廖俊详细介绍了泸州老窖集团多元化、跨越式发展的成果。他表示，此次战略合作框架协议的签署，为 双方深度合作奠定了良好基础，希望双方紧密协作，探索灵活高效的体制机制，共同推动优质项目落 地，开辟更为广阔的赛道，为产业发展注入新活力。希望双方积极履行国企社会责任，在开展市场化投 资的同时，探索通过"以投引产"等形式，引进优质项目落地泸州，为地方经济发展作出积极贡献。 近日，四川振兴集团党委副书记、副董事长、总经理曾显斌率队赴泸州老窖集团座谈交流，泸州老窖集 团党委副书记、副董事长、总裁廖俊出席座谈会。会上，双方共同见证了四川创新发展投资管理有限公 司与四川璞信产融投资有限责任公司的战略合作协议签约仪式。 川创投公司与璞信投资公司双方代表签署了战略合作协议，约定建立互利共赢且可持续的战略伙伴关 系，推动双方实现高质量发展。(马力贤) 曾显斌详细介绍了四川振兴集团近年来转型发展的成果及产业布局。他表示，泸州老窖具有强有力的品 牌价值和综合实力，此次与璞信投资达成战略合作，是双方强强联合、共谋发展的重要举措，是双方基 于共同理念和发展目标的重要选择，希望双方充分发挥各自在行业研究、项目储备和产融结合方面的优 势，携手挖掘 ...

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao has fallen behind in the competitive high-end liquor market due to strategic missteps, leading to a significant decline in market position and valuation compared to peers like Wuliangye and Moutai [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, Luzhou Laojiao achieved revenue of 24.3 billion yuan and net profit of 11.6 billion yuan, both setting historical records, with gross and net profit margins leading the industry [2][3]. - Revenue growth has slowed significantly, with a year-on-year increase of only 10.76% in the first three quarters of 2024, marking the lowest profit growth rate since 2016 [2][3][4]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw a minimal revenue increase of 0.67% and a net profit growth of 2.58%, indicating stagnation [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Context - The overall liquor industry is facing challenges, with a reported decline in sales during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays by over 10% in 2024, and an average inventory turnover of 867.85 days among 20 listed liquor companies [7][8]. - The total production of liquor in China decreased by 1.8% year-on-year in 2024, reflecting a broader industry downturn [7][8]. - The A-share liquor sector experienced a 17.19% decline in 2024, with a market capitalization loss exceeding 506.5 billion yuan, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline [7][8]. Group 3: Strategic Challenges - Luzhou Laojiao's product strategy is misaligned with industry trends, heavily relying on high-end products like Guojiao 1573, which constitutes at least 60% of its revenue [10][11]. - The high-end liquor market is experiencing a downturn, with prices for premium products like Guojiao 1573 and Feitian Moutai declining significantly from their peaks [11][13]. - The company has seen a decrease in sales growth for high-end liquor, with a 10.76% increase in the first three quarters of 2024, which is significantly lower than previous years [13][14]. Group 4: Inventory and Channel Issues - Luzhou Laojiao's inventory has been increasing, with total inventory reaching 12.3 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2024, up 11.7% year-on-year, indicating challenges in channel inventory management [8][10]. - The company is attempting to adjust its distribution strategy to manage inventory levels, but the effectiveness of these measures remains questionable as channel inventory still averages around three months [25][26]. - The shift towards a consumer-driven sales strategy, emphasizing actual consumption over mere distribution, is ongoing but has not yet fully penetrated the market [25][26]. Group 5: Brand and Channel Strategy - Luzhou Laojiao has focused on brand positioning and channel transformation, establishing a dual-brand strategy centered on Guojiao 1573 and other key products [23][24]. - The company has made efforts to enhance its digital marketing and direct-to-consumer sales, but traditional distribution channels still dominate, with online sales accounting for only 5.28% of total revenue [24][25]. - The brand value of Luzhou Laojiao has increased, ranking third in the industry with a value of 107.7 billion yuan, but the company faces significant challenges in maintaining this position amid market pressures [23][24].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [35] Core Views - The report indicates that the white liquor market remains stable, with a focus on high-performing companies. The market is expected to see single-digit positive growth in Q1 2025 for major white liquor companies, supported by strong performance from core products. Long-term demand recovery is anticipated with the implementation of consumer policies, although short-term tariff risks need to be monitored [6][4][8] - In the food sector, the report highlights the emergence of new products in the snack industry and suggests investment opportunities in the snack and catering supply chain. The snack industry is experiencing high growth due to channel and product advantages, while the catering industry is expected to stabilize and