Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3852.31 points with a decline of -0.21% as of 10:32 AM, and the total trading volume of A-shares is 1,075.764 billion yuan [1] Stocks with Death Cross - A total of 152 A-shares have seen their 5-day moving average cross below the 10-day moving average, indicating potential bearish trends [1] - Notable stocks with significant distance between their 5-day and 10-day moving averages include: - Songjing Co., Ltd. (688157) with a distance of -1.61% - Chunguang Technology (603657) with a distance of -1.02% - Pilin Bio (000403) with a distance of -0.93% [1] Detailed Stock Performance - Key stock performances include: - Songjing Co., Ltd. (688157): Today's change is -0.67% with a latest price of 40.09 yuan, which is -3.28% from the 10-day moving average [1] - Chunguang Technology (603657): Today's change is -3.47% with a latest price of 38.70 yuan, which is -6.79% from the 10-day moving average [1] - Pilin Bio (000403): Today's change is -0.52% with a latest price of 17.32 yuan, which is -2.64% from the 10-day moving average [1] Additional Stocks with Notable Changes - Other stocks showing significant changes include: - Jiangsu New Energy (603693): Today's change is -1.38% with a latest price of 12.87 yuan, which is -2.29% from the 10-day moving average [2] - Yongan Pharmaceutical (002365): Today's change is -1.04% with a latest price of 18.11 yuan, which is -1.45% from the 10-day moving average [2] - Mosi Co., Ltd. (001323): Today's change is -1.95% with a latest price of 28.16 yuan, which is -2.96% from the 10-day moving average [2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperforming the Market" [2] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, the increasing importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies, undervalued industry leaders, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [2][10] - It suggests that the oil price is expected to remain at a medium to high level, with continued high prosperity in the oil and gas extraction sector, and emphasizes the importance of policy support for demand recovery in 2025 [10] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of September 14, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the SW basic chemical sector is 25.62, at the 99.50 percentile historically, while the price-to-book ratio is 2.24, at the 80.12 percentile [10] - The SW oil and petrochemical sector has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 11.84, at the 84.48 percentile historically, and a price-to-book ratio of 1.17, at the 53.35 percentile [10] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following areas: 1. The impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries 2. The critical importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies 3. Undervalued industry leaders 4. Energy companies with stable dividend policies [2][10] - Long-term investment themes include the sustained high prosperity of the oil and gas extraction sector and the rapid development of downstream industries, particularly in new materials [10] Key Stocks to Watch - Recommended stocks include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation, and several technology and chemical companies such as Anji Technology, Yake Technology, and Jiangfeng Electronics [2][10] Price Trends - In the week of September 8-14, 36 chemical products saw price increases, 36 saw decreases, and 28 remained stable. The average price of 41% of tracked products increased month-on-month, while 47% decreased [9][32] - The report notes specific price movements, such as a decrease in urea prices by 1.69% compared to the previous week and a significant drop in trichlorosucrose prices by 8.11% [9][32]

Group 1 - The price spread for domestic key refining projects this week is 2579 CNY/ton, an increase of 97 CNY/ton (up 4% week-on-week) [1][2] - The price spread for foreign key refining projects this week is 1197 CNY/ton, an increase of 63 CNY/ton (up 6% week-on-week) [1][2] - The average price of PX this week is 835.6 USD/ton, a decrease of 7.0 USD/ton week-on-week, with a price spread compared to crude oil of 350.3 USD/ton, an increase of 1.7 USD/ton [3] Group 2 - In the polyester sector, the average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY are 6789, 7079, and 8021 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -82, -68, and -29 CNY/ton [2] - The weekly average profits for POY, FDY, and DTY are 108, 34, and 63 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -5, +5, and +31 CNY/ton [2] - The inventory days for POY, FDY, and DTY are 19.3, 27.6, and 31.1 days respectively, with week-on-week changes of +1.9, +1.2, and +1.4 days [2] Group 3 - The operating rate for PX is 85.9%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points week-on-week [3] - The operating rate for long filaments is 91.