证券Ⅱ 分析师：张洋 登记编码：S0730516040002 zhangyang-yjs@ccnew.com 021-50586627 投资收益连续高增，归母净利重回百亿 ——中国银河(601881)2024 年年报点评 证券研究报告-年报点评 增持(维持) 市场数据(2025-04-08) | 收盘价(元) | 14.88 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低(元) | 18.70/9.81 | | 沪深 300 指数 | 3,650.76 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.47 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,627.04 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,627.04 | | 基础数据(2024-12-31) | | | 每股净资产(元) | 10.12 | | 总资产(亿元) | 7,374.71 | | 所有者权益(亿元) | 1,404.81 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 8.30 | | 总股本(亿股) | 109.34 | | H 股(亿股) | 36.91 | 个股相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：聚源、中原证券 -14% -2% 9% 21% 33% 44% 56% 67 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple Chinese securities firms, including China Galaxy and Huatai Securities, reported over 50% growth in net profit for the first quarter of 2025, driven by strong performance in wealth management, credit trading, and investment trading [2][12]. Group 1: Company Performance - China Galaxy expects a net profit of 2.773 billion to 3.1 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 70% to 90% [3]. - Huatai Securities anticipates a net profit of 3.437 billion to 3.666 billion yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 50% to 60% [4]. - Huazhong Securities projects a net profit of 502 million to 558 million yuan for Q1 2025, with an increase of 80% to 100% year-on-year [6]. - CITIC Securities expects a net profit of approximately 6.545 billion yuan for Q1 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of about 32% [11]. - Guotai Haitong forecasts a net profit of 11.201 billion to 12.445 billion yuan for Q1 2025, indicating a significant increase of 350% to 400% year-on-year [11]. - Industrial Securities anticipates a net profit of 516 million yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57.32% [11]. - Dongwu Securities expects a net profit of 912 million to 1.003 billion yuan for Q1 2025, with a growth of 100% to 120% year-on-year [11]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - Analysts express optimism regarding the securities industry, citing ongoing efforts by the China Securities Regulatory Commission to promote long-term capital inflows and enhance market activity [12]. - Predictions indicate that listed securities firms will see a 21% increase in operating revenue and a 23% increase in net profit year-on-year for Q1 2025 [12]. - The securities sector is viewed as a high-beta segment, with major firms likely to benefit from government support and market stabilization efforts [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple securities firms are expected to report strong performance in the first quarter of 2025, driven by significant growth in wealth management, investment trading, and investment banking businesses [2][3][4]. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - Galaxy Securities anticipates a net profit of 27.73 billion to 31 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 70% to 90% [3]. - CITIC Securities expects a net profit of approximately 65.45 billion yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a growth of around 32% year-on-year [4]. - Guotai Junan forecasts a net profit of 112.01 billion to 124.45 billion yuan for Q1 2025, with an expected increase of 350% to 400% year-on-year [4][5]. - Industrial Securities reported a revenue of 27.92 billion yuan for Q1 2025, up 17.48% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.16 billion yuan, increasing by 57.32% [6]. - Dongwu Securities projects a net profit of 9.12 billion to 10.03 billion yuan for Q1 2025, indicating a growth of 100% to 120% year-on-year [7]. Group 2: Business Growth Drivers - The growth in net profits for these firms is primarily attributed to substantial increases in wealth management and investment trading revenues [4][5][6]. - Guotai Junan's profit growth is also linked to the absorption merger that generated negative goodwill, enhancing its competitive position in core business areas [5]. - The overall market activity has improved, leading to expectations of better-than-expected earnings reports from securities firms [8]. Group 3: Share Buybacks - Several securities firms are initiating share buyback programs to boost market confidence, including Guojin Securities, which plans to repurchase shares worth between 50 million and 100 million yuan [8][9]. - Guotai Junan has proposed a buyback plan with a total fund of 1 billion to 2 billion yuan to enhance shareholder value [9]. - Dongfang Securities intends to repurchase A-shares with a budget of 250 million to 500 million yuan, further indicating a trend among firms to stabilize their stock prices [9].

