超配（维持） 食品饮料行业双周报（2025/02/28-2025/03/13） 行 食品饮料行业 2025 年 3 月 14 日 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 两会积极定调，关注需求复苏进程 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 研 究 业 周 报 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 资料来源：同花顺,东莞证券研究所 相关报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 行情回顾：2025年2月28日-2025年3月13日，SW食品饮料行业指数整体 上涨1.62%，板块涨幅位居申万一级行业第十位，跑赢同期沪深300指数 约3.05个百分点。 ◼ 行业周观点：两会积极定调，关注需求复苏进程。今年政府工作报告提 出，要大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求。此外，国 务院新闻办公室将于2025年3月17日下午3时举行新闻发布会，请有关 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating strong growth potential and confidence in its market position [7]. Core Insights - The company has successfully crossed the 10 billion yuan revenue mark in 2023, with a strong growth momentum reflected in its performance in the first three quarters of 2024, where revenue and net profit increased by 18.85% and 17.08% respectively [15][25]. - The company is well-positioned in the second-high-end liquor market, with its core product, the Guo Yuan series, strategically targeting the 300-600 yuan price range, which has shown strong competitive advantages [4][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Strong Growth Momentum - The company is among the top ten listed liquor companies in China, focusing on the "Yuan" culture in its marketing strategy, which enhances brand recognition [4][15]. - The Jiangsu liquor market is robust, with the company benefiting from a favorable consumption environment and a significant market share alongside its competitors [4][32]. 2. Market Structure and Potential - Jiangsu's liquor market is the second largest in China, with a strong consumption atmosphere and high demand for premium products [32][33]. - The company has established a strong presence in key markets such as Nanjing and Huai'an, with significant growth potential in the Suzhong and Susou regions [4][37]. 3. Product Strategy and Optimization - The company has effectively positioned its core products in the next-high-end price segment, with a focus on expanding its product range to meet consumer demand [4][46]. - The introduction of the Guo Yuan V series and other high-end products is expected to drive future growth, with a clear strategy for market penetration and brand development [49][53]. 4. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth from 116.53 billion yuan in 2024 to 141.77 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit expected to rise from 34.71 billion yuan to 41.33 billion yuan over the same period [6][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 2.78 yuan in 2024 to 3.32 yuan in 2026, reflecting a strong financial outlook [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, suggesting a focus on optional consumption and service consumption price performance, particularly in the context of the recent recovery in trading sentiment [1][7]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is currently experiencing a gradual decline in its economic climate, with expectations hinging on actual consumption performance validating recent policy implementations [1][7]. - The report highlights that the price stability of premium liquor, particularly the slight recovery in the price of Feitian Moutai, is positively impacting channel profits and asset expectations [1][8]. - The report anticipates that the upcoming performance period will primarily focus on clearing inventory, with expectations for improved feedback from channels and liquor companies as the spring festival approaches [8]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector's PE-TTM is approximately 20X, positioned at the 13th percentile over the past three years and the 8th percentile over the past five years, indicating it is still in a cyclical bottom range [2][8]. - The report suggests focusing on cyclical stocks with potential catalysts, including national brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, which are expected to benefit from robust consumer demand [2][8]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is showing signs of recovery, with categories like sugar-free tea, energy drinks, and protein drinks experiencing strong growth [3][9]. - East Peak's annual report indicates a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.1% [3][9]. Snacks - The snack industry continues to thrive, with new channels and product innovations driving growth, despite market expectations of a slowdown in Q1 [10]. - The report highlights the potential for high growth in 2025 through category exploration and channel expansion, recommending companies like Weilang and Yanjin Puzhou [10]. Restaurant Chains - The restaurant chain sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with the seasoning segment performing relatively well due to the trend of restaurant chain standardization [11]. - The report suggests that as restaurant consumption policies strengthen, related sectors may see significant performance elasticity and valuation improvements, recommending stocks like Angel Yeast and Qingdao Beer [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry, specifically highlighting the potential in the liquor sector due to the ongoing digital transformation [1]. Core Insights - The report outlines the evolution of online liquor sales in China, indicating a significant growth trajectory with a 56.4% year-on-year increase in online liquor sales, reaching over 120 billion yuan in 2023 [3][23]. - The shift towards online sales is driven by several factors, including the pressure on traditional sales channels, the influence of substantial subsidies from e-commerce platforms, and the preferences of younger consumer demographics [3][34]. - The report anticipates a long-term trend towards the standardization of online liquor sales, with the potential rise of professional operational agencies to assist liquor manufacturers in navigating the digital landscape [3][44]. Summary by Sections Review of Online Liquor Development - The report identifies four key phases in the development of online liquor sales from 2000 to the present, highlighting the gradual maturation of the e-commerce landscape and the increasing integration of liquor brands into online platforms [3][4]. Reasons for Growth - The report attributes the growth of online liquor sales to the maturity of logistics and payment systems, the normalization of e-commerce subsidies, and the changing preferences of younger consumers who are more inclined to shop online [3][34][37]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the online penetration rate for liquor is currently at 12%, indicating substantial room for growth compared to the overall consumer goods market, which has a penetration rate of approximately 30% [3][44]. - It also notes that the rise of high-potential channels like Douyin (TikTok) presents significant opportunities for further expansion in online liquor sales [3][44]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines of investment: high-end liquor brands such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, mid-range brands like Shanxi Fenjiu, and local brands positioned in expanding price segments [3][44].