Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities indicates that the home appliance industry is expected to experience a slowdown in growth in 2026 due to high base effects, despite significant benefits from the "old-for-new" policy in 2025. Leading companies are anticipated to outperform the industry due to their channel and brand advantages. Long-term growth in overseas sales is also expected to remain stable, supported by an increase in global market share [1][2]. Summary by Sections 2025 Review - The home appliance sector has shown a cumulative increase of 8.1% year-to-date as of November 28, 2025, ranking 27th among all sectors and underperforming the CSI 300 index by 10.4 percentage points [2]. - The performance of various segments includes: home appliance components (+64.7%), black appliances (+12.6%), lighting equipment (+11.9%), small appliances (+9.5%), kitchen appliances (-0.7%), and white appliances (-1.1%) [2]. - Retail sales of home appliances from January to October 2025 increased by 20.1% year-on-year, driven by the "old-for-new" policy, although growth slowed in September and October due to high base effects. Exports in the same period decreased by 3.4% in USD terms and 2.5% in RMB terms, primarily due to the impact of the US-China trade war, but the decline was manageable, indicating resilience and global competitiveness [2]. 2026 Outlook - Domestic demand is expected to slow down in 2026 due to high base effects from the "old-for-new" policy in 2025, but leading companies are likely to outperform the industry due to their channel and brand advantages. For external sales, companies have adapted to trade policy fluctuations since 2018-2019, and long-term growth in overseas sales is anticipated [3]. - Profitability is expected to remain stable, with manageable cost pressures as copper prices have risen, shipping costs have returned to normal levels, and the exchange rate has shown slight appreciation [3]. - As of November 28, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the home appliance sector increased from 15.1x at the beginning of the year to 17.3x, placing it at the 66th percentile historically since 2016. The proportion of public funds heavily invested in the home appliance sector decreased to 2.5%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, marking a continuous decline over three quarters [3]. 2026 Sub-industry Outlook - White Appliances: Expected to face a slowdown in growth due to high base effects from national subsidies, but overseas sales are projected to remain resilient, benefiting from emerging market demand [4]. - Small Appliances: Continued policy support is expected to improve average prices in kitchen small appliances, with significant growth potential in the overseas market for robotic vacuum cleaners [4]. - Black Appliances: Product structure upgrades are anticipated to enhance average prices and profitability, with continued growth in overseas market share [5]. - Two-Wheelers: The implementation of new regulations in 2026 is expected to sustain industry growth, with leading companies likely to increase their market share as smaller competitors exit the market, and significant opportunities in overseas markets [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities indicates that the home appliance industry is expected to experience a slowdown in growth in 2026 due to high base effects from the "old-for-new" policy in 2025, but leading companies are likely to outperform the industry due to their channel and brand advantages [1][3]. 2025 Review - The overall performance of the home appliance sector has lagged behind, with the Shenyin Wanguo Home Appliance Index showing a cumulative increase of 8.1% from January 1 to November 28, 2025, ranking 27th among all sectors and underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 10.4 percentage points [2]. - The home appliance retail sales from January to October 2025 increased by 20.1% year-on-year, driven by the "old-for-new" policy, but growth rates slowed in September and October due to high base effects [2]. - Home appliance export values from January to October 2025 decreased by 3.4% in USD terms and 2.5% in RMB terms, primarily impacted by the US-China trade war, yet the decline was manageable, reflecting resilience and global competitiveness [2]. 2026 Outlook - On the demand side, the home appliance industry is expected to slow down in 2026 due to high base effects from the "old-for-new" policy in 2025, but leading companies are anticipated to leverage their channel and brand advantages to outperform the market [3]. - The profitability outlook remains stable, with only copper prices rising recently, while shipping costs have returned to normal levels and exchange rates have shown slight appreciation, keeping overall cost pressures manageable [3]. - As of November 28, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the home appliance sector increased from 15.1x at the beginning of the year to 17.3x, placing it at the 66th percentile historically since 2016 [3]. 2026 Sub-industry Outlook - In the white goods sector, growth may slow due to high base effects from national subsidies, but exports are expected to remain resilient, supported by emerging markets, leading to stable growth for leading companies [4]. - The small appliance segment is likely to see continued improvement in average prices due to ongoing policy support, with the vacuum cleaner industry expected to gain market share overseas, indicating significant long-term growth potential [4]. - In the black goods sector, product structure upgrades are anticipated to drive price increases and improve profitability, with overseas market share expected to continue rising [5]. - The two-wheeler industry is projected to maintain growth in 2026 with the full implementation of new regulations, as smaller manufacturers exit the market, allowing leading companies to increase their market share, particularly in overseas markets [5].