Financial Performance Forecast - China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. expects Q1 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders to be between RMB 2.773 billion and RMB 3.1 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 70% to 90%[2] - The net profit for Q1 2024 was RMB 1.631 billion, with a basic earnings per share of RMB 0.12[4] - The significant growth in Q1 2025 is attributed to the company's proactive market strategies and substantial increases in wealth management, investment trading, and investment banking businesses[5] Performance Forecast Reliability - The performance forecast data is preliminary and has not been audited by registered accountants[3] - The company has not identified any major uncertainties that could affect the accuracy of the performance forecast[6] Investor Considerations - Investors are advised to consider various factors, including macroeconomic conditions and market trends, that may impact the company's stock price[7]

周三，A股低开高走，上证指数、深证成指涨幅均超过1%，科创50指数大涨4.31%，北证50指数更是暴涨10.27%。 其四，中国居民消费潜力巨大，"投资于人"战略方向准确、工具丰富，努力把消费打造成经济增长的主动力和压舱石，对于短期经 济企稳和中长期结构调整都具有战略意义。 银河宏观在年初两会和预算草案公布时便提出：今年年初政策较为积极的基础上，亦留有"后手"应对可能出现的外部冲击。除了对 应的反制措施外，内需政策加码亦将是应对美国关税政策的主要对冲手段。 根据银河宏观前期测算，今年加征54%关税幅度对我国出口增速整体拖累或超5-6.5个百分点，对GDP增速影响在1-1.5个百分点左 右。 银河宏观指出，中国具有巨大的储备政策空间。其一，与美国过去几年无节制的财政扩张相比，中国过去的政策保持了相当的定 力，这给这一轮政策应对留足了空间。 其二，过去一段时间，中国前瞻部署防范化解重大风险，大力推进房地产发展新模式、大规模化解地方政府隐性债务等，使得经济 发展更加平稳健康。 其三，与美国相比，中国目前物价水平相对较低，这也使得财政政策进一步扩张更少受到通胀压力的掣肘。 银河宏观认为4月政治局会议加码内需的概率进一 ...

