Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Retail enterprises are under continuous operational pressure, with a focus on high-prosperity quality companies [4][24] - The overall revenue of the retail industry decreased by 1.8% in 2024 and 13.3% in Q1 2025, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 20.6% and 21.3% respectively [4][24] - The jewelry sector faced revenue declines of 4.9% in 2024 and 25.9% in Q1 2025, with net profit declines of 17.7% and 18.8% respectively [4][33] - The beauty care sector showed a revenue increase of 5.3% in 2024 but a slight decline of 1.7% in Q1 2025, with net profit declines of 17.5% and 21.7% respectively [4][28] - The cross-border e-commerce sector experienced significant growth, with revenue increases of 31.9% in 2024 and 28.8% in Q1 2025, while net profit showed a decline of 4.6% and an increase of 4.9% respectively [4][38] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail industry index decreased by 1.72% in the week of April 28 to April 30, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [6][15] - The beauty products sector had the highest growth, with a weekly increase of 7.49% and a year-to-date increase of 12.66% [15][19] Industry Dynamics - The financial reports for 2024 and Q1 2025 indicate that retail enterprises are facing operational challenges, with a focus on high-prosperity sectors [4][24] - The jewelry sector is under pressure due to rising gold prices affecting consumer demand and operational challenges for weaker franchisees [4][33] - The beauty care sector remains relatively stable, with strong performance from differentiated beauty brands [4][28] Investment Recommendations - Focus on traditional retail companies that adapt to consumer trends, such as Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [7][43] - Highlight jewelry brands with differentiated product offerings, recommending brands like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [7][43] - Emphasize domestic beauty brands that are expanding into high-prosperity segments, recommending brands like Maogeping and Shangmei [7][44] - Target upstream medical beauty product manufacturers with strong profitability, recommending companies like Aimeike and Kedi [7][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 112.46 CNY [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected earnings in Q1, with significant growth from emerging brands [1]. - Revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected to be 10.778 billion CNY and 1.552 billion CNY, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 21% and 30% [6]. - The company is expected to continue expanding its brand portfolio and market share in various segments, including men's skincare and medical post-operative recovery [6]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 are 4.56 CNY, 5.36 CNY, and 6.06 CNY, respectively [2][7]. - The company's revenue is forecasted to grow from 8.905 billion CNY in 2023 to 15.577 billion CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.7% [2][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 69.9% in 2023 to 73.0% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [2][10]. Brand Performance - The main brand and the Cai Tang brand showed stable performance, while emerging brands like OR and Yuan Se Bo Ta experienced rapid growth, with revenue increases of 71.1% and 138.4%, respectively [6]. - Online sales channels grew by 23.7% in 2024, while offline channels saw a decline of 13.6% [6]. Market Position - The company has demonstrated resilience in a challenging consumer environment, maintaining strong performance across its brand matrix [6]. - The report highlights the company's ability to adapt and thrive despite market pressures, positioning it well for future growth [6].

Group 1 - Multiple popular stocks have been recommended by at least two brokerages, particularly those related to domestic consumption, such as Dongpeng Beverage and Kweichow Moutai [2] - Dongpeng Beverage is favored for its stable energy drink business and rapid growth in electrolyte drinks as the beverage season approaches [2] - Kweichow Moutai is highlighted for signs of improvement in the liquor industry and a reduction in channel leverage [2] Group 2 - The skincare and medical beauty sector is also seeing high interest, with stocks like Proya and Aimeike receiving recommendations due to market trends favoring domestic brands and new product launches [2] - Analysts expect the market to remain volatile in May, with some expressing optimism for a potential upward trend, suggesting that adjustments present good investment opportunities [2][4] Group 3 - The A-share market is currently valued near its average since 2010, with expectations of continued inflows of medium to long-term capital due to supportive policies [3] - Suggested asset allocation includes stable assets like high-dividend stocks and gold, as well as sectors focused on domestic consumption and technology [4] Group 4 - Analysts recommend focusing on three main lines in May: consumption, technology, and dividend stocks, with an emphasis on domestic technology and consumer sectors benefiting from policy support [6] - The market is expected to experience a structural recovery, with cautious optimism regarding the potential for core sectors to attract renewed investment focus post-earnings reports [6][8] Group 5 - The recommended investment strategy includes a "barbell" approach, balancing growth technology investments with stable dividend assets, reflecting the current market environment [9] - The focus on new technologies and industry themes, as well as the implementation of policies to boost domestic demand, is crucial for investment decisions in May [7]

