1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term outlooks for multiple commodities including methanol, silver, etc., and offers corresponding investment suggestions such as short - term trading strategies and waiting for market stabilization [1][3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Market data: The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2263 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol is 89.92%, down 1.18% week - on - week; the total downstream capacity utilization rate is 71.26%, down 1.3% weekly; the methanol port sample inventory is 145.75 tons, up 2.22 tons weekly [1]. - Outlook: With high domestic methanol production and falling downstream demand, the port inventory has slightly increased. The inland market is weak, and the port basis has weakened. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. Silver - Market factors: A storm in the US has affected market risk preferences, and gold has risen due to safe - haven demand [1]. - Outlook: Silver is still bullish in the long term, but the short - term upward momentum may be limited. Attention should be paid to the interaction between gold and silver [1]. Pig - Market data: As of January 23, the average weight of slaughtered pigs is 123 kg, up 0.01 kg; the weekly slaughter rate is 34.13%, up 0.66%; the profit from purchasing piglets for breeding is 37.85 yuan/head, up 79.68 yuan/head; the self - breeding profit is 115.96 yuan/head, up 52.46 yuan/head; the piglet price is 343.33 yuan/head, up 34.28 yuan/head [3]. - Outlook: The pig price rose first and then fell over the weekend. The supply of standard - weight pigs is relatively abundant, and the slaughter enterprises are cautious in procurement. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait for stabilization [3]. Palm Oil - Market factors: Italy has passed a new biofuel regulation, and the SGS data shows a 2.70% decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 [3]. - Outlook: Although the current demand is weak, the strong foundation for palm oil futures prices remains. It is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, and short - term long positions are recommended [3]. Soybean Meal - Market data: On January 23, the domestic soybean meal spot prices in Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong were 3180 yuan/ton (stable), 3080 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), 3070 yuan/ton (stable), and 3060 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton) respectively [4]. - Outlook: The spot price has a slight upward trend due to pre - holiday stocking, but the high oil mill operating rate and future Brazilian soybean supply pressure limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see as it lacks direction in the short term [4]. Coking Coal - Market data: The capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises is 72.55%, down 0.14%; the daily coke output is 63.45 tons, down 0.12 tons; the coke inventory is 81.81 tons, down 4.26 tons; the coking coal inventory is 1132.85 tons, up 61.17 tons; the available days of coking coal are 13.4 days, up 0.75 days [4]. - Outlook: The downstream winter storage is ongoing, and the coal mine output is expected to decline. The fundamental situation will improve marginally, but the upward momentum of the futures market is limited. It is expected to fluctuate [4]. Iron Ore - Market data: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 16766.53 tons, up 211.43 tons; the daily port clearance volume is 310.73 tons, down 9.16 tons; the number of ships at ports is 118, up 1 [5]. - Outlook: Although the inventory pressure is increasing, considering supply and demand factors, the further inventory accumulation pressure is limited. The price is supported in the short term and is expected to fluctuate [5]. Rebar - Market data: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.68%, down 0.16 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 85.51%, up 0.03 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate is 40.69%, up 0.86 percentage points; the daily hot metal output is 228.1 tons, up 0.09 tons [5]. - Outlook: The building material demand is seasonally weakening, and the inventory accumulation speed is expected to accelerate as steel mills resume production. However, the cost side provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. Soda Ash - Market data: The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1234 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly output is 77.17 tons, down 0.46%; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 152.12 tons, down 3.42%; the float glass operating rate is 71.62%, up 0.14 percentage points [6]. - Outlook: The float glass market is stable, and the domestic soda ash market is weakly stable. With high supply and mediocre demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. PVC - Market data: The price of East China SG - 5 PVC is 4650 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 78.74%, down 0.89%; the social inventory is 117.75 tons, up 2.92%; the average profit of calcium carbide - based PVC producers is - 733 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based producers is - 164 yuan/ton [7]. - Outlook: With high supply, low domestic demand, and rapid inventory accumulation, the price is under pressure. However, strong exports support the price. It is expected to fluctuate under pressure in the short term [7]. Crude Oil - Market data: As of January 23, the number of US online drilling oil wells is 411, up 1 from the previous week and down 61 from the same period last year [8]. - Outlook: The US has increased pressure on Iran, and geopolitical risks have pushed up international oil prices. Short - term long positions are recommended, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the US winter storm [8]. Synthetic Rubber - Market data: The estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene enterprises is 11.06 tons, up 0.01 tons; the butadiene inventory has significantly decreased, down 14.84%; the