Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate, and it is not advisable to chase high after the rebound. Partial profit - taking of long positions can be considered [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. Trading volume of TF, T, and TL contracts decreased significantly. Cash bond trading was light, and yields declined across the board. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.33. Open - market reverse repurchase was 61.2 billion,买断式逆回购 was 110 billion, and the net withdrawal was 35.13 billion [1]. 3.2. Intraday News - The minutes of the Fed's September monetary policy meeting showed differences within the Fed regarding the subsequent rate - cut amplitude. The Ministry of Commerce announced the decision to implement export controls on relevant overseas rare - earth items [2]. 3.3. Market Analysis and Judgment - Treasury bond futures continued the pre - holiday rebound trend today, unaffected by the sharp rise in the stock market. Due to some investment managers and traders still on vacation, market trading was relatively light. The National Development and Reform Commission announced at a press conference before the holiday that it would work with relevant parties to promote new policy - based financial instruments with a scale of 500 billion yuan to supplement project capital. In the future, attention should be paid to the central bank's specific arrangements for this policy. In the short term, the central bank may still prefer to use structural tools to support the real economy and postpone the timing of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts [3]. 3.4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 09 Price | 2025 - 09 - 30 Price | Today's Change | 2025 - 10 - 09 Position (Lots) | 2025 - 09 - 30 Position (Lots) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.41 | 102.374 | 0.036 | 75,441 | 74,895 | 546 | | TF2512 | 105.75 | 105.655 | 0.095 | 149,401 | 150,436 | - 1035 | | T2512 | 108.05 | 107.885 | 0.165 | 252,116 | 249,185 | 2931 | | TL2512 | 114.53 | 114 | 0.53 | 174,133 | 170,726 | 3407 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0372 | - 0.0131 | - 0.0241 | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 29,898 | 29,604 | 294 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.034 | - 0.0013 | - 0.0327 | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 51,620 | 62,260 | - 10640 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0524 | 0.2077 | - 0.1553 | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 73,515 | 91,682 | - 18167 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.319 | 0.3574 | - 0.0384 | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 97,276 | 135,369 | - 38093 | [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is on the export demand of US soybeans under the background of China - US negotiations. The market will remain in a narrow bottom - range oscillation until actual Chinese purchase orders emerge. The short - term impact of the quarterly inventory report during the holiday is neutral, and attention should be paid to whether the October USDA report will adjust the previous yield. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is recovering, and there are no major yield issues for the new crop. The upside of the domestic soybean complex is constrained by high near - term inventory, and the domestic market is expected to be under pressure, but there are opportunities for long - position valuation repair supported by costs. The domestic rapeseed complex is mainly affected by China - Canada negotiation results and is influenced by supply recovery expectations and soybean meal in the short term [4]. - There is still a bullish sentiment for far - month contracts due to supply - demand gaps, and the Brazilian export premium supports far - month contract prices from the cost side. However, the near - term supply is high, with high port and oil - mill inventories of imported soybeans in China, increasing oil - mill crushing volumes, and a seasonal inventory build - up trend for soybean meal. Rapeseed meal follows soybean meal but is slightly stronger. After the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts, the pressure on soybean and rapeseed meal warehouse receipts has increased again, making the near - term supply pressure the dominant factor in the market [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.4%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2350 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 38.6% [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - For feed mills with low inventory and wanting to purchase based on orders, they can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Percentage Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 2939 | 11 | 0.38% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2755 | 17 | 0.62% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2863 | 16 | 0.56% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2435 | 14 | 0.58% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2334 | 17 | 0.73% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2415 | 12 | 0.5% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1029.75 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1527 | 0.0096 | 0.13% | [6][8] 3.4 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Price Spreads - The M01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 184 with a daily change of - 6, and the RM01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 101 with a daily change of - 3. - The M05 - 09 spread of soybean meal is - 108 with a daily change of 1, and the RM05 - 09 spread of rapeseed meal is - 81 with a daily change of 5. - The M09 - 01 spread of soybean meal is - 76 with a daily change of 5, and the RM09 - 01 spread of rapeseed meal is - 20 with a daily change of - 2. - The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2950 with a daily change of 10, and the basis is 11 with a daily change of - 1. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2540 with no daily change, and the basis is 105 with no daily change. - The spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 410 with a daily change of 10, and the futures price spread is 504 with a daily change of - 3 [9]. 3.5 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4471.4503 | - 32.1737 | 0.031 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3975.71 | 67.65 | 65.91 | | Cost Difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) | - 727.0651 | - 12.6593 | - 12.0831 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 622.9153 | - 32.1737 | - 44.9143 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 30.936 | - 5.1388 | - 0.2864 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 1027 | 29 | 188 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 1247 | 49 | 211 | [10]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: October 9, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility Forecast Nickel - Price Range Forecast: 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton - Current Volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.17% - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 3.2% [2] Stainless Steel - Price Range Forecast: 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton - Current Volatility (20 - day rolling): 6.62% - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 0.1% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Nickel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Sell NI main - contract futures according to inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, sell - side ratio 60%, strategy grade 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options), sell - side ratio 50%, strategy grade 2 [2] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy far - month NI contracts according to production plan to lock in production costs, buy - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 3 - Strategy 2: Sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), sell - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 1 - Strategy 3: Buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), buy - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 3 [2] Stainless Steel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Sell SS main - contract futures according to inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, sell - side ratio 60%, strategy grade 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options), sell - side ratio 50%, strategy grade 2 [3] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy far - month SS contracts according to production plan to lock in production costs, buy - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 3 - Strategy 2: Sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), sell - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 1 - Strategy 3: Buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), buy - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 3 [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Nickel and stainless steel prices rose strongly during the day, and the overall non - ferrous metals market was strong. - In the nickel ore market, Indonesia shortened the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year, and the 2026 quota is expected to decline. - In the new energy market, the