Group 1 - Ganfeng Lithium is a global leader in the lithium industry, with a comprehensive resource layout covering spodumene, salt lakes, and clay, and its lithium carbonate production capacity is among the top in the industry [1] - Tianqi Lithium controls the world's largest spodumene mine, Greenbushes, with a self-sufficiency rate of 100%, and its full industry chain layout enhances profitability amid rising lithium carbonate prices [2] - Salt Lake Industry holds the largest lithium resource in China at the Qarhan Salt Lake, with a low extraction cost of 30,000 to 40,000 yuan per ton, and plans to reach a production capacity of 40,000 tons of lithium carbonate by 2025 [3] Group 2 - Zangge Mining has a significant advantage in the Tibetan salt lake resource layout, with a planned capacity of 50,000 tons per year and a self-sufficiency rate exceeding 80% [4] - Shengxin Lithium Energy owns Asia's largest hard rock lithium mine and has a long-term supply agreement with CATL, ensuring stable sales amid rising lithium prices [5] - Rongjie Co. focuses on lithium resource development and processing, optimizing its mining technology to enhance resource utilization and reduce costs [6] Group 3 - Tibet Mining has exclusive mining rights to the Zabuye Salt Lake, one of Asia's largest lithium salt lakes, which provides a cost advantage as lithium carbonate prices rise [7][8] - Yahua Group ranks second in lithium extraction from lepidolite in A-shares, with an annual capacity of 45,000 tons, and has established long-term partnerships with several battery manufacturers [9] - Zhongmin Resources has a strong presence in both spodumene and salt lake lithium extraction, actively expanding overseas projects to enhance market competitiveness [10] Group 4 - Jiangte Motor, located in Yichun, known as "Asia's Lithium Capital," has a lepidolite extraction capacity of 30,000 tons per year and holds proprietary low-cost extraction technology [11] - Xizang City Investment has lithium carbonate reserves of 3.9 million tons from two salt lakes, utilizing a low-cost extraction method that positions it well for profit during price increases [12] - Yongxing Materials focuses on lithium salt production and has a diversified supply chain that allows it to respond quickly to market changes [13] Group 5 - Huayou Cobalt is a global leader in cobalt products and has developed an integrated supply chain for nickel, cobalt, and lithium resources, ensuring stable supply for battery materials [14] - Hanrui Cobalt has a synergistic business model for cobalt and lithium, ensuring raw material self-sufficiency and benefiting from the growth of the lithium battery industry [15] - Tengen Cobalt focuses on the research, production, and sales of cobalt and lithium products, maintaining stable sales through partnerships with leading battery manufacturers [16] Group 6 - Luoyang Molybdenum is the second-largest cobalt producer globally and is actively expanding its lithium resource layout, benefiting from the growth in lithium battery demand [17] - Greeenmei is a leader in battery recycling, achieving over 95% recovery rates and integrating lithium resource recovery into its business model [18] - Northern Rare Earth is the largest supplier of light rare earths and is diversifying into lithium and other energy metals, leveraging its resource advantages [19] Group 7 - Jinli Permanent Magnet has advanced technology that reduces the use of heavy rare earths and is expanding into lithium-related energy metal businesses [20] - Wanhua Chemical is actively involved in the lithium battery materials sector, providing chemical support for lithium carbonate production and benefiting from the growing demand in the lithium battery industry [21] - China Aluminum is leveraging its mining experience to develop lithium resources, ensuring quality and reducing operational costs amid rising lithium prices [22] Group 8 - Jiangxi Copper is expanding into lithium and cobalt, utilizing its mining expertise to enhance its energy metal business [23] - Huayu Mining is focusing on lithium resource development in Tibet, leveraging its regional advantages to enhance its lithium salt processing projects [24] - Shengda Resources is actively acquiring lithium resources and enhancing its energy metal business through strategic partnerships [25] Group 9 - Boqian New Materials, while primarily focused on nano-level metal powder materials, is involved in the lithium battery sector and is expected to see significant profit growth by 2026 [26] - Yongshan Lithium focuses on lithium salt product development and has optimized its production processes to enhance product quality and efficiency [27] - Dazhong Mining is transitioning into the lithium sector, utilizing its mining expertise to explore and develop lithium resources [28] Group 10 - Jinyuan Co. is transforming into the lithium battery sector, focusing on lithium resource development and processing through strategic acquisitions [29] - Weiling Co. is extending its business into the lithium battery supply chain, providing equipment and technical support for lithium mining and processing [30] - Tianhua Super Clean is deeply engaged in lithium battery materials, with a strong production capacity and established relationships with leading battery manufacturers [31]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing volatility with a strong performance in the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly driven by the surge in lithium carbonate futures and geopolitical tensions supporting gold prices [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 13, the non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a significant increase, rising over 2.8% and attracting more than 730 million yuan in capital inflow, totaling over 300 million yuan in the last two days [1]. - Key stocks in the non-ferrous sector showed varied performance, with Zijin Mining up 3.89%, Ganfeng Lithium soaring 8.71%, and Shandong Gold increasing by 5.49% [2][7]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The non-ferrous sector is currently influenced by multiple factors including frequent macroeconomic disturbances, rigid supply-side conditions, and new demand-side dynamics [5]. - Lithium, as an energy metal, is expected to benefit from export tax adjustments, potentially leading to increased battery production and tighter supply-demand dynamics for lithium carbonate [5][8]. - Gold prices are supported by rising geopolitical tensions and weak employment data, with expectations for prices to remain above $4,500 per ounce [5][9]. - Copper prices are driven by structural supply concerns and regional mismatches, with expectations for continued price increases due to a projected supply gap of over 100,000 tons by 2026 [9]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted as a comprehensive investment vehicle covering various metal sectors, with a high concentration of strategic assets [11]. - The ETF's index shows a leading concentration in copper and gold, with a copper content of 34% and gold content of 12%, making it attractive for investors looking to capitalize on the ongoing non-ferrous market cycle [11][13]. - The ETF has demonstrated superior performance with a cumulative return of 99.61% since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion, indicating a strong investment case [13].