profit of butadiene extraction process is 2693 yuan/ton, up 317 yuan/ton [9]. - Outlook: The increase is mainly driven by butadiene. With sufficient supply of synthetic rubber and high downstream shipment pressure, it is recommended to be cautious when going long and use short - term long positions at low levels [9]. Asphalt - Market data: As of January 21, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise operating rate is 26.8%, down 0.4 percentage points; as of January 23, the weekly output is 47.6 tons, down 1.2 tons; the factory inventory is 60.9 tons, down 1.3 tons; the social inventory is 86.2 tons, up 4.7 tons [10]. - Outlook: The supply - demand situation has not significantly improved, but supply disruptions and cost support are expected to boost the asphalt futures market, which is expected to remain strong [10]. Copper - Market data: Zijin Mining's Julong Copper Mine Phase II project has been put into operation, with the annual copper production expected to increase from 190,000 tons to 300,000 - 350,000 tons [11]. - Outlook: The long - term supply shortage situation remains, but the market is digesting the high - level pressure after the previous price increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [11]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Market data: Most short - term Shibor varieties have declined. The overnight rate is down 1.7 BP to 1.396%, the 7 - day rate is down 0.6 BP to 1.491%, the 14 - day rate is down 1.3 BP to 1.577%, and the 1 - month rate is up 0.07 BP to 1.5577% [11]. - Outlook: The loosening of the capital market is beneficial to the bond market. The bond market is expected to strengthen with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [11]. Gold - Market factors: The US has increased military deployment and imposed sanctions on Iran, increasing the possibility of war [12]. - Outlook: Safe - haven sentiment supports the gold price. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish and pay attention to geopolitical disturbances [12]. Aluminum - Market data: In November 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 6.0226 million tons, and the consumption was 5.8176 million tons, with a surplus of 204,900 tons. From January to November, the production was 66.7204 million tons, and the consumption was 68.248 million tons, with a shortage of 1.5276 million tons [12]. - Outlook: The shortage situation at the end of 2025 has gradually changed to a surplus. In the current off - season, the surplus trend continues. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [12].

Summary of the Conference Call for Zijin Mining Industry Overview - Geopolitical easing has not reduced global asset reallocation, with expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve chairman candidate, which is favorable for non-ferrous metals. Demand for non-ferrous metals is expected to resonate upwards over the next five years [2][4] - Recent funding trends show a return to net inflows, with gold and copper experiencing net outflows while other sectors saw net inflows. A consolidation phase is anticipated due to seasonal factors and high prices, with a potential upward trend post-Chinese New Year [2][5][6] Key Points on Metals Gold - As of the end of 2025, investment-grade gold will account for only 3% of global disposable financial assets, significantly below the historical peak of 5%. This indicates substantial room for gold allocation, which could drive prices higher [2][7] Copper - Electrolytic copper demand is weak, with inventory accumulation noted. However, its financial attributes support copper prices, and downstream replenishment demand is emerging, suggesting limited downside risk for copper prices [2][8] Aluminum - Aluminum prices are low, with stable demand benefiting from export tax rebates and significant growth in photovoltaic demand. The supply-demand balance is relatively strong compared to copper [2][9][10] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing robust demand despite the seasonal downturn, with battery companies actively seeking exports. Supply remains stable, and prices are expected to maintain high levels [2][11] Rare Earths - Rare earth prices have risen from 520,000-530,000 to around 670,000, an increase of approximately 20%. Supply is constrained due to national quota controls, while downstream demand continues to grow, indicating a long-term supply-demand imbalance [2][12] Company-Specific Insights on Zijin Mining - Zijin Mining's profit forecast has been significantly revised upwards, with expected net profit of approximately 80.8 billion by 2026. The company is well-positioned for future growth due to a complete management system and ongoing mine upgrades [2][15] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth and profitability, with copper production projected to reach 1.2 million tons and gold production at 105 tons [2][16] - The valuation of Zijin Mining is expected to benefit from its strong growth potential and liquidity, with a target market value revised to 1.6 trillion, reflecting a 20% valuation premium [2][17] - Zijin Mining has completed five resource acquisition projects in the past two years, enhancing its resource reserves and production capacity. Continued acquisitions in 2026 could further strengthen its market competitiveness [2][18] Conclusion - The overall outlook for non-ferrous metals, particularly for Zijin Mining, is positive, with strong demand projections and strategic growth through acquisitions. The company is expected to capitalize on favorable market conditions and maintain a leading position in the industry [2][15][18]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 受益于金价上涨，多家黄金相关企业预计2025年业绩同比增长。 1月25日晚，湖南黄金发布业绩预告，预计2025年净利润为12.7亿元—16.08亿元，同比增长50%— 90%。 对于业绩增长，湖南黄金表示，报告期内，业绩上涨主要是公司金、锑、钨产品销售价格同比上涨。 无独有偶，招金黄金1月25日晚也发布2025年度业绩预告，预计净利润为1.22亿元—1.82亿元，上年同期 亏损12742.80万元。 招金黄金表示，业绩变动原因为主营业务扭亏，子公司斐济瓦图科拉金矿技改增产增效，叠加黄金价格 上涨，毛利润大幅提高。 此前，赤峰黄金曾于1月5日发布2025年年度业绩预增公告，预计2025年度净利润为30亿元到32亿元，与 上年同期（法定披露数据）相比增长约70%到81%。