downstream procurement willingness recovered after the holiday, with tight market circulation, low inventory, and continued strong subsequent quotes. - The upward momentum of nickel - iron prices has dissipated, but the downward space is limited due to cost pressure. - In the stainless steel market, spot transactions improved after the holiday, and export prospects are positive, which may relieve the pressure of weak demand recovery. [3] Group 5: Market Sentiment Analysis Bullish Factors - Indonesia shortened the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year. - The Indonesian Forestry Working Group took over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay. - CATL and Antam promoted the continuous construction of the nickel integrated smelter. - The WTO ruled that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel was illegal. - The exemption of India's BIS certification was extended to the end of the year. [5] Bearish Factors - High pure nickel inventory. - Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist. - As of now, the demand recovery during the "Golden September and Silver October" period has fallen short of expectations. [5] Group 6: Market Data Nickel | Indicator | Latest Value | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel Main - continuous | 124,480 | 3,580 | 3% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 1 | 124,480 | 3,580 | 2.96% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 2 | 124,660 | 3,600 | 2.97% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 3 | 124,850 | 3,580 | 2.97% | yuan/ton | | LME Nickel 3M | 15,382 | - 103 | - 2.95% | US dollars/ton | | Trading Volume | 130,864 | 3,674 | 2.89% | lots | | Open Interest | 86,038 | 9,898 | 13.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 24,775 | - 42 | - 0.17% | tons | | Basis of Main Contract | - 610 | 135 | - 18.1% | yuan/ton | [5] Stainless Steel | Indicator | Latest Value | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless Steel Main - continuous | 1,286 | 130 | 1% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 1 | 1,286 | 130 | 1.02% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 2 | 1,288 | 130 | 1.02% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 3 | 1,295 | 120 | 0.94% | yuan/ton | | Trading Volume | 88,195 | - 39,957 | - 31.18% | lots | | Open Interest | 60,514 | - 7,320 | - 10.79% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 86,551 | - 418 | - 0.48% | tons | | Basis of Main Contract | 840 | 30 | 3.70% | yuan/ton | [6] Group 7: Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Latest Value (tons) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel | 40,828 | - 656 | | LME Nickel Inventory | 236,892 | 4,260 | | Stainless Steel Social Inventory | 909 | 11.8 | | Nickel Pig Iron Inventory | 28,652 | - 614.5 | [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar supply surplus persists, and with the expected increase in production in India and Thailand in October, sugar prices are under pressure. However, multiple typhoons in late September and early October have affected sugarcane in Guangxi, and the losses are yet to be estimated [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the sugar market. Positive factors include sufficient sugar inventory in India for domestic consumption, China's suspension of imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder, Brazil's increase in ethanol and biodiesel blending ratios, and typhoon - related damage to sugarcane. Negative factors include changes in production, supply, and sales data in various regions [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of sugar is predicted to be between 5200 - 5700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.50% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.2% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2511) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5600 - 5650, and sell call options (SR601C5700) with a 50% ratio at an entry range of 60 - 80 to lock in profits and reduce costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2511) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5450 - 5500, and sell put options (SR601P5400) with a 50% ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to lock in procurement costs [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The global sugar supply surplus situation continues. The expected increase in production in India and Thailand suppresses sugar prices. In China, the expected increase in production due to expanded planting areas may be affected by typhoons in Guangxi [4]. 3.3 Positive and Negative Factors - **Positive Factors**: - India's 2024/25 sugar ending inventory is estimated to be 480 - 500 million tons, sufficient for domestic consumption from October to November 2025 [5]. - China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder [5]. - Brazil has increased the mandatory blending ratio of ethanol in gasoline from 27% to 30% and biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15% [5]. - Typhoons have damaged sugarcane in Guangdong and Guangxi [5]. - **Negative Factors**: - In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, Guangxi's sugar production increased while the amount of crushed sugarcane decreased [6]. - The global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 740 million tons, the highest since 2017/18 [6]. - In August 2025, China's sugar imports increased year - on - year, and the situation in different periods varies [8]. - In the first half of September, Brazil's sugar production in the central - southern region increased significantly [9]. - As of the end of August, the sugar sales and inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan showed different trends [9]. 3.4 Price Data - **Basis**: On October 9, 2025, the basis between different regions (Nanning, Kunming) and sugar futures contracts (SR01 - SR11) showed different daily and weekly changes [10]. - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On October 9, 2025, the closing prices, daily and weekly changes of sugar futures contracts (SR01 - SR11), and the spreads between different contracts showed various trends [11]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: On October 9, 2025, the spot prices of sugar in different regions (Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, Rizhao) and the regional spreads showed different daily and weekly changes [12]. - **Sugar Import Prices**: On October 9, 2025, the quota - within and quota - outside import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar and their spreads with domestic prices showed different daily and weekly changes [13][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The stock market rose with increased trading volume today. Among the scale - based indices, the CSI 500 index showed the strongest performance. In the industry, affected by the gold price increase due to the US government shutdown during the holiday and the export control of rare earths, the non - ferrous metals sector led the gain. The technology concept was boosted by chip - related information, with the STAR 50 index rising over 5% during the session and closing up 2.93%. Overseas stock indices performed strongly during the holiday, providing a positive sentiment basis. The stock index gap - opened higher in the morning, and the upward movement during the session was mainly driven by structural positive factors. The upward trend converged after the lunch break. The short - term structural pull is expected to continue. After the stock index continuously broke new highs, the overall sentiment is positive, and the trend is expected to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is advisable to continue holding positions and wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The stock index continued to rise today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 1.48%. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 471.868 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties rose with increased volume [2]. Important Information - The Shanghai Composite Index stood above 3900 points in the morning, hitting a 10 - year high, and the gold and controllable nuclear fusion concepts exploded. - The Ministry of Commerce announced the decision to implement export control on overseas rare earth items and related technologies. - The US approved NVIDIA to sell chips worth billions of dollars to the UAE [6]. Strategy Recommendation Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday % change | 1.47 | 1.25 | 1.74 | 0.56 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 13.5848 | 5.9716 | 15.5474 | 21.3729 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | 2.5179 | 1.214 | 2.6918 | - 0.3141 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.7075 | 10.3573 | 26.8356 | 35.3076 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 1.4919 | 0.4378 | 2.1599 | 0.1437 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite % change | 1.32 | | Shenzhen Component % change | 1.47 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.47 | | Total trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 2653.197 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | 471.786 | [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic economic repair depends on the demand side, with potential incremental