, and the main contract should focus on the support at 23000 - 23200 [8]. Copper - In the short term, the imbalance of global copper supply and inventory drives copper prices to rise rapidly, and price fluctuations may intensify. In the long term, the supply - demand contradiction of copper still exists, supporting the gradual upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices [10]. Nickel - Macro factors are temporarily stable. After the valuation repair of nickel prices, the price driving force weakens. In the medium term, the loose fundamentals restrict the upward space of prices. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 116000 - 120000 [13]. Stainless Steel - Macro factors are temporarily stable, the supply pressure eases slightly, but the demand in the off - season is weak, and inventory reduction is not smooth. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract operating range of 12400 - 12800 [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is running strongly. Although the fundamentals have not changed much, the market is affected by news of slower - than - expected upstream resumption of production. In the short term, it may maintain a strong oscillation under the drive of capital sentiment [18]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Industrial Silicon**: On December 11, the prices of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged compared with the previous day, while the basis of each variety declined [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The average prices of N - type re - feeding materials, N - type granular silicon, and N - type silicon wafers - 210mm remained unchanged on December 11, while the average price of N - type silicon wafers - 210R increased by 4.24% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: On December 12, the prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in various regions increased by 0.46% - 0.47% compared with the previous day, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in various regions also showed an upward trend [3]. - **Aluminum**: On December 12, the price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.55% compared with the previous day, and the average price of alumina in various regions showed a downward trend [4]. - **Tin**: On December 12, the price of SMM 1 tin increased by 1.04% compared with the previous day, and the SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 66.67% [6]. - **Zinc**: On December 12, the price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.17% compared with the previous day, and the import profit and loss improved [8]. - **Copper**: On December 12, the prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper, SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper, and SMM wet - process copper increased by 1.05% - 1.22% compared with the previous day, and the import profit and loss worsened [10]. - **Nickel**: On December 12, the prices of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, and 1 imported nickel decreased by 0.21% - 0.26% compared with the previous day, and the import profit and loss of futures worsened [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: On December 12, the price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.39% [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On December 12, the average prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. increased to varying degrees compared with the previous day [18]. Month - to - Month Price Differences - **Industrial Silicon**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. showed significant changes on December 11, with some increasing by more than 100% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The price differences between the main contract, current - month - to - first - continuous, etc. changed on December 11, with the current - month - to - first - continuous increasing by 1166.67% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price differences between AL 2512 - 2601, AL 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [4]. - **Tin**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [6]. - **Zinc**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [8]. - **Copper**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [10]. - **Nickel**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2601 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [18]. Fundamental Data - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, the national industrial silicon output decreased by 11.17% month - on - month, and the outputs of Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly. The outputs of organic silicon DMC and regenerative aluminum alloy increased, while the outputs of polysilicon and the export volume of industrial silicon decreased [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In November, the polysilicon output decreased by 14.48% month - on - month, the import volume increased by 11.96%, and the export volume decreased by 27.99%. The silicon wafer output decreased by 10.35% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In November, the output of regenerative aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74% month - on - month, the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%, and the output of scrap aluminum increased by 11.45%. In October, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 7.06%, and the export volume increased by 31.49% [3]. - **Aluminum**: In November, the alumina output decreased by 4.44% month - on - month, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output decreased by 2.82%, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum output decreased by 3.50%. In October, the electrolytic aluminum import volume increased by 0.61%, and the export volume decreased by 15.18% [4]. - **Tin**: In October, the tin ore import volume increased by 33.49%, the SMM refined tin output increased by 53.09%, the refined tin import volume decreased by 58.55%, and the export volume decreased by 15.33% [6]. - **Zinc**: In November, the refined zinc output decreased by 3.56% month - on - month. In October, the refined zinc import volume decreased by 16.94%, and the export volume increased by 243.79% [8]. - **Copper**: In November, the electrolytic copper output increased by 1.05% month - on - month. In October, the electrolytic copper import volume decreased by 15.61% [10]. - **Nickel**: In November, the Chinese refined nickel output decreased by 9.38% month - on - month, and the refined nickel import volume decreased by 65.66% [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: In November, the output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel decreased by 0.72%, and the output of Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel increased by 0.36%. The stainless steel import volume increased by 3.18%, and the export volume decreased by 14.43% [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, the lithium carbonate output increased by 3.35% month - on - month, the demand increased by 5.11%, the import volume increased by 21.86%, and the export volume increased by 63.05% [18]. Inventory Changes - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly factory - warehouse inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased slightly, the weekly social inventory increased by 0.54%, the daily warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 11.40%, and the non - warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.28% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.69%, the silicon wafer inventory increased by 9.39%, and the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 7.58% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The weekly social inventory of regenerative aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.08%, the daily inventory in Foshan decreased by 0.28%, the daily inventory in Ningbo increased by 3.91%, and the daily inventory in Wuxi decreased by 28.57% [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 2.01%, the