Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment in 2024, characterized by declining production and sales, sluggish terminal movement, shrinking consumption scenarios, and insufficient consumer confidence, leading to price inversions for many products [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The liquor industry is facing significant challenges, with inventory issues becoming prominent and leading major companies to halt shipments to stabilize pricing [1] - The number of liquor companies experiencing revenue declines has increased from 2 in 2023 to 6 in 2024, indicating a growing divide between leading and smaller enterprises [2] Group 2: Revenue Performance - In 2024, 19 listed liquor companies achieved a total revenue of 441.94 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.67% compared to 2023, but with a notable slowdown in revenue growth [2] - The median revenue growth rate for these companies dropped to 3.69% in 2024 from 18.04% in the previous year [2] - The top three companies with the highest revenue growth rates are Jinhuijiu (18.59%), Gujinggongjiu (16.41%), and Guizhou Moutai (15.66%) [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Guizhou Moutai generated revenue of 174.14 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 39.4% of the total revenue of listed liquor companies, an increase of nearly 3 percentage points [2] - Yanghe's revenue fell by 12.83% to 28.88 billion yuan, causing it to drop out of the 30 billion yuan club [4] - Jiugui Jiu's revenue declined nearly 50% in 2024 after a 30% drop in 2023, highlighting severe channel issues [4] Group 4: Revenue Rankings - The revenue rankings for 2024 show Guizhou Moutai leading with 174.14 billion yuan, followed by Wuliangye with 89.18 billion yuan, and Shanxi Fenjiu with 36.01 billion yuan [5] - Companies like Jiugui Jiu and Jinzongzi Jiu are experiencing significant revenue declines, with Jiugui Jiu's revenue dropping to 1.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 49.70% [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" from "Buy" [1][8] Core Viewpoints - The company reported a revenue of 28.876 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 12.83% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.673 billion yuan, down 33.37% year-on-year, which aligns with market expectations [2] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.066 billion yuan, a decline of 31.92% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.637 billion yuan, down 39.93% year-on-year, which fell short of market expectations [2] - The company is undergoing a strategic adjustment in response to industry pressures, focusing on sustainable development and shifting from aggressive growth to a more conservative approach [3] - The mid-to-high-end product lines, particularly the Blue Classic series, are significantly impacted, leading to a decline in revenue and profitability [4] - The company is committed to enhancing its distribution channels and maintaining a deep cultivation strategy both domestically and internationally [5] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout, with a total dividend of 7 billion yuan in 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 6.72%, one of the highest in the liquor sector [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 28.876 billion yuan and a net profit of 6.673 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year changes of -12.8% and -33.4% [9] - For 2025, revenue and net profit forecasts have been revised down to 24.778 billion yuan and 5.967 billion yuan, respectively [8][9] Market Strategy - The company is implementing quota control measures to stabilize prices and optimize supply-demand relationships for its main products [6] - A new high-end product, the Dream Blue Handcrafted Class, has been launched to target the local high-end market [7] Dividend Policy - The company has committed to a cash dividend of no less than 70% of its net profit for the years 2024-2026, ensuring a consistent high dividend yield [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" from "Buy" [1][8]. Core Views - The company is undergoing a strategic adjustment in response to industry pressures, leading to a decline in performance for 2024. The focus is on sustainable development and long-term strategies [3]. - The company's main product line, the Blue Classic series, is facing significant challenges in the mid-range and sub-premium segments, contributing to revenue declines [4]. - Despite the challenges, the company maintains a high dividend yield of 6.72%, positioning it favorably within the liquor sector [7]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 28.876 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.83%, and a net profit of 6.673 billion yuan, down 33.37%. The Q1 2025 results showed revenue of 11.066 billion yuan, down 31.92%, and a net profit of 3.637 billion yuan, down 39.93% [2]. Analysis and Judgment - The decline in performance is attributed to industry pressures and the company's proactive adjustments, which include controlling shipment rhythms to manage inventory levels [3]. - The mid-to-high-end product lines have been significantly impacted, with revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and regular liquor decreasing by 14.79% and 0.49%, respectively [4]. - The company's gross margin has declined due to fixed production costs not being reduced in line with revenue drops, leading to increased per-ton costs [4]. Investment Recommendations - The company plans to maintain control over its main products through quota management and optimize supply-demand relationships. The introduction of the seventh generation of the Hai Zhi Lan product is expected to enhance market presence [6]. - The company has launched a new high-end product, the Dream Blue Handcrafted Class, targeting the local high-end market, which is expected to open new growth avenues [7]. - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards, with expected revenues of 24.778 billion yuan and 24.817 billion yuan, respectively, and net profits of 5.967 billion yuan and 6.060 billion yuan [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a phase of intense competition, with companies experiencing a slowdown in growth and adjusting their strategies for more sustainable development [2][21]. Financial Performance - In 2024, 21 listed liquor companies generated revenue of 443.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.63%, and a net profit of 168.08 billion yuan, up 7.01% [2]. - Only five companies achieved double-digit growth in both revenue and net profit in 2024, down from 15 the previous year [3][4]. - Guizhou Moutai led the industry with a revenue increase of 15.71% to 170.90 billion yuan and a net profit growth of 15.38% to 86.23 billion yuan [4][5]. Market Trends - The industry is experiencing a shift towards "volume competition," where stronger brands are consolidating their market positions while weaker brands struggle [2][21]. - Companies are increasing their marketing expenditures to maintain market share, with 12 out of 21 companies raising their sales expenses in 2024 [10][11]. Sales and Profitability - The highest increase in sales expenses was seen in Wuliangye, which spent 10.69 billion yuan, a 37.15% increase [11]. - Several companies, including Yanghe and Jiugui, reported declines in both revenue and net profit, indicating a challenging market environment [7][18]. Inventory and Contract Liabilities - Inventory levels are rising across most companies, with Water Well's inventory increasing by 31.13% to 3.22 billion yuan, highlighting the ongoing challenge of inventory management [15]. - Contract liabilities showed a mixed trend, with some companies like Gujing Gongjiu seeing a significant increase of 150.86% [14]. Future Outlook - For 2025, companies are setting more flexible growth targets, with many aiming for single-digit growth rates [18][20]. - The market is expected to continue evolving, with a focus on high-quality development and sustainable growth strategies [20][21].