show slight recovery [6][9] Summary by Sections White Liquor Industry - The white liquor index saw a cumulative increase of 0.23% this week, with top performers including Jinshiyuan (+1.94%), Luzhou Laojiao (+1.24%), and Guizhou Moutai (+0.73%). Conversely, Yinjia Gongjiu (-3.05%), Huangtai Jiuye (-4.64%), and Yanshi Co. (-31.24%) were the worst performers [6] - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: high-end white liquor with strong demand (Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao), mid-range white liquor with ongoing national expansion (Shanxi Fenjiu), and real estate liquor with expanding price ranges (Yinjia Gongjiu, Jinshiyuan, Laobai Ganjiu, Gujing Gongjiu) [6][4] Food Industry - The food index experienced a cumulative decline of 0.41% this week, with top gainers being Guangming Meat Industry (+13.02%), Jiahe Food (+6.44%), and Yanjinpuzi (+5.33%). The worst performers included Xiwang Food (-7.24%), Lianhua Holdings (-9.29%), and Baiyang Co. (-12.25%) [6] - The report emphasizes the high growth potential in the snack sector and suggests monitoring companies like Three Squirrels and Yanjinpuzi. It also notes a potential slight recovery in the catering industry, recommending attention to related sectors such as beer, condiments, and frozen foods, with specific mentions of Yanjing Beer, Haitian Flavoring, and Anjui Foods [6][9] Individual Company Insights - Guizhou Moutai is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 15.44% in 2024, with a stable operational rhythm despite a weak macroeconomic environment [7] - Wuliangye plans to maintain a cash dividend of no less than 70% of its net profit for 2024-2026, aiming to bolster market confidence [7] - Luzhou Laojiao is expected to see growth driven by its strong brand foundation and strategic market expansion [7] - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue increase of 11.4% in Q3 2024, with a focus on marketing reforms and channel expansion [7] - In the food sector, East Peng Beverage reported a 45.34% revenue increase, while Haitian Flavoring showed a 9.38% revenue growth, indicating resilience in their respective markets [10][11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The 2025 Spring Sugar and Wine Fair was held from March 20 to March 27 in Chengdu, with a noticeable decline in attendance and an increase in promotional activities. The fair's role in brand recruitment has weakened due to the downward trend in the liquor industry, leading to slower sales for small brands and new products [2] - Despite the challenges, the Spring Sugar Fair remains a significant event in the industry, with major brands seeking to adapt through various cultural activities and product launches [2] - The industry is currently stable, with liquor merchants' attitudes improving after a low point last year. The report anticipates 2025 will be an adjustment year for the liquor industry, with the speed of channel clearing determining the timing of the industry's bottoming out [2] - Major liquor brands are focusing on practical changes and channel transformations to address declining profit margins and high inventory levels. New sales channels such as online live streaming and e-commerce are impacting traditional sales methods [2] - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the liquor industry's adjustments, emphasizing the importance of stability for development. The performance of listed companies is expected to show a general slowdown in the first half of the year, with key observations set for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [2] Summary by Sections - **Event Overview**: The Spring Sugar and Wine Fair experienced lower attendance and increased promotional activities, indicating a shift in the industry's dynamics [2] - **Market Stability**: The liquor industry is stable, with merchants' attitudes improving, but 2025 is expected to be a year of adjustment [2] - **Brand Strategies**: Major brands are adapting through product launches and cultural events, while also addressing channel challenges and inventory issues [2] - **Future Outlook**: The report suggests a cautious optimism for the liquor industry, with the need for stability and effective channel management being crucial for future performance [2]

