Core Insights - The ultimate battlefield of marketing is shifting from traditional venues to consumer mindset, with brands needing to adapt to new game rules to rewrite the competitive landscape [1][3] Group 1: Traditional Marketing Challenges - The traditional Spring Festival marketing strategy in the liquor industry is facing diminishing returns, as brands like Gujinggongjiu experience reduced brand search index despite long-term sponsorships [3][4] - The linear thinking characteristic of Newtonian thought leads to a rigid marketing approach, which struggles to adapt to the rapidly changing market dynamics during the Spring Festival [4][5] Group 2: Shift to Quantum Thinking - Quantum thinking, contrasting with Newtonian thought, emphasizes non-linear relationships and the importance of consumer engagement in marketing strategies [5][8] - The transition from a manufacturer-led approach to a consumer co-creation model is essential for liquor brands to thrive in the current market [5][14] Group 3: New Marketing Strategies - "Dimensionality reduction" in marketing is a strategic approach that encourages brands to redefine market demands and focus on consumer needs rather than historical advantages [12][13] - The concept of "one body" between sellers and consumers promotes collaborative value creation, breaking down traditional barriers in marketing [14][15] Group 4: Collaborative Ecosystem - The ultimate goal of Spring Festival marketing should be to achieve co-creation, sharing, and win-win outcomes among brands, channels, consumers, and stakeholders [16][17] - Building an open value creation ecosystem through partnerships and data sharing is crucial for maximizing overall value in the liquor industry [16][17]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a trend of upward movement followed by narrow fluctuations, with volatility initially rising and then declining, indicating a need for digestion of previous gains [1] - The ETF outflows, particularly from the CSI 300, have put pressure on broad indices, with large-cap stocks underperforming compared to small-cap stocks [1] - There is an acceleration in thematic rotation, with some themes experiencing sharp rises and subsequent pullbacks, suggesting a short-term advantage for small-cap and growth stocks, but a need for rebalancing in the future [1] Group 2 - The gold stock recommendation logic for February 2026 includes companies benefiting from AI upgrades, solid growth in nickel powder business, and strong positions in the photovoltaic and alloy powder sectors [17] - Specific companies highlighted include BQX New Materials, which is expected to see rapid growth due to a significant expansion in production capacity and strong demand from major clients [17] - Industrial Fulian is noted for its deep integration with leading clients in the AI server market, with expectations of maintaining high growth rates due to its comprehensive supply chain capabilities [17] Group 3 - Financial data for the recommended stocks shows significant expected growth in earnings per share (EPS) for companies like BQX New Materials and Industrial Fulian, with projected EPS increasing from 0.33 to 2.09 and from 1.17 to 3.27 respectively from 2024 to 2026 [19] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies are also projected to decrease significantly, indicating potential for upward valuation adjustments [19] - Tencent Holdings is expected to see strong growth in advertising revenue and new game releases, contributing to its overall performance in 2026 [18]

Group 1 - The recent surge in the liquor sector, particularly in the baijiu market, saw an overall increase of over 9% on January 29, with notable gains from companies like Kweichow Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao, while some smaller firms hit their daily limit [1] - The increase in demand for Feitian Moutai, especially as the Spring Festival approaches, has led to a rise in its wholesale price, which recently jumped by 1,000 yuan to exceed 1,700 yuan per bottle [1] - Despite the recent price surge, the fundamentals of the baijiu sector have not fully reversed, with the industry facing significant challenges over the past year, including a decline in the stock price index and numerous companies reporting profit warnings [4][6] Group 2 - The baijiu industry has experienced a significant downturn, with the total production of major baijiu companies halving from 2019 to 2024, while sales revenue has paradoxically increased from 561.8 billion yuan to 796.4 billion yuan, indicating a compound annual growth rate of over 7% [7] - The market sentiment has reached a low point, with only 21.1% of surveyed companies reporting an increase in customer numbers, reflecting a shrinking consumer base [9] - The ongoing price inversion phenomenon highlights the supply-demand imbalance and increasing channel pressures within the industry [12] Group 3 - The historical significance of baijiu as a cultural symbol is being challenged by recent market adjustments, which are shifting focus back to its consumption attributes [17][18] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with a concentration of market share among leading companies, as