从中证全指食品、饮料与烟草指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比61.17%、深圳证券交易 所占比38.83%。 从中证全指食品、饮料与烟草指数持仓样本的行业来看，白酒占比47.83%、调味品与食用油占比 12.10%、乳制品占比12.04%、其他食品占比7.46%、软饮料占比6.48%、啤酒占比4.76%、休闲食品占比 4.02%、肉制品占比3.31%、葡萄酒及其他占比1.33%、黄酒占比0.66%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。遇临时调整时，当中证全指指数调整样本时，中证全指行业指数样 本随之进行相应调整。在样本公司有特殊事件发生，导致其行业归属发生变更时，将对中证全指行业指 数样本进行相应调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形 的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 据了解，为反映中证全指指数样本中不同行业公司证券的整体表现，为投资者提供分析工具，将中证全 指指数样本按中证行业分类 ...

白酒：1190亿元分红创新高 所谓冰，是整个白酒板块上市企业2024年净利润增速普遍下滑；而所谓火，则是2024年年度行业分红总金额高达1190亿元，逆势创下历史新高。 在行业竞争不断加剧的背景下，白酒这张高分红的"牌"能否达到想要的效果？从2024年第四季度与2025年一季度基金的持仓态度来看，机构投资者的信心已 然回暖。 随着2024年年报披露完毕，白酒企业2024年派发"红包"金额也随之出炉，由于多家头部酒企增加了分红频次，最终让白酒企业2024年全年分红总金额定格在 1190亿元，分红总金额同比增长近10%，而整个行业股息支付率也达到71.34%，仅次于2022年的74.28%，排在历史第二。 | 年度 | 归母净利润(亿元) | 现金分红总额(亿元) | 股息支付率 | 分红公司数量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2024 | 1,668.48 | 1.190.26 | 71.34% | 17 | | 2023 | 1.550.59 | 1.094.86 | 70.61% | 16 | | 2022 | 1.304.73 | 969.19 | 74.28% ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the increase in investment hotspots has weakened the performance of consumer stocks in China [1] - The consumer sector is experiencing slow growth, with a lack of fundamental catalysts in the short term, although long-term asset revaluation logic remains intact [8] Industry Overview - In April 2025, five out of eight tracked industries maintained positive growth, while two experienced negative growth and one remained flat. The industries with single-digit growth included dairy (+3.4%), dining (+3.1%), soft drinks (+2.7%), condiments (+2.3%), and frozen foods (+1.5%). The declining sectors were mass-market and below liquor (-10.7%) and mid-to-high-end liquor (-1.5%), with the beer industry remaining flat [3][10] - The revenue for the high-end liquor sector in April was 26.4 billion yuan, down 1.5% year-on-year, while the cumulative revenue for the first four months was 167 billion yuan, up 0.3% year-on-year [12] - The mass-market liquor sector saw a revenue of 15 billion yuan in April, down 10.7% year-on-year, with a cumulative revenue of 75.2 billion yuan for the first four months, down 13.9% year-on-year [13] - The beer industry reported a revenue of 14 billion yuan in April, remaining flat year-on-year, with a cumulative revenue of 60.6 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.2% [14] Price Trends - In April, the wholesale prices of high-end liquor such as Feitian Moutai continued to decline, with prices for whole boxes and individual bottles down by 70 yuan compared to the previous month [4][22] - The prices of most high-end liquor remained stable, while mid-range and lower-end liquor prices saw more declines than increases [12][13] Cost Analysis - The cost indices for various products in April showed increases for beer (+2.69%), frozen foods (+1.67%), dairy (+1.09%), while condiments (-0.12%), instant noodles (-0.18%), and soft drinks (-1.58%) experienced declines [5] - The prices of packaging materials varied, with aluminum can prices rising by 8.37% year-on-year, while glass, plastic, and pulp prices fell by 23.17%, 20.90%, and 4.59% respectively [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests waiting for the right opportunity to increase positions in consumer stocks, particularly in the dairy sector, soft drinks, and liquor, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting employment trends in the beer and liquor industries during the current adjustment period, highlighting that while beer companies have reduced their workforce significantly, liquor companies, particularly leading brands, have increased their employee numbers despite facing revenue declines [2][11]. Employment Trends in Beer Industry - Over the past year, the beer industry has seen a reduction of over 6,000 employees across 10 listed companies, with major players like Budweiser APAC and China Resources Beer each reducing their workforce by over 1,000 [5][8]. - The overall employment in the beer sector has decreased to below 300,000, primarily due to declining sales and revenue in the industry [2][5]. - The reduction in workforce is attributed to decreased demand for production and sales roles, particularly for temporary workers during peak seasons [8][9]. Employment Trends in Liquor Industry - In contrast, the liquor industry has experienced an increase of over 3,900 employees, with only 7 out of 22 listed liquor companies reporting reductions [9][12]. - Leading liquor companies such as Kweichow Moutai and Yanghe Brewery have added over 1,000 employees each, indicating a robust demand for production roles [9][12]. - The increase in employment is partly driven by the need to meet production demands and the social responsibility of state-owned enterprises to maintain