policies. Overseas, the US government shutdown increases market uncertainty, and the Fed's decision - making may be affected. The Japanese political situation also impacts the market [2]. - The RMB exchange rate needs continuous improvement in internal and external environments and policy signals for trend - like appreciation. Short - term strategies are provided for export and import enterprises [4]. - A - shares are expected to be easy to rise and hard to fall after the holiday, with a likely structural market. Attention should be paid to multiple events in the future [7]. - Treasury bonds are expected to continue the oscillatory trend, and it is advisable to enter long positions at low prices without chasing high [8]. - The shipping market is affected by the US policy on Chinese ships and the Gaza cease - fire negotiation. The 10 - contract may decline, and other contracts are likely to oscillate [12]. - Precious metals are expected to remain strong, but there may be price adjustments. Any adjustment is a mid - to - long - term buying opportunity [13][14][15]. - Copper prices are driven up by supply disruptions and Fed's rate - cut expectations. However, high - price industrial acceptance is a risk [16][17]. - Nickel prices are expected to rise slightly after the holiday, showing an oscillatory and strong pattern, and attention should be paid to multiple factors [18]. - For lithium carbonate, focus on downstream restocking. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the price of industrial silicon may rise slightly, and polysilicon has high volatility and risks [20][21]. - Steel products face de - stocking pressure, and the market is expected to be under pressure. Iron ore prices are likely to rise in the short - term due to supply disturbances. Coal and coke prices' rebound depends on the steel market. Ferroalloys have prominent supply - demand contradictions [24][27][28]. - LPG is expected to run weakly. PX - TA and MEG - bottle chips are expected to oscillate weakly. Methanol supply pressure increases. PVC is in a weak - reality and strong - policy - disturbance pattern. Pure benzene and styrene follow the cost decline. Fuel oil is expected to open flat, and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to open slightly lower. Asphalt may open slightly lower, with a possible last - chance rise this year [30][33][34][37][39][40][41][42][44]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to oscillate weakly. Propylene prices rise slightly [45][47][48][49]. - The pig market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and it is advisable to short at high prices. Oilseeds are affected by Sino - US negotiations. Oils may rebound after the holiday. Soybean prices are expected to decline. Cotton prices are under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds. Sugar prices may open high and go high in the short - term. Egg prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to be cautious. Apple prices may rise due to bad weather. Red dates may face downward pressure [52][54][56][59][61][63][65][66][68]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Key information includes the Fed's meeting minutes, the US government shutdown, the US budget deficit, and international political situations. Domestic economic repair focuses on the demand side, and overseas uncertainties increase [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange rate data is provided. The RMB exchange rate is affected by the Fed's decision, the US government shutdown, and the Japanese political situation. Short - term strategies for enterprises are given [3][4]. Stock Index - Before the holiday, A - shares were strong, and overseas stock indexes were also strong during the holiday. A - shares are expected to be easy to rise and hard to fall, with attention on multiple events [6][7]. Treasury Bonds - The Fed's internal differences and the US government shutdown are important information. The bond market rebounded before the holiday, and it is expected to oscillate after the holiday [8]. Container Shipping - Spot market prices are relatively stable. Global trade volume and the Gaza cease - fire negotiation are key factors. Short - term strategies for different contracts are provided [9][10][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Prices rose strongly during the holiday, driven by investment demand, inflation concerns, and the US government shutdown. Attention should be paid to data release and the Fed's meeting [13][14]. - **Copper**: Prices rose during the holiday due to supply disruptions and Fed's rate - cut expectations. There are concerns about industrial acceptance at high prices [16][17]. - **Nickel**: Prices were strong during the holiday, affected by Indonesian policies. It is expected to rise slightly after the holiday with limited upward momentum [18]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: There were no significant changes during the holiday. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production and downstream restocking [20]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: There were no significant changes during the holiday. Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly, and polysilicon has high volatility and risks [21]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Inventory increased significantly during the holiday. The market faces de - stocking pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances increase. The price is expected to rise in the short - term due to demand recovery and supply issues [25][26][27]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Supply elasticity is limited, and the price is supported by winter storage. The rebound depends on the steel market. Strategies for different contracts are provided [28][29]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: There is a prominent supply - demand contradiction, with high supply and weak demand [29]. Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: Overseas prices were weak during the holiday. Supply pressure remains in the fourth quarter, and the demand requirement is higher [30]. - **PTA - PX**: It oscillates weakly with the cost side. The polyester season is not very strong, and PTA processing fees have limited expansion [33]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: There is a marginal improvement in supply and demand, but the long - term inventory increase expectation makes it difficult to break through upward [34][35][36]. - **Methanol**: Supply pressure increases, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [37]. - **PVC**: There were few changes during the holiday. The market is in a weak - reality and strong - policy - disturbance pattern [38][39]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices follow the cost decline. The supply of pure benzene is high, and the supply of styrene will increase later. Consider widening the price spread [40]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to open flat, with a strong self - performance. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to open slightly lower, following the cost [41][42]. - **Asphalt**: Supply increases, and demand is affected by weather and funds. There may be a last - chance rise this year [43][44]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: They are expected to oscillate weakly, with different influencing factors for each [45][47][48]. - **Propylene**: Prices rise slightly, with changes in supply and demand [49]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: Prices declined during the holiday, in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. Short at high prices [52][53]. - **Oilseeds**: Affected by Sino - US negotiations, with different trends in the internal and external markets. Strategies for contracts are provided [54][55]. - **Oils**: May rebound after the holiday, with different supply and demand situations for different oils [56][57][58]. - **Soybeans**: Prices are expected to decline, with attention on policy and market factors [59][60]. - **Cotton**: Prices are under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds, with a focus on multiple factors [61][62]. - **Sugar**: Prices may open high and go high in the short - term, affected by production and disasters [63][64]. - **Eggs**: Prices were weak during the holiday, and it is advisable to be cautious or short far - month contracts [65]. - **Apples**: Prices may rise due to bad weather, with different price levels for good and poor - quality products [66][67]. - **Red Dates**: May face downward pressure, with attention on weather and inventory [68].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward cycle of gold is not over, and any adjustment in gold prices should be seen as a buying opportunity on dips. The long - term trend of gold is anchored to its monetary attribute, and with the decline of the US dollar currency system, global central banks will increase their gold allocation and reduce their US dollar allocation. [2][120] - In the fourth quarter, central bank gold purchases will act as a support, and investment demand will be the driving force. Investment demand will shift from uncertain hedging transactions to interest - rate cut transactions on the monetary policy side. The target price of London gold in Q4 2025 will move up to the $4000/ounce area, with support at $3600/ounce, and the domestic price will be in the range of 820 - 900 yuan/gram. [2][121] - Silver trends generally follow gold, but there are differences in fundamentals and volatility. The expected operating range of London silver in the fourth quarter is $42 - 50/ounce, and the domestic price is 10000 - 12000 yuan/kilogram. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended. [3][121] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Precious Metals Market Review - In 2025, the domestic and foreign precious metals markets continued the bull market in 2024, with strong upward momentum and the relative strength of gold and silver switching. The foreign market outperformed the domestic market, mainly due to the appreciation of the RMB. [9] - In the third quarter, the precious metals market had both synchronization and differentiation. Gold started to break through upwards in late August, silver followed gold's upward movement in late August after a period of adjustment, and platinum's price moved up following gold and silver after a large - scale fluctuation in July. [9] - As of September 19, 2025, all precious metals showed significant price increases compared to the end of 2024, with COMEX silver having the highest increase of 48.05%, and the gold - to - silver ratio decreased by 3.75%. [19] 2. Cross - Market Price Difference Fluctuations Caused by Concerns over US Tariff Policies - From late last year to the first quarter of this year, concerns about the US imposing gold import tariffs led to large - scale arbitrage trading, pushing up the price difference between COMEX gold and London gold. Similar arbitrage transactions have occurred multiple times since November 2024. [23] - In the third quarter of this year, a similar story of cross - market price differences in precious metals repeated. In July, the premium of COMEX futures over London spot in the gold, silver, platinum, and palladium markets widened rapidly due to concerns that the US might extend copper import tariff measures to precious metals. [26] 3. Broad Monetary Expectations Boost Precious Metals Valuation and Investment Demand 3.1 Q3 Real Interest Rate Decline Boosts Gold Valuation - In August, the enhanced expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut pushed down the 10 - year US Treasury real interest rate, thereby boosting the valuation of gold. Although the non - farm payroll report in early August was far below expectations, the lack of a clear signal from the Fed and the time interval between FOMC meetings limited the increase in precious metals prices. [33] - During the period of increasing interest - rate cut expectations, the US dollar index remained resilient, with a limited depreciation range. Except for the Swedish krona, the other five major currencies depreciated against the US dollar in Q3 2025, with the Japanese yen having the largest depreciation. [35] 3.2 The Fed's Monetary Easing Expectation is the Main Cause of the Decline in Real Interest Rates - The mid - to long - term decline in the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds is mainly driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut and easing expectations. At the September FOMC meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Market expectations indicate that the Fed will cut interest rates 1.728 times by the end of this year and 4.317 times by the end of 2026. [41] - The dot - plot of the September FOMC meeting shows that most Fed officials expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year and once each in 2026 and 2027. Compared with June, the expected number of interest - rate cuts has increased due to the Fed's shift towards the employment side in balancing inflation and employment. [45] - The Fed's September economic forecast shows an upward revision of the GDP growth rate forecast for 2025 - 2027, a downward revision of the unemployment rate forecast for 2026 and 2027, and an upward revision of the PCE forecast, reflecting the Fed officials' increased concern about inflation and reduced concern about the economy. [49] 3.3 The Fed's Broad Monetary Policy Still Has Room for Strengthening - In the fourth quarter, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury real interest rate are expected to decline further, which will continue to boost the valuation of precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut and possible suspension of balance - sheet reduction are likely to be further strengthened due to increased economic downward pressure in the US and the expected increase in the number of Fed officials favorable to Trump. [51] - The US economy may face greater downward pressure in the fourth quarter and 2026, as evidenced by the cooling of the employment market and the negative impact of trade tariffs on the economy. The Fed's independence is being challenged through institutional and personnel interventions, and there is also the issue of fiscal coercion. [53][63] - Since 2025, global gold investment demand has increased significantly, but there was a net outflow in May. The uncertainty brought about by Trump's policies has increased the demand for gold investment and allocation, but the "90 - day suspension period" of the "reciprocal tariff" policy and the cooling of uncertainty have led to a partial withdrawal of investment demand. [73][75] 4. Central Bank Gold Purchases as a Support - Central bank gold purchases have shown a slowdown this year. From the perspective of the fourth quarter and 2026, central bank gold purchases will act as a support rather than the core driving force for price increases. Central banks are expected to continue to support the gold market, with a concave - shaped demand curve that is more sensitive to price declines. [81] - Long - term, the relationship between central bank gold purchases and gold prices is asymmetric. Central banks are more likely to increase purchases when prices fall, and the inhibitory effect on price increases is weaker than the boosting effect on price increases when prices fall. [82] - As of July, the Polish central bank was the largest gold purchaser in 2025, but its gold purchases slowed down in the second half of the year. Many central banks, including those of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, China, and Turkey, maintained a good demand for gold. [89] - According to a survey by the World Gold Council, most central banks expect to increase their gold reserves and reduce their US dollar reserves in the next five years. In the next 12 months, 95% of central banks expect the global central bank's gold reserves to continue to increase. [90][91][98] 5. Precious Metals Market Outlook 5.1 Q4 2025 Outlook: Reaching New Highs and Maintaining Strength - In terms of influencing factors, the decline in the US dollar index and the US Treasury real interest rate has boosted the valuation of precious metals. The rise in the precious metals market in the first half of the year was mainly due to hedging demand and interest - rate cut expectations. Central bank gold purchases provided support, and market supply - demand imbalances in the first quarter also contributed to the rise. Gold entered a consolidation phase from late April to mid - August and broke through after late August. [119] - The demand for silver is weaker than that for gold. Industrial silver demand has stagnated, and the underdeveloped investment channels in the domestic market have limited investment demand. However, the deviation of the gold - to - silver ratio and the small market size of silver have created trading opportunities. [120] - The long - term upward cycle of gold is not over, and any price adjustment should be seen as a buying opportunity. In the fourth quarter, investment demand will shift, and the price of London gold is expected to reach the $4000/ounce area, with support at $3600/ounce. The expected operating range of London silver in the fourth quarter is $42 - 50/ounce. [2][3][121]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In Q4, under the constraints of the "Anti-Involution" and "Overproduction Inspection" policies, the domestic mine operating rate faces a theoretical upper limit, and the supply elasticity of coking coal is limited. As the starting year of the 15th Five-Year Plan in 2026, the long-term market expectation has significantly improved, and this year's winter storage scale is expected to be better than last year, providing phased support for coal and coke prices. However, the rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices ultimately depend on whether the supply-demand balance sheet of the downstream steel sector can achieve a "soft landing." The ideal scenario is for steel mills to proactively ease the steel inventory pressure through early maintenance and production cuts based on the anticipation of profit contraction, creating a favorable upward space for the industrial chain. Conversely, if the production adjustment of steel mills lags, the shrinking terminal demand will exacerbate the finished product inventory contradiction, triggering the negative feedback risk of the black industrial chain and restricting the rebound height of coal prices [1][54]. - The trading range of the coking coal main contract is (1100, 1300), and that of the coke main contract is (1550, 1800). Adopt a range-bound trading strategy