Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [5]. Core Views - The report indicates an optimistic outlook for the fundamentals of the metal industry, particularly in lithium and rare earths, with expectations of price stabilization in the short term due to various supply and demand factors [2][3][4]. Steel Industry Summary - The steel industry is entering a consumption off-season, with increasing pressure on steel prices due to declining profits at steel mills and planned maintenance leading to expected supply reductions. Short-term steel prices are anticipated to fluctuate [17][24]. - As of November 7, 2025, the total steel inventory was 14.92 million tons, a decrease of 0.60% from the previous period but an increase of 22.87% year-on-year [24]. - The average price of steel on November 7, 2025, was 3,419.80 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.09% from the previous period and an 8.08% decline year-on-year [35]. Copper Industry Summary - The copper market is experiencing tight supply due to accidents at major overseas mines, which is providing support for copper prices. The report highlights the importance of upcoming U.S. economic data on copper price trends [4][40]. - As of November 7, 2025, the LME copper spot price was $10,700/ton, a decrease of 1.66% from the previous period [42]. Aluminum Industry Summary - The aluminum sector is facing challenges with low alumina prices impacting profits, while domestic demand is shifting from strong to weak. The report suggests that aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term [5][44]. - On November 7, 2025, the LME aluminum spot price was $2,800/ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.53% from the previous period [45]. Gold Industry Summary - The gold market is influenced by geopolitical factors and U.S. economic conditions, with recent data showing support for gold prices despite pressure from hawkish Federal Reserve statements. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring U.S. economic indicators and geopolitical developments [50][52]. Lithium and Rare Earths Summary - The lithium market is expected to see price stabilization in the short term, with the resumption of production at CATL's projects potentially exerting downward pressure on prices. However, strong fundamentals are expected to provide support [3][57]. - The rare earth market is anticipated to improve with increasing demand for neodymium-iron-boron, which is expected to support rare earth prices [3].

Core Insights - Zijin Mining experienced a decline of 1.82% on November 11, closing at 29.62 yuan with a significant block trade involving 3.6 million shares and a total transaction value of 107 million yuan [1] Trading Activity - The first transaction was executed at a price of 29.62 yuan for 3.6 million shares, amounting to 106.63 million yuan, with a premium rate of 0.00%. The buyer was Huatai Securities Co., Ltd. headquarters, and the seller was an institutional entity [1] - Over the past three months, Zijin Mining has recorded a total of 28 block trades, with a cumulative transaction value of 2.541 billion yuan [1] - In the last five trading days, the stock has increased by 2.92%, with a net inflow of 228 million yuan from major funds [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, recommending specific companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [4]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a significant increase in profitability, with overall profits rising year-on-year in Q3 2025. The sector's performance is driven by a new resource cycle, with copper and aluminum showing strong price increases [2][3]. - The report highlights a divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with precious metals, base metals, and energy metals all experiencing different trends in profitability and price movements [2][3]. Summary by Sections Overall Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has increased by 93.45% since the beginning of 2025, with a 47.02% rise in Q3 2025, ranking it second among sectors [1][9][15]. Sub-sector Analysis - **Base Metals**: In Q3 2025, copper and aluminum prices rose by 5.90% and 5.64% year-on-year, respectively, with net profits increasing by 56% and 38% [2][44]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices increased by 39.88% year-on-year, with net profits for the precious metals sector rising by 55.89% [2][44]. - **Energy Metals**: Lithium prices saw a decline of 8.0%, while cobalt prices increased by 49.2% year-on-year, indicating a mixed performance in this sub-sector [2][44]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued optimism for copper and aluminum, driven by expectations of demand growth from AI data centers and a global easing of monetary policy. Key recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [3][4]. - For energy metals, the report notes an improvement in the lithium supply-demand balance and recommends companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Huayou