Global Market Overview - The global smart vacuum cleaner market shipped a total of 17.424 million units in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.7%, with 6.161 million units shipped in Q3 alone, marking a 22.9% increase [1] - The Middle East, Africa, and Europe have emerged as key growth drivers for the industry [1] Company Performance - Stone Technology (688169.SH) led the global shipment with 3.788 million units in the first three quarters, showing strong performance in the U.S., Germany, South Korea, and Turkey, where it maintained the top position [4] - Ecovacs (603486.SH) shipped 2.453 million units in the first three quarters, achieving a year-on-year growth of 27.7%, and retained the top position in the Chinese market [5] - Dreame ranked first in the European market in the first three quarters, with a market share of 26.8% in Western Europe, although it faced a noticeable decline in its domestic market share [6] - Xiaomi (01810) continues to focus on mid-range value-for-money products while expanding into high-end product lines, performing well in domestic and Asia-Pacific markets [7] - Yunji's global shipment volume ranked among the top five, with significant growth in the U.S. and Asia-Pacific markets, while maintaining a 16.2% market share in the domestic market [8] Chinese Market Insights - The Chinese smart vacuum cleaner market shipped 4.63 million units in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, indicating sustained industry growth [10] - Despite fluctuations in national subsidy policies, leading manufacturers have effectively countered these impacts through product upgrades and AI integration, maintaining steady market growth [10] - The market is experiencing increased competition, with DJI entering the market in August and ranking sixth in shipments, adding new competitive dynamics [10] - The industry faces significant inventory pressure, posing challenges for manufacturers in inventory turnover, profit management, and future product planning [10] Industry Trends - IDC's senior analyst Zhao Siquan noted that the robust growth of the global vacuum cleaner market is attributed to continuous product iteration by Chinese manufacturers, enhanced channel operations, and deepened market demand [11] - Future competition in the industry is expected to escalate, focusing on AI technology empowerment and home ecosystem collaboration, with technological innovation and ecosystem integration becoming key for companies to stand out [11]

Core Insights - The global smart vacuum cleaner market is expected to maintain strong growth, with a significant reshaping of the competitive landscape by 2025 [1][2] - All top five global vendors in terms of shipment volume are Chinese brands, indicating China's leading position in supply chain and technology in this sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the global smart vacuum cleaner market shipped a total of 17.424 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.7% [1] - The third quarter alone saw shipments of 6.161 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 22.9% [1] - The Middle East, Africa, and Europe are identified as key growth engines driving the industry's expansion [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Roborock ranked first globally with cumulative shipments of 3.788 million units in the first three quarters, focusing on low-profile cleaning solutions [1] - Ecovacs achieved cumulative shipments of 2.453 million units, marking a year-on-year growth of 27.7%, and is accelerating its international expansion [1] - Dreame performed notably in the European market, holding a 26.8% shipment share in Western Europe, although it faced a decline in domestic market share [1] Group 3: Market Trends and Challenges - Xiaomi is performing well in the Asia-Pacific market due to its mid-range value-for-money strategy and ecosystem advantages [2] - The Chinese market saw shipments of 4.63 million units in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year increase of 27.2% [2] - DJI has entered the vacuum cleaner market, quickly becoming the sixth largest player in China, introducing new competition and uncertainty [2] - The industry faces challenges with high inventory pressure, impacting manufacturers' inventory turnover, profit management, and future product strategies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a mixed trend with the aviation sector performing well while the robotics sector experiences fluctuations, influenced by recent developments in humanoid robotics and U.S. policy shifts towards robotics technology [1][5][7]. Robotics Sector Performance - As of 11:30, the Robotics ETF (159213) saw a slight increase of 0.52%, with over 1.7 million yuan flowing into the fund yesterday [1]. - The top components of the Robotics ETF include significant gains from companies like Dazhong Laser, which rose over 4%, while others like Huichuan Technology and iFlytek experienced minor declines [3][4]. U.S. Robotics Policy Developments - The U.S. is shifting focus towards robotics, planning to release an executive order on robotics technology next year, following a five-month acceleration of AI development plans [5][7]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce is actively meeting with robotics CEOs, and a national robotics committee is being proposed, indicating a strong governmental push towards the robotics sector [7]. Impact on Robotics Industry - The entire robotics supply chain is expected to benefit from increased competition and policy support, enhancing the industry's maturity and technological capabilities [8][9]. - Key areas poised for growth include core components, complete machine manufacturers, and application scenarios, with a focus on cost reduction and market expansion [9][10]. Broader Industry Opportunities - The high-end manufacturing sector is anticipated to improve due to advancements in robotics, potentially increasing competitiveness against foreign high-end manufacturing [10]. - The AI and technology supply chains, including algorithms, chips, and sensors, are also expected to see benefits from the growth of the robotics industry [11]. - Long-term, robotics is projected to enhance productivity across various sectors, including daily use, defense, and elder care, indicating a broad demand for robotic solutions [12].