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The weaving machine operating rate is 62.4%, unchanged week-on-week [2] Group 4 - Key listed companies in the private refining and polyester filament sector include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., and Xin Fengming [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant target price increases for several companies from September 8 to September 14, indicating strong bullish sentiment from brokers towards these stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Target Price Increases - Aima Technology, Boss Electric, and Dong'e Ejiao saw target price increases of 90.44%, 78.46%, and 71.84% respectively, ranking them at the top of the list [1][2]. - Other notable companies with significant target price increases include Taiji Co. (65.65%), Aikodi (63.53%), and Kebo Da (62.59%) [2]. Group 2: Broker Recommendations - A total of 840 listed companies received broker recommendations during the same period, with Tongkun Co. receiving the highest number of recommendations at 8 [3]. - Other companies with multiple recommendations include Saisir (6 recommendations) and Senqilin (5 recommendations) [3]. Group 3: Rating Adjustments - During the period, 21 companies had their ratings upgraded, including Chipuan Co. from "Hold" to "Buy" by Guotou Securities [4]. - Other upgrades include Zaiseng Technology and Zhongmu Co., both raised to "Buy" from "Hold" by their respective brokers [4]. Group 4: Rating Downgrades - A total of 19 companies experienced rating downgrades, with Shanghai Hanxun's rating lowered from "Buy" to "Hold" by Shanxi Securities [5]. - Other notable downgrades include Huali Group and Shengke Communication, both downgraded from "Buy" to "Hold" [5]. Group 5: First Coverage - Brokers issued 109 instances of first coverage, with Ice Wheel Environment and Lingxiao Pump Industry receiving "Hold" ratings from their respective brokers [6]. - Other companies like Guomai Culture and Mindray Medical received "Buy" ratings, indicating positive initial outlooks [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The chemical industry in China is expected to undergo a revaluation due to anti-involution measures, which may lead to a significant slowdown in global chemical capacity expansion. This shift could enhance the cash flow and dividend yield of Chinese chemical companies, transforming them from cash-consuming entities to profit-generating ones [6][29] - The demand for chromium salts is anticipated to rise significantly due to increased orders for gas turbines and commercial aircraft engines in Europe and the US, leading to a projected shortfall of 250,000 tons by 2028, which is about 23% of the total annual production [6] - The report highlights four key investment opportunities: low-cost expansion, improving industry conditions, new materials, and high dividend yields from state-owned enterprises [7][8] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The basic chemical sector has shown a performance increase of 51.0% over the past 12 months, compared to 42.5% for the CSI 300 index [4] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for low-cost expansion in major companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others, alongside sectors like tires and fertilizers [7] - It also points out the improving conditions in various segments, including chromium salts, phosphate rock, and agricultural chemicals [8] Key Products Analysis - Recent price increases were noted for acrylic acid and esters, with butyl acrylate priced at 7,600 RMB/ton, reflecting a 3.40% increase [10] - The report also mentions the price of polymer MDI in East China at 15,550 RMB/ton, up by 1.97% [10] Company Tracking and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for many, with several companies rated as "Buy" [30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [6][12]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic judgment indicates that non-OPEC countries are expected to lead an increase in oil production, with a significant overall supply growth anticipated. Global GDP growth is projected to remain at 2.8%, with stable oil demand, although the growth rate may slow due to tariff policies [6][7]. - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is likely to boost demand during the peak season of September and October. Additionally, the leakage incident of GFL R32 in India may enhance China's export opportunities [6][12]. - The report highlights the ongoing investigation into anti-dumping practices against imported semiconductor chips from the U.S., which may benefit domestic semiconductor materials [6][12]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Analysis - Oil supply is expected to increase significantly, driven by non-OPEC production, while demand remains stable despite potential slowdowns due to tariffs. Geopolitical factors, including U.S.-China tariff relief and the Russia-Ukraine situation, are influencing oil prices [6][7]. - Coal prices are anticipated to stabilize at a low level, and natural gas export facilities in the U.S. may accelerate, leading to lower import costs [6][7]. Chemical Sector Configuration - The report suggests a strategic focus on four areas: textile and apparel chain, agricultural chemicals, export chain, and sectors benefiting from "de-involution" policies. Specific companies are recommended for investment based on their market positions and growth potential [6][12]. Key Material Focus - Emphasis is placed on the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, with specific companies highlighted for their potential in these sectors [6][12]. Price Trends - Recent data indicates fluctuations in various chemical prices, with PTA prices down by 0.3% and MEG down by 2.0%. The report notes that the overall industrial product PPI has shown a year-on-year decline of 2.9% [12][13][16]. Company Valuations - A detailed valuation table is provided, showcasing various companies in the agricultural chemicals and chemical sectors, with ratings ranging from "Buy" to "Increase" based on their market performance and projected earnings [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Cautiously Optimistic" investment rating [3][4]. Core Insights - OPEC's actual production increase is lower than expected, leading to an anticipated stable oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in the medium term [4][5]. - The upstream sector shows signs of recovery with oil prices rising, while drilling day rates remain stable [4][24]. - The refining sector is experiencing mixed results, with some product margins improving while others decline [4]. - The polyester sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply and demand dynamics improve [4][18]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $66.99 per barrel, a week-on-week increase of 2.27%, while WTI futures rose by 1.33% to $62.69 per barrel [4][24]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.42 million barrels to 425 million barrels, remaining 4% lower than the five-year average [24][25]. - The number of active U.S. drilling rigs increased by 2 to 539, although this is a decrease of 51 rigs year-on-year [35][38]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products decreased to $16.66 per barrel, down by $1.41 from the previous week [4]. - The price spread between gasoline and WTI crude oil fell to $18.30 per barrel, down by $2.48 from the previous week [4]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as economic recovery progresses [4]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have declined, with the average price in East China at 4606.6 CNY per ton, down 2.02% week-on-week [4]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the polyester industry as new capacity additions taper off in the coming years [4][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [4][18]. - In the refining sector, it suggests monitoring quality companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [4][18]. - For upstream exploration and production, it highlights companies like CNOOC and China National Petroleum Corporation as having strong prospects [4][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a weekly analysis of the large refining and chemical industry, highlighting that the cost - end support is weak, and filament prices are under pressure. It provides detailed data on various segments such as refining, polyester, and chemicals, as well as the performance of related listed companies [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **6 Major Private Refining Companies' Performance** - **Stock Price Changes**: As of September 12, 2025, the stock prices of private refining companies showed different trends. For example, New Fengming had a weekly increase of 7.1%, while Hengli Petrochemical had a weekly decrease of 1.4% [9]. - **Earnings Forecast**: The report provides the net profit forecasts of these companies from 2024 to 2027. For instance, the expected net profit of Rongsheng Petrochemical in 2025 is 2.616 billion yuan [9]. - **Oil Prices and Refining Spreads** - **International Crude Oil**: The average price of Brent crude oil this week was 66.5 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.2 dollars/barrel (-1.8%) compared to last week, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.6%. The average price of WTI crude oil was 62.6 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.5 dollars/barrel (-2.4%) compared to last week, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.9% [9]. - **Refining Spreads**: The spread of domestic key large refining projects this week was 2,579.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 96.5 yuan/ton (+3.9%); the spread of foreign key large refining projects was 1,197.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 62.6 yuan/ton (+5.5%) [9]. - **Polyester Sector** - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average prices of POY, FDY, and DTY this week were 6,789.3 yuan/ton, 7,078.6 yuan/ton, and 8,021.4 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 82.1 yuan/ton, 67.9 yuan/ton, and 28.6 yuan/ton. The weekly average profits of POY, FDY, and DTY were 107.8 yuan/ton, 34.3 yuan/ton, and 62.8 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 4.5 yuan/ton, +5.0 yuan/ton, and +31.0 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of POY, FDY, and DTY were 19.3 days, 27.6 days, and 31.1 days respectively, with week - on - week increases of 1.9 days, 1.2 days, and 1.4 days. The operating rate of filament was 91.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 pct [10]. - **Refining Sector** - **Domestic Refined Oil**: This week, the prices of domestic gasoline and diesel decreased [3]. - **US Refined Oil**: This week, the prices of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel decreased [3]. - **Chemical Sector** - **PX**: The average price of PX this week was 835.6 dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7.0 dollars/ton. The spread between PX and crude oil was 350.3 dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.7 dollars/ton. The operating rate of PX was 85.9%, a week - on - week increase of 1.2 pct [3]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report - **Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends** - **Market Performance of Six Private Big Refining Companies**: The report presents the market performance trends of six private big refining companies from 2020 to 