Report Overview - Report Title: Iron Ore Risk Management Report - Report Date: October 10, 2025 - Analyst: Zhou Fuhan (Investment Consulting License No. Z0020173) - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term iron ore fundamentals are under marginal pressure, with high shipments, inventory accumulating above the seasonal level. Although downstream hot metal production provides support, steel demand is weak, inventories are piling up, and profits are declining, leading to the accumulation of industrial chain contradictions. The price is expected to rise first and then fall, remaining in a range - bound oscillation. The short - term rhythm depends on whether macro expectations can support the upward valuation; otherwise, it's difficult for the price to have a trending upward movement [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Price Forecast and Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The price forecast range for the iron ore 11 - contract in October is 780 - 850, with the current at - the - money option IV at 19.14% and the historical volatility quantile at 11.3% [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For those with current iron ore inventory worried about future price drops (long risk exposure), the strategies include directly short - selling iron ore futures (I2511) to lock in profits with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 840 - 850, and selling call options (I2511 - C - 850) to collect premiums with a 30% ratio by selling at high prices [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For those planning to purchase iron ore in the future and worried about price increases (short risk exposure), the strategies are directly going long on iron ore futures (I2511) to lock in costs with a 30% hedging ratio at an entry range of 780 - 790, and selling out - of - the - money put options (I2511 - P - 790). If the price falls below the strike price, hold long futures positions with a 40% ratio by selling at high prices [2]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Iron Ore Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and is expected to cut twice more this year, leading to loose global financial conditions and an expected upward movement of the global manufacturing PMI. Hot metal production remains at a high level, and there are short - term supply disruptions [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Despite high hot metal production, steel inventories are still high, putting pressure on the fundamentals. Although rebar production cuts have relieved inventory pressure, the transfer of hot metal to hot - rolled coil production has led to above - seasonal inventory accumulation of hot - rolled coils. Iron ore shipments have increased, with non - mainstream shipments at a seasonal high, and global iron ore shipments have turned from a cumulative year - on - year negative to positive. After pre - holiday steel mill restocking, port iron ore inventories have started to accumulate above the seasonal level. Macro - level positive news has been fully digested, and the anti - involution trend in the industrial sector has not continued. Steel mill profits continue to be under pressure [4][5]. 3.3 Iron Ore Price Data - **Futures Contract Closing Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 795, 774.5, and 753 respectively, with daily changes of 4.5, 3.5, and 2.5, and weekly changes of - 10.5, - 11, and - 12 [4]. - **Basis**: The 01, 05, and 09 basis on October 10, 2025, were - 6, 14.5, and 36 respectively, with daily changes of 0.5, 1.5, and 2.5, and weekly changes of 4.5, - 1, and 1.5 [4][6]. - **Spot Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special fines were 788, 923, and 715 respectively [6]. - **Platts Index**: On October 10, 2025, the Platts 58%, 62%, and 65% indexes were 95.85, 107.4, and 121.3 respectively, with daily changes of 1.3, 1.55, and 1.8, and weekly changes of 1.85, 3.3, and 3.55 [7]. 3.4 Iron Ore Fundamental Data - **Production and Consumption - related Data**: As of October 10, 2025, the daily average hot metal production was 241.54, with a weekly change of - 0.27 and a monthly change of 0.99. The 45 - port ore removal volume was 327, with a weekly change of - 9.4 and a monthly change of 9.22. The apparent demand for five major steel products was 751, with a weekly change of - 153 and a monthly change of - 92 [13]. - **Shipment and Arrival Data**: The global shipment volume was 3279, with a weekly change of - 196.4 and a monthly change of 522.8. The Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2727.4, with a weekly change of - 39.6 and a monthly change of 460.4. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2608.7, with a weekly change of 248.2 and a monthly change of 160.7 [13]. - **Inventory Data**: The 45 - port inventory was 14024.5, with a weekly change of 24.22 and a monthly change of 199.18. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 9046.19, with a weekly change of - 990.6 and a monthly change of 53.14. The available days for 247 steel mills were 30.24, with a weekly change of - 3.35 and a monthly change of - 0.08 [13].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Today, the futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) fluctuated and declined. Except for EC2510, all other contracts saw varying degrees of decline. Short - term, the futures price is likely to continue to fluctuate with a downward trend, but the cease - fire process in Gaza may be repeated. Strategies can be relatively bearish or a 10 - 12 positive spread strategy can be adopted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content EC Risk Management Strategy - For those with full shipping space or poor booking volume and worried about falling freight rates (long spot exposure), they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1700 - 1750 to lock in profits [2]. - For those hoping to book space based on orders and worried about rising freight rates (short spot exposure), they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1500 - 1550 to determine booking costs in