Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices this year. Key areas to focus on in July include safety regulations, supply changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations due to "export rush," the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [2][12] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of June 30 to July 6, among 100 tracked chemical products, 25 saw price increases, 56 saw declines, and 19 remained stable. The average price of TDI increased by 7.02% week-on-week, while the average price of acrylic acid rose by 3.65% [11][36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on safety regulations and supply changes affecting the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations from the first half of the year, the growing importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies. Long-term investment themes include sustained high crude oil prices benefiting the oil and gas extraction sector, rapid development in downstream industries, and policy support for demand recovery [12][19] Key Products and Price Changes - TDI prices increased to 12,013 CNY/ton, while acrylic acid prices reached 7,100 CNY/ton, reflecting a 14.52% year-on-year increase. The average price of crude oil also saw slight increases, with WTI at 66.50 USD/barrel and Brent at 68.30 USD/barrel [11][35][36] Company Highlights - Satellite Chemical and Anji Technology are highlighted as "gold stocks" for July, with both companies showing strong revenue and profit growth in 2024. Satellite Chemical reported a revenue of 45.648 billion CNY, a 10.03% increase year-on-year, while Anji Technology achieved a revenue of 1.835 billion CNY, a 48.24% increase year-on-year [13][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The oil price experienced significant fluctuations in H1 2025 due to a combination of geopolitical disturbances and OPEC+ production increases, leading to a downward trend in oil prices [1][11] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and uncertainties surrounding the Iran nuclear issue, are expected to continue impacting oil prices [2][15] - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August 2025, with a projected global oil supply increase of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 [3][17] - Oil demand growth expectations have been revised downward, with IEA predicting an increase of 720,000 barrels per day in 2025, primarily due to weak demand from the US and China [4][24] - The "Big Three" oil companies in China are focusing on high capital expenditure and strategic production increases to mitigate external uncertainties [4][27] Summary by Sections Oil Price Trends - In H1 2025, oil prices showed a downward trend, with Brent and WTI prices at $66.63 and $64.97 per barrel respectively, down 11.0% and 9.6% from the beginning of the year [1][11] Geopolitical Risks - The Russia-Ukraine conflict is expected to persist, with slow progress in peace talks affecting market sentiment [2][12] - The Iran nuclear issue remains a significant geopolitical risk, with potential for escalation impacting oil prices [15] Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, with a total increase of 1.918 million barrels per day since April 2025 [3][17] - The US shale oil production is expected to slow down, providing some support against the global supply increase [19] Demand Expectations - The IEA has lowered its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 by approximately 300,000 barrels per day, citing weak demand from major economies [4][24] - The "Big Three" oil companies are adapting to these changes by increasing their production plans [4][27] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for the "Big Three" oil companies and the oil service sector, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic recovery for chemical demand [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for specific companies within the sector [4][5]. Core Insights - OPEC has announced an unexpected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day for August, but the actual impact of this increase remains to be observed [4][5]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a downward trend in oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures closing at $68.3 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.78% [4][18]. - The refining sector is seeing mixed results, with overseas refined oil crack spreads declining, while olefin price spreads show varied trends [4][47]. - The polyester sector is facing profitability challenges, but there are expectations for recovery as supply and demand improve [4][13]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - OPEC's actual production increase has been lower than expected, with April's total production at approximately 31.1 million barrels per day, a decrease of 210,000 barrels from the previous month [4][8]. - The U.S. oil rig count decreased to 539, down 8 from the previous week and down 46 year-on-year [31][32]. - The report anticipates a widening supply-demand trend in crude oil, with potential downward pressure on prices, but expects prices to stabilize at mid-high levels due to OPEC's production cuts and shale oil cost support [4][18]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was $14.01 per barrel, down $2.46 from the previous week [51]. - The U.S. gasoline RBOB-WTI spread was $22.37 per barrel, up $0.53 from the previous week, with a historical average of $24.86 per barrel [56]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as economic recovery progresses, despite current low levels [4][47]. Polyester Sector - The PTA price has seen a decline, with the average price in East China at 4,971.4 yuan per ton, down 3.26% week-on-week [4][13]. - The report highlights a potential recovery in the polyester industry, with expectations for improved profitability as supply-demand dynamics shift positively [4][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as top refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [4][13]. - It also suggests that the upstream exploration and development sector remains robust, with high capital expenditure expected to continue, particularly for offshore oil service companies [4][13].