Core Insights - The discussion at the China International Wine Industry Development Conference focused on the theme "Seeking Change Amid Stability" and aimed to explore new paths for high-quality development in the Chinese liquor industry [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The younger demographic is identified as a key strategic focus for growth in the liquor industry, particularly in the context of generational consumption shifts [2] - Companies are shifting from a supply-driven model to a consumer-centric approach, recognizing that younger consumers are now entering the market [3] Group 2: Company Strategies - Luzhou Laojiao's General Manager Lin Feng highlighted the importance of targeting younger consumers, noting that the brand has successfully entered the 20 billion yuan market by focusing on the 25 to 35 age group [3] - Luzhou Laojiao has initiated the "Jiao Master Festival" to enhance brand culture and innovate consumer experiences, covering various fields such as tasting, arts, and sports [3] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue from emerging channels, growing from 754 million yuan in 2020 to 1.42 billion yuan in 2023, indicating a near doubling of growth [4] Group 3: Differentiation Strategies - Kingway's President Wang Nanbo emphasized the importance of health value in the beverage industry, focusing on herbal and health-oriented products to differentiate from traditional liquor brands [6] - China Resources Beer is implementing a "Beer + White" dual empowerment strategy after acquiring Jinsha Liquor, leveraging shared resources and seasonal sales strategies to enhance market efficiency [8]

Group 1 - Luzhou Laojiao's overall product QR code scanning rate has reached 40%, indicating effective digital transformation and inventory management, with positive growth in sales and opening volume during the Spring Festival [1] - The establishment of a consumer data model will enable the company to better understand market demand and optimize products and services, potentially boosting confidence in the liquor industry [1] Group 2 - Wang Bowei announced the upgrade of five strategic products for Langjiu, including the ultra-high-end "Hongyun Lang" and classic "Langpai Lang," reflecting the company's strategy to enhance product matrix and brand value [2] - The product upgrades are expected to improve consumer recognition and optimize product structure, positively impacting the company's market positioning and long-term development [2] - Langjiu's actions may stimulate innovation and upgrades within the liquor sector, promoting a shift towards higher quality and added value [2] Group 3 - Hainan Yedao appointed new executives, Wang Zhiming as the board secretary and Wang Feiyan as the financial director, both bringing extensive management experience [3] - The personnel changes suggest an optimization of the company's governance structure and financial strategy, which may enhance strategic execution and market competitiveness [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao (000568) with a target price of 206 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company has reached a turning point in its fundamentals, with digitalization becoming a key operational focus. The management's strategies have proven effective in stabilizing prices and reducing inventory levels, which are now at a historically low point. The company aims for healthy growth in 2025, primarily focusing on inventory digestion in the second quarter [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - Total revenue is projected to grow from 30,233 million CNY in 2023 to 36,326 million CNY in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.1% [3]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 13,246 million CNY in 2023 to 15,860 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 12.9% [3]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is forecasted to rise from 9.00 CNY in 2023 to 10.77 CNY in 2026 [3]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 15 in 2023 to 12 in 2026, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 4.7 to 3.2 over the same period [3]. Operational Highlights - **Digitalization**: - The company has achieved a leading position in digitalization within the liquor industry, implementing digital solutions across production, packaging, management, and marketing. This includes a fully automated packaging line and a comprehensive marketing system that enhances consumer engagement and inventory management [7]. - **Inventory Management**: - The company has effectively reduced channel inventory to a manageable level of 2-3 months, indicating a strong focus on maintaining market order and pricing stability [7]. Market Position - **Competitive Advantage**: - Luzhou Laojiao's management has demonstrated flexibility and pragmatism in its strategies, which have helped maintain price stability and improve sales quality. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on potential demand recovery in the future [7].