中国银河：中央汇金增持的是A股市场的核心宽基指数 能起到稳定指数、稳定大盘的作用 智通财经4月8日电，在中央汇金7日发布的公告中，明确增持交易型开放式指数基金（ETF），而且是 再次增持。专家表示，从星期一A股收盘前的成交量来看，中央汇金此次主要增持的是追踪包括"沪深 300""上证50"等在内的交易型开放式指数基金，这些基金涵盖的股票，行业范围广、市值权重大，对指 数有比较强的影响。中国银河证券执委会委员刘冰表示，中央汇金增持的是A股市场的核心宽基指数， 具有很强的市场代表性和投资价值，而且容纳了沪深主要的成分股、行业龙头，增持的举动，能起到稳 定指数、稳定大盘的作用，同时向市场传递坚决维护资本市场平稳运行的明确信号。值得注意的是，本 次公告强调"再次增持"。记者查阅公开资料发现，最近几年，每逢A股市场波动剧烈之时，中央汇金就 通过买入交易型开放式指数基金来维护市场稳定。并且在去年，中央汇金就曾公告，扩大交易型开放式 指数基金增持范围。最新数据显示，2024年底中央汇金对交易型开放式指数基金的配置规模已达到1.05 万亿元。 (央视财经) ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：601881 证券简称：中国银河 公告编号：2025-023 中国银河证券股份有限公司 关于召开2024年度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 会议召开时间：2025年4月16日（星期三）下午15:00-16:00 会议召开地点：上海证券交易所上证路演中心（网址：https://roadshow.sseinfo.com/） 会议召开方式：上证路演中心视频直播和网络互动 投资者可于2025年4月9日（星期三）至4月15日（星期二）16:00前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提 问预征集"栏目或通过中国银河证券股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）邮箱 zgyh@chinastock.com.cn进行 提问。公司将在说明会上对投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 公司已于2025年3月29日发布公司2024年度报告，为便于广大投资者更全面深入地了解公司2024年度经 营成果、财务状况，公司计划于2025年4月16日下午15:00-16 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the brokerage industry, highlighting significant growth in Q4 performance driven by brokerage and investment activities [1][2]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the brokerage industry showed a remarkable increase in Q4, with a year-on-year profit growth of 97%. The total revenue for 2024 reached 369.8 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 113.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 15% increase [1][9]. - The report emphasizes that the brokerage and investment sectors are the main growth drivers, with brokerage income in Q4 reaching 30.2 billion yuan, up 86% year-on-year, and investment income at 29.4 billion yuan, up 13% year-on-year [1][10]. - The report also notes a significant improvement in the asset situation, with total assets and net assets of the listed brokerages reaching 9.2 trillion yuan and 1.7 trillion yuan, respectively, both up 3% from the previous quarter [1][15]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - Q4 performance was significantly boosted by brokerage and investment activities, with a 97% increase in net profit. The annualized average ROE for listed brokerages was 6.6%, showing slight improvements [1][9]. - The total revenue for 2024 was 369.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of 113.9 billion yuan, marking a 15% increase year-on-year [1][9]. Business Breakdown - **Brokerage Business**: The average daily trading volume for the industry reached 1.2 trillion yuan in 2024, a 22% increase year-on-year, with Q4 seeing a 119% increase [2][34]. - **Investment Business**: The investment income for Q4 was 29.4 billion yuan, up 13% year-on-year, contributing significantly to overall revenue [1][10]. - **Asset Management**: The asset management business showed resilience, with total assets under management reaching 5.5 trillion yuan, a 3% increase from the beginning of the year [2][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brokerages that are expected to exceed Q1 performance expectations and highlights potential merger and acquisition opportunities within the brokerage sector [2][10].

证券代码：601881 证券简称：中国银河 公告编号：2025-023 一、 说明会类型 本次投资者说明会以视频直播和网络互动形式召开，公司将针对 2024 年度 经营成果及财务指标的具体情况与投资者进行互动交流和沟通，在信息披露允许 的范围内就投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 二、 说明会召开的时间、地点 （一） 会议召开时间：2025 年 4 月 16 日下午 15:00-16:00 中国银河证券股份有限公司 关于召开 2024 年度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导 性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及 连带责任。 重要内容提示： （网址：https://roadshow.sseinfo.com/） 会议召开方式：上证路演中心视频直播和网络互动 投资者可于 2025 年 4 月 9 日（星期三）至 4 月 15 日（星期二）16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目或通过中国银河证 券股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）邮箱 zgyh@chinastock.com.cn 进行 提问。公司将在说明会上对投资者普遍关注的问题 ...

经纪收入增速较高，投资业务驱动增长 ——中国银河 2024 年年报点评报告 投资要点 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 证券Ⅱ ❑ 业绩概览 2024 年中国银河实现营业收入 354.7 亿元，同比增长 5.43%；归母净利润 100.3 亿元，同比增长 27.31%；加权平均净资产收益率 8.30%，同比增加 0.74pct。 2024 年公司经纪、投行、资管、利息、投资净收入同比增速分别为 12%/11%/6%/-8%/50%，占比分别为 17%/2%/1%/11%/32%。 ❑ 经纪业务收入增速大幅改善 2024 年中国银河实现经纪业务净收入 61.9 亿，同比增长 12%，较 9M24 的-12% 显著提高，主要得益于 24Q4 市场日均股基成交额同比增长 119%至 20,684 亿 元。财富管理方面，公司代销金融产品超 800 亿元，年末代销金融产品保有规模 为 2,111 亿元，同比增长 7.8%。"银河金熠"累计签约客户超过 7,400 人。科技 赋能方面，公司升级自研投顾平台"G-Winstar"，通过 DeepSeek-R1"全尺寸" 模型与通义千问模型的深度适配优化，加强 AI 技术在业务 ...