advance [2]. Core Contradiction Analysis - The decline in today's futures price is due to the initial cease - fire negotiation in Gaza and the possibility of Maersk resuming Red Sea transportation, as well as China's counter - measures against the US port fee on Chinese ships. The rise of the 10 - contract is because Maersk issued a November price increase letter [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Lido Factor**: Maersk will increase the FAK rates from major Asian ports to Rotterdam from November 3, with rates rising to $1625/TEU and $2500/FEU [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Maersk may resume Red Sea transportation; China will collect special port fees on US - related ships starting from October 14, 2025, with the fee increasing in stages [3][5]. EC Price and Related Data - **EC Basis**: On October 11, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was - 74.60, with a daily decline of 1.20 and a weekly decline of 156.52. Other contracts also had different basis changes [7]. - **EC Closing Price and Spread**: On October 11, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1121.1, up 0.11% daily and down 4.42% weekly. Different contract spreads also had corresponding changes [7]. Shipping Price and Index - **Container Spot Quotes**: Maersk's container quotes from Shanghai to Rotterdam showed an upward trend in different departure dates in October [9]. - **Global Freight Index**: The SCFIS European route decreased by 6.60%, the SCFIS US - West route decreased by 4.82%, while the SCFI European route increased by 9.99%, and other indices had different changes [10]. Port Waiting Time - On October 10, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.656 days compared to the previous day, while Shanghai Port increased by 0.305 days. Other ports also had different waiting time changes [14]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ships - On October 10, 2025, the speed of 8000 + container ships decreased by 0.013 compared to the previous day, and the number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor increased by 6 [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but in the short term, there is adjustment pressure, and attention should be paid to the progress of the silver squeeze event. It is not advisable to chase the rise of London gold in the short term, and it is recommended to hold the previous long - position bottom position and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the precious metals sector fluctuated significantly, showing a trend of rising first and then falling. The squeeze and shortage in the LBMA silver spot market were the main reasons for the sharp intraday rise in silver prices. The final closing prices of relevant contracts were: COMEX gold 2512 contract at $3991.1 per ounce, down 1.95%; COMEX silver 2512 contract at $47.655 per ounce, down 2.73%; SHFE gold 2512 contract at 914.32 yuan per gram, up 4.82%; SHFE silver 2512 contract at 11169 yuan per kilogram, up 2.22% [2] Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The overall expectation of interest rate cuts is stable. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 94.1%. In December, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 0.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 17.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 82%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 10.7%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 56.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 32.7%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 1.14 tons to 1013.44 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15415.53 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 5.5 tons to 1186.8 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 43.6 tons to 1172.4 tons in the week ending September 26 [3] This Week's Focus - Pay attention to the preliminary value of the October US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index tonight. At 21:45, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will give an opening speech and host a discussion at a community bankers' seminar. At 01:00 on Saturday, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will give a speech [4] Precious Metals Price and Spread Data - The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and SGX precious metals futures and spot are provided in the "Precious Metals Futures and Spot Price Table", including SHFE gold main - continuous contract at 914.32 yuan per gram, up 4.57%; SGX gold TD at 911.38 yuan per gram, up 4.59%; CME gold main contract at $3991.1 per ounce, down 1.71%; SHFE silver main - continuous contract at 11169 yuan per kilogram, up 2.3%; SGX silver TD at 11176 yuan per kilogram, up 2.94%; CME silver main contract at $47.655 per ounce, down 1.62%. Also, data on SHFE - TD gold and silver spreads, and CME gold - silver ratio are provided [6][7] Inventory and Position Data - The "Inventory and Position Table" shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as SPDR gold and SLV silver holdings. For example, SHFE gold inventory is 70728 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory is 1242.2946 tons, down 0.39%; SHFE gold position is 251137 lots, down 2.23%; SHFE silver inventory is 1186.846 tons, down 0.46%; CME silver inventory is 16364.308 tons, down 0.39%; SGX silver inventory is 1172.37 tons, down 3.66%; SHFE silver position is 477441 lots, up 0.25%; SLV silver holdings is 15452.228555 tons, up 0.24% [15] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The "Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview" table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of various financial and commodity indicators, such as the US dollar index at 99.3875, up 0.55%; US dollar against the Chinese yuan at 7.1358, down 0.24%; Dow Jones Industrial Average at 46358.42 points, down 0.52%; WTI crude oil spot at $62.55 per barrel, up 1.33%; LmeS copper 03 at $10776.5 per ton, up 0.74%; 10 - year US Treasury yield at 4.14%, up 0.24%; 10 - year US real interest rate at 1.8%, up 1.12%; 