Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 40.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.99%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.101 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [1] - The company expects stable profit growth in 2025, driven by improved pricing and operational efficiency [4][5] - The company has a diversified product range and a strong integrated supply chain, which enhances its resilience against market fluctuations [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 9.751 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% quarter-on-quarter and 5.71% year-on-year, with a net profit of 642 million yuan, down 8.32% quarter-on-quarter and 32.31% year-on-year [1][2] - The total sales volume for paper products in 2024 was 7.51 million tons, an increase of 12.76% year-on-year, while pulp sales remained flat at 1.46 million tons [2] Product Analysis - Revenue breakdown for 2024 includes cultural paper at 13.0 billion yuan (down 2.3%), coated paper at 4.13 billion yuan (up 17.9%), and corrugated boxboard at 10.93 billion yuan (up 11.5%) [2] - The average price for dissolving pulp in Q4 2024 was 7,742 yuan per ton, with expectations for stable profitability in the domestic market [3] Operational Strategy - The company is optimizing its production capacity, with a total capacity exceeding 12 million tons in 2024, and plans for new production lines in 2025 [5] - The relocation of the dissolving pulp production line is expected to enhance cost efficiency and profitability starting in Q2 2025 [4] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 43.178 billion yuan, 49.892 billion yuan, and 52.912 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.02%, 15.55%, and 6.05% [12] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 3.6 billion yuan, 4.14 billion yuan, and 4.559 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 16.08%, 15.01%, and 10.13% [12]

废纸系：2024H2 公司箱板纸实现收入57.29 亿元（同比+9.2%），毛利率为15.8%（（ 环比+1.2pct）。 24Q4 箱板纸/瓦楞纸环比分别+1.1%/5.2%，国废均价环比+3.8%，废纸系旺季提价顺利落地，整体盈利 平稳改善。25Q1 箱板/瓦楞均价环比仍+1.5%/2.7%，尽管高价原材料入库驱动成本提升，但我们预计整 体盈利仍有望保持平稳。此外，中美贸易冲突背景下，公司高档牛卡有望加速国产替代，整体废纸价格 仍有改善预期。 南宁项目稳步推进，林浆纸一体化可期。2024 年底公司合计产能已突破 1200万吨，其中浆、纸产能分 别合计达 500 万吨和 729 万吨。展望未来，公司预计1）山东基地：颜店3.7 万吨特种纸25 年4 月试产， 14 万吨特纸项目二期26H1 试产，兖州溶解浆产线搬迁25Q2 落地。2）广西基地：南宁PM11 和PM12 （高档包装纸纸）、15 万吨生活用纸项目均25Q4 试产；特种纸40 万吨、化学浆35 万吨、化机浆15 万 吨产线及相关配套措亦有望在25Q4 落地。此外，公司加速推进老挝林地种植（短期内公司预计每年新 增1 万公顷+林地种植面积），同时已 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 40.73 billion yuan (up 3.0% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.10 billion yuan (up 0.5% year-on-year) [1] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 9.75 billion yuan (down 5.7% year-on-year) and a net profit of 642 million yuan (down 32.3% year-on-year), indicating a challenging quarter [1] - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability in Q1 2025, driven by rising pulp prices and improved cost management [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 40.73 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 3.10 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year [6] - The gross profit margin for Q4 2024 was 14.9%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.2 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.0 percentage point [5] - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 3.61 billion yuan, 4.16 billion yuan, and 4.57 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.9X, 9.4X, and 8.6X [5][6] Segment Performance - In the wood pulp segment, the company reported revenues of 5.98 billion yuan for non-coated cultural paper and 2.01 billion yuan for coated paper in H2 2024, with respective year-on-year changes of -11.6% and +4.4% [2] - The waste paper segment saw revenues of 5.73 billion yuan for boxboard paper in H2 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.2% [3] - The company is advancing its integrated pulp and paper projects, with total capacity expected to exceed 12 million tons by the end of 2024 [4] Future Outlook - The company is set to trial production for several projects in 2025, including specialty paper and chemical pulp lines, which are expected to enhance production capacity [4] - The report highlights a stable cash flow and operational efficiency, with operating cash flow for Q4 2024 at 2.69 billion yuan, an increase of 1.72 billion yuan year-on-year [5]

| 市场数据 | 2025-4-10 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 002078.SZ | | A 股收盘价(元) | 14.00 | | 上证指数 | 3,223.64 | | 总股本(万股) | 279,454 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 276,488 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 387.08 | -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-04 2024-05 2024-06 2024-07 2024-08 2024-09 2024-10 2024-11 2024-12 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 太阳纸业 沪深300 ⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫ 国银河证券|CGS 公司点评报告 · 轻工行业 主要财务指标预测 E券|CGS 附录: 公司财务预测表 | 资产负债表(百万元) | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 流动资产 | 12,762 | 14,314 | 17,734 | 21,221 | | 现金 | 3,234 | 4,07 ...