Chinese aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 3.72%, the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory increased by 0.15%, the alumina plant's in - house inventory increased by 1.72%, the alumina port inventory increased by 2.36%, the LME inventory decreased by 0.39% [4]. - **Tin**: The SHEF weekly inventory increased by 7.96%, the social inventory increased by 2.39%, the SHEF daily warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 1.78%, and the LME daily inventory increased by 1.09% [6]. - **Zinc**: The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 8.62%, and the LME inventory increased by 0.92% [8]. - **Copper**: The domestic social inventory increased by 2.58%, the bonded - area inventory decreased by 2.58%, the SHFE inventory decreased by 9.22%, the LME inventory decreased by 0.42%, the COMEX inventory increased by 0.48%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 8.74% [10]. - **Nickel**: The SHFE inventory increased by 4.23%, the social inventory increased by 2.71%, the bonded - area inventory remained unchanged, the LME inventory decreased by 0.09%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.86% [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.69%, the 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.08%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.20% [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 23.36%, the downstream inventory decreased by 21.13%, and the smelter inventory decreased by 27.19% [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In November, the supply and demand of the industrial silicon market will both decline, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still expected to be inventory accumulation pressure. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - It is expected to maintain a high - level range oscillation. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory accumulation expected in each link, but strong spot support. The backwardation market structure will remain. For trading strategies, try to go long at around 50,000 for futures; hold or take profit on sell put options for options, and consider buying straddles if volatility decreases [2]. Tin - With strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Hold previous long positions and pay attention to macro - end changes and the recovery of supply in Myanmar [4]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Whether the market can rebound depends on the actual production cut scale of existing enterprises and the inventory inflection point. Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton. Focus on overseas monetary policy trends and domestic inventory destocking rhythm [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The supply - side pressure has gradually eased, and the demand side has shown a structural improvement. However, the terminal demand has remained stable, and there is limited upward momentum. The main reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices. Pay attention to macro - drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations. The main reference range is 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The macro - situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals remain weak. However, due to upstream production cuts and low valuations, the market may oscillate and repair. In the medium term, the abundant supply will still restrict the upward space of prices. The main reference range is 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and the change in downstream procurement rhythm [11]. Stainless Steel - The policy - driven effect is difficult to be directly transmitted in the short term, cost support is weakening, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. There is still pressure on the supply - side steel mill production schedule and social inventory, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, with the main operating range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main reference range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan. Although the market has a bullish sentiment, there is limited substantial new driving force [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices and Basis - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable on November 25, 2025, while the basis of some varieties decreased. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 20 yuan to 540 yuan, with a decline of 3.57% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, while the price of battery cells decreased. The main contract of polysilicon futures closed at 54,730 yuan/ton, up 1,415 yuan/ton [2]. - **Tin**: The spot prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 1,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.58%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 18.32 US dollars/ton, with a rise of 19.15% [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.37%. The price of alumina in various regions remained stable [6]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 20 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.09%. The import loss was - 4,312 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.69 yuan/ton [7]. - **Copper**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 375 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.43%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 378.62 yuan/ton, with a rise of 13.42% [8]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 800 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.68%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.22% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable on November 26, 2025. The refined - scrap price difference of some regions changed, such as the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton, with a rise of 4.57% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained stable at 12,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, while the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 100 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.79% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. decreased slightly on November 26, 2025. For example, the price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.11% [15]. Monthly Spreads - Different contracts of various metals showed different changes in monthly spreads. For example, in industrial silicon, the spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601 remained unchanged; in tin, the spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 450 yuan/ton, with a rise of 107.14% [1][4]. Fundamental Data Production - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, the national industrial silicon production is expected to decline to around 400,000 tons. In October, the national industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The production in Xinjiang increased by 15.94%, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly production in October was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%. The weekly production was 27,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.12% [2]. - **Tin**: In October, SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09%. The average operating rate was 66.81%, a month - on - month increase of 53.23% [4]. - **Aluminum**: In October, alumina production was 778,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%; electrolytic aluminum production was 374,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [6]. - **Zinc**: In October, refined zinc production was 617,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% [7]. - **Copper**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1,091,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62% [8]. - **Nickel**: In October, China's refined nickel production was 35,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 645,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 286,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 1,787,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73% [15]. Import and Export - Different metals have different import and export trends. For example, the import of refined tin in October decreased by 58.55% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.33% month - on - month; the import of electrolytic aluminum in October increased by 0.61% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.18% month - on - month [4][6]. Operating Rate - The operating rates of different industries also vary. For example, the national operating rate of industrial silicon in October was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 9.98%; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 52.10%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95% [1][6]. Inventory Changes - Different metals have different inventory trends. For example, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.37% week - on - week; the SHEF inventory of tin decreased by 0.46% week - on - week [1][4].