2025, including Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, etc. [16][17] - **Refining Spreads and Oil Prices**: It shows the historical trends of domestic and foreign big refining project spreads and Brent oil prices from 2020 to 2025 [20][22] - **Polyester Sector** - **Raw Material and Product Prices**: It presents the price trends of crude oil, PX, PTA, MEG, etc., as well as the price and profit trends of various polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle chips from 2020 to 2025 [24][26][38] - **Operating Rates and Inventories**: It shows the operating rate trends of PX, PTA, MEG, filament, and polyester staple fiber from 2020 to 2025, as well as the inventory trends of PTA, filament, and polyester staple fiber [33][56][76] - **Sales and Production Rates**: It presents the sales and production rate trends of filament and polyester staple fiber in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region from 2020 to 2025 [49][72] - **Refining Sector** - **Domestic Refined Oil**: It shows the price trends of domestic gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel and their spreads with crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [85][94] - **US Refined Oil**: It shows the price trends of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel and their spreads with crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [99][107] - **European Refined Oil**: It shows the price trends of European gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel and their spreads with crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [112][121] - **Singapore Refined Oil**: It shows the price trends of Singapore gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel and their spreads with crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [126][134] - **Chemical Sector** - **Chemical Product Prices**: It shows the price trends of various chemical products such as polyethylene LLDPE, homopolymerized polypropylene, EVA, styrene, acrylonitrile, PC, MMA, etc., and their spreads with crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [140][148]

Market Overview - The refining and trading sector experienced a decline of 0.82% on September 12, with Bohui Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.69, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12996.38, up 0.13% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the refining and trading sector included: - Maoyang Xinchang (Code: 000819) with a closing price of 17.50, up 3.18% [1] - Compton (Code: 603798) with a closing price of 16.36, up 2.63% [1] - Shanghai Petrochemical (Code: 600688) with a closing price of 2.80, up 1.08% [1] - Major decliners included: - Bohui Co. (Code: 300839) with a closing price of 14.78, down 2.76% [2] - Hengli Petrochemical (Code: 600346) with a closing price of 17.06, down 1.33% [2] - Hengyi Petrochemical (Code: 000703) with a closing price of 6.66, down 1.19% [2] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector saw a net outflow of 421 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net inflow of 198 million yuan [2] - The sector's capital flow indicated that: - Main funds showed a net outflow from several stocks, including Maoyang Xinchang and Hengyi Petrochemical [3] - Retail investors contributed positively to stocks like Compton and Rongsheng Petrochemical [3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of international oil price fluctuations and the recent price changes in TDI and acetic acid, suggesting a focus on supply-side influences from "anti-involution" trends, the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, undervalued industry leaders, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [2][10] - It recommends a mid-to-long-term investment strategy focusing on high oil prices, the growth of the oil and gas extraction sector, and the rapid development of downstream industries, particularly in new materials [10] Industry Dynamics - As of September 7, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the SW basic chemical sector is 25.10, at the 74.71% historical percentile, while the price-to-book ratio is 2.19, at the 51.87% historical percentile. For the SW oil and petrochemical sector, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio is 11.93, at the 28.18% historical percentile, and the price-to-book ratio is 1.18, at the 24.04% historical percentile [10] - The report notes significant impacts from tariff policies and oil price volatility on the industry this year, with a focus on several key areas for September [2][10] Key Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong performance in the following areas: 1. Oil and gas extraction with sustained high activity levels and robust dividend policies 2. New materials, particularly in electronic materials and renewable energy sectors, with significant growth potential [10] - Specific companies recommended include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation, and several others in the new materials and energy sectors [10] Price Changes and Market Analysis - In the week of September 1-7, 29 chemical products saw price increases, 39 experienced declines, and 32 remained stable. Notable price increases were observed in NYMEX natural gas, bisphenol A, and acetic acid, while TDI and other products saw significant price drops [9][34] - The report indicates that the average price of acetic acid increased by 2.12% week-on-week, while TDI prices fell by 6.45% [9][34]