Macro Commentary - The US economy shows signs of slowing down, with significant declines in retail and manufacturing output due to tariff impacts, particularly affecting durable goods like automobiles and electronics [2] - Despite the slowdown, unemployment claims remain stable, indicating that the service sector is less affected, and employment in this sector remains robust [2] - Inflation is expected to rebound temporarily from May to August, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain interest rates until September, when a potential rate cut may occur [2] Industry Commentary - The Chinese pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a strong trend in innovative drug exports, with several significant business development transactions occurring despite recent tariff tensions [5][6] - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has risen by 14.9% since early 2025, although it has underperformed compared to the broader MSCI China Index [5] - The US innovative drug prices are unlikely to decrease in the short term due to recent executive orders, but long-term pressures on healthcare spending are anticipated [7] Company Initiation - The report covers Angelalign Technology (6699 HK), a leading provider of invisible orthodontic solutions in China, which has maintained a market share of 42% in the domestic market [9][10] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.8% from 2019 to 2024, with a projected CAGR of 18.0% from 2024 to 2027 [9] - Angelalign is expanding internationally, with a goal to cover over 50 countries and achieve significant revenue growth from overseas markets, which is expected to account for 30% of total revenue by 2024 [11][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The social services sector has shown a decline in performance, with the A-share social service index underperforming the market, ranking 27th among 31 primary industries [8] - The tea beverage industry is experiencing significant growth, with major players like Mixue Ice City and Gu Ming rapidly expanding their store numbers [44][48] - The beauty sector is witnessing a rise in domestic brands, with strong performance during the 618 shopping festival, indicating a shift towards local products [56][57] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Trend in Toy Industry - In April 2025, online sales in the toy and animation category reached 1.314 billion yuan, marking a 48% year-on-year increase [16] - The blind box and ACG peripheral products showed strong growth, with sales increasing by 105% and 116% respectively [17][21] 2. Tea Beverage Industry - As of April 2025, there are 486,000 tea beverage stores in operation, with a net increase of 7,600 stores in the first four months of the year [44][48] - Major brands like Mixue Ice City and Gu Ming have significantly increased their store counts, with Mixue reaching 38,337 stores [51] 3. Education Sector - Youdao reported a revenue of 1.3 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 6.72% year-on-year, but achieved a record operating profit of 104 million yuan, up 247.7% [52][54] - The company is focusing on AI-driven educational services, which have shown promising growth [52] 4. Beauty Industry - The 618 shopping festival saw a strong performance from domestic beauty brands, with significant sales growth compared to previous years [56][57] - The hair care market is experiencing steady growth, particularly through online channels, with Douyin becoming a major contributor [56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [1] Core Insights - The 2025 618 shopping festival has been advanced, with discounts shifting from "spend 300 get 50 off" to direct reductions, enhancing consumer shopping experience and reducing the need for bundling [4][9] - The performance of domestic beauty brands has been strong, with notable sales figures during the initial live stream of the festival, achieving a GMV of 25-35 billion yuan [4][11] - The report highlights the rapid growth of brands like Zhenjia in the home cleaning sector and recommends focusing on companies like Juzi Biological, Shangmei Shares, and others during the 618 festival [4][13] Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The 2025 618 shopping festival started on May 13, 2025, approximately 7 to 10 days earlier than in 2024, extending the event duration to 35-40 days, marking the longest period in history [4][9] - Major platforms such as Taotian, JD, Pinduoduo, and Douyin launched their promotions simultaneously, indicating increased competition [4][9] Market Performance - From May 12 to May 16, 2025, the Shenwan retail index increased by 1.72%, while the beauty care sector rose by 3.08% [14] - Year-to-date performance shows the Shenwan retail index up by 8.93%, outperforming other indices like the Shanghai Composite [14][21] Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for various companies, with several brands like Perleya and Juzi Biological receiving "Buy" ratings based on their projected earnings growth [17][18]

Market Performance - The market rebounded last week, with the China Securities Xinhua National Brand Index rising by 0.94% to 1666.03 points [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.76%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.52%, the ChiNext Index by 1.38%, and the CSI 300 Index by 1.12% [1] Strong Stock Performances - Notable strong performers in the brand index included BGI Genomics, which rose by 17.27%, and Yiling Pharmaceutical, which increased by 9.81% [1] - Other significant gainers included Stone Technology and Marubi Biological, which rose by 7.18% and 6.79%, respectively [1] Year-to-Date Stock Gains - Since the beginning of 2025, Marubi Biological has surged by 60.82%, leading the gains, followed by Shanghai Jahwa with a 46.72% increase and BGI Genomics with a 34.45% rise [2] - Other stocks with notable increases include Anji Technology, Xintai, and Weir Shares, each rising over 20% [2] Market Outlook - Institutions expect the market to refocus on domestic