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is maintained as "Outperform" [3] Core Insights - The heavy holding ratio in the food and beverage sector has decreased, while the overweight ratio has slightly increased. As of Q4 2024, the total market value of heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector is 309.25 billion, down by 41.40 billion from the previous quarter, with a heavy holding ratio of 4.56%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points [1][12][14] - The white liquor sector has seen a significant decline in heavy holding ratios, while the majority of the consumer goods sector has increased. The heavy holding ratio for the white liquor sector is 3.95%, down by 0.65 percentage points, while other sub-sectors like beverage and dairy have shown increases [1][15][17] Summary by Sections Heavy Holding Ratios - In Q4 2024, the food and beverage sector's heavy holding ratio ranks third among 31 primary industries, below the five-year average of 7.27%, indicating potential for growth [1][12] - The heavy holding market value in the food and beverage sector accounts for 11.73% of the total heavy holdings, a decrease of 0.52 percentage points [14] Sub-sector Performance - The white liquor sector's heavy holding ratio has decreased significantly, while the majority of consumer goods sub-sectors have increased. The beverage and dairy sub-sector's heavy holding ratio rose to 0.28%, while non-white liquor and snack food sectors also saw slight increases [15][17][18] - The heavy holding ratio for the food processing sub-sector has continued to decline, now at 1.30%, the lowest among all sub-sectors [18] Individual Stock Analysis - The top ten heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector are dominated by white liquor stocks, with seven out of ten positions held by white liquor companies. The overall heavy holding ratio for these top ten stocks is 4.22%, down by 0.44 percentage points [2][28] - The leading companies in heavy holdings include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with Kweichow Moutai maintaining the highest heavy holding ratio at 2.05% [28][30] Investment Recommendations - Despite the overall weak recovery in consumption, it is anticipated that policies to boost consumption will be strengthened in 2025, presenting opportunities in the food and beverage sector. Key areas to focus on include: - White liquor: Expecting demand recovery to alleviate inventory pressure, particularly in mid-range and mass-market segments [3] - Beer: Cost reductions are expected to enhance profitability, with a recovery in demand for mid-to-high-end beers [3] - Seasoning products: Continued cost advantages and health-oriented demand are seen as growth drivers [3] - Dairy products: Approaching a cost inflection point, with price wars expected to ease [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company focuses on expanding its market share in the domestic market while strategically penetrating external markets, particularly emphasizing the development of its V series products [1][2] - The company aims to enhance its product structure and strengthen its brand influence, particularly in the 100-500 RMB price range, while also pushing for growth in the 500-800 RMB segment [1][2] Summary by Sections Domestic Market Strategy - The company is concentrating on improving market share in various cities within the province, with organizational restructuring to enhance brand operations [2] - The company plans to focus on core price segments based on regional differences to optimize market penetration [2] External Market Expansion - The company is leveraging its core product, the "Four Open," to expand into surrounding regions and integrate operations in the Yangtze River Delta [2] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11,656 million RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 15.4%, and net profit of 3,583 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 14.3% [5] - The adjusted EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 2.87, 3.14, and 3.47 RMB respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 17, and 15 [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company focuses on expanding its market share in the domestic market while strategically growing its presence in external markets. It aims to enhance its product offerings in the 100-500 RMB price range and increase the influence of its V3 product in the 600 RMB segment, targeting a 30% sales growth for V3 in 2024 [1][2] - The company has shown strong sales performance, with V6 hosting nearly 3,000 events and achieving over 100 million RMB in sales, representing a 72% growth [1] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with adjusted EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 being 2.87, 3.14, and 3.47 RMB respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 18, 17, and 15 times [3] Summary by Sections Product Strategy - The company is focusing on the 100-500 RMB price range in Jiangsu province, maintaining a leading market share and planning to expand its product lines such as淡雅, 对开, and 四开 [1] - It is also working on enhancing its presence in the 500-800 RMB price range, particularly for the V3 product [1] Regional Strategy - The company is refining its operations within the province to reduce market share disparities among cities and is implementing a structural reform to improve brand operations [2] - For external markets, it is leveraging its core product 四开 to penetrate surrounding areas and strengthen partnerships, with stable growth observed in Shandong, Anhui, and Zhejiang [2] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 11,656 million RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 15.4%, and a net profit of 3,583 million RMB, reflecting a 14.3% increase [5] - The diluted EPS is expected to grow from 2.50 RMB in 2023 to 3.47 RMB in 2026, indicating a positive outlook for profitability [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong sales performance during the 2025 Spring Festival, with positive feedback from channels indicating a robust growth trajectory for the year. The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate that exceeds the industry average [8] - The company aims to enhance its market