来源：中国银河策略 核心观点 本周港股行情表现：（1）本周（2025年12月29日至2026年1月2日），全球主要股指多数上涨。其中， 恒生指数涨2.01%，恒生科技指数涨4.31%，恒生中国企业指数涨2.85%。（2）港股行业层面：一级行 业中，本周7个行业上涨，4个行业下跌。其中，信息技术、能源、材料行业指数分别上涨4.54%、 3.97%、2.98%；日常消费、公用事业、医疗保健行业指数跌幅居前，分别下跌2.25%、1.60%、0.59%。 从二级行业来看，本周半导体、国防军工、石油石化、软件服务、造纸与包装行业指数涨幅居前，家庭 用品、耐用消费品、消费者服务、日常消费零售、纺织服装行业指数跌幅居前。 本周港股流动性：（1）本周港交所日均成交额1711.9亿港元，较上周增加312.64亿港元。日均沽空金额 为199.27亿港元，较上周增加29.61亿港元；沽空金额占成交额比例的日均值为11.78%，较上周下降0.22 个百分点。（2）本周南向资金累计净流出38.1亿港元，较上周净流入额减少63.71亿港元。 风险提示 国内政策力度及效果不及预期风险；海外降息不及预期风险；市场情绪不稳定风险。 正文 一、 ...

中国银河证券研究表示，中央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。全国财政工作会议 对2026年财政政策进行了进一步部署。当前，国内经济底层逻辑正在从土地财政全面转向因地制宜发展 新质生产力，这个过程中财政政策的重要性愈发显现。从2023年内增发国债到2024年发行超长期特别国 债再到2025年提高狭义赤字率，财政政策在新旧动能转换过程中发挥了重要作用。展望2026年，中国银 河证券认为财政政策呈现以下特征：一是扩大支出盘子，保持必要支出强度，预计广义赤字率与2025年 基本持平；二是优化支出方向，尤其加大对于内需和科技的支持力度，灵活运用超长期特别国债和财政 贴息等工具；三是财政靠前发力，保持"早发快用"节奏，力争"十五五"元年取得良好开局。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The mission of the securities industry is to strengthen overseas layout, enhance competitiveness in global financial markets, and build a world-class investment bank, which has become an inevitable choice for Chinese securities firms due to fluctuations in domestic business income and the growing demand for cross-border investment and financing [1][3]. Group 1: Challenges in Overseas Expansion - Chinese securities firms have been expanding internationally for over 30 years, but they now face significant challenges due to stricter capital flow regulations and increased compliance risks amid global economic turmoil [2][3]. - The macroeconomic environment, characterized by frequent adjustments in U.S. trade and economic policies, has led to market volatility, posing challenges to the development of overseas businesses for Chinese securities firms [3]. - Structural challenges, including geopolitical conflicts and slowing global economic growth, are reshaping the competitive landscape of global financial markets, testing the internationalization strategies of Chinese securities firms [3]. Group 2: Opportunities for Growth - Despite challenges, there are opportunities for Chinese securities firms, particularly in Southeast Asia, where the firm aims to enhance its comprehensive financial service capabilities and international competitiveness [4][6]. - The firm emphasizes the importance of cooperation with ASEAN countries, highlighting the strong willingness of various partners to engage in bilateral investment and capital flow [5][6]. Group 3: Constraints on Overseas Subsidiaries - The operational capabilities of overseas subsidiaries of Chinese securities firms are constrained by factors such as capital, management, talent, and culture [2][7]. - Capital constraints are significant, as the capital scale of Chinese securities firms is considerably lower than that of international peers, affecting their ability to develop capital business and electronic trading platforms [7]. - Management challenges arise from differences in management philosophies and decision-making processes between headquarters and local teams, impacting operational efficiency [7][8]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - To navigate internationalization successfully, firms should leverage their strengths, focus on core regions and businesses, and enhance their service capabilities for Chinese enterprises going abroad [9]. - Maintaining strict compliance with risk management and understanding financial market risk hedging tools is crucial for managing market, credit, and liquidity risks [9]. - Strengthening cultural integration and business collaboration between domestic and overseas teams is essential for optimizing profit models and improving market adaptability [9].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國銀河證券股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年12月31日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 06881 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,690,984,633 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 3,690,984,633 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 3,690,984,633 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 3,690,984,633 | | 2 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國銀河證券股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年12月31日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： RMB 10,934,402,256 備註： 第 1 頁 共 11 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 因本公司於中華人民共和國註冊成立，"法定/註冊股本"之概念不適用於本公司。在上述第I部顯示「法定/註冊股本」的資料即本公司的已發行股本。 FF301 第 2 頁 共 11 頁 v 1.1.1 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 06881 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,6 ...