Cobalt [3][4]. - In the precious metals sector, the report maintains a long-term bullish outlook on gold prices, recommending stocks such as Western Gold and Shandong Gold [3][4]. Financial Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector's net profit for Q3 2025 increased by 50.92% year-on-year, with a notable rise in gross profit margins [31][32]. - The report indicates that the sales gross margin and net margin have been on an upward trend since 2019, with Q3 2025 showing a recovery in profitability [31][32]. Market Trends - The report identifies a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector compared to major indices, with the sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 [15][16]. - The report also notes that the sub-sectors of rare earths and silver have shown particularly strong performance, with significant price increases [19][21].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the precious metals sector, indicating a potential upward trend in gold prices due to central bank purchases and a favorable macroeconomic environment [3][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the central bank's continuous gold purchases over the past 12 months are expected to support gold prices in the long term, with a projected upward adjustment in the price center [3][19]. - The industrial metals sector is anticipated to experience price increases driven by stable supply-demand dynamics, particularly in copper and aluminum, with recommendations for specific companies in these sectors [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.08%, while the non-ferrous metals index fell by 0.04%, underperforming the broader market [4][6]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has increased by 75.83%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 56.92 percentage points [4][8]. Precious Metals - The report notes a 2.53% decline in precious metals prices over the past week, with a year-to-date increase of 65.43% [9]. - The central bank's gold purchases are expected to continue, with a focus on long-term price stability and potential increases in gold ETF inflows [3][19]. Industrial Metals - Copper production is expected to be impacted by supply disruptions, with a projected 35% decrease in output from Freeport's Grasberg mine due to a recent landslide [3][24]. - The report indicates that aluminum prices are likely to trend upward due to tightening supply-demand conditions, with specific companies recommended for investment [3][40]. Key Companies and Valuations - The report provides valuations for key companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, indicating potential investment opportunities [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The copper prices have surged significantly due to supply-demand imbalances, geopolitical risks, and domestic policy expectations, with LME copper futures reaching a high of $11,146 per ton, marking an annual increase of over 25% [2][3]. Supply Factors - Multiple supply disruptions have occurred, including seismic events at major copper mines, which are expected to widen the supply-demand gap for copper by 2026 [3]. - The global copper supply is under pressure, with significant incidents reported at major mines such as the Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg mines [3]. Demand Factors - The demand for copper is being driven by new economic sectors, particularly in renewable energy and electric vehicles, which are expected to significantly increase copper consumption [4][5]. - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper, leading to a regional mismatch in inventory and demand, further tightening the supply in non-U.S. regions [3]. Performance of Leading Companies - Major copper mining companies like Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper have reported substantial revenue and profit growth due to rising copper prices and increased production [6][7]. - Zijin Mining's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 254.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.33%, with net profit rising by 55.45% [6]. - Jiangxi Copper maintained stable production levels and reported a significant stock price increase, with a year-to-date rise of over 116% [7]. Downstream Companies' Challenges - Downstream companies are facing cost pressures due to high copper prices, leading to mixed opinions on whether to adjust product prices [9]. - Companies like Shengyi Technology have already adjusted prices, while others like Nanya PCB have opted not to increase prices, focusing on maintaining strong supplier relationships [9][10]. Market Outlook - There are differing views on the future trajectory of copper prices, with some analysts predicting a potential stabilization in prices due to macroeconomic factors and demand uncertainties [11]. - The focus for future copper price movements will be on global economic expectations and potential easing of geopolitical tensions, which could support price increases [11].

