关于港股后市 恒生指数高开0.34%，恒生科技指数涨0.21%。盘面上，有色板块活跃，中国铝业涨近3%，紫金矿业涨 近2%；小米集团涨0.54%，公司11月交付量超过4万台。 东吴证券表示，港股短期风险因素在减少，但反弹确认还需要催化剂。从中长期配置来看，当前位置有 吸引力。该行指，如果美联储降息预期升温，有利于港股回升。此外，美股AI科技泡沫叙事有所减 弱，港股科技随之回调较多，当前具备配置吸引力。 浦银国际表示，"迎合新趋势，拥抱新消费"依然将是2026年消费行业的重要投资策略。在该机构看来， 以下五大消费趋势涵盖了中国消费行业2026年大部分的投资机会：(1)高质价比国产品牌将持续占领消 费者心智(比如连锁咖啡、运动服饰、美妆)，(2)情绪类消费的需求将保持旺盛(比如潮玩、美妆、宠 物)，(3)新兴销售渠道加速崛起(比如即时零售、会员店、零食量贩)，(4)中国消费企业出海正当时(比如 潮玩、咖啡、家电)，(5)健康类消费是长期趋势(比如银发经济、保健品与医疗服务)。 本文转载自腾讯自选股，智通财经编辑：陈筱亦。 中信证券表示，在增量资金越来越多的以左侧稳健型资金为主的资金生态下，A股/港股未来可能更多地 ...

Summary of Earnings Estimates for China Commodities Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China commodities** sector, specifically covering various sub-sectors including steel, coal, cement, aluminum, copper, gold, EV metals, paper, and agriculture. Key Points in Earnings Estimates Revisions - **General Update**: Earnings estimates for China commodities have been refreshed to reflect mark-to-market price changes for Q3 2025 and the current quarter. Target price changes range from -5% to +5%, with investment ratings remaining unchanged. The changes are not viewed as material, and the overall investment thesis remains intact [1][2]. Steel Sector - **Baosteel and Maanshan-H/A**: Earnings estimates cut by 3% to 5%. Loss estimates for Angang-H/A increased by 4% for 2025E [9]. Coal Sector - **Shenhua-H/A, Yankuang-H/A, Chinacoal-H/A**: Earnings estimates updated by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on recent coal price trends. Chinacoal-H/A target price adjusted to HK$6.5 from HK$6.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Cement Sector - **CNBM, WCC, BBMG-H/A, Conch-H/A, CRBMT**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +3% for 2025-27E, reflecting recent unit gross profit trends [9]. Aluminum Sector - **Chalco-H/A and Hongqiao**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market aluminum and alumina prices. Hongqiao target price fine-tuned to HK$20.0 from HK$19.6, maintaining a Neutral rating [9]. Base Metals (Copper and Gold) - **Zijin-H/A, JXC-H/A, CMOC-H/A, MMG, Zhaojin**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market prices of copper and other metals [9]. EV Metals - **Huayou and GEM**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market nickel/cobalt prices and cathode spreads. Huayou's target price fine-tuned to Rmb32.6 from Rmb32.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Paper Sector - **ND Paper and Sun Paper**: Earnings estimates updated by 0% to 2% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market paper prices [10]. Agriculture Sector - **Hog and Feed Coverage**: Earnings estimates revised by -5% to +3% for companies like Wens, New Hope, Haid, and Dabeinong, incorporating mark-to-market hog and feed prices. For animal health and conventional seeds, estimates revised by -5% to -2% [10][13]. Target Price Methodologies and Risks - **Cement Companies**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include weaker-than-expected construction demand and slower unauthorized cement capacity exit [14]. - **Base Metals**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include lower commodity prices and operational risks [14]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of considering these estimates as part of a broader investment decision-making process, highlighting potential conflicts of interest due to Goldman Sachs' business relationships with covered companies [3]. This summary encapsulates the key updates and insights from the earnings estimates for the China commodities sector, providing a comprehensive overview of the changes and their implications for investors.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The aluminum price is experiencing high-level fluctuations due to inventory depletion and macroeconomic factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][10] - The demand for aluminum is gradually entering a low season, with the aluminum water conversion rate facing downward pressure [10] - Long-term supply growth in the aluminum industry is limited, while demand still has growth points, indicating sustained high prosperity in the industry [10] Summary by Sections 1. Price - As of November 28, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $2865.0 per ton, up $57.0 from the previous week, a 2.0% increase week-on-week, and up $263.0 year-on-year, a 10.1% increase [22] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price is 21610.0 yuan per ton, up 270.0 yuan from the previous week, a 1.3% increase week-on-week, and up 1035.0 yuan year-on-year, a 5.0% increase [22] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang is 21430.0 yuan per ton, up 70.0 yuan from the previous week, a 0.3% increase week-on-week, and up 910.0 yuan