Group 1 - The steel industry has shown significant improvement in profitability, with effective cost control measures in place [1] - The demand side is adjusting due to real estate sector changes, while new infrastructure and renewable energy are supporting the demand for manufacturing steel [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a plan for the steel industry, targeting an average annual value-added growth of around 4% from 2025 to 2026 [1] Group 2 - In the first three quarters of 2025, the steel sector achieved a net profit of 20.147 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year turnaround [2] - The average sales gross margin for the industry increased to 12.35%, up 1.33 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [1][2] - The third quarter of 2025 saw the steel sector achieve a net profit of 8.716 billion yuan, marking a 12.16% quarter-on-quarter increase and a significant year-on-year recovery [2] Group 3 - Leading steel companies have demonstrated stable revenue and a faster recovery in profitability, with Shougang Corporation reporting a net profit increase of 368.13% year-on-year [3] - The profitability improvement is broadening, with several companies in the sector achieving a turnaround in net profit [3] - Fangda Special Steel reported a sales gross margin of 10.44% and a net profit margin of 5.97%, highlighting the profitability advantages of high-end special steel products [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the successful completion of the first counter bond transaction between China and Singapore, marking a significant step in cross-border financial connectivity and the opening of the capital market [1][2] - China Galaxy Securities' overseas subsidiary, Galaxy Overseas, has become the first institution to participate in the newly established counter bond market between China and Singapore, showcasing its execution and innovation capabilities [1] - The transaction is part of a broader initiative to enhance financial cooperation between China and Singapore, as outlined in the 2025 financial cooperation document, which emphasizes the interconnectivity of the bond markets [1][2] Group 2 - Bank of China, as the only authorized Chinese bank for the counter bond project, has created an efficient channel for qualified foreign investors to access the Chinese interbank bond market, providing comprehensive services including account opening, trading, registration, and settlement [2] - The initiative aligns with China's Belt and Road strategy, promoting cross-border financial innovation and market connectivity, while supporting the internationalization of the Renminbi [2] - China Galaxy Securities aims to leverage its international presence to actively participate in Belt and Road projects, contributing to the dual opening of financial markets and the establishment of a higher-level open economy [2]

Core Insights - The annual evaluation results for the investment banking business in China reveal a shift in the competitive landscape, with non-traditional top firms making significant gains while established leaders face setbacks due to regulatory penalties [1][3][4] Group 1: Overall Evaluation Results - The China Securities Association published comprehensive evaluations covering investment banking, bond business, and financial advisory services for the year 2024, with 93 firms participating [3][5] - Among the evaluated firms, 12 were rated A-class, 66 B-class, and 15 C-class, representing 12.90%, 70.97%, and 16.13% of the total respectively [3] - Notably, half of the A-class firms are not traditional top revenue earners, indicating a diversification in the quality of investment banking services [1][3] Group 2: Bond Business Evaluation - The bond business evaluation included 95 firms, with 14 rated A-class, 62 B-class, and 19 C-class, corresponding to 14.74%, 65.26%, and 20.00% respectively [6] - Major firms like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities, despite high underwriting volumes, did not achieve A-class ratings due to regulatory issues, while lower-ranked firms like Caixin Securities did [1][6][10] Group 3: Financial Advisory Services Evaluation - The financial advisory services evaluation was limited to 30 firms, with only 5 achieving A-class ratings, all of which are top-tier institutions [2][11] - The evaluation reflects a high concentration of resources among leading investment banks, with