能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究助理：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600123070007 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年7月6日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 证券研究报告 原油周报：OPEC+或将在八月继续增产 ◼ 【美国原油】 2 ◼ 1）原油价格：原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别68.2/66.3美元/桶，较上周分别-0.2/+0.6美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.2/4.2/4.0/0.2亿桶，环比 +408/+385/+24/-149万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1343万桶/天，环比0万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周425台，环比-7台。美国活跃压裂 车队本周179部，环比-3部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油加工量为1711万桶/天，环比+12万桶/天；美国炼厂原油开工率为94.9%，环比+0.2pct。 ◼ 5）原油进出口量：美国原油进口量、出口量、净 ...

Group 1 - The core concept of "Deep Sea Technology" is the intersection of policy certainty under "bottom line thinking," focusing on domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and international trade as key response strategies to external shocks [4][13][14] - The introduction of "Deep Sea Technology" solidifies the policy status of the marine economy, marking a shift from supplementary industries to a core component of national strategic emerging industries, indicating a new phase in the top-level design of China's marine economy [5][18] - The "Deep Sea Technology" industry chain is complex and interdisciplinary, with core technologies categorized as "three deep" technologies: deep diving, deep drilling, and deep networking [6][26] Group 2 - The upstream of the deep sea technology industry chain includes raw materials and components, requiring high-pressure resistance and corrosion resistance, while the midstream focuses on industrialization capabilities in deep sea detection, equipment manufacturing, and system integration [6][26] - The downstream includes mature sectors like deep sea oil and gas development, while emerging areas such as natural gas hydrate commercialization and marine renewable energy are in early stages, indicating future growth potential [32] - The policy framework for deep sea technology has established a dual-driven development model at both national and local levels, with significant initiatives from various provinces to enhance marine industry capabilities [22][25]

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) reported a closing price of 26.29 yuan on July 3, 2025, with a slight decline of 0.04% and a trading volume of 202,600 shares, amounting to a total transaction value of 533 million yuan [1]. Trading Information Summary - On July 3, the fund flow for CNOOC showed a net inflow of 26.8 million yuan from main funds, accounting for 5.03% of the total transaction value. In contrast, retail funds experienced a net outflow of 6.84 million yuan, representing 1.28% of the total transaction value [2][4]. Company Announcement Summary - CNOOC announced a final cash dividend of 0.60506 yuan per share (tax included) for the 2024 A-share period. The record date for shareholders is July 10, 2025, and the dividend payment date is July 11, 2025. The total cash dividend distribution amounts to approximately 1.81 billion yuan (tax included) [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has announced a final dividend distribution plan, with a proposed payout of HKD 0.66 per share, translating to RMB 0.60506 per share for A-share holders, following the approval at the annual general meeting on June 5, 2025 [1][2]. Dividend Distribution Plan - The total cash dividend to be distributed to A-share holders amounts to RMB 1,809,129,400.00 (including tax) [2]. - The dividend distribution will be executed based on the A-share count registered on the equity registration date, which is set for July 10, 2025 [2][3]. - The last trading day before the dividend distribution is July 11, 2025, and the ex-dividend date is also July 11, 2025 [3]. Taxation Details - For individual A-share holders, dividends are subject to different tax treatments based on the holding period. Those holding shares for over one year will be exempt from individual income tax, receiving a net dividend of RMB 0.60506 per share [3][4]. - For shares held for less than one year, the tax rate varies: 20% for holdings of one month or less, and 10% for holdings between one month and one year [3][4]. - Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) will have a 10% withholding tax applied, resulting in a net dividend of RMB 0.54455 per share for those through the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect [5]. Contact Information - For further inquiries, investors can contact the company's board office at 010-84520883 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future prospects of China's chemical new materials industry, highlighting the continuous expansion of production capacity, technological