投资建议：上调盈利预测，维持"优于大市"评级。 证券研究报告 | 2025年04月10日 太阳纸业（002078.SZ） 优于大市 2024 年年报点评： 四季度盈利短期承压，期待产能释放驱动增长 四季度收入略降，利润短期承压，符合业绩预告。2024 年公司实现收入 407.3 亿/+2.99%，归母净利润 31.0 亿/+0.50%，扣非归母净利润 32.3 亿/+6.88%； 其中 2024Q4 实现收入 97.5 亿/-5.71%，归母净利润 6.4 亿/-32.31%，扣非 归母净利润 6.4 亿/-31.62%。2024 年收入微增主要系产能释放带来的销量增 加，全年纸制品销量同比+12.8%；利润受木浆成本波动影响，同时广西六景 全年固定资产清理减少利润约 1.92 亿，其中 2024Q4 影响约 968.1 万。2024 年拟每 10 股派发现金红利 3 元，分红率 27%。 Q4 文纸盈利承压、箱板纸受益于旺季提价盈利小幅改善。分产品看，2024H2 非涂布文化纸、牛皮箱板纸与溶解浆收入同比-11.6%/+9.2%/+32.2%，毛利 率为 7.9%/15.8%/27.0%，分别较 2024H ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed financial performance for 2024, with a slight increase in annual revenue but a decline in quarterly revenue and net profit, indicating challenges in the market environment [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company generated revenue of 9.75 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, and a net profit of 640 million, down 32% year-on-year [1]. - For the full year 2024, total revenue reached 40.73 billion, reflecting a 3% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 3.1 billion, up 1% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 16.0%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 7.6%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points [2]. Market and Product Insights - The company is focusing on cultivating new productive forces and promoting high-quality sustainable development amidst a challenging market environment [2]. - The revenue from cultural paper in 2024 was 13 billion, down 2.33% year-on-year, while the revenue from coated paper was 4.13 billion, up 17.86% year-on-year [2]. - The price of double glue paper and coated paper has increased by approximately 150 and 300 yuan per ton, respectively, since the beginning of 2025 [2]. Production and Capacity Expansion - The company has established three major production bases in Shandong, Guangxi, and Laos, enhancing its capacity and cost advantages through a "forest-pulp-paper integration" strategy [4]. - Significant projects are set to commence in 2025, including a new specialty paper project and upgrades to existing production lines, which are expected to enter trial production and operation stages throughout the year [4]. - The company plans to increase its planted area in Laos by over 10,000 hectares annually, which is anticipated to further strengthen its cost advantages [4]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 3.62 billion, 4.19 billion, and 4.78 billion for 2025-2027, respectively [5]. - The adjusted price-to-earnings ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 11X, 9X, and 8X, indicating a favorable long-term outlook [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 40.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 3.1 billion, up 1% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on cultivating new productive forces and promoting high-quality sustainable development in a challenging market environment [1] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in profitability due to rising pulp prices and expected domestic demand recovery [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 9.75 billion, down 6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 640 million, down 32% year-on-year [1] - For 2024, the gross margin is expected to be 16.0%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points, while the net profit margin is projected at 7.6%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points [1] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 3.62 billion, 4.19 billion, and 4.78 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11X, 9X, and 8X [5] Product Segments - Cultural paper revenue for 2024 is projected at 13 billion, down 2.33% year-on-year, while gross margin is expected to be 13.35%, a decrease of 3.28 percentage points [2] - The dissolving pulp segment is expected to see revenue of 4.1 billion in 2024, an increase of 11.77%, with a gross margin of 24.38%, up 8.3 percentage points [2] - The boxboard paper segment is projected to generate revenue of 10.93 billion in 2024, an increase of 11.47%, with a gross margin of 15.22%, down 0.48 percentage points [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company has established three major production bases in Shandong, Guangxi, and Laos, enhancing its capacity and cost advantages through a "forest-pulp-paper" integrated strategy [4] - Significant projects are set to commence in 2025, including a new specialty paper base and upgrades to dissolving pulp production lines [4] - The company plans to increase its plantation area in Laos by over 10,000 hectares annually, which is expected to further solidify its cost advantages [4]