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Dark-colored rubber shows an inventory accumulation inflection point, and with weak macro sentiment, rubber prices have further declined. Future focus should be on raw material output during the peak production season in the main producing areas and macro changes. If raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if not, the rubber price is expected to fluctuate between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On November 5, prices of various natural rubber products showed different trends, with some decreasing and others remaining stable. For example, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 250 yuan to 14,350 yuan, a decrease of 1.71% [1]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5 yuan to 150 yuan, a decrease of 3.23% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, production in Thailand, Indonesia, and other countries changed, with Thailand's production decreasing by 5.45% to 451.50. Tire production and export data also showed fluctuations. For example, domestic tire production in August increased by 9.10% to 10,295.40 million pieces [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber increased, while the出库 rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao decreased [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash is trending weakly. There is obvious over - supply, and the market is under pressure. In the medium - term, demand will continue to be based on rigid needs, and the market will face further pressure without actual capacity withdrawal or load reduction. It is advisable to take a bearish approach in operation [3]. - **Glass**: The news of production line shutdown in Shahe area has a short - term emotional impact on the market. In the long - term, there will be production line restart, which will increase supply pressure. Although there is some demand expectation during the peak season, the glass industry still needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. There is short - term support for the market, and short - term long opportunities for low - level rebounds can be captured [3]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On November 5, glass prices in different regions showed little change, with only the South China quotation decreasing by 10 yuan to 1,190 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.83%. The 01 basis increased by 8 yuan to 33 yuan, an increase of 32.00% [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: Soda ash prices in different regions remained stable, and the 01 - 4 spread decreased by 6 yuan to 105 yuan, a decrease of 5.41% [3]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production and float glass and photovoltaic glass melting volume data showed different trends. Soda ash production decreased slightly, and photovoltaic glass melting volume decreased by 0.84% [3]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased, while soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased [3]. - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate data showed negative growth in new construction area, completion area, and sales area, with the sales area decreasing by 6.50% [3]. Group 3: Log Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The log futures market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Although the disk price is at a relatively low level and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets provides some support, the market is still expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On November 5, log futures prices showed an upward trend. For example, the price of the log 2511 contract increased by 2 yuan to 778.5 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.26%. Spot prices of some radiata pine and spruce in ports remained stable [4]. - **Import Cost Calculation**: The import theoretical cost increased by 6.84 yuan to 812.97 yuan, an increase of 1% [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, with the expected arrival of 17 ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports from November 3 - 9, an increase of 2 ships and 16% in volume compared to the previous week. Demand is slightly declining, with the average daily log出库 volume decreasing by 0.16 million cubic meters to 6.28 million cubic meters as of October 31 [4]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Although there are expectations of supply contraction, it is expected to have little short - term impact. The market still faces inventory accumulation pressure in November, but there is cost support at the bottom. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan per ton. If the price drops to around 8,500 yuan per ton, long positions can be considered [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis**: On November 5, spot prices of various industrial silicon products remained stable, and the basis of different benchmarks changed. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon decreased by 135 yuan to 430 yuan, a decrease of 23.89% [5]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: Spreads between different contracts changed. For example, the 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 25 yuan to - 400 yuan, an increase of 6.25% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and production in different regions also showed different trends. For example, Xinjiang's production increased by 15.94% to 23.56 million tons [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Inventory in different regions and types showed different trends. For example, Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.05 million tons to 3.46 million tons, an increase of 1.47% [5]. Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In November, the supply pressure is decreasing, but the demand is also decreasing, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. There is still a risk of inventory accumulation. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in a high - level range. In trading, it is advisable to try long positions when the futures price returns to the lower end of the range, sell put options around 50,000 in the options market, and hold photovoltaic ETFs, new energy ETFs, or related stocks in the equity market [6]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On November 5, spot prices of N - type polysilicon products were mostly stable, and the N - type material basis increased by 360 yuan to - 1,155 yuan, an increase of 23.76% [6]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - monthly Spreads**: The futures price decreased by 360 yuan to 53,355 yuan per ton, and the spreads between different contracts changed significantly [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly and monthly polysilicon and silicon wafer production, import, and export data showed different trends. For example, weekly polysilicon production decreased by 4.41% to 2.82 million tons, while monthly production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased, and the polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 140 to 9,730 [6].