主要原因为公司2025年度主营黄金产量约为14.4 吨，主营黄金产品销售价格同比上升约49%，境内外矿山企业盈利能力增强。 紫金矿业2025年年度业绩也预喜。据紫金矿业公告，预计公司2025年净利润约510亿—520亿元，与上年 同期320.51亿元相比，将增加约189亿—199亿 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant gains, with major stocks like Zhongjin Gold rising over 9%, and other companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum and Shandong Gold increasing by more than 7% [1] - Non-ferrous and mining-related ETFs have also seen an approximate increase of 5% due to market influences [1] Group 2 - Recent reports indicate that not only precious metals like gold and silver have risen significantly, but also industrial metals such as copper and aluminum, as well as energy metals like cobalt and lithium, have shown good growth, with multiple metals reaching historical or near-historical highs [2] - The super cycle in non-ferrous metals is attributed to three main factors: the weakening trend of the dollar due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, supply-demand gaps caused by declining ore grades and rising marginal costs in major mines, and domestic policies aimed at optimizing excess capacity [2]

Core Viewpoint - The colored metal ETF (512400) is experiencing significant growth, driven by rising prices in precious and industrial metals, with expectations for continued upward momentum in the sector due to various macroeconomic factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 26, 2026, the colored metal ETF (512400) increased by 4.62%, with a trading volume of 1.108 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 2.8% [1]. - The index tracking the colored metal sector, the Zhongzheng Shenwan Colored Metal Index, saw notable gains in individual stocks, including silver rising by 10.03%, Hunan Gold by 10.01%, and Xingye Silver Tin by 9.99% [1]. - The colored metal sector has attracted significant investment, with over 36 billion yuan net inflow into colored metal-themed ETFs (excluding gold) this year, bringing the total scale to over 100 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Price Trends and Predictions - On January 26, spot gold prices surpassed $5,080 per ounce, marking a new high with an intraday increase of over 2%, while spot silver rose over 3% to reach $106.83 per ounce [2]. - Historical patterns suggest that gold prices may increase between 10% and 35% in 2026, influenced by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, instability in the US dollar, midterm elections, and geopolitical uncertainties [2]. - The recent surge in metals such as gold, silver, tin, and lithium indicates a potential bull market for colored metals, with ongoing valuation adjustments lagging behind commodity price increases [2]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment and Strategies - Fund companies and investors are increasingly focusing on the colored metal sector, with public funds significantly increasing their positions in this industry by the fourth quarter of 2025 [2]. - Current market narratives driving global asset performance include the weakening of the US dollar credit cycle, the formation of a new monetary system anchored by gold pricing, and the reconfiguration of global supply chains [3]. - The colored metal ETF (512400) closely tracks the Zhongzheng Shenwan Colored Metal Index, which comprises 50 listed companies in the colored metal and non-metal materials sectors, reflecting the overall performance of this industry [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant rise in the gold industry, with the China Securities Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index increasing by 5.80% and individual stocks like Laopu Gold and Hunan Gold seeing gains of 12.44% and 10.01% respectively [1] - The gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange surpassed $5000 per ounce, marking a historic milestone [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that central banks will purchase 60 tons of gold monthly this year, and with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the scale of gold purchases by ETFs is expected to increase, leading to a revised year-end gold price forecast of $5400 per ounce [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index account for 63.58% of the index, with major companies including Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [2] - The individual performance of key stocks includes Zijin Mining at 4.77% increase and Shandong Gold at 5.76% increase, with their respective weights in the index being 11.20% and 9.05% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious metals prices, particularly silver and gold, is driven by geopolitical factors and increasing industrial demand, leading to significant market movements and investment opportunities in related stocks [6][14]. Precious Metals Price Movement - On January 26, silver opened with a significant increase, surpassing $108, with a daily rise of over 4% [9][10]. - Gold prices also saw a notable rise, initially breaking the $5000 mark and continuing to increase, reaching over $5070 [3][11]. Stock Market Reaction - The rise in precious metal prices led to a collective increase in A-share gold stocks, with Hunan Gold hitting the daily limit, and other companies like Xiaocheng Technology, Sichuan Gold, and Hengbang Shares also experiencing gains [4][12]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Silver's price increase is attributed to its dual role as both a financial and industrial metal, with growing demand in sectors like photovoltaics and new energy contributing to a five-year supply shortage [5][12]. - Factors such as tightening export controls and historically low inventory levels have exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance, resulting in silver's price elasticity being significantly higher than that of gold [5][12]. Analyst Insights - Analysts from Haitong Futures and Jinrui Futures attribute the recent price increases in gold and silver to geopolitical tensions and market reactions to U.S. fiscal policies, which have affected investor confidence in U.S. assets [6][14].

