Group 1 - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise collectively on September 22, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) closed down 1.22% with a trading volume exceeding 280 million yuan and a net subscription of 84 million units [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF has experienced a net inflow of funds for four consecutive days, accumulating 74.35 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF closely tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, which selects stocks from the beverage, packaged food, and meat industries [1] - Major holdings in the Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF include leading companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Yili, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao [1] - Huachuang Securities emphasizes the importance of bottom-catalysts in the liquor sector, suggesting that traditional consumption is entering a phase of accumulation [1] Group 3 - Guoyuan Securities recommends closely monitoring the pricing and sales dynamics in the liquor sector as the Double Festival approaches, focusing on high-end liquor companies with strong brand and channel capabilities [2] - The beer industry is noted for its stable competitive landscape, while segments like snacks and energy drinks are experiencing high demand [2] - The dairy sector shows signs of stabilization in raw milk prices, with leading dairy companies demonstrating resilience [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the food and beverage industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The A-share food and beverage industry has seen a decline of 1.48% over the past two weeks, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.68 percentage points and the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.29 percentage points [1][11] - In the sub-sectors, processed food (+0.71%) and soft drinks (+0.39%) have increased, while snacks (-5.82%), other alcoholic beverages (-3.70%), and baked goods (-3.23%) have experienced significant declines [1][11] - Key stocks such as Qianwei Yangchu (+21.28%), Richen Co. (+14.10%), and Weizhi Xiang (+10.87%) have shown notable gains, while Kweichow Moutai (-13.07%), Ziyan Food (-11.79%), and Jiahe Food (-11.54%) have faced substantial losses [1][11] Summary by Sections Market Review - The A-share food and beverage industry has declined by 3.37% year-to-date, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 17.35 percentage points and the Shenzhen Component Index by 28.88 percentage points [11] - The total retail sales in August reached 396.68 billion yuan, growing by 3.4% year-on-year, with a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to July [3][54] Key Data Tracking - The price of Feitian Moutai has decreased by 30 yuan for original boxes and 40 yuan for loose packaging compared to two weeks ago, with current prices at 1,830 yuan and 1,800 yuan respectively [2][26] - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.03 yuan per kilogram, down 3.5% year-on-year [34] Key Events Tracking - The national standard for sterilized milk has been revised, prohibiting the addition of reconstituted milk in long-term pure milk [3][54] - The snack brand Mingming Hen Mang has surpassed 20,000 stores, becoming the first in the domestic leisure food and beverage chain industry to achieve this milestone [3][54] Investment Recommendations - In the liquor sector, it is advised to closely monitor price trends and sales performance, focusing on high-end liquor companies with strong brand and channel capabilities such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [7][56] - For consumer goods, the beer industry remains stable, and there is high demand in segments like snacks and energy drinks [7][57]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is experiencing a mixed performance as it enters the peak season, with demand showing improvement on a month-over-month basis but still facing a 10-20% shortfall year-over-year [1] Industry Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.07% to 3822.59 points, while the liquor sector closed at 2294.54 points, down 1.01% [1] - A total of 19 liquor stocks declined, with Shede Liquor leading the drop at 3.08% [1] - Major liquor companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe Brewery saw varying stock price changes, with Kweichow Moutai closing at 1457.00 CNY per share, down 0.75% [1][1][1] Company Insights - According to a report from China Merchants Securities, the liquor industry is entering a peak season with overall feedback being tepid [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on supply-side changes at the enterprise level during this adjustment period, as leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are sending positive signals [1] - As the peak season unfolds, the direction of industry clearing will become clearer, and the bottom of the market will become increasingly evident [1]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Baijiu Industry Industry Overview - The overall sales volume in the baijiu industry has declined, with distributors expecting a 20%-30% drop in sales during the upcoming double festival period. Sales volume decreased by 40%-50% in July and August [1][2] - High-end baijiu wholesale prices are weak, with Feitian Moutai priced around 1,780 RMB. Demand for baijiu in banquet scenarios remains stable, while mid-range products perform more consistently [1][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Sales Performance**: The baijiu industry is facing significant sales pressure, with actual sales declines exceeding previous market expectations. Most regions, except for Henan, are experiencing sales drops greater than anticipated [2] - **Inventory Levels**: From June to August, the average sales volume decreased by 50%, leading to a slight increase in inventory levels compared to last year. Most distributors have higher inventory levels than the same period last year [3] - **Price Trends**: High-end baijiu products like Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye are experiencing weak wholesale prices. Feitian Moutai's price is expected to fluctuate between 1,700 and 1,800 RMB during the double festival period [4][8] - **Company Performance Adjustments**: Guizhou Moutai has lowered its annual growth target but maintains a steady collection rate compared to last year. Wuliangye is also expected to adjust its growth target due to market conditions [6][9] Company-Specific Insights - **Guizhou Moutai**: The company is increasing promotional activities for its series of products and expects a slight downward adjustment in annual growth targets, which may benefit investors by releasing risks [8] - **Wuliangye**: The company is shifting its focus from absolute growth to long-term competitiveness, with a return rate of approximately 60%-70% [9][10] - **Luzhou Laojiao**: The company is implementing a price stabilization strategy and focusing on expanding its terminal market through targeted promotions [11] - **Shanxi Fenjiu**: The company is facing significant sales declines but is maintaining a stable price point due to good relationships with distributors [13] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with potential for policy-driven growth and those that can adapt to market changes, such as Jiu Gui, She De, and Shui Jing Fang. Mid-range products like Gu Qing Gong and Ying Jia Gong are also highlighted for their recovery potential [5][7] - The overall sentiment is that the baijiu industry is currently at a low point, but there are opportunities for recovery and growth in specific segments and companies [27] Additional Considerations - The impact of external factors, such as government inspections and coal supply pressures, has affected consumption patterns in various regions [12][14] - The performance of next-tier baijiu products is weaker compared to high-end and mid-range products, indicating a need for careful monitoring of new product launches [21] This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed in the conference call regarding the baijiu industry, highlighting both challenges and potential investment opportunities.