Group 1: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The substantial support policies such as "anti - involution" in the polysilicon market have not been implemented in time, and the new energy - consumption national standard has limited impact on short - term supply and demand. The supply - side regulation effect is less than expected, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. The inventory of downstream component links is high, and prices are loosening. Future attention should be paid to national - level policies on capacity clearance and industry procurement, as well as the actual start - up rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, and the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon materials remained stable on September 22 compared with September 19, while the N - type material basis (average price) increased by 3420.00% [1]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 3.24% from September 19 to September 22, and the spread between different months showed various changes [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.64%, while monthly production increased by 23.31%. Monthly polysilicon import decreased by 9.63%, and net export increased by 94.25%. Weekly and monthly silicon wafer production increased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.93% [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon increases, and the supply - demand balance gradually becomes loose. The expected batch production reduction of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the flat - dry season is at the end of October, and the supply surplus is more obvious in October and narrows in November. The cost increase during the flat - dry season in the southwest boosts market sentiment. In the short term, industrial silicon has insufficient upward driving force, and the price may turn to oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon increased on September 22 compared with September 19, and the basis also showed significant changes [2]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of industrial silicon futures contracts showed various changes [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly national and regional industrial silicon production increased, and the national and regional start - up rates also increased. The production of organic silicon DMC and polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. Industrial silicon exports increased [2]. - **Inventory Change**: The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. Social inventory and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly, and contract inventory decreased slightly [2]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures market is weak. Although the manufacturer's inventory has decreased recently, the inventory has actually transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The weekly production remains high, and there is still an over - supply situation compared with the current rigid demand. In the medium term, there is no significant increase in downstream capacity, so the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. Attention can be paid to the implementation of policies and the load - regulation situation of alkali plants. It is advisable to short on rebounds [4]. - **Glass**: The glass futures market is weak. The spot market trading has become dull, and the inventory of some middle - stream areas remains high without obvious reduction. In the long - term, as the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Attention can be paid to the implementation of regional policies and the inventory - replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. In the short term, sentiment - driven factors may drive the spot market to improve, and the sustainability needs to be tracked [4]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in different regions remained stable, and the prices of glass futures contracts decreased slightly [4]. - **Soda - Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable, and the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased [4]. - **Supply**: The soda ash start - up rate and weekly production decreased, the float - glass daily melting volume decreased slightly, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda - ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased, while the soda - ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased. The glass factory's soda - ash inventory days remained unchanged [4]. - **Real - estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real - estate all showed different degrees of change [4]. Group 4: Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - On the supply side, the expected increase in future supply weakens the raw - material price and cost support, but the typhoon weather has raised concerns about short - term supply release. The pre - festival inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, and the inventory - reduction rhythm of natural rubber spot inventory has slowed down. On the demand side, although some enterprises still face shortages, the overall shipment performance is less than expected, and some enterprises' inventory may increase. Affected by the typhoon weather, the short - term rubber price will fluctuate strongly, with the 01 contract price ranging from 15000 - 16500 yuan/ton. Future attention should be paid to the raw - material output during the peak season in the main production areas and the impact of the La Nina phenomenon on supply. If the raw - material supply is smooth, the price may decline further; otherwise, it will continue to operate within the range [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of some rubber varieties remained stable, while the basis and non - standard price difference changed [5]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of rubber futures contracts showed various changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, and China in July showed different trends. The start - up rate of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased slightly. The domestic tire production in August increased, while the tire export decreased. The import of natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded - area inventory and the上期所 factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in the bonded and general - trade warehouses in Qingdao changed [5]. Group 5: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The log futures market oscillated. The spot price of the main standard delivery products remained unchanged, and the inventory decreased significantly. The demand (outbound volume) decreased, while the supply (expected arrival of New Zealand logs) increased. As the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season approaches, attention should be paid to whether the outbound volume improves significantly after entering the seasonal peak season. The current daily outbound volume is about 60,000 cubic meters, but it has not exceeded 70,000 cubic meters. The price below 800 yuan/cubic meter has high "receiving value". In the current pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", it is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: The log futures price oscillated, and the spot price of main standard delivery products remained unchanged [7]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate and import theoretical cost changed slightly [7]. - **Port Shipment and Departure Ship Number**: The port shipment volume and departure ship number from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased [7]. - **Main Port Inventory and Daily Outbound Volume**: The national coniferous log inventory decreased, and the daily outbound volume decreased [7].

Core Insights - The overall industry sentiment shows an upward trend in sectors such as steel, power equipment, electronics, food and beverage, environmental protection, and retail, while sectors like oil and petrochemicals, machinery, light manufacturing, home appliances, automotive, banking, real estate, and public utilities are experiencing a downward trend [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of specific industries such as specialized equipment, shipping ports, railways, airports, packaging, motorcycles, engineering machinery, and various health and energy sectors for investment opportunities in the upcoming weeks [1][9] - The investment strategy focuses on three main directions: breakthroughs in technology AI+, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the continued rise of undervalued dividends, with a cautionary note on market volatility and the need for a steady approach [1] Industry Performance Tracking Upstream Sector - In the basic chemical sector, the weekly settlement price for soda ash is 1336.0 yuan/ton, up 6.54% week-on-week [19] - The price index for hardware tools and abrasives is 125.17 points, down 0.11% week-on-week [20] - The average price of Topcon components is 0.7 yuan/watt, up 4.2% week-on-week [20] Midstream Sector - The new order volume in the defense and military industry increased by 62.14% month-on-month, reaching 2,703,016 tons [20] - The average price of DRAM DDR3 (4Gb) is 1.74 USD, up 3.08% week-on-week [21] - The cumulative investment in power grid construction reached 291.1 billion yuan, up 42.71% month-on-month [20] Downstream Sector - The average price of meat chicken seedlings is 3.13 yuan per chick, up 21.79% week-on-week [1] - The average price of white cardboard is 4010 yuan/ton, down 2.43% week-on-week [1] - The passenger volume of the Suzhou subway is 2.156 million, up 27.57% week-on-week [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in polysilicon futures prices indicates a volatile market, with prices reaching a peak of 45,850.0 yuan and currently at 45,345.0 yuan, reflecting a 2.65% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - New Lake Futures suggests that the polysilicon market will primarily experience range-bound fluctuations, with stable supply and slight production increases expected in North China [2] - Donghai Futures views the polysilicon market as showing a strong upward trend, with recent price increases in N-type and P-type materials, indicating a resilient market despite recent price drops [3] - Jin Xin Futures notes that the polysilicon market is transitioning from an upward trend to high-level fluctuations, emphasizing the need for investors to monitor policy changes and supply-demand dynamics closely [4] Group 2: Price Trends - The latest N-type polysilicon price is quoted at 47,000 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.1%, while P-type material is priced at 30,500 yuan/ton [3] - Recent price increases in N-type silicon wafers and battery components suggest a continued upward pressure on polysilicon prices, despite some short-term volatility [3] - The market is currently experiencing a low level of downstream demand, with no new orders being signed, which may affect future price stability [2]