for single-sided positions, and focus on the reverse spread between the January and May contracts of coking coal, with an recommended entry range of (-70, -60) [1][54]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 2: Market Review - In the first half of the year, due to factors such as the tariff war, the market had a generally pessimistic outlook on the far-month contracts. As a result, all links in the industrial chain continuously reduced speculative inventories, and the terminal replenishment willingness was low, leading to a deteriorating coking coal inventory structure. A large amount of inventory was积压 at the upstream mines, weakening their bargaining power and resulting in frequent price cuts for promotion. Although the supply-demand contradiction of coke itself was not prominent supported by high hot metal production, the coke price remained difficult to stabilize and showed overall weakness due to the collapse of cost support [2]. - Since June, the expected weak export did not occur. Instead, the year-on-year growth rate of steel exports remained high, and the inventory-to-sales ratio of the five major steel products continued to decline, indicating a healthy steel fundamentals. Meanwhile, the low domestic mine operation and insufficient imported arrivals led to a tightened coking coal supply. Domestically, affected by environmental protection restrictions and regional safety accidents, the operating rates of major coal-producing areas were generally lower than the seasonal average. In terms of imports, the shrinking import profit due to the continuous decline of domestic coal prices in the first half of the year suppressed the import enthusiasm, and the net import volume of coking coal decreased month by month. This structural gap laid the fundamental basis for the subsequent rebound of coking coal. From a valuation perspective, the basis of the coking coal main contract fluctuated between -150 and 150 yuan/ton in the past two years, and this value reached the upper limit at the end of May, indicating significant overselling in the futures market. Subsequently, coking coal started a valuation repair rebound. As the basis turned negative, the cash-and-carry funds entered the market, driving the long-dormant speculative demand to recover and promoting downstream coking enterprises to conduct concentrated replenishment, forming a spiral strengthening mechanism of "futures market rebound - stimulating downstream replenishment - mine de-stocking and price support" [6]. Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.1 Coking Coal Supply: Domestic Coal is Constrained by Policies, and the Operating Rate has a Theoretical Upper Limit - Since July, the national level has elevated the political significance of "anti-involution" in the coal industry to curb disorderly competition and stabilize coal prices. Shanxi Province, as the core production area of coking coal in China, accounts for nearly half of the output and is mainly composed of large state-owned mines, playing a strong exemplary and binding role in policy implementation. Shanxi proposed a production strategy of "increasing output to offset price decline" multiple times in the first half of the year, and there were also overproduction phenomena in some other provinces. From January to June, the output of above-scale industrial raw coal was 2.40 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and the cumulative output was the highest in the same period of the past five years, overusing the production quota for the second half of the year to some extent. To achieve the policy goals of controlling production and stabilizing prices for the whole year, it is expected that major production areas (especially Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi) will face strong overproduction inspection pressure before the end of the year, and the mine operating rate has a theoretical upper limit, which is expected to provide phased support for coking coal prices [11]. - The recently issued "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Iron and Steel Industry (2025 - 2026)" by five departments clearly states that it is necessary to "stabilize the supply of raw fuels, increase the supply and price stability of raw fuels such as iron ore and coking coal, support the normal production of compliant mining enterprises, and avoid 'one-size-fits-all' industry rectification measures." This statement sends a clear policy signal that while ensuring safety production and compliant operation, more attention will be paid to the stability and continuity of the supply side to prevent sharp price fluctuations of raw materials caused by excessive supply tightening. Based on this orientation, the possibility of coking coal prices skyrocketing as in 2021 is relatively low. The current policy environment emphasizes "supply stability and price control" and "precise regulation," which is fundamentally different from the background of strong supply constraints and concentrated demand release in 2021. In addition, the strong overseas demand in 2021 provided additional support for prices, while although exports still show resilience this year, there is limited room for further growth on the basis of last year's high base, making it difficult to reproduce the combined effect of domestic and foreign demand [14]. 3.2 Coking Coal Imports: Pay Attention to the Impact of Imported Coal on the Balance Sheet - Currently, China's dependence on imported coking coal is approaching 20%, and the influence of imported coal on the domestic supply structure is continuously increasing. Since July, the price of Mongolian coal has rebounded by more than 300 yuan/ton from the low level, and the import profit has been rapidly repaired, significantly boosting the customs clearance enthusiasm of major ports such as Ganqimaodu. In terms of seaborne coal, as the domestic coking coal price rebounded, the import window was reopened. Recently, the coal shipments of major global coal-exporting countries have significantly increased, and it is expected that the arrivals of seaborne coking coal will remain at a high level in the fourth quarter. Against the background of the constraints on domestic coal mine operation by factors such as overproduction inspection, safety supervision, and environmental protection, the effective supplement of imported coal helps to relieve the supply pressure. On the other hand, the increasing import dependence also brings hidden concerns about the stability of coking coal supply. If domestic production continues to be restricted and there are disturbances in port transportation, policies, or geopolitics for imported coal (especially Mongolian coal with an increasing proportion), the coking coal supply-demand balance may be broken, significantly impacting prices. Therefore, coking coal imports will be one of the key variables affecting the coking coal market balance in the second half of the year [16]. 3.3 Demand: Positive Outlook at the End of the Year, Pay Attention to the Start Time of Winter Storage - During the Spring Festival, affected by factors such as coal mine holidays and logistics disruptions, the coking coal supply is temporarily tightened, and downstream enterprises usually conduct raw material reserves in advance to ensure production continuity, which is the "winter storage" process. The scale of winter storage is not only restricted by the actual supply but also affected by the downstream's expectation of the market in the coming year. When the expectation is optimistic, the replenishment is active; when it is pessimistic, the reserve is cautious. Looking back at the recent years' patterns, downstream coking plants usually start winter storage about 70 days before the Spring Festival, and the start time is strongly correlated with the rebound of the futures market. In most years, the winter storage behavior starts about one week after the rebound of the main contract and lasts until one week before the Spring Festival (except in 2024, when the market was overly pessimistic about the future, and the futures market did not show a seasonal rebound). The Spring Festival in 2025 is relatively late. Based on the historical winter storage rhythm, it is expected that this round of winter storage will start in mid-to-late November. Considering that 2026 is the starting year of the 15th Five-Year Plan and the policy expectation is positive, the market sentiment is expected to improve compared with last year. Therefore, although it is the traditional off-season, it is expected that the coking coal price will have strong bottom support and certain rebound potential at the end of this year [28]. Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply-Demand Outlook 4.1 Valuation Analysis - When the demand shrinks and causes steel mills to suffer losses, the profit pressure will be transmitted upstream along the industrial chain, usually manifested as steel mills reducing the purchase price of coke, thereby squeezing the coking profit. This feature was显著 in January - February and August - September 2024. In the first half of 2025, benefiting from the continuous decline of coking coal prices, the profits of steel mills and coking plants were generally stable, and there was no large-scale loss, especially the profit performance of steel mills was good. However, since July, as the expectation of the "Anti-Involution" policy has increased, the coking coal price has rebounded strongly, and the downstream profits have begun to be damaged. Coking plants have been the first to fall into losses, and the steel mill profits have also shrunk. Currently, most coking coal mines have turned losses into profits, and most steel products except for rebar can still maintain a profit of 50 - 100 yuan/ton, while coking plants have become the weakest link in the industrial chain, and some regions are approaching the break-even point or even suffering losses. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, if the coking coal price strengthens again due to supply contraction or the negative feedback of the black industrial chain occurs driven by weak demand, the downstream profits will be further pressured, ultimately leading to the reduction of blast furnace and coke oven production, which will in turn restrict the rebound space of coking coal prices [34]. 4.2 Supply-Demand Outlook - In the fourth quarter, under the constraints of the "Anti-Involution" and "Overproduction Inspection" policies, the operating rate of domestic coking coal mines has a theoretical upper limit, and the monthly average output may be lower than the same period in previous years. Meanwhile, the import profit of coking coal has been significantly repaired compared with the first half of the year, promoting the increase of coking coal imports, and the import proportion is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. Overall, although the imports effectively supplement the domestic supply, the coking coal market is unlikely to experience obvious oversupply under the limited domestic output. In addition, as the starting year of the 15th Five-Year Plan in 2026, the positive policy expectation boosts the market sentiment, and the downstream winter storage enthusiasm has increased. It is expected that this year's winter storage scale will be better than the same period last year, providing certain support for the coal price at the end of the year [37]. - There is a strong positive correlation between the short-term supply of coke and the immediate coking profit. As the post-festival coking coal replenishment demand temporarily declines and a round of coke price increase is implemented, the coking profit is expected to be slightly repaired, driving the short-term coke output to remain stable. Due to the high cost of starting and stopping coke ovens, coking plants usually maintain continuous production during the Spring Festival, so there is no significant seasonal characteristic in coke supply. It is expected that the output at the end of the year will be flexibly adjusted according to the coking profit. From the perspective of the capacity structure, the coke industry has been in a long-term overcapacity situation, resulting in its weak bargaining power in the industrial chain. The price mainly follows the fluctuation of the cost-side coking coal, showing obvious cost-driven characteristics. Although the winter storage demand for coking coal in the fourth quarter will support the coke price to a certain extent, limited by the bargaining power, the strength and sustainability of the coke price rebound are expected to be less than those of coking coal. It is recommended that industrial customers pay attention to the selling hedging opportunities of the near-month main contracts to avoid the risk of adverse price fluctuations [39]. - Recently, the rebound of coal prices has caused the steel mill profits to decline from the high level, and some products such as rebar have suffered losses, indicating that the pressure of profit contraction is being transmitted. However, most steel mills can still maintain a profitable state and have not reached the critical point of the negative feedback of the black industrial chain. It is expected that the hot metal production will remain resilient in the short term. However, as the traditional off-season for the black industry in the fourth quarter, the weakening demand will impact the steel supply-demand balance sheet, and the current relatively high hot metal production of over 2.4 million tons per day is difficult to maintain for a long time. In addition, there is also the pressure to meet the annual crude steel production reduction target in the fourth quarter, which may prompt steel mills to adjust their production plans in advance, helping to ease the steel inventory pressure. However, once the production adjustment of steel mills lags or the actual implementation of the crude steel production reduction policy is less than expected, the steel inventory pressure may further increase. Compared with the first half of the year, the absolute value of steel mill profits has significantly decreased, and the sensitivity of steel mills to losses has increased. If the profits are squeezed again, it is easy to trigger a negative feedback decline in the black industrial chain [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third quarter, the pattern of stronger LME zinc and weaker SHFE zinc became more apparent. Macroscopically, domestic narratives such as anti - involution initially boosted non - ferrous metal prices, and the domestic economy had a weak recovery. Subsequently, the Fed's interest rate cut and strengthened subsequent rate - cut expectations drove up the metal sector. However, the price trends of LME zinc and SHFE zinc diverged significantly. Fundamentally, the center of LME zinc moved up while SHFE zinc was suppressed and continued to build a bottom. This was due to overseas smelter cut - offs and production reductions, while domestic smelter operating rates were strongly maintained driven by profits, leading to continuous depletion of overseas inventories. Additionally, the weakening of the internal - external price ratio and its trending phenomenon made it difficult to open the export window in China, resulting in an over - supply of refined zinc that was difficult to consume. It is predicted that SHFE zinc will still follow a bearish logic, but the downward amplitude will be limited due to the support of LME zinc, and it is expected to have a weak and volatile trend in the fourth quarter, with an operating range of 21,580 - 22,300 yuan/ton [1]. - The strategies include: from now until the end of October, if overseas inventories are not visibly increased and the rate - cut expectation remains unchanged, the internal - external positive arbitrage logic remains. When the export window opens or approaches, internal - external reverse arbitrage should be the main strategy. Also, conduct high - selling and low - buying within the range, and sell hedges or sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Viewpoint Summary - The pattern of stronger LME zinc and weaker SHFE zinc is obvious in the third quarter. The subsequent trend of SHFE zinc is expected to be weakly volatile, with a predicted operating range of 21,580 - 22,300 yuan/ton in the fourth quarter [1]. - Investment strategies are proposed, including internal - external arbitrage operations and other trading strategies [2]. Chapter 2: Market Review - In the first half of the year, zinc prices were weak in January and then had a wide - range oscillation in the first quarter. The core contradiction in the first quarter was the initial manifestation of loose expectations and the weakening of actual demand. In January, the expected increase in zinc ore production and the winter stockpiling demand of zinc smelters jointly pushed up the zinc concentrate processing fee. From February to March, the reduction in smelter production around the Spring Festival led to a lower inventory - building amplitude than in previous years, and the absolute value of social inventory was at a historical low. Coupled with the "Golden Three, Silver Four" peak - season expectation, it provided some support for zinc prices. In the second quarter, the main market fluctuations of zinc ingots were caused by Trump's reciprocal tariffs, which impacted the trade situation and market sentiment. In early April, zinc prices followed the market decline due to the unexpectedly high tariff intensity and global pessimistic sentiment. Then, until the end of May, zinc prices returned to the fundamental logic, and the oscillation amplitude of SHFE zinc weakened from strong to weak, maintaining a supply - surplus logic of strong supply and weak demand [3]. - In the third quarter, the core trading logic was the game between macro - level benefits and weak fundamentals, with an overall trend of rising first and then falling. Macroscopically, anti - involution sentiment provided some upward impetus to zinc, especially due to its common demand attributes with both black and non - ferrous metals, and the increase was more prominent. The Fed's interest rate - cut expectation and the weakening of the US dollar index also provided support. However, with the supply growth far exceeding the demand growth, the supply - surplus pattern of SHFE zinc's fundamentals was obvious. As a result, the trend of zinc prices was more entangled compared with other non - ferrous metals. At the end of the quarter, the Fed's interest rate cut met expectations, and the positive impact of the rate - cut story was exhausted, resulting in a weak and volatile trend [3]. Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.1 Macro - Outlook: Optimistic - Globally, major economies led by the US have started an interest rate - cut cycle. The Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points, following the Fed. According to the Fed's economic summary on September 17, most officials expect the interest rate to be in the range of 3.50 - 3.75 this year, indicating at least two more rate cuts, while some are more conservative with an expectation of 4.0 - 4.25. The median expectations of the federal funds rate at the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 are lowered to 3.6%, 3.4%, and 3.1% respectively. The short - term rate - cut expectation has been digested by the market, and the subsequent continuous rate cuts will drive up the prices of basic metals [8]. - In terms of employment, the median expectations of the unemployment rate in the next two years are lowered to 4.4% and 4.3%. Fed Chairman Powell proposed that this rate cut is a risk - management measure to cope with the rapid downward revision of the labor market. The market generally expects a correlation between employment data and the benchmark interest rate [11]. - Domestically, the economy started a weak recovery from July's anti - involution to August. Policies have achieved good results in supporting the overall economy. In August, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 4.4% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.3% year - on - year. In terms of prices, China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year from positive, and the core CPI increase rebounded to 0.9%; the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.9%. In the future, in addition to the main tones of industrial anti - involution and a unified large market, two major policies that will have a greater impact on basic metals this year are the moderately loose monetary policy mainly through reverse repurchase and the local debt and special debt policies to expand domestic demand. Domestic macro - factors are expected to have a positive impact on basic metals this year, and the extent depends on the policy scale [15][16]. - The overall macro - impact on future zinc prices has two interpretations centered around the US dollar index. The downward trend of the US dollar index is inevitable, driven by the Fed's monetary policy and Trump's tariff policy. The decline of the US dollar index is beneficial to commodities denominated in US dollars. However, if economic growth is suppressed by inflation and tariffs, leading to a weakening of demand and employment data, it will have a negative impact. Currently, according to the Samuelson's rule, the economy is not on the recession track, so in the short term, the overall outlook is positive, and long - term macro - data needs to be continuously monitored [18]. 3.2 Internal - External Price Difference: Opportunities for Export and Arbitrage - Since June this year, the price difference between LME zinc and SHFE zinc has been expanding, and it still shows an expanding trend in terms of import profit and loss. The main reason is the difference in internal and external fundamentals. Overseas smelters have low operating willingness due to the low processing - fee benchmark at the beginning of the year (80 US dollars/dry ton) and the impact of losses in 2024. In contrast, domestic smelters have cost advantages, and the increase in processing fees in the first half of the year strongly drove up their operating rates [20]. - It is recommended that investors pay attention to the internal - external reverse - arbitrage opportunity of going long on the domestic market and short on the overseas market. Currently, the export profit and loss is approaching the break - even line, and there is hope for zinc ingot exports to Southeast Asia to make a profit at the end of the year. After zinc ingot exports start, the internal - external price difference may return to a reasonable range [25]. 3.3 Change in Term Structure: Domestic Loose Expectations May Be Exhausted - The term structure of SHFE zinc quietly changed at the end of August. Under the dual influence of macro - narratives such as anti - involution and the oscillation of processing fees, SHFE zinc has changed from a B - structure to a C - structure [26]. - The inconsistent internal and external inventories are also the main factor for the expanding price difference. LME inventory has been in a de - stocking cycle since the beginning of the year, and the change in inventory reveals the weak supply of overseas smelters and the change in inventory structure. The continuous increase in the proportion of canceled warrants in LME warehouses means that more inventory is used for delivery or pick - up rather than storage [27]. - The market may be trading on the logic that the processing fee will decline, leading to losses in the smelting end and a tight supply of refined zinc in the long - term. The start of losses in the smelting end will lead to a decrease in the demand for the mining end, resulting in a tight supply of zinc elements as a whole [29]. Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Zinc Concentrate - **Overseas Mine Production**: According to ILZSG statistics, from January to July 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 7.1918 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.91%; among them, overseas zinc concentrate production was 4.8518 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.91%. Overseas zinc mines have a stable production increase, with most of the increment coming from leading mining enterprises. Due to problems such as force majeure, grade decline, and low recovery rate in mines last year, the production increment this year is obvious, and there is a significant improvement in the second quarter compared with the first quarter. In terms of price, the CIF price of zinc concentrate is tied to LME zinc. Although the imported - ore TC is gradually rising, domestic mines still have a price advantage. In terms of cost, the C1 cost of overseas mines was about 1,950 US dollars/ton at the beginning of the year, and with the obvious upward trend of LME zinc, mines are generally profitable [33][35]. - **Domestic Mine Production**: According to SMM statistics, from January to July 2025, the domestic zinc concentrate production was 2.0679 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.76%. With the production increase of domestic mines in the second quarter, the mine output has increased, but it is still in a relatively tight situation compared with overseas. Affected by the high TC, domestic mine profits have shrunk. Coupled with the weak trend of SHFE zinc, it is difficult for the TC to maintain an upward trend in the future [37]. - **Imports**: Due to the significant recovery of overseas mine production this year, the supply - surplus situation in the mining end has been further transmitted to the import end. The imported zinc concentrate TC has been driven to rise, from a low of - 20 US dollars/dry ton at the beginning of the year to the latest 100 US dollars/dry ton. The processing profit of imported ore has gradually recovered, but the continuous weakening of the internal - external price ratio makes it difficult to increase the smelting end's willingness to purchase. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import of zinc concentrate was 3.5027 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43.07% [41][42]. - **Overall Supply and Inventory**: Combining domestic production and imports, the total supply from January to August was 4.1662 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14.14%. The increment mainly came from the recovery of overseas mine production and the production increase of domestic projects. In terms of inventory, the zinc - ore port inventory is likely to maintain a seasonal stable increase in the future, and the smelter's raw - material inventory days will remain stable. In the long - term, in the fourth quarter, due to the winter shutdown of some mines, the domestic mine supply will shrink to some extent, and the processing fee will maintain a weak and volatile trend, while the imported processing fee is likely to maintain an upward trend. After the internal - external price ratio strengthens, imports may make up for the supply shrinkage. Affected by the strong smelting end, there may be a slight shortage of zinc ore in 2026 [44]. 