a significant disparity between A-class and lower-rated firms [2][12] - The evaluation criteria for financial advisory services differ from those for investment banking, focusing solely on M&A performance, which allows firms like CITIC Jinpu to excel despite lower overall ratings in other categories [12][13] Group 4: Regulatory Impact - Regulatory penalties have a substantial impact on the evaluation outcomes, with firms like CITIC Jinpu receiving multiple penalties that affected their ratings, while others like Shenwan Hongyuan faced scrutiny without major violations [4][5][9] - The evaluation process considers not only the performance during the evaluation period but also significant violations that occur afterward, indicating a long-term view on compliance [10] Group 5: Market Dynamics - The evaluations signal a shift in the investment banking landscape, where compliance and internal control quality are becoming more critical than mere scale, reshaping competition and market dynamics [2][3] - The concentration of top-tier firms in financial advisory services suggests a growing trend towards specialization and expertise in high-stakes areas like M&A [12][16]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic EDA industry is currently experiencing a "policy-driven + technological breakthrough + high demand" triple resonance period, suggesting significant investment opportunities in core industry chain targets for the long term [1] Industry Positioning - EDA is a core technology for electronic system design automation, positioned at the upstream of the integrated circuit industry chain, influencing chip design efficiency, production costs, and performance, thereby impacting the global digital economy worth trillions of dollars [2] Market Dynamics - The global EDA market is highly concentrated, with three major players (Synopsys, Cadence, Siemens EDA) holding 74% market share. The global EDA market is projected to reach $18.3 billion by 2026 and exceed $30 billion by 2034. In China, the market size is expected to reach 22.2 billion yuan by 2026, with a growth rate of 20%, significantly higher than overseas [3] Growth Drivers - Three key factors are driving industry growth: 1. Domestic substitution is becoming essential due to U.S. export controls on EDA software, particularly for advanced process tools below 7nm, pushing domestic EDA companies to accelerate localization [4] 2. Technological and demand upgrades are emerging as design costs for advanced processes from 7nm to 3nm increase exponentially, with new demands arising from post-Moore era designs like Chiplet, 3D IC, and heterogeneous integration [4] 3. Industry consolidation is accelerating as the current Chinese EDA market is fragmented, with leading domestic EDA firms enhancing their product lines and overall strength through mergers and acquisitions [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market is entering a critical data validation period in January 2026, influenced by policy implementation, macro data, corporate performance, and liquidity changes, leading to increased volatility and a tendency for phase rebalancing [1] - Sectors that led in December, such as defense, 6G, and satellite internet, require performance or order validation to digest their gains, while themes with clear industrial trends like commercial aerospace and AI computing may still present active opportunities [1] - The strategic resource attributes of certain non-ferrous metal sectors, particularly strategic minor metals like antimony, tungsten, and rare earths, are being revalued by the market due to their essential role in technological breakthroughs and their strategic scarcity [1] Group 2 - Three key industry directions are highlighted: first, strategic resources and cyclical recovery sectors, focusing on upstream resource products with strategic scarcity, including industrial metals (copper), strategic minor metals, and energy metals (potash) [2] - Second, the focus is on technological self-reliance and new productivity sectors, emphasizing clear industrial trends and high visibility in performance for leading companies in areas such as AI computing, digital economy, semiconductor domestic substitution, and commercial aerospace [2] - Third, there is an emphasis on domestic demand recovery and structural improvement, with some domestic demand sectors having attractive valuations after prolonged adjustments [2]