Group 1 - The aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 3100.0 CNY/ton and a decline of 2.39% observed, reaching a low of 3055.0 CNY [1] - Domestic aluminum oxide production capacity has rebounded to historical highs, leading to an oversupply situation, while the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange remains low at just over 20,000 tons, making it difficult for futures to decline significantly [1] - There are expectations of production resumption from Guinea mining companies, and with the upcoming import of aluminum oxide in July, the supply pressure is expected to persist [1] Group 2 - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures indicates that the current aluminum oxide spot prices are maintaining a slight premium due to limited spot liquidity, but further upward movement requires more bullish signals from production capacity and inventory changes [2] - The short-term outlook for aluminum oxide is expected to be dominated by fluctuations, while medium to long-term supply pressures remain significant [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures' overseas subsidiary, Henghua International, has become one of the first LME warrant holders in Hong Kong, enhancing the city's role as a major hub for commodity pricing and storage in Asia [3][4]. Group 1: Business Development - Henghua International's status as a first LME warrant holder aligns with Hong Kong's strategic goal of becoming a world-class commodity storage center, providing new opportunities for Nanhua Futures in the Asian metal market [3][4]. - The Hong Kong government is actively promoting the establishment of world-class storage facilities for gold and base metals, which will increase commodity storage capacity and support the LME's operations in the region [4]. Group 2: Market Impact - The establishment of LME warehouses in Hong Kong will significantly reduce logistics costs and streamline processes for Asian companies involved in international metal trading, enhancing their participation in global metal pricing [4]. - The proximity of Hong Kong to the Pearl River Delta industrial zone, along with its efficient customs processes, provides a convenient physical delivery platform for the Asian metal industry [4]. Group 3: Service Model Innovation - Nanhua Futures has developed a comprehensive service model that includes shipping, customs clearance, warehousing, warrant generation, hedging, and warrant financing, significantly lowering cross-border transaction costs for Chinese enterprises [6][8]. - As a first LME warrant holder, Nanhua Futures has gained a competitive edge in attracting international metal traders and manufacturers, enhancing customer loyalty and service capabilities [7]. Group 4: Future Growth Strategy - Nanhua Futures plans to leverage its LME Hong Kong delivery business to enhance its service capabilities for real enterprises and expand the tools available for price risk hedging [8]. - The company aims to integrate financial technology into its operations to improve service standardization and digitalization, thereby strengthening its competitiveness in cross-border commodity services [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but short - term fluctuations will intensify. It is recommended to control positions. For London gold, pay attention to the support at the 3300 mark, and for London silver, the support is around 37.3. The strategy of buying on dips is still maintained [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market adjusted. The sharp rise of the US dollar index and the 10Y US Treasury yield was a negative factor. The surrounding US stocks and Bitcoin declined, crude oil fluctuated, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals fluctuated. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3330.5 per ounce, down 0.85%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.985 per ounce, down 1.95%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was 780.4 yuan per gram, up 1.06%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was 9225 yuan per kilogram, up 0.52% [1] Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut in September has slightly cooled. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 45.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 53.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 1.4%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 22%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 49.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 28.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 0.7%. The daily holdings of SPDR Gold ETF remained at 947.64 tons, and the holdings of iShares Silver ETF decreased by 110.22 tons to 14856.02 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 1 ton to 1223 tons daily, and SGX silver inventory increased by 7.3 tons to 1327.2 tons in the week ending July 4 [2] This Week's Focus - This week, focus on the US CPI data on Tuesday evening. On Thursday at 02:00, the Fed will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions; at 05:30, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak on the US economy and monetary policy. In addition, US President Trump plans to make a "major statement" on the Russian issue this week [3] Precious Metals Spot and Futures Prices - SHFE gold main continuous contract was 780.4 yuan per gram, down 1 yuan, or - 0.13%; SGX gold TD was 776.13 yuan per gram, down 1.33 yuan, or - 0.17%; CME gold main contract was $3330.5 per ounce, down $21.6, or - 0.64%. SHFE silver main continuous contract was 9225 yuan per kilogram, up 18 yuan, or 0.2%; SGX silver TD was 9184 yuan per kilogram, up 12 yuan, or 0.13%; CME silver main contract was $37.985 per ounce, down $0.425, or - 1.11%. SHFE - TD gold was 4.27 yuan per gram, up 0.33 yuan, or 8.38%; SHFE - TD silver was 41 yuan per kilogram, up 6 yuan, or 191.67%. CME gold - silver ratio was 87.6793, up 0.4078, or 0.47% [5] Inventory and Holdings - SHFE gold inventory was 28872 kilograms, up 15 kilograms, or 0.05%; CME gold inventory was 1143.012 tons, unchanged; SHFE gold holdings were 198270 lots, up 7187 lots, or 3.76%; SPDR gold holdings were 947.64 tons, unchanged. SHFE silver inventory was 1222.959 tons, down 1.023 tons, or - 0.08%; CME silver inventory was 15447.1139 tons, up 0.3878 tons, or 0%; SGX silver inventory was 1327.23 tons, up 7.335 tons, or 0.56%; SHFE silver holdings were 450115 lots, up 2020 lots, or 0.45%; SLV silver holdings were 14856.023289 tons, down 110.213 tons, or - 0.74% [11] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index was 98.6303, up 0.5171, or 0.53%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1858, up 0.0139, or 0.19%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44459.65 points, up 88.14 points, or 0.2%; WTI crude oil spot was $66.98 per barrel, down $1.47, or - 2.15%; LmeS copper 03 was $9643.5 per ton, down $19.5, or - 0.2%. The 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.43%, unchanged; the 10Y US real interest rate was 2.09%, up 0.05, or 2.45%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was 0.53%, unchanged [16][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, affected by macro - factors, chemical products generally declined. PE has a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectation, with its spot performance being weak recently but fundamentals expected to be better. If the current demand growth rate is maintained, the PE supply - demand structure is expected to be in a tight - balance state. The month - spread has changed from back to contango, and pressure on L09 is expected to be relieved when the PE spot shows positive feedback [3] - There are both positive and negative factors for PE. Positive factors include some full - density device conversions and potential import reduction from Iran due to conflicts. Negative factors are the planned commissioning of multiple HDPE devices in the middle of the year and weak spot prices [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Prediction and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for polyethylene is 7100 - 7400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.32% and a historical percentile of 21.7% over 3 years [2] 3.2 Hedging Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for inventory management, it is recommended to short L2509 plastic futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7250 - 7300 to prevent inventory depreciation. Also, sell L2509C7300 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2] 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When procurement inventory is low and aiming to lock in costs, buy L2509 plastic futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 7100 - 7150 to prevent price increases. Sell L2509P7100 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 40 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2] 3.3 Market Data Table 3.3.1 Futures Prices and Spreads - On July 15, 2025, the plastic main basis was 14 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 58 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 14 yuan/ton. The L01, L05, and L09 contracts were 7239, 7214, and 7221 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 49, - 44, and - 63 yuan/ton and weekly changes of 14, 14, and - 24 yuan/ton [6][8] 3.3.2 Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - On July 15, 2025, spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7150, 7290, and 7270 yuan/ton respectively. The East - North and East - South regional spreads were 140 and 20 yuan/ton with daily changes of 30 and 30 yuan/ton and weekly changes of - 10 and - 30 yuan/ton [8] 3.3.3 Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - On July 15, 2025, the spreads between HDPE film and LLDPE film, HDPE hollow and LLDPE film, etc. showed various changes compared to previous days and weeks [8] 3.3.4 Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - On July 15, 2025, the Brent crude oil price was 69 dollars/barrel, the US ethane price was 0.245 dollars/gallon, and there were different profit situations for oil - based, coal - based, and other PE production methods [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the elimination of backward production capacity and entering the de - stocking process. The supply pressure will be continuously released with the implementation of production plans in Southwest China during the wet season. The downstream demand support is expected to strengthen, but inventory remains at a historical high. Overall, the price will show a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of placing long orders for industrial silicon at low prices [4]. - **Polysilicon**: In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is in a stage where fundamental logic and "anti - involution" logic alternate. Fundamentally, the expected reduction in electricity prices and increased profits may boost production capacity. However, demand growth is limited, and high inventory pressure persists. If effective industry integration or coordinated production reduction measures are implemented, it may reverse the current situation. It is recommended to focus on the positive spread opportunity between PS2509 - PS2511 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon **Futures Data** - The industrial silicon futures main contract shows a wide - range oscillation, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 34.5%, a daily decline of 0.19%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of