Core Viewpoint - The metal commodities have experienced a significant price increase, with notable rises in gold, silver, and various base metals, indicating a robust demand and supply dynamics in the market [1][6]. Group 1: Price Performance - COMEX gold and silver prices increased by 4.07% and 12.36% respectively, while LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin saw increases of 4.24%, 4.00%, 0.85%, 2.14%, 5.25%, and 12.75% respectively [1][6]. - The performance of the non-ferrous mining ETF, which tracks the China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Index, has shown a one-year increase of 120%, with key metals like gold, copper, and aluminum making up nearly 60% of its weight [1][8]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Ping An Securities, silver is expected to maintain a continuous shortage globally due to its rigid supply characteristics, with demand expected to accelerate due to advancements in AI and overseas re-industrialization [1][7]. - Galaxy Securities suggests that escalating global geopolitical conflicts may lead major powers to strengthen control over key strategic metal resources, potentially reshaping global metal supply chains and increasing demand for critical strategic metals like copper, tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt, and rare earth materials [1][7]. Group 3: Historical Performance and Volatility - The non-ferrous mining index has shown a cumulative increase of 172.62% over the past decade, with an annualized growth rate of 10.87% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.49, indicating higher elasticity compared to similar indices [3][5].

Group 1 - The average domestic aluminum price in China reached 21,407 yuan/ton in Q4 2025, a 3.4% increase from Q3, contributing to an annual average of 20,646 yuan/ton, which is a 1.0% increase compared to the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - On January 5, 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum price hit 23,300 yuan/ton, marking the highest level since March 2022 [1] - The Shandong Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a plan aiming for a 5% year-on-year growth in the added value of the non-ferrous metal industry by 2026, with aluminum industry revenue exceeding 660 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities anticipates that the profit center for electrolytic aluminum will further increase in the first half of 2026, despite recent price surges leading to cautious purchasing behavior in the downstream industry [1][2] - The current weak purchasing sentiment in the downstream sector is seen as normal under high price conditions, but it may lead to low raw material inventories, which could support aluminum prices if the long-term supply-demand balance remains tight [2] - The upcoming "golden three silver four" peak demand season is expected to positively influence prices, suggesting that weaker current buying intentions may benefit future aluminum price and profit center increases [2] Group 3 - China Hongqiao (01378) is a leading global aluminum producer with a strong cost advantage due to high self-sufficiency in bauxite, power, and alumina, with projected net profits of 24.803 billion yuan, 25.81 billion yuan, and 27.96 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [3] - Innovation Industry (02788) is expanding its electrolytic aluminum capacity in Saudi Arabia, with a 33.6% stake in a comprehensive project, benefiting from integrated energy and alumina production [3] - Nanshan Aluminum (600219) is planning a 1 million ton/year electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia, supported by an existing alumina plant, which provides raw material security and cost advantages [4]