Core Insights - The article highlights the successful internationalization strategy of Wuliangye, showcasing its cultural and culinary integration at the 2025 Osaka Expo and its new restaurant openings in Singapore and Japan [4][12][15] Group 1: Event Highlights - The Wuliangye-themed day at the Osaka Expo has attracted significant attention, with daily visitor numbers reaching new highs [1] - The opening of the second overseas authorized restaurant, "Shinryugin," in Osaka, coincided with the Wuliangye-themed activities, enhancing brand visibility [1][9] - The Singapore Wuliangye restaurant opened on September 17, 2023, in the Bugis area, a hub for diverse culinary experiences [3][11] Group 2: Cultural Integration - Wuliangye is leveraging high-profile international events and localized experiences to deepen its cultural narrative and consumer engagement [4][13] - The immersive cultural experiences at the Osaka Expo, including interactive art and themed exhibits, aim to create lasting impressions of Chinese culture [6][8] - The Singapore restaurant features a blend of Chinese and local culinary elements, enhancing the dining experience and cultural resonance [11][12] Group 3: Strategic Approach - Wuliangye's strategy combines high-energy international platforms with localized market penetration, aiming for a sustainable global presence [4][13][15] - The brand's approach emphasizes a "standardized core with localized operations," allowing for adaptability while maintaining brand integrity [15] - The company aims to redefine the international perception of Chinese liquor, positioning it alongside global counterparts like French wine and Scotch whisky [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the internationalization strategy of Wuliangye, showcasing its efforts to integrate Chinese culture with local markets through high-profile events and localized dining experiences, particularly in Japan and Singapore [1][3][11]. Group 1: Event Participation and Cultural Exchange - The 2025 Osaka Expo has seen a surge in daily visitor numbers, with the China Pavilion, featuring Wuliangye, receiving positive feedback for its innovative cultural presentations [1]. - Wuliangye's "Five Grains Liquor Theme Day" at the Osaka Expo included immersive cultural experiences, such as sand painting and interactive elements, enhancing visitor engagement [4][7]. - The opening of Wuliangye's second overseas authorized restaurant, "Shinryugin" in Osaka, marks a significant step in its international expansion strategy [8][10]. Group 2: Localization Strategy - Wuliangye's approach emphasizes deep localization, adapting its offerings to resonate with local tastes and cultural preferences, as seen in its Singapore restaurant that combines Chinese and local culinary elements [10][11]. - The Singapore Wuliangye restaurant, located in a vibrant food district, aims to enhance brand recognition and consumer engagement through tailored dining experiences [10][11]. - The brand's strategy includes creating immersive experiences that allow international consumers to appreciate the cultural significance of Chinese liquor [7][11]. Group 3: Brand Positioning and Future Outlook - Wuliangye's participation in high-profile international events serves as a platform for global exposure, reinforcing its status as a representative of Chinese liquor [11][13]. - The brand's model of "standardized core + localized operation" provides a replicable framework for other Chinese liquor companies aiming for international markets [13]. - The article suggests that Wuliangye's internationalization efforts could position Chinese liquor alongside globally recognized beverages like French wine and Scotch whisky in the future [13].