employment levels [12][13]. Salary Adjustments - While the overall employment levels in liquor companies have increased, there has been a notable reduction in executive compensation, with many high-ranking officials seeing salary cuts of hundreds of thousands [16][17]. - In contrast, the average salary for non-executive employees has remained stable or even increased in some companies, such as Water Well and Kweichow Moutai, which reported a rise in average non-executive salaries [20][21]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the current adjustment period for the liquor industry is not yet over, and further developments in cost-cutting measures and employee compensation will need to be monitored [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry, indicating a positive outlook for the mid-term [1]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing continued pressure, with a focus on quality over speed in growth. The recovery in demand is showing signs of being uneven, leading companies to prioritize prudent growth strategies [12][18]. - The high-end liquor segment is seeing stable pricing control, while the mid-range segment is under pressure, indicating a divergence in performance across different price tiers [1][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Demand Recovery and Quality Focus - The liquor sector's revenue for FY 2024 grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 7.2%. For Q1 2025, revenue growth slowed to 2.3% and net profit to 2.6% [12][18]. - Consumer confidence remains weak, particularly in the mid to low-end segments, while high-end banquet consumption is showing signs of recovery from a low base [12][18]. 2. Revenue Trends - Revenue growth is gradually bottoming out, with increasing differentiation among companies. The high-end segment remains relatively stable, while the mid-range segment faces significant challenges [18][27]. - The report highlights that many liquor companies are tightening control over distributors and focusing on core products to drive sales [18][27]. 3. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for the liquor sector in FY 2024 was 82.93%, a slight increase from the previous year. However, many companies are facing pressure on their gross margins due to pricing and product mix challenges [2][3]. - Sales and management expense ratios have seen slight increases, indicating a cautious approach to spending amid a challenging market environment [2][3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading liquor companies are expected to show resilient growth, supported by effective channel management and digital tracking strategies. Companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are recommended for their solid performance and valuation safety margins [3][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a significant adjustment period, with major companies reporting "growth under pressure" in their financial results for 2024 and Q1 2025, highlighting increased competition and market concentration [1][4]. Industry Overview - The white liquor industry is described as facing intensified competition, with a shift from "incremental competition" to "stock competition," leading to a consensus among leading companies that "value reconstruction" will be the main battleground moving forward [1][4]. - The production capacity of white liquor has decreased from a peak of 13.58 million kiloliters in 2016 to 4.145 million kiloliters in 2024, a decline of over 60% [4]. Company Strategies - Yanghe Distillery views 2024 as a year of adjustment, with major companies like Moutai and Wuliangye emphasizing stability in their growth targets, with Moutai setting a 9% growth target for 2025, down from the previous 15% [4][5]. - Yanghe Distillery has adopted a strategy of "active deceleration and inventory reduction," focusing on long-term stability rather than short-term sales growth [5][10]. Competitive Strength - Yanghe Distillery has built a robust product matrix covering all price ranges, which serves as a strong risk mitigation barrier, allowing the company to adapt to consumer segmentation trends and maintain stable operations amid industry fluctuations [5][10]. - The company is implementing six major initiatives to strengthen its foundation, including brand renewal, product optimization, and strategic market focus [8][9]. Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - Despite facing challenges in revenue and profit, Yanghe Distillery announced a cash dividend plan of 3.49 billion yuan, with a total cash dividend of 7 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [11][12]. - The company has maintained a consistent dividend policy since its listing in 2009, with cumulative dividends amounting to 56.34 billion yuan, representing 72% of its cumulative net profit since listing [11][12].