Core Insights - The home appliance industry is undergoing a transformation from hardware competition to a focus on "smart ecosystems" and "green low-carbon technology" as new competitive barriers are established [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - Leading brands are shifting from single product functionality to building comprehensive smart ecosystems and emphasizing green technology [1] - The industry is moving towards a competitive phase characterized by "ecosystem collaboration + green technology + global layout" [6] - Companies are leveraging smart ecosystems to break category boundaries and are focusing on sustainable growth through low-carbon technologies and global expansion [6] Group 2: Key Players - Midea is focusing on ecosystem collaboration, with its Midea Home app connecting over 118.6 million devices as of June this year [6] - Daikin is recognized as a foreign brand leader, emphasizing low-carbon technology and global expansion, having received CDP climate change A-level certification [6] - Stone Technology, Hualing, and Haier ranked as the top three brands in the latest consumer index with comprehensive heat index scores of 1.76, 1.49, and 1.39 respectively [5] Group 3: Product Innovations - The washing and display sectors are experiencing deep integration of technological iteration and demand upgrades, with a shift towards multi-tub washing machines and Mini LED technology [7] - Haier launched a four-tub washing machine that integrates AI features for enhanced user experience, while brands like Little Swan and Xiaomi are also entering the multi-tub market [7] - TCL reported a 176.1% year-on-year increase in Mini LED TV shipments, showcasing significant advancements in display technology [7]

Summary of Stone Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Stone Technology - **Industry**: Home Cleaning Appliances Key Points Revenue Growth Projections - Stone Technology expects a 30% growth in revenue from robotic vacuum cleaners in 2026, with floor cleaning machines' revenue increasing from 3 billion yuan in 2025 to 5 billion yuan, leading to an overall revenue growth exceeding 30% [2][4][12] Market Performance - In Q4 2025, Stone Technology showed strong performance in both domestic and international markets, with GMV growth of approximately 40% on Amazon in the US and 50% in Europe during Black Friday, with Germany leading at over 60% [3] - Domestic GMV growth for robotic vacuum cleaners was around 30% during Double Eleven, while floor cleaning machines saw over 300% growth [3] Competitive Landscape - iRobot is facing severe financial difficulties, with its main creditor, Carlyle Group, deciding not to extend debt, leading to a potential bankruptcy scenario. This situation is expected to hinder iRobot's business progress significantly [2][6] - Cloud Whale is rumored to be considering a sale due to poor overseas market performance and unprofitability in the domestic market [6] - Pursue's diversification has led to a decrease in its market share from 20% to 7-8% [6] Competitive Strategies - Ecovacs is focusing on a simplified product strategy with a cost advantage, emphasizing roller technology, which is easier for consumers to understand [7] - Stone Technology plans to launch low-cost roller products in Q4 2025 to counter Ecovacs' pricing advantage and will continue to iterate on its dual-disc products to differentiate price points [8] Market Opportunities - Stone Technology is optimistic about its prospects in the US market, anticipating the ability to capture market share from iRobot and increase shelf space in retail channels [9][10] - The reduction of iRobot's non-core business will further free up shelf space for Chinese brands, with expectations of increased offline channel share in the US market by 2026 [9][10] Profitability Outlook - Stone Technology's overall profit margin is expected to maintain at least 10% by the end of 2026, with a projected market value exceeding 60 billion yuan [4][12][13] - Ecovacs is unlikely to engage in a price war due to its focus on maintaining profitability, despite facing pressure from Stone Technology's cost-effective products [14] Regional Market Dynamics - In Europe, competition has improved for Stone Technology, with a recovery in sales through increased marketing efforts and new product launches, leading to a rebound in market share [17] - The competitive pressure from Pursue has decreased, as it can no longer afford to aggressively capture market share without sufficient funding [17] Future Projections - By the end of 2026, Stone Technology's revenue is projected to exceed 24 billion yuan, with net profits around 2.5 billion yuan, assuming a 30% growth rate [12][13] Domestic Market Challenges - The reduction of government subsidies is expected to have a more significant impact on Ecovacs than on Stone Technology, which is adapting its product offerings to mitigate cost disadvantages [11][16] Additional Insights - Stone Technology's strategy includes maintaining stable pricing during promotional periods, which has helped reduce domestic losses compared to previous quarters [5] - The company is also focusing on expanding its SKU offerings to enhance competitiveness in both domestic and international markets [8][12]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the home appliance industry is expected to face a slowdown in growth due to high base effects from national subsidies in 2026, but leading companies are projected to maintain stable performance [2] - The small appliance sector is anticipated to see continued improvement in average