Market Performance - On March 25, the food and beverage sector declined by 0.2%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 0.1 percentage points, ranking 17th among 31 sub-industries in the Shenwan classification [1] - Within the food and beverage sector, dairy (+1.5%), beer (+1.3%), and meat products (+0.9%) showed relatively strong performance, with companies like Beiningmei, Huangshi Group, and Western Pastoral leading the gains [2][3] Important Announcements - Yuanzi Co. reported a total operating income of 2.314 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.99%; total profit reached 321 million yuan, down 9.3%; and net profit attributable to shareholders was 249 million yuan, a decline of 9.98% [4] - Xianle Health announced an adjustment to the conversion price of its convertible bonds, changing from 42.13 yuan/share to 41.96 yuan/share [4] - Shuanghui Development reported a total operating income of 59.561 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 0.64%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.989 billion yuan, down 1.26%; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 4.813 billion yuan, also down 1.26% [4] Industry News - Luzhou Laojiao launched its Green Bean Daqu X15 on March 22, during a grand event in Luzhou, highlighting the health elements of the product [4] - The first high-end yellow wine forum and the launch of Kuaijishan Lanting·Xu took place on March 23 in Chengdu, gathering industry elites and experts to discuss the future of yellow wine [4] - On March 24, the "Constructing Guotai·Tongzhi Business Road" event was held in Chengdu, where Guotai officially launched several new products, emphasizing differentiation in the market [4]

Group 1: Sales Performance and Planning - During the Spring Festival, the company's main products achieved positive year-on-year growth in sales and opening rates, with inventory well-controlled [1] - The annual business plan has been disclosed after board approval [1] - The company utilizes digital tools for accurate monitoring of sales and inventory across regions, transitioning from distributor quota to terminal quota based on consumer data [2] Group 2: Digital Transformation - The company is implementing a comprehensive digital transformation across management, production, and marketing systems to reduce costs and improve efficiency [1] - Current overall product scanning rate stands at 40%, with a focus on consumer data modeling to enhance consumer engagement [1] Group 3: Market Strategy and Product Development - The company aims to enhance product quality, cultural significance, brand promotion, and talent acquisition to stand out in an increasingly concentrated industry [1] - Low-alcohol products are expected to become a trend, with the company leveraging its technical advantages in this area and adapting product offerings based on local consumer habits [1][2] - The company plans to maintain its position as one of China's top three high-end liquor brands while expanding its product matrix to cover all price ranges and exploring innovative product lines [2] Group 4: Consumer Engagement and Future Growth - Consumer cultivation is a long-term process, with a focus on understanding the needs of new-generation consumers while enhancing public relations in emerging industries [2]

Group 1 - The compound seasoning industry is expected to reach a revenue of 134.1 billion CNY in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% from 2019 to 2024 [16][21][29] - The hot pot base market is projected to maintain a growth rate of over 5% in the next five years, with a market size of approximately 600 billion CNY [33][35] - The Chinese compound seasoning sector is still in its growth phase, with significant opportunities for new product development, particularly in categories like sauerkraut fish and crayfish seasoning [41][43] Group 2 - In February, the food and beverage sector outperformed the market by 2.2 percentage points, with sub-sectors like liquor showing strong performance [12][20] - The valuation of the food and beverage sector is at historical lows, with the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio at the 12th percentile and the price-to-book (PB) ratio at the 23rd percentile since 2010 [12][24] - The net inflow of southbound funds in February reached 152.8 billion HKD, indicating strong interest in stocks like Qingdao Beer and COFCO Joycome [12][14] Group 3 - The liquor market is experiencing a recovery, with companies controlling inventory and maintaining prices, as seen with the price of Moutai at 2,210 CNY per bottle [17][32] - The sales of consumer goods improved in February, particularly in beer, dairy products, and frozen foods, while raw material prices showed mixed trends [18][19] - The overall retail sales in January and February 2025 are expected to grow by 4.0% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [28][31] Group 4 - Investment recommendations include key players in the liquor sector such as Luzhou Laojiao, Jinshiyuan, and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as consumer goods companies like Yanjing Beer and Tianwei Foods [10][12] - The report emphasizes the potential for new product launches in the compound seasoning market, driven by changing consumer preferences and the expansion of retail channels like Sam's Club [41][43] - The macroeconomic environment is improving, which is expected to boost consumer confidence and spending, further supporting the growth of the food and beverage sector [29][31]