记者丨黎雨桐 翁榕涛 编辑丨金珊 1月26日上午，现货白银开盘大涨，截至9：48，突破108美元关口，日内涨超4%。 | W | 伦敦银现 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | 108.014 ª² | | | 103.341 | 总量 | | 0 | | +4.673 | +4.52% 开盘 | | 104.402 | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 108.583 持 仓 | | 0 | 外 盘 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 103.191 | 壇 仓 | 0 | 内 盘 | | | | 关时 | 五日 | 日K | 周Ｋ | 月K | 更多 | | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | 108.583 | | | | 5.07%. 卖一 108.069 | | | | | | | | 示一 | 108.014 | | | | | | | 9:48 | 107.928 | 0 | | | | | | 9:48 | 107.948 | 0 ...

智通财经APP获悉，紫金矿业(02899)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.34%，报42.62港元，成交额10.21亿港 元。 消息面上，据紫金矿业官微消息，1月23日，紫金矿业旗下巨龙铜矿二期改扩建工程正式建成投 产，达产后将在现有15万吨/日采选工程基础上，新增生产规模20万吨/日，形成35万吨/日的总生产规 模，成为中国最大、全球海拔最高、入选品位最低的世界级超大型铜矿。 目前，公司正在进一步规划实施巨龙铜矿三期工程。若获批，三期工程开采海拔将进一步下降，境界内 可供开发的铜储量将超过2000万吨，每年采选矿石量将达约2亿吨规模，届时巨龙铜矿将成为全球采选 规模最大的铜矿山，达产后年产铜约60万吨。 巨龙铜矿2025年产铜超19万吨，二期达产后年矿石采选规模将从4500万吨提升至1.05亿吨以上，年矿产 铜将提高至约30-35万吨，2026年预计矿产铜产量将达30万吨，矿产钼年产量将从2025年的0.8万吨提高 至约1.3万吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has experienced a significant surge, with the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) rising over 4% and attracting substantial capital inflow, indicating strong investor interest in this sector [1][3]. Market Performance - On January 26, the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a capital inflow exceeding 70 million CNY within the first 10 minutes of trading, following a total inflow of over 160 million CNY in the previous two days [1]. - Precious metals also saw a collective surge, with spot gold prices surpassing 5000 USD/ounce for the first time, and silver and platinum prices increasing by over 3% and reaching 2800 USD/ounce, respectively [1][3]. Supply Chain Dynamics - A strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper mine in Chile, involving 645 workers, has contributed to supply concerns, as negotiations have stalled [1]. - The global mining capital expenditure has been historically low, with a 3.3% decline in exploration investments for solid minerals in 2024, indicating potential supply constraints in the future [9]. Economic and Macro Factors - Analysts suggest that central banks' strategic asset allocation is a core support for the current rise in gold prices, with expectations of monthly purchases of 60 tons of gold by central banks [3]. - The weak dollar environment, driven by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, is expected to boost the prices of dollar-denominated commodities, including non-ferrous metals [7]. Investment Opportunities - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted for its high copper (34%) and gold (12%) content, making it a leading option for investors looking to capitalize on the non-ferrous metal supercycle [13]. - The ETF's index has shown a cumulative return of 99.61% since 2020, driven by earnings rather than valuation increases, indicating a strong performance outlook [16].