Group 1 - The industrial metal sector increased by 0.38% on January 12, with Yinbang Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4165.29, up 1.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14366.91, up 1.75% [1] - Key stocks in the industrial metal sector showed significant price increases, with Yinbang Co., Ltd. rising by 13.64% to a closing price of 21.16 [1] Group 2 - The industrial metal sector experienced a net outflow of 3.799 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 3.206 billion yuan [2] - The top gainers in the industrial metal sector included Chujiang New Materials, which saw a net inflow of 1.66 billion yuan from institutional investors [3] - The overall trading volume for the industrial metal sector was substantial, with notable transactions recorded for several companies [1][2]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's report indicates a preference order for the materials sector in 2026: Copper/Gold > Aluminum > Lithium > Coal > Steel [1] - The MSCI China Materials Index is expected to outperform the MSCI China Index this year due to supply disruptions or tight supply and further M&A activities [1] - Zijin Mining (601899)(02899) remains Morgan Stanley's top pick for the year, with continued optimism for Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)(03993), China Aluminum (601600)(02600), and China Hongqiao (01378) [1] Group 2 - Based on a positive outlook for copper, Jiangxi Copper (600362)(00358) rating is upgraded to Neutral [1] - Chinese policies are seen as the main driver of commodity prices, but the execution and intensity of anti-involution policies post-Q4 2025 are expected to be milder than anticipated [1] - The effort to reduce excess capacity in the steel sector is a long-term endeavor, and without significant production cuts, steel profit margins are expected to remain low [1] Group 3 - Baosteel (600019)(600019.SH) rating is downgraded to Neutral, while Ansteel (000898)(00347) is downgraded to Underweight [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.55%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.88%, with notable gains in tech stocks like Meituan and Baidu, both increasing over 2% [1] - Lithium stocks showed strong performance, with Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium both rising over 4%, while the precious metals sector also strengthened, with Zijin Mining up nearly 3% and China Aluminum increasing over 2% [1] - Citic Securities anticipates a second round of valuation recovery and performance resurgence in the Hong Kong stock market by 2026, driven by internal "15th Five-Year Plan" catalysts and external economic stimulus [1] Group 2 - Zheshang International views the fundamentals of the Hong Kong stock market as still weak, with a slight decline in the funding environment, but maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the mid-term market trends [2] - The firm highlights sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technology, as well as low-valuation state-owned enterprises [2] - The expected performance of the Hong Kong stock market in spring 2026 is projected to be driven by "AI applications, PPI improvement, and expanded domestic demand," with a recommendation to focus on quality stocks in these areas [2]

Group 1 - JPMorgan Chase & Co. increased its stake in China Aluminum (02600.HK) by acquiring 1,799,814 shares at an average price of HKD 13.4546 per share, totaling approximately HKD 24.216 million [1] - Following this acquisition, JPMorgan's total holdings in China Aluminum rose to 198,694,532 shares, increasing its ownership percentage from 4.99% to 5.03% [1]

格隆汇1月12日丨根据联交所最新权益披露资料显示，2026年1月6日，中国铝业(02600.HK)获JPMorgan Chase & Co.以每股均价13.4546港元增持好仓179.98万 股，涉资约2421.6万港元。 增持后，JPMorgan Chase & Co.最新持好仓数目为198,694,532股，持好仓比例由4.99%上升至5.03%。 | 家宿 平 - | 大股東/華車/最高行政人員名稱 作出披露的 買入 / 賣出或涉及的股 每股的平均價 | | | | 日前午出了出版地图书 | 佔已發行的 有關事件的 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | (請參閱上述 * 註解) 有投票權限(日/月/年 | | | | | | | | 分自分市 | | CS20260109E00484 | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | 1001(L) | 1,799,814(L) | HKD 13.4546 | 198.694.532(L | 5.03(L)06/01/2026 | | | | 1403(S) | 1.145 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The aluminum industry is experiencing a seasonal inventory accumulation, with adjustments in export tax rebates for photovoltaic and battery products [1] - Despite a favorable macroeconomic environment, the industry faces challenges due to declining demand and high aluminum prices, which are suppressing downstream consumption [6][11] - The report suggests that while short-term pressures exist, the long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of January 9, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $3,136.0 per ton, up $115.0 from the previous week, and the Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price is ¥24,330.0 per ton, up ¥1,405.0 [15][21] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang is ¥24,060.0 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of ¥1,540.0 [21] 2. Production - In December 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum reached 3.781 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 144,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 197,000 tons [53] - The production of alumina in December 2025 was 7.520 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 80,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 181,000 tons [53] 3. Inventory - As of January 8, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was recorded at 714,000 tons, an increase of 54,000 tons week-on-week [7] - The alumina inventory at alumina plants increased by 33,000 tons, indicating a continued accumulation trend [9] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2026 [5]