证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2025-032 截至本公告披露日，公司实际控制人曾超懿、曾超林合计直接持有及间接支 1 / 2 配公司股份共计 195,412.16 万股，占公司总股本的 42.00%，其中，通过锦隆能 源持有公司股份 91,317.54 万股，占公司总股本的 19.63%；石河子市锦隆能源产 业链有限公司可交换私募债质押专户（一期）中锦隆能源质押公司股票 21,000.00 万股，占公司总股本的 4.51%。进入换股期后，锦隆能源所持有的公司股份可能 因债券持有人选择换股而减少，假设本期可交换债券持有人持有的可交换债券全 部以换股价用于交换公司股票，公司控股股东及实际控制人不会发生变化，亦不 会对公司治理结构及持续经营产生重大影响。 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 关于控股股东面向专业投资者非公开发行可交换公司债券 （第一期）进入换股期的提示性公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 2025 年 5 月 28 日，天山铝业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）收到 控股股东石河子市锦隆能源产业链有限公司（以下简称 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [11]. Core Views - The report highlights that the recent announcement by Trump to impose tariffs on the EU has increased global economic uncertainty, which supports a bullish trend in gold prices. Central banks continue to purchase gold, indicating a sustained long-term bullish outlook [3]. - For copper and aluminum, while there is a short-term weakness in downstream operations, the long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain tight, justifying a "Recommended" rating for both industries [11]. - Tin prices are expected to stabilize at a high level, with corporate profits projected to gradually increase, leading to a "Recommended" rating for the tin industry [11]. - Antimony prices are currently weak due to short-term demand decline, but long-term supply constraints are expected to support prices, hence a "Recommended" rating is maintained [11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) showed a monthly performance increase of 3.1%, a quarterly increase of 4.3%, and a yearly increase of 3.5%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [1]. Macroeconomic Indicators - China's real estate development investment from January to April decreased by 10.3%, while the industrial added value in April grew by 6.1%, exceeding expectations [4][28]. - The U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 52.3, significantly above the expected 49.9 [3][28]. Gold Market Data - The London gold price increased to $3342.65 per ounce, a rise of 3.48% from the previous week [32]. - SPDR Gold ETF holdings rose to 29.66 million ounces, an increase of 120,000 ounces [32]. Copper Market Data - LME copper closed at $9565 per ton, up by $52 from the previous week, while SHFE copper closed at 77,790 yuan per ton, down by 880 yuan [41]. - Domestic copper social inventory was reported at 139,900 tons, a decrease of 790 tons from the previous week [41]. Aluminum Market Data - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices rose to 20,400 yuan per ton, an increase of 170 yuan [42]. - The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises was reported at 56.0%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points [42]. Tin and Antimony Market Data - Domestic refined tin prices were reported at 265,070 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 370 yuan [43]. - Antimony ingot prices were reported at 220,500 yuan per ton, down by 2,000 yuan [43].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic, with a recommendation to buy [3][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights the production elasticity and profit elasticity of electrolytic aluminum companies, indicating that profitability will be a key competitive factor due to fixed production capacity [8]. - The report predicts a decrease in the volatility of alumina prices in 2025, which will enhance the profitability of companies like Yun Aluminum, Shenhuo, and Tianshan [8]. - The report provides forecasts for gold production from listed companies, with specific attention to the CAGR of production from 2024 to 2027 [10][11]. Summary by Sections Copper Industry - The report includes production data and forecasts for major copper companies, emphasizing the importance of proprietary mining data [6]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The report details the production capacity and market valuation of various electrolytic aluminum companies, noting that the lowest market value per ton of aluminum is approximately 21,000 RMB [8][9]. Gold Industry - The report presents a forecast of self-produced gold output for listed companies, with specific figures for total gold resources and market capitalization [10][11]. Lithium Industry - The report outlines the lithium resource rights and production forecasts for several companies, highlighting significant growth rates for companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Yongxing Materials [12]. Uranium Industry - The report discusses the production forecasts for uranium companies, particularly focusing on China General Nuclear Power Corporation, with a projected CAGR of 8.16% from 2024 to 2027 [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The aluminum industry is expected to benefit from favorable domestic policies and supply disruptions in Guinea affecting bauxite supply, leading to potential price increases and inventory reductions [6][9] - The report highlights that the aluminum industry is likely to experience a sustained "de-inventory + price increase" trend, supported by improving export conditions and limited supply growth [9] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of May 23, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2466.0 per ton, while the Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was ¥20155.0 per ton [19] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was ¥20400.0 per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of ¥170.0 [19] 2. Production - In April 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 360.6 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.8 million tons but a year-on-year increase of 2.5 million tons [51] - The production of alumina in April 2025 was 708.4 million tons, down 46.6 million tons month-on-month but up 30.2 million tons year-on-year [51] 3. Inventory - As of May 22, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 557,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 24,000 tons [6] - The inventory of aluminum rods was 130,800 tons, down 740 tons week-on-week, remaining at a three-year low [6] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include Shenhuo Co., China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [5]

Core Insights - The high-pressure cleaning machine market in China is experiencing steady growth, with the market size projected to increase from 1.937 billion yuan in 2018 to 3.02 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.68% [1][13] - The demand for high-pressure cleaning machines is diversifying due to rising living standards and changing consumer perceptions, which will further expand the market [1][13] - The industry is characterized by a complete supply chain, including upstream raw material supply, midstream manufacturing, and downstream applications across various sectors [7] Industry Overview - High-pressure cleaning machines utilize a power-driven high-pressure pump to generate high-pressure water for cleaning surfaces, making them an efficient and environmentally friendly cleaning solution [3] - The machines can be categorized based on the driving engine (electric, gasoline, diesel), usage (household, commercial, industrial), and water temperature (cold, hot, or both) [3] Industry Development History - The Chinese high-pressure cleaning machine industry has evolved through four stages: initial imitation of imported equipment, expansion with domestic innovation, technological upgrades, and a focus on high-quality development driven by carbon neutrality goals [5] Industry Chain - The industry chain includes upstream raw materials (plastics, steel, aluminum alloys), midstream manufacturing, and downstream applications in household, automotive, construction, food processing, and municipal sectors [7] Market Trends - The global high-pressure cleaning machine market is projected to reach approximately 3.195 billion yuan by 2024, driven by industrialization and urbanization [12] - The application of high-pressure cleaning machines is expanding into various sectors, including vehicle washing, building maintenance, and municipal cleaning, due to their efficiency and environmental benefits [24] Competitive Landscape - The industry is fragmented, with domestic manufacturers transitioning from OEM to ODM and OBM models, enhancing their competitive edge [16][18] - Key players include Greenfield Machinery, Zhejiang Danong, and others, with Greenfield's revenue from high-pressure cleaning machines expected to reach 1.085 billion yuan in 2024, a 70.06% increase [19][21] Future Development Trends - The industry is expected to see continued technological innovation, with a focus on high-performance materials and smart manufacturing processes [23] - The trend towards specialization, diversification, integration, and intelligence in high-pressure cleaning machines will cater to specific market needs and enhance user experience [25]

Core Viewpoint - The Guinean government has revoked 51 mining licenses, including those for bauxite, gold, diamonds, graphite, and iron ore, which significantly impacts the global supply of bauxite, a critical raw material for aluminum production [2][3]. Group 1: Mining Policy Changes - Guinea, as the world's second-largest bauxite producer, holds about 25% of global reserves, making its mining policies crucial for the industrial metal market [2]. - The Axis mining area, which has a projected bauxite output of approximately 23 million tons in 2024, has been ordered to halt operations, raising concerns about supply shortages [2][3]. - The Guinean transitional authorities have designated several mining areas, including Axis, as strategic reserve zones, indicating a long-term suspension of mining activities [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The revocation of mining licenses has led to panic in the market regarding bauxite supply disruptions, particularly affecting Chinese imports, which account for over 60% of Guinea's bauxite exports [5]. - Following the announcement, the CIF price of Guinean bauxite dropped to $70 per ton, while domestic alumina futures prices surged, with the main contract reaching a limit-up increase of over 6% shortly after the news [5]. - The SMM alumina index rose to 2988.65 yuan per ton on May 19, reflecting a 3.19% increase from earlier in the month, indicating rising production costs for aluminum [6]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The increase in alumina prices is expected to compress profit margins for electrolytic aluminum producers in China, potentially impacting 45 million tons of production capacity [6]. - The changes in Guinea's mining policies are seen as a move to secure more benefits for the local government ahead of the upcoming elections in December 2025, reflecting a trend of resource nationalism [7]. - Chinese companies, such as Tianshan Aluminum, are adapting by securing local mining rights and establishing production capabilities in Guinea to mitigate risks associated with supply chain disruptions [7][8]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - The aluminum industry must navigate the risks posed by resource nationalism and the changing political landscape in Guinea, which could lead to increased operational uncertainties [8][9]. - Companies are advised to enhance their assessment of the impacts of mining policy changes on their operations and to diversify their resource acquisition strategies to ensure supply chain stability [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the aluminum industry, particularly in Xinjiang, due to its resource endowment and cost advantages, as well as the green transformation in energy [2][3]. Core Insights - Xinjiang is one of the main production areas for electrolytic aluminum in China, benefiting from low electricity costs due to abundant coal resources and low extraction costs [3][5]. - The rapid growth of new energy installations in Xinjiang supports the green transformation of the electrolytic aluminum industry, aligning with national carbon neutrality goals [3][4]. - The supply-demand dynamics for electrolytic aluminum are tightening, with limited future supply growth and increasing demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and electricity [4][6]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like Shenhuo Co. and Tianshan Aluminum, which are expected to benefit from cost improvements and stable performance [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Aluminum Industry Overview - Aluminum is a lightweight metal with extensive applications across various sectors, including automotive, construction, and electronics [13][15]. - The aluminum industry chain consists of bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum smelting, and downstream processing [14]. 2. Current Status and Development of Xinjiang's Aluminum Industry - Xinjiang has significant coal reserves, estimated at 2.19 trillion tons, which supports its position as a leading electrolytic aluminum production area [26][27]. - The region's electricity costs are among the lowest in China, making it attractive for aluminum production [3][5]. - The growth of new energy capacity in Xinjiang is expected to reach approximately 180 million kilowatts during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with renewable energy accounting for a significant portion of the power generation [30]. 3. Key Companies in Xinjiang's Aluminum Sector - Tianshan Aluminum and Shenhuo Co. are highlighted as key players in the industry, with strong operational performance and dividend stability [4][6]. - The report notes that Xinjiang's electrolytic aluminum production capacity has reached 17% of the national total, indicating significant growth in the sector [46].

Market Overview - On May 19, the non-ferrous aluminum sector experienced a localized rally, with companies such as Jiaozuo Wanfang hitting the daily limit, and others like Electric Power Investment Energy, Minfa Aluminum, Ningbo Fubang, Yiqiu Resources, and Tianshan Aluminum showing strong performance during the trading session [1] Company Highlights - Guangzhi Technology (300489.SZ) has turned a profit, specializing in high-performance aluminum alloy materials and machining components, with applications in nuclear power, aerospace, electronics, and rail transportation [2] - Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612.SZ) is a key electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Henan, utilizing large pre-baked electrolytic cell technology, with an annual electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 420,000 tons [2] - Electric Power Investment Energy (002128.SZ) is a leading electrolytic aluminum producer with a coal-electric-aluminum industry chain, operating an 860,000-ton electrolytic aluminum production line [2] - Meilixin (301307.SZ) has reported a loss, focusing on precision die-casting aluminum alloy components for communication base stations, and is recognized as a competitive player in this field [3] Industry Events - The aluminum oxide futures market saw a significant increase, with the main contract rising over 5% on May 19, following a production halt notification issued for a major mining project in Guinea, which could significantly impact aluminum ore supply [4] - The Axis mine, operated by Shunda Mining, Water Power No. 11 Bureau, and Gaoding International, is projected to produce 23.2 million tons of bauxite in 2024, with a planned output of 38-40 million tons in 2025. A shutdown could reduce supply by approximately 8 million tons compared to 2024 [5] - The concentration of mining operations in specific regions may lead to a reevaluation of ore prices, with potential price levels between $70 and $75 per ton, affecting domestic production costs [5] - Domestic spot prices remain firm due to tight supply in northern markets and production capacity issues at a major enterprise, with ongoing monitoring required for the sustainability of transactions following price increases [5]