economic fundamentals, with a positive policy response anticipated [2][3] - The current market is viewed as being in a high cost-performance range, with significant policy support expected to stabilize the economy and market [2] Economic Data Focus - Attention is drawn to upcoming economic data, particularly export performance and the sustainability of the export supply chain recovery [3] - The prevailing market conditions are supported by policy measures and liquidity easing, which are expected to bolster the stability of the domestic economy and capital markets [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies within the discretionary consumption sector, indicating a positive outlook for their performance relative to the market [1][3][5]. Core Insights - The pet and U.S. hotel sectors have shown the best performance this week, with valuations in most sectors still below the average of the past five years [1][4][13]. - The report highlights that the average increase for leading companies in the pet sector was 9.1%, driven by favorable trade negotiations and the commencement of the 618 pre-sale [4][15][17]. - Valuation analysis indicates that most sub-sectors are trading below their historical averages, suggesting potential investment opportunities [5][9][19]. Sector Performance Review - Weekly performance rankings: Pet > U.S. Hotel > Credit Card > Cosmetics > Gambling > Sportswear > Luxury Goods > Snacks [7][14]. - Monthly performance rankings: Pet > U.S. Hotel > Gambling > Cosmetics > Sportswear > Credit Card > Luxury Goods > Snacks [14]. - Year-to-date (YTD) performance rankings: Pet > Luxury Goods > Cosmetics > Snacks > Credit Card > U.S. Hotel > Sportswear > Gambling [14]. Valuation Analysis - As of May 16, 2025, the expected P/E ratios for various sectors are as follows: - Sportswear: 15.6x (77% of 5-year average) - Luxury Goods: 18.4x (52% of 5-year average) - Gambling: 14.2x (23% of 5-year average) - Cosmetics: 36.8x (91% of 5-year average) - Pet: 50x (51% of 5-year average) - Snacks: 24.3x (37% of 5-year average) - U.S. Hotel: 29.4x (18% of 5-year average) - Credit Card: 32x (61% of 5-year average) [5][9][18][19].

Core Insights - Tmall's 618 shopping festival has seen a strong start in the beauty sector, with several brands achieving significant sales milestones within minutes of the sale beginning [1] Sales Performance - Within the first 10 minutes, Proya achieved over 100 million yuan in sales - By 20 minutes, Lancôme also surpassed 100 million yuan - Other brands like L'Oréal and Shiseido followed suit, reaching the 100 million yuan mark by 30 minutes, with Estee Lauder and CPB hitting the same target by 45 minutes [1] Product Highlights - In the first 30 minutes, 32 products, including the Collagen Stick 2.0, SK-II Facial Treatment Essence, Shiseido AGE Cream, La Mer Essence Water, and Proya Double Anti-oxidation Essence, each exceeded 10 million yuan in sales [1] Discounts and Promotions - This year's Tmall 618 features an 85% discount, with additional large consumer coupons and category coupons, offering greater discounts and lower thresholds compared to previous years - For example, the beauty surprise coupon has been adjusted from a minimum spend of 1000 yuan last year to 900 yuan this year, with the highest discount reaching 700 yuan when combined with other offers [1] Consumer Behavior - The combination of multiple discounts has led to a concentrated surge in consumer spending in the beauty category [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the launch of the "Initiative for Promoting Brand Value Construction" by the China Fragrance, Flavor and Cosmetic Industry Association, emphasizing a strategic shift in the Chinese fragrance and cosmetics industry from "traffic competition" to "value-driven" approaches, aiming to enhance brand value and quality [2][4][11]. Group 1: Initiative Overview - The initiative is centered around five key action paths: innovation-driven, quality-focused, scientific management, integrity in operations, and collaborative progress, addressing industry pain points [4][7]. - The initiative aims to transform "Chinese manufacturing" into "Chinese brands," providing a clear direction for companies in brand value construction [4][11]. Group 2: Action Paths - **Innovation-Driven**: Companies are encouraged to increase R&D investment to overcome technological bottlenecks and integrate cultural elements into brand identity [4][5]. - **Quality-Focused**: Emphasizes the importance of a robust quality management system throughout the supply chain to ensure product safety and sustainability [4][6]. - **Scientific Management**: Proposes the use of a "brand value assessment model" to diagnose brand development and optimize strategies based on data-driven insights [5][8]. - **Integrity in Operations**: Calls for transparency and honesty in brand communication to combat false advertising and promote a fair market environment [6][7]. - **Collaborative Progress**: Encourages learning from global brand management practices and enhancing international competitiveness through cross-industry collaboration [7][11]. Group 3: Brand Value Assessment System - The "China Fragrance and Cosmetic Brand Value Assessment System" was introduced as a tool to quantify brand value through measurable indicators, aiding in strategic implementation [8][11]. - The assessment system combines quantitative and qualitative evaluations, focusing on factors like profit, marketing investment, and R&D investment, with over 18 sub-dimensions for comprehensive brand strength measurement [8][11]. Group 4: Industry Implications - The simultaneous release of the initiative and the assessment system signifies the beginning of a "brand value awakening" era in the Chinese fragrance and cosmetics industry, providing a dual approach of theory and practice for high-quality development [11]. - As the brand value concept deepens, Chinese fragrance and cosmetics companies are expected to transition from "follower" to "leader" in the global market [11].