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread at 0.55%, down 3.51% [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - Today's stock market declined, fully erasing yesterday's gains. Although the trading volume of the two markets decreased, it remained above 2.5 trillion yuan. The decline in precious metals overnight led to a drop in the structural driving force, causing non - ferrous metals to correct significantly and technology - related concepts to lead the decline. Cyclical industries showed relatively strong performance but with limited driving force. Short - term structural changes may continue to cause the stock index to fluctuate widely. With important information to be released at home and abroad later this month, the stock market is unlikely to deviate significantly from the current level, and the correction space is limited. It is necessary to observe whether the support of the 5 - day moving average is effective [5] Summary by Directory Market Review - The stock index declined today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 1.97%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 137.583 billion yuan. Among stock index futures, IC declined with shrinking volume, while other varieties declined with increasing volume [3] Important Information - On October 10, three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued an announcement on adjusting the technical requirements for energy - saving and new - energy vehicle products eligible for vehicle and vessel tax incentives. Reuters reported on October 10 that the number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the US increased again last week, indicating that some contractors related to the US government shutdown laid off employees in advance. Starting from October 14, 2025, the maritime management institutions at the ports where the ships berth will collect special port fees for ships owned, operated by US enterprises, organizations or individuals, or ships with US - related equity stakes, US - flagged ships, and ships built in the US [4] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [6] Futures Market Observation - The intraday percentage changes of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were - 2.18%, - 1.60%, - 2.24%, and - 1.71% respectively. The trading volumes were 1.6215 million lots, 0.73933 million lots, 1.7039 million lots, and 2.3345 million lots respectively, with环比 increases of 0.26302 million lots, 0.14217 million lots, 0.14916 million lots, and 0.19721 million lots respectively. The open interests were 2.78581 million lots, 1.05743 million lots, 2.60074 million lots, and 3.56927 million lots respectively, with环比 changes of 0.01506 million lots, 0.0217 million lots, - 0.08282 million lots, and 0.03851 million lots respectively [6][8] Spot Market Observation - The percentage changes of the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index were - 0.94% and - 2.70% respectively. The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 1.06. The trading volume of the two markets was 2,515.614 billion yuan, a decrease of 137.583 billion yuan compared with the previous day [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate, and it is not advisable to chase high after the rebound. Partial profit - taking of long positions can be considered [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. Trading volume of TF, T, and TL contracts decreased significantly. Cash bond trading was light, and yields declined across the board. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.33. Open - market reverse repurchase was 61.2 billion,买断式逆回购 was 110 billion, and the net withdrawal was 35.13 billion [1]. 3.2. Intraday News - The minutes of the Fed's September monetary policy meeting showed differences within the Fed regarding the subsequent rate - cut amplitude. The Ministry of Commerce announced the decision to implement export controls on relevant overseas rare - earth items [2]. 3.3. Market Analysis and Judgment - Treasury bond futures continued the pre - holiday rebound trend today, unaffected by the sharp rise in the stock market. Due to some investment managers and traders still on vacation, market trading was relatively light. The National Development and Reform Commission announced at a press conference before the holiday that it would work with relevant parties to promote new policy - based financial instruments with a scale of 500 billion yuan to supplement project capital. In the future, attention should be paid to the central bank's specific arrangements for this policy. In the short term, the central bank may still prefer to use structural tools to support the real economy and postpone the timing of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts [3]. 3.4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 09 Price | 2025 - 09 - 30 Price | Today's Change | 2025 - 10 - 09 Position (Lots) | 2025 - 09 - 30 Position (Lots) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.41 | 102.374 | 0.036 | 75,441 | 74,895 | 546 | | TF2512 | 105.75 | 105.655 | 0.095 | 149,401 | 150,436 | - 1035 | | T2512 | 108.05 | 107.885 | 0.165 | 252,116 | 249,185 | 2931 | | TL2512 | 114.53 | 114 | 0.53 | 174,133 | 170,726 | 3407 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0372 | - 0.0131 | - 0.0241 | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 29,898 | 29,604 | 294 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.034 | - 0.0013 | - 0.0327 | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 51,620 | 62,260 | - 10640 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0524 | 0.2077 | - 0.1553 | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 73,515 | 91,682 | - 18167 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.319 | 0.3574 | - 0.0384 | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 97,276 | 135,369 | - 38093 | [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is on the export demand of US soybeans under the background of China - US negotiations. The market will remain in a narrow bottom - range oscillation until actual Chinese purchase orders emerge. The short - term impact of the quarterly inventory report during the holiday is neutral, and attention should be paid to whether the October USDA report will adjust the previous yield. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is recovering, and there are no major yield issues for the new crop. The upside of the domestic soybean complex is constrained by high near - term inventory, and the domestic market is expected to be under pressure, but there are opportunities for long - position valuation repair supported by costs. The domestic rapeseed complex is mainly affected by China - Canada negotiation results and is influenced by supply recovery expectations and soybean meal in the short term [4]. - There is still a bullish sentiment for far - month contracts due to supply - demand gaps, and the Brazilian export premium supports far - month contract prices from the cost side. However, the near - term supply is high, with high port and oil - mill inventories of imported soybeans in China, increasing oil - mill crushing volumes, and a seasonal inventory build - up trend for soybean meal. Rapeseed meal follows soybean meal but is slightly stronger. After the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts, the pressure on soybean and rapeseed meal warehouse receipts has increased again, making the near - term supply pressure the dominant factor in the market [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.4%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2350 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 38.6% [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - For feed mills with low inventory and wanting to purchase based on orders, they can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Percentage Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 2939 | 11 | 0.38% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2755 | 17 | 0.62% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2863 | 16 | 0.56% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2435 | 14 | 0.58% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2334 | 17 | 0.73% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2415 | 12 | 0.5% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1029.75 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1527 | 0.0096 | 0.13% | [6][8] 3.4 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Price Spreads - The M01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 184 with a daily change of - 6, and the RM01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 101 with a daily change of - 3. - The M05 - 09 spread of soybean meal is - 108 with a daily change of 1, and the RM05 - 09 spread of rapeseed meal is - 81 with a daily change of 5. - The M09 - 01 spread of soybean meal is - 76 with a daily change of 5, and the RM09 - 01 spread of rapeseed meal is - 20 with a daily change of - 2. - The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2950 with a daily change of 10, and the basis is 11 with a daily change of - 1. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2540 with no daily change, and the basis is 105 with no daily change. - The spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 410 with a daily change of 10, and the futures price spread is 504 with a daily change of - 3 [9]. 3.5 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4471.4503 | - 32.1737 | 0.031 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3975.71 | 67.65 | 65.91 | | Cost Difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) | - 727.0651 | - 12.6593 | - 12.0831 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 622.9153 | - 32.1737 | - 44.9143 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 30.936 | - 5.1388 | - 0.2864 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 1027 | 29 | 188 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 1247 | 49 | 211 | [10]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: October 9, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility Forecast Nickel - Price Range Forecast: 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton - Current Volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.17% - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 3.2% [2] Stainless Steel - Price Range Forecast: 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton - Current Volatility (20 - day rolling): 6.62% - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 0.1% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Nickel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Sell NI main - contract futures according to inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, sell - side ratio 60%, strategy grade 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options), sell - side ratio 50%, strategy grade 2 [2] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy far - month NI contracts according to production plan to lock in production costs, buy - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 3 - Strategy 2: Sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), sell - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 1 - Strategy 3: Buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), buy - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 3 [2] Stainless Steel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Sell SS main - contract futures according to inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, sell - side ratio 60%, strategy grade 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options), sell - side ratio 50%, strategy grade 2 [3] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy far - month SS contracts according to production plan to lock in production costs, buy - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 3 - Strategy 2: Sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), sell - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 1 - Strategy 3: Buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), buy - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 3 [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Nickel