Group 1 - The main contract for polysilicon futures experienced fluctuations, reaching a peak of 43,250.0 yuan, and closed at 42,945.0 yuan with a rise of 1.50% [1] - Various institutions have differing views on the future of polysilicon prices, with some expecting a potential correction while others maintain a bullish outlook [2] - The supply side of polysilicon shows an overall increase in production, but some companies are undergoing maintenance, leading to a mixed impact on capacity [2][3] Group 2 - The current macroeconomic environment shows a positive CPI and a weakening PPI, which may influence market expectations [2] - The demand side is under pressure due to reduced production schedules in downstream solar component manufacturing, despite recent price recoveries [2] - The operating rate for polysilicon in June was reported at 35.47%, with a year-on-year production decrease of 38% but a month-on-month increase of 3% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Glass and Soda Ash - Yesterday, the soda ash futures market sentiment weakened, with the 09 contract dropping about 30 points. Although the overall market sentiment had improved earlier, the supply - demand pattern of soda ash remains in surplus, with continuous inventory accumulation. It is recommended to watch for opportunities to short on rebounds [1]. - The glass futures market sentiment declined yesterday, while the spot market remained strong. Currently, it is the off - season, and the industry needs capacity clearance. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. Logs - Yesterday, the log futures market fluctuated slightly stronger. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand due to the off - season for demand and seasonal reduction in supply from New Zealand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy expectations [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 150 - 200 yuan/ton, and the futures price rose by 90 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase. In the short - term, the price will fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline due to the increase in warehouse receipts [3]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price stabilized, and the futures price increased. There is still room for the futures price to catch up with the spot price. The market has a wait - and - see attitude, and there are both positive and negative factors. Attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [4]. Natural Rubber - The natural rubber price rebounded due to macro - sentiment, but the fundamental situation is still weak. It is recommended to short at the price range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to raw material supply and US tariff changes [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price and Spread - Glass: The prices in North China, East China, and South China remained unchanged, while the price in Central China increased by 30 yuan/ton with a 2.80% increase. The 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased by 1.35% and 2.81% respectively. The 05 basis increased by 17.53% [1]. - Soda Ash: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased by 0.53% and 2.06% respectively. The 05 basis increased by 17.95% [1]. Supply - Soda ash: The operating rate and weekly output remained unchanged. The float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.38%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 2.87%, while soda ash factory inventory and delivery warehouse inventory increased by 2.98% and 4.39% respectively. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [1]. Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 2.99%, construction area decreased by 7.56%, completion area increased by 15.67%, and sales area increased by 12.13% [1]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures: The 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts increased slightly, while the 2507 contract decreased slightly. The basis of the 09, 11, and 01 contracts decreased [2]. - Spot prices: The prices of most spot logs remained unchanged, except for a 1.39% decrease in the price of 4A small radiata pine in Taicang Port [2]. Supply - Monthly supply: Port shipments increased by 2.12%, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 8.62% [2]. Inventory - Weekly inventory: The national inventory decreased by 0.31%, with a 1.66% decrease in Shandong and a 1.93% increase in Jiangsu [2]. Demand - Weekly demand: The daily average outbound volume decreased by 12% nationwide, with a 9% decrease in Shandong and a 14% decrease in Jiangsu [2]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The prices of East China oxygen - passed S15530 and Xinjiang 99 - grade industrial silicon increased, while the basis of some varieties decreased [3]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of 2508 - 2509, 2509 - 2510, and 2512 - 2601 increased significantly, while the spread of 2511 - 2512 decreased significantly [3]. Fundamental Data - In April, the national output and operating rate decreased, while the output and operating rate in Yunnan and Sichuan increased. In May, the output of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy increased [3]. Inventory Change - The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 17.46%, and the social inventory decreased slightly. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.34% [3]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The prices of N - type granular silicon decreased slightly, and the basis of N - type and cauliflower - type decreased [4]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The PS2506 contract increased by 1.69%. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [4]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: The output of silicon wafers and polysilicon decreased. Monthly: The polysilicon output increased, and the import and export volumes changed [4]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 1.47%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 5.67% [4]. Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The prices of some rubber varieties increased slightly, and the basis and non - standard spread changed [5]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.69%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 16.67% [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the output in Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China increased. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased, and the domestic tire output decreased slightly. The tire export volume increased [5]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory increased slightly, and the warehouse receipt inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased significantly [5].