Group 1 - The A-share cosmetics sector experienced a significant rise in the afternoon, with Huaye Fragrance hitting the daily limit up [1] - Furuida, Lafang Home, and Bawi Co. previously reached their daily limit, while Qingsong Co. surged over 10% [1] - Other companies such as Shanghai Jahwa, Proya, Jiaheng Home, Jinsong New Materials, and Beitaini also saw increases [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of domestic beauty brands, particularly Proya and Kefu Mei, during the Tmall pre-sale event and Li Jiaqi's live streaming session, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards local brands [1][4][5] - Proya and Kefu Mei ranked first and third respectively in the Tmall beauty pre-sale rankings, with Proya's Double Anti-Aging Essence being a top seller in Li Jiaqi's live stream [1][5][12] - The live streaming event saw significant sales, with Kefu Mei's collagen stick selling nearly 250,000 units and Proya's Double Anti-Aging Essence exceeding 100,000 units sold within the first hour [5][12][16] Group 2 - The collaboration between domestic beauty brands and Li Jiaqi has intensified, with at least 12 domestic beauty companies participating in the 618 event, resulting in a total of 87 product links [5][8] - International beauty brands still dominate the overall market, holding 70% of the Tmall pre-sale rankings, but they face challenges in maintaining growth in China [1][17] - The promotional strategies employed by both domestic and international brands include significant discounts and bundled offers, with domestic brands generally offering greater discounts compared to their international counterparts [25][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4][6]. Core Insights - The 618 promotional event has been advanced, with Tmall's pre-sale period shortened compared to the previous year's Double Eleven event. The first wave of Tmall's 618 sales runs from May 13 to May 26, 2025, with a pre-sale deposit payment phase from May 13 to May 16, and a final payment and early purchase phase from May 16 to May 26. This is a 7-day advance compared to last year's 618 event and a 4-day reduction compared to last year's Double Eleven pre-sale period [2][11]. - The promotional mechanisms have been simplified, with Tmall and JD.com eliminating cross-store discounts and increasing platform subsidies. Tmall's official discounts range from 15% to 50%, and the number of coupons issued to 88VIP members has increased significantly from 2 to 6 compared to last year [2][12]. - The first hour of sales in Li Jiaqi's live stream saw a GMV increase of over 10% year-on-year, with notable performances from domestic brands such as Proya and Kefu Mei [3][15]. Summary by Sections 1. 618 Promotional Event - The promotional event's schedule has been advanced, with Tmall's pre-sale period shortened compared to the previous year [2][11]. - JD.com has canceled the pre-heating period, maintaining the same sales period as last year [2][11]. 2. Li Jiaqi's Live Stream Sales Performance - The first hour of the "Explosive Beauty Festival" in Li Jiaqi's live stream saw a GMV increase of over 10% year-on-year, with multiple brand collaborations [3][15]. - Domestic brands such as Proya and Kefu Mei performed exceptionally well during the first day of sales [3][16]. 3. Tmall 618 Pre-sale Rankings - Proya ranked first in the beauty sales during the first four hours of Tmall's pre-sale, with Kefu Mei entering the top three [3][21]. - The rankings indicate a strong performance from domestic brands, with Proya maintaining its leading position and Kefu Mei rising three spots [3][21].