and stainless steel prices rose strongly during the day, and the overall non - ferrous metals market was strong. - In the nickel ore market, Indonesia shortened the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year, and the 2026 quota is expected to decline. - In the new energy market, the downstream procurement willingness recovered after the holiday, with tight market circulation, low inventory, and continued strong subsequent quotes. - The upward momentum of nickel - iron prices has dissipated, but the downward space is limited due to cost pressure. - In the stainless steel market, spot transactions improved after the holiday, and export prospects are positive, which may relieve the pressure of weak demand recovery. [3] Group 5: Market Sentiment Analysis Bullish Factors - Indonesia shortened the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year. - The Indonesian Forestry Working Group took over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay. - CATL and Antam promoted the continuous construction of the nickel integrated smelter. - The WTO ruled that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel was illegal. - The exemption of India's BIS certification was extended to the end of the year. [5] Bearish Factors - High pure nickel inventory. - Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist. - As of now, the demand recovery during the "Golden September and Silver October" period has fallen short of expectations. [5] Group 6: Market Data Nickel | Indicator | Latest Value | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel Main - continuous | 124,480 | 3,580 | 3% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 1 | 124,480 | 3,580 | 2.96% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 2 | 124,660 | 3,600 | 2.97% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 3 | 124,850 | 3,580 | 2.97% | yuan/ton | | LME Nickel 3M | 15,382 | - 103 | - 2.95% | US dollars/ton | | Trading Volume | 130,864 | 3,674 | 2.89% | lots | | Open Interest | 86,038 | 9,898 | 13.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 24,775 | - 42 | - 0.17% | tons | | Basis of Main Contract | - 610 | 135 | - 18.1% | yuan/ton | [5] Stainless Steel | Indicator | Latest Value | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless Steel Main - continuous | 1,286 | 130 | 1% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 1 | 1,286 | 130 | 1.02% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 2 | 1,288 | 130 | 1.02% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 3 | 1,295 | 120 | 0.94% | yuan/ton | | Trading Volume | 88,195 | - 39,957 | - 31.18% | lots | | Open Interest | 60,514 | - 7,320 | - 10.79% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 86,551 | - 418 | - 0.48% | tons | | Basis of Main Contract | 840 | 30 | 3.70% | yuan/ton | [6] Group 7: Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Latest Value (tons) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel | 40,828 | - 656 | | LME Nickel Inventory | 236,892 | 4,260 | | Stainless Steel Social Inventory | 909 | 11.8 | | Nickel Pig Iron Inventory | 28,652 | - 614.5 | [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar supply surplus persists, and with the expected increase in production in India and Thailand in October, sugar prices are under pressure. However, multiple typhoons in late September and early October have affected sugarcane in Guangxi, and the losses are yet to be estimated [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the sugar market. Positive factors include sufficient sugar inventory in India for domestic consumption, China's suspension of imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder, Brazil's increase in ethanol and biodiesel blending ratios, and typhoon - related damage to sugarcane. Negative factors include changes in production, supply, and sales data in various regions [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of sugar is predicted to be between 5200 - 5700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.50% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.2% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2511) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5600 - 5650, and sell call options (SR601C5700) with a 50% ratio at an entry range of 60 - 80 to lock in profits and reduce costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2511) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5450 - 5500, and sell put options (SR601P5400) with a 50% ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to lock in procurement costs [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The global sugar supply surplus situation continues. The expected increase in production in India and Thailand suppresses sugar prices. In China, the expected increase in production due to expanded planting areas may be affected by typhoons in Guangxi [4]. 3.3 Positive and Negative Factors - **Positive Factors**: - India's 2024/25 sugar ending inventory is estimated to be 480 - 500 million tons, sufficient for domestic consumption from October to November 2025 [5]. - China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder [5]. - Brazil has increased the mandatory blending ratio of ethanol in gasoline from 27% to 30% and biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15% [5]. - Typhoons have damaged sugarcane in Guangdong and Guangxi [5]. - **Negative Factors**: - In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, Guangxi's sugar production increased while the amount of crushed sugarcane decreased [6]. - The global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 740 million tons, the highest since 2017/18 [6]. - In August 2025, China's sugar imports increased year - on - year, and the situation in different periods varies [8]. - In the first half of September, Brazil's sugar production in the central - southern region increased significantly [9]. - As of the end of August, the sugar sales and inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan showed different trends [9]. 