Group 1 - The high-end beauty market is experiencing a stark contrast, with luxury brand La Prairie seeing a significant decline in sales, while affordable brands like Pechoin are thriving [1][2] - La Prairie's sales dropped by 17.5% year-on-year, marking the largest decline in five years, with limited sales on high-priced products [2] - In contrast, Beiersdorf's affordable brand Nivea achieved global sales of €5.6 billion, with popular products in the Chinese market [6] Group 2 - Consumers are increasingly prioritizing ingredient transparency and value over brand prestige, leading to a rise in demand for effective, affordable skincare products [8][11] - Domestic brands like Pechoin and Han Shu are performing exceptionally well, with Pechoin's online GMV expected to exceed 10 billion yuan in 2024 [9] - The shift in consumer behavior is reshaping the beauty industry, as effective products become more important than expensive branding [12]

Group 1 - The beauty industry in China is witnessing a shift in the top 10 revenue rankings, with Proya leading at 10.778 billion, marking a significant milestone as the first domestic beauty brand to surpass 10 billion in revenue [1][8] - The entry of Mao Geping into the top 5 and the drop of Shanghai Jahwa from the top 10 indicates a dynamic change in the competitive landscape [1][3] - The revenue threshold for entering the top 10 has increased to nearly 2.5 billion, reflecting a more competitive environment compared to previous years [1] Group 2 - The top five companies have experienced a turnover, with companies like Shiseido and Juzhibio showing over 30% growth, while others like Huaxi and Beitaini have faced declines or stagnant profits [3] - Proya's main brand revenue ceiling has been raised to 8.581 billion, with a notable gap of nearly 3 billion between it and the next highest brand [8] - Han Shu has achieved a significant milestone by surpassing 5 billion in revenue, reaching 5.591 billion with an impressive growth rate of 80.9% [8] Group 3 - Online sales channels are crucial for the success of domestic beauty brands, with Proya, Shiseido, and Water Sheep achieving over 90% of their revenue from online sales [14] - Despite the strong online performance, the offline sales channels have seen a decline, with companies like Mao Geping and Shiseido managing to achieve double-digit growth in offline sales [15][14] - The overall sales structure indicates a need for brands to balance their online and offline strategies to sustain growth [11] Group 4 - Research and development (R&D) investments among the top 10 companies have increased, with total R&D spending rising from 1.559 billion to 1.753 billion [19] - Companies like Huaxi and Beitaini are leading in R&D expenditures, with Huaxi investing 466 million, representing 8.68% of its total revenue [19][20] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with an emphasis on scientific innovation and new product development becoming essential for maintaining market position [21][22] Group 5 - The beauty industry is expected to face challenges in 2024, with increased competition and a more complex market environment [21] - The competitive dynamics are shifting, as companies like Shiseido leverage innovative marketing strategies to secure their positions [22] - The future of the industry will require continuous evolution and adaptation from all players to remain relevant and competitive [23]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of recommended stocks by brokerages in April, with the best-performing stock rising by 83%, and anticipates a volatile market in May with a focus on consumer demand, dividends, and technology sectors [2][4][10]. Summary by Sections April Stock Performance - In April, the A-share market indices collectively declined, with the ChiNext index dropping over 7%. However, brokerage-recommended stocks showed strong excess returns, with the top stock, Wancheng Group, rising 83% [4]. - The second-best performer was Xianda Co., which surged 61%, while Kexing Pharmaceutical and Minshida both saw increases of nearly 55% [4]. - Approximately 37% of the 46 brokerage stocks recorded positive returns in April, with Northeast Securities leading with a monthly return of 13.28% [4][5]. May Stock Recommendations - Brokerages are increasingly recommending stocks in the consumer demand sector for May, with East Peng Beverage and Guizhou Moutai among the highlighted stocks [6][10]. - The skincare and medical beauty sectors are also gaining attention, with stocks like Proya and Aimeike receiving multiple recommendations due to market trends favoring domestic brands and new product launches [6]. Market Outlook for May - Analysts expect the market to remain volatile in May, with some expressing optimism about potential upward movement. The consensus is that adjustments in the market present good opportunities for investment [10][11]. - Key sectors to watch include consumer demand, technology, and dividend-paying stocks, with a focus on stable assets and self-sufficient supply chains [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of recommended stocks by brokerages in April, with significant gains observed, particularly in consumer and technology sectors, as analysts anticipate a volatile market in May, viewing adjustments as potential buying opportunities [2][3][9]. Summary by Sections April Stock Performance - In April, the top-performing stock was Wancheng Group, which surged by 83%, recommended by three brokerages [3]. - Other notable stocks included Xianda Co., which rose by 61%, and Kexing Pharmaceutical, which increased by 55% [3]. - Approximately 37% of the 46 brokerages' recommended stocks achieved positive returns in April [4]. Brokerage Performance - Northeast Securities led with a monthly return of 13.28%, driven by strong recommendations like Wancheng Group and Xianda Co. [5]. - Huaxi Securities followed with a return of 10.57%, while Dongxing Securities, Huaxin Securities, and Huayuan Securities all exceeded 7% returns [5]. - Conversely, Guotou Securities reported a negative return of -8% for its recommended stocks [5]. May Stock Recommendations - Brokerages are focusing on consumer and domestic demand stocks for May, with East Peng Beverage and Guizhou Moutai among the favorites [6]. - The skincare and beauty sector is also gaining attention, with stocks like Proya and Aimeike receiving multiple recommendations [6]. Market Outlook for May - Analysts expect the market to remain volatile in May, with some expressing optimism about potential upward movement [9][10]. - Key sectors to watch include consumer, technology, and dividend-paying stocks, with a focus on domestic consumption and self-sufficiency in technology [9][10].