evidenced by the CR6 firms' profit share rising from 55% in 2014 to 86% in 2024 [15] - The direct sales model adopted by Kweichow Moutai through its iMoutai app is reshaping consumer engagement and pricing strategies, potentially increasing the company's profit margins [20][34] Group 4 - The recent price adjustments and direct sales strategies by Kweichow Moutai are aimed at stabilizing its pricing system while maintaining a degree of premium pricing for older vintages [26][28] - The pressure on other baijiu companies is expected to increase as Moutai's pricing strategies may disrupt the competitive landscape, particularly affecting those in the same price range [41] - The overall outlook for the baijiu industry remains cautious, with expectations for gradual recovery contingent on broader consumer environment improvements [44][45]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the liquor sector, particularly in the baijiu market, raises questions about whether this is a temporary spike or a sign of a fundamental reversal in trends [6][12][15]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 29, the baijiu sector saw an overall increase of over 9% [3]. - Notable companies like Kweichow Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao experienced significant price movements, with Moutai reaching its largest single-day increase in a while [4]. - However, the following day, most companies, except for Huangtai Liquor, saw a decline in stock prices [5]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - The recent stability in the wholesale price of Moutai is attributed to increased demand as the Spring Festival approaches, with some distributors selling out their quotas for January and February [8]. - The wholesale price of Moutai rose by 1,000 yuan in a single day, exceeding 1,700 yuan per bottle [9]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The baijiu industry faced significant challenges over the past year, with the Shenyuan Baijiu Index dropping over 13% in 2025, and many companies reporting profit warnings [13][14]. - The industry has been in a downturn for five years, with an overall price-to-earnings ratio below 20, indicating a pessimistic market outlook [16]. Group 4: Structural Changes - The production of large-scale baijiu enterprises has halved from 7.86 million kiloliters to 4.15 million kiloliters from 2019 to 2024, while sales revenue has grown from 561.8 billion yuan to 796.4 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 7% [22][23]. - The market is witnessing a "Matthew Effect," where the top six companies' profit share has increased from 55% in 2014 to 86% in 2024 [32]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior - The consumption landscape is changing, with a significant decline in the consumer base and a high inventory pressure, leading to an average inventory turnover period of 900 days in 2024 [26][27]. - The shift in consumer behavior is evident as Moutai's direct sales through the i Moutai app have increased, allowing for a more stable pricing structure and a healthier consumption ecosystem [39][43]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The baijiu industry is expected to face a prolonged recovery period, with structural opportunities for companies that can navigate the current challenges [70]. - The potential for a rebound exists, but it may take time for the industry to regain its previous growth trajectory [70].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Moutai and CITIC Securities aims to enhance Moutai's market position and sustainable development through diversified investment strategies and financial services [3][4]. Group 1: Collaboration Details - Moutai's Chairman Chen Hua and CITIC Securities' Chairman Zhang Youjun discussed deepening their partnership during a meeting on January 30 [1]. - CITIC Securities recognizes Moutai's brand and capital advantages, emphasizing its potential for sustainable growth and stable returns for investors [3]. - The collaboration seeks to explore new directions in the capital market and identify growth opportunities, aiming for mutual benefits [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Focus - Moutai is committed to its core liquor business while also focusing on market-oriented transformation and upgrading traditional industries [4]. - The partnership will leverage CITIC Securities' resources to foster strategic emerging industries and new economic growth points, enhancing Moutai's resilience against market cycles [4]. - Moutai's contributions to rural revitalization and high-quality development in Guizhou are highlighted as part of its broader mission [4].

2026.01.31 本文字数：1371，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 宋婕 第一财经记者梳理发现，头部黄金品牌的金饰克价涨跌幅度有所分化。 部分品牌报价连跌两日之后，依然要比28日报价更高。例如，周大福今日报价的1625元/克，就比该品 牌在28日的1618元/克要高。六福珠宝的金饰克价在29日达到了1704元/克的高位，30日回落到1683元/ 克，31日报价1623元/克，依然要比该品牌在28日的1616元/克要高。 但部分品牌价格下调的幅度更大，例如老凤祥的金饰克价仅31日就降了170元。该品牌曾在1月29日达到 1713元/克，30日报价回落到1668元/克，31日报价低至1498元/克，比该品牌在28日报价1620元还要低不 少。老凤祥最新的金饰克价距离历史高价已跌去215元/克。 在金价大幅震荡的过程中，不同金饰品牌及不同品类产品的价格表现分化显著。 1月30日，黄金遇40年来最大单日跌幅，白银创历史最大盘中跌幅。国内主要品牌的金饰克价与国际金 价同频，在大涨之后迎来了大跌。29日，多家头部金饰品牌克价突破1700元大关，刷新历史记录。而大 涨的行情在30日戛然而止，金饰克价从高位回落， ...