Summary of Tianshan Aluminum Industry Conference Call Company Overview - Tianshan Aluminum has established an integrated industrial chain from bauxite to high-performance aluminum materials, supported by self-owned power plants and prebaked anodes, significantly reducing production costs, especially in electricity costs, which are far below the industry average, enhancing profitability [2][3] Key Points Industry Position and Advantages - Tianshan Aluminum benefits from low-cost energy in Xinjiang and overseas resource layouts, achieving self-sufficiency in raw materials, reducing dependence on external markets, and enhancing risk resistance [2][3] - The company has built production bases in resource-rich areas over 30 years, forming an integrated layout from bauxite to alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and downstream processing [3] Financial Performance - Revenue and profit are closely linked to zinc price indices, with net profit expected to grow significantly in 2024 [2][7] - The company maintains a low expense ratio of around 4% from 2020 to 2024, indicating efficient management [7] - In 2024, despite fluctuations in alumina prices affecting revenue and profit structure, the overall profitability remains stable due to the cost advantages of the electrolytic aluminum production base in Xinjiang [8] Production Capacity and Cost Structure - The company has a self-sufficient power generation capacity with six 350 MW generators, achieving an electricity self-sufficiency rate of 80%-90% and an average electricity cost of approximately 0.22 CNY per kWh, significantly lower than the industry average of 0.41 CNY [3][4] - Tianshan Aluminum has 2.5 million tons of alumina capacity in Guangxi and is building 2 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity in Indonesia, along with acquiring bauxite mining rights [9] Market Outlook - The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to experience a supply surplus in the first half of 2025, with prices fluctuating between 19,000 to 21,500 CNY per ton, and a potential shortage in 2026 [4][11] - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of around 5.2 billion CNY in 2025, with a current P/E ratio of about 7 times, lower than the industry average of 8 times, indicating investment potential [6][13] Risk Management - Tianshan Aluminum has effectively mitigated raw material price volatility risks through strategic acquisitions and resource management, ensuring stable profitability even amid market fluctuations [5][9] Future Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve scale profits of 5.16 billion CNY, 5.9 billion CNY, and 6.5 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7, 6, and 5.6, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of closely monitoring investment opportunities in strategic metals such as rare earths, especially following significant price increases in overseas markets due to China's export controls [8][13]. - In the steel sector, there has been a notable increase in rebar consumption and a slight rise in overall steel prices, indicating a positive trend in demand [14][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints: Focus on Strategic Metals - The report highlights the strategic importance of rare earth metals, particularly in light of recent U.S.-China trade discussions that aim to reduce tariffs, which could enhance global economic recovery [8][13]. - Following China's export restrictions on heavy rare earths, overseas prices have surged, with dysprosium and terbium prices in Europe increasing nearly threefold [8][13]. 2. Steel Sector: Price Trends - Rebar consumption has risen significantly, with a reported consumption of 2.6 million tons, marking a 21.69% increase week-on-week [14][18]. - The overall steel price index has seen a slight increase of 0.92%, with hot-rolled coil prices rising to 3,320 CNY/ton, a 1.40% increase, and cold-rolled prices at 3,767 CNY/ton, a 1.31% increase [14][38]. 3. New Energy Metals: Supply and Price Declines - Lithium production in April 2025 was reported at 70,640 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.38%, but with a slight month-on-month decline [15][42]. - Nickel production has seen a significant year-on-year decrease of 14.18%, while cobalt prices have shown a downward trend [15][44]. 4. Industrial Metals: Copper and Aluminum - Copper smelting fees have slightly increased, with the LME aluminum price settling at 2,474 USD/ton, reflecting a minor week-on-week rise of 0.20% [16]. - The production costs for electrolytic aluminum have decreased significantly, leading to increased profitability for producers [16][28]. 5. Precious Metals: Market Adjustments - Gold prices have experienced a notable decline of 3.72% week-on-week, attributed to reduced demand for safe-haven assets following positive developments in U.S.-China relations [17].