share both domestically and in external markets, with a focus on strategic channel development and product positioning. The goal for 2025 is to achieve revenue growth in external markets that surpasses domestic growth [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from a stable growth in revenue and profit, with a clear growth path supported by effective marketing strategies and improved operational efficiency [8] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to grow from 10,100 million RMB in 2023 to 15,413 million RMB in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.05%, 17.15%, 12.32%, and 15.97% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 3,136 million RMB in 2023 to 4,803 million RMB in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 25.30%, 15.03%, 11.83%, and 19.05% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from 2.50 RMB in 2023 to 3.85 RMB in 2026, reflecting a positive trend in earnings per share [1] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 50.23 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 62,626.77 million RMB [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.09 for 2023, which is expected to decrease to 13.04 by 2026, indicating a potentially attractive valuation over time [1][5] Operational Insights - The company has successfully maintained a healthy inventory level and has effectively managed channel pricing to stabilize profits. This strategic approach is expected to enhance revenue visibility for the year [8] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and pricing strategy to capture market share across different price segments, particularly in the domestic market [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong sales performance during the 2025 Spring Festival, with positive feedback from channels indicating a robust growth trajectory for the year. The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate that exceeds the industry average [8] - The company aims to enhance its market share both domestically and in external markets, with a focus on strategic channel development and product positioning. The goal for 2025 is to achieve a revenue growth rate in external markets that surpasses that of domestic markets [8] - The company is expected to maintain stable revenue and profit growth, with a clear growth path driven by market share gains and effective cost management strategies [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 10,100 million RMB in 2023 to 15,413 million RMB in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.05%, 17.15%, 12.32%, and 15.97% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 3,136 million RMB in 2023 to 4,803 million RMB in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 25.30%, 15.03%, 11.83%, and 19.05% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from 2.50 RMB in 2024 to 3.85 RMB in 2026, reflecting a positive trend in earnings per share [1] Market Positioning - The company is focusing on enhancing its market presence through a structured approach to channel development, targeting key markets and price segments to improve its competitive positioning [8] - The company has successfully expanded its market share in both domestic and external markets, with a strategic emphasis on optimizing its product mix and pricing strategy [8]

Summary of Jinshiyuan Company Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jinshiyuan - **Industry**: Baijiu (Chinese liquor) Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - During the Spring Festival, Jinshiyuan's high-end product V3, priced between 500-600 RMB, showed excellent sales performance in cities like Huai'an, Nanjing, and Suzhou, indicating a significant upward trend. This success is attributed to a series of reform measures rather than competitors' mistakes or market space availability [3][4] Organizational Reforms - Since 2022, under Chairman Lv Xin's leadership, Jinshiyuan has restructured its management from a regional division to a departmental division, including Microchip, International, Financial, and Efficient Sales departments. This focused brand operation has effectively driven stable growth in the Guoyuan product series [4][5] Marketing Innovations - Jinshiyuan has innovated its marketing model by forming strategic alliances through group purchasing, particularly in Yangzhou, which stabilizes sales and enhances dealer cooperation. This model is especially effective for high-end and new products in emerging markets [4][6] Human Resource Strategies - The company has accelerated the promotion of leadership and external recruitment since 2022, increasing sales personnel from approximately 800-1,000 to around 1,500. This investment in human resources has significantly improved overall operational capabilities [7][9] Pricing Strategy - Jinshiyuan employs a gradual price increase strategy to maintain price stability for its main products, such as Guoan 4K, which has remained stable since 2022. This approach has bolstered dealer confidence and consumer trust, avoiding adverse effects from price fluctuations [10][11] High-End Strategy Progress - The high-end strategy is showing initial success, with the V3 product becoming a mainstream choice for business consumption in certain regions of Jiangsu. This success provides a strong foundation for extending more high-end product lines [12] Market Conditions in Jiangsu - Jiangsu's market is crucial for baijiu companies due to its large scale and stable structure. Jinshiyuan's solid foundation in this market allows it to focus on nurturing new and high-end products [13] Prospects in Out-of-Province Markets - Jinshiyuan is expected to perform well in out-of-province markets by 2025, having clarified its strategy and improved brand recognition among dealers. The company has laid a solid foundation for expansion, aiming for significant breakthroughs in the coming years [14][15] Brand Promotion and Development - The company tailors its promotional strategies based on product characteristics, ensuring the survival of dealers while enhancing brand image through flexible marketing tactics [16][17] Strategic Direction - Jinshiyuan's strategic direction is now clear, with sufficient reserves in organization and personnel training to support its expansion beyond Jiangsu. The focus on high-end product cultivation and investment is expected to yield significant results in 2025 [18] Investment Recommendation - The company is viewed as a strong investment opportunity due to its stable fundamentals and new growth logic in high-end products and out-of-province expansion. With a current valuation of approximately 15 times earnings, it is recommended for both absolute and relative returns in the baijiu sector [19]