据茅台官微报道，当地时间1月23日至25日，茅台集团党委副书记、总经理王莉率代表团赴法国开展文化交流与市场调研活动。 此次行程紧随茅台第三次亮相达沃斯世界经济论坛之后，通过拜访国际酒企、行业协会，召开渠道商交流会，调研终端市场，发布文化新品等举措，深化 中法酒业对话，锚定欧洲市场改革方向，为茅台持续深耕欧洲市场、助推国际化战略落地注入新动力。 作为中华优秀传统文化的重要载体，茅台始终以先行者姿态推动白酒国际化。此次法国之行，茅台把行业交流与文化互鉴深度结合，先后拜访了法国人头 马、卡慕两大知名干邑品牌，以及中国贸促会驻法国代表处、法国中国工商会，构建起中法酒业及经贸文化交流的纽带。 - 49 8 3 and I bo F 12 成立于1724年的人头马酒庄，隶属于人头马君度集团，旗下路易十三、人头马两大干邑品牌享誉全球。代表团在人头马的干邑地区总部、梅尔滨酒窖、品 鉴中心、蒸馏厂，探寻酒庄的历史脉络和工艺流程。双方围绕市场前沿布局、科技创新应用、全球高端烈酒消费趋势、品牌文化传承等话题深入探讨，加 深了彼此理解与信任，为全球高端烈酒品牌之间的跨文化对话奠定了基础。 法国卡慕始创于1863年，是世界著名干邑品牌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market price of Feitian Moutai has been rising for three consecutive days, with the original box price exceeding 1700 yuan per bottle, marking the highest single-day increase of the year at approximately 100 yuan per bottle [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - The terminal market price in Chengdu reached 1860 yuan per bottle, an increase of 160 yuan compared to the previous two days [1][4]. - The price of Feitian Moutai has seen multiple increases within a single day, with reports indicating a rise of 4 times in one day and 2 times the next day [4]. - As of January 30, the market price for original box Feitian Moutai ranged from 1710 to 1770 yuan per bottle, while scattered bottles were priced between 1650 and 1700 yuan per bottle, with daily increases of 100 to 160 yuan for original boxes and 80 to 130 yuan for scattered bottles [7]. Group 2: Market Demand and Supply - The current market demand has exceeded expectations, with some distributors noting a significant increase in purchasing power, described as "heavenly" [1][5]. - The demand surge is attributed not only to the traditional seasonal increase during the Spring Festival but also to the impact of the iMoutai platform, which has attracted new consumer groups beyond traditional distribution channels [3][8]. - Many distributors have already sold out their quotas for January and February, leading to a potential demand exceeding supply situation [10][11]. Group 3: Future Price Stability - There is a prevailing optimistic outlook regarding the stability of Feitian Moutai prices post-Spring Festival, primarily based on supply-demand dynamics [10][11]. - Concerns remain about the sustainability of the new consumer base attracted by iMoutai and the potential for price corrections after the holiday season [12][13]. - Some distributors have noted a decline in group purchase numbers by over 30% year-on-year, indicating that the current purchasing behavior may not sustain long-term demand [12].

| | 中国知名白酒大单品 烟 | 市场真实成交终端价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | i茅台飞天茅台(2026)售价1499精品茅台售价2299 | | | 品名/规格 | | 今日价格(元) | 较昨日(元) | | | 贵州茅台酒(飞天) 53度/500ml | 1755/瓶 | 90元▲ | | | 贵州茅台酒(精品) 53度/500ml | 2381/瓶 | 12元 - | | | 五粮液普五八代 52度/500ml | 798/瓶 | -2元 | | | 青花汾20 | 375/瓶 | 3元 | | 『国文 出口 U | | --- | | 52度/500ml | 867/瓶 10元▲ 来源：滚动播报 新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时收集的数据显示，中国白酒市场十大单品的终端零售均价在1月31日显著 上行。如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今日总售价为9009元，较昨日上涨117元，重返9000元关 口，创过去20天以来新高。飞天茅台大幅拉升驱动市场上行，头部单品对整体均价的带动效应显著。 今日 市场呈现普涨态势，十大单品七涨两跌一平，高端酒品对价格中枢的影 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market price of Feitian Moutai has risen for three consecutive days, with the original box price exceeding 1700 yuan per bottle, marking the highest daily increase of the year at approximately 100 yuan per bottle [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The terminal market price in Chengdu has reached 1860 yuan per bottle, an increase of 160 yuan compared to the previous two days, indicating a strong demand exceeding expectations [1][3]. - Many distributors express that the current market demand recovery has surpassed their expectations, with some describing the purchasing power as "massive" [1][3]. - The price of Feitian Moutai has seen multiple increases within a single day, with reports of prices rising four times in one day and twice the next day, driven by high demand as the holiday approaches [3][6]. Group 2: Seasonal Demand and Supply Factors - The seasonal demand increase due to the Spring Festival is a significant factor, alongside the impact of the iMoutai platform releasing Feitian Moutai at a lower price, which has stimulated market demand [3][7]. - The current price trend is expected to be influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with many distributors having already sold out their quotas for January and February, potentially leading to a situation where demand exceeds supply [8][9]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Sentiment - The iMoutai platform has attracted a large number of new consumers, many of whom are not traditional channel customers, indicating a shift in the consumer base [7]. - There is a cautious sentiment regarding the sustainability of the current price increase, with concerns that the demand driven by holiday gifting may not translate into long-term purchasing behavior [9]. - Some distributors report a decline in group purchase customers by over 30% year-on-year, suggesting that the current purchasing activity is primarily driven by short-term needs rather than sustained demand [9].