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with a year-to-date increase of 102.19%, despite a recent decline in trading [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 11, Zijin Mining's stock price was 29.56 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 27.40 billion CNY and a market capitalization of 785.63 billion CNY [1]. - The stock experienced a net outflow of 1.98 billion CNY in principal funds, with large orders buying 8.00 billion CNY and selling 9.32 billion CNY [1]. - Over the past five trading days, the stock has increased by 2.71%, while it has risen by 47.58% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 254.20 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.33%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 37.86 billion CNY, up 55.45% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 59.28 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 27.77 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Zijin Mining had 529,800 shareholders, an increase of 57.83% from the previous period [2]. - The largest shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 1.35 billion shares, which decreased by 235 million shares compared to the previous period [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, particularly highlighting the resilience of the lithium sector and the stability of gold prices due to central bank purchases [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the central bank's gold purchases are expected to support a stable gold price outlook, while the lithium sector shows unexpected strength, suggesting potential investment opportunities in these areas [3][4]. - The overall performance of the metals sector has been mixed, with significant year-to-date gains in various sub-sectors, particularly in energy metals and copper [10][5]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.08%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.19%. The non-ferrous metals index slightly declined by 0.04%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.86 percentage points [5][4]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has increased by 75.83%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 56.92 percentage points [5][9]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals saw varied price movements, with copper, aluminum, and lithium prices experiencing fluctuations. For instance, lithium carbonate prices decreased by 2.73% week-on-week [4][10]. - The report notes that the price of copper has decreased by 1.57% to $10,717 per ton, while aluminum prices have shown a slight increase of 1.22% [15][44]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a detailed valuation of key companies in the metals sector, highlighting their stock prices, earnings per share (EPS), and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios. For example, Zijin Mining has a stock price of 30.17 yuan with a PE ratio of 38 [20]. - Other notable companies include Shandong Gold with a stock price of 35.21 yuan and a PE ratio of 70, and Huayou Cobalt with a stock price of 64.34 yuan and a PE ratio of 36 [20]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report highlights that the supply of copper is tightening due to increased demand from the manufacturing sector, with the operating rates for copper products showing positive trends [29][4]. - In the aluminum sector, the report notes a decrease in the operating rates of downstream processing enterprises, indicating potential supply constraints in the future [44][45].

Group 1 - Spot gold has reached $4,100 per ounce for the first time since October 27, with a daily increase of approximately 2.5% [1] - J.P. Morgan Private Bank predicts that gold prices may exceed $5,000 per ounce next year, driven primarily by central bank purchases from emerging market economies [1] - By the end of 2026, gold prices could reach $5,200 to $5,300 per ounce, representing an increase of over 25% from current trading levels [1] Group 2 - As of November 10, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index has risen by 2.77%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as ChaoHua Jewelry (up 7.62%) and Huayu Mining (up 7.16%) [3] - The gold stock ETF fund has achieved a four-day consecutive increase, with a latest price of 1.59 yuan and a one-week cumulative increase of 2.45% [3] - The trading volume for the gold stock ETF fund was active, with a turnover of 11.11% and a transaction value of 12.0096 million yuan on November 10 [3] Group 3 - The gold stock ETF fund has seen a net asset value increase of 42.46% over the past six months, ranking 646 out of 3866 index stock funds, placing it in the top 16.71% [4] - Since its inception, the gold stock ETF fund has recorded a maximum monthly return of 20.05% and an average monthly return of 9.45% [4] - The historical one-year profit probability for the gold stock ETF fund stands at 100% [4] Group 4 - As of November 7, 2025, the gold stock ETF fund has a Sharpe ratio of 1.74, ranking in the top 2 out of 6 comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [5] - The management fee for the gold stock ETF fund is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [5] - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index includes 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of the gold industry in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent stock transfer of Zijin Mining from HSBC to Citibank indicates a significant market movement, with a total value of HKD 41.30 billion, representing 2.11% of the company's shares [1] Group 1: Stock Transfer - On November 10, Zijin Mining's shares were transferred from HSBC to Citibank, with a market value of HKD 41.30 billion [1] - The transfer represents 2.11% of Zijin Mining's total shares [1] Group 2: Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley has resumed coverage on Zijin Mining, assigning an "Overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 46.1 [1] - The firm highlights Zijin Mining's unique position due to growth in copper and gold production, effective cost control, and attractive valuation [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley anticipates a widening copper supply-demand gap by 2026 due to three major copper mine incidents this year, leading to production halts [1] - The firm sees significant upside potential for copper prices and is optimistic about gold prices, projecting them to reach USD 4,500 per ounce by mid-next year [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent stock transfer of Zijin Mining (02899) from HSBC to Citibank, with a market value of HKD 41.30 billion, representing 2.11% of the total shares [1] - Morgan Stanley has resumed coverage on Zijin Mining, assigning an "Overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 46.1, citing the company's unique position in increasing copper and gold production, effective cost control, and attractive valuation [1] - The report indicates that due to three significant copper mine incidents globally this year, there will be an expanded supply-demand gap for copper by 2026, suggesting substantial upward potential for copper prices [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley also expresses optimism about gold price trends, projecting that gold prices could reach USD 4,500 per ounce by mid-next year [1]