Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a 19.5% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 24.5% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024. In Q3 2024, revenue and net profit increased by 13.4% and 13.6% respectively, with improved net profit margin driven by enhanced gross sales [2][5] - The company is expected to benefit from structural growth in the domestic market, particularly in the 100-300 RMB price range, with a strong likelihood of achieving its revenue targets for 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - As of November 7, 2024, the closing price is 219.06 RMB, with a circulating share capital of 5.29 billion shares and a net asset value per share of 45.20 RMB [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 54.6 billion RMB, a 24.6% increase year-on-year, with a cash collection rate of 103.74% [4] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 239.4 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 18.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 54.8 billion RMB, reflecting a 19.4% increase [5][6] - The revenue growth rates for the years 2024 to 2026 are forecasted at 18.2%, 12.3%, and 13.9% respectively, while net profit growth rates are expected to be 19.4%, 16.5%, and 19.3% [6] Market Dynamics - The company’s product structure is shifting towards the 100-300 RMB range, with significant growth in the sales of aged raw liquor products, particularly "Gu 8" and "Gu 16," which saw growth rates exceeding 30% [3] - The company has completed its revenue collection tasks in most regions within Anhui province, with progress in other provinces ranging from 70% to 90% [3] Cost and Margin Analysis - In Q3 2024, the net profit margin increased by 0.17 percentage points to 23.1%, although the gross margin decreased by 1.55 percentage points due to changes in product mix and increased channel expenses [4] - The company has focused its expense optimization efforts on the consumer end, leading to a decrease in sales and management expense ratios [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Increase Holding" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 19.069 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.53% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 4.746 billion yuan, up 24.49% year-on-year [1] - The company maintained strong growth resilience despite a slowdown in sales momentum in the third quarter [1] Market Data Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 5.263 billion yuan in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13.36% [1] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 1.174 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.60% [1] - The company’s market share continues to improve within the province, benefiting from the upgrade of local banquet consumption [1] Financial Forecasts - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 23.869 billion yuan, 26.628 billion yuan, and 29.449 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.9%, 11.6%, and 10.6% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 5.569 billion yuan, 6.325 billion yuan, and 7.078 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 21.3%, 13.6%, and 11.9% respectively [2] - The gross margin is projected to remain stable, increasing from 79.1% in 2023 to 80.0% by 2026 [2] Profitability Metrics - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 22.5% in 2024, slightly decreasing to 22.1% by 2026 [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 8.68 yuan in 2023 to 13.39 yuan in 2026 [2] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 22.1 in 2023 to 14.3 by 2026 [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance compared to the industry, with a steady profit level [1] - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 19.069 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.53%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.746 billion yuan, up 24.49% year-on-year [1] - The third quarter of 2024 saw total revenue of 5.263 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.36%, and a net profit of 1.174 billion yuan, up 13.60% year-on-year [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue growth in Q1-Q3 2024 was 25.85%, 16.79%, and 13.36% respectively, indicating a deceleration in growth due to overall market weakness, yet still outperforming the industry [1] - Gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 79.71%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product mix optimization [1] - The net profit margin for the same period was 24.89%, up 0.99 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved gross margin and reduced expense ratios [1] Q3 Performance - In Q3 2024, the gross margin decreased to 77.87%, down 1.55 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin remained stable at 22.30%, up 0.05 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company experienced a reduction in contract liabilities, which decreased by 41.61% year-on-year to 1.936 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2024 [1] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.640 billion yuan, 6.497 billion yuan, and 7.446 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 22.89%, 15.20%, and 14.61% [1] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for these years are estimated at 18, 16, and 14 times, with a market capitalization of 103.1 billion yuan as of November 4 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the industry benchmark by more than 15% [2][4]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated robust performance with a total revenue of 19.069 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.53%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.746 billion yuan, up 24.49% year-on-year [3][4]. - Despite a slight decline in gross margin, the company has maintained a stable profit margin due to effective cost management and a decrease in sales expenses [4]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.640 billion yuan, 6.497 billion yuan, and 7.446 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 22.89%, 15.20%, and 14.61% [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 79.71%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 24.89%, up 0.99 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The revenue growth rates for the first three quarters of 2024 were 25.85%, 16.79%, and 13.36% respectively, indicating a gradual slowdown in growth but still outperforming the overall industry [4]. - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 23.896 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.98% [6]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio forecast of 18, 16, and 14 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, based on a market capitalization of 103.1 billion yuan [4][6]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 22.75%, 22.83%, and 22.80% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 19.069 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.746 billion yuan, up 24.5% year-on-year [4] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.263 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 13.4%, and a net profit of 1.174 billion yuan, increasing by 13.6% year-on-year [4] - The company is benefiting from strong performance in its key products and is focusing on expanding its market presence outside its home province [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 