year-on-year, a 4.4% increase [22] 2. Production - In November 2025, the aluminum production is 363.7 million tons, a decrease of 10.6 million tons month-on-month, and a decrease of 6.6 million tons year-on-year [51] - The alumina production in November 2025 is 743.9 million tons, a decrease of 34.6 million tons month-on-month, but an increase of 15.2 million tons year-on-year [51] 3. Inventory - As of November 27, the domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory is 596,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons week-on-week, indicating a continued trend of inventory reduction [7] - The aluminum rod inventory is 131,000 tons, down 6500 tons week-on-week, reflecting a steady decline in inventory [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.25 yuan for 2024, increasing to 2.54 yuan in 2025E and 2.77 yuan in 2026E [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 0.96 yuan for 2024, increasing to 1.00 yuan in 2025E and 1.27 yuan in 2026E [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.91 yuan for 2024, increasing to 2.13 yuan in 2025E and 2.56 yuan in 2026E [5]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple indices in the A-share market are undergoing significant adjustments, with sample stocks being updated for various indices including the Shanghai Composite, ChiNext, and others, effective from December 12, 2025, and December 15, 2025 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Index Adjustments - The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced adjustments to the Shanghai 50, Shanghai 180, and Shanghai 380 indices, with changes to sample stocks effective after market close on December 12, 2025 [2][13]. - The Shanghai 50 index will replace four stocks: SAIC Motor, Northern Rare Earth, Huadian New Energy, and Zhongke Shuguang, while removing Poly Development, China Mobile, China Aluminum, and CRRC [2][3]. - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index will add two stocks: Aojie Technology and Shengke Communication, while removing Huaxi Biotechnology and Hangcai Co [3][4]. Group 2: Shenzhen Stock Exchange Adjustments - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange will implement sample stock adjustments for the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and others, effective December 15, 2025 [4][6]. - The Shenzhen Component Index will add 17 stocks including Tuowei Information, Sifang Chuangxin, and Wolong Nuclear Materials, while removing Guoyao Yizhi, Haide Shares, and Tibet Mining [4][6]. - The ChiNext Index will add eight stocks including Shuanglin Co., Changshan Pharmaceutical, and Changsheng Bearing [8]. Group 3: Other Index Adjustments - The China Securities Index Company announced adjustments for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and other indices, effective after market close on December 12, 2025 [11][13]. - The CSI 300 index will replace 11 stocks, adding Huadian New Energy, Shenghong Technology, Dongshan Precision, and others, while removing FAW Liberation, Oppein Home, and others [13][14]. - The CSI 500 index will replace 50 stocks, the CSI 1000 index will replace 100 stocks, and other indices will also see various adjustments [14].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced adjustments to various indices, including the Shanghai 50, Sci-Tech 50, and others, effective after market close on December 12 and December 15, 2025, respectively [1][6][13]. Index Adjustments - The Shanghai 50 Index will replace 4 stocks, including SAIC Motor, Northern Rare Earth, Huadian New Energy, and Zhongke Shuguang, while removing Poly Developments, China Mobile, China Aluminum, and CRRC [1][2]. - The Shanghai 180 Index will add 7 stocks, including Guotou Capital and Zhongtian Technology, and remove stocks like COSCO Shipping Energy and Nanshan Aluminum [3][4]. - The Shanghai 380 Index will see 38 stocks added, including COSCO Shipping Energy and Jinfa Technology, while removing Guotou Capital and Furuida [4][5]. - The Sci-Tech 50 Index will add Aojie Technology and Shengke Communication, removing Huaxi Biotechnology and Hangcai Co [5][6]. Shenzhen Stock Exchange Adjustments - The Shenzhen Component Index will add 17 stocks, including Deep Shenzhen A and Demingli, while removing stocks like China National Pharmaceutical and Tibet Mining [6][8]. - The ChiNext Index will add 8 stocks, including Shuanglin Co. and Changshan Pharmaceutical, while removing stocks like Biyuan and Yihualu [8][12]. - The Shenzhen 100 Index will add 7 stocks, including Cangge Mining and Guohang, while removing stocks like Tianshan Shares and Shanxi Coking Coal [9][11]. - The ChiNext 50 Index will add 5 stocks, including Changshan Pharmaceutical and Feili Hua, while removing stocks like Terui