Core Insights - The event "Big Shots Talk Sichuan Liquor" highlighted the cultural and technical significance of Wuliangye's solid-state distillation process, emphasizing its innovative approach to using five grains in production [1][2][4] Group 1: Technical Aspects - Wuliangye is the world's first distilled liquor made from five different grains, showcasing innovation in both raw material composition and the entire brewing process [2] - The unique flavor profile of Wuliangye is attributed to the diverse nutrients provided by the five grains, which enhance the microbial activity in the fermentation process, resulting in a harmonious taste [3] - The ancient fermentation pits used for over 700 years contribute to a rich microbial community, creating a unique flavor that cannot be replicated [3] Group 2: Cultural Significance - The concept of "He Mei" (harmony and beauty) in Wuliangye reflects the Chinese philosophy of diversity and cooperation, contrasting with Western spirits that often focus on single ingredients [4][6] - Wuliangye embodies the wisdom of Chinese agricultural civilization, representing the integration of various elements to create new value [4] - The grains used in Wuliangye originate from major agricultural centers worldwide, symbolizing a blend of global cultural exchanges [5][6] Group 3: Future Directions - Wuliangye aims to promote its "He Mei" value concept globally, fostering cultural exchange and industry collaboration while advancing its own development [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly in the liquor segment, suggesting a bottoming process for the industry and structural opportunities for food companies as they navigate the September peak season [2][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for patience regarding the industry's fundamentals, particularly in the liquor sector, which is expected to experience a bottoming phase. It highlights the recovery of consumption scenarios in September and the importance of monitoring demand recovery during the peak season [2][6]. - Key recommendations include focusing on leading companies with long-term investment value, such as high-end liquor brands and major dairy and beer companies, which are expected to benefit from market rotation and gradually improving valuations [2][6]. - The report identifies structural growth opportunities in the food and beverage sector, driven by new retail formats and consumer trends towards health and convenience [2][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview of Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 2.53% last week, with liquor down 2.95%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.23 percentage points [5][33]. - The report ranks the food and beverage sector 25th among 31 sub-industries in terms of performance [5]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Segments - The liquor segment is under pressure, with key brands like Moutai and Wuliangye experiencing price declines, while the overall industry is entering a destocking phase [7][14]. - The report notes that the performance of the liquor segment is expected to improve in September, but year-on-year comparisons still show significant pressure [7][14]. 3. Recommendations for Key Companies - Recommended companies include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao in the liquor sector, and Yili, New Dairy, and Tsingtao Brewery in the consumer goods sector [2][6]. - The report also highlights the potential for growth in snack foods, low-alcohol beverages, and drinks driven by new consumer trends [2][6]. 4. Price Trends and Cost Changes - Moutai's bottle price is reported at 1755 yuan, down 25 yuan week-on-week, while Wuliangye remains stable at around 840 yuan [7][14]. - The average price of fresh milk is 3.03 yuan per kilogram, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.50% [30]. 5. Structural Opportunities and Challenges - The report indicates that the dairy sector is expected to benefit from cost reductions and improved supply-demand dynamics, while the beer industry remains stable [8][30]. - It warns of increasing competition in certain segments due to slow demand recovery, particularly in ambient milk and snacks [8][30].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Osaka Expo serves as a significant platform for Wuliangye to showcase its brand and cultural heritage, emphasizing its internationalization strategy through various marketing initiatives and partnerships [2][4][22]. Group 1: Brand Presentation at Expo - Wuliangye's participation in the "Wuliangye Theme Day" at the China Pavilion highlights its commitment to showcasing Chinese brewing culture and craftsmanship [6][12]. - The exhibition features a blend of product displays, cultural experiences, and artistic installations, effectively communicating the essence of Chinese brewing philosophy [4][8]. - A certificate from the National Museum of China recognizing the ancient mud from Wuliangye's historic brewing site underscores the brand's heritage and commitment to quality [6][8]. Group 2: International Expansion - Wuliangye is actively expanding its international presence through various initiatives, including the opening of authorized restaurants in Japan and Singapore [13][18]. - The newly opened Singapore Wuliangye restaurant serves as a cultural and culinary hub, integrating traditional Chinese aesthetics with modern dining experiences [20][21]. - The brand's strategy includes creating immersive cultural experiences that go beyond mere product sales, aiming to foster a deeper understanding of Chinese culture [22][27]. Group 3: Cultural Significance - Wuliangye's internationalization is not just about product export but also about cultural exchange and experience economy, promoting the "harmony" concept inherent in Chinese culture [22][27]. - The brand's activities, such as the "He Mei Global Tour," aim to convey the essence of Chinese culture and foster mutual appreciation among diverse civilizations [27][29]. - Wuliangye's commitment to quality and cultural representation positions it as a leading example of how Chinese brands can successfully navigate the global market [24][29].

9月17日，新加坡五粮液大酒家正式开业。当日，29°五粮液·一见倾心首次亮相海外。未来，五粮液将 以更加开放的姿态融入全球市场。 ...