24.309 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.758 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.5% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 10.89 yuan, with projected EPS for 2025 and 2026 at 12.69 yuan and 14.35 yuan respectively [6][9] Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 77.9%, a decrease of 1.55 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix issues [5] - The company has shown strong cash flow performance, with operating cash flow increasing by 34.6% year-on-year to 1.334 billion yuan in Q3 2024 [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its provincial market strength while also pushing for national expansion, which is expected to drive positive channel development [4] - The company’s sales expense ratio decreased by 5.32 percentage points year-on-year to 23.0%, indicating improved cost management [5] Valuation - The company is assigned a P/E ratio of 20-25 times for 2024, leading to a fair value range of 217.84 to 272.30 yuan per share [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gujing Gongjiu (000596) [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 19.07 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.75 billion yuan, up 24.5% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue was 5.26 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.4%, and a net profit of 1.17 billion yuan, up 13.6% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [1][2] - Despite a relatively weak external consumption environment, the company managed to maintain double-digit growth in Q3 2024, showcasing strong resilience in growth amid increased market competition [3] - The company is focusing on its mid-to-high-end strategy and national expansion, aiming to deepen its market presence in its home province while ensuring stable pricing for its products [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the gross margin decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 77.9%, primarily due to an increase in the proportion of lower-priced products. The sales expense ratio significantly decreased by 5.3 percentage points to 23.0%, while the overall expense ratio fell by 5.0 percentage points to 29.0%. The net profit margin slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points to 23.1% [2] - The company reported cash flow from sales of 5.46 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%, with contract liabilities at 1.94 billion yuan, down 41.6% year-on-year [2] Growth Strategy - The company is leveraging the upcoming festive seasons to boost sales through innovative marketing strategies and consumer engagement activities. It aims to stabilize channel profits through various promotional activities [2] - The company is committed to its strategy of national expansion and focusing on mid-to-high-end products, which is expected to enhance its competitive advantage and sustain growth [3] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 10.73 yuan, 12.49 yuan, and 14.41 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18x, 15x, and 13x. The company is expected to continue benefiting from its strategic initiatives, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a steady growth in performance with a total revenue of 5.263 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.174 billion yuan, up 13.60% year-on-year [2][6]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 77.87%, a decrease of 1.55 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to adjustments in product structure [6]. - The company has shown strong channel operation capabilities, with products like Gu 8 and Gu 16 driving growth despite concerns about high inventory levels in provincial channels [6]. - The management's respect for market rules and leading channel operation capabilities support the "Buy" rating [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 19.069 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 19.53%, and a net profit of 4.746 billion yuan, up 24.49% year-on-year [6]. - The sales cash collection in Q3 2024 was 5.460 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 24.58%, indicating resilience in the company's financial statements [6]. - The company expects revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 23.701 billion yuan, 26.541 billion yuan, and 29.248 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.02%, 11.98%, and 10.20% [6][7]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 18, 16, and 14 respectively [6][7]. - The estimated EBITDA for 2024 is 8.778 billion yuan, with a corresponding EV/EBITDA ratio of 9.3 [7]. Market Position - The company is positioned in the food and beverage industry, specifically in the liquor sector, with a market capitalization of approximately 76.126 billion yuan [4][6]. - The company’s channel operation strategy, including a shift from channel expenses to consumer incentives, is expected to enhance its market presence [6].

古井贡酒（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 000596） 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------|-----------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

2024 年 11 月 1 日 公司研究 符合预期，彰显韧性 ——古井贡酒（000596.SZ）2024 年三季报点评 要点 事件：古井贡酒发布 2024 年三季报，公司 24 年前三季度实现总营收 190.69 亿 元、同比增长 19.53%，实现归母净利润 47.46 亿元、同比增长 24.49%。其中 Q3 单季总营收 52.63 亿元、同比增长 13.36%，归母净利润 11.74 亿元、同比 增长 13.60%，Q3 收入及业绩表现符合此前市场预期。 Q3 收入增长符合预期，中档价位产品增长提速。三季度公司收入端同比增长 13.4%，增速环比 Q2 放缓但符合市场此前预期，虽然行业整体以及省内需求面 临一定压力，但 Q3 公司收入实现双位数以上增幅、成长性在板块内依旧领先。 1）产品端，估计中间价位的古 7/古 8 收入增速相对较快，古 7 放开在省外部分 区域招商、估计增长提速较为明显，古 8 加大在省内市场的红包等投入力度。古 16 销售收入延续较快增长势头，渠道反馈古 16 受益于省内宴席用酒价位升级、 估计宴席场景支撑较高消费。古 20 作为次高端价位产品受到外部环境影响相对 较大、估计增速 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][7] Core Views - The company demonstrates strong performance resilience as a leading player in the Huizhou liquor industry, with revenue growth outpacing industry peers [2][4] - The company achieved a total revenue of 19.069 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.53%, and a net profit of 4.746 billion yuan, up 24.49% year-on-year [1][2] - The company is expected to continue its upward momentum, with revenue projections for 2024-2026 set at 23.778 billion yuan, 26.964 billion yuan, and 30.011 billion yuan respectively [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.263 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.36%, and a net profit of 1.174 billion yuan, up 13.60% year-on-year [1][2] - The company's sales net profit margin increased by 0.17 percentage points to 23.14%, while the gross profit margin decreased by 1.55 percentage points to 77.87% [2][4] Market Position - The company maintains a solid market position in its home province of Anhui, which remains the primary source of revenue growth, while also expanding its presence in other provinces such as Jiangsu, Shandong, and Zhejiang [2][4] Product Performance - The company’s product lines, including the Xianli version and various aged products, are expected to benefit from the ongoing growth in consumer spending, although some segments may experience a slowdown in growth rates [2][4] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company reported a significant increase in cash flow, with operating cash flow net amount rising by 34.55% year-on-year [2][4] - As of Q3 2024, the company’s contract liabilities stood at 1.936 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease as the company adjusted its cash collection pace [2][4]