innovations, and the emergence of specialized chemical parks, while also addressing structural challenges and the need for high-quality development. Group 1: Industry Overview - In 2023, China's chemical new materials capacity reached approximately 49 million tons per year, with an output exceeding 36 million tons and a production value of over 1.37 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to 2022, although lithium battery materials saw a decline from 540 billion yuan to 480 billion yuan [5][20]. - The chemical industry is experiencing a transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development, with total revenue of 15.95 trillion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, and total profits of 873.4 billion yuan, down 20.7% [20][21]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - Since the 13th Five-Year Plan, the chemical new materials sector has seen significant technological advancements, with breakthroughs in key technologies such as photovoltaic-grade EVA, optical-grade PMMA, and high-strength carbon fibers [7][8]. - A number of critical products have broken foreign monopolies and achieved industrialization, including HDI, PC, PPS, and electronic-grade chemicals [8][10]. Group 3: Key Players and Market Dynamics - Major companies in the sector include Sinopec, PetroChina, and China National Chemical Corporation, focusing on high-end polyolefins, synthetic rubber, and carbon fibers [11]. - Private enterprises are also making strides in specialized fields such as EVA, fluorinated chemicals, and nylon, contributing to the development of China's new materials industry [11]. Group 4: Specialized Chemical Parks - Several specialized chemical parks have emerged, such as the Shanghai Chemical Park and Ningbo Petrochemical Economic Development Zone, which are becoming core drivers for the development of new materials [11][12]. Group 5: Investment Trends and Policy Guidance - Under the guidance of industrial policies, there is a high investment enthusiasm in the chemical new materials sector, focusing on high-end polyolefins, engineering plastics, and functional films [17][23]. - The industry is urged to prioritize the import of high-potential products to address supply shortages and enhance domestic production capabilities [23][24]. Group 6: Challenges and Future Directions - The industry faces structural contradictions, including insufficient high-end supply and bottlenecks in key raw materials and technologies [18][20]. - The focus is shifting towards high-quality development, with an emphasis on enhancing product quality and meeting the growing domestic demand for high-performance materials [21][22].

重要内容提示： 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利0.60506元（含税） 相关日期 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 日 | | Ａ股 | 2025/7/10 | － | 2025/7/11 | 2025/7/11 | 差异化分红送转： 否 一、 通过分配方案的股东大会届次和日期 证券代码：600938 证券简称：中国海油 公告编号：2025-021 中国海洋石油有限公司 2024年 A 股末期股息分派实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 中国海洋石油有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）本次末期股息分 配方案已经本公司2025 年 6 月 5 日的2024年度股东周年大会审议通过。 二、 分配方案 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任 公司上海分公司（以下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的本公司全体股东。 本公司港股股东的分红派息事宜不 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report conducts a comprehensive analysis of the downstream landscape of pure benzene, including both horizontal and vertical perspectives. Horizontally, it analyzes the demand proportion, production capacity growth rate, and regional distribution of the five major downstream products of pure benzene. Vertically, it focuses on the device analysis of each of the five products, including the proportion of self - owned and externally purchased pure benzene, device characteristics, regional distribution, and enterprise group concentration [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pure Benzene Downstream Pattern Horizontal Analysis 3.1.1 Demand Proportion and Basic Introduction of Five Major Downstream Products for Pure Benzene - Based on 2024 production data, the demand proportions of benzene ethylene, caprolactam (CPL), phenol (phenol - ketone), aniline, and adipic acid for pure benzene are 42%, 21%, 17%, 12%, and 7% respectively, with other pure benzene demands accounting for 1% [9]. - Benzene ethylene is the largest downstream product of pure benzene. Its production processes mainly include ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, propylene oxide - styrene co - production (PO/SM), and C8 extraction. It is mainly used in PS, EPS, ABS, UPR, etc. [11]. - CPL is the second - largest downstream product, mainly produced by the cyclohexanone ammoximation method (HAO, 83%) and the phosphoric acid hydroxylamine method (HPO, 17%). It is mainly used to produce PA6, which is used to make nylon [15]. - Phenol (phenol - ketone) is the third - largest downstream product. Produced by the cumene method, it is co - produced with acetone. Its main downstream products are bisphenol A and phenolic resin [22]. - Aniline accounts for 12% of pure benzene demand, produced by the nitrobenzene catalytic hydrogenation method. It is mainly used to produce MDI [23]. - Adipic acid accounts for 7% of pure benzene demand, mainly produced by the cyclohexene method (81%) and the cyclohexane method (19%). It is used to produce polyester polyols and PA66 [33]. 