prices due to ongoing policy support, with significant growth potential in the robotic vacuum cleaner market [2] - The black appliance segment is expected to benefit from product upgrades leading to higher average prices and improved profitability, with overseas market share likely to continue increasing [2] - The two-wheeler market is projected to grow in 2026 with the full implementation of new regulations, as smaller manufacturers exit the market, allowing leading companies to gain market share, particularly in overseas markets [2] 2025 Annual Summary - The home appliance sector underperformed overall, with an 8.1% increase from January 1 to November 28, 2025, ranking 27th among all industries and lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 10.4 percentage points [17] - The appliance components sector outperformed with a 64.7% increase, while white goods and kitchen appliances saw declines of 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively [17] - Domestic retail sales of home appliances showed a cumulative year-on-year increase of 20.1% from January to October 2025, but growth slowed in September and October due to high base effects [35] 2026 Outlook - Domestic sales are expected to slow down due to high base effects from the previous year's subsidy policies, but leading companies are likely to outperform the industry due to their channel and brand advantages [53] - Export performance is anticipated to remain stable despite short-term concerns over tariffs, as many companies have adapted their overseas production strategies since 2018-2019 [56] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy changes that could impact both domestic and international sales in 2026 [56] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the white goods sector such as Midea Group and Haier Smart Home, which are expected to deliver stable returns and high dividends [7] - For the black appliance segment, companies like Hisense and TCL are highlighted as beneficiaries of global market share growth and product upgrades [7] - The report also suggests considering companies like Ninebot and Roborock, which are positioned for share gains and category expansion [7]

Group 1 - The Robot ETF (562500) experienced a decline of 0.74% as of 1:46 PM today, showing a volatile consolidation pattern, with the current price at a relative low for the day [1] - Despite the overall decline in holdings, floor-cleaning robots demonstrated strong resilience, with Ecovacs rising by 5.11% and Stone Technology increasing by 4.64%, while other stocks like Huadong CNC and Tianzhun Technology also showed gains [1] - The trading volume reached 456 million yuan during the session, maintaining a high level of liquidity, and the Robot ETF saw a net inflow of over 180 million yuan yesterday [1] Group 2 - Liyi Intelligent Manufacturing announced the completion of over 5,000 humanoid robot hardware/assembly services, covering various high-precision components and modules [1] - The company has formed business collaborations with over 20 domestic enterprises, including Beijing Humanoid, Zhiyuan Robotics, Qiangnao Technology, Aoyi Technology, and Jiutian Innovation [1] - In North America, Liyi has made progress with several leading AI/robotics clients this year, continuously providing hardware and ODM services [1] Group 3 - Open Source Securities indicated that the development of domestic humanoid robots has a complete supply chain system, and domestic companies have accumulated significant financing over the past 1-2 years [1] - If relevant supportive policies are implemented, the reserved funds are expected to accelerate investment in practical applications, alongside a capital wave led by leading companies like Yushu and Zhiyuan, suggesting the industry may enter a phase of accelerated development [1] Group 4 - The Robot ETF (562500) is the only robot-themed ETF in the market with a scale exceeding 20 billion yuan, covering various segments such as humanoid robots, industrial robots, and service robots, facilitating investors' access to the entire robot industry chain [2]

Market Overview - The small home appliance sector increased by 0.19% on December 2, with Lek Electric leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3897.71, down 0.42%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13056.7, down 0.68% [1] Stock Performance - Lek Electric (603355) closed at 33.52, up 6.75% with a trading volume of 95,800 shares and a turnover of 313 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included Ousheng Electric (301187) with a 2.13% increase, and Kaineng Health (300272) with a 1.09% increase [1] - The overall performance of the small home appliance stocks showed mixed results, with some stocks experiencing declines [2] Capital Flow - The small home appliance sector saw a net inflow of 66.24 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 68.35 million yuan [2] - The capital flow data indicates that while institutional investors were net buyers, retail investors were net sellers in the sector [3] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Stone Technology (688169) had a net inflow of 32.78 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 20.05 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Lek Electric (603355) also saw a net inflow of 22.14 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors withdrawing 16.42 million yuan [3] - Ousheng Electric (301187) had a significant net inflow of 13.99 million yuan from institutional investors, but a notable net outflow of 16.25 million yuan from retail investors [3]