current volatility of 96.3%. The main contract's closing price was 8785 yuan/ton, with a 1.04% increase; trading volume was 1,416,898 lots, down 3.87%; and open interest was 396,653 lots, down 1.55% [2][12]. - The SI09 - 11 spread was 90 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SI11 - 12 spread was - 290 yuan/ton, down 9.43% [14]. **Spot Data** - Spot prices of industrial silicon in various regions have increased, such as the East China 553 at 9150 yuan/ton, up 1.67%, and the East China 421 at 9500 yuan/ton, up 2.15%. The East China 553 basis was 365 yuan/ton, up 19.67%, and the East China 421 basis was 715 yuan/ton, up 18.18%. The East China 421 - 553 spread was 350 yuan/ton, up 16.67% [16]. **Basis and Warehouse Receipts** - The total industrial silicon warehouse receipts were 50,258 lots, up 29.69%. Warehouse receipts in various delivery warehouses showed different changes, such as a 6.59% increase in the Tianjin delivery warehouse to 10.1 million tons [22][23]. Polysilicon **Futures Data** - The polysilicon futures main contract also shows a wide - range oscillation, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 44.05%, a daily decline of 0.94%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of current volatility of 82.57%. The main contract's closing price was 42,470 yuan/ton, with a 1.69% increase; trading volume was 565,746 lots, up 20.29%; and open interest was 69,821 lots, down 10.86% [2][25]. - The PS08 - 09 spread was 350 yuan/ton, up 9.38%; the PS08 - 11 spread was 1530 yuan/ton, down 5.56%; the PS09 - 11 spread was 1180 yuan/ton, down 9.23%; the PS11 - 12 spread was - 2270 yuan/ton, down 5.34% [27]. **Spot Data** - Spot prices of polysilicon showed little change. For example, the N - type polysilicon price index remained at 43.45 yuan/kg, and the particle silicon price decreased by 1.15% to 43 yuan/kg [32]. **Basis and Warehouse Receipts Data** - The polysilicon main contract basis was 980 yuan/ton, down 41.84%; the PS2509 contract basis was 1330 yuan/ton, down 33.7%; the PS2511 contract basis was 2510 yuan/ton, down 24.05%. Warehouse receipts in various regions remained unchanged [39][41].

张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 尿素套保策略表 尿素产业风险管理日报 2025/07/15 尿素价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 1650-1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | 甲醇 | 2200-2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source： 南华研究 【利空解读】 受国内政策压制，协会要求工厂低价销售尿素，给现货情绪带来负面影响。 . 免責声明 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but short - term fluctuations will intensify. It is recommended to control positions and maintain the idea of buying on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals market fluctuated sharply. Silver rose and then fell, platinum declined significantly, and palladium had a wide trading range. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields rose, the US stock market fluctuated, Bitcoin rose and then fell, crude oil prices dropped, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals Index fluctuated. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3352.1 per ounce, down 0.35%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $38.41 per ounce, down 1.4%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was 781.4 yuan/gram, up 1.06%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was 9207 yuan/kg, up 2.11% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 94.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 5.2%. In September, the probability of unchanged rates is 36.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 60%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 3.2%. In October, the probability of unchanged rates is 14.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 46.1%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 37.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 1.9% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, the daily holdings of SPDR Gold ETF remained at 947.64 tons; the holdings of iShares Silver ETF increased by 207.72 tons to 14966.24 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 79.6 tons to 1224 tons daily; as of the week ending July 4, SGX silver inventory decreased by 3.3 tons to 1319.9 tons weekly [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week, the focus in terms of data is on the US CPI data on Tuesday evening. In terms of events, domestically, at 10:00 on Tuesday, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the economic performance in the first half of 2025. Overseas, at 14:45 on Tuesday, 2025 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins will give a speech; at 21:45, Fed Governor Bowman will give a welcome speech at a Fed - hosted conference. At 00:45 on Wednesday, Fed Governor Barr will speak at a Fed - hosted conference; at 02:45, 2025 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins will give a speech; at 04:00, Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak. At 02:00 on Thursday, the Fed will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions; at 05:30, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak on the US economy and monetary policy. In addition, US President Trump plans to make a "major statement" on the Russian issue this week [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Price and Inventory Data - Precious metals futures and spot price table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various precious metals contracts such as SHFE gold, SGX gold TD, CME gold, etc. [6]. - Inventory and position table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as the holdings of SPDR gold and SLV silver ETFs [15][16]. 3.5 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [23].