De and Mango Super Media [12]. Other Index Adjustments - The CSI 300 Index will replace 11 stocks, including Huadian New Energy and Dongshan Precision, effective after market close on December 12 [13][14]. - The CSI 500 Index will replace 50 stocks, including Heertai and Huahong Technology, effective after market close on December 12 [15][16]. - The CSI 1000 Index will replace 100 stocks, including Shijia Photon and Yongding Shares, effective after market close on December 12 [17][18]. - The CSI A50 Index will replace 4 stocks, including Huagong Technology and Guangqi Technology [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple indices in the A-share market are undergoing significant adjustments, with announcements made by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges regarding changes to sample stocks in various indices, effective in December 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Index Adjustments - The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced adjustments to the Shanghai 50, Shanghai 180, and Shanghai 380 indices, with changes effective after market close on December 12, 2025 [2]. - The Shanghai 50 index will replace four stocks, adding SAIC Motor, Northern Rare Earth, Huadian New Energy, and Zhongke Shuguang, while removing Poly Developments, China Mobile, China Aluminum, and CRRC [3][4]. - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index will replace two stocks, adding Aojie Technology and Shengke Communication, while removing Huaxi Biotechnology and Hangcai Co [4][5]. Group 2: Shenzhen Stock Exchange Adjustments - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced sample stock adjustments for the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shenzhen 100, and ChiNext 50, effective December 15, 2025 [5][7]. - The Shenzhen Component Index will add 17 stocks, including Tuowei Information, Sifang Jingchuang, and Wolong Nuclear Materials, while removing Guoyao Yizhi, Haide Shares, and Tibet Mining [7][9]. - The ChiNext Index will add eight stocks, including Shuanglin Co., Changshan Pharmaceutical, and Changsheng Bearing [9]. Group 3: Zhongzheng Index Adjustments - The Zhongzheng Index Company announced adjustments to the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI A50, CSI A100, and CSI A500 indices, effective after market close on December 12, 2025 [13][14]. - The CSI 300 index will replace 11 stocks, adding Huadian New Energy, Shenghong Technology, Shandong Precision, and others, while removing FAW Liberation, Oppein Home, and others [13][14]. - The CSI 500 index will replace 50 stocks, the CSI 1000 index will replace 100 stocks, the CSI A50 index will replace four stocks, the CSI A100 index will replace six stocks, and the CSI A500 index will replace 20 stocks [14].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple indices in the A-share market are undergoing significant adjustments, with announcements made by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges regarding changes to sample stocks in various indices [2][4]. Group 1: Index Adjustments - On November 28, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced adjustments to the sample stocks of the Shanghai 50, Shanghai 180, Shanghai 380, and Sci-Tech 50 indices, effective after the market closes on December 12, 2025 [4][14]. - The Shanghai 50 index will replace four stocks, including the addition of SAIC Motor, Northern Rare Earth, Huadian New Energy, and Zhongke Shuguang, while Poly Development, China Mobile, China Aluminum, and CRRC will be removed [5][17]. - The Sci-Tech 50 index will replace two stocks, adding Aojie Technology and Shengke Communication, while Huaxi Biotechnology and Hangcai Co. will be removed [5][6]. Group 2: Shenzhen Stock Exchange Adjustments - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced that it will implement regular sample stock adjustments for the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shenzhen 100, and ChiNext 50 on December 15, 2025 [6][14]. - The Shenzhen Component Index will add 17 stocks, including Tuowei Information, Sifang Jingchuang, and Wolong Nuclear Materials, while Guoyao Yizhi, Haide Shares, and Tibet Mining will be removed [6][7]. Group 3: Additional Index Changes - The ChiNext Index will add eight stocks, including Shuanglin Co., Changshan Pharmaceutical, and Changsheng Bearing [9][11]. - The CSI 300, CSI 500, and other indices will also undergo adjustments, with the CSI 300 replacing 11 stocks, including Huadian New Energy and Shenghong Technology, while removing FAW Liberation and Oppein Home [16][17]. - The CSI 500 index will replace 50 stocks, the CSI 1000 index will replace 100 stocks, and the CSI A50 and A100 indices will replace 4 and 6 stocks respectively [17].