3.4 Price Data - **Basis**: On October 9, 2025, the basis between different regions (Nanning, Kunming) and sugar futures contracts (SR01 - SR11) showed different daily and weekly changes [10]. - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On October 9, 2025, the closing prices, daily and weekly changes of sugar futures contracts (SR01 - SR11), and the spreads between different contracts showed various trends [11]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: On October 9, 2025, the spot prices of sugar in different regions (Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, Rizhao) and the regional spreads showed different daily and weekly changes [12]. - **Sugar Import Prices**: On October 9, 2025, the quota - within and quota - outside import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar and their spreads with domestic prices showed different daily and weekly changes [13][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The stock market rose with increased trading volume today. Among the scale - based indices, the CSI 500 index showed the strongest performance. In the industry, affected by the gold price increase due to the US government shutdown during the holiday and the export control of rare earths, the non - ferrous metals sector led the gain. The technology concept was boosted by chip - related information, with the STAR 50 index rising over 5% during the session and closing up 2.93%. Overseas stock indices performed strongly during the holiday, providing a positive sentiment basis. The stock index gap - opened higher in the morning, and the upward movement during the session was mainly driven by structural positive factors. The upward trend converged after the lunch break. The short - term structural pull is expected to continue. After the stock index continuously broke new highs, the overall sentiment is positive, and the trend is expected to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is advisable to continue holding positions and wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The stock index continued to rise today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 1.48%. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 471.868 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties rose with increased volume [2]. Important Information - The Shanghai Composite Index stood above 3900 points in the morning, hitting a 10 - year high, and the gold and controllable nuclear fusion concepts exploded. - The Ministry of Commerce announced the decision to implement export control on overseas rare earth items and related technologies. - The US approved NVIDIA to sell chips worth billions of dollars to the UAE [6]. Strategy Recommendation Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday % change | 1.47 | 1.25 | 1.74 | 0.56 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 13.5848 | 5.9716 | 15.5474 | 21.3729 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | 2.5179 | 1.214 | 2.6918 | - 0.3141 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.7075 | 10.3573 | 26.8356 | 35.3076 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 1.4919 | 0.4378 | 2.1599 | 0.1437 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite % change | 1.32 | | Shenzhen Component % change | 1.47 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.47 | | Total trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 2653.197 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | 471.786 | [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic economic repair depends on the demand side, with potential incremental policies. Overseas, the US government shutdown increases market uncertainty, and the Fed's decision - making may be affected. The Japanese political situation also impacts the market [2]. - The RMB exchange rate needs continuous improvement in internal and external environments and policy signals for trend - like appreciation. Short - term strategies are provided for export and import enterprises [4]. - A - shares are expected to be easy to rise and hard to fall after the holiday, with a likely structural market. Attention should be paid to multiple events in the future [7]. - Treasury bonds are expected to continue the oscillatory trend, and it is advisable to enter long positions at low prices without chasing high [8]. - The shipping market is affected by the US policy on Chinese ships and the Gaza cease - fire negotiation. The 10 - contract may decline, and other contracts are likely to oscillate [12]. - Precious metals are expected to remain strong, but there may be price adjustments. Any adjustment is a mid - to - long - term buying opportunity [13][14][15]. - Copper prices are driven up by supply disruptions and Fed's rate - cut expectations. However, high - price industrial acceptance is a risk [16][17]. - Nickel prices are expected to rise slightly after the holiday, showing an oscillatory and strong pattern, and attention should be paid to multiple factors [18]. - For lithium carbonate, focus on downstream restocking. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the price of industrial silicon may rise slightly, and polysilicon has high volatility and risks [20][21]. - Steel products face de - stocking pressure, and the market is expected to be under pressure. Iron ore prices are likely to rise in the short - term due to supply disturbances. Coal and coke prices' rebound depends on the steel market. Ferroalloys have prominent supply - demand contradictions [24][27][28]. - LPG is expected to run weakly. PX - TA and MEG - bottle chips are expected to oscillate weakly. Methanol supply pressure increases. PVC is in a weak - reality and strong - policy - disturbance pattern. Pure benzene and styrene follow the cost decline. Fuel oil is expected to open flat, and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to open slightly lower. Asphalt may open slightly lower, with a possible last - chance rise this year [30][33][34][37][39][40][41][42][44]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to oscillate weakly. Propylene prices rise slightly [45][47][48][49]. - The pig