2 0 2 4年在国货美妆发展史上是值得记录一年： 一方面，国内诞生首个突破百亿美妆企业，珀莱雅以1 0 7 . 7 8亿元营收首次跻身"百亿俱乐部"， 成 为 行 业 里 程 碑 事 件 ； 同 时 ， 十 强 门 槛 抬 高 至 近 3 0 亿 元 ， 前 十 总 营 收 规 模 扩 大 至 5 4 3 . 7 7 亿 元。 另一方面，前十座次发生较大变化，毛戈平首次闯入榜单，上海家化、华熙生物等企业持续步 入变革期深水区，迎来业绩"震荡"。 在"突飞猛进"与震荡调整并存的阶段，头部国货企业的发展预示着行业怎样的未来？ 综 合 2 0 2 1 年 至 2 0 2 4 年 国 货 美 妆 上 市 企 业 十 强 榜 单 情 况 来 看 ， 可 以 发 现 ， 名 次 发 生 了 较 大 变 化。每一年的前三名都不相同，并且持续有"突围者"闯入榜单，例如2 0 2 4年的毛戈平。 | | | | 2021年至2024年国货美妆上市企业十强榜单 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1][10] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 10.778 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.04%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.552 billion yuan, a 30% increase [3][7] - The company has reached a significant milestone by becoming the first domestic beauty brand to exceed 10 billion yuan in revenue [7] - The online channel revenue for 2024 is projected to be 10.234 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.68%, accounting for 95.06% of the main business revenue [7] - The company has implemented a "Double Ten Strategy" aiming to rank among the top ten global cosmetics companies in the next decade [8] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to have a gross margin of 71.39% and a net margin of 14.71% [3] - The sales expenses for 2024 are expected to increase by 29.93% to 5.161 billion yuan, with a sales expense ratio of 47.88% [3] - The company’s revenue for Q1 2025 is expected to be 2.359 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 8.13%, with a net profit of 390 million yuan, reflecting a 28.87% increase [4] - The projected revenue and net profit for 2025-2027 are 12.307 billion yuan, 18.05 billion yuan, 14.089 billion yuan, and 21.09 billion yuan respectively [6][8] Market Position - The company has established a diverse brand portfolio catering to different consumer needs, with significant growth in its skincare and makeup segments [7][8] - The company has introduced several high-profile endorsements to enhance its market presence, including celebrities like Liu Yifei and Yi Yangqianxi [8]

截至2025年4月30日 09:42，中证主要消费指数(000932)上涨0.72%，成分股伊利股份(600887)上涨3.99%，金龙鱼(300999)上涨3.77%，今世缘(603369)上涨 3.74%，珀莱雅(603605)上涨1.71%，重庆啤酒(600132)上涨1.53%。主要消费ETF(159672)上涨0.91%，最新价报0.78元。拉长时间看，截至2025年4月29日， 主要消费ETF近3月累计上涨4.89%。 4月25日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议定调，支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸等；要提高中低收入群体收入， 大力发展服务消费，增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用；尽快清理消费领域限制性措施，设立服务消费与养老再贷款；加大资金支持力度，扩围提质实施"两 新"政策，加力实施"两重"建设。扩消费方向明确，服务消费有望成为内需增长的重要推动力。 回撤方面，截至2025年4月29日，主要消费ETF今年以来最大回撤5.57%，相对基准回撤0.34%。 费率方面，主要消费ETF管理费率为0.50%，托管费率为0.10%，费率在可比基金中最低。 此外，"五一假期"临近，国 ...