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月10日 投资建议：上调盈利预测，维持"优于大市"评级。 考虑到公司新增产能主要在 2025 年底陆续投产，看好 2026 年业绩弹性。上 调盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润 33.6/39.5/41.4 亿元（前值 32.9/39.2/-亿），同比增速 8.4%/17.5%/4.9%，当前股价对应 PE=11/10/9 倍。公司显现出周期底部蓄力向上的特性，维持"优于大市"评级。 太阳纸业（002078.SZ） 优于大市 2024 年年报点评： 四季度盈利短期承压，期待产能释放驱动增长 四季度收入略降，利润短期承压，符合业绩预告。2024 年公司实现收入 407.3 亿/+2.99%，归母净利润 31.0 亿/+0.50%，扣非归母净利润 32.3 亿/+6.88%； 其中 2024Q4 实现收入 97.5 亿/-5.71%，归母净利润 6.4 亿/-32.31%，扣非 归母净利润 6.4 亿/-31.62%。2024 年收入微增主要系产能释放带来的销量增 加，全年纸制品销量同比+12.8%；利润受木浆成本波动影响，同时广西六景 全年固定资产清理减少利润约 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [19]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 40.727 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.99%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.101 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.50% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 3.235 billion yuan, up by 6.88% [3][5]. - The company demonstrated strong operational resilience with steady growth in core product categories, despite facing pressure in domestic demand for cultural and packaging paper in 2024 [4]. - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability driven by domestic demand recovery, with net profits projected to reach 3.48 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 12% year-on-year increase [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 16% and a net margin of 7.6%, with respective year-on-year changes of +0.12 and -0.2 percentage points. The gross margins for key product categories varied, with dissolving pulp achieving a margin of 24.4% [5]. - The company’s total liabilities decreased by 2.85 percentage points to 45.41% in 2024, indicating improved financial stability [5]. - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 7% for 2025, 6% for 2026, and 6% for 2027, with net profit growth rates of 12%, 14%, and 12% respectively [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady revenue growth for 2024, with total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 40.73 billion and 3.10 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 3.0% and 0.5% [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 9.75 billion and 640 million yuan, showing year-on-year declines of 5.7% and 32.3% [2] - The company's paper business generated revenues of 13.00 billion, 4.13 billion, 2.02 billion, 0.994 billion, and 10.93 billion yuan from non-coated cultural paper, coated paper, household paper, laminated base paper, and corrugated box paper, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -2.3%, +17.9%, -1.3%, -21.3%, and +11.5% [3] - The pulp business revenues were 1.60 billion, 4.10 billion, and 1.42 billion yuan from mechanical pulp, dissolving pulp, and chemical pulp, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -13.1%, +11.8%, and -18.9% [3] Group 2: Profitability - The overall gross margin for 2024 was stable at 16.0%, with Q4 2024 gross margin at 14.9%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.2 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.0 percentage points [4] - The gross margins for the paper business were 13.4%, 14.8%, 11.9%, and 15.2% for non-coated cultural paper, coated paper, household paper, and corrugated box paper, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.3, +2.0, -2.5, and +0.5 percentage points [4] - The gross margins for the pulp business were 22.7%, 24.4%, and 19.8% for mechanical pulp, dissolving pulp, and chemical pulp, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.6, +8.3, and +2.3 percentage points [4] Group 3: Cost Management - The company’s expense ratio for 2024 was 6.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 0.4%, 2.4%, 1.9%, and 1.8%, respectively [5] - In Q4 2024, the expense ratio was 6.7%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 0.5%, 2.6%, 1.5%, and 2.1%, respectively [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - In 2025, the company plans to launch several projects, including a 37,000-ton specialty paper base material project and a dissolving pulp production line relocation project, which will enhance the synergy among its three major bases [7] - By the end of 2025, the company aims to complete the first and second phases of the integrated "forest-pulp-paper" project in the Nanning area, facilitating resource integration and optimization of product structure and logistics [7]