| 调出名单 | | 调入名单 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | | 600048 | 保利发展 | 600104 | 上汽集团 | | 600941 | 中国移动 | 600111 | 北方稀土 | | 601600 | 中国铝业 | 600930 | 华电新能 | | 601766 | 中国中车 | 603019 | 中科曙光 | | 调出名单 | | | 调入名单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | | 600026 | 中远海能 | 600061 | 国投资本 | | 600219 | 南山铝业 | 600522 | 中天科技 | | 601058 | 赛轮轮胎 | 600930 | 华电新能 | | 601699 | 潞安环能 | 601456 | 国联民生 | | 601808 | 中海油服 | 603893 | 瑞芯微 | | 688169 | 石头科技 | 688082 | 盛美上海 | | 688589 | 天合光能 | 688 ...

Aluminum expert call key takeaways: update on ex-China expansion We hosted an expert call with Mr. Yang Liu from Aladdiny about the progresses on capacity expansion outside of China, with a focus on Indonesia. Power supply is a key constraint which is unlikely to ease before 2028, and the expert see tight market balance in 2026/27. More details below. Global expansion overview: tight balance in 2026-27. In 2019-2025, the majority of capacity growth came from China (4mtpa+ out of ~8mtpa globally), Russia con ...

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum's stock price has increased significantly, rising from HKD 3.98 to HKD 10.48, a gain of over 160% in seven months, indicating a potential continuation of this bullish trend [1] Acquisition Details - Yunnan Aluminum, a subsidiary of China Aluminum, plans to acquire stakes in three companies from Yunnan Metallurgy for a total consideration of CNY 2.267 billion, to be paid in two installments [1][5] - The acquisition aims to enhance the net profit attributable to shareholders and optimize the equity structure of Yunnan Aluminum [1][5] Financial Performance of Target Companies - The three target companies have varying performance; Yunnan Aluminum Yongxin is expected to have a net profit of CNY 608 million in 2024, while Yunnan Aluminum Runxin's profit is projected to drop by 72.3% to CNY 104 million, and Yunnan Aluminum Hongxin is expected to incur a loss of CNY 3 million [1][5] Valuation Methods - The valuation of the target companies was conducted using asset-based and income approaches, with significant discrepancies noted; for instance, Yunnan Aluminum Yongxin's valuation ranged from CNY 3.038 billion to CNY 5.308 billion [2][4] - The acquisition will result in a total goodwill of CNY 1.099 billion, representing 48.5% of the acquisition price [2][4] Financial Impact on China Aluminum - Post-acquisition, the net asset value of Yunnan Aluminum will increase by CNY 1.255 billion, and goodwill will rise by CNY 1.099 billion, impacting China Aluminum's financial statements positively [5][6] - The acquisition resolves competition issues within China Aluminum's subsidiaries and allows for a more focused expansion in aluminum products [6][7] Market Outlook and Shareholder Returns - China Aluminum has a history of generous dividends, with cumulative payouts reaching CNY 9.2 billion since 2021, and a dividend payout ratio of 21% [8] - Institutional investors, including CITIC Securities, have shown confidence in the company, increasing their holdings significantly [8][9] - Analysts predict continued growth in net profit, with estimates for 2025-2027 ranging from CNY 146.35 billion to CNY 177.2 billion, reflecting a positive outlook for the company [9]