4.2 Zinc Ingot - **Overseas Inventory and Structure**: Most of the time this year, LME zinc was in a contango structure because of the large number of overseas smelter cut - offs and production reductions, indicating an expected supply shrinkage and a stronger long - term price. In late March, due to the unexpectedly high Trump tariffs, the long - term pessimistic sentiment was short - lived. By June, LME zinc started continuous de - stocking, the inter - month price difference narrowed, and the spot price gradually strengthened due to the decrease in the number of deliverable warrants, forming the current deep - back structure. Although the current inventory has not reached the extreme value, its impact on prices, resonating with the interest rate - cut expectation, forms an upward driving force [50]. - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Production**: According to SMM data, from January to July 2024, the domestic refined - zinc production was about 3.8425 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.65%. The supply - surplus situation in the mining end has been continuously transmitted to the ingot end. The upward trend of TC and the stable by - product revenue have repaired the smelter's profit, driving up the operating rate and putting pressure on the supply end, which suppresses zinc prices [52]. - **Import and Export**: From January to May 2025, China's net import of refined zinc was about 154,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15.08%, mostly from countries along the Belt and Road. Affected by the internal - external price ratio, the import window has been closed for a long time this year. In terms of exports, the import profit and loss still shows a weakening trend. Recently, the export profit and loss of Southeast Asian spot zinc is approaching the break - even line, and there is hope for the export window to open in 2025. According to past data, large - scale exports require the import profit and loss to be below - 4,800 yuan/ton. Currently, the internal - external arbitrage is still in a positive - arbitrage trend [55]. 4.3 Demand - **Domestic Demand** - **Real Estate**: This year, the real - estate industry in China is characterized by a decline in development investment, a decrease in sales area and sales volume, and poor capital availability. In the future, although macro - policies will provide some support, the weak self - demand will still lead to a weak trend. Real - estate policies mainly focus on the structural adjustment of the supply end and the loosening of the demand end. The supply end includes the revitalization of existing stocks, the acquisition of existing houses with special bonds and their transformation into affordable housing to accelerate commodity de - stocking, and strict control of new land use. The demand end includes lowering the first - home mortgage rate and provident - fund rate and relaxing purchase restrictions. Overall, this year's real - estate policies aim to maintain stability and transformation, and the overall basic situation is expected to be maintained, with the decline difficult to deepen further. However, considering the poor overall economic environment, real - estate developers' willingness to acquire land is low, and the area from land acquisition to new construction and completion of houses will continue to decline [61]. - **Automobile**: According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to August 2025, the cumulative automobile production reached 21.051 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.7%; the sales volume was 21.128 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.6%, for the first time achieving a production and sales volume of over 20 million vehicles in the first eight months. The cumulative production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 9.625 million/9.62 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 37.3%/36.7%, with a penetration rate of 45.5%. From January to August, the export volume was 4.292 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%, and the single - month export volume in August was 611,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 19.6%. The export volume of new - energy vehicles from January to August was 1.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 87.3%, accounting for 35.7% of the total automobile export volume, and the single - month export volume in August was 224,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 100%. Looking forward to 2026, according to the "Automobile Industry Stable - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", the sales volume of new - energy vehicles is expected to reach 18 - 20 million vehicles, accounting for more than 50% of the total automobile sales volume, becoming the absolute market leader. The total automobile export volume will exceed 5 million vehicles in 2026, and the proportion of new - energy vehicle exports will exceed 60%. With continuous policy subsidies to promote consumption, the stable growth of the automobile industry will stably drive the demand for zinc, maintaining an annual zinc consumption of 700,000 - 900,000 tons [66]. - **Home Appliances**: In 2026, the white - goods industry is expected to remain stable. In the export market, the double risks of the US's additional tariffs on Chinese home - appliance products and emerging markets have an impact on home - appliance production. Since March

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the logic of low apple premium fruit rate may support price increase before the end of the year, but there may be a situation of high opening and low closing later. For AP2511 and AP2512 contracts, the delivery logic will support price increase, while the AP2601 contract may be a watershed with a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. The price fluctuation range of the AP2601 contract in Q4 is predicted to be 8300 - 9300, with an overall structure of rising first and then falling [2] - The later trend of apples may replicate the 23/24 production season. The AP2511 and AP2512 contracts still have the possibility of further increase, but the AP2601 contract as the main contract has a low possibility of maintaining a high price [26] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Market Review - In Q3 2025, the apple futures price fluctuated and rose, with a quarterly increase of nearly 14% and more than 1000 points. The core factor was the concern that the low premium fruit rate would lead to fewer deliverable fruits. There were three stages of increase: in July, affected by the lower - than - expected quality of early - maturing varieties and low inventory of late Fuji, the price rose, with a large - amplitude callback at the end of July and early August; from August to early September, due to the prominent problem of premium fruit rate of Gala and bad weather, the price rose with better continuity, and there was a 4% decline on September 9; from mid - to late September, after the decline on September 9 was quickly repaired, the price continued to rise, reaching a new high of 8619 on September 29 [3] Chapter 3: Core Concerns 3.1 This year's apple quality problems are numerous - **Inventory situation**: In the 24/25 season, due to the concern of over - production, the入库 amount was lower than expected. The de - stocking speed was fast before June and slowed down after entering the off - season. As of September 25, the national apple inventory was 14.79 million tons according to Zhuochuang data and 12.18 million tons according to Steel Union data, both slightly lower than last year and at a historically low level [8] - **Yield situation**: The apple planting area in the 25/26 season is similar to that in the 24/25 season. According to bagging data, Zhuochuang predicts a yield of 3659.04 million tons, a 2.03% year - on - year decrease, while Steel Union predicts 3736.64 million tons, a 2.35% year - on - year increase. Overall, the yield change is about ±2% compared with last year. After entering the bag - removing period, the small fruit size of late Fuji became prominent, and the national yield is likely to be revised down [13][14] - **Quality situation**: This year's apple quality problems were prominent in early - maturing fruits, including small fruit size, green - returning, and water - cracking. The price of early - maturing Qin Yang showed a high - opening and low - closing trend. The quality problems of Gala apples were mainly fruit rust and water - cracking, with a serious market polarization. The size of Western early Fuji was smaller than before, and the price first rose and then fell. The price of Shandong Red General also declined. The price of early - picked Fuji was higher than last year, but the size of late Fuji was smaller than last year, and the National Day rain may affect the quality [19][20] 3.2 How many deliverable fruits are there? - Due to the poor quality of apples in the 25/26 production season, the number of deliverable fruits will be far less than that in the 24/25 production season. For now, it's impossible to estimate the number of apples meeting the delivery rules. The AP2510 and AP2511 contracts may have high - price deliveries, and the AP2601 contract may have the most intense delivery game. The 03, 04, and 05 contracts have great uncertainties and are more affected by consumption factors [24] Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Apple Valuation Feedback - Using simple statistics, the current apple valuation is at about 75% of the past five - year level, relatively high but still with upward space. Since the listing of apples, the current price is less than 50%. The apple futures delivery rules have been modified many times. There is a possibility that the later trend of apples will replicate the 23/24 production season [25] 4.2 Apple Supply - Demand Outlook - Apple supply is basically determined with the harvest of late Fuji, and the final confirmation is when the cold - storage inventory data is released. This year, the inventory may be higher due to the expected yield reduction, late harvest, small fruit size, and poor quality. The consumption end needs to focus on key nodes such as the Spring Festival, and the apple price has tended to decline after the Spring Festival in the past few years [28]