3.1.2 Demand Proportion of Five Major Downstream Products for Pure Benzene (Weighted by the Proportion of Externally Purchased Pure Benzene) - After excluding self - owned pure benzene integrated production capacity, the demand proportions of caprolactam, benzene ethylene, phenol - ketone, aniline, and adipic acid for externally purchased pure benzene are 28%, 25%, 15%, 19%, and 12% respectively [38]. - Benzene ethylene has a higher proportion of self - owned pure benzene in integration, with externally purchased pure benzene device capacity accounting for 34%. Phenol has 51% externally purchased capacity, CPL has 76%, and aniline and adipic acid have 94% and 95% respectively [37]. 3.1.3 Production Cycle of Five Major Downstream Products - Benzene ethylene's high - speed production cycle from 2020 - 2023 has ended, and production has slowed down since 2024 [42]. - CPL's production growth rate slowed down to 10% in 2025 after reaching 16% and 21% in 2023 and 2024 respectively [42]. - Phenol's production growth rate slowed down to 13% in 2025 after an average of 23% from 2020 - 2024 [42]. - Aniline's production growth rate is 8% in 2025, with intermittent production increases in the past [42]. - Adipic acid had no production plan in 2025 after a large - scale production increase in 2023 [42]. 3.1.4 Regional Consumption Proportion of Pure Benzene and the Demand Proportion of the Five Major Downstream Products in Each Region - The main consumption area of pure benzene is East China, which is also the main trading market. Other regions have relatively small proportions [45]. - In East China (excluding Shandong), benzene ethylene accounts for 58% and phenol accounts for 23% of pure benzene demand [46]. - In Shandong, benzene ethylene accounts for 36% and CPL accounts for 22% of pure benzene demand, with a more evenly distributed downstream structure compared to East China [46]. - In North China and South China, benzene ethylene and CPL are the main downstream products [49]. 3.2 Pure Benzene Downstream Pattern Vertical Analysis 3.2.1 Benzene Ethylene Device Analysis - Self - owned pure benzene devices in benzene ethylene production mainly belong to Sinopec, CNOOC, PetroChina, and large refineries like Hengli, Zhejiang Petrochemical, etc. Externally purchased pure benzene devices are mainly private refineries in Shandong and Jiangsu - Zhejiang [50]. - Benzene ethylene devices are mainly distributed in East China (43%), South China (19%), Shandong (18%), and Northeast China (10%). Externally purchased pure benzene devices are mainly in East China (50%) and Shandong (39%) [54]. 3.2.2 CPL Device Analysis - Self - owned pure benzene devices in CPL production mainly belong to Sinopec and its joint - venture companies. Most devices are externally purchased [57]. - CPL devices are mainly distributed in Central China (28%), Shandong (27%), and South China (26%). The enterprise concentration is not high [59]. - About 44% of CPL devices have downstream PA6 devices, and 21% have downstream PA6 and nylon devices [59]. 3.2.3 Phenol Device Analysis - Self - owned pure benzene devices in phenol production mainly belong to Sinopec, PetroChina, CNOOC, and large private refineries. Externally purchased pure benzene devices are in East China, Shandong, and South China [62]. - 69% of phenol devices have downstream bisphenol A devices, and 35% of these have self - owned bisphenol A and PC devices [62]. - Phenol devices are mainly in East China (49%), Shandong (19%), and South China (13%). The enterprise concentration is not high [68]. 3.2.4 Aniline Device Analysis - Only 6% of aniline devices have self - owned pure benzene (Sinopec Nanjing Chemical). Most are externally purchased [69]. - Aniline devices are mainly in East China (37%) and Shandong (33%). Wanhua accounts for 48% of the total production capacity, with high industry concentration [71]. 3.2.5 Adipic Acid Device Analysis - Only 5% of adipic acid devices have self - owned pure benzene (PetroChina). Most are externally purchased [73]. - Adipic acid devices are mainly in Southwest China (34%) and Shandong (25%). Huafeng accounts for 34% of the total production capacity. The industry is in an over - supply and loss situation [77].