Core Points - The document outlines the internal audit management system of Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd, aiming to standardize internal audit practices and enhance internal control and corporate governance [1][8] - It defines the roles and responsibilities of the audit department, audit personnel, and the audit committee, ensuring independence and objectivity in the audit process [1][2][3] Group 1: Internal Audit Definition and Scope - Internal audit refers to the independent, objective evaluation and supervision of the company's internal control and governance processes [1] - The internal audit management system applies to the company's headquarters, branches, and subsidiaries [1] Group 2: Audit Department Structure - The audit committee is established under the board of directors, and the internal audit department reports to this committee [4] - The audit department must be staffed with qualified personnel possessing the necessary skills and knowledge [4] Group 3: Responsibilities and Authority of Audit Personnel - Audit personnel must adhere to professional ethics and maintain confidentiality regarding the information obtained during audits [2][3] - They have the authority to review and assess the legality, reasonableness, and effectiveness of financial and operational activities [3][4] Group 4: Audit Procedures - The internal audit process includes preparation, implementation, reporting, and follow-up audits [5][6] - Audit reports must be objective and factual, and feedback from audited departments should be considered before finalizing reports [6][7] Group 5: Legal Responsibilities - The company can take action against departments or individuals obstructing the audit process, including disciplinary measures [29] - Audit personnel who abuse their power or disclose confidential information may face legal consequences [30][31] Group 6: Miscellaneous Provisions - The management system will be revised and interpreted by the board of directors, and it will take effect upon approval [32][34] - Any issues not covered by this management system will be governed by relevant laws and company regulations [32][33]

北京金诚同达律师事务所 关于 南华期货股份有限公司 二○二五年第二次临时股东大会 之 法律意见书 北京市建国门外大街1号国贸大厦A座十层 100004 电话：010—57068585 传真：010—85150267 金诚同达律师事务所 法律意见书 北京金诚同达律师事务所 关于南华期货股份有限公司 二○二五年第二次临时股东大会之 法律意见书 金证法意2025字 0714 第 0679 号 致：南华期货股份有限公司 （以下简称"《股东会规则》"） 受南华期货股份有限公司（以下简称"南华期货"或"公司"）聘请和北京 金诚同达律师事务所（以下简称"本所"）委派，本所律师出席南华期货二○二 五年第二次临时股东大会并对会议的相关事项出具法律意见书。 本所律师根据《中华人民共和国公司法》 （以下简称"《公司法》"）、 《中华人 民共和国证券法》 《上市公司股东会规则》 《律师事 务所从事证券法律业务管理办法》《律师事务所证券法律业务执业规则（试行）》 等有关法律、法规和规范性文件的要求以及《南华期货股份有限公司章程》（以 下简称"《公司章程》 "）的规定，对本次股东大会的召集、召开程序，出席会议 人员的资格、召集人资格，会 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a slight increase with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index experienced minor declines. The North Exchange 50 Index increased by 0.55%. Overall trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.48 trillion, down by over 200 billion from the previous day, indicating a temporary market consolidation [1][3]. Sector Performance - Despite minor index fluctuations, over 3,000 stocks saw gains, suggesting a generally positive performance among individual stocks. The robot concept sector stood out, with humanoid robots and reducers experiencing significant gains, driven by market optimism regarding the integration of AI and manufacturing, supported by government policies [3]. - The precious metals sector also performed well, with Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit and Zhongjin Gold reaching near the limit during trading. This is attributed to high international gold prices and increased investor interest due to inflation expectations [3]. - The paper industry saw a sudden surge in the afternoon, with companies like Forest Packaging and Yibin Paper hitting the daily limit, likely due to anticipated price increases and low industry inventory levels [3]. - The electric power sector experienced high volatility, with companies like Jiantou Energy and Yunnan Energy hitting the daily limit, driven by rising electricity demand as temperatures increase [4]. Market Sentiment - The market reflects a dual sentiment: investors are seeking sectors with policy support and strong earnings expectations, such as robotics and electricity, while gradually withdrawing from previously high-flying sectors lacking earnings support, such as the financial sector and gaming stocks [4][5].