market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and it is advisable to short at high prices. Oilseeds are affected by Sino - US negotiations. Oils may rebound after the holiday. Soybean prices are expected to decline. Cotton prices are under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds. Sugar prices may open high and go high in the short - term. Egg prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to be cautious. Apple prices may rise due to bad weather. Red dates may face downward pressure [52][54][56][59][61][63][65][66][68]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Key information includes the Fed's meeting minutes, the US government shutdown, the US budget deficit, and international political situations. Domestic economic repair focuses on the demand side, and overseas uncertainties increase [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange rate data is provided. The RMB exchange rate is affected by the Fed's decision, the US government shutdown, and the Japanese political situation. Short - term strategies for enterprises are given [3][4]. Stock Index - Before the holiday, A - shares were strong, and overseas stock indexes were also strong during the holiday. A - shares are expected to be easy to rise and hard to fall, with attention on multiple events [6][7]. Treasury Bonds - The Fed's internal differences and the US government shutdown are important information. The bond market rebounded before the holiday, and it is expected to oscillate after the holiday [8]. Container Shipping - Spot market prices are relatively stable. Global trade volume and the Gaza cease - fire negotiation are key factors. Short - term strategies for different contracts are provided [9][10][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Prices rose strongly during the holiday, driven by investment demand, inflation concerns, and the US government shutdown. Attention should be paid to data release and the Fed's meeting [13][14]. - **Copper**: Prices rose during the holiday due to supply disruptions and Fed's rate - cut expectations. There are concerns about industrial acceptance at high prices [16][17]. - **Nickel**: Prices were strong during the holiday, affected by Indonesian policies. It is expected to rise slightly after the holiday with limited upward momentum [18]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: There were no significant changes during the holiday. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production and downstream restocking [20]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: There were no significant changes during the holiday. Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly, and polysilicon has high volatility and risks [21]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Inventory increased significantly during the holiday. The market faces de - stocking pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances increase. The price is expected to rise in the short - term due to demand recovery and supply issues [25][26][27]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Supply elasticity is limited, and the price is supported by winter storage. The rebound depends on the steel market. Strategies for different contracts are provided [28][29]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: There is a prominent supply - demand contradiction, with high supply and weak demand [29]. Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: Overseas prices were weak during the holiday. Supply pressure remains in the fourth quarter, and the demand requirement is higher [30]. - **PTA - PX**: It oscillates weakly with the cost side. The polyester season is not very strong, and PTA processing fees have limited expansion [33]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: There is a marginal improvement in supply and demand, but the long - term inventory increase expectation makes it difficult to break through upward [34][35][36]. - **Methanol**: Supply pressure increases, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [37]. - **PVC**: There were few changes during the holiday. The market is in a weak - reality and strong - policy - disturbance pattern [38][39]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices follow the cost decline. The supply of pure benzene is high, and the supply of styrene will increase later. Consider widening the price spread [40]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to open flat, with a strong self - performance. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to open slightly lower, following the cost [41][42]. - **Asphalt**: Supply increases, and demand is affected by weather and funds. There may be a last - chance rise this year [43][44]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: They are expected to oscillate weakly, with different influencing factors for each [45][47][48]. - **Propylene**: Prices rise slightly, with changes in supply and demand [49]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: Prices declined during the holiday, in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. Short at high prices [52][53]. - **Oilseeds**: Affected by Sino - US negotiations, with different trends in the internal and external markets. Strategies for contracts are provided [54][55]. - **Oils**: May rebound after the holiday, with different supply and demand situations for different oils [56][57][58]. - **Soybeans**: Prices are expected to decline, with attention on policy and market factors [59][60]. - **Cotton**: Prices are under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds, with a focus on multiple factors [61][62]. - **Sugar**: Prices may open high and go high in the short - term, affected by production and disasters [63][64]. - **Eggs**: Prices were weak during the holiday, and it is advisable to be cautious or short far - month contracts [65]. - **Apples**: Prices may rise due to bad weather, with different price levels for good and poor - quality products [66][67]. - **Red Dates**: May face downward pressure, with attention on weather and inventory [68].